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Orbiter Pair Expands View of Martian Ionosphere

EOS - Fri, 06/20/2025 - 12:02
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets

Like Earth, Mars is surrounded by an ionosphere—the part of its upper atmosphere where radiation from the Sun knocks electrons off of atoms and molecules, creating charged particles. The Martian ionosphere is complex and continuously changes over the course of the day, but its role in atmospheric dynamics and radio communication signals means understanding it is key for Mars exploration.

One way to study the Martian ionosphere is with radio occultation, in which a spacecraft orbiting Mars sends a radio signal to a receiver on Earth. When it skims across the Martian ionosphere, the signal bends slightly. Researchers can measure this refraction to learn about Martian ionospheric properties such as electron density and temperature. However, the relative positions of Mars, Earth, and the Sun mean conventional radio occultation cannot measure the middle of the Martian day.

Now, Parrot et al. deepen our understanding of the Martian ionosphere using an approach called mutual radio occultation, in which the radio signal is sent not from an orbiter to Earth but between two Mars orbiters. As one orbiter rises or sets behind Mars from the other’s perspective, the signal passes through the ionosphere and refracts according to the ionosphere’s properties.

The researchers analyzed 71 mutual radio occultation measurements between two European Space Agency satellites orbiting Mars: Mars Express and the ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter. Thirty-five of these measurements were taken closer to midday than was ever previously achievable, in effect allowing scientists to see a new part of the Martian ionosphere.

The new data enabled the research team to calculate how the ionosphere’s electron density changes throughout the day. They were also able to learn more about how the altitudes of the upper and lower layers of the ionosphere—called M2 and M1, respectively—vary daily. The new data suggest that the peak electron density of the M2 layer changes less dramatically during the day than has been suggested by prior research. The data also show that the M1 does, indeed, still exist during the midday, contradicting previous assumptions.

The researchers also used the new data to calculate ionospheric temperatures. They found that instead of being hottest at midday, temperatures in the ionosphere rise as the Sun reaches Martian sunset. Simulations using a Mars climate model suggest that it is likely winds transporting air, rather than the Sun’s direct heat, that control these temperature dynamics. (Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JE008854, 2025)

—Sarah Stanley, Science Writer

Citation: Stanley, S. (2025), Orbiter pair expands view of Martian ionosphere, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250228. Published on 20 June 2025. Text © 2025. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

A Coral Core Archive Designed for Transparency and Accessibility

EOS - Fri, 06/20/2025 - 12:00

Coral reefs are vital ecosystems supporting marine life, ecotourism, and coastal protection. They also hold something valuable under their surface: records of the ocean’s past. Beneath the living outer layer of massive corals are dense, rocklike skeletal structures containing annual bands, similar to tree rings. Scientists can study the conditions at the time these bands formed by drilling, retrieving, and analyzing cores, some of which represent centuries of coral growth.

Daren Coker (left) and Thomas DeCarlo drill for a coral core in the Red Sea. Credit: Morgan Bennett-Smith

Since the 1970s, studies of coral cores to determine past growth patterns, a field known as coral sclerochronology, have produced notable scientific discoveries. Knutson et al. [1972] found that annual bands comprise alternating high- and low-density bands that reflect seasonal growth patterns. Hudson [1981] found that typically, high-density bands form during slower winter growth and low-density bands form during faster summer growth and that long-term coral growth variations are influenced by water quality and the effects of coastal development. Some cores also contain high-density “stress bands” formed because of coral bleaching events or other environmental challenges [Lough, 2008]. Together, this banding provides insights into coral growth history, enabling scientists to construct reliable age models of past oceanic and climatic conditions.

Today, methods used to investigate coral cores have advanced considerably. Alongside other methods such as stable isotope and elemental ratio analyses, computed tomography (CT) scanning plays a major role in yielding data that help to reveal coral growth parameters. Scientists can use 2D X-ray and 3D CT scanning to examine the internal structure of coral cores, including their annual density bands [Knutson et al., 1972; Hudson, 1981; Lough, 2008; DeCarlo et al., 2025]. In some cases, such analysis even involves a scientist visiting a local hospital to use its CT machine—an unexpected patient for the radiology technician.

