GRL

Understanding the key drivers controlling rainfall stable isotope variations in inland tropical regions remains a global challenge. We present novel high-frequency isotope data (5–30 min intervals) to disentangle the evolution of six stratiform rainfall events (N = 112) during the passage of convective systems in inland Brazil (September 2019–June 2020). These systems produced stratiform rainfall of variable cloud features. Depleted stratiform events (δ18Oinitial ≤ −4.2‰ and δ18Omean ≤ −6.1‰) were characterized by cooler cloud-top temperatures (≤−38°C), larger areas (≥48 km2), higher liquid-ice ratios (≥3.1), and higher melting layer heights (≥3.8 km), compared to enriched stratiform events (δ18Oinitial ≥ −3.8‰ and δ18Omean ≥ −5.1‰). Cloud vertical structure variability was reflected in a wide range of δ18O temporal patterns and abrupt shifts in d-excess. Our findings provide a new perspective to the ongoing debate about isotopic variability and the partitioning of rainfall types across the tropics.

The formation of Lau Basin records an extreme event of plate tectonics, with the associated Tonga trench exhibiting the fastest retreat in the world (16 cm/yr). Yet paleogeographic reconstructions suggest that seafloor spreading in the Lau Basin only initiated around 6 Ma. This kinematics is difficult to reconcile with our present understanding of how subduction drives plate motions. Using numerical models, we propose that eastward migration of the Lau Ridge concurrent with trench retreat explains both the narrow width and thickened crust of the Lau Basin. To match the slab geometry and basin width along the Tonga-Kermadec trench, our models suggest that fast trench retreat rate of 16 cm/yr might start ~15 Ma. Tonga slab rollback induced vigorous mantle flow underneath the South Fiji Basin which is driving the extension and thinning of the basin and contributing to its observed deeper bathymetry compared to neighboring basins.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Atlantic tripole sea surface temperature (SST_tri) are important modes in the atmosphere and ocean over the North Atlantic, respectively. The link between the two is well-known. However, this link weakened during 1980–2001, which is particularly pronounced in late winter and was not detected in early winter. This phenomenon has not been well revealed. The role of NAO in the above correlation changes was discussed. In late winter, a significant eastward shift (up to 20° longitude) of NAO south center during 1980–2001 was observed in both observation and CMIP6, accompanied by the eastward expansion of NAO north center. Spatial shift of the NAO forced the region of strong air-sea interactions to shift and resulting in the collapse of NAO-related SST_tri. These findings deepen our understanding of the NAO on the subseasonal scale.

Along a climate gradient in the Chilean coastal mountains, we investigated denudation rates using the meteoric cosmogenic nuclide 10Be and its ratio to stable 9Be, and chemical depletion fractions (CDFs) in bulk soil samples. We find that the fraction of 9Be released from bedrock is a sensitive indicator of weathering, similar to CDF. Meteoric 10Be decreases exponentially with depth, reflecting the reactive nature of this tracer. We also measured denudation rates by the well-understood in situ cosmogenic 10Be system on quartz. Assuming that both systems record the same denudation rate we calculated the depositional flux of meteoric 10Be for each study site. The flux agrees to that derived from atmospheric models in the mediterranean and humid areas. In contrast, in the arid and semi-arid areas, the calculated flux agrees with a precipitation-derived flux, indicating delivery of 10Be to be affected by small-scale climatic variations not reflected by current atmospheric models.

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) during the early boreal spring can trigger El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the following boreal winter. However, the future changes in the impact of the NTA on ENSO remain controversial. Here, we show distinct changes in the strength of the NTA−ENSO relationship due to global warming by comparing models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) 5 and CMIP6. The impact of the NTA on ENSO under greenhouse warming is notably enhanced in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5. A wetter mean state over the subtropical eastern North Pacific and increased oceanic sensitivity over the equatorial central Pacific are key factors that enhance the impact of the NTA SST on ENSO. Therefore, differences in the mean state under greenhouse warming between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models can modulate the strength of the NTA−ENSO relationship.

