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Noncooperative game of spacecraft swarm under multi-source disturbances: a deep neural network implementation based on model predictive control

Publication date: 1 March 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 5

Author(s): Jianlin Chen, Lei Liu, Yang Xu, Yang Yu

Autonomous SOCP–MPC for space debris pre-capture rendezvous and pointing

Publication date: 1 March 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 5

Author(s): Dapeng Lian, Haoyu Wang, Ruiqi Yang, Guowei Zhao

Precise orbit determination for TOPEX/Poseidon, Jasons 1,2,3 and Sentinel-6A and the std2400 series of orbits

Publication date: 1 March 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 5

Author(s): F.G. Lemoine, N.P. Zelensky, B.D. Beckley, G.T. Mitchum, X. Yang, J.B. Nicholas

Robust finite-time control approach for spacecraft rendezvous and formation reconfiguration in Earth orbits

Publication date: 1 March 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 5

Author(s): Vicente Angel Obama Biyogo Nchama, Peng Shi

Advanced remote sensing techniques for mapping lithological units and radioactive alteration in the southern eastern desert, Egypt: petrological and radiological hazards determination

Publication date: 1 March 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 5

Author(s): El Saeed R. Lasheen, Hatem E. Semary, Samir Z. Kamh, Gehad M. Saleh

Disruption and vulnerability of forest ecosystems and green spaces under the impact of typhoons Yagi and Wipha: A case study in Nghe An province, Vietnam

Publication date: 1 March 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 5

Author(s): Anh Ngoc Thi Do, Tuyet Anh Thi Do

Data-driven structure optimization for enhanced hypervelocity in three-stage gas gun

Publication date: 1 March 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 5

Author(s): Xiaolong Xin, Ruizhi Zhang, Chengcheng Guo, Zhiguo Li, Qiguang He, Jian Zhang, Qiang Shen, Guoqiang Luo

Short-term impact risk of debris cloud accounting for atmospheric drag perturbations

Publication date: 1 March 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 5

Author(s): Tao Li, Leisheng Ren, Yi Li

Sun sets on the Sunlight glacier: Researchers document melting of Wyoming glacier

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 03/02/2026 - 19:00
The glacier located near Sunlight Peak, Wyo., has been its icy self since the Yellowstone region's last major glaciation occurred some 20,000 years ago. The bulk of Sunlight's ice has remained ensconced in its northern Rocky Mountain keep for many thousands of years. But that is now changing, according to research from scientists at Washington University in St. Louis.

Vancouver built up fast—but now its older towers face an earthquake reckoning

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 03/02/2026 - 15:00
In 1957, Vancouver took a decisive turn in its urban development when city council lifted the eight-story height limit in the West End neighborhood on the downtown peninsula, opening the door to high-rise living along English Bay. Over the next two decades, more than 300 mid- to high-rise concrete apartment buildings went up, some rising beyond 30 stories.

Salt of the Earth: Vast Underground Salt Caverns Are Preserving Our History—and Just Might Power Our Future

EOS - Mon, 03/02/2026 - 14:09
Ionic Compounds: Worth Their Salt? Salt of the Earth: Vast Underground Salt Caverns Are Preserving Our History—and Just Might Power Our Future How the Rise of a Salty Blob Led to the Fall of the Last Ice Age Insights for Making Quick Clay Landslides Less Quick Snowball Earth’s Liquid Seas Dipped Way Below Freezing Episodic Tales of Salt What Salty Water Means for Wild Horses

In spring 2025, torrential rains fell on central Romania’s Harghita County in Transylvania, causing the waters of the Corund River to flood its banks. Speaking to reporters at a press conference in early May, county prefect Petres Sandor estimated that the river, which winds through towns nestled in the foothills of the Carpathian Mountains, had swelled to more than a hundred times its normal flow.

The river had also begun to seep into the Praid salt mine, home to one of the largest salt reserves in Europe and the economic lifeblood of surrounding communities.