This animation of a CT scan shows a cross section of a coral core. The small circles within the core are corallites, the individual skeletal structures formed by coral polyps. Credit: USGS, Public Domain A coral core sits on the exam table of a CT machine at a hospital before being scanned. Credit: Thomas DeCarlo

However, there has been no systematic archiving of coral core imagery data, partly because of the lack of a suitable repository. This gap presents risks of losing valuable images and prevents streamlined, transparent sharing of scientific interpretations from these images. Therefore, a centralized, virtual, open-access repository of coral core imagery is crucial for fostering transparent science and preserving these resources for future research.

An App for Organizing an Archive

The CoralCT application was developed to consolidate and organize coral core scans in a virtual repository that enables digital archiving and image analysis [DeCarlo et al., 2025]. The repository currently contains scans of more than 1,000 cores collected from a wide range of coral reef regions, including the Great Barrier Reef, the Caribbean, and the Red Sea. These core scans have been contributed by individuals and agencies, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and NOAA.

Coral researchers upload X-ray or CT scans to CoralCT and, when they are ready, can make their data publicly available to anyone with a computer and internet connection. This approach to transparency fosters collaborations among coral core researchers, who can view the app’s core directory and see who else has collected cores from their areas of interest. It also helps avoid unnecessary duplication of research efforts, which is especially important given the need to reduce sampling impacts on corals, many of which are endangered species.

Using the application’s analytical tools, observers can map annual density bands in coral cores to extract data on growth rates and skeletal density. As in tree ring studies, this sort of analysis offers insights into past environmental conditions because coral growth can respond sensitively to climate variability.

For example, Barkley et al. [2018] used CoralCT to visualize high-density stress bands and reconstruct the history of coral bleaching over 6 decades on a remote reef in the equatorial Pacific Ocean where monitoring data were sparse. Rodgers et al. [2021] measured annual growth rates in CoralCT to track the recovery of corals off Kaua‘i, Hawaii, in the 15 years after a damaging flood event. More recently, DeCarlo et al. [2024] leveraged the breadth of cores in CoralCT to reconstruct coral growth trends over recent decades to centuries across thousands of kilometers of the Indo-Pacific.

Rescuing Old Records and Gathering New Ones

Archiving valuable data that might otherwise be lost is a foundational purpose of CoralCT. A standout example of how it’s serving this purpose involves the rescue and digitization of X-ray images of more than 20 cores collected across the Pacific Ocean between the 1980s and early 2000s. The X-ray films, previously stored by a retiring scientist, are now archived and available for analysis on CoralCT.

Older collections like these can provide valuable insights into coral growth before environmental disturbances, such as mass bleaching from heat stress, began to affect them.

In a similar effort, USGS recently CT scanned coral cores dating back to the late 1960s, some of the earliest cores ever collected [Hudson et al., 1976]. These scans are being added to the repository so they can be reanalyzed by researchers now and into the future. Older collections like these can provide valuable insights into coral growth before environmental disturbances, such as mass bleaching from heat stress, began to affect them.

Alongside these historical contributions, CoralCT’s repository continues to grow with the addition of new data. One such recent contribution includes scans of reef cores collected from offshore Hawai‘i in 2023 during the International Ocean Discovery Program’s Expedition 389. Reef cores differ from coral cores in composition and structure but are also critical for understanding ocean history and environmental change. During Expedition 389, cores were collected from drowned reefs that once grew near the ocean surface but stopped calcifying as they were submerged in deeper water. These reef cores contain fragmented coral, coralline algae, microbialites, and other reef-building materials whose compositions enable scientists to look millennia into the past and uncover valuable records of sea level and climate change.

Repeatable Analyses, Verifiable Results

When raw, unprocessed coral core images are not archived, the value of growth measurements and other analyses is limited because other scientists cannot readily and independently verify them. This is problematic because science fundamentally relies on the ability to repeat experiments and verify results, especially considering individual researchers can introduce subjectivity and potential biases into even highly systematic and rigorous interpretations of data. As datasets grow larger, more intricate, and more numerous, maintaining transparency is increasingly important but also increasingly difficult.

In this screenshot of a coral core being analyzed in the CoralCT application, the orange lines on the core image indicate where an observer has mapped the annual density bands. Credit: Avi Strange

CoralCT addresses these challenges by ensuring that all information and context about a core is fully documented, accessible, and downloadable. This information includes essential metadata such as the core’s origin, ownership details, collection date, depth, and species identifications. Most important, CoralCT archives the user-defined maps of annual banding used to derive growth rate data [DeCarlo et al., 2025], ensuring that these data and interpretations are fully reproducible and open to verification by others.

