GRL

Midlatitude Europe (ME) emerges as a prominent heatwave hotspot with rapid increases in summer surface air temperature and heatwave days since 1979, surpassing the global land averages by approximately 2.6 and 2.3 times, respectively. The circulation analogs-based dynamic adjustment reveals that approximately 38% and 35% of these trends result from shifts in zonal dipolar circulation patterns over the North Atlantic (NA) and Europe, crucial for the enhanced warming compared to the global land average. The circulation changes are associated with warming sea surface temperatures in the NA. This warming pattern resembles the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and is predominantly induced by greenhouse gases. Moreover, the stronger air temperature response in ME to decreased aerosols amplifies warming, contributing to the rapid increase in heatwave frequency. These findings highlight a prominent influence of anthropogenic forcings on the swift surge of European heatwaves compared to global land, with a potential implication for adaptation strategies and risk management.

Hydrological drought is a pervasive and reoccurring challenge in managing water resources. Reservoirs are critical for lessening the impacts of drought on water available for many uses. We use a novel and generalized approach to identify periods of unusually low reservoir storage—via comparisons to operational rule curves and historical patterns—to investigate how droughts affect storage in 250 reservoirs across the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). We find that the maximum amount of water stored in reservoirs is decreasing, and that periods of unusually low storage are becoming longer, more severe, and more variable in (a) western and central CONUS reservoirs, and (b) reservoirs with primarily over-year storage. Results suggest that reservoir storage has become less reliable and more vulnerable to larger deviations from desired storage patterns. These changes have coincided with ongoing shifts to the hydroclimate of CONUS, and with sedimentation further reducing available reservoir storage.

Over the past 30 years, the Arctic Dipole Anomaly (DA) has repeatedly led to record lows in summer sea ice extent, with cloud radiative effects (CRE) playing a crucial regulatory role. Here, we reveal the CRE variations between positive and negative DA events and elucidate the slowing impacts of CRE on sea ice thickness (SIT) changes. The DA triggers robust meridional winds and transpolar drift, markedly reducing SIT in the Beaufort Sea (BeS), Chukchi Sea (CS), and East Siberian Sea (ESS), while increasing it in the Greenland Sea (GS). CRE significantly slow SIT changes, contributing +14.4, +4.4, +16.4, and −26.7 cm to changes from June to August, against total changes of −55.9, −29.4, −39.8, and +42.8 cm in September over BeS, CS, ESS, and GS, respectively. This study underscores the key impacts of CRE on sea ice variation, emphasizing their significance in the polar climate system.

The impact of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) on rainfall anomalies in the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin (YHRB) was found to be modulated by the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), which is reasonable for the close associations between the QBO and summer extreme precipitation in the YHRB. It was found that the extreme precipitation preferentially occurred in the YHRB during the easterly phase of the QBO (EQBO) compared to the westerly phase of the QBO (WQBO). This was primarily because the BSISO was more prone to cause rainfall extremes in the YHRB during the EQBO summers than during the WQBO summers. The EQBO can induce the background stratospheric easterly wind to arch downward into the troposphere, which enhanced the BSISO-associated moisture transport and moisture convergence and thus resulted in stronger rainfall extremes in the YHRB.

The interplay between seismic activity and fluid flow is essential during the evolution of hydrothermal systems. Although earthquakes can trigger transient fluid flow and phase changes in dilational jogs, the temporal scale and the geologic conditions that enhance such process are poorly quantified. Here, we use numerical simulations of deformation and fluid flow to constrain the conditions that maximize adiabatic boiling—referred to as flashing—and estimate the extent and duration of such process. We show that there is an optimal geometry for a dilational jog that maximizes co-seismic flashing within the jog. Fluid flow simulations indicate that the duration, intensity, and propagation of the flashing front are limited and highly dependent on the magnitude of the co-seismic slip and the initial pressure-enthalpy conditions. Our results are valuable to better understand the implications of pressure fluctuations during the seismogenic cycle, as well the mineralization processes in the Earth's crust.

