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Understanding Flux, from the Wettest Ecosystems to the Driest

EOS - Mon, 11/24/2025 - 12:51
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

Many ecosystems on Earth are affected by pulses of activity: temperature swings between seasons, incoming and outgoing tides, the yearly advent of rainy periods. These variations can play an important role in providing nutrients and other important inputs, but climate change often makes the amplitude of these pulses more extreme, with sometimes catastrophic results.

We need better data on the effects of changes to these pulses of activity, argues Lee. The author describes ongoing efforts to gather such data using the eddy covariance method, which measures exchanges between ecosystems and the atmosphere. The work focuses on fluxes in drylands and coastal blue carbon ecosystems—two ends of the dryness spectrum that are home to high levels of biodiversity and carbon storage and that are under increasing threats from climate change.

Scientists are gathering data from networks of flux towers, with plans to expand their data collection methods, for example, pairing mobile measuring devices with existing towers and synergizing flux data with other measurements. These strategies are increasingly important, the author notes, for assessing unconventional water inputs such as tides and condensation during dry conditions, as well as considering how disturbances like wildfire smoke and dust storms affect ecosystem function. The author argues that understanding how ecosystems are adapting to recent changes to these and other factors is crucial for refining Earth system models and constructing more accurate predictions of how ecosystems will adapt—or fail to adapt—in the future.

The author and his colleagues are also exploring the use of machine learning for Earth science endeavors and are pursuing hybrid approaches that combine process-based models with machine learning techniques. A key advantage of hybrid models is their usefulness in solving parameterization problems and the option to incorporate additional data sources, he notes. These advances could help unlock the potential of flux data to reveal crucial insights about our changing world. (Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JG009249, 2025)

—Nathaniel Scharping (@nathanielscharp), Science Writer

Citation: Scharping, N. (2025), Understanding flux, from the wettest ecosystems to the driest, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250438. Published on 24 November 2025. Text © 2025. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Polar ice melt offers unexpected solution to a global climate disaster

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 11/24/2025 - 12:00
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a system of Atlantic Ocean currents that redistributes heat and nutrients between the tropics and the North Atlantic, is one of the planet's tipping points. That means there is a critical threshold that, once crossed, could trigger abrupt, irreversible climate shifts.

Full Planet imagery of the 4 November 2025 landslide at Mae Moh Mine in Thailand

EOS - Mon, 11/24/2025 - 08:00

Over the weekend, Planet captured near-perfect images of the Mae Moh Mine landslide in Thailand.

Last week, I posted a set of Planet satellite images that captured most of the 4 November 2025 landslide at Mae Moh Mine in Thailand. However, there was considerable cloud in the imagery, which prevented a full understanding of the landslide. Over the last few days, near perfect conditions have allowed a full, cloud-free image to be captured by Planet:-

The aftermath of the 4 November 2025 landslide at Mae Moh Mine in Thailand. Image copyright Planet, captured on 22 and 23 November 2025, used with permission.

This image is a composite of two sets captured on 22 and 23 November 2025. The crown of the landslider is on the west side, with the failure moving towards the east.

I think there are twof interesting aspects to this landslide. The first is the light coloured material in the upper part of the landslide – this is the mine waste that was being deposited shortly before the failure. It is the dumping of this mine waste that is my primary hypothesis for the cause of this landslide.

The second is the configuration towards the toe of the landslide (on the east side of the image). This is the area in question:-

The lower part of the 4 November 2025 landslide at Mae Moh Mine in Thailand. Image copyright Planet, captured on 22 and 23 November 2025, used with permission.

I have placed a marker at a key point on the image. The main part of the landslide terminates in the area of the marker, but a smaller flow type failure has then developed from this point. This appears to have been quite mobile – note how a lobe has moved to the north. The main portion has moved generally eastward, with one lobe reaching the pond, and another moving towards the southwest. There are indications that this SW tending portion might have been the final movement. The distance from marker to toe is over 1,400 metres – this was a major event in its own right. I’m quite intrigued by this lower failure – was this saturated mine waste that failed through undrained loading, for example?

It is worth reiterating that the 4th November 2025 event is not the first major failure of waste at Mae Moh Mine – a 70 million cubic metre failure occurred on 18 March 2018. In fact, I wrote about that landslide too, back at the time of the failure. I included this quote, originally from The Nation:-

Maliwan Nakwirot, a resident living near the mine in Lampang, yesterday said a landslide in the area on Sunday was the result of misconduct by the mine operator, which had been piling excavated soil into unstable piles instead to storing it in abandoned mine pits.  It is not the first time that there have been landslides at Mae Moh mine. There have already been three major landslides at the mine since last year, as these mountains of soil are not stable and are ready to slide anytime,” Maliwan said.