In the weeks that followed, access to the Praid mine was suspended, staff and nearby households were evacuated, and the underground dams built in haste to stave off flooding collapsed. Officials made efforts to redirect the river and save the mine, but the damage had been done: By July, the flooded mine was forced to close indefinitely.

Transylvania’s Praid salt mine was one of the region’s most popular tourist destinations, attracting half a million visitors annually.

Romans were the first to mine for salt at Praid beginning around the 2nd century CE. When the area was under Hapsburg rule in the mid-1700s, larger-scale extraction began, and it continued until the mine’s recent closure, producing up to 100,000 metric tons of salt per year at its peak.

But in the modern era, Praid was not only an operational salt mine. It was also one of the region’s most popular tourist destinations, attracting half a million visitors a year to repurposed caverns that housed—nearly 122 meters (400 feet) belowground—a medical center; an Orthodox church; a movie theater; a museum; and an adventure park featuring arcades, zip lines, and a planetarium.

Before it flooded in spring 2025, Romania’s Praid salt mine was a hugely popular tourist destination that housed amenities including a planetarium, a movie theater, a medical center, and an Orthodox church. Credit: Thomas Hackl/Flickr, CC BY-NC 2.0

There are two main categories of caverns formed via salt extraction, and both possess unique properties. These include pure, dry air, very low permeability, and—given the right conditions—structural stability. Some caverns, like Praid, are by-products of rock salt mining that began millennia ago and continues today. Others have been intentionally created for storage purposes, with the by-product being the salt.

Around the world, these properties have made salt caverns ideal for storing anything from archival film footage to the United States’ Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Other uses are on the horizon. As the global community grapples with the need to alter its energy habits in the face of climate change, it may be that at least one clean energy solution lies right beneath our feet.

Old Salt

Between 10,000 and 12,000 years ago, humans began cultivating crops and domesticating animals. As diets changed for both humans and their livestock, the need for large quantities of salt grew.

“Previously, with hunter-fisher-gatherers, salt came into the diet mostly through meat, nuts, and small fruits,” said E. Cory Sills, associate professor of geography at the University of Texas at Tyler. “But with a move to more carbohydrate-based diets, salt needed to be found and manufactured.”

And once the use of salt as a food preservative became widespread, an industry was born, with efforts to find and mine the mineral cropping up across Asia, Central America, and Europe.

The world’s oldest salt mine is said to be Hallstatt, near the Austrian village of the same name (meaning “salt town”). In fact, Neolithic peoples likely settled at Hallstatt, located in a high Alpine valley, thanks to the presence of salt, as most communities at that time opted for the fertile plains.

Artifacts uncovered at Hallstatt include a deer antler pickaxe that dates to 5000 BCE.

Artifacts uncovered at Hallstatt include a deer antler pickax that dates to what were perhaps the earliest salt extraction efforts, around 5000 BCE, as well as textiles, human remains, and the oldest known wooden staircase in Europe. Researchers date the start of organized salt mining in the region to around 1500 BCE, and the activity contributed to the wealth of the community for more than a thousand years. Findings at Hallstatt reveal the progression of early mining activity, which by 400 BCE included tunnels more than 198 meters (650 feet) deep.

Salt mining operations in Europe developed further during the Middle Ages, particularly in western Poland and what is now Romania. Centuries later, as nations industrialized, technology helped miners dig deeper and identify where to drill. “Due to modern technology since World War II, geophysical equipment like ground-penetrating radar can look into the Earth and detect salt domes,” said Sills.

Some mines, like Hallstatt, have continued to produce salt. In both active and discontinued mines, the process of hewing away at walls of the mineral over the course of millennia, centuries, or mere decades has resulted in enormous underground caverns that, as it turns out, have some savory benefits.

We’re Not on the Surface of Kansas Anymore

“We will store anything that’s not illegal, flammable, or explosive.”

