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Frictional Properties of the Nankai Accretionary Prism

EOS - Thu, 12/11/2025 - 14:00
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth

The Nankai subduction zone in southwest Japan has produced multiple M8+ earthquakes over the past 300 years, including the 1707 M8.7 Hōei earthquake, the 1944 M8.1 Tōnankai earthquake, and the 1946 M8.1 Nankaidō earthquake. As one of the most extensively studied subduction zones in the world, it has been the focus of numerous Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) expeditions aimed at improving our understanding of its seismogenic and tsunamigenic behavior.

Faulkner et al. [2025] compile all available laboratory friction data from Nankai Trough scientific drilling samples and integrate them with routine IODP mineralogical analyses. The dataset spans three transects—Kumano, Muroto, and Ashizuri—and includes material from 26 drilling sites. The experiments cover a wide range of slip velocities, from micrometers per second to meters per second, allowing systematic inversion of key frictional parameters.

This compilation shows that the frictional strength of these materials is generally lower than typical Byerlee friction and decreases with increasing clay content. However, the tendency for materials to weaken at higher slip rates—a key condition for earthquake nucleation—does not clearly correlate with clay abundance. Frictional stability analyses indicate a broad spectrum of possible fault-slip behaviors, from slow slip to earthquake-like failure, consistent with observations in nature. Overall, the findings highlight significant natural heterogeneity in frictional properties within a subduction environment and provide new constraints on the frictional characteristics of the shallow Nankai margin.

Citation: Faulkner, D. R., Zhang, J., Okuda, H., Bedford, J. D., Ikari, M. J., Schleicher, A. M., & Hirose, T. (2025). Synthesis of the laboratory frictional properties of a major shallow subduction zone: The Nankai Trough, offshore SW Japan. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 130, e2025JB031613. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JB031613

—Alexandre Schubnel, Editor-in-Chief, JGR: Solid Earth

Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

How are humans changing the Arctic Ocean?

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 12/11/2025 - 04:00
As part of the EU project ECOTIP, an international team of researchers, including the Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, has analyzed the sea off Greenland more comprehensively than ever before. The key question: How is the area developing in the face of climate change and environmental pollution? Most of the samples were examined in the Hereon laboratories.

Cracks in the Earth: Major gully erosion poses humanitarian crisis threats

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 12/11/2025 - 01:50
Recent fieldwork by Griffith University researchers has highlighted an African country that is facing a rapidly escalating environmental crisis as severe gully erosion—locally termed "mega gullies"—advances across valuable agricultural landscapes.

Lithospheric architecture of the Cameroon Volcanic Line with implications for the asynchronous melt source

Geophysical Journal International - Thu, 12/11/2025 - 00:00
SummaryTo understand the melt source of hotlines with asynchronous volcanoes, we investigate the lithospheric structure of the Cameroon Volcanic Line (CVL), an intraplate hotline without age progression stretching from the Atlantic Ocean into Central Africa. We analyze Bouguer gravity anomalies from the World Gravity Model 2012 using the 2‐D power spectrum techniques and 2-D forward modeling to estimate the crustal and lithospheric thickness. We find: (1) thin crust (20–30 km) beneath the oceanic CVL; (2) thick crust (30–43 km) beneath the continental CVL and the Oubanguides Belt, and thicker crust (43–50 km) beneath the Congo Craton; (3) thin lithosphere (90–120 km) beneath the oceanic CVL and thinner lithosphere (75–90 km) beneath the continental CVL; and (4) thicker lithosphere (150–234 km) beneath the Congo Craton. Our seismically constrained forward models reveal a delaminated body beneath the continental CVL and a sharp transition from thick lithosphere beneath the Congo Craton to thin lithosphere beneath the Oubanguides Belt. We interpret that the thin lithosphere beneath the continental CVL is a result of lithospheric delamination. The delaminated body in the uppermost mantle deflects rising mantle plume material, resulting in the Y-shaped distribution of continental volcanoes. Edge-Driven Convection (EDC) resulting from the sharp gradient in lithospheric thickness between the Congo Craton and the Oubanguides Belt focuses the plume material beneath thin lithosphere, producing the continental CVL. The southern volcanoes of the continental CVL are formed from the southward deflection of plume material by the delaminated body, with melt ascent facilitated by the lithospheric-scale Central African Shear Zone. The northward-directed plume material forms the distinct Biu Plateau, and the eastward-deflected plume material forms the Adamawa Plateau. With a continuous influx of plume material beneath the thin continental lithosphere, for mass to be conserved, part of the plume material defiles the gradient of the thicker oceanic lithosphere adjacent to the Congo Craton to flow oceanward. The oceanward flow of plume material is modulated by upwellings from EDC, producing the oceanic CVL, which explains the oceanward decrease in the timing of the onset of volcanism. We therefore conclude that only the continental CVL lacks age progression resulting from the complex interaction of the rising plume with the delaminated body and the lithospheric architecture.

