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We Are “Living Beyond Our Hydrological Means,” UN Report Warns

Tue, 01/20/2026 - 18:20
body {background-color: #D2D1D5;} Research & Developments is a blog for brief updates that provide context for the flurry of news that impacts science and scientists today.

Humanity has overspent and depleted freshwater in the world’s aquifers, glaciers, wetlands, and other natural reservoirs to an irreversible degree, according to a new United Nations report.

The report, published by United Nations University’s Institute for Water, Environment and Health, argues that “water bankruptcy” is the only appropriate way to describe the reality of Earth’s water resources. 

The authors define water bankruptcy as a state of irreversible damage to human-water systems in which long-term water use has exceeded renewable inflows and safe depletion limits. “Water crisis,” which indicates a reversible condition, is no longer an accurate description of the world’s water situation, they write: “What appears on the surface as a crisis is, in fact, a new baseline.”

Water stress, water crisis, and water bankruptcy all refer to different states of concern in water-human systems. Credit: United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment, and Health

“Many critical water systems are already bankrupt,” lead author Kaveh Madani, director of UNU-INWEH, said in a statement.“Enough critical systems around the world have crossed these thresholds. These systems are interconnected through trade, migration, climate feedbacks, and geopolitical dependencies, so the global risk landscape is now fundamentally altered.”

This water bankruptcy is particularly evident in the Middle East and North Africa, where climate vulnerability, decreasing agricultural productivity, and sand and dust storms also threaten livelihoods and economies, the report states.

Widespread groundwater depletion, water overallocation, land and soil degradation, deforestation, and pollution are all contributing to depleted freshwater stores. Climate change has exacerbated these issues by worsening droughts and upending typical weather patterns.

The authors write that 70% of major aquifers worldwide are showing long-term decline, 75% of humanity lives in a water-insecure or critically water-insecure country, and 4 billion people face severe water scarcity for at least one month each year. 

Overall water risk, reflecting the value of physical water quantity, water quality, and regulatory and reputational risks, is greatest in North Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia. Credit: United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment, and Health

“Millions of farmers are trying to grow more food from shrinking, polluted, or disappearing water sources,” Madani said. “Without rapid transitions toward water-smart agriculture, water bankruptcy will spread rapidly.”

 
Related

Though water bankruptcy is irreversible, the report spells out possible ways to mitigate the crisis and protect against worsening water deficits, including implementing better wetland protections, reforming irrigation practices, and rebalancing water rights and expectations to match the degraded capacity of the world’s aquifers.

The report is intended to inform discussions at the 2026 UN Water Conference in the United Arab Emirates in December.

—Grace van Deelen (@gvd.bsky.social), Staff Writer

These updates are made possible through information from the scientific community. Do you have a story about science or scientists? Send us a tip at eos@agu.org. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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Los glaciares se están calentando más lentamente de lo esperado, pero no por mucho tiempo

Tue, 01/20/2026 - 13:56

This is an authorized translation of an Eos article. Esta es una traducción al español autorizada de un artículo de Eos.

El mundo se está calentando, pero las temperaturas de verano en la ladera sur del monte Everest, medidas continuamente por el Laboratorio Pyramid desde 1994, han descendido en los últimos 15 años.

¿El motivo? Los vientos fríos descendentes, causados por el aumento de las diferencias de temperatura entre el aire más cálido que se encuentra por encima del glaciar y la masa de aire en contacto directo con la superficie helada del glaciar.

Estos vientos catabáticos crean un efecto de enfriamiento alrededor de los glaciares de montaña, explicó Thomas Shaw, glaciólogo del Instituto de Ciencia y Tecnología de Austria. “Se derriten más lentamente de lo que lo harían si hubiera una correspondencia uno a uno entre la temperatura atmosférica y la temperatura de la capa límite del glaciar”.

Los científicos han tomado nota de este fenómeno desde finales de 1990, pero hasta ahora los estudios se han limitado a glaciares específicos.

Para comprender el alcance del fenómeno y los factores que influyen en él a escala global, Shaw y sus colegas recopilaron y analizaron un conjunto de datos de 62 glaciares a través de 169 campañas glaciares, lo que asciende a un volumen sin precedentes de 3.7 millones de horas de datos de temperatura del aire.

Mientras muchos de los datos eran fácilmente accesibles, algunos eran “casi como si estuvieran escritos en la parte de atrás de una servilleta”, dijo Shaw, que fue capaz de incluir datos sin publicar de otros investigadores. “Hay que enviar muchos correos electrónicos, hacer clic, buscar, investigar y pensar: Ah, recuerdo que alguien publicó algo sobre esto”.

Cambio en las proyecciones

El estudio, publicado en Nature Climate Change, encontró que la capa límite del glaciar se calienta una media de 0.83 °C por cada grado de calentamiento ambiental.

“Este no es el único proceso que afecta al deshielo de los glaciares, pero es uno importante del que antes no teníamos pruebas”, mencionó Inés Dussaillant, glacióloga del Centro de Investigación en Ecosistemas de la Patagonia en Chile, que no participó en el estudio.

“Esto podría cambiar nuestras proyecciones…y los informes del IPCC sobre la evolución futura de los glaciares o la contribución al nivel del mar.”

Actualmente, este efecto no se tiene en cuenta al momento de modelar cómo cambiarán los glaciares con el tiempo, según Harry Zekollari, glaciólogo de la Universidad Libre de Bruselas (Bélgica), que no participó en el estudio. “Puede cambiar nuestras proyecciones y cómo las elaboramos, y puede cambiar las proyecciones y los reportes [Grupo Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre el Cambio Climático] sobre la evolución futura de los glaciares o la contribución al nivel del mar”.

De acuerdo con el análisis de Shaw, los principales factores que impulsan el efecto de enfriamiento son la diferencia de temperatura entre la capa límite del glaciar y el aire circundante, el tamaño del glaciar y la humedad. La capa de escombros que cubre el glaciar y los fuertes vientos sinópticos dificultan el efecto.

Este fenómeno significa que el aumento de la temperatura ambiente en realidad aumenta el efecto de enfriamiento en los glaciares grandes, pero solo hasta cierto punto. “Los glaciares no están protegidos por esto; no se están enfriando. Es un término un poco engañoso”, afirmó Shaw. Aunque se están derritiendo más lentamente de lo que cabría esperar con un calentamiento lineal, el efecto sigue siendo considerable. El estudio proyecta que, a nivel mundial, estos efectos de enfriamiento cerca de la superficie alcanzarán su punto máximo a finales de la década de 2030, a medida que aumenten las temperaturas.

A medida que los glaciares se reduzcan de tamaño, dejarán de generar vientos catabáticos y su ritmo de calentamiento comenzará a reflejar las temperaturas ambientales. Según el estudio, esto provocará un deshielo acelerado a partir de mediados de siglo.

Se va, se va, se fue

Shaw y sus coautores notaron grandes variaciones regionales en los datos. Si bien no se espera que el efecto de enfriamiento alcance su punto máximo hasta la década de 2090 en los glaciares de Nueva Zelanda y el sur de los Andes, es probable que los glaciares de Europa central ya hayan superado este punto y se estén deteriorando a un ritmo cada vez mayor.

Los resultados del estudio coinciden con otros hallazgos. A principios de este año, un estudio sobre los cambios en la masa glaciar mundial encontró que Europa central perdió el 39% de su masa de hielo entre 2000 y 2023, lo que la convierte en la peor de las 19 regiones estudiadas.

Un ejemplo claro es el Pasterze, un glaciar austriaco en el que se iniciaron las investigaciones sobre el fenómeno del enfriamiento en la década de 1990. “ Este glaciar era antes mucho más grande y presentaba un efecto de enfriamiento catabático mucho más intenso. Ahora se está desintegrando muy rápidamente”, afirmó Shaw, notando que probablemente no seguirá siendo el glaciar más grande de Austria durante mucho tiempo. “Ya se está mostrando evidencia de lo rápido que pueden reaccionar los glaciares al clima cuando empiezan a desaparecer”.

Pero, aunque se dispone de gran cantidad de datos confiables a largo plazo para zonas como los Alpes europeos, Islandia, Svalbard y el oeste de América del Norte, la vigilancia de los glaciares no está distribuida de manera uniforme en todo el mundo. Dussaillant quisiera que se prestara más apoyo a las regiones cuyos gobiernos no pueden mantener una vigilancia continua de los glaciares. “No podemos decir realmente que este sea el panorama global, cuando en realidad algunas regiones siguen teniendo enormes huecos que debemos llenar y comprender mejor”.

Con alrededor de 200 000 glaciares en todo el mundo, aún queda mucho trabajo por hacer antes de que se obtenga una imagen verdaderamente global, afirmó Zekollari. “Pero es un gran paso adelante en comparación con lo que teníamos”.

—Kaja Šeruga, Escritora científica

This translation by Saúl A. Villafañe-Barajas (@villafanne) was made possible by a partnership with Planeteando and Geolatinas. Esta traducción fue posible gracias a una asociación con Planeteando y Geolatinas.

Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Plastic Debris Helps Oil Residues Reach Farther Across the Ocean

Tue, 01/20/2026 - 13:56

In the summer of 2020, Friends of Palm Beach, a nonprofit that cleans the shores of Palm Beach, Fla., noticed something unusual among the typical debris—many bottles and rubber bales were washing up covered in a black residue. Diane Buhler, the group’s founder, cataloged the time and location of the arrival of each piece of debris and kept an expertly photographed record.

No oil spills had been reported locally, and the high amount of residue-coated debris created a mystery: Where was all this black sludge coming from?

Christopher Reddy, a chemical oceanographer at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, had been working with an international team of scientists on a separate mystery: the origins of a 2019 oil spill in Brazil, the largest in the country’s history. When he saw the debris posted on the Friends of Palm Beach Instagram page, he reached out. “I was like, ‘Please, please send [the debris] to us,’” he said. The details Buhler was providing about the debris, he said, were “remarkably informative.”

View this post on Instagram

Reddy and the team had a hunch: They thought the 2020 Florida debris and the 2019 Brazil spill were linked. Because of weathering, oil residues rarely travel more than 300 kilometers (186 miles)—but perhaps they’d used plastic pollution to hitch a ride to the Sunshine State.

“This project wouldn’t have happened unless there was this knowledge of the way the currents move.”

A thorough analysis, published in Environmental Science and Technology, confirmed the residue likely originated from the Brazil spill. The findings reinforce scientists’ hypothesis that oil can travel far greater distances when attached to plastic debris in the ocean.

Matching Mysterious Oil Samples

Multiple lines of evidence informed the team’s conclusion that the Brazil spill and Palm Beach debris were related. First, previous experiments that tracked drifting bottles in the western tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea in the 1960s and 1970s showed it was possible for plastic debris to drift thousands of kilometers in the time that elapsed between the spill and the appearance of the debris. Second, computer simulations of the movement of oiled debris in the ocean also showed that it was possible for such debris to have reached Florida’s shores from the coast of Brazil. 

“This project wouldn’t have happened unless there was this knowledge of the way the currents move,” said Reddy, a coauthor on the new study. 

In the summer of 2020, oiled debris was found on Florida beaches. The oil likely traveled 8,500 kilometers (about 5,300 miles) from a 2019 oil spill off the coast of Brazil. Credit: James et al., 2026, https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5c14571, CC-BY 4.0

The researchers also scraped oil residue from 10 samples of the Palm Beach debris, then performed a series of chromatography tests and molecular analyses to compare it to oil samples from the Brazilian spill. Researchers found the samples to be forensically identical to oil from the spill; compounds that the team expected to be present were, while ones that should have been lost as oil degraded were not.

“It was such crystal-clear evidence that I got nervous.”

The team was astounded at the similarities, particularly the chromatography results. “It was such crystal-clear evidence that I got nervous,” Reddy said. “Oh my gosh, this really did happen,” he remembered thinking. 

The data are “pretty striking,” agreed Bryan James, a chemical engineer at Northeastern University and coauthor on the new study. 

The research team reasoned that the oiled debris traveled about 8,500 kilometers (about 5,300 miles) from the coast of Brazil to Palm Beach over about 240 days. That much oil has never been documented traveling so far, said Michel Boufadel, an environmental engineer at the New Jersey Institute of Technology who was not involved in the study. 

Researchers think the oiled debris may also have reached Caribbean islands but wasn’t cataloged. Credit: Diane Buhler, Friends of Palm Beach

The authors think it’s likely that similar debris washed up on Caribbean shores as well as Florida’s but simply wasn’t collected or cataloged. “Southeast Florida was where there was a person thinking and looking, who had this database in her head” and reported it, too, Reddy said. 

While the “science is solid,” Boufadel said, additional evidence from elsewhere in the Caribbean would add confidence to the results. 

A Plastic Problem

Typically, oil spilled in the ocean is removed by natural processes before it reaches very far, James said. But plastic debris can travel much farther, sometimes washing ashore after traveling thousands of miles over decades.

