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The evolving landslide threat at Farwell Canyon on the Chilcotin River in British Columbia

EOS - Fri, 01/16/2026 - 08:24

There are concerns about the potential impact of an incipient landslide at Farwell Canyon on the Chilcotin River in British Columbia, Canada.

On 30 July 2024, a large landslide occurred on the Chilcotin River in British Columbia, Canada, blocking the flow. The scale of the landslide was massive – on the BC website about the event, it is estimated that the landslide was about 1,000 metres in length, 600 metres in width, and roughly 30 metres deep. There is a good Youtube video with footage of the landslide:-

And this image, from the BC Government, captures the landslide itself:-

The 30 July 2024 landslide on the Chilcotin River in Canada. Image from the BC Government.

The landslide breached and the lake drained on 5 August 2024.

In the aftermath of that landslide, geotechnical monitoring was established for the riverbanks, which has identified another site on the Chilcotin River that appears to be vulnerable to a landslide. A tension crack has developed at a site known as Snhaxalaus, located just downstream of the the Farwell Canyon Bridge (the bridge is at [51.82790, -122.56296].

The Tŝilhqot’in National Government has published this image of the site:-

The site of the incipient landslide near to Farwell Canyon Bridge on the Chilcotin River in Canada. Image from the Tŝilhqot’in National Government.

The tension crack, and the large displacements, are clearly evident.

The major concern at this site is the potential impact on Chilko salmon. Following 2024 landslide, an Emergency Salmon Task Force was established, led by the Tŝilhqot’in National Government but also working with the Williams Lake First Nation. To manage the threat posed by the incipient landslide on the Farwell Canyon, the Task Force is planning to undertake “a proactive slope stabilization plan that includes manual scaling and targeted trim blasting”, which seems like a reasonable approach.

However, national and/or provincial funding is not in place to undertake this work ahead of the salmon migration later this year, so the Tŝilhqot’in National Government is planning to fund the work itself. The costs are estimated to be in the range of CAN$2.5M – $3M. Tŝilhqot’in National Government is concerned that a failure at this site ahead of the salmon migration could cause devastating damage to the salmon populations on the Fraser River.

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Exposing how humidity can escalate a heat wave

Phys.org: Earth science - Fri, 01/16/2026 - 00:50
When Floridians talk about extreme weather, hurricanes dominate the conversation. Each season brings updates on storm tracks, cone predictions and wind speeds, all in the hopes of predicting the unpredictable. But a quieter, more deceptive threat is already reshaping the way people live and work in the Sunshine State: extreme heat.

An SVMD-based Mode Extraction Criterion for Geocenter Motion Analysis

Geophysical Journal International - Fri, 01/16/2026 - 00:00
SummaryThe Geocenter Motion (GCM) time series captures periodic variations arising from diverse Earth system changes. This study pioneers the use of Successive Variational Mode Decomposition (SVMD) in GCM research, enabling the precise extraction and analysis of these meaningful geophysical signals. SVMD outperformed Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) by effectively isolating signals and minimizing interference from components with similar variance contributions. However, a high maximum penalty factor in SVMD may lead to noise-dominated Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs). To overcome this limitation, we propose an extraction criterion that utilizes the standard deviation of the correlation coefficient and mean kurtosis as thresholds. Validations with simulations and the real GCM time series demonstrate its superiority over traditional single- and dual-threshold criteria, effectively retaining valuable information while excluding most noise-dominated IMFs. This improved approach is further employed to explore the geophysical driving factors of key periodic variations in the GCM time series, focusing on the annual, semi-annual, 10.5-year, 451-day, ∼160-day, and ∼120-day periods. Multi-source GCM analyses combined with the fingerprint method reveal distinct contributions from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, terrestrial water storage, continental glaciers, and atmosphere-ocean interactions to different periodic signals. This study provides a robust methodology for decomposing GCM and attributing its variations to underlying Earth system changes, advancing our understanding and interpretation of global mass redistribution.

DLM-FWI: Deep learning matching filtering for full waveform inversion

Geophysical Journal International - Fri, 01/16/2026 - 00:00
SummaryFull waveform inversion (FWI) is a popular method for subsurface parameter estimation. Despite its effectiveness in building high-resolution velocity models, the quality of the inversion result is significantly dependent on a fairly accurate, smooth initial model, which is often challenging to build. To weaken the influence related to the inaccurate initial model, we propose a deep learning (DL) matching-based FWI framework, namely DLM-FWI, where multiple convolution neural networks (CNNs) are used to construct an adaptive matching filter to better pinpoint the discrepancies between the synthetic and observed data. With the help of the CNN-based matching filter, the synthetic data will be regularized first, leading to intermediate data, and the model update will be conducted by minimizing the misfit between the intermediate and the observed data for improved data-fitting. More importantly, we integrate the whole inversion process into an automatic differentiation (AD) framework, simplifying the implementation of classic FWI. We apply the proposed DLM-FWI method to both synthetic and field datasets to validate its effectiveness. The results demonstrate that compared with classic FWI, DLM-FWI performs better in subsurface model reconstruction when the initial model is far from the global minimum.

The hidden risk of combined stressors for soils

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 01/15/2026 - 21:20
Global change—a term that encompasses climate change and phenomena such as changes in land use or environmental pollution—is increasingly putting ecosystems around the world under pressure. Urban soils in particular are susceptible to stressors like heat, drought, road salt, nitrogen deposition, surfactants, and microplastics.

When lightning strikes: Models of multi-ignition wildfires could predict catastrophic events

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 01/15/2026 - 20:07
Multi-ignition wildfires are not overly common. But when individual fires do converge, the consequences can be catastrophic. The largest fire on record in California, the 2020 August Complex fire, grew from the coalescence of 10 separate ignitions.

Tiny earthquakes reveal hidden faults under Northern California

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 01/15/2026 - 19:00
By tracking swarms of very small earthquakes, seismologists are getting a new picture of the complex region where the San Andreas fault meets the Cascadia subduction zone, an area that could give rise to devastating major earthquakes.

Collapse of the Tang dynasty: Climate change likely played a role

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 01/15/2026 - 17:19
Environmental phenomena and their consequences can disrupt social structures and destabilize political systems. An interdisciplinary research team demonstrated this using the example of the late Tang dynasty in medieval China.

Large parts of the tropics overlooked in environmental research, study says

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 01/15/2026 - 16:03
Environmental research in the tropics is heavily skewed, according to a comprehensive study led by Umeå University. Humid lowland forest ecosystems receive a disproportionate amount of attention, while colder and drier regions that are more affected by climate change are severely underrepresented.

Earth system models overestimate river flow increases, research reveals

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 01/15/2026 - 14:50
Understanding how water moves through the Earth system is fundamental to predicting climate impacts and ensuring sustainable water management. Yet despite decades of research, uncertainties persist regarding how global precipitation is partitioned into evapotranspiration and river flow—the two dominant pathways by which water returns from land to the atmosphere and oceans.

Detecting Remagnetization with Quantum Diamond Microscopy

EOS - Thu, 01/15/2026 - 14:00
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth

Magnetic mineral populations that recorded the Earth’s magnetic field during distinct stages of rock formation are often juxtaposed on micrometer-to-millimeter scales. This poses significant challenges for extracting reliable paleomagnetic information because standard methods —which measure the bulk magnetic moment of whole samples— cannot distinguish between magnetic minerals with overlapping demagnetization spectra.

