GRL

Several of the icy moons in the Jupiter and Saturn systems appear to possess internal liquid water oceans. Our knowledge of the Uranian moons is more limited but a future tour of the system has the potential to detect subsurface oceans. Planning for this requires an understanding of how the moons' internal structures—with and without oceans—relate to observable quantities. Here, we show that the amplitude of forced physical librations could be diagnostic of the presence or absence of subsurface oceans within the Uranian moons. In the presence of a decoupling global ocean, ice shell libration amplitudes at Miranda, Ariel, and Umbriel will exceed 100 m if the shells are <30 ${< } 30$ km $\mathrm{k}\mathrm{m}$ thick. The presence of oceans could also imply significant tidal heating within the last few hundred million years. Combining librations with the quadrupole gravity field could provide comprehensive constraints on the internal structures and histories of the Uranian moons.

Recent increase in extreme wildfire events has led to major health and environmental consequences across the globe. These adverse impacts underlined the need for better understanding of this phenomenon and to formulate mitigating actions. While previous research has focused on local weather drivers of wildfires, our knowledge about their large-scale climatic controls remains limited, especially in tropical Africa, which stands out as a global hotspot for fire emissions. Here, we show that interannual variability of carbon emission due to fires in the southern Congo Basin is strongly linked to low-level winds that are controlled by the Indian Ocean subtropical high. The interhemispheric transport of these emissions to West Africa relies on the intensity and position of both Indian and South Atlantic subtropical highs. Combined effects of this transport mechanism and carbon production in the source region explain a majority of the interannual variability of black carbon in West Africa.

The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) has experienced substantial dynamic thinning in recent years. Here, we examine the evolving behavior of NEGIS, with focus on summer speedup at Zachariae Isstrøm, one of the NEGIS outlet glaciers, which has exhibited rapid retreat and acceleration, indicative of its vulnerability to changing climate conditions. Through a combination of Sentinel-1 data, in-situ GPS observations, and numerical ice flow modeling from 2007, we investigate the mechanisms driving short-term changes. Our analysis reveals a summer speedup in ice flow both near the terminus and inland, with satellite data detecting changes up to 60 km inland, while GPS data capture changes up to 190 km inland along the glacier center line. We attribute this summer speedup to variations in subglacial hydrology, where surface meltwater runoff influences basal friction over the melt season. Incorporating subglacial hydrology into numerical models makes it possible to replicate observed ice velocity patterns.

We evaluate tropical cyclones (TCs) in a set of thermodynamic global warming (TGW) simulations over the continental United States (CONUS). A 12 km simulation forced by ERA5 provides a 40-year historical (1980–2019) control. Four complimentary future scenarios are generated using thermodynamic deltas applied to lateral boundary, interior, and surface forcing. We curate a data set of 4,498 6-hourly TC snapshots in the control and find a corresponding “twin” in each counterfactual, permitting a paired comparison. Warming results in an increase in mean dynamical TC intensity and moisture-related quantities, with the latter being more pronounced. TC inner cores contract slightly but outer storm size remains unchanged. The frequency with which TCs become more intense is only moderately consistent, with snapshots having increased hazards ranging from 50% to 80% depending on warming level. The fractions of TCs undergoing rapid intensification and weakening both increase across all warming simulations, suggesting elevated short-term intensity variability.

Equatorial plasma irregularities in the ionospheric F-region proliferate after sunset, causing the most apparent radio scintillation “hot-spot” in geospace. These irregularities are caused by plasma instabilities, and appear mostly in the form of under-densities that rise up from the F-region's bottomside. After an irregularity production peak at sunset, the amplitude of the resulting turbulence decays with time. Analyzing a large database of irregularity spectra observed by one of the European Space Agency's Swarm satellites, we have applied a novel but conceptually simple statistical analysis to the data, finding that turbulence in the F-region tends to decay with a uniform, scale-independent rate, thereby confirming and extending the results from an earlier case study. We find evidence for two regimes, one valid post-sunset (1.4 hr decay rate) and one valid post-midnight (2.6 hr). Our results should be of utility for large-scale space weather modeling efforts that are unable to resolve turbulent effects.