Static and Quasi-Static Inversion of Fault Slip During Laboratory Earthquakes

Geophysical Journal International - Thu, 12/11/2025 - 00:00
SummaryInferring the spatio-temporal distribution of slip during earthquakes remains a significant challenge due to the high dimensionality and ill-posed nature of the inverse problem. As a result, finite-source inversions typically rely on simplified assumptions. Moreover, in the absence of ground-truth measurements, the performance of inversion methods can only be evaluated through synthetic tests. Laboratory earthquakes offer a valuable alternative by providing “simulated real data” and ground truth observations under controlled conditions, enabling a more reliable evaluation of source inversion procedures. In this study, we present static and quasi-static slip inversion results from data recorded during laboratory earthquakes. Each event is instrumented with 20 accelerometers along the fault, and the recorded acceleration data are used to invert for the slip history. We consider two different types of Green’s functions (GF): simplistic GF assuming a homogeneous elastic half-space and realistic GF computed by finite element modeling of the experimental setup. The inversion results are then compared to direct observations of fault slip and rupture velocity obtained independently during the experiments. Our results show that, regardless of the GF used, the inversions fit well with the data and result in small formal uncertainties of model parameters. However, only the inversion with realistic GF yields slip distributions consistent with the true fault slip measurements and successfully recovers the distribution of rupture velocity along the fault. These findings emphasize the critical role of GF selection in accurately resolving slip dynamics and highlight an important distinction in Bayesian inversion: while posterior uncertainty quantification is essential, it does not guarantee accuracy, especially if forward modeling uncertainties are not properly accounted for. Thus, confidence in inversion results must be paired with careful modeling choices to ensure physical reliability.

Wildfire smoke lofted into atmosphere could affect Earth's climate

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 12/10/2025 - 19:00
Some wildfires are so intense, they create their own weather—thunderstorms driven by heat that hurtle smoke as high as 10 miles into the sky like giant chimneys.

Iberian peninsula is rotating clockwise, according to new geodynamic data

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 12/10/2025 - 18:08
Asier Madarieta, a researcher in the EHU's HGI (Water Environmental Processes) group, has analyzed how the Earth's crust is being compressed and deformed in the field where Eurasia and Africa meet in the Western Mediterranean. His work contributes towards understanding this complex contact field better as well as opening the door to identifying the faults and structures that could lead to earthquakes or deformations on the peninsula.

Tropical cyclones and the carbon cycle: New insights from a model simulation

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 12/10/2025 - 17:22
For the first time, scientists have resolved extremely intense tropical cyclones and their effect on the ocean carbon cycle in a global Earth system model. Using two category-4 hurricanes in the North Atlantic as examples, the study reveals a cascade of physical-biogeochemical effects including uptake of carbon dioxide and regional-scale phytoplankton bloom. The results are published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

A new 'hypertropical' climate is emerging in the Amazon, exposing trees to deadly stress

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 12/10/2025 - 16:00
The Amazon rainforest is slowly transitioning to a new, hotter climate with more frequent and intense droughts—conditions that haven't been seen on Earth for tens of millions of years.

Study suggests Earth's inner core may have onion-like layered structure

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 12/10/2025 - 15:50
An international research team may have found an explanation for seismic anomalies, the noticeable deviations in the behavior of earthquake waves, in Earth's inner core.

Satellite tracking helps map massive rupture of 2025 Myanmar earthquake

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 12/10/2025 - 15:24
The March 28, 2025, Myanmar earthquake is giving scientists a rare look into how some of the world's most dangerous fault systems behave, including California's San Andreas Fault. Earthquakes are notoriously messy and complex, but this one struck along an unusually straight and geologically "mature" fault, creating near-ideal conditions for researchers to observe how Earth releases energy during a major continental rupture.

New Jersey declares drought warning

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 12/10/2025 - 14:39
New Jersey is parched top to bottom.