This transparency is also shared among observers within the application. When a user is mapping the bands of a core, they can add notes and screenshots that other users can view when they’re analyzing that core. Furthermore, when a user finishes mapping the bands of a core and processes the data, this information is saved and made downloadable for other scientists to view. This ability enables scientists to conduct multiobserver studies, which can reduce potential biases introduced by individual observation.

A challenge encountered in our efforts to broaden CoralCT has been the hesitancy of some researchers and programs to share data.

Despite these advantages, a challenge encountered in our efforts to broaden CoralCT has been the hesitancy of some researchers and programs to share data because of concerns about intellectual property infringements and the “scooping” of prepublication data. This hesitancy, which is understandable considering the lack of transparency and protections for data owners in prior data management practices, can unfortunately limit scientific advancements and collaborations that might help address climate change, coral reef degradation, and other complex challenges.

To address these concerns, CoralCT offers privacy controls to core owners that they can use to restrict access to their scans and the derived output data. These controls are particularly useful when cores are part of ongoing research that has not yet been published or are subject to a postcruise moratorium, ensuring that sensitive data remain protected until the research is ready to be shared. In addition, each core is tagged with a data owner, acknowledgments, and relevant citations.

Advancing Accessibility and Collaboration

CoralCT also represents a path to making science more inclusive and accessible. The application is designed with an easy-to-use interface and includes resources such as video tutorials and a step-by-step user guide to help introduce its features to a wide audience. K–12 lesson plans that guide students through mapping coral core bands in the app were also recently created, offering approachable ways to explore marine science.

A middle school student visiting the Sclerochronology Lab at Tulane University uses a virtual reality headset to interact with coral cores in 3D during the university’s 2025 Boys at Tulane in STEM event. Credit: Danielle Scanlon Middle school students learn about coral cores from a hologram at a workshop at Hawai‘i Pacific University. Credit: Thomas DeCarlo

The app’s educational potential was demonstrated during recent outreach events. Using virtual reality technology, middle school students in New Orleans viewed 3D coral core scans from CoralCT and practiced identifying annual density bands. At a similar event, sixth grade students in Hawaii interacted with 3D holographic coral cores, learning how scientists retrieve and study them to understand growth patterns over time. The positive experiences of students and teachers during these events demonstrated how CoralCT provides an opportunity to engage hands-on with real scientific data.

Integration of AI could also, importantly, make it easier for all users to contribute to coral core analysis, regardless of their academic background or field experience.

Looking forward, there is potential to integrate artificial intelligence (AI) into CoralCT for automated identification of coral banding patterns. If an AI system were trained on existing human interpretations, it could automatically suggest band markings that users could review and verify. This advancement offers the potential for more accurate and efficient coral core analyses while maintaining human oversight. Integration of AI could also, importantly, make it easier for all users to contribute to coral core analysis, regardless of their academic background or field experience. Each new contribution or analysis of a core enhances the CoralCT database and extends our knowledge of coral reefs and past ocean conditions.

Coral sclerochronology is vital for understanding environmental changes in coral reef ecosystems and the impacts these changes have wrought. Through this research, we gain insights into the ocean’s past and advance our understanding of coral reefs today. As threats to reefs intensify, large open-access datasets are increasingly essential for monitoring reef health and predicting future impacts.

CoralCT thus plays an important role in preserving valuable records of coral growth and environmental history while promoting collaborative, accessible, and transparent data sharing. In making coral reef science available to researchers and the public alike, it is connecting data, ideas, and people to address critical questions about our changing world.

Acknowledgments

CoralCT was developed with support from National Science Foundation award OCE-2444864. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. government. We thank the IODP 389 Expedition Science Party, ECORD Science Operator (ESO) support staff, benthic drilling team, MMA surveyors, and the captain and crew of the MMA Valour. International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 389 was supported by funding from the various national funding agencies of the participating IODP countries. We also thank all data contributors to date, including Giulia Braz, Jessica Carilli, Leticia Cavole, Ben Chomitz, Travis Courtney, Ian Enochs, Thomas Felis, Ke Lin, Malcolm McCulloch, Haojia Ren, Riccardo Rodolfo-Metalpa, Natan Pereira, and the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Hazards Resources Program.