Several borehole cores intersecting faults related to coseismic slip display high-temperature features, including thermal decomposition of fault gouge. We present evidence that these features may be related to fluid drainage of the slip zone during seismic slip. We sheared water-saturated kaolinite powders under both fluid drained and undrained conditions, expected for seismic slip at shallow crustal depths. Our results show typical dynamic weakening behavior regardless of conditions. Under fluid drained condition, restrengthening accompanied by the thermal decomposition of kaolinite occurs. In addition, thermal decomposition of kaolinite tends to be initiated at high normal stresses (>5 MPa) with short displacement (<5 m). We propose that thermal pressurization acts as a weakening mechanism but ceases because of fluid drainage, triggering kaolinite thermal decomposition. This finding explains seismic-slip-related clay anomalies at depth rather than at the surface, as observed in the borehole after the 1999 Mw 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan.

The Makassar Strait throughflow (MST) is the major component of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), transferring Pacific water into the Indian Ocean. In our previous study, we identified a new zonal pathway, a. k.a. the North Equatorial Subsurface Current (NESC), which carried equatorial water into the MST sub-thermocline (>300 m) in the summer 2016 following the 2015/16 El Niño. We now show continued strong southward MST in the sub-thermocline during the winter of 2016–2017, with salinity higher than that in the summer 2016, due to direct South Pacific water intrusion into the Sulawesi Sea. The origin of the intrusion is identified from the New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent (NGCUC) and from an anomalous westward flow along 3°N in the western equatorial Pacific. The identified interannual variability of the western Pacific Ocean circulation is particularly strong in the winter following super El Niño events.

The balance between particulate inorganic carbon (PIC) and particulate organic carbon (POC) holds significant importance in carbon storage within the ocean. A recent investigation delved into the spatial distribution of phytoplankton and the physiological mechanisms governing their growth. Employing random forests, a machine learning technique, this study unveiled apparent relationships between POC and 10 environmental fields. In this work, we extend the use of random forests to compare how observed PIC and POC respond to environmental conditions. PIC and POC exhibit similar responses to certain environmental drivers, suggesting that these do not explain differences in their distribution. However, PIC is less sensitive to iron and more sensitive to light and mixed layer depth. Intriguingly, both PIC and POC display weak sensitivity to CO2, contrary to previous studies, possibly due to the elevated pCO2 in our data set. This research sheds light on the underlying processes influencing carbon sequestration and ocean productivity.

Climate models struggle to produce sea surface temperature (SST) gradient trends in the tropical Pacific comparable to those seen recently in nature. Here, we find that the magnitude of the cloud-SST feedback in the subtropical Southeast Pacific is correlated across models with the magnitude of Eastern Pacific multi-decadal SST variability. A heat-budget analysis reveals coupling between cloud-radiative effects, circulation, and SST gradients in driving multi-decadal variability in the Eastern Pacific. Using this relationship and observed feedback estimates, we find that internal Eastern Pacific SST variability is underestimated in most models. Adjusting for model bias increases the likelihood of generating a cooling trend at least as large as observations in preindustrial control simulations by ∼ ${\sim} $56% on average. If models underestimate climate “noise,” as our results suggest, this bias should be accounted for when attributing the relative importance of forced versus unforced changes in the climate.

The depth of the Los Angeles (LA) basin is a critical factor for seismic hazard assessment and active tectonic studies. By analyzing S-waves generated by earthquakes below the basin that convert to P-waves at the sediment-bedrock interface, we estimate the maximum depth of the LA basin to be 9 km. This estimate depends on the velocities within and below the basin, and the depth presented here is based on the latest community velocity model. To map the basin depth, we use two dense arrays: the Community Seismic Network, a dense network of low-cost accelerometers in schools across LA region, and a basin-wide node survey conducted in 2022, consisting of about 300 geophones deployed for a month. Utilizing differential travel times between direct S and Sp converted phases of local earthquakes, we produce a detailed depth map of the LA basin.

Plasma sheet convection is a key element of storm-time plasma dynamics in the magnetosphere. While decades of observations have advanced our understanding of convection in general, specifically storm-time convection remains poorly understood. Using data from ISAS/NASA's Geotail and NASA's MMS, this study characterizes plasma sheet magnetic flux transport across the magnetotail during numerous storms (both recovery and main phases) and contrasts these observations with those from quiet times. Our findings confirm the well-documented enhancement of the convection electric field during geomagnetic storms. Beyond that, our results reveal a significant dawn-dusk asymmetry. At dawn, the elevated convection is realized via relatively faster flows while at dusk, through a stronger northward magnetic field. These findings suggest a complex feedback loop between plasma sheet convection and ring current buildup, whereby the latter asymmetrically inflates the magnetotail on the dusk side, shifting the reconnection site and subsequently enhanced earthward flows toward dawn.

