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Is Convection Wobbling Venus?

EOS - Tue, 12/09/2025 - 18:32
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: AGU Advances

If you spin a bowling ball, the finger-holes will end up near the rotation axis because putting mass as far from the axis as possible minimizes energy. So, on planets –if there is a large mountain, it will end up at the equator; in physics terms, the axes of rotation and maximum inertia align.

Conversely, a planet that is very spherical will be rather unstable, so that the solid surface can move relative to the rotation axis, so-called true polar wander (TPW). Because of its slow rotation, Venus is extremely spherical; TPW can thus easily occur, driven for example by mantle convection, which is time-dependent. Furthermore, Venus’s axes of maximum inertia and rotation are offset, by about 0.5o.

In a new paper, Patočka et al. [2025] analyze the effect of convection on Venus’s axial offset and potential for TPW. They find TPW rates that are consistent with geologically-derived values, but that the resulting axial offset is much smaller than observed. Their conclusion is that atmospheric torques are likely responsible, as they probably are for the apparent variations in Venus’s rotation rate measured from Earth.

The angular offset between the rotation and maximum inertia axis as a function of time, driven by time-dependent convection. The mean value (0.0055o) is two orders of magnitude smaller than the observed value (0.5o). Convection cannot be causing this offset. Credit: Patočka et al. [2025], Figure 2e

Three spacecraft missions will soon be heading to Venus. Direct measurement of the effects predicted by the researchers are challenging, but the coupling between atmospheric dynamics and planetary rotation will surely form an important part of their investigations.

Citation: Patočka, V., Maia, J., & Plesa, A.-C. (2025). Polar motion dynamics on slow-rotating Venus: Signatures of mantle flow. AGU Advances, 6, e2025AV001976. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV001976

—Francis Nimmo, Editor, AGU Advances

Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Chaotic 3D currents form multiple microplastic 'attractors' beneath the ocean surface, study finds

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 12/09/2025 - 16:00
The ocean is saturated with microplastics. While we know the location of the great garbage patches, where plastic particles may accumulate below the ocean surface remains unknown. The vastness of the ocean means particle sampling data are sparse, but modeling how particles aggregate in 3D fluid flows can help determine where to look.

GeoFlame VISION: Using AI and satellite imagery to predict future wildfire risk

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 12/09/2025 - 13:30
Wildfires pose a significant threat across the southwestern United States, due to the region's unique topography and weather conditions. Accurately identifying locations at the highest risk of a severe wildfire is critical for implementing preventive measures.

Primed to burn: What's behind the intense, sudden fires burning across New South Wales and Tasmania?

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 12/09/2025 - 13:02
Dozens of bushfires raged over the weekend as far afield as the mid-north coast of New South Wales and Tasmania's east coast. A NSW firefighter tragically lost his life, 16 homes burned down in the NSW town of Koolewong and four in Bulahdelah, and another 19 burned down in Tasmania's Dolphin Sands.

Celebrating the MacGyver Spirit: Hacking, Tinkering, Scavenging, and Crowdsourcing

EOS - Tue, 12/09/2025 - 12:32

In 2009, Rolf Hut—then a doctoral student at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands—hacked a $40 Nintendo Wii remote, turning it into a sensor capable of measuring evaporation in a lake.

The innovation, tested in his lab’s wave generator basin, became part of Hut’s doctoral thesis and changed the course of his career. Though he’s now an associate professor at Delft, Hut considers himself a professional tinkerer and a teacher of tinkerers.

Back in 2009, Hut and a group of fellow Ph.D. students organized a session at AGU’s annual meeting in which hydrologists could demonstrate the quirky measurement devices they’d made, hacked, scavenged, or used in a manner entirely different from what manufacturers intended.

Rolf Hut from Delft University of Technology organized the AGU 2010 MacGyver session. The session included homemade devices such as a “disdrometer” for counting raindrops and a demonstration of the “rising bubble“ method of determining canal discharge. Credit: Rolf Hut

The session, “Self-Made Sensors and Unintended Use of Measurement Equipment,” was so popular that Hut organized it again the next year and the next. In addition to Hut’s remodeled Wiimote, early sessions included an acoustic rain sensor made from singing birthday card speakers, a demonstration of how to use a handheld GPS unit to measure tidal slack in estuaries, and a giant temperature-sensing pole that showed how the room heated up after the coffee break.

Since then, the endeavor has grown from a single session to many, expanded to the annual meeting of the European Geosciences Union in addition to AGU’s, and gained a new name: “People just kept calling it ‘the MacGyver session,’” Hut said.

This year, there are five MacGyver sessions, encompassing space weather, ocean environments, the geosphere, and crowdsourced science—the biggest program yet, said Chet Udell of Oregon State University, an electrical engineer and musical composer who is convening the geosphere session.