The recently developed Quantum Diamond Microscope (QDM) yield micrometer-scale magnetization images of rock samples, which allow to extract individual magnetization contributions from different structures. Qi et al. [2025] demonstrate the advantage of this new approach with an example from the Troodos ophiolite, Cyprus. QDM measurements of a weakly and a strongly magnetized sample reveal magnetized structures from three distinct serpentinization episodes, from oldest to youngest: ridge-axis serpentinization (strongly magnetized sample, 90-92 Ma), recrystallization zones from mantle wedge serpentinization during subduction (weakly magnetized sample, 5.3-2.6 Ma), and meteoric-water serpentinization following surface exposure (weakly magnetized sample, <2.6 Ma). These episodes are also documented by oxygen isotope measurements indicating distinct alteration temperatures. The QDM technique can be applied to a variety of terrestrial rocks and meteorites with complex magnetization patterns which cannot be disentangled with traditional bulk measurements.

Quantum diamond microscope image of the magnetic field produced by the natural magnetization of minerals inside a rock sample from the Artemis serpentinite diapir, in its untreated from (a) and after demagnetizing the less stable magnetization components with an alternating field (b). Corresponding details from a recrystallization zone formed during subduction (5.3 to 2.6 million years ago) and from a microfracture formed during the latest stage of meteoric water serpentinization, after the rock was emplaced (<2.6 million years ago) are shown in (d, f) and (c, e), respectively. The zoomed details in (h, j) and (g, i) reveal the association between magnetite grains (light-gray structures) and magnetic signals (blue-red hues) in different microstructures. (k-n) Discrete field patterns produced by a single magnetic source, consisting of pairs of positive (red) and negative (blue) anomalies have been fitted with a magnetic dipole model, yielding the magnetization vector orientations shown in the equal area plots with geographical coordinates. Stars show the mean directions for each zone, together with their 95% confidence ellipses. Credit: Qi et al. [2025], Figure 5

Citation: Qi, L., Muxworthy, A. R., Baker, E. B., Cao, X., Allerton, S., Bryson, J. F. J., & Zhang, Y. (2025). Quantifying serpentinization-driven remagnetization from ridge axis to subduction zone using quantum diamond microscopy. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 130, e2025JB031606. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JB031606

—Ramon Egli, Associate Editor, JGR: Solid Earth

Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

The State of the Science 1 Year On: Climate Change and Energy

EOS - Thu, 01/15/2026 - 13:59
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This article is Part 2 of “The State of the Science 1 Year On,” a report from Eos and AGU.

The State of the Science 1 Year On

In the first year of his second term, President Donald Trump worked across agencies to roll back practical and political momentum to address the climate crisis.

Experts say the array of administration policies supporting the fossil fuel industry could halve U.S. progress on reducing carbon emissions, and actions such as withdrawing the United States from the Paris Agreement are projected to erase at least 0.1°C (0.18°F) of international efforts to limit warming by 2100.

Rolling Back Climate Policy

Trump’s interagency effort to roll back critical climate policies began immediately. An executive order (EO) signed on the first day of Trump’s second term titled “Unleashing American Energy” ordered additional oil and gas exploration, accelerated permitting for such drilling, eliminated credits and regulations favoring electric vehicles, and revoked 12 climate- and energy-related EOs issued by the administration of President Joe Biden.

In March, the EPA indicated it would move to reconsider the 2009 Endangerment Finding, which states that greenhouse gases “threaten the public health and welfare of current and future generations.” The Endangerment Finding underpins the federal government’s authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles, power plants, oil and gas facilities, and factories.

On 29 July, the EPA formally proposed to rescind the finding, and the Department of Energy (DOE) published a report finding that carbon dioxide–induced warming “appears to be less damaging economically than commonly believed,” that U.S. policy actions have “undetectably small direct impacts on the global climate,” and that claims of increased frequency or intensity of storms are “not supported” by historical data.

In September, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine conducted their own review, stating that “EPA’s 2009 finding that the human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases threaten human health and welfare was accurate” and is “beyond scientific dispute.” In a letter to the National Academies, House Oversight Chair James Comer (R-KY) dismissed the review as a “blatant partisan act to undermine the Trump Administration.”

In August, the American Meteorological Society published a report identifying “five foundational flaws” in the DOE report that each place the report “at odds with scientific principles and practices.”

In addition to reconsidering the Endangerment Finding, the Trump administration immediately began to dismantle the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, a $27 billion lending program meant to spur private investment in clean energy. In March, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin terminated $20 billion of this funding. Numerous lawsuits followed, but in July, Trump rescinded all funding for the program.

In February, Congress repealed a Biden era rule implementing a federal tax on methane pollution, which would have been the United States’ first tax on greenhouse gases. In June, the administration also proposed to rescind all greenhouse gas emissions standards for coal-, oil-, and gas-fired power plants.

The One Big Beautiful Bill, the omnibus spending bill that became law on 4 July, removes or rapidly phases out most clean energy, electric vehicle, and clean manufacturing tax credits introduced by Biden’s key climate bill, the Inflation Reduction Act. While reducing support for clean energy projects, the law also grants $40 billion in new subsidies and tax credits to the fossil fuel industry through 2035, according to a report from Oil Change International, an anti–fossil fuel advocacy group.

In total, the One Big Beautiful Bill is expected to cut the development of new clean-power-generating capacity by up to 59% through 2035, according to a report by the Rhodium Group. An analysis by Carbon Brief and Princeton University found the passage of the law will set the United States up to drop emissions to 3% below current levels by 2030 rather than the 40% mandated by the Paris Agreement.

In November, the EPA announced it would delay methane emissions reduction requirements set by the Biden administration, giving oil and gas companies until January 2027 to comply. In December, the White House and Department of Transportation announced a proposal to revoke vehicle fuel efficiency standards that were tightened in 2024. The administration is expected to finalize this proposal in 2026.

Boosting Fossil Fuels, Obstructing Renewables

Trump’s declaration of a “national energy emergency” gave federal agency heads authority to grant emergency approvals to expedite the completion of energy projects.

“We’re going to drill, baby, drill,” Trump said after being sworn in. That day, Trump issued an executive order (EO) to resume processing permit applications for new liquefied natural gas projects, which had been halted under Biden.

“It is the policy of the United States that coal is essential to our national and economic security.”

In an April EO seeking to revive the “beautiful clean coal industry,” the Trump administration directed agencies to identify possible new coal resources on federal lands. The order also laid out plans to identify and revise existing regulations and policies that might lead the country away from coal power or coal production. “It is the policy of the United States that coal is essential to our national and economic security,” the EO states.

Also in April, the Department of the Interior said it intended to fast-track approvals for coal, gas, oil, and mineral projects. The administration opened up millions of acres of federal land to oil and gas companies and additional millions of acres to potential coal mining projects. In September, the DOE announced it would invest $625 million to retrofit and modernize aging coal power plants, followed by an additional $100 million in federal funding for similar projects. In May, the administration ordered a coal power plant in Michigan to abandon its plans to shut down, citing a “shortage of electric energy” in the Midwest. In December, it also ordered two coal plants in Indiana, two in Colorado, and one in Washington to remain open.

Among the federal land opened to oil drilling is the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, an iconic wilderness area in northern Alaska. In October, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum announced the federal government would open 1.56 million acres (631,000 hectares) of the refuge to oil and gas leasing, reversing a Biden moratorium on drilling activity there.

In November, the administration announced it planned to open almost 1.3 billion additional acres (526 million hectares) of U.S. coastal waters to new oil and gas drilling. The One Big Beautiful Bill mandated at least 36 oil and gas lease sales in federal waters.

“An offshore lease issued next year could keep pumping carbon into the atmosphere for the next 40 years,” Rebecca Loomis, an attorney at the Natural Resources Defense Council, told The New York Times.