Nearly 200 meters (650 feet) below the grassland near Hutchinson, Kan., 20 hectares (50 acres) of hollowed-out salt caverns store government records, private assets, beloved film reels and movie props, and much more.

“We will store anything that’s not illegal, flammable, or explosive,” said Jeff Ollenburger, president of Underground Vaults & Storage (UV&S), which has operated a storage facility in the Hutchinson salt mine since 1959. At the company’s inception, the space was primarily used to store oil and gas records. Today its storage possibilities are limited only by the dimensions of its elevator—approximately 2.5 × 1.3 meters (8 × 4 feet).

UV&S has operated a storage facility in the Hutchinson salt mine since 1959. The company transports items including film reels, movie props, and government records down into its storage bays via its elevator, which measures about 2.5 × 1.3 meters (8 × 4 feet). Credit: Courtesy of UV&S

The Hutchinson mine, along with its companion museum, Strataca—which exhibits movie paraphernalia such as a shirt worn by James Dean in Giant, costumes from The Matrix, and props from Men in Black—is perhaps the United States’ most well known example of a rock salt mine living a second life.

But salt mines in Europe and other parts of the world have also carved out alternate existences.

Like Praid, the Wieliczka salt mine in Poland is a major tourist destination, though traditional mining operations there have largely ceased. Among the attractions for its more than 1 million visitors each year are a saline lake, elaborate salt sculptures and friezes, banquet halls, and entire chapels carved into the rock—much of it lit by multitiered salt-crystal chandeliers.

Salt caverns around the world have been repurposed in a variety of ways. Colombia’s Salt Cathedral exists in a former salt mine in Zipaquirá about 180 meters (600 feet) underground. Credit: Bernard Gagnon/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

Other tourist destinations include Colombia’s Salt Cathedral of Zipaquirá and Romania’s Turda salt mine, once used as an air raid shelter and for cheese storage and now a theme park complete with a Ferris wheel and an amphitheater.

Among its many materials, DeepStore, in England’s Winsford salt mine, holds the fashion archive of Laura Ashley, including hand-painted wallpaper, clothing, and other items spanning the company’s 70-year history. With his Memory of Mankind project, Austrian artist Martin Kunze aims to save modern human heritage from potential oblivion by transferring the accumulated digital record onto ceramic tablets to be stashed for safekeeping at Hallstatt.

Salt mines have been used as both storage sites for radioactive waste and—as with Praid—medical centers and health spas that tout the underground environment’s alleged therapeutic properties, including air that helps to absorb bodily toxins. In Belarus, the National Speleotherapy Clinic makes use of underground salt caverns, claiming to provide relief for patients with respiratory ailments and allergic diseases.

During World War II, Nazis stashed looted valuables in salt mines like Austria’s Altaussee, as the mines were protected from allied bombs and inclement weather. Thousands of paintings and artifacts were eventually recovered from these sites by an international group of curators and historians known as the Monuments Men.

A decade later and an ocean away, an American veteran of the same war was one of several local business leaders seeking a safe place to store physical records in Hutchinson, according to Ollenburger of UV&S. The veteran recalled the recovery of artifacts from salt mines in Europe and suggested using caverns from the local mine, which had been operating since the 1920s, for storage.

The mine is located within a salt deposit known as the Hutchinson Salt Member, which covers more than 95,000 square kilometers (37,000 square miles) at depths of between 152 and 305 meters (500–1,000 feet). It was once believed that the salt in this region was found in isolated pockets, said Ollenburger. But drilling and modern technology revealed the true extent of the deposit, which was formed around 275 million years ago, when shallow seas evaporated under the extremely dry, hot conditions of the Permian (~298.9–252 million years ago).

The Hutchinson Salt Company, owner of the mine in which UV&S operates, extracts rock salt that is primarily used for deicing roads in winter. This form of mining leaves behind large cavities that are ideal for storage, with natural temperatures of around 20°C (68°F) and 45% humidity. UV&S currently occupies 50 of approximately 900 available acres, with individual storage bays that are each about the size of a football field.

