Phys.org: Earth science

The findings of a new paper show governance and preparedness rather than hazard magnitude determine whether avalanches become mass-casualty events. With large ice-rock avalanches growing in frequency as steep slopes in the Himalaya become unstable due to rapid glacier retreat, extreme precipitation and permafrost degradation, scientists believe saving lives, protecting infrastructure and reducing long-term economic losse s in some of the world's most hazard-exposed regions could be achieved through several practical steps.

The future of one of Antarctica's most iconic glaciers could be far more dramatic than scientists previously thought. Using satellite calibrated ice sheet models, a team of researchers from the University of Edinburgh found that the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica could be shedding 180–200 gigatonnes of ice per year by 2067—a rate roughly comparable to the entire Antarctic ice sheet's current mass loss. That would represent a stunning acceleration in ice loss from a single glacier and underlines urgent concerns about future contributions to sea level rise.

Every summer, people living near the Mendenhall River in Juneau, Alaska, keep a close eye on the water level. When the river level begins to rise rapidly, it's a sign that Suicide Basin, a small glacier-dammed lake 5 miles up the mountains, has broken through the glacier again and a glacial lake outburst flood is underway.

The 2025 Eaton fire's smoke did more than darken the sky: It generated a carbon monoxide and particulate matter surge that far exceeded Los Angeles County's average daily human-caused emissions, according to a new study led by researchers at the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences. The findings are published in the journal ACS ES&T Air.

The Miocene, beginning approximately 23 million years ago, represents a canonical "warm-Earth" interval characterized by elevated atmospheric CO2 and a warmer global climate. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as a leading mode of interannual climate variability, exerts pronounced influences on global precipitation patterns and the occurrence of climate extremes. Investigating ocean–atmosphere variability under Miocene-like high-CO2 background states therefore provides a valuable framework for evaluating climate-model performance in warm climates and for informing expectations of ENSO behavior under continued anthropogenic warming.

The episode of extreme rainfall that affected the east of the Iberian Peninsula at the end of October 2024 left a devastating mark on the province of Valencia. In some areas, such as Turís, more than 700 liters per square meter were recorded in 24 hours; in other words, in just one day, more water fell than the average rainfall in mainland Spain in an entire year. This caused catastrophic flooding and the disaster resulted in more than 200 deaths, as well as billions of euros in damage.

Ice cores taken from glaciers reveal the air pollution of the past, using atmospheric particles incorporated in snow that fell on the glacier and became ice. Now, scientists have extracted a record of thousands of years' worth of air pollution from 9.5 meters of ice at the Weißseespitze glacier, close to the border between Austria and Italy. But this ice is under threat from global warming, and scientists warn that it is now a race against time to capture critical climate information locked in these glaciers before it's gone forever.

Climate change is lengthening our days because rising sea levels slow Earth's rotation. Researchers from the University of Vienna and ETH Zurich now show that the current increase in day length—1.33 milliseconds per century—is unprecedented in the past 3.6 million years. The team reconstructed ancient day-length fluctuations using the fossil remains of single-celled marine organisms known as benthic foraminifera.

Thanks to upstream diversions and climate change, Utah's Great Salt Lake has shrunk by 70% since 1989, exposing about 800 square miles of playa and mudflats—along with numerous curiosities. While a potential environmental catastrophe, the lake's dewatering presents numerous research opportunities for University of Utah geoscientists, including several who are looking to characterize the extent, characteristics, chemistry and flow of a mysterious, mostly freshwater aquifer under the playa.

The Amazon rainforest is famous for storing massive amounts of carbon in its trees and soils, helping regulate the global climate. Yet a paper published in New Phytologist shows that one of South America's largest carbon-storing ecosystems exists in an often-overlooked grassy savanna: the Cerrado in Brazil.

Before rain begins to fall, scientists and engineers can predict where a storm might cause flooding thanks to advanced modeling and digital simulations that help guide billion-dollar decisions involving infrastructure design, emergency response, land-use planning, insurance, agriculture, water quality, and public safety.

Artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming weather prediction, enabling forecasts that once required hours of supercomputing time to run in just minutes. But as AI tools play an expanding role in high-stakes hazard modeling, researchers at Rice University say an essential question remains: Do AI-generated storms behave realistically?

Two new studies conclude that stabilizing long-term climate risks will require sustained net-negative carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions for centuries. Approaching the problem from distinct perspectives—legal and technological feasibility on the one hand, and economic optimization under uncertainty on the other—the research converges on a consistent message: reaching net zero is not enough.

From the rice paddies of South Asia to the wheat fields of northern China, summer monsoon rains sustain the livelihoods of billions. Yet these vital rains fluctuate dramatically from decade to decade—a variability that has long puzzled climate scientists.

Forests were growing on the now-submerged landmass of Doggerland thousands of years earlier than previously believed, according to a major new sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) study led by the University of Warwick. The findings suggest that Doggerland may have provided a surprisingly hospitable refuge for plants, animals, and potentially humans, thousands of years before forests became widespread across Britain and northern Europe.

The tidal environment of mangrove forests serves as nurseries for many fish species. Researchers at the University of Gothenburg have measured carbon dioxide and oxygen levels in 23 of the world's mangrove areas. The study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, sends out a warning that these ecosystems are increasingly threatened as sea temperatures continue to rise.

A research team led by Professor Jonghun Kam from POSTECH (Pohang University of Science and Technology) has revealed that typhoons are a critical factor in mitigating global droughts by simulating a scenario where typhoon-induced precipitation is removed. The study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, delivers the message that "imagining a world without typhoons is the starting point for understanding future droughts."

Californians have long dealt with wildfire smoke as a seasonal fact of life, but those fires have become more intense and frequent, raising the profile of wildfire smoke as a public health issue. Now, a study led by researchers at UC San Diego's Scripps Institution of Oceanography finds that the time between multi-day smoke events is shrinking—leaving communities with less time to recover before smoke returns.

By 2050, up to half the world's urban population will face water scarcity. A new model of water supply, demand, and policies in a drought-prone city of 7 million in India shows how policies could prevent the poor from bearing the heaviest burden.

An article published recently in Nature Geoscience warns that Antarctica's ice masses have begun to experience a process scientists call "Greenlandification." The term refers to the unprecedented retreat of Greenland's outlet glaciers and longer surface melt seasons.