James said this raises a colocation problem. Many sources of oil and sources of plastic overlap, creating a “greater possibility for these two to find each other…and continue to move oil farther from where it originated,” he said. 

The results are further proof of a known risk of plastic pollution: It can be a vector for other toxic substances, Boufadel said. 

The research team is investigating why plastic debris can carry oil residues so far. Boufadel said it’s likely the plastic helped to maintain the physical integrity of the oil, preventing some of the fragmentation and degradation that would otherwise have occurred.

Colleagues in Brazil, Reddy added, are continuing to investigate the origin of the still-mysterious 2019 spill there, as well. It may be oil that leaked from the SS Rio Grande, a German supply boat sunk by the U.S. Navy in 1944, but more research is needed to confirm that hypothesis, Reddy said.

—Grace van Deelen (@gvd.bsky.social), Staff Writer

This news article is included in our ENGAGE resource for educators seeking science news for their classroom lessons. Browse all ENGAGE articles, and share with your fellow educators how you integrated the article into an activity in the comments section below.

Citation: van Deelen, G. (2026), Plastic debris helps oil residues reach farther across the ocean, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260033. Published on 20 January 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

How Satellite Data Helped Avoid Hunger from Drought

Tue, 01/20/2026 - 13:26
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: AGU Advances

Technologies for Earth observation by satellites have been used to give advance warning of potentially imminent crop failure due to drought conditions. These risks are increasing with climate change and are especially concerning for middle- and low-income countries that are vulnerable to food insecurity.

Nakalembe [2026] reports on the effectiveness of Uganda’s Disaster Risk Financing Program, which pioneered satellite-triggered financing for drought disaster relief operating at scale. The $14 million program yielded $40.7 million in total benefits, including $11.1 million in immediate emergency aid cost savings. In addition to offering lessons learned, this commentary concludes that institutional and financial barriers, rather than technical limitations, now constrain the scaling of this satellite-driven climate resilience mechanism. Similar programs may reduce vulnerabilities worldwide, as climate disasters become increasingly frequent and severe.

Anomalies in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (ANDVI) from satellites and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3) during the peak growing season (June – September) of each year from 2000 to 2015 across the Karamoja Region of Uganda. The solid-colored lines show ANDVI (left axis) for six Ugandan districts, with negative values indicating reduced crop health. A horizontal dashed line at -0.02 ANDVI represents the trigger threshold for activating financial assistance by Ugandan government agencies. The dashed black line illustrates precipitation anomalies from SPI-3 (right axis), with classification of drought severity indicated by horizontal lines D1-D4 at negative SPI-3 values. Note that the in years when the SPI-3 index dropped below the drought severity lines (D1-D4), many of the ANDVI values for the six districts (colored lines) also become negative, often below the threshold of -0.02, indicating a crop response to drought that warns of potential crop failure and proactively triggers governmental disaster relief. Credit: Nakalembe [2026], Figure 1

Citation: Nakalembe, C. (2026). Lessons From Uganda’s Earth Observation-Based Disaster Risk Financing Program. AGU Advances, 7, e2025AV002224. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV002224

—Eric Davidson, Editor, AGU Advances

Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

The mental health impact of landslide disasters

Tue, 01/20/2026 - 07:38

A new study (Akhila et al. 2025) in the the journal Development in Practice examines the mental health impacts of the 30 July 2024 Wayanad landslides in India.

In this blog, I generally provide a commentary on recent landslide events and a review of subsequent studies of landslides. I regularly discuss the impacts on the local population at the time of the disaster, but in 18 years I have almost never written about the long term effects on those people. This is primarily because of a lack of literature that covers this issue for landslides. This is particularly true of mental health impacts.

However, it is logical to assume that the mental health impacts must be profound. Landslides are deeply traumatic events even setting aside the loss of friends and family. They are violent and unpredictable in their behaviour, and people are often buried alive, which is a fundamental human fear.

In that context, a faascinating study (Akhila et al. 2025) has been published in the journal Development in Practice that examines the mental health impacts of the 30 July 2024 Wayanad landslides in India, which are believed to have killed 454 people and injured 397 more. Back at the time, I posted this image of the aftermath of these channelised debris flows:-

Planet Labs image of the 30 July 2024 landslide at Wayanad in Kerala, India. Image copyright Planet Labs, used with permission, captured on 12 August 2024.

The first author was present in some of the 53 camps established in the immediate aftermath of the landslides to house and care for the 6,759 people displaced by the landslides. The paper provides a reflection on their experiences.

The short term impacts of the landslide on survivors decumented by Akhila et al. (2025) are perhaps unsurprising but valuable. They describe emotional breakdown:-

“The very grounds they once called home had turned into graveyards of their people. Many survivors now carry the weight of survivor’s guilt, asking why they survived when others didn’t. This leads to feelings of self-blame, helplessness, and in some cases, post-traumatic stress symptoms.”

Survivors lost cherished places and livelihoods, and their “sense of security, identity, and hope was disrupted”. This triggered “heightened anxiety, sleep disturbances, a lingering sense of fear and uncertainty about the future.” The picture that emerges is one of profound collective trauma.

The longer term mental health impacts are also deeply troubling. Akhila et al. (2025) describe how the communities were left in a constant state of fear of a repeat of the event. This was heightened by anxiety about rehabilitation, livelihoods and relocation. The population lost their homes and the fabric of their communities; some inevitably turned to alcohol or substance abuse, leading to high risk behaviours. Financial crises further exacerbated the challenges for many.

Akhila et al. (2025) also highlight the particular mental health impacts for children, older people, those with disabilities and those who were from outside of the area. The ways that landslide disasters have particular impacts on different groups is a really interesting topic.

But the authors also look at the impact on first responders, noting that many of these individuals were themselves survivors, and some lost loved ones. They note that the responders were “forced to work under extreme stress during the disaster relief efforts. Many were deployed without prior debriefing and continue to carry the emotional distress from that period into their daily lives.”

Finally, Akhila et al. (2025) briefly consider the provision of long term mental health support for survivors. They note that there were many gaps in provision of such services, leading to many people failing to receive the support that they needed, but also to some duplication of effort due to poor coordination. Providing such services affectively would stretch any community, but the authors recommend better planning and integration of services.

This is an incredibly valuable piece of work that explores an issue so rarely considered for landslides. The picture described in the paper must be replicated again and again around the world. It would be great to see both more studies of this type and, of course, better provision of mental health support in the aftermath of landslide disasters.

Reference and acknowledgement

Akhlia, V et al. 2025. Mental health aftershocks following the high-intensity landslide in Southern India. Development in Practice, https://doi.org/10.1080/09614524.2025.2551850.

Thanks as ever to the kind people at Planet Labs for providing access to their amazing imagery.

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Landslides triggered by Typhoon Doksuri in northern China in July 2023

Mon, 01/19/2026 - 08:31

New research indicates that over 100,000 landslides were triggered by a single rainstorm.

Back in July 2023, the remnants of Typhoon Doksuri swept across northern China, bringing exceptional rainfall. I briefly covered this at the time, but there was a lack of clear information about the impacts.

A technical note has been published in the journal Landslides in the last few days (Xie et al. 2026) [this link should allow you to access the paper behind the paywall), which provides greater clarity on what occurred. And the picture is remarkable.

The authors have undertaken detailed mapping of the landslides triggered by Typhoon Doksuri, identifying 104,555 landslides. The authors describe this as “the largest rainfall-induced landslide event in North China to date”.

To give an idea if the scale of this event, the image below shows just a small part of the affected area, centred on [39.9530, 116.04518]. This is a Planet Labs image captured on 25 July 2023, just before the rainfall:-

Satellite image of a part of northern China before Typhoon Doksuri. Image copyright Planet Labs, captured on 25 July 2023, used with permission.

And here is the same area after Typhoon Doksuri:-

Satellite image of a part of northern China after Typhoon Doksuri. Image copyright Planet Labs, captured on 16 August 2023, used with permission.

And here is a slider to allow the images to be compared:-

Images copyright Planet Labs, used with permission.

The situation will be familiar to regular readers of this blog – intense rainfall has triggered multiple shallow landslides in steep terrain, which have then coalesced to form channelised debris flows with high mobility and a long runout. Note the way that these debris flows have entered the populated area – in some cases the damage looks very serious:-

Satellite image of a part of northern China after Typhoon Doksuri showing debris flows in populated areas. Image copyright Planet Labs, captured on 16 August 2023, used with permission.

These landslides were triggered by extreme rainfall – Xie et al. (2026) suggest that some areas received over 400 mm in a seven day period, and over 200 mm in 24 hours.

It was not the aim of this paper to consider the cost of these landslides, but this must have been substantial. A paper in Mandarin (Yang et al. 2023) on the meteorology of this event notes that:

“According to incomplete statistics (as of August 10, 2023), the continuous heavy rainfall affected 3.8886 million people in 110 counties (cities, districts) of Hebei Province, causing direct economic losses of 95.811 billion yuan, 29 deaths, and 16 missing persons. It is necessary to review and summarize the precipitation characteristics and weather causes of this event to provide a reference for forecasting extreme torrential rainstorms in North China.”

This translates to US$13.7 billion.

References
Xie, C., Huang, Y., Xu, C. et al. 2026. Over 100,000 landslides triggered by typhoon-induced rainfall in North China in July 2023Landslides. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-026-02698-w

Yang, X. et al. 2023. Evolution characteristics and formation of the July 2023 severe torrential rain on the eastern foothills of Taihang mountains in Hebei Province.
Meteorological Monthly, 49, 1451-1467. (in Chinese). https://doi.org/10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2023.102301

Thanks as ever to the kind people at Planet Labs for providing access to their amazing imagery.

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

ALMA’s New View of the Solar System

Fri, 01/16/2026 - 14:06
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: AGU Advances

Asteroids, moons, and comets near Earth act like fossils from the time when our solar system first formed. In a new article, de Kleer et al. [2025] explain how a powerful telescope called the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) has changed the way scientists study these small worlds. ALMA can detect very weak thermal emission (heat) signals, allowing researchers to map the surface features of asteroids and accurately measure the masses of distant objects beyond Neptune, known as Kuiper Belt Objects.

ALMA is also used to study gases released by volcanic eruptions on Jupiter’s moon Io and probe the thick atmosphere of Saturn’s moon Titan. The review emphasizes the study of isotopes, which are slightly different forms of the same chemical element. These isotopes act like chemical fingerprints, helping scientists track how elements such as nitrogen and sulfur have changed over time. By comparing these local measurements with observations of young planetary systems around other stars, scientists can better understand how the ingredients for life survived the violent process of planet formation.

Citation: de Kleer, K., Brown, M. E., Cordiner, M., & Teague, R. (2025). Satellites and small bodies with ALMA: Insights into solar system formation and evolution. AGU Advances, 6, e2025AV001778. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV001778

—Xi Zhang, Editor, AGU Advances

Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Denitrification Looks Different in Rivers Versus Streams

Fri, 01/16/2026 - 14:03
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

Human activities add large quantities of nitrogen to the environment, much of which gets washed into streams and rivers. These waterways transport some of that nitrogen to the oceans, but they also remove a significant portion of it through a process called denitrification: Microbes facilitate a series of chemical reactions that turn nitrate into dinitrogen gas, which is then released into the atmosphere.

Existing research, largely in streams, shows a wide range of denitrification rates, but the factors affecting this process aren’t fully quantified, especially in rivers. Pruitt et al. compared denitrification rates in a stream and a river across three seasons to study how the process varies across waterway scales.

The researchers took hourly water samples from the Tippecanoe River and the Shatto Ditch in Indiana over 36-hour periods in spring, summer, and fall. They used open-channel metabolism and a membrane inlet mass spectrometry–based model to study how rates of denitrification fluctuated in both waterways as the seasons changed. They found the stream had higher denitrification rates per square meter than the river in all seasons. They attribute this in part to higher nitrate levels in the stream, as well as a proportionally greater contribution of microbial activity on the streambed. However, when the researchers scaled up, the denitrification rate in rivers per kilometer of channel length was equal to or even higher than that of streams.

The researchers also observed different seasonal denitrification patterns. In the stream, denitrification rates were highest in spring and lower in summer and fall, whereas in the river, denitrification rates were highest in the fall, followed by spring, and very low in summer. Fertilizer application and higher precipitation rates in spring likely drive the stream dynamics, they suggest, whereas higher rates of ecosystem respiration increasing denitrifier activity in the fall may explain the pattern seen in the river.