Renewable energy projects have mostly received the opposite treatment, as federal agencies made a concerted effort to halt existing solar and wind energy projects and slow the permitting and approval process for new ones. Trump took particular aim at wind energy: An EO on the first day of his term withdrew all new offshore wind energy lease opportunities and suggested the possibility of terminating or amending existing leases. A coalition of state attorneys sued the administration, saying Trump does not have the authority to unilaterally make such mandates. In December, a federal judge wrote that the EO violated federal law.

“This arbitrary and unnecessary directive threatens the loss of thousands of good-paying jobs and billions in investments, and it is delaying our transition away from the fossil fuels that harm our health and our planet,” New York Attorney General Letitia James said of the EO.

Solar projects have suffered, too. The Trump administration slowed development on a solar project in Nevada that, if built, would be one of the world’s largest. In October, the EPA canceled $7 billion in grants for a popular clean energy program, Solar for All, meant to help low- and moderate-income households install solar.

Oil and gas permitting, but not renewable energy permitting, continued during the 44-day government shutdown this fall, as the Trump administration approved more than 470 permits to drill on public land. After the January 2026 military action in Venezuela, President Trump announced the country “will be turning over” 30-50 million barrels of oil and that the federal government would maintain control over Venezuela’s oil industry.

Hindering Climate Science

As the Trump administration hindered clean energy projects and boosted fossil fuels, it also targeted climate science. In February, Trump prohibited federal scientists from traveling to take part in a planning meeting of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Federal scientists were reportedly told to stop work on all IPCC-related activities, though some nonfederal U.S. scientists are still involved.

In April, the administration dismissed all scientists working on the United States’ own National Climate Assessment (NCA). In July, a spokeswoman for NASA told The New York Times that NASA would no longer host previous NCAs online. AGU and the American Meteorological Society have responded by creating a special collection on climate change to help catalyze and advance synthesis science to inform our understanding of risks and solutions for U.S. climate research and assessments. In December, the Trump administration asked a group of scientists known for their climate skepticism—the same group that authored the DOE report undermining the 2009 Endangerment Finding—to write the next installment of the NCA.

Additionally, many programs and offices collecting and analyzing climate data were shuttered this year because budgets were cut and staff were fired, creating a widening climate data void. In April, for example, the EPA failed for the first time to meet the obligations of a 1992 treaty setting greenhouse gas reporting requirements for wealthy countries. The Environmental Defense Fund released the data after filing a Freedom of Information Act request. The same month, political appointees told EPA staff that they planned to virtually eliminate the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, which requires the country’s largest industrial sites to report their emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide.

“The public has a right to know how much climate pollution is being emitted.”

“The public has a right to know how much climate pollution is being emitted,” Vickie Patton, an attorney at the Environmental Defense Fund, told The New York Times. “The attack on the data, the attack on the science, is irresponsible.”

Pieces of signature energy reports from the Energy Information Administration, a data-tracking arm of the Department of Energy, were removed, while the publication of its International Energy Outlook for 2025 was scrapped.

NOAA, once identified as “one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry,” has come under intense scrutiny. Under the Trump administration, the agency ended support for key data products at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, retired its Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters data product (though the nonprofit Climate Central is bringing it back to life), suspended work on a massive dataset meant to predict extreme rainfall, and consolidated climate data hosted on Climate.gov on another NOAA domain. The administration also canceled its lease for NOAA’s Global Monitoring Laboratory in Hilo, Hawaii, an important site for scientists tracking carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Trump proposed cutting virtually all funding for climate research at NOAA, though Congress is considering spending bills that include much more modest cuts. Congress is also considering a bill that would ensure the uninterrupted storage of NOAA datasets indefinitely.

NASA’s climate programs suffered, too: This spring, the Trump administration began the process of shrinking the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, which maintains critical climate data records. And over the summer, the administration directed NASA employees to draw up plans to end satellite missions designed to monitor carbon dioxide emissions. Acting Administrator Sean Duffy made clear the agency will deprioritize all climate science.

The Department of the Interior cut funding to a third of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Climate Adaptation Science Centers, which funds projects aimed to help people, wildlife, land, and water adapt to local effects of climate change. This includes mapping risks of wildfire and flooding, maintaining infrastructure such as storm drains, and assessing fish and wildlife populations for both hunting and conservation.

The Trump administration also axed funding for the U.S. Global Change Research Program, a decades-old congressionally mandated interagency climate research program. And in November, a new organizational plan for the Energy Department no longer showed various offices that had overseen clean energy technology development.

More than 100 National Science Foundation (NSF) grants for climate-related science have been canceled as well. In December, the Trump administration announced that it would dismantle the NSF-funded National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), one of the world’s leading climate and Earth science laboratories.

The administration also systematically removed mentions of climate change and related language from agency websites and directed the Department of Energy not to use certain language, including the words “green” and “decarbonization.” The EPA also erased references linking human activities to climate change from sections of its website.

And while geoengineering has not been a priority of the Trump administration, Rep. Marjorie Tayler Greene (R-GA) introduced the Clear Skies Act in July, which would impose $100,000 fines and potential jail time for anyone conducting “weather modification” activities.

Stalling Global Progress

The Trump administration’s approach to climate and energy policy has reverberated globally. The administration’s decision to pull out of the Paris Agreement (to take effect in January 2026) will set global projected emissions back 0.1°C (0.18°F) by 2100, according to a United Nations report.

The same EO that withdraws the United States from the Paris Agreement also directs the administration to revoke contributions to international climate finance funds. This directive means the global climate finance goal agreed upon at COP29 (the 29th Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change) will be much more difficult to meet. In March, the administration also pulled the United States out of the Board of the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage, a U.N. climate damage fund created at COP28 dedicated to helping finance developing countries’ climate adaptation efforts. The same month, the United States withdrew from the Just Energy Transition Partnership, an international collaboration formed at COP26 meant to help developing countries implement clean energy.

The Trump administration did not attend COP30 in Belém, Brazil, a move that other leaders admonished. “Mr. Trump is against humankind,” said Colombian President Gustavo Petro. It was the first time in COP history that the United States did not send a delegation.

In January 2026, the White House issued an EO ordering the withdrawal of the United States from the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, a 1992 treaty that set the legal framework for international negotiations on climate change. According to the terms of the treaty, the formal withdrawal will occur one year after the government submits paperwork to the U.N., after which the United States will be the only country not engaged in the global agreement. The EO also ordered the withdrawal of the United States from the IPCC.

At an International Energy Agency meeting held in London in April, Trump administration staff members opposed policies to regulate fossil fuels. In September, Secretary of Energy Chris Wright traveled to Italy to attend the world’s largest natural gas conference. While in Europe, Wright urged European governments to ditch methane regulations, called net-zero goals “a colossal train wreck,” and downplayed the risks of climate change. “It’s turned out that not only does climate change not look to be an urgent threat…but doing something about it has proven remarkably difficult,” Wright told reporters in Brussels.

The Trump administration also attempted to use economic levers to encourage other nations to walk back their climate goals. In July, for instance, the administration agreed to reduce some tariffs on the European Union (EU) if the EU purchased $750 billion in American oil and gas. In December, the Trump administration asked the EU to exempt US oil and gas companies that sell oil and gas to Europe from European methane regulations.

Next Steps

Despite criticism of the DOE report and widespread opposition to the reconsideration of the rule—even Tesla wants to preserve it—the EPA is expected to move forward with revoking the Endangerment Finding in early 2026. The decision is expected to face serious legal challenges, and the Trump administration faces an ongoing lawsuit from the Environmental Defense Fund and the Union of Concerned Scientists over the controversial DOE report. Final repeals of federal vehicle fuel economy standards and power plant emissions limits are also expected in early 2026.

