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Estimating an airborne dipole source using 3D wavefield simulations and seismic receivers on the ground

Geophysical Journal International - Tue, 12/09/2025 - 00:00
SummaryAcoustic signals can couple to the ground, providing an opportunity to use seismic stations to investigate airborne sources. The study of Bishop et al. (2022) used wavefield simulations in a fluid-solid medium to quantify the role of topography on the seismic (ground) recordings of a monopole source in the air. We build upon this study by linking wavefield forward modeling with the source estimation code MTUQ, which can accommodate point forces or moment tensors in a solid medium, as well as sources in the air (or water) if they are enabled by the forward-modeling solver. We perform a series of synthetic numerical experiments to demonstrate that a dipole airborne source can be estimated using ground-based receivers, even within the presence of realistic topography. We investigate the influence of receiver coverage, topography, and assumed source location on the estimated results. The established capabilities raise the prospects for future efforts to estimate dipole sources in 3D models that include heterogeneity in the air and the earth in addition to topography.

A snowy, cold start to winter follows a very warm fall: How are Illinois seasons changing?

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 12/08/2025 - 23:50
After years of little snow across the Chicago area, recent record-breaking snowfall and below-freezing temperatures might seem to contradict scientific reports of winters getting warmer. But climate change is still transforming how locals experience the changing seasons, including this fall, one of the top 10 warmest recorded in Illinois.

What lies beneath Greenland could change what we know about rising seas

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 12/08/2025 - 21:42
A new study led by researchers at the University of Ottawa provides a series of highly detailed 3D models of the Earth's temperature beneath Greenland and northeastern Canada, providing insights into the region's geological history and the response of the ice sheet to past and future climate change.

Tiny turbulent whirls keep the Arctic ocean flowing

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 12/08/2025 - 17:44
In the coming decades, climate change is likely to lead to a loss of sea ice in and an influx of warmer water to the Arctic Ocean, affecting the ocean's vertical circulation. Brown and colleagues recently investigated the forces that drive the Arctic Ocean's vertical circulation to gain insight into how the circulation might change in the future.

Greenhouse gases projected to sharply increase extreme flooding in Central Himalayas

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 12/08/2025 - 16:10
Rising greenhouse gas emissions could see the size of extreme floods in the Central Himalayas increase by between as much as 73% and 84% by the end of this century.

When Should a Tsunami Not Be Called a Tsunami?

EOS - Mon, 12/08/2025 - 13:56

The public has long been educated to respond to the threat of a tsunami by moving away from the coast and to higher ground. This messaging has created the impression that tsunami impacts are always potentially significant and has conditioned many in the public toward strong emotional responses at the mere mention of the word “tsunami.”

Indeed, in more general usage, “tsunami” is often used to indicate the arrival or occurrence of something in overwhelming quantities, such as in the seeming “tsunami of data” available in the digital age.

The prevailing messaging of tsunami risk communications is underscored by roadside signs in vulnerable areas, such as along the U.S. West Coast, that point out tsunami hazard zones or direct people to evacuation routes. The ubiquity and straightforward message of these signs, which typically depict large breaking waves (sometimes looming over human figures), reinforce the notion that tsunamis pose life-threatening hazards and that people should evacuate the area.

The disparity between the scientific definition of tsunamis and their common portrayal in risk communications and general usage creates room for confusion in public understanding.

Of course, sometimes they do present major risks—but not always.

The current scientific definition of a tsunami sets no size limit. According to the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) [2019], a tsunami is “a series of travelling waves of extremely long length and period, usually generated by disturbances associated with earthquakes occurring below or near the ocean floor.” After pointing out that volcanic eruptions, submarine landslides, coastal rockfalls, and even meteorite impacts can also produce tsunamis, the definition continues: “These waves may reach enormous dimensions and travel across entire ocean basins with little loss of energy.”

The use of “may” indicates that a tsunami, or long wave, by this definition need not be large or especially impactful. If the initiating disturbance is small, the amplitude of the generated long wave will also be small.