And the Hutchinson Salt Company is still mining, Ollenburger said. “We will never run out of space.”

Because Hutchinson was developed as a rock salt mine only within the past century, its planners selected the location in part to avoid a fate like Praid’s.

Elsewhere in the United States, salt mines may contend with differing levels of humidity, moisture, and temperature, Ollenburger said. “We just do not” face such issues, Ollenburger said, “because of the geology above us.”

The Hutchinson mine, Ollenburger said, is incredibly stable. “It’s a very inert, safe environment to be in,” he said. “And it’s very elastic. We’ve had small earthquakes from time to time in the region, and the whole salt cavity kind of moves together.”

The same properties that make salt caverns ideal for preserving archival documents and film reels also lend themselves to storing an entirely different kind of treasure: the resources that fuel the world.

A Subterranean Solution

In 1888, the modern practice of solution mining began in New York, and several years later it was put into use in China. Canada took up the practice in the mid-20th century, and it’s now a widespread method of salt production. Solution mining involves drilling a well into a deposit, pumping freshwater through it to dissolve the salt, and then removing the resulting brine. Salt’s low permeability and porosity, combined with a natural plasticity that enables self-healing of fractures, means the resulting cavern is airtight and watertight.

Solution mining is still practiced in parts of the Hutchinson deposit today. The brine might be used in chemical processes or mineral production. Or it might be disposed of.

That’s because a number of the caverns created by solution mining—and their storage possibilities—have themselves become the purpose of the practice.

When it comes to energy storage, salt caverns are fairly agnostic. In the United States, caverns along the Texas and Louisiana coastlines are used to store the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the form of 402 million barrels of crude oil. Elsewhere in the United States, as well as in Europe and China, salt caverns are reservoirs for natural gas. Because hydrocarbons like oil can accumulate around salt domes, caverns are also manufactured to store waste from nearby oil fields.

But applications for salt caverns that target more sustainable energy sources are also being put into practice.

Near the city of Changzhou in China’s Yangtze River Delta, development of what will be the world’s largest compressed air energy storage (CAES) facility has been underway since 2022. CAES optimizes existing sustainable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, by using the energy captured during higher production phases (i.e., periods of high sunlight or strong wind) to compress air. That air is then injected into a storage facility. When demand for energy peaks or when solar and wind production is low, energy generated by releasing the compressed air through turbines can fill the gaps.

Compressed air energy storage (CAES) facilities, such as this Hydrostor facility, store energy generated by wind and solar power in the form of compressed air, sometimes storing it in underground caverns. Credit: Hydrostor

CAES is a cleaner energy alternative that can contribute to power grid stability in part because of its capacity for longer-term energy storage relative to battery-based systems. And one key to the technology’s success lies in resilient, leakproof salt caverns.

The CAES facility in Changzhou, known as the Jintan Salt Cave CAES Project, entered its second phase in early 2025. The salt cavern facility, created using solution mining, is expected to have an annual output of approximately 924 gigawatt-hours of energy per year. In the United States, this would power around 84,000 homes per day.

Another CAES project, Nengchu-1 in the central Chinese province of Hubei, began operations in January 2025 and will have an output of around 319 gigawatt-hours of energy annually. Unlike Jintan, Nengchu-1 repurposes the existing caverns of an abandoned underground salt mine.

Though salt caverns meet the strict geological requirements of CAES facilities, more widespread use of the technology faces other hurdles. In addition to site limitations and the high cost of development, CAES poses safety risks including combustion and fire.

A Home for Hydrogen

Salt caverns are also ideal for storing hydrogen, another clean energy alternative. Like CAES, hydrogen energy solutions leverage solar and wind power and the favorable properties of salt caverns. During highly windy or sunny periods, energy generated by wind turbines or solar grids can be used to split water into hydrogen and oxygen. The hydrogen can then be stored in salt caverns and converted back to electricity during peak demand hours.