Additionally, nitrogen gas concentrations varied by hour, the authors report, which could help explain the large range of rates found by previous studies. They recommend that future work use both the open-channel method and an in situ chamber assay and compare the two sampling methods. The authors also suggest that separating incomplete from complete denitrification could be valuable to explore the release of nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas, to the atmosphere. (Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JG009044, 2025)

—Nathaniel Scharping (@nathanielscharp), Science Writer

Citation: Scharping, N. (2026), Denitrification looks different in rivers versus streams, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260029. Published on 16 January 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Marine Snow Grows Faster and Fluffier as It Sinks

Fri, 01/16/2026 - 14:03
Source: Global Biogeochemical Cycles

A critical part of Earth’s carbon cycle is the sinking of particulate organic material from the ocean’s surface to its depths. Much of that material is classified as “marine snow,” which is primarily made of snow-sized (>0.5 mm) detrital organic matter and phytoplankton.

Siegel et al. participated in a field campaign in the northeast Atlantic Ocean during the demise of the spring phytoplankton bloom during May 2021. They set out to observe how both physical processes, such as turbulence created by storms, and biological processes, such as consumption by animals and microbes, affected marine snow dynamics. The researchers used three research vessels, three instrumented gliders, a Lagrangian float, and 10 water-following surface drifters to measure the size distribution and characteristics of marine snow particles in the upper 500 meters of the water column.

The researchers found that near the ocean’s surface, turbulence induced by intense storms caused the breakdown of marine snow particles that later aggregated during calmer conditions. The succession of multiple storm events helped to foster the downward movement of marine snow through the water column. Below a depth of 200 meters, consumption by zooplankton and other organisms drove the removal of the snow particles and their breakdown into smaller ones. The combination of these processes affected how quickly particles sank through the water column and therefore the timescales over which the sinking organic carbon was sequestered from the atmosphere.

Over the course of the experiment, the researchers found that the marine snow particles became fluffier, larger, and more porous, and more marine snow appeared in the water column overall. Additionally, the average particle sinking velocity above 200 meters of depth increased from roughly 17 meters per day to almost 100 meters per day, likely attributable to the increase in the particle size of the marine snow aggregates.

The results highlight how both abiotic and biotic processes affect how marine snow moves through the water column. That understanding could have implications for how scientists quantify the effects of the ocean’s biological pump within the planet’s carbon cycle, the researchers say. (Global Biogeochemical Cycles, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GB008676, 2025)

—Madeline Reinsel, Science Writer

Citation: Reinsel, M. (2026), Marine snow grows faster and fluffier as it sinks, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260030. Published on 16 January 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Bridging the Gap: Transforming Reliable Climate Data into Climate Policy

Fri, 01/16/2026 - 13:42
Editors’ Vox is a blog from AGU’s Publications Department.

Advancing our understanding of climate change and its impacts requires a multidisciplinary effort to generate, evaluate, and integrate reliable climate records at appropriate spatiotemporal scales. Reliable and traceable climate observations are essential for evidence-based climate governance.

Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) serve as the foundation for monitoring the Earth system. For instance, ECVs such as the Earth Radiation Budget and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) provide critical information on energy exchanges within the Earth system, underpinning assessments of long-term variability and anthropogenic influences.

These variables are estimated from satellites, ground networks, and models, producing vast datasets whose usefulness depends not on size, but on quality, consistency, and careful integration. As measurement coverage is uneven, instruments differ in calibration, and techniques can yield conflicting results. Thus, transforming raw data into reliable information requires rigorous quality control and collaboration across scientific and technical disciplines.

International frameworks such as the WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS) set standards for measurement, documentation, uncertainty reporting, and open data sharing. These systems promote traceability and reliability—ensuring the ability to track how each data point was produced and processed—so that scientists can reproduce analyses and policymakers can trust the results. In addition, emerging approaches, including physics-informed Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL), enable enhanced detection of patterns, anomaly identification, and quality control in large, heterogeneous datasets. Thereby they are strengthening the role of ECVs in monitoring system integrity.

Moreover, geodetic observations of sea-level rise, cryospheric changes, and solid Earth deformation illustrate the key role of multidisciplinary ECV analysis. By providing a holistic understanding of environmental change, these data streams are foundational for developing next-generation predictive tools, including Earth’s Digital Twin, to monitor global and local dynamics.

In this context, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) plays a key role by fostering global collaboration to develop interdisciplinary ECVs that are traceable and reliable. GCOS supports efforts to advance climate science by ensuring high-quality data, which is vital for informed climate action and adaptive policy development. Through innovation and interdisciplinary approaches, this framework enables more effective responses to the challenges posed by climate change.

This special collection serves as a venue for contributions that shed light on the role of continuous monitoring of ECVs, coupled with rigorous quality assurance, as a foundation for policy decisions, ultimately bridging the gap between technical observation and actionable climate governance. We especially welcome novel research that advances the methodologies required to demonstrate how robust, traceable data can empower society to build resilience against a changing climate. Contributions will include (but not be limited to) research into: best practices in observation, collection, and processing and curation of data. It can also include physics-informed machine and deep learning methods to identify relationships and feedback loops between atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and lithosphere, as well as evidence-based policies and remediation measures.

This is a joint special collection between Earth and Space Science, JGR: Machine and Computation, and Earth’s Future. Manuscripts can be submitted to any of these journals depending on their fit with each journal aims and scope. Submissions are now open and welcome until 7 March 2027.

—Jean-Philippe Montillet (Jean-Philippe.Montillet@pmodwrc.ch, 0000-0001-7439-7862), Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos World Radiation Center, Switzerland; Graziella Caprarelli (Graziella.Caprarelli@usq.edu.au, 0000-0001-9578-3228), University of Southern Queensland, Australia;  Gaël Kermarrec (0000-0001-5986-5269), Leibniz Universitat Hannover, Germany; CK Shum (0000-0001-9378-4067), Ohio State University, United States; Ehsan Forootan (0000-0003-3055-041X), Aalborg University, Denmark; Jan Sedlacek (0000-0002-6742-9130), Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos World Radiation Center, Switzerland; Elizabeth Weatherhead (0000-0002-9252-4228), University of Colorado at Boulder, United States; Orhan Akyilmaz (0000-0002-8499-2654), Istanbul Technical University, Turkey; Wolfgang Finsterle (0000-0002-6672-7523), Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos World Radiation Center, Switzerland; Yu Zhang, Ohio University, United States; Enrico Camporeale (0000-0002-7862-6383), University of Colorado Boulder, United States; and Kelly K. Caylor (0000-0002-6466-6448), University of California, Santa Barbara, United States

Citation: Montillet, J-P., G. Caprarelli, G. Kermarrec, CK. Shum, E. Forootan, J. Sedlacek, E. Weatherhead, O. Akyilmaz, W. Finsterle, Y. Zhang, E. Camporeale, and K. K. Caylor (2026), Bridging the gap: transforming reliable climate data into climate policy, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO265001. Published on 16 January 2026. This article does not represent the opinion of AGU, Eos, or any of its affiliates. It is solely the opinion of the author(s). Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

The evolving landslide threat at Farwell Canyon on the Chilcotin River in British Columbia

Fri, 01/16/2026 - 08:24

There are concerns about the potential impact of an incipient landslide at Farwell Canyon on the Chilcotin River in British Columbia, Canada.

On 30 July 2024, a large landslide occurred on the Chilcotin River in British Columbia, Canada, blocking the flow. The scale of the landslide was massive – on the BC website about the event, it is estimated that the landslide was about 1,000 metres in length, 600 metres in width, and roughly 30 metres deep. There is a good Youtube video with footage of the landslide:-

And this image, from the BC Government, captures the landslide itself:-

The 30 July 2024 landslide on the Chilcotin River in Canada. Image from the BC Government.

The landslide breached and the lake drained on 5 August 2024.

In the aftermath of that landslide, geotechnical monitoring was established for the riverbanks, which has identified another site on the Chilcotin River that appears to be vulnerable to a landslide. A tension crack has developed at a site known as Snhaxalaus, located just downstream of the the Farwell Canyon Bridge (the bridge is at [51.82790, -122.56296].

The Tŝilhqot’in National Government has published this image of the site:-

The site of the incipient landslide near to Farwell Canyon Bridge on the Chilcotin River in Canada. Image from the Tŝilhqot’in National Government.

The tension crack, and the large displacements, are clearly evident.

The major concern at this site is the potential impact on Chilko salmon. Following 2024 landslide, an Emergency Salmon Task Force was established, led by the Tŝilhqot’in National Government but also working with the Williams Lake First Nation. To manage the threat posed by the incipient landslide on the Farwell Canyon, the Task Force is planning to undertake “a proactive slope stabilization plan that includes manual scaling and targeted trim blasting”, which seems like a reasonable approach.

However, national and/or provincial funding is not in place to undertake this work ahead of the salmon migration later this year, so the Tŝilhqot’in National Government is planning to fund the work itself. The costs are estimated to be in the range of CAN$2.5M – $3M. Tŝilhqot’in National Government is concerned that a failure at this site ahead of the salmon migration could cause devastating damage to the salmon populations on the Fraser River.

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Detecting Remagnetization with Quantum Diamond Microscopy

Thu, 01/15/2026 - 14:00
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth

Magnetic mineral populations that recorded the Earth’s magnetic field during distinct stages of rock formation are often juxtaposed on micrometer-to-millimeter scales. This poses significant challenges for extracting reliable paleomagnetic information because standard methods —which measure the bulk magnetic moment of whole samples— cannot distinguish between magnetic minerals with overlapping demagnetization spectra.

The recently developed Quantum Diamond Microscope (QDM) yield micrometer-scale magnetization images of rock samples, which allow to extract individual magnetization contributions from different structures. Qi et al. [2025] demonstrate the advantage of this new approach with an example from the Troodos ophiolite, Cyprus. QDM measurements of a weakly and a strongly magnetized sample reveal magnetized structures from three distinct serpentinization episodes, from oldest to youngest: ridge-axis serpentinization (strongly magnetized sample, 90-92 Ma), recrystallization zones from mantle wedge serpentinization during subduction (weakly magnetized sample, 5.3-2.6 Ma), and meteoric-water serpentinization following surface exposure (weakly magnetized sample, <2.6 Ma). These episodes are also documented by oxygen isotope measurements indicating distinct alteration temperatures. The QDM technique can be applied to a variety of terrestrial rocks and meteorites with complex magnetization patterns which cannot be disentangled with traditional bulk measurements.

Quantum diamond microscope image of the magnetic field produced by the natural magnetization of minerals inside a rock sample from the Artemis serpentinite diapir, in its untreated from (a) and after demagnetizing the less stable magnetization components with an alternating field (b). Corresponding details from a recrystallization zone formed during subduction (5.3 to 2.6 million years ago) and from a microfracture formed during the latest stage of meteoric water serpentinization, after the rock was emplaced (<2.6 million years ago) are shown in (d, f) and (c, e), respectively. The zoomed details in (h, j) and (g, i) reveal the association between magnetite grains (light-gray structures) and magnetic signals (blue-red hues) in different microstructures. (k-n) Discrete field patterns produced by a single magnetic source, consisting of pairs of positive (red) and negative (blue) anomalies have been fitted with a magnetic dipole model, yielding the magnetization vector orientations shown in the equal area plots with geographical coordinates. Stars show the mean directions for each zone, together with their 95% confidence ellipses. Credit: Qi et al. [2025], Figure 5

Citation: Qi, L., Muxworthy, A. R., Baker, E. B., Cao, X., Allerton, S., Bryson, J. F. J., & Zhang, Y. (2025). Quantifying serpentinization-driven remagnetization from ridge axis to subduction zone using quantum diamond microscopy. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 130, e2025JB031606. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JB031606

—Ramon Egli, Associate Editor, JGR: Solid Earth

Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

The State of the Science 1 Year On: Climate Change and Energy

Thu, 01/15/2026 - 13:59
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This article is Part 2 of “The State of the Science 1 Year On,” a report from Eos and AGU.

The State of the Science 1 Year On

In the first year of his second term, President Donald Trump worked across agencies to roll back practical and political momentum to address the climate crisis.

Experts say the array of administration policies supporting the fossil fuel industry could halve U.S. progress on reducing carbon emissions, and actions such as withdrawing the United States from the Paris Agreement are projected to erase at least 0.1°C (0.18°F) of international efforts to limit warming by 2100.

Rolling Back Climate Policy

Trump’s interagency effort to roll back critical climate policies began immediately. An executive order (EO) signed on the first day of Trump’s second term titled “Unleashing American Energy” ordered additional oil and gas exploration, accelerated permitting for such drilling, eliminated credits and regulations favoring electric vehicles, and revoked 12 climate- and energy-related EOs issued by the administration of President Joe Biden.

In March, the EPA indicated it would move to reconsider the 2009 Endangerment Finding, which states that greenhouse gases “threaten the public health and welfare of current and future generations.” The Endangerment Finding underpins the federal government’s authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles, power plants, oil and gas facilities, and factories.

On 29 July, the EPA formally proposed to rescind the finding, and the Department of Energy (DOE) published a report finding that carbon dioxide–induced warming “appears to be less damaging economically than commonly believed,” that U.S. policy actions have “undetectably small direct impacts on the global climate,” and that claims of increased frequency or intensity of storms are “not supported” by historical data.