While the Cretaceous Normal Polarity Superchron has documented instances of brief reversed polarity intervals, the absence of accurate age determinations for such abrupt shifts poses a challenge in leveraging them as reliable reference tiepoints. This study presents a cyclostratigraphic analysis of gamma-ray data from the DSDP Site 402A. The identification of Milankovitch cycles allowed us to construct a 405-kyr astronomically-tuned age model for two reversed events that occurred in the Aptian. Our results estimate an age of 117.03 ± 0.14 Ma for the Chron M”-1r” or ISEA and 116.17 ± 0.14 Ma for reversal “2,” with timespans of ∼20 and ∼10 kyr, respectively. Sedimentation patterns are influenced by orbital eccentricity cycles with an average sedimentation rate of 5 cm/kyr. The short time intervals related to these reversals exposes the difficulty in their detection in cores through paleomagnetic analysis as well as in deep-tow surveys.

The interannual variation of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon onset (SMO) may bring extreme weather and climate disasters in East Asia. However, its skillful forecast still remains challenging. This study investigates the intraseasonal ocean-atmosphere interaction that affects the SCSSMO through diagnostic analysis and numerical experiments. It reveals that the cold sea surface temperature in the Southern SCS during winter (referred as cold tongue, CT) is the key pathway controlling the propagation of the 30–60 days intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) convective system from the Bay of Bengal (BOB) to the SCS. The CT variations affect the interannual variation of the SCSSMO. Specifically, the strong (weak) CT after the peak of La Niña (El Niño) years suppresses (enhances) the propagating ISO from the BOB to the SCS, resulting in a delayed (advanced) SCSSMO. This finding offers the new scientific insights for improving the forecasting of the SCSSMO.

The magnetotail plasma sheet boundary layer (PSBL) is a dynamic boundary layer between the hot-denser plasma sheet and the cold-tenuous tail lobes. It plays an important role in exchanging mass and energy in the magnetotail. In previous studies, the local current carried by the electron beams has been well understood. The strong energy conversion (E ⋅ J, E is electric field and J is current density), however, is barely reported at the PSBL. Here, using magnetospheric multiscale mission, we find a strong dawn-dusk current with a magnitude of 80 nA/m2 at the magnetotail PSBL. The strong current appears during crossing the PSBL and is primarily contributed by the perpendicular electron currents. Cooperating with an intense fluctuating electric field (reaching ∼40 mV/m) carried by the lower-hybrid drift waves, this dawn-dusk current leads to a strong energy conversion with a magnitude larger than 3 nW/m3. This study enhances the understanding of local energy-conversion processes at the PSBL.

Ambient noise interferometry has become a common technique for monitoring slight changes in seismic velocity in a variety of contexts. However, the physical origin of the resolved small velocity fluctuations is not well established for long-term seasonal effects. Here we propose a physical forward model of scattered waves in a deformable medium that includes acousto-elastic effect, which refers to non-linear elasticity with third-order elastic constants. The model shows that small pressure perturbations of a few kPa due to seasonal variations in the water table can induce seismic velocity changes compatible with those measured at the surface by ambient noise interferometry. The results are consistent with field observations near the deep geothermal site of Rittershoffen (France). They illustrate the capability in modeling the diffuse wavefield from scattering synthetic waves to reproduce ambient noise signals for monitoring environmental and/or deep reservoir signals.

Volcanic eruptions and wildfires can impact stratospheric chemistry. We apply tracer-tracer correlations to satellite data from Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment—Fourier Transform Spectrometer and the Halogen Occultation Experiment at 68 hPa to consistently compare the chemical impact on HCl after multiple wildfires and volcanic eruptions of different magnitudes. The 2020 Australian New Year (ANY) fire displayed an order of magnitude less stratospheric aerosol extinction than the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, but showed similar large changes in mid-latitude lower stratosphere HCl. While the mid-latitude aerosol loadings from the 2015 Calbuco and 2022 Hunga volcanic eruptions were similar to the ANY fire, little impact on HCl occurred. The 2009 Australian Black Saturday fire and 2021 smoke remaining from 2020 yield small HCl changes, at the edge of the detection method. These observed contrasts across events highlight greater reactivity for smoke versus volcanic aerosols at warm temperatures.