Interesting! Finally, a brief note as to the scale of this landslide. It covers an area of about 5.7 km2 – this is extremely large. The 2018 failure covered an area of 1.56 km2 and had a volume of 70 million m3. The surface area of this failure is about 3.65 times as large. The volume is unlikely to scale in a linear manner, but might seem to indicate that the volume may exceed 100 million m3? To put that in context, the infamous 2013 Bingham Canyon landslide was “only” 55 million m3.

Reference

Planet Team 2025. Planet Application Program Interface: In Space for Life on Earth. San Francisco, CA. https://www.planet.com/

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2023. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

A rock physics model for predicting the velocities of isotropic sediments hosting heterogeneously distributed gas hydrates

Geophysical Journal International - Mon, 11/24/2025 - 00:00
SummaryElastic rock physics models are widely used to estimate the saturation of hydrate in isotropic sediments. However, for isotropic media, the influence of heterogeneously distributed hydrate on the P- and S-wave velocities remains unclear, leading to uncertainties in hydrate saturation estimates. To address this issue, in this work we proposed a double-solid-matrix model for predicting the velocities of sediments hosting heterogeneously distributed hydrates. A comparison of simulated velocities of our model and two rock physics schemes designed for homogeneous distributed hydrate (i.e. matrix-supporting and pore-floating models) show that, our model predicts higher S-wave velocity than matrix-supporting and pore-floating models, but yields similar P-wave velocity estimates as matrix-supporting model. We apply our model to two marine hydrate sites in the Cascadia margin: Site 1245 from Ocean Drilling Program Leg 204 and Site U1328 from International Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 311. Two locations yield similar results: velocity estimates from our model are much closer to downhole measurements than matrix-supporting and pore-floating models. Moreover, we estimate in situ hydrate saturation and clay concentration using our model, matrix-supporting model, and pore-floating model independently, and find that (i) hydrate saturations predicted by our model conform better with the saturations from chloride concentration and (ii) clay contents calculated by our model fit the best with results from smear slide analysis. This study demonstrates that our double-solid-matrix model can be an effective tool to understand the effect of heterogeneously distributed hydrates on velocities, as well as obtain accurate hydrate content in marine isotropic sediments.

Magma Dynamics and Subsurface Structures in the Hainan Volcanic Field, China, and the Relationship with Seismic Activity

Geophysical Journal International - Mon, 11/24/2025 - 00:00
SummaryThe Hainan volcanic field (HNVF) is one of China’s most active Holocene volcanic areas. Due to a lack of comprehensive geophysical research, questions persist regarding the deep magma system of the HNVF. For example, it is unclear whether the intense seismic activity in its eastern part may be a precursor to renewed volcanic activity. We present new three-dimensional electrical conductivity images, derived from magnetotelluric data, that provide a new understanding of the deep magma system in the HNVF. Our results reveal the presence of multiple sets of low-resistivity structures in both shallow and deep regions. Although once associated with past volcanic activity, a widespread shallow low-resistivity layer on the northwest side of the HNVF is not currently indicative of shallow magma chambers. Instead, a deeper large-volume low-resistivity structure in the western part of the HNVF may represent the current crustal magmatic plumbing system. Our analysis suggests that the intense seismic activity in the east of HNVF lacks corresponding low-resistivity structures, which indicates that there is no direct correlation between seismicity and movement of magma. Recent volcanic eruptions are primarily concentrated near the Changliu-Xiangou fault, which may indicate that the migration of magma has utilized crustal weak zones.