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission provides a good opportunity to study fine-scale processes in the global ocean but whether it can detect balanced submesoscale eddies is uncertain due to the “contamination” by unbalanced inertial gravity waves. Here, based on concurrent observations from SWOT and a mooring array in the northwestern Pacific, we successfully captured two submesoscale cyclonic eddies with negative sea level anomalies (SLAs) in spring 2023. We find that the SLA amplitude and equivalent radius of the first (second) eddy are 2.5 cm and 16.0 km (2.0 cm and 18.8 km), respectively. For both eddies, their vertical scales are around 150 m and their horizontal velocities and Rossby numbers exceed 15.0 cm/s and 0.4, respectively. Further analysis suggests that similar submesoscale eddies can commonly occur in the northwestern Pacific and that SWOT is capable to detect larger submesoscale eddies with scales greater than ∼10 km.

In this study, we evaluated the performance of machine learning (ML) models (XGBoost) in predicting low-cloud fraction (LCF), compared to two generations of the community atmospheric model (CAM5 and CAM6) and ERA5 reanalysis data, each having a different cloud scheme. ML models show a substantial enhancement in predicting LCF regarding root mean squared errors and correlation coefficients. The good performance is consistent across the full spectrums of atmospheric stability and large-scale vertical velocity. Employing an explainable ML approach, we revealed the importance of including the amount of available moisture in ML models for representing spatiotemporal variations in LCF in the midlatitudes. Also, ML models demonstrated marked improvement in capturing the LCF variations during the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition (SCT). This study suggests ML models' great potential to address the longstanding issues of “too few” low clouds and “too rapid” SCT in global climate models.

The impact of land variables on temperature forecasts in atmospheric cycling is often underestimated or overlooked. This oversight primarily occurs due to the abundance of meteorological measurements available for assimilation and partly because soil states are assumed to be quickly reset by atmospheric forcing, such as precipitation, justifying no spin-ups or no updates of soil states during cycling. In this study, by updating soil moisture every 6 hr using different analysis data sets for May 2019, considerable discrepancies were found, highlighting large uncertainties in soil moisture analysis. Different soil moisture analyses produced systematically different temperature forecasts, with errors growing over cycles to be comparable to a typical error magnitude of 2-m temperature observations (∼2°K). This study demonstrates that temperature forecasts are significantly influenced by whether and how soil moisture is updated, not only near the surface but also up to the low-mid troposphere and throughout the cycles.

This study investigates the effects of sea spray on extreme precipitation forecast in Beijing of China between 28 July and 2 August 2023 as a case test. In this case, fully coupled model increased upward moisture in the Bohai and Yellow Seas and increased accumulated rainfall by 21% in North China. For the extreme precipitation events with the 5-day accumulated precipitation exceeding 500 mm, the atmosphere-only model did not forecast the events; the coupled model without sea spray performed well with the 0.29 threat score (TS) and 88 mm root mean square error (RMSE); in the fully coupled model, the effects of sea spray increased atmospheric instability, which increased the precipitation around Beijing and yielded a more accurate forecast with the 0.37 TS and 65 mm RMSE. This paper suggests a scientific clue to improve numerical simulation for extreme rainfall events, however, more cases are still needed for statistical evaluation.

It has been hypothesized that the olivine- and carbonate-bearing units within Jezero crater are part of the broader olivine-carbonate rock unit found in the Nili Fossae region. Further, it is commonly proposed that olivine and carbonate are closely associated with each other in Jezero crater based on visible/near-infrared spectral data. In this work, we investigate the olivine- and carbonate-rich units in Jezero crater using spectral, thermophysical, and morphological analyses to determine the relationship between olivine- and carbonate-rich units. Thermal infrared spectral data indicate largely weak to absent olivine signatures in the marginal carbonates. Our analyses suggest a decoupled relationship between olivine and carbonate in Jezero. The distinct appearances of olivine and carbonate in Jezero crater compared to the regional olivine-carbonate rocks in Nili Fossae may imply unique formation mechanisms for olivine and carbonate in Jezero or variable levels of olivine alteration across the broader region.