“The MacGyver sessions are a powder keg of possibilities,” Udell said. “You never know who’s gonna talk with who and what really cool collaboration or initiative could get started that way.”

The MacGyver Spirit

The term “MacGyver” originated with the 1980s television character, a resourceful secret agent known for elegantly solving complex problems with a Swiss Army knife, a few paper clips, chewing gum, or the roll of duct tape he always kept in his back pocket.

That can-do attitude is a natural fit for science, said Udell. “The MacGyver spirit is all about empowering the curiosity that drives science to also drive instrumentation.”

“Oftentimes, [scientists] come up to the barrier of, ‘I can’t ask that question because measuring this thing would be too infeasible, too complicated, too expensive, [the sensor] doesn’t exist,’” he said.

In addition to innovation—“There are a lot of people generating new science because they’ve hacked their instrumentation”—collaboration is key to the MacGyver spirit, Udell said. The ethos is less do-it-yourself (DIY) and more do-it-together. With strong links to the open-source and makerspace traditions, community and transparency are prioritized over competition and secrecy.

“No one lab has all of the expertise, the tools, and the capacity to bring these really interesting, handmade types of DIY innovation to the sciences,” Udell said.

Until recently, the MacGyver sessions were among the only places scientists and engineers could share these kinds of innovations with others. Journal articles’ methods sections typically aren’t long enough to explain exactly how to make one of these hacked or duct-taped devices.

But in 2017, the multidisciplinary, peer-reviewed journal HardwareX was launched with the aim of accelerating the distribution of low-cost, high-quality, open-source scientific hardware. Udell is an associate editor of the journal and recently published an article there with instructions on how to build a “Pied Piper” device that senses pest insects and then lures them into a trap. Citations from HardwareX can help MacGyver scientists justify time spent tinkering, he added.

The Alchemy of Serendipity

The in-person MacGyver sessions remain the heart of the movement, said Udell. There’s a certain alchemy that happens when you bring similarly geeky people together. “You know you’ve really found your community,” said Udell. “There’s a sensation that we’re all cut from the same cloth.”

“We want people to bring the physical device they’ve made and have a nerd-on-nerd discussion about that.”

There’s a reason they’re usually poster sessions, too, added Hut. “We want people to bring the physical device they’ve made and have a nerd-on-nerd discussion about that, which is a very different sort of communication than one-to-many broadcasting your awesome work.”

The format facilitates serendipitous discovery, too. “People walk by and they’re like, ‘Hey, what’s this weird device? I didn’t know you could measure that,’” said Udell. The conversation might spark an epiphany that could help someone solve a problem they’ve been wrestling with in their own research.

Kristina Collins, an electrical engineer who has convened several MacGyver sessions, said scientists and engineers from all disciplines are welcome at any of them—not just those in their own “Hogwarts House” or discipline.

“Having open-source hardware gives people a way to exchange information across different scientific cultures,” she said. “The point of Fall Meeting is to connect with the gestalt of what’s happening at the level of your field and also across fields. I really like that. I think everything interesting happens at the interface.”

Crowdsourced Science

Collins, now a research scientist at the Space Science Institute in Boulder, stumbled upon the MacGyver sessions at her first AGU annual meeting, in 2019—when she was a graduate student and the sessions were hydrology only.

At the time, she was working on making low-cost space weather station receivers for taking Doppler measurements and working with the worldwide ham radio community to deploy them—harnessing low-cost tech and crowdsourced science to gather data from the ionosphere and provide insights into the effects of solar activity on Earth.

“We named [our first receiver] the Grape because people like to name electronics after tiny fruit, and everything else was taken,” she explained (think: kiwis, limes, raspberries, blackberries, apples). “And also, it does its best work in bunches—many, many instruments [working] as a single meta instrument.”

The following year, Collins and some colleagues organized their own MacGyver session on sensors for detecting space weather. At AGU’s Annual Meeting 2025, there will be both oral and poster space weather MacGyver sessions . Collins will present an update on the Personal Space Weather Station Network and the various instruments, including Grape monitors, that make up this distributed, crowdsourced system.

For many geoscientists, the MacGyver spirit is not just a fun side quest, but a fundamental part of the scientific process, said Udell. “The questions we ask and the things that we observe are shaped by what we can measure, and this is shaped by our instrumentation,” he said.

“And so, in a way, what we make ends up making us.”