The disparity between the scientific definition of tsunamis and their common portrayal in risk communications and general usage creates room for additional confusion in public understanding and potentially wasted effort and resources in community responses. We thus propose revising the definition of tsunami to include an amplitude threshold to help clarify when and where incoming waves pose enough of a hazard for the public to take action.

A Parting of the Waves

Tsunami wave amplitudes can vary substantially not only from one event to another but also within a single event. Following the magnitude 8.8 earthquake off the Kamchatka Peninsula in July, for example, tsunami waves upward of 4 meters hit nearby parts of the Russian coast, whereas amplitudes were much lower at distant sites across the Pacific.

Meanwhile, other disturbances create waves that although technically tsunamis, simply tend to be smaller. Prevailing public messaging about tsunami threats can complicate communications about such smaller waves, including those from meteotsunamis, for example.

Meteotsunamis are long waves generated in a body of water by a sudden atmospheric disturbance, usually a rapid change in barometric pressure [e.g., Rabinovich, 2020]. They are often reported after the fact as coastal inundation events for which no other obvious explanation can be found.

Once a meteotsunami is formed, the factors that govern its propagation, amplitude, and impact are the same as for other tsunamis. However, meteotsunami wave amplitudes are typically smaller than those of long waves generated by large seismic events.

Updating the scientific definition of a tsunami to include a low-end amplitude threshold could help avoid scenarios where oceanic long waves may be coming but evacuation is not required.

As coastal inundations are amplified by sea level rise and thus are becoming more frequent, a greater need to communicate about all coastal inundation events, including from meteotsunamis, is emerging. And with recent progress in understanding meteotsunamis, it is becoming feasible to develop operational warning systems for them (although to date, only a few countries—Korea being one [Kim et al., 2022]—have such systems).

Still, many meteotsunamis do not require coastal evacuations. Given the public’s understanding of the word “tsunami,” however, an announcement that a meteotsunami is on the way could cause an unnecessary response.

Updating the scientific definition of a tsunami to include a low-end amplitude threshold could help avoid such scenarios where oceanic long waves may be coming but evacuation is not required. We suggest that a long wave below that threshold amplitude should be referred to simply as an oceanic long wave or another suitable alternative, such as a displacement wave. Many meteotsunamis, as well as some long waves generated by low-magnitude seismicity and other drivers, would thus not be classified as tsunamis.

Conceptually, our proposal aligns somewhat with various tsunami magnitude scales developed to link wave heights or energies with potential impacts on land [e.g., Abe, 1979]. These scales have yet to be widely accepted by either the scientific community or operational warning centers, however, perhaps because it is difficult to assign a single value to represent the impact of a tsunami. In addition, tsunami magnitude calculations often require postevent analyses, which are too slow for use in early warnings.

We are not proposing yet another tsunami magnitude scale; rather, our idea focuses predominantly on terminology and solely on relatively low amplitude long waves.

Lessons from Meteorology

This kind of threshold classification for naming natural hazards has precedent in other scientific disciplines.

In meteorology, for example, a tropical low-pressure system is designated as a named tropical storm only if its maximum sustained wind speed is more than 63 kilometers per hour. Below that threshold, a system is called a tropical depression. A higher wind speed threshold is similarly specified before more emotive terms such as “hurricane,” “typhoon,” and “tropical cyclone” (depending on the region) are used.

Considering the effectiveness of using thresholds for tropical storm terminology, we anticipate that adopting a formal tsunami threshold could have similar benefits.

Current wind-based tropical storm naming systems have limitations, such as their focus on wind hazards over those from rainfall or storm surge [e.g., Paxton et al., 2024]. However, on the whole, using intensity thresholds for various terms has enhanced the communication of the risks of these weather systems—whether limited or life-threatening—to the public. The straightforward framework helps inform decisionmaking, allowing people in potentially affected areas to determine whether they should evacuate or take other protective measures against an approaching weather system [e.g., Lazo et al., 2010; Cass et al., 2023]. Lazo et al. [2010], for example, underscored that categorizing hurricanes is a powerful tool for easily conveying storm severity to the public, enabling faster and more confident protective action decisions.