The future of climate programs like the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, Solar for All, electric vehicle infrastructure funds, and other climate-related grants likely lies in the courts, not the ballot box. Environmental groups and other stakeholders have filed multiple lawsuits challenging these actions, and they are still proceeding through the legal system. A coalition of states has even sued Trump and his administration over the president’s initial declaration of a “national energy emergency.”

Curated Links

Key resources for this report and people interested in this topic:

American Geophysical Union (2025), Science societies take action after NCA authors’ dismissal this week, 2 May, news.agu.org/press-release/agu-and-ams-join-forces-on-special-collection-to-maintain-momentum-of-research-supporting-the-u-s-national-climate-assessment/.

American Meteorological Society (2025), The practice and assessment of science: Five foundational flaws in the Department of Energy’s 2025 climate report, 27 Aug., www.ametsoc.org/ams/about-ams/ams-statements/statements-of-the-ams-in-force/the-practice-and-assessment-of-science-five-foundational-flaws-in-the-department-of-energys-2025-climate-report/.

Carbon Brief (2025), Chart: Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’ blows US emissions goal by 7bn tonnes, 4 July, www.carbonbrief.org/chart-trumps-big-beautiful-bill-blows-us-emissions-goal-by-7bn-tonnes/.

Cartier, K. M. S. (2025), NASA planning for unauthorized shutdown of carbon monitoring satellites, Eos, 5 Aug., eos.org/research-and-developments/nasa-planning-for-unauthorized-shutdown-of-carbon-monitoring-satellites.

Colman, Z. (2025), Energy Dept. adds ‘climate change’ and ‘emissions’ to banned words list, Politico, 28 Sept., www.politico.com/news/2025/09/28/energy-department-climate-change-emissions-banned-words-00583649.

Chemnick, J. (2025), Trump gutted climate rules in 2025. He could make it permanent in 2026. E&E News, 17 Dec., www.eenews.net/articles/trump-gutted-climate-rules-in-2025-he-could-make-it-permanent-in-2026/.

Dieckman, E. (2025), Executive order seeks to revive “America’s Beautiful, Clean Coal Industry,” Eos, 9 Apr., eos.org/research-and-developments/executive-order-seeks-to-revive-americas-beautiful-clean-coal-industry.

Dzomback, R. (2025), NASA website will not provide previous National Climate Reports, New York Times, 14 July, www.nytimes.com/2025/07/14/climate/nasa-website-climate-report.html.

Friedman, L. (2025), Interior Department to fast-track oil, gas and mining projects, New York Times, 23 Apr., www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/climate/interior-department-gas-and-mining-projects.html.

Janis, B., and C. Richards (2025), Who will fill the climate-data void left by the Trump administration?, Nature, 14 Nov., https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-025-03532-4.

Perez, N., and R. Waldholz (2025), Trump is withdrawing from the Paris Agreement (again), reversing U.S. climate policy, NPR, 21 Jan., www.npr.org/2025/01/21/nx-s1-5266207/trump-paris-agreement-biden-climate-change.

U.S. Department of Energy (2025), A Critical Review of Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the U.S. Climate, Climate Working Group, Washington, D.C., www.energy.gov/topics/climate.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2025), Proposed rule: Reconsideration of 2009 Endangerment Finding and greenhouse gas vehicle standards, 22 Aug., www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/proposed-rule-reconsideration-2009-endangerment-finding.

van Deelen, G. (2025), NOAA halts maintenance of key Arctic data at National Snow and Ice Data Center, Eos, 8 May, eos.org/research-and-developments/noaa-halts-maintenance-of-key-arctic-data-at-national-snow-and-ice-data-center.

van Deelen, G. (2025), Proposed NOAA budget calls for $0 for climate research, Eos, 2 July, eos.org/research-and-developments/proposed-noaa-budget-calls-for-0-for-climate-research.

van Deelen, G. (2025), Public speaks out against EPA plan to rescind Endangerment Finding, Eos, 25 Aug., eos.org/research-and-developments/public-speaks-out-against-epa-plan-to-rescind-endangerment-finding.

van Deelen, G. (2025), Trump proposes weakening fuel economy rules for vehicles, Eos, 3 Dec., eos.org/research-and-developments/trump-proposes-to-weaken-fuel-economy-rules-for-vehicles.

Waldman, S. (2025), It’s the gold standard of US climate research. Contratians could write the next one., E&E News, 22 Dec., www.eenews.net/articles/its-the-gold-standard-of-us-climate-research-contrarians-could-write-the-next-one/.

Eos (@eos.org)

Citation: AGU (2026), The state of the science 1 year on: Climate change and energy, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260002. Published on 15 January 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

The State of the Science 1 Year On: Academia and Research

EOS - Thu, 01/15/2026 - 13:59
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Part 5 of “The State of the Science 1 Year On,” a report from Eos and AGU

The State of the Science 1 Year On Overview

In its first year, the second administration of President Donald Trump has taken numerous actions, in the form of both sweeping policy initiatives and directives targeted at specific groups or institutions, to reshape academia and higher education. Many have affected academic scientists’ funding and ability to pursue their research across an array of disciplines; others have presented new challenges and burdens for current and aspiring students.

These actions have not gone unchallenged. Insiders and observers have called out threats to academic freedom and autonomy, and some schools, states, professional organizations, and individuals have pushed back on campuses and in the courts. Others have negotiated with the administration in their attempts to navigate the rapidly shifting landscape of U.S. higher education.

Funding Cuts Hit Research Hard

Among the highest-profile actions of the Trump administration aimed at academia have been its attempts to cancel or claw back billions of dollars in federal funding awarded to specific universities, including grants for scientific and medical research. The administration has also raised taxes on wealthy universities and, at times, threatened the tax-exempt status of some (most notably Harvard University) as punishments for alleged wrongdoings or ideological differences. These schools have responded in different ways to try to preserve their funding.

When the administration announced in March that it would review federal contracts and grants with Harvard—and soon thereafter demanded a litany of changes to the school’s hiring, admissions, and operations policies to “maintain Harvard’s financial relationship with the federal government”—Harvard rejected the demands, with university president Alan Garber saying the school would not “surrender its independence.” The administration countered by freezing more than $2 billion in grants. Harvard then sued, arguing the administration was improperly overreaching with its funding cuts.

Most other universities threatened with funding pullbacks have at least partially acceded to administration demands to reinstate federal research money. Columbia University agreed in July to pay a $200 million fine and change hiring and admissions practices to restore $400 million in funding. Brown University similarly made a deal to preserve more than $500 million by agreeing to make administrative policy changes and to put $50 million toward state workforce programs.

Cornell University and Northwestern University later struck agreements too.

Federal judges have handed some victories to schools, victories that may be temporary if rulings are appealed. In response to lawsuits filed by faculty groups at the University of California, Los Angeles, and the American Association of University Professors (AAUP), for example, a judge issued several orders to block a $1.2 billion fine and restore hundreds of grants from the National Science Foundation (NSF) and National Institutes of Health (NIH). And in September, Harvard prevailed in its suit against the government.

The turmoil, uncertainty, and interruptions from monthslong conflicts with the administration have slowed or stalled scientific research projects on campuses.

Even with court victories and negotiated deals reinstating funding, the turmoil, uncertainty, and interruptions from monthslong—and in some cases ongoing—conflicts with the administration have slowed or stalled scientific research projects on campuses. They have also led numerous universities and colleges to cut spending through hiring freezes and layoffs.

Academic science has been under pressure not only through the administration’s targeting of universities directly but also through its efforts to remake the federal grantmaking process, reduce the amounts and types of external research funded, and reduce budget appropriations for scientific research by more than 20% through large-scale cutbacks and reorganizations in federal science agencies. Unsurprisingly, the administration’s actions are having ripple effects for higher education, business (among companies who supply scientific products, for instance), and public health.