Episodic Tales of Salt  

EOS - Wed, 12/10/2025 - 14:00
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Water Resources Research

Using a combination of innovative approaches including observations and models, Platt and Dugan [2025] demonstrate how post-winter storm pulses of road salt lead to high concentrations of toxic substances in runoff water.

Surprisingly, the authors find that dilution is not an effective solution in this case, as discharge and snowfall magnitudes do not significantly impact concentrations. Key factors instead include the amount of road salt applied, land use, groundwater recharge and the base flow index. Thus, under conditions of increased groundwater recharge, road salt is stored in groundwater rather than running off.

However, this is not good news either, as it contributes to legacy effects. The authors use a random forest model with available data to show that smaller, ecologically important streams in the study region are at risk, providing a map of potential regions of road salt lightning strikes.

Citation: Platt, L. R. C., & Dugan, H. A. (2025). Episodic salinization of midwestern and northeastern US rivers by road salt. Water Resources Research, 61, e2024WR039496. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024WR039496

—Stefan Kollet, Editor, Water Resources Research

Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Shining a Light on the People Behind Solar Science

EOS - Wed, 12/10/2025 - 13:35

Scientists of all stripes know the value of collecting and using data to answer research questions about everything from microscopic life to Earth system processes to space physics. But what about the value of data shedding light on peers within their own research communities?

Such data can help scientists better understand the makeup of their field and help them find and connect with colleagues. Compiled into an up-to-date, worldwide directory of researchers in a given discipline, for example, they could help people search for employment opportunities, identify possible collaborators, and suggest potential reviewers for papers and proposals.

These data can also help scientists who are early in their careers or otherwise less visible within their community to gain recognition. And they can be used to identify emerging research areas and trends indicating fields that are thriving or declining—important information not only for scientists themselves but also for funding bodies, oversight committees, and policymakers.

Researchers may have ideas of the approximate size and composition of their community, but hard numbers and comprehensive information are difficult to come by.

Researchers may have ideas of the approximate size and composition of their community based on conferences they attend and journal articles they read, but hard numbers and comprehensive information are difficult to come by. Demographic surveys conducted by professional societies or funding agencies typically provide incomplete information, because not everybody responds to them, they may cover single countries only, and they’re performed infrequently.

The need for workforce demographic data was highlighted in the recent National Academies’ Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics, which specifically called (in recommendation 4-1) for U.S. federal agencies to fund collection of this information to help determine the state of the profession.

An underused resource for this data collection is hiding in plain sight: the body of scientific articles produced by the research community. By combining the metadata from these articles with Open Researcher and Contributor IDs (ORCIDs) that uniquely identify authors, it is possible to extract accurate, current information about researchers and their work.

HelioIndex is a new, automated online directory that uses this approach to offer an evolving snapshot of the global community in the field of solar and heliospheric physics (SHP) [Young, 2025]. HelioIndex’s methods are generalizable and can be applied as long as researcher ORCIDs are widely used in research publications, meaning it offers a model for developing similar tools in many other scientific fields.

The Who, What, Where, and How Much of SHP

SHP includes science focused on all aspects of the Sun, from its interior through its atmosphere, out into the solar wind, and all the way to the outer edge of the heliosphere. HelioIndex currently identifies more than 2,300 active SHP researchers in about 60 countries, offering information about these scientists’ geographic distribution, institutional affiliations, areas of expertise (derived from journal article keywords), and publication records.

Figure 1 offers a glimpse of how HelioIndex can be used to consider geographic trends, for example, showing the 10 countries with the most researchers included in the directory. As of July, the United States had the largest share at 29.1%, followed by China and the United Kingdom.

Fig. 1. Tallies of HelioIndex authors located in the 10 most-represented countries in July 2025 and July 2022 are shown here, along with the corresponding percentages of the total number of authors.

Updated twice a month using freely available publication data, HelioIndex always provides the most recent data, but figures from earlier dates can be used to track changes over time. Figure 1 also compares the current numbers of researchers in HelioIndex in the top 10 countries with the corresponding numbers from 3 years earlier and shows how each country’s proportional share of the SHP community has changed during that time.

From July 2022 to July 2025, China, India, and the United States, for example, saw standout increases of 42%, 39%, and 33%, respectively, in their numbers of SHP researchers. The increases contributed to these countries’ growing shares of the global total population of SHP scientists during this 3-year period. Meanwhile, growth in several European countries in the top 10 has been smaller, leading to generally decreased shares of the overall community population.