—Kate Evans (@kategevans.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Evans, K. (2025), Celebrating the MacGyver spirit: Hacking, tinkering, scavenging, and crowdsourcing, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250460. Published on 9 December 2025. Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

The Long and the Weak of It—The Ediacaran Magnetic Field

EOS - Tue, 12/09/2025 - 12:30

Time travelers to the Ediacaran can forget about packing a compass. Our planet’s magnetic field was remarkably weak then, and new research suggests that that situation persisted for roughly 3 times longer than previously believed.

That negligible magnetic field likely resulted in increased atmospheric oxygen levels, which in turn could have facilitated the observed growth of microscopic organisms, researchers have now concluded. These results, which will be presented at AGU’s Annual Meeting on Wednesday, 17 December, pave the way for better understanding a multitude of life-forms.

The Ediacaran period, which spans from roughly 640 million to 540 million years ago, is recognized as a time in which microscopic life began evolving into macroscopic forms. That transition in turn paved the way for the diversification of life known as the Cambrian explosion. The Ediacaran furthermore holds the honor of being one of the most recent inductees into the International Chronostratigraphic Chart, the official geologic timescale. (Last year, the Anthropocene was rejected as an addition to the International Chronostratigraphic Chart.)

A Collapsing Field, with Implications for Life

The Ediacaran was a time of magnetic tumult. An earlier study showed that our planet’s magnetic field precipitously fell from roughly modern-day values, decreasing by as much as a factor of roughly 30.

“We have this unprecedented interval in Earth’s history where the Earth’s magnetic field is collapsing.”

“We have this unprecedented interval in Earth’s history where the Earth’s magnetic field is collapsing,” said John Tarduno, a geophysicist at the University of Rochester involved in the earlier study as well as this new work.

The strength of our planet’s magnetic field has implications for life on Earth. That’s because Earth’s magnetic field functions much like a shield, protecting our planet’s atmosphere from being pummeled by a steady stream of charged particles emanating from the Sun (the solar wind). A weaker magnetic field means that more energetic particles from the solar wind can ultimately interact with the atmosphere. That influx of charged particles can alter the chemical composition of the atmosphere and allow more DNA-damaging ultraviolet radiation from the Sun to reach Earth’s surface.

There’s accordingly a strong link between Earth’s magnetic field and our planet’s ability to support life, said Tarduno. “One of the big questions we’re interested in is the relationship between Earth’s magnetic field and its habitability.”

We’re Getting Older (Rocks)

Tarduno and his colleagues previously showed that a weak magnetic field likely persisted during the Ediacaran from 591 to 565 million years ago, a span of 26 million years.

But maybe that period lasted even longer, the team surmised. To test that idea, the researchers analyzed an assemblage of 641-million-year-old anorthosite rocks from Brazil. Those rocks date to the late Cryogenian, the period immediately preceding the Ediacaran.

Back in the laboratory, the researchers extracted pieces of feldspar from the rocks. Within that feldspar, the team homed in on tiny inclusions of magnetite, a mineral that records the strength and direction of magnetic fields.

Team member Jack Schneider, a geologist at the University of Rochester, used a scanning electron microscope to observe individual needle-shaped bits of magnetite measuring just millionths of a meter long and billionths of a meter wide. “We can see the actual magnetic recorders,” said Schneider.

Working in a room shielded from Earth’s own magnetic field, Schneider measured the magnetization of feldspar crystals containing those magnetite needles. To ensure that the magnetite needles were truly reflecting Earth’s magnetic field 641 million years ago rather than a more recent magnetic field, the team focused on single-domain magnetite. A single domain refers to a region of uniform magnetization, which is much more difficult to overprint with a new magnetic field than a region magnetized in multiple directions. “We make sure that they’re good samples for us to use,” said Schneider.

Don’t Blame Reversals

The average field strength that the team recorded was consistent with zero, with an upper limit of just a couple hundred nanoteslas. “Those are the type of numbers you measure on solar system bodies today where there’s no magnetic field,” said Tarduno. For comparison, Earth’s magnetic field today is several tens of thousands of nanoteslas.

Given the weak magnetic field strengths dating to 565 million years ago and 591 million years ago and these new measurements of rocks from 641 million years ago, there might have been a roughly 70-million-year span in which Earth’s magnetic field was unusually feeble and possibly nonexistent, the team concluded.

And magnetic reversal—the periodic switching of Earth’s north and south magnetic poles—isn’t the likely culprit, the researchers suggest. It’s true that the planet’s magnetic field drops to very low levels during some parts of a magnetic reversal, but that situation persists for at most a few thousand years, said Tarduno. That’s far too short a time to show up in this dataset—the rocks that the team measured all cooled over tens of thousands of years, so the magnetic fields they recorded are an average over that time span.