Substantial changes at NSF, which provides roughly a quarter of federal funds for basic research at colleges and universities, began almost immediately upon Trump’s return to office. Expert grant review panels were canceled in late January. By early February, staffers were reviewing keywords in thousands of existing projects to screen for any language that might conflict with early executive orders related to the recognition of genders and curtailing diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) efforts. Grant pauses and holdups continued through spring as reviews expanded to target awards for research on climate change, environmental and social justice, and misinformation. In May, NSF announced plans to abolish dozens of divisions. And in December, the administration said it would dismantle the NSF-sponsored National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The decision elicited strong criticism—and support for NCAR—from numerous scientists, including many attending AGU’s Annual Meeting when the announcement was made.

Despite the upheaval, NSF still provided more than $8 billion in funding in fiscal year (FY) 2025, according to an analysis by Science. Yet the many changes in grant reviews and awards slowed the process considerably and created confusion both within the agency and among researchers who depend on it. The changes also led to the termination of thousands of existing grants as well as a 20% reduction in the number of new grants awarded.

Other agencies experienced upheavals in funding, grantmaking, and staffing. At NOAA, these upheavals included the proposal to eliminate the agency’s primary research arm (the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) as well as funding for climate research facilities and grants. Further, multiple key datasets and data products used by scientists, decisionmakers, and companies—such as the Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters product and the Sea Ice Index (maintained by the National Snow and Ice Data Center)—have been discontinued or lost support. These losses prompted grassroots efforts by scientists and institutions both domestically and internationally, as well as a push in Congress, to preserve imperiled datasets.

At NASA, concerns over near-term funding and policy directions led to delayed calls for grant requests, a decrease in grants awarded, substantial staff cuts, and facility closures. Uncertainties about the status of ongoing and future science missions have also left the availability of mission datasets up in the air.

Meanwhile, the Department of Energy (DOE), the country’s single biggest funding agency for physical science, is collapsing six scientific panels into a single Office of Science Advisory Committee. The new committee will, according to an agency statement, still include “leaders from academia, industry, and National Laboratories,” but the news left some scientists concerned about losing important avenues of input to the agency and the possibility that political appointees may have greater say over DOE science.

At the EPA and NIH, too, significant reductions in force, uncertainty stemming from proposals to end data collection (e.g., through EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program), and changes and cutbacks in grantmaking are affecting research inside and outside these agencies. EPA and NIH each ended hundreds of awards, most supporting work on administration-targeted topics such as environmental justice, climate, DEI, and transgender health.

However, federal judges halted some grant terminations, and NIH agreed to review grant proposals that were previously denied, withdrawn, or frozen because of administration directives.

To go along with the thousands of individual research projects lost or limited by terminated grants, cuts at federal agencies have also hit projects involving and serving scientists across sectors. Support has been pulled for, among other projects, the Cosmic Microwave Background Stage 4, which would have built new radio telescopes to detect clues about the origins of the universe, as well as the country’s only icebreaker supporting Antarctic research.

And in April, the government announced it was canceling funding for and releasing scientists involved in producing the next National Climate Assessment (NCA), due to be released in 2028. Published quadrennially through the U.S. Global Change Research Program (which the administration also ended), the previous five NCAs represented the consensus, science-based evaluation of how climate change is and will continue affecting the country’s environment, economy, and people. In response to the cancellation, AGU and the American Meteorological Society announced they were partnering to create a special research collection “to sustain the momentum of the sixth National Climate Assessment almost a year into the process.”

New Obstacles for Students

A signature goal of Trump’s second administration—and one that was aggressively advanced during its first year—is to dismantle the Department of Education (ED) as much as possible.

In mid-February, Linda McMahon, during her confirmation hearing to become secretary of education, signaled how the administration would aim to relocate ED programs to other departments. That announcement came on the heels of hundreds of millions of dollars in cuts to an ED office tracking student progress and Trump saying he wanted McMahon to “put herself out of a job.” In March, an executive order directed McMahon to “facilitate the closure” of ED.

Authority to abolish the department ultimately rests with Congress, but the administration has nonetheless been able to push its agenda forward through dramatic cuts and reorganizations. It reshaped department advisory boards, for example, such as those focused on education science and the accreditation of higher education institutions. The administration also ended funding to grant programs designated specifically for minority-serving institutions and selectively terminated or rejected grants to schools that mentioned DEI in their grant applications.

In November, ED said it would move several offices, including the Office of Postsecondary Education, to the Department of Labor (DOL). Critics argued that moving programs does little to clear red tape and instead imperils services because DOL is not equipped to run them.

Disruptions to federal education funding are not limited to ED. After NSF gave out far fewer awards than usual through its Graduate Research Fellowship Program (GRFP) in the spring, for example, its months-delayed release of guidance for the next round of awards caused substantial confusion among would-be applicants. When the GRFP guidance was released in September, students learned they had less time than usual to complete applications and that second-year Ph.D. students were no longer eligible to apply.

The major shift in GRFP policy left thousands of budding scientists—some of whom purposefully waited until their second year of graduate school to apply to improve their chances of success—without an opportunity to even be considered. Earlier in the year, funding uncertainties at NSF also frustrated undergraduates as the agency reduced support to schools through its Research Experiences for Undergraduates program.

The One Big Beautiful Bill, signed into law in July, as well as subsequent decisions made significant changes to student loan and loan forgiveness plans, including borrowing maximums, the types and lengths of loan repayment plans available, and student eligibility for Pell Grants. And even before July, administration moves to slow or stop the application process for loan forgiveness under certain conditions led to new confusion for borrowers and drew a lawsuit from the American Federation of Teachers, which resulted in a settlement to resume processing loan forgiveness applications.

International students already in the United States or looking to apply have found themselves in limbo as well because of the administration’s approaches to immigration, research security, and other concerns. Early in the year, alongside incidents of international students being arrested and detained, the administration revoked visas for more than 1,500 students. These actions sowed confusion and fear among the nation’s international student body, which numbers more than 1 million. International students account for only about 6% of enrollment in U.S. colleges but make up the majority in many graduate science, technology, engineering, and mathematics fields.

Even after restoring most of the canceled visas in April, the administration suggested it would continue pursuing revocations. Indeed, just a month later it announced it would temporarily stop scheduling interviews for new student visas and would start revoking visas for Chinese students studying in “critical fields” out of concern that these students’ access to U.S. training and funding were benefiting China’s government.

These measures appear to have had a chilling effect on the interest or ability of students from abroad to study in the United States. International student applications dropped 9% compared to the prior year, according to the Institute of International Education, and the size of the international student body in graduate programs dropped by 12%.

The new obstacles for both domestic and international students, combined with lost funding and research support, contributed to decisions by graduate programs at many schools to scale back or altogether forgo admissions of new students. “If this keeps up,” one scientist told Nature, “it would be really devastating for the field, because this is where the next generation of experts comes from.”

Fears for Academic Freedom

Many of the Trump administration’s actions regarding higher education and academic research have been aimed at pressuring the administrators and faculty to reshape their schools’ curricula and programming.

Many of the Trump administration’s actions regarding higher education and academic research have been aimed at pressuring administrators and faculty to reshape their schools’ curricula and programming. Critics saw these actions as open threats to academic freedom.

In May, Trump issued an executive order on “Restoring Gold Standard Science.” It calls out a supposed crisis of public confidence in science amid perceived misuses of data and purportedly seeks to bolster research that is reproducible and transparent. Although these are widely accepted qualities of good science, critics argued the order would only undermine confidence in science while opening the door to greater administration control over federally funded research.