References

Barkley, H. C., et al. (2018), Repeat bleaching of a central Pacific coral reef over the past six decades (1960–2016), Commun. Biol., 1, 177, https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-018-0183-7.

DeCarlo, T. M., et al. (2024), Calcification trends in long-lived corals across the Indo-Pacific during the industrial era, Commun. Earth Environ., 5, 756, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01904-8.

DeCarlo, T. M., et al. (2025), CoralCT: A platform for transparent and collaborative analyses of growth parameters in coral skeletal cores, Limnol. Oceanogr. Methods, 23(2), 97–116, https://doi.org/10.1002/lom3.10661.

Hudson, J. H. (1981), Growth rates in Montastraea annularis: A record of environmental change in Key Largo Coral Reef Marine Sanctuary, Florida, Bull. Mar. Sci., 31(2), 444–459, www.ingentaconnect.com/content/umrsmas/bullmar/1981/00000031/00000002/art00014.

Hudson, J. H., et al. (1976), Sclerochronology: A tool for interpreting past environments, Geology, 4(6), 361–364, https://doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(1976)4<361:SATFIP>2.0.CO;2.

Knutson, D. W., et al. (1972), Coral chronometers: Seasonal growth bands in reef corals, Science, 177(4045), 270–272, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.177.4045.270.

Lough, J. M. (2008), Coral calcification from skeletal records revisited, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser., 373, 257–264, https://doi.org/10.3354/meps07398.

Rodgers, K. S., et al. (2021), Rebounds, regresses, and recovery: A 15-year study of the coral reef community at Pila‘a, Kaua‘i after decades of natural and anthropogenic stress events, Mar. Pollut. Bull., 171, 112306, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2021.112306.

Author Information

Avi Strange and Oliwia Jasnos, Tulane University, New Orleans, La.; Lauren T. Toth, St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Fla.; Nancy G. Prouty, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Santa Cruz, Calif.; and Thomas M. DeCarlo (tdecarlo@tulane.edu), Tulane University, New Orleans, La.

Citation: Strange, A., O. Jasnos, L. T. Toth, N. G. Prouty, and T. M. DeCarlo (2025), A coral core archive designed for transparency and accessibility, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250226. Published on 20 June 2025. Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Amplification of Laguerre-Gaussian laser pulses in plasma by copropagating Gaussian pulses

Physical Review E (Plasma physics) - Fri, 06/20/2025 - 10:00

Author(s): Guoqing Yang, Min Chen, Xiaobo Zhang, Huanyu Song, Suming Weng, Ping Li, Tongpu Yu, and Zhengming Sheng

Laguerre-Gaussian (LG) laser beams have many interesting applications due to their unique field structure. However, the generation of intense LG beams remains challenging because of the limited damage threshold of intensity for optical elements used for the conversion from normal Gaussian beams to L…


[Phys. Rev. E 111, 065211] Published Fri Jun 20, 2025

Lagrangian approach to reconnection and topology change

Physical Review E (Plasma physics) - Fri, 06/20/2025 - 10:00

Author(s): Amir Jafari

We employ well-known concepts from statistical physics, quantum field theories, and general topology to study magnetic reconnection and topology change and their connection in incompressible flows in the context of an effective field theory without appealing to magnetic field lines. We consider the …


[Phys. Rev. E 111, 065212] Published Fri Jun 20, 2025

Eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of Landau damping oscillations in very weakly collisional plasma

Physical Review E (Plasma physics) - Fri, 06/20/2025 - 10:00

Author(s): Evgeny V. Polyachenko and Ilia G. Shukhman

Landau-damped oscillations in collisionless plasmas, described by van Kampen and Case, are quasimodes, representing a continuous superposition of singular eigenfunctions, not true eigenmodes. Recent work by Ng et al. shows that even rare collisions replace these singular modes with discrete regular …


[Phys. Rev. E 111, 065213] Published Fri Jun 20, 2025

Forecasting induced seismicity in enhanced geothermal systems using machine learning: challenges and opportunities