These numbers demonstrate that overall, SHP as a field is growing. The extent of growth shown in different countries may help early-career scientists to decide where to pursue their careers. The data may also be valuable to national funding bodies for assessing their countries’ competitiveness and determining whether funding levels are appropriate.

An important function of HelioIndex is to enhance the visibility of researchers and their work, especially researchers who have few opportunities for recognition.

At the other end of the scale from the top 10 countries, almost half of the countries are represented in HelioIndex with five or fewer SHP researchers. An important function of HelioIndex is to enhance the visibility of researchers and their work, especially researchers in countries with smaller SHP research communities or who have few opportunities for recognition. Greater visibility can foster new collaborations and research directions and help researchers to prosper and develop research communities in their countries.

The publication and ORCID data used in HelioIndex also enable users to better understand publishing trends within the SHP community. For example, these data allow calculation of the average annual number of first-authored, refereed (FAR) articles per person across all HelioIndex authors.

Knowing this average—currently 0.68, which equates to about two FAR papers every 3 years—is valuable for managing expectations in the field. It may reassure young researchers feeling pressure to publish frequently to advance in their careers that success does not necessarily require such a rapid publishing pace. Meanwhile, if a researcher submits a grant proposal claiming their project will yield 10 FAR papers in a 3-year period, the HelioIndex data suggest that a reviewer considering the proposal would have a right to be skeptical!

Fig. 2. The distribution of career ages—a metric estimated from the publication date of an author’s first first-authored, refereed paper—across all HelioIndex authors, as of July 2025, is currently weighted toward early-career-stage researchers.

A “career age” can also be estimated for each HelioIndex author, using the publication date of their first FAR paper as age 0. This leads to a plot of age distributions (Figure 2), with vertical lines indicating boundaries between early-, middle-, and senior-career categories. The current median career age of all authors in HelioIndex is 9.9 years.

The age distribution and calculated career ages seemingly skew toward younger ages, likely because ORCIDs came into use only in 2009. Whereas most articles published since then will be linked to authors’ ORCIDs and thus included in the HelioIndex data, older articles may be missing for some researchers. However, it is clear from the long tail of the distribution that many senior authors have manually updated their ORCID records.

A Community-Specific Resource

HelioIndex differs from other resources that contribute to professional networking in that it serves a particular research community.

HelioIndex differs from other resources that contribute to professional networking such as ORCID, Scopus, and LinkedIn in that it serves a particular research community.

The procedure for populating HelioIndex begins with scheduled, automatic queries of recent scholarly literature—as captured in NASA’s Astrophysics Data System (ADS) bibliographic database—for articles related to SHP. Articles are likely to be flagged if they, for example, reference prominent review papers, mention a major SHP observatory or spacecraft, or include certain keywords (e.g., “solar flare”).

For each article found by the queries, the names and ORCID identifiers of the authors are gathered and added to a master list of potential HelioIndex authors. As journals generally do not have standard formats for specifying author affiliations, HelioIndex uses custom software to extract institution names and countries from affiliation information through string matching. (Affiliations listed in HelioIndex are updated routinely based upon an author’s most recent publication.)

Authors are included in HelioIndex based on meeting specific keyword criteria and publication criteria. Most journals require authors to assign several keywords to their articles to indicate the area of research to which their work belongs. For inclusion in HelioIndex, it is required that at least 15% of an author’s keywords across all their published articles contain “solar,” “Sun,” or “interplanetary.” This approach has proven effective in distinguishing SHP scientists from scientists in neighboring fields such as stellar physics and magnetospheric physics.

The publication criteria include having at least one refereed article published within the past 3 years, at least one FAR paper in their career, a career age of at least 2, and at least six total points (authorship of a FAR paper counts as two points and coauthorship of a paper counts as one point). These criteria have been chosen so that HelioIndex, at least initially, primarily represents the community of SHP researchers who have earned a doctoral degree and are part of the professional workforce.

Of course, it is difficult to ensure that the directory includes everyone it should in the SHP community. Using the criteria above, for example, it is possible that some early-career researchers—who perhaps haven’t published enough research yet—may be unintentionally excluded. Such issues can be overcome, however, because as the directory’s creator (and part of the SHP community myself), I can readily assess its completeness and adjust query parameters as needed, and I can directly respond to questions about or requests to be added to HelioIndex.