Not all caverns are created equal.

But not all caverns are created equal.

Solution mining in a salt dome creates cylindrical caverns ideal for storing and later delivering gaseous hydrogen, which can be used to supplement energy supplies when demand is high.

Unlike a salt dome, which is formed by salt tectonics and gravity and has a more vertical structure and homogenous composition, a salt bed like Hutchinson is characterized by horizontal layers of varying solubility and strength. Here, solution mining operations can be subject to geological constraints, explained Tingwei “Lucy” Ko, research assistant professor with the Bureau of Economic Geology at the University of Texas at Austin. Until drilling begins, no one knows how much the composition of a salt bed may vary, or where its weak layers are located. That variability, said Ko, “can cause a cavern to collapse.”

As with caverns used for storing other hydrocarbon reserves—such as those along the Gulf Coast of the United States—these reservoirs targeted for greener energy are created for storage purposes, and the resulting brine may wind up in leach ponds or saline aquifers, a practice that comes with its own environmental cost.

In fact, balancing the costs and benefits of hydrogen storage requires consideration of multiple factors, including safety. Hydrogen is highly flammable and must be stored under very high pressure, bringing the risk of combustion. Frequency of access is also a concern.

“If you use hydrogen as a fuel and you need to withdraw and inject the gas frequently, that could compromise geochemical properties,” Ko said.

Still, the benefits could be significant when it comes to cultivating a decarbonized and stable energy supply.

“With solar and wind, there’s a lot of curtailment, a lot of wasted energy and not enough capacity,” said Ko. “Geologic storage is a pretty great option.”

In some regions, including Utah, seen here, solution mining in salt domes leaves behind caverns that are used to store hydrogen. Credit: Archaeopoda/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0

Currently, there are only a handful of locations globally where salt cavern hydrogen storage has been put into practice, including the Gulf Coast, Texas, Utah, and the United Kingdom and Germany. All are areas where extensive salt domes are present. Which brings another issue to the surface: geology itself.

“Salt is not everywhere,” said Ko. “And it’s not always in the same place as wind turbines.”

Mining the Future

Without its economic lifeline, the town of Praid is looking to lure visitors with new experiences that take advantage of the region’s outdoor, gastronomic, and wellness offerings.

Like other incidents that came before it, the Praid flooding showed that there’s still much to learn about mitigating disaster in salt mines. And while technology is easing the way toward more widely spread energy storage in salt caverns, there remain enormous—and costly—challenges to overcome.

For Ollenburger, the future of salt cavern storage is filled with possibility.

“We’re finding new ways to offer storage to clients who might need different things,” he said. UV&S has built refrigerated storage panels for film industry clients who require their materials to remain at even lower temperature and humidity levels. The company has also discussed using the space for data centers, a need that will only increase with the rapid growth and development of artificial intelligence.

“What we have is an immense amount of space,” Ollenburger said, “and we’re trying to figure out how best to use it.”

—Korena Di Roma Howley (@korenahowley), Science Writer

Citation: Howley, K. D. R. (2026), Salt of the earth: Vast underground salt caverns are preserving our history—and just might power our future, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260025. Published on 2 March 2026. Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Tectonic Modifications Shape Surface Environment and Landscape

EOS - Mon, 03/02/2026 - 14:00
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: AGU Advances

The study of tectonic modifications is essential to understand how Earth’s surface changes over time, shaping mountains, oceans, and continents. It is also crucial for predicting natural hazards like earthquakes and volcanoes. The lithosphere of cratons – ancient and stable continental regions – carry a long history of tectonic modifications that are revealed by increasingly available Earth observations.