Geophysical Journal International - Fri, 06/20/2025 - 00:00
SUMMARYInduced seismicity poses a significant challenge to the safe and sustainable development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS). This study explores the application of machine learning (ML) for forecasting cumulative seismic moment (CSM) of induced seismic events to evaluate reservoir stability in response to fluid injections. Using data from the Cooper Basin (Australia), the St1 Helsinki geothermal project (Finland), and a controlled laboratory injection experiment, we evaluate ML models that integrate catalog and operational features with various frameworks. Results indicate that feature-rich models outperform simpler ones in complex seismic environments like the Cooper Basin and laboratory cases, where seismicity is promoted by earthquake interaction and fault reactivation. However, in scenarios like St1 Helsinki, with minimal event clustering, additional features offer limited predictive benefits. While ML models are promising, several challenges impede reliable forecasting, including data scarcity from operational wells, the extrapolation demands of cumulative output (i.e. CSM), and the difficulty of predicting abrupt CSM increases for large seismic events. Enhancing model robustness requires synthetic data augmentation and improved feature selection capable of capturing diverse reservoir dynamics. These advancements may enable more accurate near real-time forecasts of problematic induced seismic events, informing operational decisions to mitigate seismic risks while maximizing energy extraction, and hence offering a pathway for broader adoption of ML in renewable energy development and management.

Marine snow provides new clues about the export of carbon to the deep sea

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 06/19/2025 - 18:23
As Earth's largest carbon reservoir, the ocean locks carbon away from the atmosphere. However, scientists still struggle to measure and monitor exactly how much carbon is stored in the ocean, hindering efforts to model and respond to our changing climate.

Ocean 'greening' at poles could spell changes for fisheries

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 06/19/2025 - 18:00
Ocean waters are getting greener at the poles and bluer toward the equator, according to an analysis of satellite data published in Science on June 19.

North Atlantic heat content may be key to predicting Europe's hot summers

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 06/19/2025 - 17:20
In Europe, people are increasingly exposed to extreme heat events—with serious consequences for human health, ecosystems, and agriculture. Researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology have developed and tested a method that can be used to improve the prediction of European hot summers up to a few years in advance.

Harmful algal blooms: How climate change will affect their frequency along coasts

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 06/19/2025 - 17:18
Algae in the ocean can pose a significant risk to humans, marine life, and the seafood industry. Under favorable conditions for algae growth, certain algae species can multiply rapidly, a phenomenon known as algal blooms. Although algae always release small amounts of toxins, a massive increase in algae numbers leads to a high concentration of toxins in the water. These toxins can accumulate in marine organisms, such as mussels.

New start date for the Anthropocene proposed: When humans first changed global methane levels

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 06/19/2025 - 17:00
Humans have been reshaping the environment for at least 10,000 years. But the Anthropocene is the name given to the specific period of Earth history during which humans have had a global effect on the planet's climate and ecosystems. Despite formal rejection as a geological epoch, it's widely understood within academic research as useful shorthand for the age of human interference in the Earth system.

Rapid cloud loss is contributing to record-breaking temperatures, new study shows

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 06/19/2025 - 15:42
Earth's cloud cover is rapidly shrinking and contributing to record-breaking temperatures, according to new research involving the Monash-led Australian Research Council Center of Excellence for 21st Century Weather.

Alps could face a doubling in torrential summer rainfall frequency as temperatures rise by 2°C

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 06/19/2025 - 12:27
Intense, short-lived summer downpours are expected to become both more frequent and more intense across Alpine regions as the climate warms. In a new study, scientists from the University of Lausanne (UNIL) and the University of Padova analyzed data from nearly 300 mountain weather stations and found that a 2°C rise in regional temperature could double the frequency of these extreme events.

Peatlands across the Arctic are expanding as the climate warms, research shows

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 06/19/2025 - 09:00
Scientists used satellite data, drones and on-the-ground observations to assess the edges of existing peatlands (waterlogged ecosystems that store vast amounts of carbon). The study—led by the University of Exeter—found peatlands in the European and Canadian Arctic have expanded outwards in the last 40 years.

The 15 June 2025 landslide at Zhonghe in western Guangdong province, China

EOS - Thu, 06/19/2025 - 05:40

A community in China had a narrow escape when a landslide, triggered by Typhoon Wutip, occurred on the slopes above the village. Fortunately, the population had been evacuated when a local woman noted signs that a failure might be imminent.