Listed authors can also check their own data, identify omissions or errors, and request not to be listed by name (though in such cases, their geographic and publication data still count toward the general statistics, such as shown in Figures 1 and 2, to maintain completeness).

Scientists Finding Scientists

In addition to providing basic demographic data about the current community of SHP scientists, HelioIndex can serve many other functions. Students and other researchers exploring career options can quickly assess where scientists in the SHP community are concentrated (or not) and use the keyword data to determine with whom their expertise and interests match. They can also browse publication lists to determine scientists’ interests, activity levels, and collaborators.

HelioIndex can also be used to identify potential reviewers for a submitted journal article by matching authors’ keywords to those used in the article. This usage allows an author (or journal editor) to suggest reviewers they may otherwise not have considered, helping diversify the reviewer pool and raise the visibility of peers. This use of HelioIndex may also benefit program managers at funding agencies looking for scientists to sit on review panels.

In just the few months since HelioIndex was publicly announced, traffic to it has been robust and feedback from users has been largely positive. In September and October, for example, the site received a combined 14,651 unique visitors—higher-than-expected traffic considering the modest size of the SHP community. Individuals have commented, for example, that HelioIndex has revealed researchers and research they weren’t previously aware of, and that it helps scientists “grasp the global view of the community of Solar Physics and Heliophysics in the world,” in the words of one midcareer scientist. These early indications suggest that HelioIndex is providing valuable services to many in this community, and seemingly even to many outside it.

The basic mechanics and principles of HelioIndex can be readily applied to develop similar resources for other scientific fields, no matter their size or scope.

Beyond SHP, the basic mechanics and principles of HelioIndex can be readily applied to develop similar resources for other scientific fields, no matter their size or scope, although specific aspects of the literature queries and keyword criteria would need to be adjusted. The initial article search, for example, would need to be modified to cover relevant journals and keywords. The keyword search would need updating too; to distinguish volcanologists from geoscientists in neighboring fields, say, the keyword search could require “volcano.” (Requiring “Earth” as well could help exclude those who study volcanoes elsewhere, such as on Mars or Io.) Author publication criteria could also be revised if, for example, average publishing trends in other fields differ from those in SHP.

As the ADS database is not currently complete for the Earth sciences or other fields outside of astrophysics, an alternative source for publication data, such as Web of Science or Scopus, may be needed. Furthermore, the approach of designing custom software to pull affiliation information from articles into HelioIndex, which worked well for the relatively small SHP research community, may be more challenging for larger fields with many more institutions represented.

HelioIndex demonstrates that scientific article metadata are a rich resource that can be efficiently and effectively mined to complement the sporadic data collected through researcher surveys. With a baseline of consistent and reproducible demographic data, geographic, temporal, and subject matter trends can be identified, providing a variety of valuable information about and for research communities.

References

Young, P. R. (2025), HelioIndex: A directory of active researchers in solar and heliospheric physics, Sol. Phys., 300, 77, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-025-02488-y.

Author Information

Peter Young (peter.r.young@nasa.gov), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.

Citation: Young, P. (2025), Shining a light on the people behind solar science, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250457. Published on 10 December 2025. Text not subject to copyright.
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Could Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Help Save Corals from Bleaching?

EOS - Wed, 12/10/2025 - 13:33

When exposed to environmental stressors like high ocean temperatures and excessive solar radiation, corals bleach and die. Coral reefs collapse, and their benefits—increased biodiversity, protection from coastal erosion, and local economic activity—also disappear.

Some researchers think stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), one of the most well-studied methods of climate intervention, may help mitigate some of the effects coral bleaching when used in tandem with reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. SAI describes a process in which aerosols such as sulfur dioxide are injected into the stratosphere to reduce incoming solar radiation.

To find out whether SAI could help corals, researchers led by physical oceanographer Gouri Anil of Louisiana State University modeled future heat stress on shallow coral reefs with and without the intervention.

Anil and her fellow researchers found that SAI could help many vulnerable reefs survive through 2060, giving researchers and lawmakers time to develop more lasting solutions to mitigate climate change. Anil and the research team will present their results on 15 December at AGU’s Annual Meeting 2025 in New Orleans.

Cool Atmosphere, Warm Waters

Anil’s team calculated the heat stress that shallow equatorial reefs across the globe would experience under a moderate climate change scenario with surface sea temperature data from the United Nations’ World Conservation Monitoring Centre and the Community Earth System Model–Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 (CESM-WACCM6).