Take a Deep Breath

If it’s true that Earth’s magnetic field was anomalously weak for about 70 million years, cascading effects might have helped prompt the transition from microscopic to macroscopic life, the team suggests. That shift, known as the Avalon explosion, preceded the better-known Cambrian explosion.

In particular, a weak magnetic field would have allowed the solar wind to impinge more on our planet’s atmosphere, a process that would have preferentially kicked out lighter inhabitants of the atmosphere such as hydrogen. Such a depletion of hydrogen would have, in turn, boosted the relative concentration of an important atmospheric species: oxygen.

“If you’re removing hydrogen, you’re actually increasing the oxygenation of the planet, particularly in the atmosphere and the oceans,” explained Tarduno. And because oxygen plays such a key role for so many species across the animal kingdom, it’s not too much of a stretch to imagine that the important life shift that occurred soon thereafter—miniscule creatures evolving into ones that measured centimeters or even meters in size—owes something to the invisible actor that is our planet’s magnetic field, the team concluded. “We passed a threshold that allowed things to get big,” said Tarduno.

It’s difficult to test this hypothesis by measuring ancient atmospheric oxygen levels, the team admits. (The ice cores that famously record atmospheric gases stretch back in time just about a million years, give or take.)

But this idea that the planet’s magnetic field may have triggered atmospheric changes that in turn played a role in animals growing larger makes sense, said Shuhai Xiao, a geobiologist at Virginia Tech not involved in the research. “If the oxygen concentration is low, you simply cannot grow very big.”

In the future, it will be important to fill in our knowledge of the magnetic field during the Ediacaran with more measurements, added Xiao. “One data point could change the story a lot.”

Cathy Constable, a geophysicist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography not involved in the research, echoed that thought. “The data are sparse,” she said. But this investigation is clearly a step in the right direction, she said. “I think this is exciting work.”

—Katherine Kornei (@KatherineKornei), Science Writer

Citation: Kornei, K. (2025), The long and the weak of it—The Ediacaran magnetic field, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250454. Published on 9 December 2025. Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Estimating an airborne dipole source using 3D wavefield simulations and seismic receivers on the ground

Geophysical Journal International - Tue, 12/09/2025 - 00:00
SummaryAcoustic signals can couple to the ground, providing an opportunity to use seismic stations to investigate airborne sources. The study of Bishop et al. (2022) used wavefield simulations in a fluid-solid medium to quantify the role of topography on the seismic (ground) recordings of a monopole source in the air. We build upon this study by linking wavefield forward modeling with the source estimation code MTUQ, which can accommodate point forces or moment tensors in a solid medium, as well as sources in the air (or water) if they are enabled by the forward-modeling solver. We perform a series of synthetic numerical experiments to demonstrate that a dipole airborne source can be estimated using ground-based receivers, even within the presence of realistic topography. We investigate the influence of receiver coverage, topography, and assumed source location on the estimated results. The established capabilities raise the prospects for future efforts to estimate dipole sources in 3D models that include heterogeneity in the air and the earth in addition to topography.

A snowy, cold start to winter follows a very warm fall: How are Illinois seasons changing?

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 12/08/2025 - 23:50
After years of little snow across the Chicago area, recent record-breaking snowfall and below-freezing temperatures might seem to contradict scientific reports of winters getting warmer. But climate change is still transforming how locals experience the changing seasons, including this fall, one of the top 10 warmest recorded in Illinois.

What lies beneath Greenland could change what we know about rising seas

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 12/08/2025 - 21:42
A new study led by researchers at the University of Ottawa provides a series of highly detailed 3D models of the Earth's temperature beneath Greenland and northeastern Canada, providing insights into the region's geological history and the response of the ice sheet to past and future climate change.

Tiny turbulent whirls keep the Arctic ocean flowing

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 12/08/2025 - 17:44
In the coming decades, climate change is likely to lead to a loss of sea ice in and an influx of warmer water to the Arctic Ocean, affecting the ocean's vertical circulation. Brown and colleagues recently investigated the forces that drive the Arctic Ocean's vertical circulation to gain insight into how the circulation might change in the future.

Greenhouse gases projected to sharply increase extreme flooding in Central Himalayas

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 12/08/2025 - 16:10
Rising greenhouse gas emissions could see the size of extreme floods in the Central Himalayas increase by between as much as 73% and 84% by the end of this century.

When Should a Tsunami Not Be Called a Tsunami?

EOS - Mon, 12/08/2025 - 13:56

The public has long been educated to respond to the threat of a tsunami by moving away from the coast and to higher ground. This messaging has created the impression that tsunami impacts are always potentially significant and has conditioned many in the public toward strong emotional responses at the mere mention of the word “tsunami.”

Indeed, in more general usage, “tsunami” is often used to indicate the arrival or occurrence of something in overwhelming quantities, such as in the seeming “tsunami of data” available in the digital age.