Climate models indicate that a warmer environment will increase low-level moisture, potentially intensify extreme precipitation. However, its impact on different rainfall types remains unclear. Using satellite data, we examined changes in light (0-95th percentile, ≤5.28 mm hr−1) and heavy (95-100th percentile, >5.28 mm hr−1) precipitation in the tropics from 1998 to 2019. Our findings show a −9 ± 2% (23 ± 2%) change in heavy (light) rain intensity and a 13 ± 2% (−24 ± 1%) change in heavy (light) rain frequency. These changes link to warmer sea surface temperatures, increased atmospheric stability and water vapor, and weakened upward velocity. These insights shed light on how heavy and light precipitation patterns respond to changing climate, emphasizing the complexities within the hydrological cycle.

Our current knowledge regarding the distribution patterns of ancient and recent recycled materials, as well as the origin of intraplate basalts in the eastern Asia Big Mantle Wedge (BMW), is limited. To address this, we conducted a detailed geochemical analysis of olivine melt inclusions (OLMI) in nephelinite samples. The normal OLMIs detected in our investigation exhibit geochemical features that closely resemble those of the hosting nephelinite, indicating a consistent association with a carbonated mantle source. Additionally, we identified a distinct group of anomalous OLMIs that displayed different geochemical characteristics from the hosting nephelinite but showed similarities to regional alkali basalts sourced from pyroxenite. The observed geochemical diversity in the nephelinite OLMIs suggests an interaction between deeply derived carbonated melts originating from the flattened Pacific slab in the mantle transition zone and pyroxenite in the lithospheric mantle. Carbonated fluid-fluxed melting is key to basalt formation in the BMW.

Terminus change is a complex outcome of ice-ocean boundary processes and poses challenges for ice sheet models due to inadequate calving laws, creating uncertainty in sea level change projections. To address this, we quantify glacier termini sinuosity and convexity, testing the hypothesis that terminus morphology reflects dominant calving processes. Using 10 glaciers with diverse calving styles in Greenland over the period from 1985 to 2021, we establish a supervised classification of calving style by comparing morphology and literature-derived calving observations. Validation with four of these glaciers and flotation conditions and subglacial discharge routing observations confirms concave, smooth termini indicate buoyant flexure dominated-calving, while convex, sinuous termini suggest serac failure dominated-calving. We also identify a mixed style where both calving types may occur. We use these classes to label calving style from 1985 to 2021 for all 10 glaciers and explore how this changes over time as glaciers retreat.

This study assesses the reliability and limitations of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) in detecting continuing currents by comparing observations from ground-based high-speed cameras with GLM-16 data. Our findings show that the GLM's one-group detection efficiency (DE_1) is 53%, while the more stringent five-consecutive-group detection efficiency (DE_5) is 10%. Optical signals detected by the GLM predominantly occur during the early stages of continuing currents. Additionally, there is a notable disparity in detection efficiencies between positive and negative continuing currents, with positive continuing currents being detected more frequently. The application of the logistic regression model developed by Fairman and Bitzer (2022) further illustrates the limitations in continuing current identification. The study underscores the challenges of relying solely on satellite data to monitor and analyze continuing currents, emphasizing the need for advancements in detection technologies and methodologies to reliably detect continuing current at a large spatial scale.

Omega bands are mesoscale auroral structures emerging as eastward moving quasi-periodic poleward protrusions well within the closed field line region of the auroral oval. Neither specific conditions of their appearance nor their causes are well understood. We perform a superposed epoch analysis of OMNI and SuperMAG measurements taken during 28 omega band events recorded by auroral all-sky imager observations from 2006 to 2013 to identify their solar wind drivers. We find local enhancements in the solar wind flow speed, magnetic field, pressure, and proton density at the time of the omega band observation. In the magnetosphere-ionosphere, we see enhancements in the ring current, partial ring current, and auroral electrojets. These features are consistent with geomagnetic activity caused by stream interaction regions (SIRs). 19 of our events overlap with SIRs from published event catalogs. Our findings suggest that omega bands are driven by compression regions commonly associated with SIR events.