The model used in the study is one of the best suited for this type of climate research, according to Alan Robock, a climatologist at Rutgers University who was not involved in the study. Built with data from volcanic eruptions, CESM2-WACCM6 is able to evaluate SAI as a similar release of sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere.

The modeling showed that without any intervention, nearly all the coral reefs studied would experience a fatal amount of heat stress by 2060. Certain coral species and coral reefs in central Polynesia and the tropical east Pacific, which are exposed to the most sunlight, were particularly vulnerable.

When the researchers simulated a scenario that included SAI, however, the sustainability of shallow equatorial reefs through 2060 improved. Every year, the models showed only 10% of the reefs’ area would be at risk of bleaching if SAI was implemented beginning in 2035.

SAI Side Effects

Though SAI may reduce heat stress on coral reefs, researchers said, it could have consequences that require more research to fully understand.

For example, sulfur dioxide can react with water and other substances in the atmosphere to form sulfuric acid aerosols. These aerosols eventually precipitate, Robock said. “It’s going to fall out of the atmosphere to produce acid rain, acid snow.”

“What we’re trying to do is get this information out to people who make these decisions so that they know exactly what could happen.”

Precipitation also means that regular injections of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, likely by specialized planes, would be required to maintain SAI’s cooling effect, Robock explained. “You need to put gas continually into the atmosphere—the amount that would be falling out at steady state.”

And while the new model points to SAI contributing to reduced heat stress on coral reefs, it doesn’t consider other factors that could affect their survival, including ocean acidification, according to Anil. The researchers are currently working on models that incorporate variables like this.

“What we’re trying to do is not advocate for climate intervention,” Anil said. “What we’re trying to do is get this information out to people who make these decisions so that they know exactly what could happen.”

—Albert Chern, Science Writer

10 December 2025: This article has been updated to correct the climate intervention method mentioned in the headline.

Citation: Chern, A. (2025), Could stratospheric aerosol injection help save corals from bleaching?, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250463. Published on 10 December 2025. Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Landslides triggered by Cyclone Ditwah in Sri Lanka

EOS - Wed, 12/10/2025 - 08:23

Satellite images are revealing the scale of the destruction in Sri Lanka caused by landslides triggered by Cyclone Ditwah at the end of November 2025.

At the end of November 2025, a “weak” tropical cyclone, subsequently named Cyclone Ditwah, formed just offshore from Sri Lanka. Over the following day the storm tracked around the south and east coasts of Sri Lanka before moving northwards to dissipate on 3 December off the east coast of India. This was not a strong tropical cyclone, but it brought catastrophic rainfall to Sri Lanka, triggering extremely extensive landslides and floods.

The stats on the impact of Cyclone Ditwah on Sri Lanka are horrifying. The UNDP is reporting that 1,200 landslides were triggered and that about 20% of the island was affected by flooding. As of the time of writing, there are 639 known fatalities, with a further 203 people reported to be missing. The highest loss of life occurred in Kandy District, in the hilly centre of of the country. Many of the fatalities occurred in channelised debris flows.

The impact of the storm is complex – to study the landslides properly would require a PhD study or similar – but a quick inspection of the Planet Labs imagery of the centre of Sri Lanka illustrates the scale of the devastation. This image, collected on 7 September 2025, shows an area in the vicinity of [7.43518, 80.87898]:-

A satellite image of part the area affected by landslides triggered by Cyclone Ditwah in Sri Lanka. This image shows the area before the event. Image copyright Planet Labs, used with permission, dated 07 September 2025.

This image, collected on 30 November 2025, shows the same area after the passage of Cyclone Ditwah:-

A satellite image of part the area affected by landslides triggered by Cyclone Ditwah in Sri Lanka. This image shows the aftermath of the event. Image copyright Planet Labs, used with permission, dated 30 November 2025.

And here is a slider to compare the two images:

Image copyright Planet Labs.

And here is the post event image pasted onto the Google Earth DEM:-

A satellite image of part the area affected by landslides triggered by Cyclone Ditwah in Sri Lanka. This image shows the aftermath of the event. Image copyright Planet Labs, used with permission, dated 30 November 2025.

In the foreground is a large landslide that has started at the ridgeline. It has entrained heavily along the track, and has impacted a large area of fields at the toe of the slope. Note the channelised debris flow close by. In the background are multiple shallow landslides, many of which have reached the drainage line to generate channelised debris flows. These have been devastating downstream.