Research into tsunami risk communication, including about best practices and regional differences, is limited compared with that related to other hazards [Rafliana et al., 2022]. However, considering the effectiveness of using thresholds for tropical storm terminology, we anticipate that adopting a formal tsunami threshold could have similar benefits for the communication of risk to the public. For example, it could inform decisions about where and when to issue evacuation orders and, equally important, when those orders could be lifted.

Open Questions to Consider

Our proposal raises important questions about the nature of a potential tsunami threshold and how it should be applied.

First, what should the threshold wave amplitude be? There is no obvious answer, and the decision would require careful consideration within the scientific and operational tsunami warning communities, although amplitude threshold–related techniques already used by tsunami warning services may offer useful insights.

For example, the Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre (JATWC) issues three categories of tsunami warnings: no threat, marine threat (indicating potentially dangerous waves and strong ocean currents in the marine environment), and land threat (indicating major land inundation of low-lying coastal areas, dangerous waves, and strong ocean currents). JATWC uses an amplitude of 0.4 meter measured at a tide gauge as a minimum for the confirmation of lower-level marine threat warnings [Allen and Greenslade, 2010]. That could be a possible value for our proposed threshold—or at least a starting point for discussion.

An internationally consistent threshold would be ideal, especially considering the expansive reach of tsunamis, but is not necessarily imperative. The terminology for tropical storms is not entirely consistent around the world, yet the benefits for hazard communication are still evident.

A second question is whether a wave should be considered a tsunami along its entire length once its amplitude anywhere reaches the threshold. We think not and instead propose that long waves be called tsunamis only where their amplitude is above the defined threshold. Were the threshold to be set at 0.4 meter, this provision would mean, for example, that in the hypothetical case following a large earthquake shown in Figure 1, only waves in the orange- and red-shaded regions would be considered tsunami waves.

Fig. 1. Modeled maximum amplitudes of waves propagating across the Pacific Ocean following a hypothetical magnitude 9.0 earthquake on the Japan Trench are seen here. Credit: Stewart Allen, Bureau of Meteorology

In this way, the proposed terminology for tsunamis would differ from that used for tropical low-pressure systems, which are classified as storms (or hurricanes, typhoons, etc.) in their entirety once their maximum sustained winds exceed a certain threshold—regardless of where that occurs. While tropical storms typically have localized impacts, long ocean waves can travel vast distances, even globally. However, since the destructive effects of these waves are limited to specific regions—similar to tropical storms—it is reasonable to refer to them as tsunamis only in areas where significant impact is expected.

This location-dependent classification may raise practical challenges for warning centers, in part because details of the forcing disturbance (e.g., the earthquake depth and focal mechanism) may not be immediately available and because of uncertainties about how a long wave will interact with complex coastlines, which can amplify or attenuate waves.

On the other hand, early assessments of where and when an ocean long wave should be defined as a tsunami would benefit from the fact that once a tsunami is generated, its evolution is fairly predictable because of its linear propagation in deep water.

Using amplitude threshold–based definitions will require efforts to educate the public about basic principles and the terminology of ocean waves.

Another issue for consideration is that using amplitude threshold–based definitions will require efforts to educate the public about basic principles (e.g., what wave amplitudes are and why they vary) and the terminology of ocean waves. Ubiquitous mentions of atmospheric pressure “highs” and “lows” in weather forecasts have familiarized the public with terms like “tropical low” and with what conditions to expect when the pressure is low. However, “oceanic long wave” and other such terms are more obscure. Choosing the best term for waves that do not meet the tsunami threshold, as well as the best approaches for informing people, would require social science research and testing with the public.

Finally, how do we ensure that this tsunami threshold terminology prompts appropriate public reactions, whether that is evacuating coastal areas entirely, pursuing a limited response such as securing boats properly and staying out of the water, or taking no action at all? Scientists, social scientists, and the emergency management and civil protection communities must collaborate to address this question and to test the messaging with the public. Using official tsunami warning services to issue warnings about above-threshold events and more routine marine and coastal services, such as forecasts of sea and swell in coastal waters, to share news about below-threshold events might be an effective way to help the public understand the potential severity of different events and react accordingly.