The overflow of cold water through the Faroe Bank Channel (FBC) is the densest water crossing the Greenland-Scotland Ridge and the densest source for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here, we show that the overflow volume transport remained stable from 1996 to 2022, but that the bottom water warmed at an average rate of 0.1°C per decade, mainly caused by warming of deep waters upstream. The salinity of the overflow water has increased as a lagged and reduced response to the salinity increase seen in the upper-layer source waters. Therefore, the potential density of the bottom water over the FBC sill shows no statistically significant trend. After entrainment of warmer ambient waters downstream of the FBC, the nonlinear density dependence upon temperature implies, however, that the overflow contributed water of reduced density to the local overturning and the deep limb of the AMOC.

Observational and modeling studies have elucidated the influential role played by the southern and northern extratropical Pacific (SEP and NEP) forcing in shaping dynamics of tropical Pacific climate variability. However, the relative importance of the NEP and SEP and the timescale on which they impact the tropics remain unclear. Using a linear inverse model (LIM) that selectively incorporates or excludes tropical-extratropical coupling, we find a reduction in tropical interannual variability (∼40%) and low-frequency (sub-decadal to decadal) variability in the southeastern tropical Pacific region (∼70%) in the absence of SEP. Conversely, the absence of NEP yields no significant impact on tropical interannual variability but markedly diminishes low-frequency variability in the central tropical Pacific region (∼70%). LIM and statistic diagnostics on CMIP6 models show the low-frequency to total variability ratio in the tropical Pacific depending on their NEP and SEP representation. Models with more (less) low-frequency power tend to show stronger NEP (SEP) dynamics.

We evaluate the skill and sources of skill in initialized seasonal climate forecasts of monthly global mean temperature from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) during the period 1991–2024. The forecasts demonstrate skill in addition to that from the long-term trend, and that skill is primarily attributable to ENSO. However, the skill varies seasonally, with skill being lowest for target periods during Northern Hemisphere summer. Single model ensembles show underdispersion at short leads, while the multi-model ensemble is overdispersed, suggesting initial condition errors and highlighting the importance of model initialization for quantification of forecast uncertainty. Lead-time dependent errors in global mean temperature trends appear related to Pacific trend errors. The multi-model mean captured the overall trend but underestimated the record-breaking temperatures of 2023. Forecasts for the remainder of 2024 indicate cooling by the end of the year.

We present the first global geospace simulation to reproduce auroral giant undulations (GUs). To identify their magnetospheric drivers, we employ the MAGE (Multiscale Atmosphere-Geospace Environment) model in a case study of a geomagnetic storm for which there were spacecraft- and ground-based observations of GUs. The model reproduces the spatial and temporal scales of the GUs as well as the presence of duskside subauroral polarization streams (SAPS) and plasmapause undulations. Based on our modeling, we are able to identify the magnetospheric drivers of GUs as mesoscale ring current injections which, after drifting westward, create inverted regions of flux-tube entropy (FTE) and subsequent interchange instability. Outward-protruding interchange fingers disrupt shielding of the inner magnetosphere, creating longitudinally localized ripples in magnetospheric convection equatorward of the magnetospheric instability, which structure the plasmapause and duskside diffuse precipitation. While not causal, SAPS and plasmapause undulations are a consequence of the unstable magnetospheric configuration.

Roughly one-third of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events lack a strong canonical surface response, and this can lead to a forecast bust if a strong response was predicted. Hence, it is desirable to predict before SSW onset if an event will propagate downward. The predictability of the downward response of SSWs is considered in seven subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast models for 16 major SSWs between 1998 and 2022, a larger sample size than considered by previous works. The models successfully predict before SSW onset which SSWs have a stronger downward response to 100 hPa, however they struggle to predict which have a stronger tropospheric response. The downward response is stronger if the magnitude of the deceleration of the 10 hPa winds is more accurately predicted. Downward response is stronger for split and absorbing SSWs. In contrast, there is little relationship between SSWs whose onset can be predicted at earlier leads and the downward response.

