Abstract
State-of-the-art climate models simulate a large spread in the mean-state Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), with strengths varying between 12 and 25 Sv. Here, we introduce a framework for understanding this spread by assessing the balance between the thermal-wind expression and surface water mass transformation in the North Atlantic. The intermodel spread in the mean-state AMOC strength is shown to be related to the overturning scale depth: climate models with a larger scale depth tend to have a stronger AMOC. We present a physically motivated scaling relationship that links intermodel variations in the scale depth to surface buoyancy fluxes and stratification in the North Atlantic, and thus connects North Atlantic surface processes to the interior overturning circulation. Climate models with a larger scale depth tend to have stronger surface buoyancy loss and weaker stratification in the North Atlantic. These results offer a framework for reducing mean-state AMOC biases in climate models.