Normalizing and Formalizing

Should the use of a tsunami amplitude threshold be adopted for risk communications, we advocate that ocean scientists should also adhere to the terminology in presentations and research publications in the same way that atmospheric scientists have adhered to the threshold-dependent terminology around tropical storms. This consistency will gradually normalize the usage and reduce confusion. Readers of a scientific publication that notes the occurrence of a tsunami, for example, would instantly know that it was an above-threshold event.

Formalizing a scientific redefinition of what constitutes a tsunami will require discussion, agreement, and coordination across multiple bodies, most notably the IOC, which supports the agencies that provide tsunami warnings, and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which supports the agencies that provide marine forecasts. Should this threshold proposal receive enough initial support, the next step would be to elevate the proposal to the IOC and WMO for further consideration in these forums.

Considering the potential benefits for risk communications and the well-being of coastal communities worldwide, we think these are discussions worth having.

References

Abe, K. (1979), Size of great earthquakes of 1837–1974 inferred from tsunami data, J. Geophys. Res., 84, 1,561–1,568, https://doi.org/10.1029/JB084iB04p01561.

Allen, S. C. R., and D. J. M. Greenslade (2010), Model-based tsunami warnings derived from observed impacts, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 2,631–2,642, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-2631-2010.

Cass, E., et al. (2023), Identifying trends in interpretation and responses to hurricane and climate change communication tools, Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct., 93, 103752, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103752.

Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (2019), Tsunami Glossary, 4th ed., IOC Tech. Ser. 85, U.N. Educ., Sci. and Cultural Organ., Paris, unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000188226.

Kim, M.-S., et al. (2022), Towards observation- and atmospheric model-based early warning systems for meteotsunami mitigation: A case study of Korea, Weather Clim. Extremes, 37, 100463, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100463.

Lazo, J. K., et al. (2010), Household evacuation decision making and the benefits of improved hurricane forecasting: Developing a framework for assessment, Weather Forecast., 25(1), 207–219, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009WAF2222310.1.

Paxton, L. D., J. Collins, and L. Myers (2024), Reconsidering the Saffir-Simpson scale: A Qualitative investigation of public understanding and alternative frameworks, in Advances in Hurricane Risk in a Changing Climate, Hurricane Risk, vol. 3, edited by J. Collins et al., pp. 241–279, Springer, Cham, Switzerland, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-63186-3_10.

Rabinovich, A. B. (2020), Twenty-seven years of progress in the science of meteorological tsunamis following the 1992 Daytona Beach event, Pure Appl. Geophys., 177, 1,193–1,230, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-019-02349-3.

Rafliana, I., et al. (2022), Tsunami risk communication and management: Contemporary gaps and challenges, Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct., 70, 102771, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102771.

Author Information

Diana J. M. Greenslade (diana.greenslade@bom.gov.au) and Matthew C. Wheeler, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic., Australia

Citation: Greenslade, D. J. M., and M. C. Wheeler (2025), When should a tsunami not be called a tsunami?, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250453. Published on 8 December 2025. This article does not represent the opinion of AGU, Eos, or any of its affiliates. It is solely the opinion of the author(s). Text © 2025. Commonwealth of Australia. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Tiny Turbulent Whirls Keep the Arctic Ocean Flowing

EOS - Mon, 12/08/2025 - 13:54
Source: AGU Advances

In the coming decades, climate change is likely to lead to a loss of sea ice in and an influx of warmer water to the Arctic Ocean, affecting the ocean’s vertical circulation. Brown et al. recently investigated the forces that drive the Arctic Ocean’s vertical circulation to gain insight into how the circulation might change in the future.

The researchers drew on data from a range of sources, including measurements from shipborne and mooring-based instruments, ERA-Interim, the Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, and the Polar Science Center Hydrographic Climatology.

Two contrasting factors emerged as the main drivers of vertical circulation as warmer waters flow from the Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic. In the Barents Sea, hitherto the only ice-free part of the Arctic, the ocean loses heat to the atmosphere, causing some of the water to become denser and to sink. Elsewhere, centimeter-sized whirls of turbulence mix in freshwater from rivers and precipitation, resulting in lighter-weight water that remains close to the surface.