Typhoons, fueled by warm sea surface waters, heighten concern as they increasingly interact with frequent Marine Heatwaves (MHWs) in a changing climate. Typhoon Hinnamnor (2022) weakened and re-intensified as it approached the Korean Strait, interacting with an underlying MHW in the northern East China Sea (nECS). In-situ observations and reanalysis products revealed a significant increase in latent heat loss from the nECS during the MHW period, contributing to the typhoon re-intensification. Strong sea surface wind forcing with the typhoon enhanced vertical mixing and upwelling, resulting in a pronounced (0.90°C) sea surface cooling after the typhoon passage, facilitating MHW disappearance with reduced thermal stratification. During MHWs, increased background stratification increases temperature oscillations associated with semidiurnal internal tides. Furthermore, post-typhoon changes in stratification weakened semidiurnal internal tides due to unfavorable conditions for generation from a nearby source. These findings highlight the importance of continuous time-series observations to monitor interactions among climatic extremes.

Sedimentary landforms on Earth and other planetary bodies are built through scour, transport, and deposition of sediment. Sediment connectivity refers to the hypothesis that pathways of sediment transport do not occur in isolation, but rather are mechanistically linked. In dryland river systems, one such example of sediment connectivity is the transport of fluvially deposited sediment by wind. However, predictive tools that can forecast fluvial-aeolian sediment connectivity at meaningful scales are rare. Here we develop a suite of models for quantifying the availability of river-sourced sediment for aeolian transport as a function of river flow, wind regime, and land cover across 168 km of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, USA. We compare and validate these models using topographic changes observed over 10 years in a coupled river sandbar-aeolian dunefield setting. The models provide a path forward for directly linking fluvial hydrology with the management and understanding of aeolian landscapes.

Deep low-frequency earthquakes (DLFE) are observed beneath volcanoes worldwide but are limited to island arc volcanoes, hotspot volcanoes, and rift zones. Here we show DLFEs in the Tengchong Volcano Field, southeast Tibet, located ∼300 km from the Indo-Burma volcanic arc, by analyzing a 12-year continuous seismic data set. The earthquakes were at a depth of ∼12 km, near the sidewall of the magma body detected by the magnetotelluric survey. The features of isotropic focal mechanism, episodic occurrence, and possible non-power-law scaling, with no detectable geodetic deformation, as well as the petrological signatures of the Holocene eruption product, suggest that the earthquakes were likely associated with the weak intermittent magma flows near the magma body. This finding may demonstrate the existence of unsteady magmatic processes in the margin of the Indo-Eurasia collision zone, which could indicate unneglectable volcanic hazards, underestimated geothermal resources, and mineralization processes in similar regions.

From 1979 to 2022, the summer monsoon precipitation has increased by a substantial 40% over Northwest India compared to the 1980s. This wetting trend aligns with the future projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). The observationally constrained reanalysis data indicates that significant sea surface warming in the western equatorial Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea is likely driving this increase in rainfall by enhancing the cross-equatorial monsoonal flow and associated evaporation. We demonstrate that the strengthening of the cross-equatorial monsoon winds is due to the rapid warming of the Indian Ocean and the enhanced Pacific Ocean trade winds, which result from the poleward shift and expansion of the Hadley cell. These strengthened winds boost the latent heat flux (evaporation), leading to increased moisture transport to Northwest India.

Earlier proxy-observational studies, and a sole modeling study, suggest that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), an important global climate driver, exhibited multi-scale temporal variability during the Last Millennium (LM; CE 0851–1849, with relatively high number of strong positive IOD events during the Little Ice Age (LIA; CE 1550–1749), and strong negative IOD events during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP; CE 1000–1199). Using nine model simulations from the PMIP3, we study the IOD variability during the LM after due validation of the simulated current day (CE 1850–2005) IOD variability. Majority of the models simulate relatively higher number of positive IOD events during the MWP, and negative IOD events in the LIA, commensurate with simulated background conditions. However, higher number of strong positive IOD events are simulated relative to the negative IODs during the LIA, in agreement with proxy-observations, apparently owing to increased coupled feedback during positive IODs.