Forecasting Ionospheric foF2 based on a machine learning CNN-BiLSTM-MHA model

Publication date: Available online 18 November 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Jie Wu, Yuyang Huang, Shunzu Gao, Qian Pan, Yuhao Zheng, Qihui Jiang, Chao Xiong

Adaptive robust Kalman filter-based InSAR time series analysis for deformation monitoring

Publication date: Available online 18 November 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Yang Liu, Caijun Xu, Yangmao Wen

Enhancing Thermospheric Density Modeling Using Bias Factor Analysis

Publication date: Available online 18 November 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Yao Wu, Junyu Chen, Chusen Lin, Zijie Li, Yaobin Fang, Yu Wu

Real-time atmospheric precipitable water retrieval performance evaluation based on satellite-based Precise Point Positioning

Publication date: Available online 17 November 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Huizhong Zhu, Yunpeng Bai, Chunhua Jiang

Multi-Parameter GNSS Monitoring for Expansive Soil Hazards: A Case Study from Coastal Texas

Publication date: Available online 17 November 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Xiongchuan Chen, Shuangcheng Zhang, Yong Fang, Qingtao Zhang, Lidu Zhao, Peng An, Ning Liu, Qi Liu, Ningkang An, Jun Li, Zhilei Ye

Real-time estimation of inter-system bias with BDS-3 PPP-B2b by repairing the frequent jumps of satellite clock datum

Publication date: Available online 17 November 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Cancan Wang, Lin Pan

The deep sea and the Arctic must be included in efforts to tackle climate change

Phys.org: Earth science - Sun, 11/23/2025 - 01:00
This year's COP30 comes after the international Agreement on Marine Biological Diversity of Areas beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ) finally acquired the required number of ratification votes by United Nations member states.

When trade routes shift, so do clouds: Researchers uncover ripple effects of new global shipping regulations

Phys.org: Earth science - Sat, 11/22/2025 - 10:54
When militia attacks disrupted shipping lanes in the Red Sea, few imagined the ripple effects would reach the clouds over the South Atlantic. But for Florida State University atmospheric scientist Michael Diamond, the rerouting of cargo ships offered a rare opportunity to clarify a pressing climate question—How much do cleaner fuels change how clouds form?

Machine learning model sharpens snowfall forecasts for the Mountain West

Phys.org: Earth science - Sat, 11/22/2025 - 10:50
The varied topography of the Western United States—a patchwork of valleys and mountains, basins and plateaus—results in minutely localized weather. Accordingly, snowfall forecasts for the mountain West often suffer from a lack of precision, with predictions provided as broad ranges of inch depths for a given day or storm cycle.

Experiments on the complex conductivity signatures of pore pressure variations in soils

Geophysical Journal International - Sat, 11/22/2025 - 00:00
SummaryUnderstanding the effects of pore pressure changes on soil stability is important in geohazards and geotechnical studies. In situ measurements of PP are difficult at large scales. Geophysical methods can offer an indirect approach in understanding the effects of PP in soils. In this laboratory study, we investigate the complex conductivity (CC) signatures of soils undergoing increasing pore pressure inside a rigid cylinder. We experimented on different synthetic soil mixtures (with various clay percentages) as well as a natural soil sample collected from central Oklahoma, United States. We measured the CC response of the soil as we increased the pore pressure in small increments starting from atmospheric pressure up to 200 kPa. Our results show that the CC method is sensitive to changes in pore pressure values with imaginary conductivity magnitude increasing with increasing pore pressure for the samples containing clay minerals. The pure sand soil sample showed a less pronounced yet similar trend to clayey mixtures. The natural soil sample and samples with montmorillonite showed a direct relationship between imaginary conductivity and PP while real conductivity and PP showed an inverse relationship. In the samples without montmorillonite, we observed no changes in the characteristic relaxation time (τpeak) indicating no pore geometry changes in these samples. However, the samples with montmorillonite showed a direct linear relationship between PP and τpeak. Our findings indicate that under our controlled conditions, the CC measurements are sensitive to PP changes in clayey natural and synthetic soils, and although further research in the field with site-specific calibration, a wider spectrum of natural soil types and larger PP increments, is needed to validate our results; this is a starting point to evaluate the possible sensitivities of CC measurements to PP changes in earth materials.

Microseismicity Reveals Fault Activation and Fluid Processes Beneath the Neuwied Basin and Laacher See Volcano, East Eifel, Germany

