GRL

Rock salt is considered a suitable medium for the permanent disposal of heat-generating radioactive waste due to its isolation properties. However, excavation damage and heating induce complex and heterogeneous thermal-hydrological-mechanical (THM) processes across different zones. Quantifying this heterogeneity is crucial for accurate long-term performance assessment models, but traditional methods lack the necessary resolution. This study employs 4D electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) monitoring during controlled heating experiments in a salt formation to unravel the spatiotemporal dynamics of THM processes. Advanced time-lapse inversion and clustering analysis quantify subsurface properties and map the heterogeneity of THM dynamics. The ERT results can estimate subsurface properties and delineate the damaged and intact zones, enabling appropriate parameterization and representation of processes for long-term modeling. This approach may be used in further improving the predictive models and ensuring the safe long-term disposal of radioactive waste in rock salt.

Previous studies have confirmed the diverse spatiotemporal characteristics of Atlantic Niño events. Our research further reveals the crucial preparatory role of equatorial western Atlantic barrier layers (BL) and the triggering effect of westerly wind bursts (WWB) on different varieties of Atlantic Niño. Strong easterly winds typically facilitate the formation of thick BL by deepening isothermal layer depth in the western Atlantic through horizontal transport. The existence of BL accumulates the necessary heat for the onset of Atlantic Niño. Additionally, the timing of BL occurrences, the presence of easterly wind anomalies preceding WWB, and the duration of westerly wind anomalies jointly contribute to Atlantic Niño diversity. Persistent westerly wind anomalies following strong easterly winds often lead to Atlantic Niño events lasting over 6 months, while short-lived events occur when westerly wind anomalies cease shortly after their onset.

The state and fate of snow on sea ice are crucial in the mass and energy balance of sea ice. The function of atmospheric rivers (ARs) on snow depth over sea ice has not been measured thus far, limiting the understanding of the mechanism of snow depth changes. Here, the effect of ARs on snow depth changes was explored. We found that increased AR frequency is responsible for winter-autumn snow accumulation and spring-summer snow melting. The 2 m air temperature (T2m), rainfall, snowfall, mean net longwave radiation (NLR), mean net shortwave radiation (NSR) and cloud radiative effect (CRE) during ARs explain the changes in snow depth triggered by AR occurrence. This work helps us understand how ARs affect snow depth changes through related physical processes, promotes an understanding of climate systems and provides a theoretical basis for snow treatment in sea ice models.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a critical role in the global climate system through the redistribution of heat, freshwater and carbon. At 26.5°N, the meridional heat transport has traditionally been partitioned geometrically into vertical and horizontal circulation cells; however, attributing these components to the AMOC and Subtropical Gyre (STG) flow structures remains widely debated. Using water parcel trajectories evaluated within an eddy-rich ocean hindcast, we present the first Lagrangian decomposition of the meridional heat transport at 26.5°N. We find that water parcels recirculating within the STG account for 37% (0.36 PW) of the total heat transport across 26.5°N, more than twice that of the classical horizontal gyre component (15%). Our findings indicate that STG heat transport cannot be meaningfully distinguished from that of the basin-scale overturning since water parcels cooled within the gyre subsequently feed the northward, subsurface limb of the AMOC.

Giant undulations (GUs) have been well established to be the optical manifestation of the plasmapause surface wave (PSW) where the wave-particle interactions provide particle sources to generate auroras. However, their detailed particles precipitation signatures in the ionosphere remain unclear. Here we analyze multi-satellite conjugated observations in the ionosphere during a prominent GUs event, revealing the two-zone precipitation pattern including energetic proton precipitations responsible for the main body of GUs and low-energy electron precipitations for the edge of GUs. Interestingly, the occurrence of GUs is also accompanied with high-energy particles precipitations of hundreds of keV and magnetic disturbances of three components. The sizes of sawtooth in the GUs correlate positively with the strength of adjacent subauroral polarization streams (SAPS). The two-zone precipitation pattern and high-energy particles precipitation over GUs are potentially related to the plasma sheet and very-low frequency wave (VLF) modulation of the PSW, respectively.

