GRL

As the world’s glaciers recede in response to a warming atmosphere, a change in the magnitude and frequency of related hazards is expected. Among the most destructive hazards are glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs), and their future evolution is concerning for local populations and sustainable development policy. Central to this is a better understanding of triggers. There is a long-standing assumption that earthquakes are a major GLOF trigger, and seismic activity is consistently included as a key hazard assessment criterion. Here, we provide the first empirical evidence that this assumption is largely incorrect. Focusing on the Tropical Andes, we show that, of 59 earthquakes (1900–2021) the effects of which intersect with known glacier lakes, only one has triggered GLOFs. We argue that, to help develop climate resilient protocols, the focus for future assessments should be on understanding other key GLOF drivers, such as thawing permafrost and underlying structural geology.

In the California Current System (CCS), changes in the phenology (i.e., seasonal timing) of coastal upwelling alter the functioning of this productive marine ecosystem. Recently developed coastal upwelling indices that account for upwelling strength and nutrient flux to the surface provide a more complete understanding of bottom-up forcing in the region. Using these indices, we describe CCS upwelling phenological variability in vertical transport and nutrient flux. Physical and biogeochemical spring transitions generally co-occur in winter or spring, followed by increased upwelling and nutrient flux. In the latter half of the year, upwelling continues but nutrient flux wanes as declining source nutrient concentrations limit the biological efficacy of coastal upwelling. Earlier spring transitions and higher season-integrated upwelling intensity occur during strong La Niña events at all latitudes, driven largely by stronger alongshore wind stress. Understanding phenological changes in coastal upwelling is critical, as they could have significant ecosystem consequences.

Expansive soils pose a significant challenge in geotechnical engineering, especially in coastal areas. While research has mainly focused on their elastic properties, this study explores the overlooked aspect of inelastic subsidence during prolonged droughts, utilizing decade-long GPS datasets from the University of Houston Coastal Center. Our findings reveal substantial subsidence, approximately one to two dm, during the summer droughts of 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2023, due to compaction within the upper 4 m of expansive soils. Inelastic subsidence constitutes roughly 10% of the total subsidence, resulting in step-like permanent land elevation loss over time. Notably, drought-induced subsidence is prominent in open-field areas with expansive soils but is minor in built-up areas or in non-expansive soil regions. The occurrence of inelastic subsidence challenges traditional assessments of relative sea-level rise and coastal flooding, emphasizing the need to consider it in coastal infrastructure planning for enhanced resilience against climate uncertainties.

In this work the electric field of narrow bipolar events (NBEs) measured at a remote location is used to extract the current waveform of the source discharge. All calculations correspond to a vertical linear current source above a perfectly conducting ground plane. The current study uses the well established formulation of electromagnetic fields in the frequency domain, and develops a deconvolution based technique to obtain exact reconstruction of the source current, improving upon previous modeling of NBEs, which often require tuning several inter-dependent parameters to determine the current that best reproduces the observed electric field. Our proposed solution, although readily available in standard electromagnetic textbooks, has never been employed in the context of lightning related discharges, and offers a simple and efficient alternative to previous conventional time domain calculations.

We conducted a statistical analysis of local phase space density (PSD) minima across a wide energy range (∼20 keVs to ∼10 MeV), using observations from the Van Allen Probes and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite. We identified deepening minima in PSD profiles of multi-MeV (∼5% occurrence) and of “seed” electrons (up to 15% occurrence, corresponding to ∼70–100 s keV) and compared their distribution with a 3D diffusion model using the Versatile Electron Radiation Belts (VERB) code. The comparison of the observed and modeled distributions suggests that the PSD minima of seed electrons are likely associated with hiss waves and the corresponding L-shell dependent electron lifetimes. However, the observed distribution was not fully reproduced by the model, potentially indicating other fast loss mechanisms of seed electrons.

This study introduces the ROTated Atmospheric river coordinaTE (ROTATE) system — a novel storm-centric coordinate system designed specifically for analyzing atmospheric rivers (ARs). It effectively preserves key AR signals in the time mean that may be lost or obscured in simple averaging due to diverse AR orientations and shapes. By applying the ROTATE system, we compared climatological characteristics for northern hemisphere ARs. Composites of four key meteorological variables, integrated vapor transport, integrated water vapor, precipitation, and windspeed, indicate distinct and clearer patterns of ARs compared to the conventional non-rotated AR centroid-based compositing approach. Moreover, the ROTATE system improves precipitation rates, particularly around the AR center and its head and tail regions, providing more distinct delineations of the precipitation signals between landfalling and oceanic ARs. Overall, the ROTATE system has the potential to serve as a valuable tool for better comparing and understanding the characteristics, processes, and impacts of ARs across different regions.