In September, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine conducted their own review, stating that “EPA’s 2009 finding that the human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases threaten human health and welfare was accurate” and is “beyond scientific dispute.” In a letter to the National Academies, House Oversight Chair James Comer (R-KY) dismissed the review as a “blatant partisan act to undermine the Trump Administration.”

In August, the American Meteorological Society published a report identifying “five foundational flaws” in the DOE report that each place the report “at odds with scientific principles and practices.”

In addition to reconsidering the Endangerment Finding, the Trump administration immediately began to dismantle the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, a $27 billion lending program meant to spur private investment in clean energy. In March, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin terminated $20 billion of this funding. Numerous lawsuits followed, but in July, Trump rescinded all funding for the program.

In February, Congress repealed a Biden era rule implementing a federal tax on methane pollution, which would have been the United States’ first tax on greenhouse gases. In June, the administration also proposed to rescind all greenhouse gas emissions standards for coal-, oil-, and gas-fired power plants.

The One Big Beautiful Bill, the omnibus spending bill that became law on 4 July, removes or rapidly phases out most clean energy, electric vehicle, and clean manufacturing tax credits introduced by Biden’s key climate bill, the Inflation Reduction Act. While reducing support for clean energy projects, the law also grants $40 billion in new subsidies and tax credits to the fossil fuel industry through 2035, according to a report from Oil Change International, an anti–fossil fuel advocacy group.

In total, the One Big Beautiful Bill is expected to cut the development of new clean-power-generating capacity by up to 59% through 2035, according to a report by the Rhodium Group. An analysis by Carbon Brief and Princeton University found the passage of the law will set the United States up to drop emissions to 3% below current levels by 2030 rather than the 40% mandated by the Paris Agreement.

In November, the EPA announced it would delay methane emissions reduction requirements set by the Biden administration, giving oil and gas companies until January 2027 to comply. In December, the White House and Department of Transportation announced a proposal to revoke vehicle fuel efficiency standards that were tightened in 2024. The administration is expected to finalize this proposal in 2026.

Boosting Fossil Fuels, Obstructing Renewables

Trump’s declaration of a “national energy emergency” gave federal agency heads authority to grant emergency approvals to expedite the completion of energy projects.

“We’re going to drill, baby, drill,” Trump said after being sworn in. That day, Trump issued an executive order (EO) to resume processing permit applications for new liquefied natural gas projects, which had been halted under Biden.

“It is the policy of the United States that coal is essential to our national and economic security.”

In an April EO seeking to revive the “beautiful clean coal industry,” the Trump administration directed agencies to identify possible new coal resources on federal lands. The order also laid out plans to identify and revise existing regulations and policies that might lead the country away from coal power or coal production. “It is the policy of the United States that coal is essential to our national and economic security,” the EO states.

Also in April, the Department of the Interior said it intended to fast-track approvals for coal, gas, oil, and mineral projects. The administration opened up millions of acres of federal land to oil and gas companies and additional millions of acres to potential coal mining projects. In September, the DOE announced it would invest $625 million to retrofit and modernize aging coal power plants, followed by an additional $100 million in federal funding for similar projects. In May, the administration ordered a coal power plant in Michigan to abandon its plans to shut down, citing a “shortage of electric energy” in the Midwest. In December, it also ordered two coal plants in Indiana, two in Colorado, and one in Washington to remain open.

Among the federal land opened to oil drilling is the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, an iconic wilderness area in northern Alaska. In October, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum announced the federal government would open 1.56 million acres (631,000 hectares) of the refuge to oil and gas leasing, reversing a Biden moratorium on drilling activity there.

In November, the administration announced it planned to open almost 1.3 billion additional acres (526 million hectares) of U.S. coastal waters to new oil and gas drilling. The One Big Beautiful Bill mandated at least 36 oil and gas lease sales in federal waters.

“An offshore lease issued next year could keep pumping carbon into the atmosphere for the next 40 years,” Rebecca Loomis, an attorney at the Natural Resources Defense Council, told The New York Times.

Renewable energy projects have mostly received the opposite treatment, as federal agencies made a concerted effort to halt existing solar and wind energy projects and slow the permitting and approval process for new ones. Trump took particular aim at wind energy: An EO on the first day of his term withdrew all new offshore wind energy lease opportunities and suggested the possibility of terminating or amending existing leases. A coalition of state attorneys sued the administration, saying Trump does not have the authority to unilaterally make such mandates. In December, a federal judge wrote that the EO violated federal law.

“This arbitrary and unnecessary directive threatens the loss of thousands of good-paying jobs and billions in investments, and it is delaying our transition away from the fossil fuels that harm our health and our planet,” New York Attorney General Letitia James said of the EO.

Solar projects have suffered, too. The Trump administration slowed development on a solar project in Nevada that, if built, would be one of the world’s largest. In October, the EPA canceled $7 billion in grants for a popular clean energy program, Solar for All, meant to help low- and moderate-income households install solar.

Oil and gas permitting, but not renewable energy permitting, continued during the 44-day government shutdown this fall, as the Trump administration approved more than 470 permits to drill on public land. After the January 2026 military action in Venezuela, President Trump announced the country “will be turning over” 30-50 million barrels of oil and that the federal government would maintain control over Venezuela’s oil industry.

Hindering Climate Science

As the Trump administration hindered clean energy projects and boosted fossil fuels, it also targeted climate science. In February, Trump prohibited federal scientists from traveling to take part in a planning meeting of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Federal scientists were reportedly told to stop work on all IPCC-related activities, though some nonfederal U.S. scientists are still involved.

In April, the administration dismissed all scientists working on the United States’ own National Climate Assessment (NCA). In July, a spokeswoman for NASA told The New York Times that NASA would no longer host previous NCAs online. AGU and the American Meteorological Society have responded by creating a special collection on climate change to help catalyze and advance synthesis science to inform our understanding of risks and solutions for U.S. climate research and assessments. In December, the Trump administration asked a group of scientists known for their climate skepticism—the same group that authored the DOE report undermining the 2009 Endangerment Finding—to write the next installment of the NCA.

Additionally, many programs and offices collecting and analyzing climate data were shuttered this year because budgets were cut and staff were fired, creating a widening climate data void. In April, for example, the EPA failed for the first time to meet the obligations of a 1992 treaty setting greenhouse gas reporting requirements for wealthy countries. The Environmental Defense Fund released the data after filing a Freedom of Information Act request. The same month, political appointees told EPA staff that they planned to virtually eliminate the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, which requires the country’s largest industrial sites to report their emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide.

“The public has a right to know how much climate pollution is being emitted.”

“The public has a right to know how much climate pollution is being emitted,” Vickie Patton, an attorney at the Environmental Defense Fund, told The New York Times. “The attack on the data, the attack on the science, is irresponsible.”

Pieces of signature energy reports from the Energy Information Administration, a data-tracking arm of the Department of Energy, were removed, while the publication of its International Energy Outlook for 2025 was scrapped.

NOAA, once identified as “one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry,” has come under intense scrutiny. Under the Trump administration, the agency ended support for key data products at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, retired its Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters data product (though the nonprofit Climate Central is bringing it back to life), suspended work on a massive dataset meant to predict extreme rainfall, and consolidated climate data hosted on Climate.gov on another NOAA domain. The administration also canceled its lease for NOAA’s Global Monitoring Laboratory in Hilo, Hawaii, an important site for scientists tracking carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Trump proposed cutting virtually all funding for climate research at NOAA, though Congress is considering spending bills that include much more modest cuts. Congress is also considering a bill that would ensure the uninterrupted storage of NOAA datasets indefinitely.

NASA’s climate programs suffered, too: This spring, the Trump administration began the process of shrinking the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, which maintains critical climate data records. And over the summer, the administration directed NASA employees to draw up plans to end satellite missions designed to monitor carbon dioxide emissions. Acting Administrator Sean Duffy made clear the agency will deprioritize all climate science.

The Department of the Interior cut funding to a third of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Climate Adaptation Science Centers, which funds projects aimed to help people, wildlife, land, and water adapt to local effects of climate change. This includes mapping risks of wildfire and flooding, maintaining infrastructure such as storm drains, and assessing fish and wildlife populations for both hunting and conservation.

The Trump administration also axed funding for the U.S. Global Change Research Program, a decades-old congressionally mandated interagency climate research program. And in November, a new organizational plan for the Energy Department no longer showed various offices that had overseen clean energy technology development.

More than 100 National Science Foundation (NSF) grants for climate-related science have been canceled as well. In December, the Trump administration announced that it would dismantle the NSF-funded National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), one of the world’s leading climate and Earth science laboratories.

The administration also systematically removed mentions of climate change and related language from agency websites and directed the Department of Energy not to use certain language, including the words “green” and “decarbonization.” The EPA also erased references linking human activities to climate change from sections of its website.

And while geoengineering has not been a priority of the Trump administration, Rep. Marjorie Tayler Greene (R-GA) introduced the Clear Skies Act in July, which would impose $100,000 fines and potential jail time for anyone conducting “weather modification” activities.

Stalling Global Progress

The Trump administration’s approach to climate and energy policy has reverberated globally. The administration’s decision to pull out of the Paris Agreement (to take effect in January 2026) will set global projected emissions back 0.1°C (0.18°F) by 2100, according to a United Nations report.

The same EO that withdraws the United States from the Paris Agreement also directs the administration to revoke contributions to international climate finance funds. This directive means the global climate finance goal agreed upon at COP29 (the 29th Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change) will be much more difficult to meet. In March, the administration also pulled the United States out of the Board of the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage, a U.N. climate damage fund created at COP28 dedicated to helping finance developing countries’ climate adaptation efforts. The same month, the United States withdrew from the Just Energy Transition Partnership, an international collaboration formed at COP26 meant to help developing countries implement clean energy.

The Trump administration did not attend COP30 in Belém, Brazil, a move that other leaders admonished. “Mr. Trump is against humankind,” said Colombian President Gustavo Petro. It was the first time in COP history that the United States did not send a delegation.

In January 2026, the White House issued an EO ordering the withdrawal of the United States from the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, a 1992 treaty that set the legal framework for international negotiations on climate change. According to the terms of the treaty, the formal withdrawal will occur one year after the government submits paperwork to the U.N., after which the United States will be the only country not engaged in the global agreement. The EO also ordered the withdrawal of the United States from the IPCC.

At an International Energy Agency meeting held in London in April, Trump administration staff members opposed policies to regulate fossil fuels. In September, Secretary of Energy Chris Wright traveled to Italy to attend the world’s largest natural gas conference. While in Europe, Wright urged European governments to ditch methane regulations, called net-zero goals “a colossal train wreck,” and downplayed the risks of climate change. “It’s turned out that not only does climate change not look to be an urgent threat…but doing something about it has proven remarkably difficult,” Wright told reporters in Brussels.

The Trump administration also attempted to use economic levers to encourage other nations to walk back their climate goals. In July, for instance, the administration agreed to reduce some tariffs on the European Union (EU) if the EU purchased $750 billion in American oil and gas. In December, the Trump administration asked the EU to exempt US oil and gas companies that sell oil and gas to Europe from European methane regulations.

Next Steps

Despite criticism of the DOE report and widespread opposition to the reconsideration of the rule—even Tesla wants to preserve it—the EPA is expected to move forward with revoking the Endangerment Finding in early 2026. The decision is expected to face serious legal challenges, and the Trump administration faces an ongoing lawsuit from the Environmental Defense Fund and the Union of Concerned Scientists over the controversial DOE report. Final repeals of federal vehicle fuel economy standards and power plant emissions limits are also expected in early 2026.

The future of climate programs like the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, Solar for All, electric vehicle infrastructure funds, and other climate-related grants likely lies in the courts, not the ballot box. Environmental groups and other stakeholders have filed multiple lawsuits challenging these actions, and they are still proceeding through the legal system. A coalition of states has even sued Trump and his administration over the president’s initial declaration of a “national energy emergency.”

Curated Links

Key resources for this report and people interested in this topic:

American Geophysical Union (2025), Science societies take action after NCA authors’ dismissal this week, 2 May, news.agu.org/press-release/agu-and-ams-join-forces-on-special-collection-to-maintain-momentum-of-research-supporting-the-u-s-national-climate-assessment/.

American Meteorological Society (2025), The practice and assessment of science: Five foundational flaws in the Department of Energy’s 2025 climate report, 27 Aug., www.ametsoc.org/ams/about-ams/ams-statements/statements-of-the-ams-in-force/the-practice-and-assessment-of-science-five-foundational-flaws-in-the-department-of-energys-2025-climate-report/.

Carbon Brief (2025), Chart: Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’ blows US emissions goal by 7bn tonnes, 4 July, www.carbonbrief.org/chart-trumps-big-beautiful-bill-blows-us-emissions-goal-by-7bn-tonnes/.