HiRISE images and digital elevation models (DEMs) of outcrops in candidate Martian glaciovolcanoes provide more detailed evidence for glaciovolcanic processes than has previously been available for Mars. A group of ridges in the Pavonis Mons fan-shaped glacial deposit features pervasive layering, evidence for local collapse and slumping, and steeper faces in the direction of paleoglacier flow inferred from other features in the deposit. After comparison with terrestrial analogs, we conclude that these ridges are excellent candidates for tephra-dominated tindar, formed in phreatomagmatic subglacial eruptions. The englacial meltwater lakes required for a phreatomagmatic origin represent a rare example of voluminous surface water bodies in the Late Amazonian of Mars.

Mineral dust plays an important role in Earth's climate system, yet it is difficult to identify dust imprints in paleofluvial sediments, especially on orbital timescales. Here, we present high-resolution authigenic carbonate Ca–Mg–Sr compositions in a fluvial sequence under the transport pathway of Asian dust. The Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, and Mg/Sr ratios exhibit distinct transitions in both secular trends and orbital cycles at ∼8 Ma. Before ∼8 Ma, given similar Mg and Sr partitioning behaviors during carbonate formation, hydroclimate changes yielded strong orbital signals in the Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca ratios but no detectable signals in the Mg/Sr ratios. After ∼8 Ma, given the strengthened input of Mg-rich dust during cold‒dry periods, the Mg/Sr and Mg/Ca ratios clearly exhibited orbital signals, but the Sr/Ca ratio did not. Such transitions in carbonate composition corroborate the dust-induced changes in fluvial hydrochemistry, offering an innovative methodology for detecting orbital dust cycles in paleofluvial systems.

We estimate depth-dependent azimuthal anisotropy and shear wave velocity structure beneath the Alaska subduction zone by the inversion of a new Rayleigh wave dispersion dataset from 8 to 85 s period. We present a layered azimuthal anisotropy model from the forearc region offshore to the subduction zone onshore. In the forearc crust, we find a trench-parallel pattern in the Semidi and Kodiak segments, while a trench-oblique pattern is observed in the Shumagins segment. These fast directions agree well with the orientations of local faults. Within the subducted slab, a dichotomous pattern of anisotropy fast axes is observed along the trench, which is consistent with the orientation of fossil anisotropy generated at the mid-ocean ridges of the Pacific-Vancouver and Kula-Pacific plates that is preserved during subduction. Beneath the subducted slab, a trench-parallel pattern is observed near the trench, which may indicate the direction of mantle flow.

Although the 2021 Western North America (WNA) heat wave was predicted by weather forecast models, questions remain about whether such strong events can be simulated by global climate models (GCMs) at different model resolutions. Here, we analyze sets of GCM simulations including historical and future periods to check for the occurrence of similar events. High- and low-resolution simulations both encounter challenges in reproducing events as extreme as the observed one, particularly under the present climate. Relatively stronger amplitudes are observed during the future periods. Furthermore, high- and low-resolution short initialized GCM simulations are both able to reasonably predict such strong events and their associated high-pressure ridge over the WNA with a 1 week forecast lead time. Moisture sensitivity experiments further indicate a drier atmospheric moisture condition results in substantially higher near-surface temperatures in the simulated heat events.

Investigating the carbonate preservation efficiency (CPE) of continental crust is crucial to understand the global carbon cycle, which requires constraints on initial carbonate abundances (ICAs) of crustal rocks. To link Mg isotopes to ICAs, we present elemental and Mg isotopic data for Himalayan carbonate-bearing and carbonate-free metasedimentary rocks. Given no evident melt extraction or external-fluid infiltration, ICAs of these samples can be independently estimated by elemental data. Despite different carbonate species in the protoliths, all the samples show congruent relationship between their δ26Mg and ICAs, owing to the elevated carbonate δ26Mg and Mg/Ca in protoliths of calcite-rich samples resulting from diagenetic processes. When collated with literature data, we suggest the observed correlation here can be applied to most carbonate-bearing (meta-)sedimentary rocks. Based on a steady state box-model, we constrained the modern net carbonate accretion flux (9.50−5.56+9.50 ${9.50}_{-5.56}^{+9.50}$ Tmol/year) and the average time-integrated CPE (∼80−43+20 ${80}_{-43}^{+20}$%) for continental crust.