Yang et al. [2026] use ambient noise tomography to reveal deep (about 60 kilometers) seismic low velocity anomalies beneath the Illinois and Michigan basins. These perturbations are attributed to lithospheric modifications leading to an uplift of the terrestrial crust of about 3.5 kilometers in the late Paleozoic to the early Mesozoic. The findings present links between geodynamic drivers and geological records and offer implication to improve our understanding of how deep Earth processes shape the surface environment and therefore landscape evolution.

Citation: Yang, X., Peng, L., Stevens Goddard, A., & Liu, L. (2026). Lithospheric delamination below the North American midcontinent ceased subsidence in cratonic basins. AGU Advances, 7, e2025AV002051. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV002051

—Alberto Montanari, Editor-in-Chief, AGU Advances

Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

A dramatic rockfall on the E134 road at Fjæra in Etne, Norway

EOS - Mon, 03/02/2026 - 08:04

An occupied vehicle was crushed, but the person in the car escaped unhurt.

On 1 March 2026, a very dramatic rockfall occurred in Fjæra in Etne in Vestland county, Norway. The rockfall, which originated on a steep rock slope on the flanks of Åkrafjorden, did not kill anyone, but it crushed a pick-up truck (see below). This event is a near-miss in terms of fatalities.

The rockfall was captured on video from the other side of the fjord. This has been posted to media sites and to Reddit:-

Rockfall in Norway crushing a road, a car, and then some
byu/SjalabaisWoWS inWTF

The aftermath was captured in a photo that has been released by the owner of the vehicle, Frode Mæland:-

The aftermath of the 1 March 2026 rockfall Fjæra in Etne in Norway. Image released by Frode Mæland.

Unbelievably, the car was occupied at the time of the rockfall, but the person (Christian Lee) was unharmed.

It appears that the location of this event at Fjæra is [59.87357, 6.38121], although this is unconfirmed.

The road is now closed for further investigation.

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Past climate change: First indicators show resilience in tropical life—up to 1.5°C

Phys.org: Earth science - Sun, 03/01/2026 - 21:00
New geological data indicate that marine life is somewhat resilient to warming in the tropics. Chris Fokkema, Earth scientist at Utrecht University, discovered that tropical algae were largely unaffected by a number of periods of global warming of up to 1.5 degrees Celsius in the distant past. These unicellular organisms form the basis of food webs and are generally very sensitive to rising temperatures. Previous studies of periods of even greater warming showed a dramatic decline in these organisms. "Somewhere beyond those 1.5 degrees, a tipping point occurs."

New computation method for climate extremes: Researchers reveal 10-fold increase in heat over Europe

Phys.org: Earth science - Sun, 03/01/2026 - 15:00
How much will heat, flooding, drought and storms increase as a result of human-induced climate change? In a groundbreaking study, climate researcher Gottfried Kirchengast and his team at the University of Graz have developed a new method for computing the hazards from extreme events: it can compute all relevant hazard metrics for events such as heat waves, floods and droughts in any region worldwide with unprecedented information content.

Enhanced rock weathering is not yet a reliable climate protection measure, say researchers

Phys.org: Earth science - Sun, 03/01/2026 - 15:00
Most countries will not achieve climate neutrality through greenhouse gas emission reductions alone; carbon sinks are also needed to offset unavoidable emissions. Researchers are discussing technical solutions, such as applying silicate-rock powder to arable land. This process, known as enhanced rock weathering (ERW), can bind carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Satellite imaging is now vital for disaster management: But there are dangerous gaps

Phys.org: Earth science - Sat, 02/28/2026 - 22:30
The extreme weather events and resulting destruction that have hit New Zealand this summer are not only signs of a changing climate. They also highlight the now indispensable role of remote sensing satellite technology.