As climate change continues to melt sea ice, the balance between these surface fluxes and turbulent mixing is likely to change. More of the ocean surface will be exposed to heat loss to the atmosphere. At the same time, turbulence is likely both to increase and to become more variable. The Arctic Ocean is a source of cold, dense water that feeds the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, a circulation pattern that holds key influence over the weather in western Europe and North America. Determining how changing circulation patterns in the Arctic Ocean will affect the AMOC should be a focus for future research, the authors suggest. (AGU Advances, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024AV001529, 2025)

—Saima May Sidik (@saimamay.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Sidik, S. M. (2025), Tiny turbulent whirls keep the Arctic Ocean flowing, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250455. Published on 8 December 2025. Text © 2025. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Adrift like Shackleton: Robot float survives Antarctic ice

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 12/08/2025 - 13:51
A robotic float has measured the temperature and salinity from parts of the ocean never sampled before—underneath massive floating ice shelves in East Antarctica.

Accelerating 3D Seismic Wave Simulations on ARM Using a Hybrid Half-Precision and Scalable Vector Extension Approach

Geophysical Journal International - Mon, 12/08/2025 - 00:00
AbstractSeismic simulation is fundamental for understanding earthquake physics and mitigating seismic hazards, but accurate seismic modeling requires fine computational grids, imposing severe memory and computational challenges. Traditional modeling solvers, relying on single-precision floating-point 32-bit (FP32) and scalar register-based computation, suffer from excessive memory consumption, low memory access efficiency, and limited computational efficiency. Compared with FP32, half-precision floating-point 16-bit (FP16) reduces memory consumption by 50% and improves memory access efficiency; relative to scalar registers, ARM’s Scalable Vector Extension (SVE) registers provide vectorized single-instruction multiple-data (SIMD) capabilities, significantly accelerating computation. However, leveraging the advantages of FP16 and SVE involves challenges such as FP16 overflow/underflow, SVE stencil adaptation, and SVE data misalignment from FP16 storage with FP32 arithmetic. Therefore, this study proposes three approaches on the ARM architecture: FP16-based, SVE-accelerated, and FP16-SVE hybrid; each is designed to tackle the respective challenges while exploiting FP16 memory efficiency and SVE computational acceleration. Correspondingly, the three solvers are implemented, validated, and benchmarked on both hypothetical models and real-world earthquake scenarios. The results of these solvers show near-perfect agreement with the reference solver, confirming their accuracy across diverse seismic scenarios. Moreover, the FP16-SVE hybrid solver halved memory usage and achieved up to 3× computational speedup, delivering more than 2.3× acceleration in the real-world earthquake simulation. The gains in high efficiency of memory and computation highlight the capability of the FP16-SVE hybrid solver to support large-scale, real-time seismic simulations and efficient earthquake hazard assessment on ARM platforms.

Full wavefield surface wave analysis with Bayesian Evidential Learning

Geophysical Journal International - Mon, 12/08/2025 - 00:00
AbstractSurface waves such as Rayleigh, Love and Scholte waves can exhibit dispersion, i.e., variations in phase velocity with wavelength as a function of frequency. This property enables the inversion of 1D models of seismic velocity and density in the subsurface. Conventional deterministic and stochastic inversion schemes are widely applied to surface wave data but face two main challenges. The first is the identification of dispersion curves for fundamental and higher modes on wavefield-transformed images, which is often done manually. The second is the quantification of uncertainty, which can be computationally expensive in stochastic approaches or limited to data-propagated uncertainty in deterministic inversions. Our objectives are to (1) eliminate the need for manual or automatic dispersion curve picking, and (2) directly infer ensembles of 1D velocity models - and their associated uncertainties - from the full velocity spectrum, i.e., the complete dispersion image containing all modes. To this end, we employ Bayesian Evidential Learning, a predictive framework that reproduces experimental data from prior information while allowing prior falsification. In our application, ensembles of prior Earth models are sampled to predict 1D subsurface structures in terms of seismic velocity and, where applicable, attenuation from near-surface seismic wave data. This approach bypasses traditional inversion schemes and provides a computationally efficient tool for uncertainty quantification.