The impact of these landslides will be long lasting. I have made the point before, but it is worth reiterating, that tropical cyclones are often associated with strong winds and storm surge, but a huge proportion of the damage is actually caused by rainfall. Cyclone Ditwah was, in meteorological terms, “weak”. The images above show that this is a completely inappropriate way to characterise such storms.

Acknowledgement

Images from Planet Labs 2025 – see: https://www.planet.com/. Thanks as always for their agreement that I can use their images on this blog.

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2023. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Ocean current and seabed shape influence warm water circulation under ice shelves, research reveals

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 12/10/2025 - 00:10
New research reveals how the speed of ocean currents and the shape of the seabed influence the amount of heat flowing underneath Antarctic ice shelves, contributing to melting.

Data-informed Grid Refinement to Improve Travel Time Accuracy in the Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) Model

Geophysical Journal International - Wed, 12/10/2025 - 00:00
SummaryThe regional seismic travel-time (RSTT) model predicts travel times of regional seismic phases accounting for three-dimensional structure of the crust and the upper mantle on a global scale. Previous versions of the RSTT model have been implemented using nodes separated by ∼1° spacing across the globe. A regional-scale study using regional Pn and Pg travel times across Israel and the Middle East demonstrated that data driven, systematic grid refinement reduces travel time residuals and enhances resolution of smaller tectonic features in regions having dense ray coverage. High density Pn ray coverage in the western US, Europe, Middle East, and East Asia can likewise provide the resolution that allows systematic global grid refinement of the RSTT model. In this study, we use a large number of Pn ray paths originating from events located with an epicentral location uncertainty of 25 km (GT25) or better. We conduct targeted grid refinements at 1.0°, 0.5°, 0.25°, and 0.125° on a global scale, producing a refined RSTT model that yields a 21.6% reduction in median event location error in Europe and the Middle East, when compared with the original global RSTT model presented in Begnaud et al. (2021a). The new model also resolves finer tectonic structures in regions with high Pn ray density.

pseudo trans-dimensional 3d geometrical inversion: a proof of concept using gravity data

Geophysical Journal International - Wed, 12/10/2025 - 00:00
SummaryWe present and apply a pseudo trans-dimensional inversion method for 3D geometrical gravity inversion, in which the number of rock units, their geometry, and their density can vary during sampling. The method is designed for efficient exploration of the model space and to infer the presence and properties of units not directly observable but detectable with geophysical data. Sampling relies on a non-reversible Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, during which rock units can be added or removed from the model, interface geometries are perturbed using random fields, and densities are sampled from distributions informed by prior information. To visualise the space of sampled models and to aid interpretation, a workflow is proposed that combines dimensionality reduction with the clustering of models in families. The capabilities of the inversion method are evaluated using two synthetic cases. The first is a motivating example aimed at recovering an intrusion missing from the prior model. It features a horizontal layer-cake where fixed-dimensional inversion fails to adequately fit the data and sample models close to the true model, while the proposed pseudo trans-dimensional approach is much more successful. The second case investigates the recovery of two missing units and the capability to overcome prior model biases. Results show the potential of our method to infer the presence of unseen geological features such as intrusions. However, they suggest that with biased prior geological modelling, it may be challenging to infer with certainty the presence of more than two previously unknown rock units at depth.

Wave propagation in rock media with highly viscous fluids based on a fractional thermoporoelastic theory

Geophysical Journal International - Wed, 12/10/2025 - 00:00
SummaryWhen highly viscous fluids are present in a rock medium, the viscous effect of such fluids cannot be neglected in the propagation of elastic waves. In this paper, a fractional thermoporoelastic theory is newly proposed, which is a further improvement of the two-temperature generalized thermoporoelastic theory. Firstly, by introducing the Kelvin-Voigt model into the stress-strain constitutive equation, the viscous effect of highly viscous fluids is considered. Then, fractional derivatives are introduced into the heat conduction equations of the solid and fluid phase to consider the anomalous heat conduction caused by the viscous effect in rock media. Plane wave analysis method is adopted to obtain the phase velocity and attenuation factor of four longitudinal waves (P1, P2, T1, T2). Numerical results show that the introduction of fluid viscosity leads to the appearance of new relaxation peaks in the P wave at high frequencies, and the introduction of fractional derivatives causes a decrease in the phase velocity and attenuation factor of T waves. The results provide a reference for further research on the wave propagation in rock media containing highly viscous fluids.

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