In August, Trump issued another, more focused executive order on “Improving Oversight of Federal Grantmaking,” which stipulates that senior political appointees review and approve new funding opportunities and grant applications.

When the president threatened to punish university accrediting organizations for focusing on DEI-related criteria, the AAUP accused the administration of weaponizing the accreditation process and called it “another attempt to dictate what is taught, learned, said and done by college students and instructors.”

Trump’s campaign to reshape universities reached a crescendo in early October when it sent letters to nine schools asking them to sign a “Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education.”

Trump’s 2025 campaign to reshape universities reached a crescendo in early October when it sent letters to nine schools asking them to sign a “Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education” in exchange for “multiple positive benefits.” The compact comprised a long list of administration goals, such as banning consideration of demographics in admissions, aid, and hiring decisions; ending “institutional units that purposefully punish, belittle, and even spark violence against conservative ideas”; and recognizing strict definitions of gender. The compact’s touted benefits included greater access to funding, higher payments for overhead costs, and administration acknowledgment that schools “are complying with civil rights law and pursuing Federal priorities with vigor.”

Seven of the nine schools rejected the letter soon after receiving it, and reactions from the higher education community to the compact, which the administration indicated could be extended to any interested schools, were overwhelmingly negative.

Many university leaders, education organizations, and faculty and student groups voiced alarm, for example, about clear infringements on academic freedom (the document explicitly states that “academic freedom is not absolute”) and the fact that the compact would reward schools on the basis of loyalty to the administration rather than merit. Some schools, however, engaged with the administration to provide feedback about the initial compact and have been reluctant to share details of their positions; a few expressed interest in signing it.

The administration has also sought to oust specific administrators and pressure researchers into compliance. The administration’s attacks on University of Virginia president James Ryan over the school’s DEI programming, for example, led Ryan to resign in June. Individual academics, particularly those researching misinformation, cybersecurity, and other politically sensitive topics, were also targeted and, at times, succumbed to pressure to leave their positions.

Another thrust of the pressure campaign on researchers has involved examining and limiting their freedom to work with foreign scientists, as well as influencing foreign scientists themselves. In May, for example, NIH announced a new policy barring scientists from providing funding—in the form of subawards from grants given to U.S. researchers—to international collaborators. In the fall, Congress considered legislation amounting to an outright prohibition on U.S. scientists collaborating with researchers or advising students “affiliated with a hostile foreign entity,” specifically China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia.

That bill drew substantial pushback from academia and failed to gain traction, although in December, the House passed the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, which still includes security restrictions for U.S. researchers.

Some foreign scientists themselves have been subjected to sweeping travel bans and denials of entry into the United States for allegedly criticizing the Trump administration. Scientists abroad who receive U.S. funding were sent surveys probing whether their research aligns with the administration’s agenda. In addition, foreign scientists seeking employment in the United States, including as postdocs and faculty at universities, now face a much steeper barrier to entry because of a new policy requiring employers to pay $100,000—instead of just a few thousand dollars—to secure an H-1B visa for their would-be hire.

Meanwhile, numerous U.S.-based researchers have contemplated trying to find employment in other countries, raising widespread concerns of a brain drain from the country’s scientific enterprise. In March, Nature reported that 75% of roughly 1,600 respondents to a poll they conducted said they were “considering leaving the United States following the disruptions prompted by Trump.” And spurred by interest from other countries—from Canada to Europe to Asia—to entice U.S scientists with opportunities for employment abroad, at least some scientists have departed.

Resolute Resistance

The array of actions taken by the Trump administration to impose its will on the academic community prompted strong resistance and a multitude of rebuttals, many taking shape in courtrooms.

Major private and public universities initiated or joined lawsuits to try to win back canceled grants and contracts, challenge a cap on reimbursements, and fight limitations on enrolling international students.

Major private and public universities initiated or joined lawsuits to try to win back canceled grants and contracts, challenge caps on reimbursements of research overhead costs, and fight limitations on enrolling international students.

Organizations representing higher education—such as AAUP, the Association of American Universities, and the American Association of Colleges and Universities—issued multiple statements about executive orders and the administration’s punitive actions against universities. Some organizations also led legal challenges.

State governments, too, joined forces to fight the administration’s education cuts in court. Some have also tried to fill gaps created by the cuts, such as in Oregon, where lawmakers looked to preserve and expand education programs like the state’s Tribal Student Grant program.

In many cases, faculty themselves stepped up to call individuals and their institutions to action and take the government to court. In April, more than 1,900 scientists—all elected members of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine—signed an open letter calling out the “real danger” posed to science by the administration’s actions. The same month, faculty groups at Big Ten universities began issuing resolutions asking their institutions to enter a mutual defense pact under which they could pool legal and financial resources in the event the administration targeted any of the schools.

Individual researchers have also instigated lawsuits to fight grant terminations they said were unjust and unexplained. Four scientists from institutions across the country, for example, joined with several organizations to file suit over terminated NIH and NSFgrants. (An initial U.S. District Court ruling in their favor was partly put on hold by the Supreme Court.)

In another case, a federal judge sided in June with a small group of researchers from the University of California, Berkeley, who, aided by colleagues from the university’s law school, sued over their own canceled grants. Alongside these legal challenges, other researchers have entered the fray by helping to track and organize information about terminated grants and by ramping up efforts to communicate about their science directly to the public.

What’s on the Horizon?

The first year of the second Trump administration was a colossal shock to the higher education system in the United States. The second year may follow suit. The lasting effects of the record-long 43-day federal shutdown will not be clear for weeks or months. The shutdown cut off communications with furloughed federal researchers, halted processing of grant applications, and, in some cases, limited researchers’ ability to draw existing grant funds.

Uncertainties around funding have been compounded by the fact that Congress has not settled on a full FY2026 budget and that it faces the potential for another shutdown in late January. House and Senate versions of the budget include substantially higher funding for science than was included in Trump’s budget request, but specific allocations remain unknown. Furthermore, numerous lawsuits challenging the legality of recent executive orders and administration efforts to cancel grants, curtail specific fields of research, and limit who is eligible for future funding—and even just to be on U.S. campuses—are still working their way through the courts. Rulings to date have predominantly been in favor of plaintiffs, a good sign for higher education institutions, but their ultimate outcomes are yet to be seen.

Curated Links

Key resources for this report and people interested in this topic:

American Council on Education (2025), Higher education & the Trump administration, www.acenet.edu/Policy-Advocacy/Pages/2025-Trump-Administration-Transition.aspx.

Blake, J. (2025), Tracking key lawsuits against the Trump administration, Inside Higher Ed, 17 Nov., www.insidehighered.com/news/government/politics-elections/2025/09/30/tracking-key-lawsuits-against-trump-administration.

Blinder, A. (2025), How universities are responding to Trump, New York Times, 7 Nov., www.nytimes.com/article/trump-university-college.html.

Garisto, D., M. Kozlov, and H. Ledford (2025), Scientists take on Trump: These researchers are fighting back, Nature, 645, 298–300, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-025-02811-4.

Herrman, J. (2025), Politicizing the federal grantmaking process, Government Executive, 19 Aug., www.govexec.com/management/2025/08/politicizing-federal-grantmaking-process/407558/.

Jones, B. (2025), AGU and AMS join forces on special collection to maintain research momentum supporting the US National Climate assessment, From the Prow, 2 May, fromtheprow.agu.org/nca-science-will-not-be-silenced/.

Jones, B. (2025), All that’s gold does not glitter, From the Prow, 20 Aug., fromtheprow.agu.org/all-thats-gold-does-not-glitter/.