We investigate the role of the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) for downstream predictability, using two decadal climate prediction systems. We use the subpolar extreme cold and fresh anomaly event developing in winter 2013/2014 as initial conditions and evaluate ensemble predictions of the two systems in the following decade. In addition, we perform ensemble pacemaker experiments where the models are forced toward observed ocean temperature and salinity anomalies in the SPNA from November 2014 through December 2019. The pacemaker experiments show improved skill along the Atlantic Water pathway, compared with the standard decadal predictions, and we therefore conclude that the correct description of the ocean in the SPNA is the key. The enhanced skill is most prominent in subsurface salinity in the form of propagating anomalies.

How forests respond to accelerated climate change will affect the terrestrial carbon cycle. To better understand these responses, more examples are needed to assess how tree growth rates react to abrupt changes in growing-season temperatures. Here we use a natural experiment in which a glacier's fluctuations exposed a temperate rainforest to changes in summer temperatures of similar magnitude to those predicted to occur by 2050. We hypothesized that the onset of glacier-accentuated temperature trends would act to increase the variance in stand-level tree growth rates, a proxy for forest net primary productivity. Instead, dendrochronological records reveal that the growth rates of five, co-occurring conifer species became less synchronous, and this diversification of species responses acted to reduce the variance and to increase the stability of community-wide growth rates. These results warrant further inquiry into how climate-induced changes in tree-growth diversity may help stabilize future ecosystem services like forest carbon storage.

The precipitation of magnesium oxide (MgO) from the Earth's core has been proposed as a potential energy source to power the geodynamo prior to the inner core solidification. Yet, the stable phase and exact amount of MgO exsolution remain elusive. Here we utilize an iterative learning scheme to develop a unified deep learning interatomic potential for the Mg-Fe-O system valid over a wide pressure-temperature range. This potential enables direct, large-scale simulations of MgO exsolution processes at the Earth's core-mantle boundary. Our results suggest that Mg exsolve in the form of crystalline Fe-poor ferropericlase as opposed to a liquid MgO component presumed previously. The solubility of Mg in the core is limited, and the present-day core is nearly Mg-free. The resulting exsolution rate is small yet nonnegligible, suggesting that MgO exsolution may provide a potentially important energy source, although it alone may be difficult to drive an early geodynamo.

The frequency change of 100-year flood events is often determined by fitting extreme value distributions to annual maximum discharge from a historical base period. This study demonstrates that this approach may significantly bias the computed flood frequency change. An idealized experiment shows frequency bias exceeding 100% for a 50-year base period. Further analyses using Monte Carlo simulations, mathematical derivations, and hydrological model outputs reveal that bias magnitude inversely relates to base period length and is weakly influenced by the generalized extreme value distribution's shape parameter. The bias, persisting across different estimation methods, implies floods may exceed local defenses designed based on short historical records more often than expected, even without climate change. We introduce a frequency bias adjustment method, which significantly reduces the projected rise in global flood occurrence. This suggests a substantial part of the earlier projected increase in flood occurrence and impacts is not attributable to climate change.

City size is a primary determinant of the urban heat island (UHI) intensity, with its effects further nuanced by the urban form. But how to factor in the urban form into the UHI assessment remains unresolved. We propose an every-pair-interaction model that meaningfully incorporates urban size and fractal dimension to characterize the UHI intensity. Regression on the summertime surface UHI intensity of 5,000 European cities shows that the model outperforms the simple linear combination of logarithmic size and fractal dimension. Subject to the interplay between the range of the every-pair interaction and the urban fractal shape, the model also represents a generalization as it includes power-law, logarithmic, and saturating size dependence of UHI—all three possibilities have been reported empirically in the literature. Our theoretical framework indicates that the surface UHI intensity saturates with urban size, opening up new research perspectives around UHI intensity.