Cartier, K. M. S. (2025), NASA planning for unauthorized shutdown of carbon monitoring satellites, Eos, 5 Aug., eos.org/research-and-developments/nasa-planning-for-unauthorized-shutdown-of-carbon-monitoring-satellites.

Colman, Z. (2025), Energy Dept. adds ‘climate change’ and ‘emissions’ to banned words list, Politico, 28 Sept., www.politico.com/news/2025/09/28/energy-department-climate-change-emissions-banned-words-00583649.

Chemnick, J. (2025), Trump gutted climate rules in 2025. He could make it permanent in 2026. E&E News, 17 Dec., www.eenews.net/articles/trump-gutted-climate-rules-in-2025-he-could-make-it-permanent-in-2026/.

Dieckman, E. (2025), Executive order seeks to revive “America’s Beautiful, Clean Coal Industry,” Eos, 9 Apr., eos.org/research-and-developments/executive-order-seeks-to-revive-americas-beautiful-clean-coal-industry.

Dzomback, R. (2025), NASA website will not provide previous National Climate Reports, New York Times, 14 July, www.nytimes.com/2025/07/14/climate/nasa-website-climate-report.html.

Friedman, L. (2025), Interior Department to fast-track oil, gas and mining projects, New York Times, 23 Apr., www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/climate/interior-department-gas-and-mining-projects.html.

Janis, B., and C. Richards (2025), Who will fill the climate-data void left by the Trump administration?, Nature, 14 Nov., https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-025-03532-4.

Perez, N., and R. Waldholz (2025), Trump is withdrawing from the Paris Agreement (again), reversing U.S. climate policy, NPR, 21 Jan., www.npr.org/2025/01/21/nx-s1-5266207/trump-paris-agreement-biden-climate-change.

U.S. Department of Energy (2025), A Critical Review of Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the U.S. Climate, Climate Working Group, Washington, D.C., www.energy.gov/topics/climate.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2025), Proposed rule: Reconsideration of 2009 Endangerment Finding and greenhouse gas vehicle standards, 22 Aug., www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/proposed-rule-reconsideration-2009-endangerment-finding.

van Deelen, G. (2025), NOAA halts maintenance of key Arctic data at National Snow and Ice Data Center, Eos, 8 May, eos.org/research-and-developments/noaa-halts-maintenance-of-key-arctic-data-at-national-snow-and-ice-data-center.

van Deelen, G. (2025), Proposed NOAA budget calls for $0 for climate research, Eos, 2 July, eos.org/research-and-developments/proposed-noaa-budget-calls-for-0-for-climate-research.

van Deelen, G. (2025), Public speaks out against EPA plan to rescind Endangerment Finding, Eos, 25 Aug., eos.org/research-and-developments/public-speaks-out-against-epa-plan-to-rescind-endangerment-finding.

van Deelen, G. (2025), Trump proposes weakening fuel economy rules for vehicles, Eos, 3 Dec., eos.org/research-and-developments/trump-proposes-to-weaken-fuel-economy-rules-for-vehicles.

Waldman, S. (2025), It’s the gold standard of US climate research. Contratians could write the next one., E&E News, 22 Dec., www.eenews.net/articles/its-the-gold-standard-of-us-climate-research-contrarians-could-write-the-next-one/.

Eos (@eos.org)

Citation: AGU (2026), The state of the science 1 year on: Climate change and energy, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260002. Published on 15 January 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

The State of the Science 1 Year On: Academia and Research

Thu, 01/15/2026 - 13:59
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Part 5 of “The State of the Science 1 Year On,” a report from Eos and AGU

The State of the Science 1 Year On Overview

In its first year, the second administration of President Donald Trump has taken numerous actions, in the form of both sweeping policy initiatives and directives targeted at specific groups or institutions, to reshape academia and higher education. Many have affected academic scientists’ funding and ability to pursue their research across an array of disciplines; others have presented new challenges and burdens for current and aspiring students.

These actions have not gone unchallenged. Insiders and observers have called out threats to academic freedom and autonomy, and some schools, states, professional organizations, and individuals have pushed back on campuses and in the courts. Others have negotiated with the administration in their attempts to navigate the rapidly shifting landscape of U.S. higher education.

Funding Cuts Hit Research Hard

Among the highest-profile actions of the Trump administration aimed at academia have been its attempts to cancel or claw back billions of dollars in federal funding awarded to specific universities, including grants for scientific and medical research. The administration has also raised taxes on wealthy universities and, at times, threatened the tax-exempt status of some (most notably Harvard University) as punishments for alleged wrongdoings or ideological differences. These schools have responded in different ways to try to preserve their funding.

When the administration announced in March that it would review federal contracts and grants with Harvard—and soon thereafter demanded a litany of changes to the school’s hiring, admissions, and operations policies to “maintain Harvard’s financial relationship with the federal government”—Harvard rejected the demands, with university president Alan Garber saying the school would not “surrender its independence.” The administration countered by freezing more than $2 billion in grants. Harvard then sued, arguing the administration was improperly overreaching with its funding cuts.

Most other universities threatened with funding pullbacks have at least partially acceded to administration demands to reinstate federal research money. Columbia University agreed in July to pay a $200 million fine and change hiring and admissions practices to restore $400 million in funding. Brown University similarly made a deal to preserve more than $500 million by agreeing to make administrative policy changes and to put $50 million toward state workforce programs.

Cornell University and Northwestern University later struck agreements too.

Federal judges have handed some victories to schools, victories that may be temporary if rulings are appealed. In response to lawsuits filed by faculty groups at the University of California, Los Angeles, and the American Association of University Professors (AAUP), for example, a judge issued several orders to block a $1.2 billion fine and restore hundreds of grants from the National Science Foundation (NSF) and National Institutes of Health (NIH). And in September, Harvard prevailed in its suit against the government.

The turmoil, uncertainty, and interruptions from monthslong conflicts with the administration have slowed or stalled scientific research projects on campuses.

Even with court victories and negotiated deals reinstating funding, the turmoil, uncertainty, and interruptions from monthslong—and in some cases ongoing—conflicts with the administration have slowed or stalled scientific research projects on campuses. They have also led numerous universities and colleges to cut spending through hiring freezes and layoffs.

Academic science has been under pressure not only through the administration’s targeting of universities directly but also through its efforts to remake the federal grantmaking process, reduce the amounts and types of external research funded, and reduce budget appropriations for scientific research by more than 20% through large-scale cutbacks and reorganizations in federal science agencies. Unsurprisingly, the administration’s actions are having ripple effects for higher education, business (among companies who supply scientific products, for instance), and public health.

Substantial changes at NSF, which provides roughly a quarter of federal funds for basic research at colleges and universities, began almost immediately upon Trump’s return to office. Expert grant review panels were canceled in late January. By early February, staffers were reviewing keywords in thousands of existing projects to screen for any language that might conflict with early executive orders related to the recognition of genders and curtailing diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) efforts. Grant pauses and holdups continued through spring as reviews expanded to target awards for research on climate change, environmental and social justice, and misinformation. In May, NSF announced plans to abolish dozens of divisions. And in December, the administration said it would dismantle the NSF-sponsored National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The decision elicited strong criticism—and support for NCAR—from numerous scientists, including many attending AGU’s Annual Meeting when the announcement was made.

Despite the upheaval, NSF still provided more than $8 billion in funding in fiscal year (FY) 2025, according to an analysis by Science. Yet the many changes in grant reviews and awards slowed the process considerably and created confusion both within the agency and among researchers who depend on it. The changes also led to the termination of thousands of existing grants as well as a 20% reduction in the number of new grants awarded.

Other agencies experienced upheavals in funding, grantmaking, and staffing. At NOAA, these upheavals included the proposal to eliminate the agency’s primary research arm (the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) as well as funding for climate research facilities and grants. Further, multiple key datasets and data products used by scientists, decisionmakers, and companies—such as the Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters product and the Sea Ice Index (maintained by the National Snow and Ice Data Center)—have been discontinued or lost support. These losses prompted grassroots efforts by scientists and institutions both domestically and internationally, as well as a push in Congress, to preserve imperiled datasets.

At NASA, concerns over near-term funding and policy directions led to delayed calls for grant requests, a decrease in grants awarded, substantial staff cuts, and facility closures. Uncertainties about the status of ongoing and future science missions have also left the availability of mission datasets up in the air.

Meanwhile, the Department of Energy (DOE), the country’s single biggest funding agency for physical science, is collapsing six scientific panels into a single Office of Science Advisory Committee. The new committee will, according to an agency statement, still include “leaders from academia, industry, and National Laboratories,” but the news left some scientists concerned about losing important avenues of input to the agency and the possibility that political appointees may have greater say over DOE science.

At the EPA and NIH, too, significant reductions in force, uncertainty stemming from proposals to end data collection (e.g., through EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program), and changes and cutbacks in grantmaking are affecting research inside and outside these agencies. EPA and NIH each ended hundreds of awards, most supporting work on administration-targeted topics such as environmental justice, climate, DEI, and transgender health.

However, federal judges halted some grant terminations, and NIH agreed to review grant proposals that were previously denied, withdrawn, or frozen because of administration directives.

To go along with the thousands of individual research projects lost or limited by terminated grants, cuts at federal agencies have also hit projects involving and serving scientists across sectors. Support has been pulled for, among other projects, the Cosmic Microwave Background Stage 4, which would have built new radio telescopes to detect clues about the origins of the universe, as well as the country’s only icebreaker supporting Antarctic research.

And in April, the government announced it was canceling funding for and releasing scientists involved in producing the next National Climate Assessment (NCA), due to be released in 2028. Published quadrennially through the U.S. Global Change Research Program (which the administration also ended), the previous five NCAs represented the consensus, science-based evaluation of how climate change is and will continue affecting the country’s environment, economy, and people. In response to the cancellation, AGU and the American Meteorological Society announced they were partnering to create a special research collection “to sustain the momentum of the sixth National Climate Assessment almost a year into the process.”

New Obstacles for Students

A signature goal of Trump’s second administration—and one that was aggressively advanced during its first year—is to dismantle the Department of Education (ED) as much as possible.

In mid-February, Linda McMahon, during her confirmation hearing to become secretary of education, signaled how the administration would aim to relocate ED programs to other departments. That announcement came on the heels of hundreds of millions of dollars in cuts to an ED office tracking student progress and Trump saying he wanted McMahon to “put herself out of a job.” In March, an executive order directed McMahon to “facilitate the closure” of ED.

Authority to abolish the department ultimately rests with Congress, but the administration has nonetheless been able to push its agenda forward through dramatic cuts and reorganizations. It reshaped department advisory boards, for example, such as those focused on education science and the accreditation of higher education institutions. The administration also ended funding to grant programs designated specifically for minority-serving institutions and selectively terminated or rejected grants to schools that mentioned DEI in their grant applications.

In November, ED said it would move several offices, including the Office of Postsecondary Education, to the Department of Labor (DOL). Critics argued that moving programs does little to clear red tape and instead imperils services because DOL is not equipped to run them.

Disruptions to federal education funding are not limited to ED. After NSF gave out far fewer awards than usual through its Graduate Research Fellowship Program (GRFP) in the spring, for example, its months-delayed release of guidance for the next round of awards caused substantial confusion among would-be applicants. When the GRFP guidance was released in September, students learned they had less time than usual to complete applications and that second-year Ph.D. students were no longer eligible to apply.

The major shift in GRFP policy left thousands of budding scientists—some of whom purposefully waited until their second year of graduate school to apply to improve their chances of success—without an opportunity to even be considered. Earlier in the year, funding uncertainties at NSF also frustrated undergraduates as the agency reduced support to schools through its Research Experiences for Undergraduates program.

The One Big Beautiful Bill, signed into law in July, as well as subsequent decisions made significant changes to student loan and loan forgiveness plans, including borrowing maximums, the types and lengths of loan repayment plans available, and student eligibility for Pell Grants. And even before July, administration moves to slow or stop the application process for loan forgiveness under certain conditions led to new confusion for borrowers and drew a lawsuit from the American Federation of Teachers, which resulted in a settlement to resume processing loan forgiveness applications.

International students already in the United States or looking to apply have found themselves in limbo as well because of the administration’s approaches to immigration, research security, and other concerns. Early in the year, alongside incidents of international students being arrested and detained, the administration revoked visas for more than 1,500 students. These actions sowed confusion and fear among the nation’s international student body, which numbers more than 1 million. International students account for only about 6% of enrollment in U.S. colleges but make up the majority in many graduate science, technology, engineering, and mathematics fields.

Even after restoring most of the canceled visas in April, the administration suggested it would continue pursuing revocations. Indeed, just a month later it announced it would temporarily stop scheduling interviews for new student visas and would start revoking visas for Chinese students studying in “critical fields” out of concern that these students’ access to U.S. training and funding were benefiting China’s government.

These measures appear to have had a chilling effect on the interest or ability of students from abroad to study in the United States. International student applications dropped 9% compared to the prior year, according to the Institute of International Education, and the size of the international student body in graduate programs dropped by 12%.