At about 4 am on 15 June 2025, rainfall associated with the remnants of Typhoon Wutip triggered a landslide at Zhonghe village in western Guangdong province in China. At present I am unable to give a precise location for this event, which is listed in the Chinese media as having occurred at Lian’er Natural Village, Zhonghe village, located in Guizi Town, Xinyi City, Maoming. Guizi town is located at [22.6397, 111.1113], so it is in this general area.

China Daily has a photographic feature on this landslide, which includes this image:-

The 15 June 2025 landslide at Zhonghe village in western Guangdong province, China. Image via China Daily.

There is also a view from the crown of the failure looking along the landslide track:-

View from the crown of the 15 June 2025 landslide at Zhonghe village in western Guangdong province, China. Image via China Daily.

This failure affected 25 households and 57 people, but all were evacuated in the hours prior to the event (see below). The landslide itself appears to have been a large, shallow failure that has channelised before striking the village. Note also at least two other shallow failures in the same area – these landslides are characteristic of landslides triggered by very high rainfall intensities that drive saturation and a loss of suction forces.

It is fortunate that the material involved in the failure was comparatively fine-grained, which has meant that the damage to the village appears to be modest. XKB has this image of the aftermath of the landslide:-

The aftermath of the 15 June 2025 landslide at Zhonghe village in western Guangdong province, China. Image via XKB.

There is an article in nfnews (in Mandarin) that describes the sequence of events that led to the evacuation of the community. The key person is Liu Mingfang, a member of the Zhonghe Village Committee. This is a description of the events (using Google Translate):-

In the rain, her vision was blurred, and Liu Mingfang used a flashlight to patrol along the muddy village road. At 0:42 on the 15th, she suddenly discovered: “Why is this water yellow and muddy, and it still carries sediment?”

Red flags! She immediately dialed the phone number of Cao Musheng, the village party secretary: “Secretary, there is an abnormality in the water, something may happen!” ”

In less than 5 minutes, Liu Chunhua and Cao Musheng, deputy mayors of the village, arrived at the scene. After research and judgment, Liu Chunhua decisively reported to the town’s three prevention offices and received instructions: transfer immediately!

At 0:58, a total of 10 village cadres and village cadres rushed from all directions to the entrance of Lian’er Natural Village. Immediately afterwards, the sound of gongs, knocks on the door, and shouts instantly tore apart the rainy night.

The entire community was relocated before the slope failed.

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2023. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Simultaneous Bayesian estimation of multi-segment fault geometry and complex slip distribution: application to the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake

Geophysical Journal International - Thu, 06/19/2025 - 00:00
SummaryFor the inversion of crustal deformation data, where both the fault geometry and slip distribution need to be estimated, attempts have been made to estimate them simultaneously within the framework of Bayesian inference. In these methods, an analytic expression for the posterior distribution of the parameters cannot be obtained depending on the settings of the probability distribution. The Monte Carlo method is often used to approximate the probability distribution by several samples. However, Monte Carlo sampling becomes computationally expensive as the dimensionality of the parameters increases, making it challenging to apply these methods to inverse analyses targeting large-scale earthquakes with complex rupture patterns, where the parameters to be estimated are high-dimensional. In this study, we developed an efficient algorithm for the simultaneous Bayesian estimation of fault geometry and slip distribution that is robust against high-dimensional parameters, facilitating the estimation of multi-segment fault geometry and complex slip distribution. When comparing the developed method with a conventional method in a numerical experiment where the parameters were high dimensional, it was confirmed that the accuracy and convergence of the estimation results were improved while reducing computational costs. As an application example of the developed method, we estimated fault geometry and slip distribution from the crustal deformation observed during the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake, considering models with one-, two-, and three-fault segments. By comparing the results, we demonstrated that the three-segment model is the most plausible, emphasising the importance of improving the estimation methods to accurately estimate multi-segment fault geometry with a complex slip distribution.