This study investigates the specific circulation anomalies that have sustained the low Antarctic sea ice state since 2016. Firstly, we find a significant strengthening and southward shift in the Ferrel Cell (FC) during 2016–2022, resulting in a marked increase in southward transport of heat and moisture. Secondly, this enhanced FC is closely associated with a stronger mid-latitude wave pattern. This pattern is zonally asymmetric and greatly amplifies the poleward advections of heat and moisture, leading to the increased downward longwave radiation, more liquid precipitation and sea ice retreat in specific regions, including the western Pacific and Indian Ocean sectors, Ross and northern Weddell Seas. The mechanism deduced from the short-term period is further supported by the results of 40 ensemble members of simulations. The southward expansion of the FC and sea ice decline are closely linked to La Niña-like conditions but may also be driven by anthropogenic global warming.

Probabilities of coastal extreme water levels (EWLs) are increasing as sea levels rise. Using a time-dependent statistical model on tide gauge data along U.S. and Pacific Basin coastlines, we show that EWL probability distributions also shift on an annual basis from climate forcing and long-period tidal cycles. In some regions, combined variability (>15 cm) can be as large or larger than the amount of sea level rise (SLR) experienced over the past 30 years and projected over the next 30 years. Considering SLR and variability by 2050 at a location like La Jolla, California suggests a moderate-level (damaging) flood today with a 50-year return level (2% annual chance) would occur about 3–4 times a year during an El Nino nearing the peak of the nodal tide cycle. If interannual variability is overlooked, SLR related impacts could be more severe than anticipated based solely upon decadal-scale projections.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diversity is characterized based on the longitudinal location of maximum sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and amplitude in the tropical Pacific, as Central Pacific events are typically weaker than Eastern Pacific events. SSTA pattern and intensity undergo low-frequency modulations, affecting ENSO prediction skill and remote impacts, and resulting in low-frequency changes in ENSO variance. Yet, how different ENSO types contribute to these decadal variance changes remains unclear. Here, we decompose the low-frequency changes of ENSO variance into contributions from ENSO diversity categories. We propose a fuzzy clustering of monthly SSTA to allow for non-binary event category memberships, where each event can belong to different clusters. Our approach identifies two La Niña and three El Niño categories and shows that the major shift of ENSO variance in the mid-1970s was associated with an increasing likelihood of strong La Niña and extreme El Niño events.

In early June 2023, New York City (NYC) and other cities in the northeastern US experienced a severe air pollution event. Although reports associated this hazardous pollution event with the smoke from Canadian wildfires, the factors triggering the southward waft of the smoke remain unclear. We found the northerly anomaly that transported the smoke was linked to the Rossby wave train excited by the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Philippine Sea, which led to the formation of an enhanced northerly at the western edge of the cyclonic anomaly over the East Coast–North Atlantic. When the MJO convection left the western Pacific, the disorganized teleconnection caused the pollution to dissipate. Observational findings were further supported by model simulations and predictions. These results suggest that monitoring and predictions of MJO activity may help mitigate air pollution events over the northeastern US during Canadian wildfire seasons.

Aged hydrocarbon wells, if proper care is not ensured, can crack, get corroded, and leak subsurface fluids. Permian Basin in Texas, home to thousands of such wells, has seen numerous blowouts and wastewater leaks. Our study employs surface deformation derived from satellite observations, and injection well records to investigate these events. The results reveal an over-pressurized wastewater aquifer producing a surface uplift of 20 cm/yr, likely due to wastewater being injected tens of kilometers away. Focusing on a January 2022 blowout resulting in 3 cm subsidence in 2 weeks, our geophysical model suggests aquifer over-pressurization as the cause. With an excess pressure of over 3 MPa in the aquifer, several more such blowouts are possible in the near future. This research highlights the urgent need to better understand the impact of subsurface fluid injection and calls for prompt action to mitigate the environmental effects of oil and gas production.