The prevailing messaging of tsunami risk communications is underscored by roadside signs in vulnerable areas, such as along the U.S. West Coast, that point out tsunami hazard zones or direct people to evacuation routes. The ubiquity and straightforward message of these signs, which typically depict large breaking waves (sometimes looming over human figures), reinforce the notion that tsunamis pose life-threatening hazards and that people should evacuate the area.

The disparity between the scientific definition of tsunamis and their common portrayal in risk communications and general usage creates room for confusion in public understanding.

Of course, sometimes they do present major risks—but not always.

The current scientific definition of a tsunami sets no size limit. According to the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) [2019], a tsunami is “a series of travelling waves of extremely long length and period, usually generated by disturbances associated with earthquakes occurring below or near the ocean floor.” After pointing out that volcanic eruptions, submarine landslides, coastal rockfalls, and even meteorite impacts can also produce tsunamis, the definition continues: “These waves may reach enormous dimensions and travel across entire ocean basins with little loss of energy.”

The use of “may” indicates that a tsunami, or long wave, by this definition need not be large or especially impactful. If the initiating disturbance is small, the amplitude of the generated long wave will also be small.

The disparity between the scientific definition of tsunamis and their common portrayal in risk communications and general usage creates room for additional confusion in public understanding and potentially wasted effort and resources in community responses. We thus propose revising the definition of tsunami to include an amplitude threshold to help clarify when and where incoming waves pose enough of a hazard for the public to take action.

A Parting of the Waves

Tsunami wave amplitudes can vary substantially not only from one event to another but also within a single event. Following the magnitude 8.8 earthquake off the Kamchatka Peninsula in July, for example, tsunami waves upward of 4 meters hit nearby parts of the Russian coast, whereas amplitudes were much lower at distant sites across the Pacific.

Meanwhile, other disturbances create waves that although technically tsunamis, simply tend to be smaller. Prevailing public messaging about tsunami threats can complicate communications about such smaller waves, including those from meteotsunamis, for example.

Meteotsunamis are long waves generated in a body of water by a sudden atmospheric disturbance, usually a rapid change in barometric pressure [e.g., Rabinovich, 2020]. They are often reported after the fact as coastal inundation events for which no other obvious explanation can be found.

Once a meteotsunami is formed, the factors that govern its propagation, amplitude, and impact are the same as for other tsunamis. However, meteotsunami wave amplitudes are typically smaller than those of long waves generated by large seismic events.

Updating the scientific definition of a tsunami to include a low-end amplitude threshold could help avoid scenarios where oceanic long waves may be coming but evacuation is not required.

As coastal inundations are amplified by sea level rise and thus are becoming more frequent, a greater need to communicate about all coastal inundation events, including from meteotsunamis, is emerging. And with recent progress in understanding meteotsunamis, it is becoming feasible to develop operational warning systems for them (although to date, only a few countries—Korea being one [Kim et al., 2022]—have such systems).

Still, many meteotsunamis do not require coastal evacuations. Given the public’s understanding of the word “tsunami,” however, an announcement that a meteotsunami is on the way could cause an unnecessary response.

Updating the scientific definition of a tsunami to include a low-end amplitude threshold could help avoid such scenarios where oceanic long waves may be coming but evacuation is not required. We suggest that a long wave below that threshold amplitude should be referred to simply as an oceanic long wave or another suitable alternative, such as a displacement wave. Many meteotsunamis, as well as some long waves generated by low-magnitude seismicity and other drivers, would thus not be classified as tsunamis.

Conceptually, our proposal aligns somewhat with various tsunami magnitude scales developed to link wave heights or energies with potential impacts on land [e.g., Abe, 1979]. These scales have yet to be widely accepted by either the scientific community or operational warning centers, however, perhaps because it is difficult to assign a single value to represent the impact of a tsunami. In addition, tsunami magnitude calculations often require postevent analyses, which are too slow for use in early warnings.

We are not proposing yet another tsunami magnitude scale; rather, our idea focuses predominantly on terminology and solely on relatively low amplitude long waves.

Lessons from Meteorology

This kind of threshold classification for naming natural hazards has precedent in other scientific disciplines.

In meteorology, for example, a tropical low-pressure system is designated as a named tropical storm only if its maximum sustained wind speed is more than 63 kilometers per hour. Below that threshold, a system is called a tropical depression. A higher wind speed threshold is similarly specified before more emotive terms such as “hurricane,” “typhoon,” and “tropical cyclone” (depending on the region) are used.

Considering the effectiveness of using thresholds for tropical storm terminology, we anticipate that adopting a formal tsunami threshold could have similar benefits.