While weakening of the boreal polar vortex may be caused by autumnal Arctic sea ice loss, less is known about the interannual influence of Antarctic sea ice on stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the Southern Hemisphere. Identifying any relationship over the short satellite period is difficult due to sampling variability and anthropogenic modification of the austral polar vortex. To circumvent these issues, we use large ensembles of fixed boundary condition simulations from the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) and Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to assess if and how interannual fluctuations in winter Antarctic sea ice influence spring planetary-scale waves and the coupled stratosphere-troposphere circulation. Low Antarctic sea ice conditions are found to modulate tropospheric stationary waves to project constructively onto the climatological stationary wave, enhancing upward planetary wave propagation into the austral polar stratosphere. In WACCM, the resulting vortex weakening coincides with development of negative Southern Annular Mode conditions during September–November.

Studies have implicated the importance of longwave (LW) cloud-radiative forcing (CRF) in facilitating or accelerating the upscale development of tropical moist convection. While different cloud types are known to have distinct CRF, their individual roles in driving upscale development through radiative feedback is largely unexplored. Here we examine the hypothesis that CRF from stratiform regions has the greatest positive effect on upscale development of tropical convection. We do so through numerical model experiments using convection-permitting ensemble WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) simulations of tropical cyclone formation. Using a new column-by-column cloud classification scheme, we identify the contributions of five cloud types (shallow, congestus, and deep convective; and stratiform and anvil clouds). We examine their relative impacts on longwave radiation moist static energy (MSE) variance feedback and test the removal of this forcing in additional mechanism-denial simulations. Our results indicate the importance stratiform and anvil regions in accelerating convective upscale development.

Forecasting warm-sector rainfall (WR) remains a major challenge, primarily due to weak synoptic forcing. Through cloud-permitting numerical simulations, in addition to direct triggering mechanism from low-level jets, we identify the important role of gravity waves in a heavy WR event in South China via convective preconditioning. The preconditioning manifests as mid-level moistening and destabilization with wave-like variations. This process is driven by fast-propagating (∼24 m s−1) n = 2 waves, associated with lower-tropospheric ascents and upper-tropospheric descents. Waves are generated during the evolution of northern frontal rainfall (FR). As FR intensifies, surges in low-level diabatic cooling mainly resulting from microphysical processes, trigger n = 2 waves, which further precondition the environment along their path. In contrast, a sensitivity experiment involving stably developing FR fails to reproduce the preconditioning process by waves and the subsequent occurrence of WR. Overall, our study illuminates a new pathway through which FR significantly influences WR via gravity waves.

River bedforms and their deposits—fluvial cross strata— respond to floods. However, it is unclear if all floods are equally represented in cross strata. Here, using a series of physical experiments in which bedforms were subjected to equivalent flood magnitudes over varying durations, we demonstrate the existence of a lower bound on flood durations that are represented in cross strata. We show that the scour depths and preserved set thickness are indistinguishable from baseflow conditions when the rising-limb duration of floods is shorter than the baseflow-equilibrated bedform turnover timescale—time required to displace the volume of a single bedform at baseflow conditions. In contrast, scour depth and preserved set thickness distributions deviate from baseflow conditions when flood rising-limb duration exceeds the baseflow-equilibrated bedform turnover timescale, causing preferential preservation of falling-limb bedform dynamics. Our work provides a previously unrecognized quantitative bound on flood durations that are represented in fluvial cross strata.

The long-standing “energy crisis” at the giant planets refers to the anomalous heating of planetary thermospheres compared to the available energy from solar irradiance. The coupling between planetary magnetospheres and their upper atmospheres is thought to address these crises, though the sources and pathways of energy transport have not been fully explored at each system. In particular, the total available energy from the upstream solar wind at each planet has not been comprehensively quantified. Here we apply recently developed models of energy conversion by magnetic reconnection and the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability to each of the Giant Planets, providing estimates of the average external energy inputs for each system between 1985 and 2020. We find that external energy associated with solar-wind-magnetospheric coupling significantly exceeds that from solar extreme ultraviolet photons. While internal energy sources are known to dominate at Jupiter and Saturn, external sources may be significant at Uranus and Neptune.