The new obstacles for both domestic and international students, combined with lost funding and research support, contributed to decisions by graduate programs at many schools to scale back or altogether forgo admissions of new students. “If this keeps up,” one scientist told Nature, “it would be really devastating for the field, because this is where the next generation of experts comes from.”

Fears for Academic Freedom

Many of the Trump administration’s actions regarding higher education and academic research have been aimed at pressuring the administrators and faculty to reshape their schools’ curricula and programming.

Many of the Trump administration’s actions regarding higher education and academic research have been aimed at pressuring administrators and faculty to reshape their schools’ curricula and programming. Critics saw these actions as open threats to academic freedom.

In May, Trump issued an executive order on “Restoring Gold Standard Science.” It calls out a supposed crisis of public confidence in science amid perceived misuses of data and purportedly seeks to bolster research that is reproducible and transparent. Although these are widely accepted qualities of good science, critics argued the order would only undermine confidence in science while opening the door to greater administration control over federally funded research.

In August, Trump issued another, more focused executive order on “Improving Oversight of Federal Grantmaking,” which stipulates that senior political appointees review and approve new funding opportunities and grant applications.

When the president threatened to punish university accrediting organizations for focusing on DEI-related criteria, the AAUP accused the administration of weaponizing the accreditation process and called it “another attempt to dictate what is taught, learned, said and done by college students and instructors.”

Trump’s campaign to reshape universities reached a crescendo in early October when it sent letters to nine schools asking them to sign a “Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education.”

Trump’s 2025 campaign to reshape universities reached a crescendo in early October when it sent letters to nine schools asking them to sign a “Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education” in exchange for “multiple positive benefits.” The compact comprised a long list of administration goals, such as banning consideration of demographics in admissions, aid, and hiring decisions; ending “institutional units that purposefully punish, belittle, and even spark violence against conservative ideas”; and recognizing strict definitions of gender. The compact’s touted benefits included greater access to funding, higher payments for overhead costs, and administration acknowledgment that schools “are complying with civil rights law and pursuing Federal priorities with vigor.”

Seven of the nine schools rejected the letter soon after receiving it, and reactions from the higher education community to the compact, which the administration indicated could be extended to any interested schools, were overwhelmingly negative.

Many university leaders, education organizations, and faculty and student groups voiced alarm, for example, about clear infringements on academic freedom (the document explicitly states that “academic freedom is not absolute”) and the fact that the compact would reward schools on the basis of loyalty to the administration rather than merit. Some schools, however, engaged with the administration to provide feedback about the initial compact and have been reluctant to share details of their positions; a few expressed interest in signing it.

The administration has also sought to oust specific administrators and pressure researchers into compliance. The administration’s attacks on University of Virginia president James Ryan over the school’s DEI programming, for example, led Ryan to resign in June. Individual academics, particularly those researching misinformation, cybersecurity, and other politically sensitive topics, were also targeted and, at times, succumbed to pressure to leave their positions.

Another thrust of the pressure campaign on researchers has involved examining and limiting their freedom to work with foreign scientists, as well as influencing foreign scientists themselves. In May, for example, NIH announced a new policy barring scientists from providing funding—in the form of subawards from grants given to U.S. researchers—to international collaborators. In the fall, Congress considered legislation amounting to an outright prohibition on U.S. scientists collaborating with researchers or advising students “affiliated with a hostile foreign entity,” specifically China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia.

That bill drew substantial pushback from academia and failed to gain traction, although in December, the House passed the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, which still includes security restrictions for U.S. researchers.

Some foreign scientists themselves have been subjected to sweeping travel bans and denials of entry into the United States for allegedly criticizing the Trump administration. Scientists abroad who receive U.S. funding were sent surveys probing whether their research aligns with the administration’s agenda. In addition, foreign scientists seeking employment in the United States, including as postdocs and faculty at universities, now face a much steeper barrier to entry because of a new policy requiring employers to pay $100,000—instead of just a few thousand dollars—to secure an H-1B visa for their would-be hire.

Meanwhile, numerous U.S.-based researchers have contemplated trying to find employment in other countries, raising widespread concerns of a brain drain from the country’s scientific enterprise. In March, Nature reported that 75% of roughly 1,600 respondents to a poll they conducted said they were “considering leaving the United States following the disruptions prompted by Trump.” And spurred by interest from other countries—from Canada to Europe to Asia—to entice U.S scientists with opportunities for employment abroad, at least some scientists have departed.

Resolute Resistance

The array of actions taken by the Trump administration to impose its will on the academic community prompted strong resistance and a multitude of rebuttals, many taking shape in courtrooms.

Major private and public universities initiated or joined lawsuits to try to win back canceled grants and contracts, challenge a cap on reimbursements, and fight limitations on enrolling international students.

Major private and public universities initiated or joined lawsuits to try to win back canceled grants and contracts, challenge caps on reimbursements of research overhead costs, and fight limitations on enrolling international students.

Organizations representing higher education—such as AAUP, the Association of American Universities, and the American Association of Colleges and Universities—issued multiple statements about executive orders and the administration’s punitive actions against universities. Some organizations also led legal challenges.

State governments, too, joined forces to fight the administration’s education cuts in court. Some have also tried to fill gaps created by the cuts, such as in Oregon, where lawmakers looked to preserve and expand education programs like the state’s Tribal Student Grant program.

In many cases, faculty themselves stepped up to call individuals and their institutions to action and take the government to court. In April, more than 1,900 scientists—all elected members of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine—signed an open letter calling out the “real danger” posed to science by the administration’s actions. The same month, faculty groups at Big Ten universities began issuing resolutions asking their institutions to enter a mutual defense pact under which they could pool legal and financial resources in the event the administration targeted any of the schools.

Individual researchers have also instigated lawsuits to fight grant terminations they said were unjust and unexplained. Four scientists from institutions across the country, for example, joined with several organizations to file suit over terminated NIH and NSFgrants. (An initial U.S. District Court ruling in their favor was partly put on hold by the Supreme Court.)

In another case, a federal judge sided in June with a small group of researchers from the University of California, Berkeley, who, aided by colleagues from the university’s law school, sued over their own canceled grants. Alongside these legal challenges, other researchers have entered the fray by helping to track and organize information about terminated grants and by ramping up efforts to communicate about their science directly to the public.

What’s on the Horizon?

The first year of the second Trump administration was a colossal shock to the higher education system in the United States. The second year may follow suit. The lasting effects of the record-long 43-day federal shutdown will not be clear for weeks or months. The shutdown cut off communications with furloughed federal researchers, halted processing of grant applications, and, in some cases, limited researchers’ ability to draw existing grant funds.

Uncertainties around funding have been compounded by the fact that Congress has not settled on a full FY2026 budget and that it faces the potential for another shutdown in late January. House and Senate versions of the budget include substantially higher funding for science than was included in Trump’s budget request, but specific allocations remain unknown. Furthermore, numerous lawsuits challenging the legality of recent executive orders and administration efforts to cancel grants, curtail specific fields of research, and limit who is eligible for future funding—and even just to be on U.S. campuses—are still working their way through the courts. Rulings to date have predominantly been in favor of plaintiffs, a good sign for higher education institutions, but their ultimate outcomes are yet to be seen.

Curated Links

Key resources for this report and people interested in this topic:

American Council on Education (2025), Higher education & the Trump administration, www.acenet.edu/Policy-Advocacy/Pages/2025-Trump-Administration-Transition.aspx.

Blake, J. (2025), Tracking key lawsuits against the Trump administration, Inside Higher Ed, 17 Nov., www.insidehighered.com/news/government/politics-elections/2025/09/30/tracking-key-lawsuits-against-trump-administration.

Blinder, A. (2025), How universities are responding to Trump, New York Times, 7 Nov., www.nytimes.com/article/trump-university-college.html.

Garisto, D., M. Kozlov, and H. Ledford (2025), Scientists take on Trump: These researchers are fighting back, Nature, 645, 298–300, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-025-02811-4.

Herrman, J. (2025), Politicizing the federal grantmaking process, Government Executive, 19 Aug., www.govexec.com/management/2025/08/politicizing-federal-grantmaking-process/407558/.

Jones, B. (2025), AGU and AMS join forces on special collection to maintain research momentum supporting the US National Climate assessment, From the Prow, 2 May, fromtheprow.agu.org/nca-science-will-not-be-silenced/.

Jones, B. (2025), All that’s gold does not glitter, From the Prow, 20 Aug., fromtheprow.agu.org/all-thats-gold-does-not-glitter/.

Moldwin, M. (2025), Senior scientists must stand up against attacks on research and education, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250180.

National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities (2025), Executive orders affecting higher education, www.naicu.edu/policy-advocacy/advocacy-resources/fact-sheet-executive-orders-affecting-higher-education/.

Ro, C. (2025), The economic effects of federal cuts to US science — in 24 graphs, Nature, 25 June, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-025-01830-5.

van Deelen, G. (2025), U.S. National Climate Assessment likely dead after contract canceled, Eos, 9 Apr., eos.org/research-and-developments/u-s-national-climate-assessment-likely-dead-after-contract-canceled.

van Deelen, G. (2025), Universities reject Trump funding deal, Eos, 17 Oct., eos.org/research-and-developments/universities-reject-trump-funding-deal.

Wallack, T., M. Javaid, and S. Svrluga (2025), How foreign student enrollment is shifting in the U.S., in 6 charts, Washington Post, 17 Nov., www.washingtonpost.com/education/2025/11/17/foreign-student-enrollment-data/.

Witze, A. (2025), 75% of US scientists who answered Nature poll consider leaving, Nature, 640, 298–299, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-025-00938-y.

Eos (@eos.org)

Citation: AGU (2026), The state of the science 1 year on: Academia, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260005. Published on 15 January 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

The State of the Science 1 Year On: Environment

Thu, 01/15/2026 - 13:59
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Part 6 of “The State of the Science 1 Year On,” a report from Eos and AGU

The State of the Science 1 Year On Overview

Both on the campaign trail and during his time in office, President Donald Trump has spoken about wanting clean air and water for Americans. He even established a Make America Beautiful Again Commission and called himself an environmentalist.

He has also rescinded executive orders from past presidents aimed at protecting the environment, made “drill, baby, drill” one of his catchphrases, and described the concept of a carbon footprint as “a hoax made up by people with evil intentions.”

Since Trump took office in his second term, his administration has worked to roll back environmental protections. This work has included efforts to fast-track permits for mining, oil and gas exploration, and artificial intelligence infrastructure; changing pollution limits and reporting requirements; curtailing protections for public lands; and even narrowing the scope of the Endangered Species Act.

Air and Water Quality

Scientists play an important role in monitoring and protecting the quality of our nation’s air and water. Funding and staffing cuts have made this work increasingly difficult to do.

The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), Trump’s omnibus spending bill for fiscal year 2026, suggests eliminating the research arm of NOAA and closing all weather and climate labs. It also includes a $2.46 billion cut to EPA’s Clean and Drinking Water State Revolving Funds, $1.01 billion in cuts to categorical grants that fund air and water quality efforts, and $721 million in cuts to the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development Program, which includes support to repair water systems damaged by disasters.

“Trump’s plan to virtually eliminate federal funding for clean, safe water represents a malevolent disregard for public health,” said Food & Water Watch executive director Wenonah Hauter in a statement.

The budget also eliminates the launch of a planned NOAA satellite, part of Geostationary Extended Observations, that would measure pollution, including from wildfire smoke, from space.

Independent of the proposed budget, the Trump administration also ordered the closure of 25 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Water Science Centers, which monitor U.S. waters for flooding and drought, as well as manage supply levels.

At NOAA’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, funding cuts have made it difficult for staff to purchase equipment. A 35% staff cut reduced scientists’ capacity to monitor the region’s harmful algal blooms, which can cause illness in humans and death in animals.

A common tactic by the Trump administration has been to shift pollution limits (or proposed limits) and to reduce the requirements for some entities to self-report pollution statistics. For instance, in May, the EPA announced that it would reconsider the limits for four per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in drinking water. PFAS are “forever chemicals” linked to developmental delays in children, cancer, and reduced fertility. Months later, however, the EPA announced that it would uphold a Biden era rule that holds polluters accountable for PFAS and perfluorooctanoic acid contamination.

In September, the administration proposed narrowing the scope of safety review for some chemicals already on the market, including formaldehyde and asbestos, a move praised by the chemical industry.

Also in September, provisions in the House and Senate annual Defense authorization bills sought to delay the phaseout of PFAS in the Pentagon. Jared Hayes, a senior policy analyst at the Environmental Working Group, told The Hill that such a delay would increase contamination, “essentially condemning more defense communities and another generation of service members.” Lawmakers across the country questioned the move in a formal letter to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The Department of Defense (now also known as the Department of War) also changed the timeline for cleanup of PFAS at more than 100 military sites around the country—in some cases by up to a decade, reported The New York Times.