Current wind-based tropical storm naming systems have limitations, such as their focus on wind hazards over those from rainfall or storm surge [e.g., Paxton et al., 2024]. However, on the whole, using intensity thresholds for various terms has enhanced the communication of the risks of these weather systems—whether limited or life-threatening—to the public. The straightforward framework helps inform decisionmaking, allowing people in potentially affected areas to determine whether they should evacuate or take other protective measures against an approaching weather system [e.g., Lazo et al., 2010; Cass et al., 2023]. Lazo et al. [2010], for example, underscored that categorizing hurricanes is a powerful tool for easily conveying storm severity to the public, enabling faster and more confident protective action decisions.

Research into tsunami risk communication, including about best practices and regional differences, is limited compared with that related to other hazards [Rafliana et al., 2022]. However, considering the effectiveness of using thresholds for tropical storm terminology, we anticipate that adopting a formal tsunami threshold could have similar benefits for the communication of risk to the public. For example, it could inform decisions about where and when to issue evacuation orders and, equally important, when those orders could be lifted.

Open Questions to Consider

Our proposal raises important questions about the nature of a potential tsunami threshold and how it should be applied.

First, what should the threshold wave amplitude be? There is no obvious answer, and the decision would require careful consideration within the scientific and operational tsunami warning communities, although amplitude threshold–related techniques already used by tsunami warning services may offer useful insights.

For example, the Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre (JATWC) issues three categories of tsunami warnings: no threat, marine threat (indicating potentially dangerous waves and strong ocean currents in the marine environment), and land threat (indicating major land inundation of low-lying coastal areas, dangerous waves, and strong ocean currents). JATWC uses an amplitude of 0.4 meter measured at a tide gauge as a minimum for the confirmation of lower-level marine threat warnings [Allen and Greenslade, 2010]. That could be a possible value for our proposed threshold—or at least a starting point for discussion.

An internationally consistent threshold would be ideal, especially considering the expansive reach of tsunamis, but is not necessarily imperative. The terminology for tropical storms is not entirely consistent around the world, yet the benefits for hazard communication are still evident.

A second question is whether a wave should be considered a tsunami along its entire length once its amplitude anywhere reaches the threshold. We think not and instead propose that long waves be called tsunamis only where their amplitude is above the defined threshold. Were the threshold to be set at 0.4 meter, this provision would mean, for example, that in the hypothetical case following a large earthquake shown in Figure 1, only waves in the orange- and red-shaded regions would be considered tsunami waves.

Fig. 1. Modeled maximum amplitudes of waves propagating across the Pacific Ocean following a hypothetical magnitude 9.0 earthquake on the Japan Trench are seen here. Credit: Stewart Allen, Bureau of Meteorology

In this way, the proposed terminology for tsunamis would differ from that used for tropical low-pressure systems, which are classified as storms (or hurricanes, typhoons, etc.) in their entirety once their maximum sustained winds exceed a certain threshold—regardless of where that occurs. While tropical storms typically have localized impacts, long ocean waves can travel vast distances, even globally. However, since the destructive effects of these waves are limited to specific regions—similar to tropical storms—it is reasonable to refer to them as tsunamis only in areas where significant impact is expected.

This location-dependent classification may raise practical challenges for warning centers, in part because details of the forcing disturbance (e.g., the earthquake depth and focal mechanism) may not be immediately available and because of uncertainties about how a long wave will interact with complex coastlines, which can amplify or attenuate waves.

On the other hand, early assessments of where and when an ocean long wave should be defined as a tsunami would benefit from the fact that once a tsunami is generated, its evolution is fairly predictable because of its linear propagation in deep water.

Using amplitude threshold–based definitions will require efforts to educate the public about basic principles and the terminology of ocean waves.

Another issue for consideration is that using amplitude threshold–based definitions will require efforts to educate the public about basic principles (e.g., what wave amplitudes are and why they vary) and the terminology of ocean waves. Ubiquitous mentions of atmospheric pressure “highs” and “lows” in weather forecasts have familiarized the public with terms like “tropical low” and with what conditions to expect when the pressure is low. However, “oceanic long wave” and other such terms are more obscure. Choosing the best term for waves that do not meet the tsunami threshold, as well as the best approaches for informing people, would require social science research and testing with the public.

Finally, how do we ensure that this tsunami threshold terminology prompts appropriate public reactions, whether that is evacuating coastal areas entirely, pursuing a limited response such as securing boats properly and staying out of the water, or taking no action at all? Scientists, social scientists, and the emergency management and civil protection communities must collaborate to address this question and to test the messaging with the public. Using official tsunami warning services to issue warnings about above-threshold events and more routine marine and coastal services, such as forecasts of sea and swell in coastal waters, to share news about below-threshold events might be an effective way to help the public understand the potential severity of different events and react accordingly.