The diurnal variation and distribution of lunar surficial hydration (OH/H2O) is of great significance for understanding the solar wind implantation and water cycle on the Moon. Lunar south pole is an ideal place to study the diurnal variation of surficial hydration due to the large number of repeat observations of the same region, which is very limited in mid- or low-latitudes. Here we showed clear 0.5-hr interval diurnal variation of surficial hydration at lunar south pole. The variation of hydration band depth with local time is exactly the opposite to the variation of temperature, indicating that lunar surficial hydration changes sufficiently with temperature. This relationship indicates that both the diurnal variation and hydration content are latitude dependent. Our observations support the hypothesis that the diurnal variation of hydration on the Moon is due to the formation of metastable hydroxyl.

Concurrence of temperature inversion (TI) and humidity inversion (HI) is a particular configuration of the atmospheric boundary layer with important implications for early warning of fog formation. With a microwave radiometer device deployed in a 2-month winter campaign at a coastal island in Qingdao, China, we here examine the relationship between TI and HI, and investigate the underneath mechanisms. Cases of temperature inversion are further divided into surface-based temperature inversion (SBTI) and elevated temperature inversion (ETI), which show different relationship with HI. SBTI typically occurs at night with its strength significantly and positively correlated with HI. ETI also shows a high degree of temporal overlap with HI, but its strength has no obvious relationship with HI. The main explanation for this phenomenon is that ETI may block the vertical diffusion of water vapor, resulting in the formation of HI.

The sea-ice cover in the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS) displays pronounced interannual variability. Both atmospheric and oceanic drivers have been found to influence sea-ice variability, but their relative strength and regional importance remain under debate. Here, we use the Liang-Kleeman information flow method to quantify the causal influence of oceanic and atmospheric drivers on the annual sea-ice cover in the BKS in the Community Earth System Model large ensemble and reanalysis. We find that atmospheric drivers dominate in the northern part, ocean heat transport dominates in the central and northeastern part, and local sea-surface temperature dominates in the southern part. Furthermore, the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the Nordic Seas drives ocean heat transport into the Barents Sea, which then influences sea ice. Under future sea-ice retreat, the atmospheric drivers are expected to become more important.

Global storm-resolving models (GSRMs) that can explicitly resolve some of deep convection are now being integrated for climate timescales. GSRMs are able to simulate more realistic precipitation distributions relative to traditional Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models. In this study, we present results from two-year-long integrations of a GSRM developed at Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, eXperimental System for High-resolution prediction on Earth-to-Local Domains (X-SHiELD), for the response of precipitation to sea surface temperature warming and an isolated increase in CO2 and compare it to CMIP6 models. At leading order, X-SHiELD's response is within the range of the CMIP6 models. However, a close examination of the precipitation distribution response reveals that X-SHiELD has a different response at lower percentiles and the response of the extreme events are at the lower end of the range of CMIP6 models. A regional decomposition reveals that the difference is most pronounced for midlatitude land, where X-SHiELD shows a lower increase at intermediate percentiles and drying at lower percentiles.

How and when sedimentary rocks record Earth's magnetic field is complex. Most studies assume a time-progressive lock-in mechanism during sediment deposition called depositional remanent magnetization (DRM). However, magnetic minerals can also form in situ, recording a chemical remanent magnetization (CRM) that is discontinuous in time. Disentangling the two mechanisms represents a major hurdle, and differences in their recording efficiencies remain unexplored. Here, our theoretical solutions demonstrate that CRM intensities exceed DRM by a factor of six when acquired in the same magnetic field. Novel experiments growing greigite (Fe3S4) in sediments and subsequent redeposition under identical magnetic field conditions confirm the predicted difference in recording efficiency. Thus, if left unrecognized, CRM leads to overestimated paleointensity and deserves more attention when interpreting Earth's magnetic history from sedimentary records. Recognition of fundamental differences between CRM and DRM characteristics provide a way forward to distinguish the recording mechanisms through routine laboratory protocols.

This study investigated the dependence of the early tropical cyclone (TC) weakening rate in response to an imposed moderate environmental vertical wind shear (VWS) on the warm-core strength and height of the TC vortex using idealized numerical simulations. Results show that the weakening of the warm core by upper-level ventilation is the primary factor leading to the early TC weakening in response to an imposed environmental VWS. The upper-level ventilation is dominated by eddy radial advection of the warm-core air. The TC weakening rate is roughly proportional to the warm-core strength and height of the initial TC vortex. The boundary-layer ventilation shows no relationship with the early weakening rate of the TC in response to an imposed moderate VWS. The findings suggest that some previous diverse results regarding the TC weakening in environmental VWS could be partly due to the different warm-core strengths and heights of the initial TC vortex.

Geothermal heat flow is a key parameter in governing ice dynamics, via its influence on basal melt and sliding, englacial rheology, and erosion. It is expected to exhibit significant lateral variability across Antarctica. Despite this, surface heat flow derived from Earth's interior remains one of the most poorly constrained parameters controlling ice sheet evolution. To obtain a continent-wide map of Antarctic heat supply at regional-scale resolution, we estimate upper mantle thermomechanical structure directly from V S . Until now, direct inferences of Antarctic heat supply have assumed constant crustal composition. Here, we explore a range of crustal conductivity and radiogenic heat production values by fitting thermodynamically self-consistent geotherms to their seismically inferred counterparts. Independent estimates of crustal conductivity derived from V P are integrated to break an observed trade-off between crustal parameters, allowing us to infer Antarctic geothermal heat flow and its associated uncertainty.