In September, the EPA withdrew a proposed rule that would have tightened water pollution limits for slaughterhouses, which in 2019 released more than 28 million pounds (almost 13 million kilograms) of nutrients that can contaminate drinking water.

The cleanup of an oil spill in Louisiana, which left some residents’ homes and water supply contaminated, faced delays in September, in part because of funding cuts. A letter to the EPA from the Louisiana Environmental Action Network stated that people were reporting negative health effects daily.

In November, the EPA ended a Biden era rule that strengthened regulations on soot. The EPA previously predicted that the change would prevent up to 4,500 premature deaths in 2032, when the rule was scheduled to be fully in effect. Then, in December, the EPA proposed a revision to its assessment of the health risks of formaldehyde that would double the amount of the cancer-causing toxin considered safe to inhale.

Public Lands and Waters

Reorganization of the Department of the Interior, budget cuts to programs intended to protect national parks and federal lands, and narrowing the scope of the Endangered Species Act have threatened public lands, waters, and wetlands in the United States—and the creatures that call them home.

Texas oil executive Tyler Hassen was tasked with reorganizing the Interior Department in May. After leading a massive consolidation effort, he left the department in November, as reported by E&E News. Plans to lay off more than 2,000 workers were temporarily paused by a federal judge in October.

In June, the Department of Justice reversed a 1938 legal opinion by determining that Trump has the authority to abolish protected areas that past presidents designated as national monuments. Also in June, a Republican senator added a proposal to the OBBB that would allow the U.S. Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management to sell off 2 million to 3 million acres (1.2 million hectares) of federal land. The proposal faced widespread backlash and was promptly removed.

In the summer, the U.S. Department of Agriculture proposed rescinding the 2001 Roadless Area Conservation Rule, which protects about 45 million acres of National Forest System lands from road construction, reconstruction, and timber harvests. Nearly 224,000 people and organizations spoke out about the issue during the public comment period. According to the Center for Western Priorities, an environmental group, about 99% of the comments opposed the repeal.

“The Roadless Rule is one of the best ideas the U.S. Forest Service has ever had and repealing it is one of the worst,” said Vera Smith, national forests and public lands program director at Defenders of Wildlife, in a statement.

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum also proposed rescinding a public land management rule that made conservation a “use” of public lands in the same way that drilling and other extractive industries are considered uses.

The government is also transferred 760 acres of public land in California to the Navy to establish a “National Defense Area” in December and is considering giving 775 acres of the Lower Rio Grande Valley National Wildlife Refuge in Texas to SpaceX.

The administration has also aimed to reduce or eliminate protections for U.S. waters and wetlands. In April, Trump signed an executive order opening a protected area of the central Pacific Ocean to commercial fishing. In November, the administration announced a proposal to redefine “waters of the United States” in a way that would eliminate protections for about 85% of the nation’s wetlands and more than 70% of the Colorado River’s flow sources.

Rollbacks in protections for public lands and waters often come with harms for the creatures living in these habitats, but the current administration has also introduced legislation that could have more direct effects on plants and animals. In August, the Department of Homeland Security waived protections provided by the Endangered Species Act and other statues in Texas’s Lower Rio Grande Valley National Wildlife Refuge to expedite construction of a border wall.

In April, the Department of the Interior proposed redefining “harm” under the Endangered Species Act. The new definition would include only taking direct, intentional action to kill or injure endangered or threatened species. It would no longer include “significant habitat modification or degradation” that leads to such ends, which was included in the 1973 passage of the act and upheld in a 1995 ruling. “What they’re proposing will just fundamentally upend how we’ve been protecting endangered species in this country,” Noah Greenwald, codirector of endangered species at the Center for Biological Diversity, told The Los Angeles Times.

Fast-Tracking Permits

The Trump administration has reduced or eliminated many existing procedures meant to limit the environmental harm of development projects.

The 1970 National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requires federal agencies to assess the environmental effects of potential projects. Environmental impact statements are required if a proposed action is expected to have a “significant effect” on the environment. The act includes a public comment period, but 2025 changes to NEPA procedures have shortened notice and public comment periods.

“This disastrous decision to undermine our nation’s bedrock environmental law means our air and water will be more polluted, the climate and extinction crises will intensify, and people will be less healthy.”

In January, the administration finalized plans to rescind NEPA-related regulations.

In May, the Supreme Court limited the scope of environmental reviews with a ruling about a proposed railway in Utah.

“This disastrous decision to undermine our nation’s bedrock environmental law means our air and water will be more polluted, the climate and extinction crises will intensify, and people will be less healthy,” Wendy Park, a lawyer with the Center for Biological Diversity, said in a statement.

In July, Trump issued an executive order to accelerate federal permitting of infrastructure for data centers, which can use more than a million gallons of water per day. In August, another executive order authorized the secretary of transportation to “eliminate or expedite” environmental reviews for commercial space launch and reentry permits.

The administration has also made efforts to expedite permitting for mining projects, vowing to reduce a sometimes yearslong process down “to just 28 days at most.” In May, the Interior Department announced plans to complete the environmental assessment for the Velvet-Wood mine project in Utah in just 2 weeks. Construction of the mine, which is set to extract uranium and vanadium, began in November.

“Beautiful Clean Coal”

According to the 2024 Global Carbon Budget, coal is responsible for 41% of global fossil carbon dioxide emissions. It also emits chemicals that are harmful to human health, such as sulfur dioxides and heavy metals. Reliance on coal in the United Staes has been falling for decades: In 2001, about 51% of the country’s net electricity generation came from coal. By 2023, the figure had dropped to 16.2%.

However, a boom in building artificial intelligence data centers, supported by the administration, threatens to reverse the decline, E&E News reported.

An April executive order focused on reviving the coal industry laid out plans to enable coal mining on federal lands and revise regulations aimed at transitioning the country away from coal production. The order also designated coal as a critical mineral.

The same month, the administration exempted at least 66 coal plants from Biden era requirements to reduce emissions of toxins such as mercury and arsenic.

Georgia resident Andrea Goolsby told E&E News she was relieved when Georgia Power announced the retirement of a nearby coal plant in 2022. But in January, the utility company announced that the plant would stay open until 2039, and in April, it became one of the 66 plants exempted from emission reduction requirements.

“It feels like we’re going back in time…I don’t understand why they are giving pollution passes that affect people’s health.”

“It feels like we’re going back in time,” Goolsby told E&E. “I don’t understand why they are giving pollution passes that affect people’s health.”

In November, the EPA proposed delaying the closure of coal ash ponds—which are leaking materials such as arsenic and lead into surrounding groundwater—at 11 coal power plants until October 2031.

A March executive order demanded action to increase production of minerals more generally, including uranium, potash, gold, and critical minerals. In November, that list of critical minerals grew by 10, bringing the total to 60. Among the additions were copper, lead, silver, and uranium.

The administration has also worked to expand the scope of where mining occurs.

A provision in the OBBB, for instance, aimed to end a 20-year moratorium on mining in Minnesota’s popular Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness. The language was removed by a House committee before the OBBB was signed into law, but the Trump administration announced plans to end the moratorium anyway.

The Trump administration’s efforts to expand mining stretch beyond land and, indeed, beyond the borders of the United States. An April executive order called for expediting the permitting process for companies to mine the deep sea in areas both within and beyond national jurisdiction. In late December, the administration announced it was formally considering permit applications for seafloor mining and that it would hold public hearings on the applications in late January 2026.

Looking Ahead

The Trump administration announces changes to environmental policy almost daily, and their effects often don’t manifest immediately.

In November, the Energy Department posted a revised organizational chart that among other changes, no longer displays the Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations. It remains to be seen how this cut will affect the mission of the department, which has seen a roughly 20% reduction in its workforce over the past year, according to The New York Times. The same month, the Interior Department proposed opening up the coastal waters of California and Florida to offshore oil drilling, a plan that was met with opposition by the governors of both states. Potential health and economic costs aside, scientists and other stakeholders are concerned that the “continued politicization of science-based policy making threatens our environmental resilience, particularly in the face of climate change,” wrote hydrologist Adam Ward.

Curated Links

Key resources for this report and people interested in this topic:

Center for Western Priorities (2025), Comment analysis finds over 99% opposition to repealing 2001 roadless rule, 19 Sept., westernpriorities.org/2025/09/comment-analysis-finds-over-99-opposition-to-repealing-2001-roadless-rule/.

Daly, M. (2025), Trump exempts nearly 70 coal plants from Biden-era rule on mercury and other toxic air pollution, Associated Press, 15 April, apnews.com/article/trump-coal-power-plants-epa-exemptions-zeldin-2cd9f2697b5f46a88ab9882ab6fd1641.

Environmental Integrity (2025), Cuts to State Environmental Agencies Compound Damage from
Trump’s Dismantling of EPA, 10 Dec., https://environmentalintegrity.org/news/cuts-to-state-environmental-agencies-compound-damage-from-trumps-dismantling-of-epa/

Gardner, E. (2025), Judge stops shutdown-related RIFs indefinitely, Eos, 28 Oct., eos.org/research-and-developments/judge-stops-shutdown-related-rifs-indefinitely.

Gelles, D. (2025), Trump’s environmental claims ignore decades of climate science, New York Times, 29 Oct., www.nytimes.com/2024/10/29/climate/donald-trump-climate-change-claims.html.

Gladstone, S. (2025), Trump’s 2026 budget plan nearly eliminates federal funding for clean water in America, Food & Water Watch, 2 May, www.foodandwaterwatch.org/2025/05/02/trumps-2026-budget-plan-nearly-eliminates-federal-funding-for-clean-water-in-america/.

Liptak, A. (2025), Supreme Court curbs scope of environmental reviews, New York Times, 29 May, www.nytimes.com/2025/05/29/us/politics/supreme-court-environmental-reviews.html.

Moreno, I. (2025), New tools show how Trump EPA funding cuts harms communities, Natural Resources Defense Council, 16 Sept., www.nrdc.org/press-releases/new-tools-show-how-trump-epa-funding-cuts-harms-communities.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2025), EPA & Army Corps unveil clear, durable WOTUS proposal, 17 Nov., www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-army-corps-unveil-clear-durable-wotus-proposal.

van Deelen, G. (2025), EPA to abandon stricter PM2.5 air pollution limits, Eos, 26 Nov., eos.org/research-and-developments/epa-to-abandon-stricter-pm2-5-air-pollution-limits.

Vought, R.T. (2025), FY2026 budget recommendations, Office of Management and Budget, Washington, D.C., 2 May, www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Fiscal-Year-2026-Discretionary-Budget-Request.pdf.

Eos (@eos.org)

Citation: AGU (2026), The state of the science 1 year on: Environment, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260006. Published on 15 January 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

The Past 3 Years Have Been the Three Hottest on Record

Wed, 01/14/2026 - 17:00

Global average temperatures in 2025 were the third hottest on record, surpassed only by 2024 and 2023, according to an analysis published by Berkeley Earth, a nonprofit climate research organization.

According to the analysis, last year’s global average temperature was about 1.35°C–1.53°C (2.43°F–2.75°F) greater than the 1850–1900 average. The previous year, 2024, was 1.46°C–1.62°C (2.63°F–2.92°F) above the preindustrial baseline, while 2023 was 1.48°C–1.60°C (2.66°F–2.88°F) above the baseline.

The report’s authors called the exceptional heat of the past 3 years a “warming spike” that may indicate an acceleration in the rate of climate change. “The warming observed from 2023 through 2025 stands out clearly from the long-term trend,” said Robert Rohde, chief scientist at Berkeley Earth, in a statement. 

Such a spike may also indicate that the past warming rate is no longer a reliable predictor of future warming, the authors wrote.

“2023, 2024, and 2025 collectively cause us to rethink” Earth’s warming rate, Rohde said in a press briefing. Whether warming is accelerating or not, Earth’s temperature is rapidly exceeding key thresholds, such as the Paris Agreement limit of 1.5°C (2.7°F), he said.

Scientists say the exceptional warming observed in the past 3 years could be evidence of accelerating warming. Credit: Berkeley Earth, CC BY-NC 4.0

“The overall trends in temperature are very consistent” among international agencies that track global temperature.

The report aligns with an analysis from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) that also concluded that 2025 was the third-hottest year in the global temperature record. NOAA-NCEI calculated that the year was 1.17°C (2.11°F) above the 20th-century global average.

“There are different methodologies for how the global temperature [reports] are created, but the science behind it, the data behind it, by and large, are all shared,” said Karin Gleason, a climate scientist and chief of the monitoring section at NOAA-NCEI.

“The overall trends in temperature are very consistent” among international agencies that track global temperature, she said.

What’s Causing the Spike?

While global average temperatures have been increasing for more than a century, the past 3 years’ warming spike is notably extreme relative to the mostly linear trend of the past 50 years. 

“The magnitude of this recent spike suggests additional factors have amplified recent warming beyond what we would expect from greenhouse gases and natural variability alone.”