Identifying basaltic flows and sills in buried Mesozoic rift basins along the eastern US seaboard using seismic interpretation and geopotential modeling

Geophysical Journal International - Sat, 02/28/2026 - 00:00
SummaryBasaltic flows and sills of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP) along the eastern North American seaboard have been proposed to be present in buried Mesozoic basins. Their offshore distribution is poorly constrained, yet the strong magnetic and gravity signature produced by basaltic rocks means it should be possible to map them using magnetic and gravity surveys. We conducted forward modeling using existing magnetic and gravity data to identify Mesozoic basins and basaltic units offshore. Onshore and offshore basins containing CAMP basalts in forward models generally predict the best fit with observed magnetic and gravity data. A positive magnetic anomaly over the New York Bight Basin suggests it may contain multiple basalt flows at depths > 2500 m, and scenario testing indicates the Long Island Basin possibly hosts at least one flow. The newly identified Central Bight Basin is unlikely to contain basaltic units, although the adjacent East Coast Magnetic Anomaly may be overwhelming potential basalt signatures within the basin. Deeper basement structures and/or possible interbasinal basalt likely influence existing data, therefore higher-resolution aeromagnetic and marine gravity surveys are needed to constrain CAMP basalt presence in offshore basins.

Improved Geocenter Motion Estimates through the Weighted Combination of GRACE/GRACE-FO Solutions and OBP Models

Geophysical Journal International - Sat, 02/28/2026 - 00:00
SummaryGeocenter motion, defined as the displacement of Earth’s center of mass relative to its center of figure, is crucial for maintaining the International Terrestrial Reference Frame origin and quantifying large-scale mass redistribution. However, whether observing geocenter motion by tracking satellite orbits or inferring it using geophysical models, accurately acquiring such subtle motions imposes stringent requirements on the consistency and precision of both tracking data and geophysical models. This study improves geocenter motion estimates derived from the combination of GRACE/GRACE-FO time-variable gravity (TVG) and Ocean Bottom Pressure (OBP) models (the GRACE-OBP method) in two ways. First, we apply a forward modelling technique to mitigate land–ocean leakage in GRACE/GRACE-FO TVG fields, which demonstrably outperforms empirical coastline buffer-zone corrections in controlled simulation experiments. Second, we introduce the Bayesian Three-Cornered Hat (BTCH) method to optimally combine geocenter series derived from multiple GRACE solutions and two independent OBP models (ECCO2 and MPIOM), producing an improved geocenter product without requiring a ground-truth reference. Uncertainty analysis shows that the noise level is governed primarily by the GRACE solution, and that BTCH provides a clearer advantage over equal-weighted averaging when the number of input series is limited, reducing the noise level by about 30 per cent. After restoring atmospheric and oceanic contributions, our improved geocenter series shows good agreement with the CSR SLR-derived geocenter product. Although uncertainty levels vary among individual solutions, the estimated annual and secular trend signals are broadly consistent and show limited sensitivity to the choice of GRACE TVG solution and OBP model. Using the improved geocenter series, we revisit the annual geocenter oscillation and its drivers; the results indicate that cryospheric mass variability and land-ocean mass exchange (i.e. sea-level fingerprints) provide non-negligible contributions to the annual geocenter cycle and improve consistency with observations. Finally, the improved geocenter series yields the lowest uncertainty in degree-1 mass variations, with a global RMS of 0.55 mm. Incorporating these degree-1 terms into mass budget assessments yields secular trends of 38.8 Gt/yr for the Antarctic Ice Sheet and 0.57 mm/yr for global mean ocean mass, highlighting the need for accurate geocenter corrections to support reliable long-term climate monitoring.

Why tropical cyclones' rainfall surges before landfall

Phys.org: Earth science - Fri, 02/27/2026 - 21:20
A research team at The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) has analyzed 40 years of data covering about 1,500 tropical cyclones and discovered that average rain rates surge by more than 20% in the 60 hours before landfall. The study is also the first to clearly identify the physical mechanisms behind this increase, showing that rising humidity over coastal areas and enhanced land-sea frictional contrasts strengthen convection, intensifying rainfall ahead of landfall. The results provide valuable insights for improving coastal disaster preparedness and early-warning systems.

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