The development of an intense total electron content (TEC) depletion band over the United States during the 8 September 2017 geomagnetic storm was understood as the extension of an equatorial plasma bubble (EPB) to midlatitudes in previous studies. However, this study reports non-EPB aspects within this phenomenon. First, the simultaneous emergence of the TEC depletion band at midlatitudes and EPBs in the equatorial region indicates that the midlatitude TEC depletion band is not initiated by an EPB. Second, the intensification of TEC depletion at midlatitudes during the decay of TEC depletion at intermediate latitudes is anomalous. Third, the location of the TEC depletion band at midlatitudes is inconsistent with the EPB location estimated from zonal plasma motion. Given ionospheric perturbations in North America from the beginning of the storm, it is plausible that the TEC depletion band was locally generated in association with these perturbations.

Ice shelves are assumed to flow steadily from their grounding lines to the ice front. We report the detection of ice-propagating extensional Lamb (plate) waves accompanied by pulses of permanent ice shelf displacement observed by co-located Global Navigation Satellite System receivers and seismographs on the Ross Ice Shelf. The extensional waves and associated ice shelf displacement are produced by tidally triggered basal slip events of the Whillans Ice Stream, which flows into the ice shelf. The propagation velocity of 2,800 m/s is intermediate between shear and compressional ice velocities, with velocity and particle motions consistent with predictions for extensional Lamb waves. During the passage of the Lamb waves the entire ice shelf is displaced about 60 mm with a velocity more than an order of magnitude above its long-term flow rate. Observed displacements indicate a peak dynamic strain of 10−7, comparable to that of earthquake surface waves that trigger ice quakes.

The 2023 Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) maximum on 7 September was the lowest annual maximum in the satellite era (16.98 × 106 km2), with the largest contributions to the anomaly coming from the Ross (37.7%, −0.57 × 106 km2) and Weddell (32.9%, −0.49 × 106 km2) Seas. The SIE was low due to anomalously warm (>0.3°C) upper-ocean temperatures combined with anomalously strong northerly winds impeding the ice advance during the fall and winter. Northerly winds of >12 ms−1 in the Weddell Sea occurred because of negative pressure anomalies over the Antarctic Peninsula, while those in the Ross Sea were associated with extreme blocking episodes off the Ross Ice Shelf. The Ross Sea experienced an unprecedented SIE decrease of −1.08 × 103 km2 d−1 from 1 June till the annual maximum. The passage of quasi-stationary and explosive polar cyclones contributed to periods of southward ice-edge shift in both sectors.

No abstract is available for this article.

Air-entraining whitecaps provide an important source of bubbles over the global oceans, yet the rate at which the associated air is entrained is not well known. This lack of understanding limits the ability to accurately parameterize bubble-mediated gas exchange and sea spray aerosol flux. In this paper I present a model to predict the total volume of air entrained by individual whitecaps and extend it to estimate the rate at which air is entrained per unit sea surface area. The model agrees well with existing models and measurements and can be forced by the rate at which energy is dissipated by the wavefield which can be routinely provided by spectral wave models. I then use the model to present the first distributions of the estimated total volume of air entrained by individual whitecaps, as well as their rate of air entrainment and air degassing.

Existing models for estimating hyporheic solute mass flux often require numerous parameters related to flow, bed, and channel characteristics, which are frequently unavailable. We performed a meta-analysis on existing data set, enhanced with high Reynolds number cases from a validated Computational Fluid Dynamics model, to identify key parameters influencing effective diffusivity at the sediment water interface. We applied multiple linear regression to generate empirical models for predicting eddy diffusivity. To simplify this, we developed two single-parameter models using either a roughness or permeability-based Reynolds number. These models were validated against existing models and literature data. The model using roughness Reynolds number is easy to use and can provide an estimate of the mass transfer coefficient for solutes like dissolved oxygen, particularly in scenarios where detailed bed characteristics such as permeability might not be readily available.

Active vegetation fires in south-eastern (SE) Europe resulted in a notable increase in the number concentration of aerosols and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) particles at two high latitude locations—the SMEAR IV station in Kuopio, Finland, and the Zeppelin Observatory in Svalbard, high Arctic. During the fire episode aerosol hygroscopicity κ slightly increased at SMEAR IV and at the Zeppelin Observatory κ decreased. Despite increased κ in high CCN conditions at SMEAR IV, the aerosol activation diameter increased due to the decreased supersaturation with an increase in aerosol loading. In addition, at SMEAR IV during the fire episode, in situ measured cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) increased by a factor of ∼7 as compared to non-fire periods which was in good agreement with the satellite observations (MODIS, Terra). Results from this study show the importance of SE European fires for cloud properties and radiative forcing in high latitudes.