Submarine volcanic features inferred from magnetic and gravity anomalies off Kume Island, mid-Okinawa Trough

Geophysical Journal International - Thu, 06/19/2025 - 00:00
SummaryThe characterization of submarine volcanism associated with extension along continental margins is essential for understanding the evolution of rifting basins. In the Okinawa Trough, between the Eurasian continent and the Ryukyu Arc, submarine volcanism remains poorly understood. Here, we conducted detailed magnetic and gravity surveys aboard research vessels off Kume Island in the mid-Okinawa Trough to clarify the distribution of different types of submarine volcanic activities. Equivalent magnetization intensities were estimated from observed magnetic anomalies, and Bouguer gravity anomalies, calculated from the obtained free-air gravity anomalies, were used to estimate crustal thickness. Differences in crustal equivalent magnetization, Bouguer gravity anomaly, and crustal thickness among bathymetric highs allowed us to identify four distinct groups of submarine volcanic edifices reflecting the evolution of rifting. Edifices of Group 1 are affected by basaltic magma intrusions associated with back-arc extension. Those of Group 2 have moderate equivalent magnetizations and Bouguer gravity anomalies compared to other edifices in the study area; the equivalent magnetization intensity in this group is comparable to the average intensity of the oceanic lithosphere. Edifices of Group 3 may have been affected by additional, voluminous magma supplies from active island arc magma sources. Finally, those of Group 4 are characterized by fewer basaltic intrusions compared to other groups and a lower degree of crustal thinning associated with back-arc extension. Moreover, the faults and fractures formed during the development of the Kerama Gap may have affected volcanism in our study area.

Impact of the intensity assessment on the macroseismic parameters of earthquakes in Italy

Geophysical Journal International - Thu, 06/19/2025 - 00:00
AbstractMacroseismic intensity classifies the ground shaking at a locality by comparing the observed effects on humans and buildings with the scenarios characterising each intensity degree according to a macroseismic scale. This practice may involve uncertainty in assessing intensity degree due to several factors. These uncertainties propagate to subsequent elaborations, such as the parameters of pre-instrumental earthquakes determined from macroseismic data. In Italy, more than 60 per cent of the earthquakes in CPTI15, the Italian Parametric Earthquake Catalogue covering the period 1000–2020, rely on intensity data collected in DBMI15, the Italian Macroseismic Database. Their parameters are estimated with the ‘Boxer’ software, which determines the location and magnitude starting from their macroseismic intensity distributions. In this work, we explore the potential impact of possible inaccurate intensity assessments at a single site on macroseismic parameters (i.e. locations and magnitudes) of Italian earthquakes. We select 1108 earthquakes with at least 10 intensity data points from CPTI15 that occurred in the period 1279–2020. For each event, we simulate more than 100 sets of intensity distributions, for a total of 138.327 simulations, by varying the intensities at the sites of ± 1 with a half-degree step starting from the intensity of DBMI15. Each simulated distribution is then parameterised using the same approach adopted by CPTI15 (i.e. Boxer), and the results are compared with the macroseismic epicentre and magnitude of CPTI15. The resulting parameters from all the simulated distributions are coherent with those provided by CPTI15. Locations estimates are within 5 km from CPTI15’s for 55 per cent of the cases, and within 10 km for 83 per cent. The magnitudes of 68 per cent of simulations are within ± 0.2 units of difference from the CPTI15 magnitudes and 87 per cent within ± 0.3 units, similar to the statistical error of instrumental magnitude estimation. Moreover, we treat uncertain intensity values (i.e. 6–7) as equally representative of either the lowest intensity level (i.e. 6–7 as 6) and the highest intensity level (i.e. 6–7 as 7), and we analyse their impact on the parameters. The differences with the CPTI15 magnitude are not significant for either analysis, with more than 97.7 per cent of the earthquakes falling within ± 0.3 units of difference.

Global carbon emissions on track to exhaust 1.5°C budget in three years, study warns

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 06/18/2025 - 23:00
The central estimate of the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C is 130 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) (from the beginning of 2025). This would be exhausted in a little more than three years at current levels of CO2 emissions, according to the latest Indicators of Global Climate Change study published in the journal Earth System Science Data, and the budget for 1.6°C or 1.7°C could be exceeded within nine years.

Evidence of a possible ghost plume beneath Oman

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 06/18/2025 - 19:09
An international team of geoscientists, chemists and climate scientists, has found evidence of a possible ghost plume beneath the territory of Oman. In their paper published in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters, the group describes the different types of evidence for the plume they found and what it could mean for the study of plate tectonics.

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