Moldwin, M. (2025), Senior scientists must stand up against attacks on research and education, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250180.

National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities (2025), Executive orders affecting higher education, www.naicu.edu/policy-advocacy/advocacy-resources/fact-sheet-executive-orders-affecting-higher-education/.

Ro, C. (2025), The economic effects of federal cuts to US science — in 24 graphs, Nature, 25 June, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-025-01830-5.

van Deelen, G. (2025), U.S. National Climate Assessment likely dead after contract canceled, Eos, 9 Apr., eos.org/research-and-developments/u-s-national-climate-assessment-likely-dead-after-contract-canceled.

van Deelen, G. (2025), Universities reject Trump funding deal, Eos, 17 Oct., eos.org/research-and-developments/universities-reject-trump-funding-deal.

Wallack, T., M. Javaid, and S. Svrluga (2025), How foreign student enrollment is shifting in the U.S., in 6 charts, Washington Post, 17 Nov., www.washingtonpost.com/education/2025/11/17/foreign-student-enrollment-data/.

Witze, A. (2025), 75% of US scientists who answered Nature poll consider leaving, Nature, 640, 298–299, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-025-00938-y.

Eos (@eos.org)

Citation: AGU (2026), The state of the science 1 year on: Academia, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260005. Published on 15 January 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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The State of the Science 1 Year On: Environment

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Part 6 of “The State of the Science 1 Year On,” a report from Eos and AGU

The State of the Science 1 Year On Overview

Both on the campaign trail and during his time in office, President Donald Trump has spoken about wanting clean air and water for Americans. He even established a Make America Beautiful Again Commission and called himself an environmentalist.

He has also rescinded executive orders from past presidents aimed at protecting the environment, made “drill, baby, drill” one of his catchphrases, and described the concept of a carbon footprint as “a hoax made up by people with evil intentions.”

Since Trump took office in his second term, his administration has worked to roll back environmental protections. This work has included efforts to fast-track permits for mining, oil and gas exploration, and artificial intelligence infrastructure; changing pollution limits and reporting requirements; curtailing protections for public lands; and even narrowing the scope of the Endangered Species Act.

Air and Water Quality

Scientists play an important role in monitoring and protecting the quality of our nation’s air and water. Funding and staffing cuts have made this work increasingly difficult to do.

The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), Trump’s omnibus spending bill for fiscal year 2026, suggests eliminating the research arm of NOAA and closing all weather and climate labs. It also includes a $2.46 billion cut to EPA’s Clean and Drinking Water State Revolving Funds, $1.01 billion in cuts to categorical grants that fund air and water quality efforts, and $721 million in cuts to the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development Program, which includes support to repair water systems damaged by disasters.

“Trump’s plan to virtually eliminate federal funding for clean, safe water represents a malevolent disregard for public health,” said Food & Water Watch executive director Wenonah Hauter in a statement.

The budget also eliminates the launch of a planned NOAA satellite, part of Geostationary Extended Observations, that would measure pollution, including from wildfire smoke, from space.

Independent of the proposed budget, the Trump administration also ordered the closure of 25 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Water Science Centers, which monitor U.S. waters for flooding and drought, as well as manage supply levels.

At NOAA’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, funding cuts have made it difficult for staff to purchase equipment. A 35% staff cut reduced scientists’ capacity to monitor the region’s harmful algal blooms, which can cause illness in humans and death in animals.

A common tactic by the Trump administration has been to shift pollution limits (or proposed limits) and to reduce the requirements for some entities to self-report pollution statistics. For instance, in May, the EPA announced that it would reconsider the limits for four per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in drinking water. PFAS are “forever chemicals” linked to developmental delays in children, cancer, and reduced fertility. Months later, however, the EPA announced that it would uphold a Biden era rule that holds polluters accountable for PFAS and perfluorooctanoic acid contamination.

In September, the administration proposed narrowing the scope of safety review for some chemicals already on the market, including formaldehyde and asbestos, a move praised by the chemical industry.

Also in September, provisions in the House and Senate annual Defense authorization bills sought to delay the phaseout of PFAS in the Pentagon. Jared Hayes, a senior policy analyst at the Environmental Working Group, told The Hill that such a delay would increase contamination, “essentially condemning more defense communities and another generation of service members.” Lawmakers across the country questioned the move in a formal letter to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The Department of Defense (now also known as the Department of War) also changed the timeline for cleanup of PFAS at more than 100 military sites around the country—in some cases by up to a decade, reported The New York Times.

In September, the EPA withdrew a proposed rule that would have tightened water pollution limits for slaughterhouses, which in 2019 released more than 28 million pounds (almost 13 million kilograms) of nutrients that can contaminate drinking water.

The cleanup of an oil spill in Louisiana, which left some residents’ homes and water supply contaminated, faced delays in September, in part because of funding cuts. A letter to the EPA from the Louisiana Environmental Action Network stated that people were reporting negative health effects daily.

In November, the EPA ended a Biden era rule that strengthened regulations on soot. The EPA previously predicted that the change would prevent up to 4,500 premature deaths in 2032, when the rule was scheduled to be fully in effect. Then, in December, the EPA proposed a revision to its assessment of the health risks of formaldehyde that would double the amount of the cancer-causing toxin considered safe to inhale.

Public Lands and Waters

Reorganization of the Department of the Interior, budget cuts to programs intended to protect national parks and federal lands, and narrowing the scope of the Endangered Species Act have threatened public lands, waters, and wetlands in the United States—and the creatures that call them home.

Texas oil executive Tyler Hassen was tasked with reorganizing the Interior Department in May. After leading a massive consolidation effort, he left the department in November, as reported by E&E News. Plans to lay off more than 2,000 workers were temporarily paused by a federal judge in October.

In June, the Department of Justice reversed a 1938 legal opinion by determining that Trump has the authority to abolish protected areas that past presidents designated as national monuments. Also in June, a Republican senator added a proposal to the OBBB that would allow the U.S. Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management to sell off 2 million to 3 million acres (1.2 million hectares) of federal land. The proposal faced widespread backlash and was promptly removed.

In the summer, the U.S. Department of Agriculture proposed rescinding the 2001 Roadless Area Conservation Rule, which protects about 45 million acres of National Forest System lands from road construction, reconstruction, and timber harvests. Nearly 224,000 people and organizations spoke out about the issue during the public comment period. According to the Center for Western Priorities, an environmental group, about 99% of the comments opposed the repeal.

“The Roadless Rule is one of the best ideas the U.S. Forest Service has ever had and repealing it is one of the worst,” said Vera Smith, national forests and public lands program director at Defenders of Wildlife, in a statement.

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum also proposed rescinding a public land management rule that made conservation a “use” of public lands in the same way that drilling and other extractive industries are considered uses.

The government is also transferred 760 acres of public land in California to the Navy to establish a “National Defense Area” in December and is considering giving 775 acres of the Lower Rio Grande Valley National Wildlife Refuge in Texas to SpaceX.

The administration has also aimed to reduce or eliminate protections for U.S. waters and wetlands. In April, Trump signed an executive order opening a protected area of the central Pacific Ocean to commercial fishing. In November, the administration announced a proposal to redefine “waters of the United States” in a way that would eliminate protections for about 85% of the nation’s wetlands and more than 70% of the Colorado River’s flow sources.

Rollbacks in protections for public lands and waters often come with harms for the creatures living in these habitats, but the current administration has also introduced legislation that could have more direct effects on plants and animals. In August, the Department of Homeland Security waived protections provided by the Endangered Species Act and other statues in Texas’s Lower Rio Grande Valley National Wildlife Refuge to expedite construction of a border wall.