Precipitation changes in full response to CO2 increase are widely studied but confidence in future projections remains low. Mechanistic understanding of the direct radiative effect of CO2 on precipitation changes, independent from CO2-induced SST changes, is therefore necessary. Utilizing global atmospheric models, we identify robust summer precipitation decreases across North America in response to direct CO2 forcing. We find that spatial distribution of CO2 forcing at land surface is likely shaped by climatological distribution of water vapor and clouds. This, coupled with local feedback processes, changes in convection, and moisture supply resulting from CO2-induced circulation changes, could determine North American hydroclimate changes. In central North America, increasing CO2 may decrease summertime precipitation by warming the surface and inducing dry advection into the region to reduce moisture supply. Meanwhile, for the southwest and the east, CO2-induced shift of subtropical highs generates wet advection, which might mitigate the drying effect from warming.

The formation and evolution of the South Pole-Aitken (SPA) basin is critical to relating large impact basin formation and modification to lunar geophysical evolution. Most prior models of the SPA impact were conducted in 2D, making it difficult to compare model output to the 3D crustal structure and ejecta distribution. In order to better constrain the parameters of the SPA impactor and the expected post impact distribution of crust and ejecta, we conducted numerical simulations of the SPA impact in 3D. We tested a wide range of impact parameters and constrained model results with recent geophysical data. We found the crustal structure of the SPA basin is best fit by an oblique impact (30–45°) of a 350–400 km diameter projectile impacting at 12–16 km/s. The impact excavated material from as deep as 80–120 km, and ejecta was deposited in a butterfly pattern with a forbidden region uprange of the impact.

Atmospheric prediction at 2–6 weeks lead time (so-called subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales) entails large forecast uncertainty. Here we investigate the flow-dependence of this uncertainty during Boreal winter. We categorize the large-scale flow using North Atlantic-European weather regimes. First, we show that forecast uncertainty of near-surface geopotential height (Z1000) and temperature (T2m) are strongly sensitive to the prevailing regime. Specifically, forecast uncertainty of Z1000 reduces over northern Europe following Greenland Blocking (enhanced predictability) due to a southward shifting eddy-driven jet. However, due to strong temperature gradients and variable flow patterns, Greenland blocking is linked to increased forecast uncertainty of T2m over Europe (reduced predictability). Second, we show that forecast uncertainty of weather regimes is modulated via the stratospheric polar vortex. Weak polar vortex states tend to reduce regime-uncertainty, for example, due to more frequent predicted occurrence of Greenland blocking. These regime changes are associated with increased T2m uncertainty over Europe.

Reconstruction of the seawater carbonate system is essential for an improved understanding of glacial-interglacial oceanic carbon cycling and climate change. However, continuous high-resolution ocean carbonate chemistry data are generally lacking for the Plio-Pleistocene. Here, we present a deep Pacific carbonate ion saturation state (Δ[CO3 2−]) record spanning the last 5.1 Myr, reconstructed from the size-normalized shell weight of planktonic foraminifer in the western tropical Pacific. Deep Pacific Δ[CO3 2−] has been modulated primarily by orbital obliquity since 5.1 Ma, during which it has exhibited in-phase behavior with the 40-Kyr obliquity cycle. Significantly, the amplitude of the 40-Kyr Δ[CO3 2−] cycles has responded linearly to obliquity forcing throughout the Plio-Pleistocene, independent of the late Pliocene intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. We speculate that the obliquity signal in the deep Pacific Δ[CO3 2−] record reflects an ocean-atmosphere circulation feedback mediated by migration of the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies.

Using model projections to study the emergence of observable climate signals presumes omniscient knowledge about the climate system. In reality, observational knowledge suffers from data quality and availability issues, for instance data gaps, changes in instrumentation, issues due to gridding and retrieval algorithms. Overlooking such deficiencies leads to misrepresentations of the time of emergence (ToE). We introduce a new definition of ToE that accounts for observational limitations, and show that significant corrections to the ToE may be necessary to achieve the same statistical confidence as would be afforded by omniscient knowledge. We also show how our method can inform future observational needs and observing systems design.