Normalizing and Formalizing

Should the use of a tsunami amplitude threshold be adopted for risk communications, we advocate that ocean scientists should also adhere to the terminology in presentations and research publications in the same way that atmospheric scientists have adhered to the threshold-dependent terminology around tropical storms. This consistency will gradually normalize the usage and reduce confusion. Readers of a scientific publication that notes the occurrence of a tsunami, for example, would instantly know that it was an above-threshold event.

Formalizing a scientific redefinition of what constitutes a tsunami will require discussion, agreement, and coordination across multiple bodies, most notably the IOC, which supports the agencies that provide tsunami warnings, and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which supports the agencies that provide marine forecasts. Should this threshold proposal receive enough initial support, the next step would be to elevate the proposal to the IOC and WMO for further consideration in these forums.

Considering the potential benefits for risk communications and the well-being of coastal communities worldwide, we think these are discussions worth having.

References

Abe, K. (1979), Size of great earthquakes of 1837–1974 inferred from tsunami data, J. Geophys. Res., 84, 1,561–1,568, https://doi.org/10.1029/JB084iB04p01561.

Allen, S. C. R., and D. J. M. Greenslade (2010), Model-based tsunami warnings derived from observed impacts, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 2,631–2,642, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-2631-2010.

Cass, E., et al. (2023), Identifying trends in interpretation and responses to hurricane and climate change communication tools, Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct., 93, 103752, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103752.

Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (2019), Tsunami Glossary, 4th ed., IOC Tech. Ser. 85, U.N. Educ., Sci. and Cultural Organ., Paris, unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000188226.

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Author Information

Diana J. M. Greenslade (diana.greenslade@bom.gov.au) and Matthew C. Wheeler, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic., Australia

Citation: Greenslade, D. J. M., and M. C. Wheeler (2025), When should a tsunami not be called a tsunami?, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250453. Published on 8 December 2025. This article does not represent the opinion of AGU, Eos, or any of its affiliates. It is solely the opinion of the author(s). Text © 2025. Commonwealth of Australia. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Tiny Turbulent Whirls Keep the Arctic Ocean Flowing

EOS - Mon, 12/08/2025 - 13:54
Source: AGU Advances

In the coming decades, climate change is likely to lead to a loss of sea ice in and an influx of warmer water to the Arctic Ocean, affecting the ocean’s vertical circulation. Brown et al. recently investigated the forces that drive the Arctic Ocean’s vertical circulation to gain insight into how the circulation might change in the future.

The researchers drew on data from a range of sources, including measurements from shipborne and mooring-based instruments, ERA-Interim, the Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, and the Polar Science Center Hydrographic Climatology.

Two contrasting factors emerged as the main drivers of vertical circulation as warmer waters flow from the Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic. In the Barents Sea, hitherto the only ice-free part of the Arctic, the ocean loses heat to the atmosphere, causing some of the water to become denser and to sink. Elsewhere, centimeter-sized whirls of turbulence mix in freshwater from rivers and precipitation, resulting in lighter-weight water that remains close to the surface.

As climate change continues to melt sea ice, the balance between these surface fluxes and turbulent mixing is likely to change. More of the ocean surface will be exposed to heat loss to the atmosphere. At the same time, turbulence is likely both to increase and to become more variable. The Arctic Ocean is a source of cold, dense water that feeds the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, a circulation pattern that holds key influence over the weather in western Europe and North America. Determining how changing circulation patterns in the Arctic Ocean will affect the AMOC should be a focus for future research, the authors suggest. (AGU Advances, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024AV001529, 2025)

—Saima May Sidik (@saimamay.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Sidik, S. M. (2025), Tiny turbulent whirls keep the Arctic Ocean flowing, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250455. Published on 8 December 2025. Text © 2025. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Adrift like Shackleton: Robot float survives Antarctic ice

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 12/08/2025 - 13:51
A robotic float has measured the temperature and salinity from parts of the ocean never sampled before—underneath massive floating ice shelves in East Antarctica.