Intraplate Repeating Earthquakes in the Rupture Area of the 2008 Gyeryongsan, Korea, Mw 3.6 Earthquake

Geophysical Journal International - Mon, 12/08/2025 - 00:00
SummaryRepeating earthquakes are believed to result from recurring ruptures of a single asperity, driven by surrounding aseismic creep. However, their occurrence and behavior in intraplate regions remain poorly understood. This study investigates the repeating earthquakes in the Gyeryongsan region of the Korean Peninsula, a tectonically stable intraplate region, following the 2008 Mw 3.56 earthquake. We augmented the earthquake catalogue from 2007 to 2022 using template matching and identified one repeating earthquake family comprising ten events with irregular recurrence intervals. The repeating earthquakes, with a median magnitude of Mw 1.22, occurred within the rupture area of the Mw 3.56 mainshock, beginning in late 2010 and subsequently recurring intermittently between 2011 and 2019. Stress drops of nearby earthquakes increased gradually from 0.3-0.9 MPa to 8.6 MPa over a decade, indicating a fault strength recovery period substantially longer than that typically observed at plate boundaries. We interpret that the earthquakes occurred within a damaged fault zone, reflecting extremely low loading rates in the intraplate region. Our study provides insights into earthquake behaviour within intraplate damaged fault zones and documents a rare case of a repeating earthquake family that persisted over ∼12 years.

Autonomous satellite orbit determination and time comparison with space-based VLBI measurements

Publication date: Available online 1 December 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Yifan Wu, Qianyi Ren, Richang Dong, Xinying Lu, Mingyuan Zhang

Groundwater science in the age of AI: emerging paradigms and challenges

Publication date: Available online 1 December 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Mahfuzur Rahman, Asif Raihan, Syed Masiur Rahman, Md Anuwer Hossain, Mohammed Benaafi, Isam H. Aljundi

A Dual-Capsule Structural Airship for Flight in the Stratosphere

Publication date: Available online 1 December 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Zhiguang Shi, Zongyu Zuo, Jiawei Song, Jingchuan Tang, Gang Wang

Monitoring and Forecasting Agricultural Drought in Golestan Province, Iran (2001-2028): An Integrated Approach Using Remote Sensing and Machine Learning

Publication date: Available online 1 December 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Mahsa Jahanbakhsh, Mehdi Akhoondzadeh

Attitude Estimation of Uncontrolled Space Objects: A Bayesian-Informed Swarm Intelligence Approach

Publication date: Available online 1 December 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Jorge Rubio, Adrián Andrés, Carlos Paulete, Ángel Gallego, Diego Escobar

Long-Term Frozen Repeat Orbits with Large Eccentricity under Complex Perturbations

Publication date: Available online 1 December 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Tao Nie, Zhijun Que, Shijie Zhang, Jiadong Ren, Rui Xu

Ionospheric Response to Extreme Geomagnetic Storm (<math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" altimg="si35.svg" class="math"><mrow><mi>G</mi><mn>5</mn></mrow></math>) of 10 May 2024 over the African Sector

Publication date: Available online 29 November 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Geletaw Behailu, Abdu Mohammed, Yibekal Kassa, Michael W. Liemhon

Storms in the Southern Ocean are producing more rain—and the consequences could be global

Phys.org: Earth science - Sat, 12/06/2025 - 17:00
If you ever find yourself on Macquarie Island—a narrow, wind-lashed ridge halfway between Tasmania and Antarctica—the first thing you'll notice is the wildlife. Elephant seals sprawl across dark beaches. King penguins march up mossy slopes. Albatrosses circle over vast, treeless uplands.

New approach narrows uncertainty in future warming and remaining carbon budget for 2°C

Phys.org: Earth science - Sat, 12/06/2025 - 15:00
How much the planet warms with each ton of carbon dioxide remains one of the most important questions in climate science, but there is uncertainty in predicting it. This uncertainty hinders governments, businesses and communities from setting clear emission-reduction targets and preparing for the impacts of climate change.

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