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability originates from a large number of interacting processes with multiple time scales, with dominant processes dependent on both the latitude and timescale of interest. Here, we isolate the optimal atmospheric modes driving climate-relevant decadal AMOC variability using a novel approach combining dynamical and statistical attribution (dynamics-weighted principal component, or DPC analysis). We find that for both the subpolar (55°N) and subtropical (25°N) AMOC, the most effective independent mode of heat flux forcing closely resembles the North Atlantic Oscillation, and drives meridionally coherent AMOC anomalies through western boundary density anomalies. Conversely, established modes of wind stress variability possess limited quantitative similarity to the optimal wind stress patterns, which generate low-frequency AMOC fluctuations by rearranging the ocean buoyancy field. We demonstrate (by running a modified version of the ECCOv4r4 state estimate) that most AMOC variability on decadal time scales can be explained by the DPCs.

Lightning is the severest threaten to safe operation of wind turbines. In this letter, the authors present the first altitude-triggered lightning experiment involving an elevated 12 m-long wind turbine blade placed on the ground. A total of 50 precursors with amplitude over 62.9 A were observed through measurements of channel-base current, fast electric field, and optical data. The air gap with around 3–5 m has been bridged between the wire's lower extremity and the metal blade tip during ascending of the rocket and it is observed to be luminous by slow framing rate camera. The precursors are classified into three groups, namely bipolar pulses, unipolar pulses, and group pulses. Excluding the precursors preceding the initial stage and M-components at the late-time of the initial stage, five stages are classified. In the first stage, the current remains limited at a relatively small value, while the electric field exhibited a slow rising behavior with positive polarity. In the second stage, the current starts to increase, and the electric field rapidly intensifies due to the accumulating charge, and the wire is assumed to experience an explosion. In the third stage, the reconnection process occurs. The current is characterized by a peak value of 1.45 kA with 10%–90% risetime of 10.4 μs. The electric fields suffer from notable decrease and are characterized by a microsecond-scale V-shape pulse. The current cutoff is quite short that almost not found. In the fourth step, the current is characterized by superimposed pulses. The final stage is the channel darkening.

Subthermocline eddies (SEs) influencing ocean circulation are progressively known, yet their extensive impact on the western Pacific undercurrent system remains largely unexplored and, in some regions, often underestimated. Okubo-Weiss parameter analysis reveals a distinctive meridional pattern of cyclonic and anticyclonic SE distribution in the interior western Pacific basin that aligns with zonally elongated mean flows. These westward-propagating SEs play a pivotal role in regulating the formation of zonal undercurrents, particularly off-equatorial regions, through the convergence of eddy potential vorticity flux. Along the Pacific western boundary region, anticyclonic SEs typically enhance (reverse) the velocity of boundary currents flowing northward (southward), primarily through barotropic energy conversion, while cyclonic SEs do the opposite. To summarize, we provide a schematic map of the circulation system in the western Pacific and emphasize the interconnected framework of undercurrents, particularly in relation to SEs.

Mid-latitude auroras are conventionally generated during intense magnetic storms. However, mid-latitude auroras were observed by naked eyes at Beijing China (39°N, 116°E) unusually during a moderate storm event on 1 December 2023 with the minimum Sym-H index only ∼ ${\sim} $ −120 nT. This study combines conjugative in-site and ground-based observations to analyze the auroras and underlying physical processes. Results indicate that both electron and proton auroras appeared at low latitudes. Electron auroras predominantly arise from low-energy electron precipitation, but proton auroras may be explained by energetic tens of keV proton precipitation. Pc1/EMIC waves are observed at low latitudes in the ionosphere, potentially accounting for mid-latitude proton auroras. Downward field-aligned currents (FACs) are also detected at low latitudes, producing significant magnetic perturbations. This study reveals the underlying ionospheric responses to the mid-latitude auroras to understand potential reasons for observing aurora at such mid-latitudes during a moderate storm.