Accelerating 3D Seismic Wave Simulations on ARM Using a Hybrid Half-Precision and Scalable Vector Extension Approach

Geophysical Journal International - Mon, 12/08/2025 - 00:00
AbstractSeismic simulation is fundamental for understanding earthquake physics and mitigating seismic hazards, but accurate seismic modeling requires fine computational grids, imposing severe memory and computational challenges. Traditional modeling solvers, relying on single-precision floating-point 32-bit (FP32) and scalar register-based computation, suffer from excessive memory consumption, low memory access efficiency, and limited computational efficiency. Compared with FP32, half-precision floating-point 16-bit (FP16) reduces memory consumption by 50% and improves memory access efficiency; relative to scalar registers, ARM’s Scalable Vector Extension (SVE) registers provide vectorized single-instruction multiple-data (SIMD) capabilities, significantly accelerating computation. However, leveraging the advantages of FP16 and SVE involves challenges such as FP16 overflow/underflow, SVE stencil adaptation, and SVE data misalignment from FP16 storage with FP32 arithmetic. Therefore, this study proposes three approaches on the ARM architecture: FP16-based, SVE-accelerated, and FP16-SVE hybrid; each is designed to tackle the respective challenges while exploiting FP16 memory efficiency and SVE computational acceleration. Correspondingly, the three solvers are implemented, validated, and benchmarked on both hypothetical models and real-world earthquake scenarios. The results of these solvers show near-perfect agreement with the reference solver, confirming their accuracy across diverse seismic scenarios. Moreover, the FP16-SVE hybrid solver halved memory usage and achieved up to 3× computational speedup, delivering more than 2.3× acceleration in the real-world earthquake simulation. The gains in high efficiency of memory and computation highlight the capability of the FP16-SVE hybrid solver to support large-scale, real-time seismic simulations and efficient earthquake hazard assessment on ARM platforms.

Full wavefield surface wave analysis with Bayesian Evidential Learning

Geophysical Journal International - Mon, 12/08/2025 - 00:00
AbstractSurface waves such as Rayleigh, Love and Scholte waves can exhibit dispersion, i.e., variations in phase velocity with wavelength as a function of frequency. This property enables the inversion of 1D models of seismic velocity and density in the subsurface. Conventional deterministic and stochastic inversion schemes are widely applied to surface wave data but face two main challenges. The first is the identification of dispersion curves for fundamental and higher modes on wavefield-transformed images, which is often done manually. The second is the quantification of uncertainty, which can be computationally expensive in stochastic approaches or limited to data-propagated uncertainty in deterministic inversions. Our objectives are to (1) eliminate the need for manual or automatic dispersion curve picking, and (2) directly infer ensembles of 1D velocity models - and their associated uncertainties - from the full velocity spectrum, i.e., the complete dispersion image containing all modes. To this end, we employ Bayesian Evidential Learning, a predictive framework that reproduces experimental data from prior information while allowing prior falsification. In our application, ensembles of prior Earth models are sampled to predict 1D subsurface structures in terms of seismic velocity and, where applicable, attenuation from near-surface seismic wave data. This approach bypasses traditional inversion schemes and provides a computationally efficient tool for uncertainty quantification.

Intraplate Repeating Earthquakes in the Rupture Area of the 2008 Gyeryongsan, Korea, Mw 3.6 Earthquake

Geophysical Journal International - Mon, 12/08/2025 - 00:00
SummaryRepeating earthquakes are believed to result from recurring ruptures of a single asperity, driven by surrounding aseismic creep. However, their occurrence and behavior in intraplate regions remain poorly understood. This study investigates the repeating earthquakes in the Gyeryongsan region of the Korean Peninsula, a tectonically stable intraplate region, following the 2008 Mw 3.56 earthquake. We augmented the earthquake catalogue from 2007 to 2022 using template matching and identified one repeating earthquake family comprising ten events with irregular recurrence intervals. The repeating earthquakes, with a median magnitude of Mw 1.22, occurred within the rupture area of the Mw 3.56 mainshock, beginning in late 2010 and subsequently recurring intermittently between 2011 and 2019. Stress drops of nearby earthquakes increased gradually from 0.3-0.9 MPa to 8.6 MPa over a decade, indicating a fault strength recovery period substantially longer than that typically observed at plate boundaries. We interpret that the earthquakes occurred within a damaged fault zone, reflecting extremely low loading rates in the intraplate region. Our study provides insights into earthquake behaviour within intraplate damaged fault zones and documents a rare case of a repeating earthquake family that persisted over ∼12 years.

Autonomous satellite orbit determination and time comparison with space-based VLBI measurements

Publication date: Available online 1 December 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Yifan Wu, Qianyi Ren, Richang Dong, Xinying Lu, Mingyuan Zhang

Groundwater science in the age of AI: emerging paradigms and challenges

Publication date: Available online 1 December 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Mahfuzur Rahman, Asif Raihan, Syed Masiur Rahman, Md Anuwer Hossain, Mohammed Benaafi, Isam H. Aljundi

A Dual-Capsule Structural Airship for Flight in the Stratosphere

Publication date: Available online 1 December 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Zhiguang Shi, Zongyu Zuo, Jiawei Song, Jingchuan Tang, Gang Wang

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