“The magnitude of this recent spike suggests additional factors have amplified recent warming beyond what we would expect from greenhouse gases and natural variability alone,” Rohde said.

The report suggested that reductions in cloud cover and changes to atmospheric aerosols, particularly as a result of new regulations on sulfur pollution from ships in 2020, may be partly to blame for the spike. The Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption in 2022 may have also contributed to warming, though further research is needed to fully understand the eruption’s effects, the report stated.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate phenomenon that affects heat storage in the ocean, contributed to extreme heat in 2023 and 2024 during the El Niño phase, but remained in a weak La Niña condition for much of 2025. Such a condition would typically be expected to slightly cool global temperatures. Without the effect of La Niña, it’s possible 2025 would have been the hottest year ever recorded, Gleason said.

Gleason pointed out that a similar “warming spike” occurred in 2015 and 2016 as a result of a strong El Niño.

Humanity Faces the Heat

According to Berkeley Earth’s report, about 770 million people across the world experienced their local hottest year ever in 2025. The majority of the large population centers affected by this record-breaking heat were in Asia.

No place on Earth recorded the locally coldest year ever.

An estimated 770 million people experienced the locally hottest year ever recorded in 2025. Credit: Berkeley Earth, CC BY-NC 4.0

The report came as estimates from the Rhodium Group, a think tank, showed that the United States’ greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.4% in 2025 after 2 years of decline. The United States experienced its fourth-hottest year ever recorded in 2025, according to an analysis from Climate Central, a nonprofit climate change research group, and another analysis by NOAA-NCEI. 

The exceptional warming underscores “how essential sustained monitoring is to understanding [climate] changes in real time,” Kristen Sissener, executive director of Berkeley Earth, said in a statement. “Continued investment in high-quality, resilient, and robust open climate data is critical to ensuring that governments, industry, and local communities can respond based on evidence, not assumptions.”

The Berkeley Earth report predicted that global temperature trends in 2026 will be similar to those of 2025, with 2026 expected to be roughly the fourth-warmest year since records began. 

—Grace van Deelen (@gvd.bsky.social), Staff Writer

14 January: This story has been updated to include information from a Berkeley Earth press briefing.

Citation: van Deelen, G. (2026), The past 3 years have been the three hottest on record, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260031. Published on 14 January 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

AI Sheds Light on Hard-to-Study Ocean Currents

Wed, 01/14/2026 - 14:12
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation

The Indonesian Throughflow carries both warm water and fresh water from the Pacific into the Indian Ocean. As the only low-latitude current that connects the two bodies of water, it plays a key role in ocean circulation and sea surface temperature worldwide.

The current is as complex as it is important: The seas surrounding Indonesia are home to deep basins and sills and a hodgepodge of ocean processes that make the Indonesian Throughflow difficult to measure. On-the-ground—or, rather, on-the-sea—observations are scarce as well because such observational systems are expensive and difficult to design and maintain.

Wang et al. combined artificial intelligence (AI) modeling techniques with observing system simulation experiment design concepts. Their method used sea surface height measurements to predict the behavior of this influential current and its individual passages and estimate which strait has the greatest effect on the current’s behavior.

The researchers developed a deep learning model that uses two types of networks to conduct observing system simulation experiments. The first, called a convolutional neural network (CNN), is often used for image classification and, in this case, was used to extract trends from data about the Indonesian Throughflow. The second, called a recurrent neural network (RNN), is most commonly used to sort through sequential data. In this work, the RNN processed the trends identified by the CNN and analyzed their changes over time. The approach proved to be much less computationally costly than running a traditional observing system simulation experiment.

The results recapitulated observed water transport trends and showed that sea surface height is a key predictor of conditions in some of the shallower straits between Indonesian islands. The Maluku Strait emerged as a passage where water conditions have a strong influence on the entire system and thus as a strong candidate for future monitoring efforts, the researchers found. Combining information about the Maluku and Halmahera Straits was even more effective at predicting system-wide conditions. (Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JH000808, 2025)

—Saima May Sidik (@saimamay.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Sidik, S. M. (2026), AI sheds light on hard-to-study ocean currents, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260027. Published on 14 January 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Los microplásticos tienen efectos muy variados en el suelo

Wed, 01/14/2026 - 14:12

This is an authorized translation of an Eos article. Esta es una traducción al español autorizada de un artículo de Eos.

A medida que la producción mundial de plástico se ha disparado, pequeños fragmentos de plástico se han infiltrado en los ríos, el hielo marino e incluso en nuestros cerebros. De acuerdo con un nuevo estudio, cuando las minúsculas fibras y los fragmentos se filtran en el suelo, cambian la forma en que este interactúa con el agua.

El estudio, publicado en la revista Vadose Zone Journal, midió la retención de agua y la conductividad en suelos de tres regiones de Alemania con y sin cuatro microplásticos diferentes. Los investigadores encontraron que una concentración de plástico de solo el 0.4% en masa puede cambiar la velocidad con que el agua fluye a través del suelo, dependiendo tanto del tipo de plástico como del tipo de suelo. Según los autores, es probable que las propiedades hidráulicas alteradas se deban a la naturaleza hidrófoba del plástico y a que las partículas de microplástico cambian la disposición de los gránulos individuales del suelo.

Las pequeñas partículas del suelo se adhieren entre sí formando grumos. Los espacios entre estos grumos forman conductos por los que circulan agua, nutrientes y las raíces de las plantas. El tamaño y la distribución de estos espacios afectan al drenaje del suelo y a su capacidad de retención de agua, lo que tiene implicaciones para el crecimiento de las plantas.

“Las características hídricas de un suelo indican la rapidez con la que el agua se drena a través del suelo, lo que afecta a los cultivos y a los acuíferos.”

“Las características hídricas del suelo indican la rapidez con la que el agua se drena a través del suelo, lo que impacta cultivos y acuíferos”, menciona la autora principal del estudio, Katharina Neubert, científica especializada en suelos del Forschungszentrum Jülich en Alemania.

Investigaciones anteriores han mostrado que los microplásticos pueden alterar la estructura del suelo y sus propiedades hidráulicas, pero cada uno de esos estudios examinó sólo un tipo de suelo o un tipo de plástico. El nuevo estudio es el primero en evaluar cómo múltiples tipos de microplásticos afectan a múltiples tipos de suelo.

Los investigadores colectaron suelo de tres regiones agrícolas distintas de Alemania, que tenían diferentes texturas, niveles de carbono y niveles de pH. Después, obtuvieron cuatro microplásticos ampliamente usados variando en tamaño entre 300 micrómetros y 5 milímetros: polietileno, polipropileno, poliestireno y poliéster. Descompusieron las partículas más grandes en una licuadora y luego mezclaron cada plástico con cada tipo de suelo en una concentración del 0.4% en peso. En combinación con un control libre de plástico para cada tipo de suelo, se obtuvieron 15 combinaciones únicas de suelo y microplásticos.

Los autores vertieron cada mezcla en un cilindro metálico conectado a un dispositivo de succión para ver la rapidez con la que la succión extraía el agua del suelo. Realizaron la prueba en suelo húmedo y seco, ya que el nivel de humedad también influye en la rapidez con la que el agua se drena a través del suelo.

Desenterrando una relación matizada

Los cuatro microplásticos alteraron las tasas de flujo del agua en al menos uno de los suelos, pero la magnitud y la dirección del efecto variaron considerablemente. Por ejemplo, las fibras de poliéster, comúnmente desprendidas de algunos tipos de ropa, aumentaron la velocidad a la que fluía el agua a través de un suelo en más de un 50% cuando estaba húmedo, pero redujeron la tasa de flujo en más de un 50% en condiciones secas.

“Es muy difícil hacer una afirmación general sobre cómo cambia el suelo con los microplásticos.”

“Todos los resultados dependen del contexto”, afirma Rosolino Ingraffia, científico especializado en suelos de la Università degli Studi di Palermo en Italia, que no participó en la investigación. “Es muy difícil hacer una afirmación general sobre cómo cambia el suelo con los microplásticos”.

Otro estudio reciente en el que Neubert participó como coautora mostró cómo las diferencias en las tasas de flujo podrían traducirse en la agricultura. Ella cultivó plantas de trigo en los mismos tres tipos de suelo con y sin dos microplásticos: polietileno y poliéster. Los resultados fueron igualmente complicados, ya que el plástico añadido aumentaba, disminuía o no afectaba al crecimiento de las raíces, dependiendo de la combinación.

La concentración de plástico del 0.4% utilizada en ambos estudios es mucho mayor que la que albergan la mayoría de los campos agrícolas en la actualidad, según Neubert e Ingraffia. Por ejemplo, las tierras cultivables que han sido tratadas con biosólidos durante una década presentan concentraciones más cercanas al 0.002%. Sin embargo, los cálculos basados en la tasa actual de acumulación de microplásticos sugieren que muchas zonas podrían alcanzar esta concentración del 0.4% en 50 o 60 años, añadió Ingraffia.

Neubert espera que su investigación dé lugar a regulaciones que impidan que los microplásticos alcancen esos niveles. Alemania planea eliminar progresivamente el uso de lodos de depuradora ricos en nutrientes como fertilizantes en la mayoría de los campos agrícolas, en parte debido a la preocupación por la contaminación plástica, afirmó. Un estudio identificó esta práctica como una de las principales fuentes de microplásticos en el suelo de Alemania.

Es importante mantener el plástico fuera del suelo porque “aún no sabemos qué consecuencias tiene para nuestros suelos”, dijo Neubert.

—Mark DeGraff (@markr4nger.bsky.social), Escritor científico

This translation by Saúl A. Villafañe-Barajas (@villafanne) was made possible by a partnership with Planeteando and Geolatinas. Esta traducción fue posible gracias a una asociación con Planeteando y Geolatinas.

Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Where the Tianshan Will Break Next: Strain, Slip, and Seismic Hazard

Wed, 01/14/2026 - 14:00
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Geophysical Research Letters 

The Tianshan Mountains in Central Asia have produced more than 100 large earthquakes in the past three centuries, showing that many faults in the region are still active. Chang et al. [2025] use the complete set of available GNSS (satellite-based positioning) measurement data, from 936 stations, to map how the crust is currently deforming. From these measurements, surface strain rates are calculated and, using novel inversion methods, an estimate of the seismic potential can be provided.

The authors find that most deformation (about 70%) is concentrated in the western Tianshan, where mapped faults accommodate roughly 60% of this strain. By comparing these results with the history of past earthquakes, the study identifies 20 fault segments with a “deficit”, that is, capable of producing future earthquakes of magnitude 7 or larger.

This work provides the first region-wide model of slip deficit and seismic potential for Tianshan and offers information that can directly improve seismic hazard assessments in Central Asia. The findings are especially timely following the 2024 Mw 7.0 Wushi earthquake.

Citation: Chang, F., Fang, J., Dong, S., Yin, H., Rollins, C., Elliott, J. R., & Hooper, A. J. (2025). Geodetic strain rates, slip deficit rates, and seismic potential in the Tianshan, Central Asia. Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2025GL118470. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL118470   

—Fabio A. Capitanio, Editor, Geophysical Research Letters

Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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Melting Glaciers Mix Up Waters More Than We Thought

Tue, 01/13/2026 - 14:12
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans

As marine-terminating glaciers melt, the resulting freshwater is released at the seafloor, which mixes with salty seawater and influences circulation patterns. As the oceans warm, it’s growing increasingly important to study this process. Researchers do so using the framework of buoyant plume theory, which describes how rising freshwater interacts with denser salt water. Falling chunks of ice, which can easily crush boats, make working near glaciers dangerous. Thus, empirical data that can verify buoyant plume theory have rarely been collected.

Ovall et al. helped fill this gap by using remotely operated kayaks equipped with instruments to monitor the features of water flowing out from Xeitl Sít’ (also called LeConte Glacier) in southeastern Alaska. Their work marked the first time researchers took measurements of a plume’s size, shape, and velocity from directly above the upwelling plume.

The robotic kayaks allowed the researchers to observe the plume of rising freshwater without risking their own safety. Instruments aboard the kayaks sent acoustic signals downward, which bounced off particles within the rising plume to measure its velocity.

The volume and characteristics of the rising plume of water are substantially different from those predicted by buoyant plume theory, they found. The study’s measurements found that upwelling water moves at rates of more than a meter per second. Buoyant plume theory doesn’t capture the extent to which freshwater pulls salt water into the rising plume, leading researchers to underestimate the volume of the plume by as much as 50%. That mismatch likely arose in part because scientists underestimated how the shape of a glacier’s submarine portion affects the interaction between freshwater and ocean water. However, the authors note, there are likely other factors at play that have not yet been identified. (Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JC022902, 2025)

—Saima May Sidik (@saimamay.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Sidik, S. M. (2025), Melting glaciers mix up waters more than we thought, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250474. Published on 13 January 2025. Text © 2025. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

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