In April, the Department of the Interior proposed redefining “harm” under the Endangered Species Act. The new definition would include only taking direct, intentional action to kill or injure endangered or threatened species. It would no longer include “significant habitat modification or degradation” that leads to such ends, which was included in the 1973 passage of the act and upheld in a 1995 ruling. “What they’re proposing will just fundamentally upend how we’ve been protecting endangered species in this country,” Noah Greenwald, codirector of endangered species at the Center for Biological Diversity, told The Los Angeles Times.

Fast-Tracking Permits

The Trump administration has reduced or eliminated many existing procedures meant to limit the environmental harm of development projects.

The 1970 National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requires federal agencies to assess the environmental effects of potential projects. Environmental impact statements are required if a proposed action is expected to have a “significant effect” on the environment. The act includes a public comment period, but 2025 changes to NEPA procedures have shortened notice and public comment periods.

“This disastrous decision to undermine our nation’s bedrock environmental law means our air and water will be more polluted, the climate and extinction crises will intensify, and people will be less healthy.”

In January, the administration finalized plans to rescind NEPA-related regulations.

In May, the Supreme Court limited the scope of environmental reviews with a ruling about a proposed railway in Utah.

“This disastrous decision to undermine our nation’s bedrock environmental law means our air and water will be more polluted, the climate and extinction crises will intensify, and people will be less healthy,” Wendy Park, a lawyer with the Center for Biological Diversity, said in a statement.

In July, Trump issued an executive order to accelerate federal permitting of infrastructure for data centers, which can use more than a million gallons of water per day. In August, another executive order authorized the secretary of transportation to “eliminate or expedite” environmental reviews for commercial space launch and reentry permits.

The administration has also made efforts to expedite permitting for mining projects, vowing to reduce a sometimes yearslong process down “to just 28 days at most.” In May, the Interior Department announced plans to complete the environmental assessment for the Velvet-Wood mine project in Utah in just 2 weeks. Construction of the mine, which is set to extract uranium and vanadium, began in November.

“Beautiful Clean Coal”

According to the 2024 Global Carbon Budget, coal is responsible for 41% of global fossil carbon dioxide emissions. It also emits chemicals that are harmful to human health, such as sulfur dioxides and heavy metals. Reliance on coal in the United Staes has been falling for decades: In 2001, about 51% of the country’s net electricity generation came from coal. By 2023, the figure had dropped to 16.2%.

However, a boom in building artificial intelligence data centers, supported by the administration, threatens to reverse the decline, E&E News reported.

An April executive order focused on reviving the coal industry laid out plans to enable coal mining on federal lands and revise regulations aimed at transitioning the country away from coal production. The order also designated coal as a critical mineral.

The same month, the administration exempted at least 66 coal plants from Biden era requirements to reduce emissions of toxins such as mercury and arsenic.

Georgia resident Andrea Goolsby told E&E News she was relieved when Georgia Power announced the retirement of a nearby coal plant in 2022. But in January, the utility company announced that the plant would stay open until 2039, and in April, it became one of the 66 plants exempted from emission reduction requirements.

“It feels like we’re going back in time…I don’t understand why they are giving pollution passes that affect people’s health.”

“It feels like we’re going back in time,” Goolsby told E&E. “I don’t understand why they are giving pollution passes that affect people’s health.”

In November, the EPA proposed delaying the closure of coal ash ponds—which are leaking materials such as arsenic and lead into surrounding groundwater—at 11 coal power plants until October 2031.

A March executive order demanded action to increase production of minerals more generally, including uranium, potash, gold, and critical minerals. In November, that list of critical minerals grew by 10, bringing the total to 60. Among the additions were copper, lead, silver, and uranium.

The administration has also worked to expand the scope of where mining occurs.

A provision in the OBBB, for instance, aimed to end a 20-year moratorium on mining in Minnesota’s popular Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness. The language was removed by a House committee before the OBBB was signed into law, but the Trump administration announced plans to end the moratorium anyway.

The Trump administration’s efforts to expand mining stretch beyond land and, indeed, beyond the borders of the United States. An April executive order called for expediting the permitting process for companies to mine the deep sea in areas both within and beyond national jurisdiction. In late December, the administration announced it was formally considering permit applications for seafloor mining and that it would hold public hearings on the applications in late January 2026.

Looking Ahead

The Trump administration announces changes to environmental policy almost daily, and their effects often don’t manifest immediately.

In November, the Energy Department posted a revised organizational chart that among other changes, no longer displays the Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations. It remains to be seen how this cut will affect the mission of the department, which has seen a roughly 20% reduction in its workforce over the past year, according to The New York Times. The same month, the Interior Department proposed opening up the coastal waters of California and Florida to offshore oil drilling, a plan that was met with opposition by the governors of both states. Potential health and economic costs aside, scientists and other stakeholders are concerned that the “continued politicization of science-based policy making threatens our environmental resilience, particularly in the face of climate change,” wrote hydrologist Adam Ward.

Curated Links

Key resources for this report and people interested in this topic:

Center for Western Priorities (2025), Comment analysis finds over 99% opposition to repealing 2001 roadless rule, 19 Sept., westernpriorities.org/2025/09/comment-analysis-finds-over-99-opposition-to-repealing-2001-roadless-rule/.

Daly, M. (2025), Trump exempts nearly 70 coal plants from Biden-era rule on mercury and other toxic air pollution, Associated Press, 15 April, apnews.com/article/trump-coal-power-plants-epa-exemptions-zeldin-2cd9f2697b5f46a88ab9882ab6fd1641.

Environmental Integrity (2025), Cuts to State Environmental Agencies Compound Damage from
Trump’s Dismantling of EPA, 10 Dec., https://environmentalintegrity.org/news/cuts-to-state-environmental-agencies-compound-damage-from-trumps-dismantling-of-epa/

Gardner, E. (2025), Judge stops shutdown-related RIFs indefinitely, Eos, 28 Oct., eos.org/research-and-developments/judge-stops-shutdown-related-rifs-indefinitely.

Gelles, D. (2025), Trump’s environmental claims ignore decades of climate science, New York Times, 29 Oct., www.nytimes.com/2024/10/29/climate/donald-trump-climate-change-claims.html.

Gladstone, S. (2025), Trump’s 2026 budget plan nearly eliminates federal funding for clean water in America, Food & Water Watch, 2 May, www.foodandwaterwatch.org/2025/05/02/trumps-2026-budget-plan-nearly-eliminates-federal-funding-for-clean-water-in-america/.

Liptak, A. (2025), Supreme Court curbs scope of environmental reviews, New York Times, 29 May, www.nytimes.com/2025/05/29/us/politics/supreme-court-environmental-reviews.html.

Moreno, I. (2025), New tools show how Trump EPA funding cuts harms communities, Natural Resources Defense Council, 16 Sept., www.nrdc.org/press-releases/new-tools-show-how-trump-epa-funding-cuts-harms-communities.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2025), EPA & Army Corps unveil clear, durable WOTUS proposal, 17 Nov., www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-army-corps-unveil-clear-durable-wotus-proposal.

van Deelen, G. (2025), EPA to abandon stricter PM2.5 air pollution limits, Eos, 26 Nov., eos.org/research-and-developments/epa-to-abandon-stricter-pm2-5-air-pollution-limits.

Vought, R.T. (2025), FY2026 budget recommendations, Office of Management and Budget, Washington, D.C., 2 May, www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Fiscal-Year-2026-Discretionary-Budget-Request.pdf.

Eos (@eos.org)

Citation: AGU (2026), The state of the science 1 year on: Environment, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260006. Published on 15 January 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

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Publication date: Available online 12 January 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Zhixi Nie, Zihan Wang, Zhenjie Wang, Ying Xu

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