Geophysical Journal International - Sat, 11/22/2025 - 00:00
SummaryThe Neuwied Basin within the East Eifel Volcanic Field (EEVF) is characterized by increased microseismicity, long hypothesized to be linked to the subsurface Ochtendung Fault Zone (OFZ). However, the source of this unrest remained elusive due to limited hypocenter resolution. Here, we present an extended local earthquake catalogue, compiled from a year-long Large-N deployment and a machine learning-based detection and location approach, including over 1,000 microearthquakes recorded between September 2022 and August 2023. This high-resolution dataset reveals new seismicity clusters, repeated waveforms, and distinct temporal bursts of activity, suggesting fluid-induced earthquake triggering. Probabilistic moment tensor inversion for 192 high-quality events (Mw 0.6-2.7) resolves predominantly strike-slip faulting along the OFZ, with localised clusters of normal faulting nearby, potentially associated with a previously unknown border fault of the NWB. Notably, we observe systematic rotations in P-axis orientations along the OFZ, which we interpret as localized stress perturbations induced by an overpressured reservoir beneath the Laacher See volcano - the youngest explosive eruption centre in the EEVF. These patterns, coupled with elevated magmatic CO2 emissions in the region and high waveform similarity, suggest that active magmatic and transcrustal fluid processes are influencing the stress regimes and driving the seismicity in the NWB. Our high-resolution seismicity and moment tensor catalogue offers new insights into the interplay between tectonics and fluid-driven processes beneath the youngest volcanoes in the EEVF.

Seismic Attenuation from within Mauna Loa and Kīlauea: A Comparative Analysis

Geophysical Journal International - Sat, 11/22/2025 - 00:00
SummaryThis study presents the first comparative measurements of seismic attenuation between Mauna Loa and Kīlauea volcanos on Hawai’i Island. The focus is on key physical variables found within Kīlauea, and extending our knowledge of these from Kīlauea to Mauna Loa. The measurements of attenuation, elastic/anelastic moduli (µ rigidity and K bulk), T temperature, P pressure, basalt activation energy, are uniformly applied to these adjacent volcanos (34 km separation) for comparative analyses. While numerous seismic attenuation studies have been conducted at Kīlauea, Mauna Loa has remained unexamined in this context until now. We extend previous methodologies to measure both shear (Qµ) and bulk (QK) attenuation over propagation paths from both volcanic calderas to the Aloha Cabled Observatory (ACO), located 442-464 km away at 4728 m depth. Utilizing earthquake displacement source spectra from shallow (near sea level) events beneath both calderas, we derive frequency-dependent effective Q values across the 2-35 Hz frequency band. Our analytical approach employs the t* formulation (ratio of travel time to Q) to separate attenuation along path segments, allowing direct comparison between the two volcanic systems. Results reveal that Mauna Loa exhibits substantially higher attenuation (lower Q values) than Kīlauea for both bulk and shear waves. At 10 Hz, Qµ is approximately four times higher for Kīlauea (∼400) than Mauna Loa (∼115), while QK displays even greater contrast with Kīlauea (∼425) exceeding Mauna Loa (∼25) by a factor of 17. Both volcanoes demonstrate QK < Qµ across most frequencies, emphasizing the significance of bulk losses in volcanic environments. This contradicts traditional assumptions held, that bulk attenuation is negligible in Earth. The pronounced difference in attenuation between these adjacent volcanoes, which share the same hot spot origin, cannot be explained solely by temperature-pressure dependent activation energy models. While we calculated expected Q variations using established basalt activation energies (59-68 kJ/mole), the observed differences exceed predictions by an order of magnitude. This suggests additional mechanisms are at work, likely involving partial melting processes. Our findings indicate that the internal structure of Mauna Loa may contain a greater proportion of partial melt or different melt geometry than Kīlauea, significantly affecting seismic wave propagation. At higher frequencies (17-33 Hz), both volcanoes show evidence of comparable scattering effects. This research provides new insights into the internal composition and dynamics of Hawaiian volcanoes, demonstrating that despite their proximity and shared magmatic source, Mauna Loa and Kīlauea possess distinctly different attenuation characteristics that reflect fundamental differences in their internal structure and melt distribution. These findings enhance our understanding of volcanic processes and contribute to improved interpretation of seismic data in volcanic environments.

First-ever full Earth system simulation provides new tool to understand climate change

Phys.org: Earth science - Fri, 11/21/2025 - 19:12
ACM, the Association for Computing Machinery, today presented a 26-member team with the ACM Gordon Bell Prize for Climate Modeling in recognition of their project "Computing the Full Earth System at 1 km Resolution." The award honors innovative contributions to parallel computing toward solving the global climate crisis.

Exploration of direct transfer opportunities and loitering strategies for lunar surface access

Publication date: Available online 17 November 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Mackenzie E. Mangette, Roshan T. Eapen

Short-Term Rainfall Forecasting Using GNSS-Derived PWV and ZTD Variations: Case Studies of Four Hong Kong Rainstorm Events

Publication date: Available online 17 November 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Yu Chen, Guangxing Wang, Massimo Menenti

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