SummaryThe Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang Fault System (XXFS), with slip rates of centimeters per year, is a major tectonic boundary accommodating southeastward extrusion of the Tibetan Plateau. Stretching over ~1,000 km through the densely populated Sichuan and Yunnan provinces in western China, it is particularly important to evaluate its potential for generating destructive earthquakes. This study systematically evaluates the XXFS within a physically grounded probabilistic framework by integrating geodetically modeled interseismic coupling, seismicity, empirical magnitude-area scaling laws, and barrier effects of creeping zones during dynamic rupture. We assess a range of rupture scenarios and obtain most probable maximum magnitudes of Mw 7.4 for the Xianshuihe fault, Mw 7.3 for the Anninghe-Zemuhe Fault, and Mw 7.2 for the Xiaojiang Fault, with corresponding fault-level recurrence of ~300, ~1 500 and ~170 years. The probabilities of occurrences of Mw 7.0 earthquake are higher along the northern and southern Xianshuihe, southern Anninghe, northern Zemuhe, and southern Xiaojiang segments. By assimilating geodetic and seismic data into a probabilistic framework that incorporates moment balance and rupture dynamics, our study provides a physics-based foundation for assessing regional seismic hazard in this tectonically active area. The approach is generalizable and can be applied to other fault systems where seismicity, basic geometry and geodetic coupling are constrained.
Climate change is lengthening our days because rising sea levels slow Earth's rotation. Researchers from the University of Vienna and ETH Zurich now show that the current increase in day length—1.33 milliseconds per century—is unprecedented in the past 3.6 million years. The team reconstructed ancient day-length fluctuations using the fossil remains of single-celled marine organisms known as benthic foraminifera.
Thanks to upstream diversions and climate change, Utah's Great Salt Lake has shrunk by 70% since 1989, exposing about 800 square miles of playa and mudflats—along with numerous curiosities. While a potential environmental catastrophe, the lake's dewatering presents numerous research opportunities for University of Utah geoscientists, including several who are looking to characterize the extent, characteristics, chemistry and flow of a mysterious, mostly freshwater aquifer under the playa.
The Amazon rainforest is famous for storing massive amounts of carbon in its trees and soils, helping regulate the global climate. Yet a paper published in New Phytologist shows that one of South America's largest carbon-storing ecosystems exists in an often-overlooked grassy savanna: the Cerrado in Brazil.
Before rain begins to fall, scientists and engineers can predict where a storm might cause flooding thanks to advanced modeling and digital simulations that help guide billion-dollar decisions involving infrastructure design, emergency response, land-use planning, insurance, agriculture, water quality, and public safety.
SummaryFrom late-December 2024 to mid-March 2025, a 50-km-long dyke intrusion triggered over 300 earthquakes (magnitude 4 to 5.9) between Fentale and Dofen volcanoes along the Northern Main Ethiopian Rift. Dyke intrusions periodically occur along the Fentale-Dofen magmatic segment and are an expression of ongoing rift extension. Preliminary analyses using interferometric synthetic aperture radar revealed extensive ground deformation (up to 60 cm), which closely matched the temporal and spatial evolution of surface manifestations and earthquake locations from global catalogs. While global catalogs are critical for real-time monitoring, the precision of locations in remote and or sparsely instrumented regions can be low. In this investigation, we present surface-wave relocation results of the dyking episode that began near Fentale volcano in December 2024. We estimate relative locations using differential travel times measured from regional-to-teleseismic distance surface-wave observations of earthquakes reported by the U.S. Geological Survey. Relative relocations reduce the initial region of diffuse seismicity to a 50-km-long narrow band bounding the strike of surface manifestations and the zone of maximum surface deformation. We demonstrate the precision of surface-wave relocations over incremental time periods, capturing the progression of dyking from seismic onset through seismic migration and caldera subsidence. Results showcase the utility of surface-wave relocations in the characterization of dyking episodes and provide complementary insights into the current understanding of the Fentale-Dofen volcanic plumbing system.
Artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming weather prediction, enabling forecasts that once required hours of supercomputing time to run in just minutes. But as AI tools play an expanding role in high-stakes hazard modeling, researchers at Rice University say an essential question remains: Do AI-generated storms behave realistically?
Two new studies conclude that stabilizing long-term climate risks will require sustained net-negative carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions for centuries. Approaching the problem from distinct perspectives—legal and technological feasibility on the one hand, and economic optimization under uncertainty on the other—the research converges on a consistent message: reaching net zero is not enough.
Publication date: Available online 5 March 2026
Source: Advances in Space Research
Author(s): Shagun Aggarwal, Andrew Dempster, Jason Held
Publication date: Available online 5 March 2026
Source: Advances in Space Research
Author(s): Chenguang Liu, Jianghong Sun, Tongyu Li, Ruonan Deng, Yan Zhang, Zhongxi Ning, Daren YU
Publication date: Available online 5 March 2026
Source: Advances in Space Research
Author(s): L.F. Chernogor, M.Yu. Tkachenko
Publication date: Available online 4 March 2026
Source: Advances in Space Research
Author(s): Alexander A. Massoud, Anthony A. Abubakar, Fabiano S. Rodrigues, Karim M. Kuyeng, Marcos Inoñán, Danny E. Scipión
Publication date: Available online 4 March 2026
Source: Advances in Space Research
Author(s): Pinar Civicioglu, Erkan Besdok, Gurkan Aksu
Publication date: Available online 4 March 2026
Source: Advances in Space Research
Author(s): Li Hanxu, Chen Shaojie, Ma Yueyuan, Wu Hao, Li Chonghui, Liu Zihao, Ruan Conghai
Publication date: Available online 4 March 2026
Source: Advances in Space Research
Author(s): Teppei Takemoto, Hideaki Miyamoto, Yuta Shimizu
Publication date: Available online 4 March 2026
Source: Advances in Space Research
Author(s): Xinyi Huang, Md Sahat Mahmud, Yiping Jiang, Rong Yang
From the rice paddies of South Asia to the wheat fields of northern China, summer monsoon rains sustain the livelihoods of billions. Yet these vital rains fluctuate dramatically from decade to decade—a variability that has long puzzled climate scientists.
Forests were growing on the now-submerged landmass of Doggerland thousands of years earlier than previously believed, according to a major new sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) study led by the University of Warwick. The findings suggest that Doggerland may have provided a surprisingly hospitable refuge for plants, animals, and potentially humans, thousands of years before forests became widespread across Britain and northern Europe.
The tidal environment of mangrove forests serves as nurseries for many fish species. Researchers at the University of Gothenburg have measured carbon dioxide and oxygen levels in 23 of the world's mangrove areas. The study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, sends out a warning that these ecosystems are increasingly threatened as sea temperatures continue to rise.
A research team led by Professor Jonghun Kam from POSTECH (Pohang University of Science and Technology) has revealed that typhoons are a critical factor in mitigating global droughts by simulating a scenario where typhoon-induced precipitation is removed. The study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, delivers the message that "imagining a world without typhoons is the starting point for understanding future droughts."
