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Statistical and neural network assessment of climatological features of fog and mist at Pula airport in Croatia: from local to synoptic scale
Marko Zoldoš, Tomislav Džoić, Jadran Jurković, Frano Matić, Sandra Jambrošić, Ivan Ljuština, and Maja Telišman Prtenjak
Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/npg-2024-18,2024
Preprint under review for NPG (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Fog can disrupt aviation by causing accidents and delays due to low visibility, yet it remains under-researched in Croatia. This study examined fog and mist at Pula Airport using 20 years of data and machine learning techniques. There is a declining trend in fog, linked to changing weather patterns. Fog mainly occurs from October to March. These findings enhance knowledge about fog in Croatia and can improve weather forecasts, increasing safety at the airport.

Abstract

When charged particles are accelerated from Earth's magnetosphere and precipitate into the atmosphere, their impact with neutral gas creates the aurora. Structured electric fields drive the acceleration processes but they are also passed down to the ionosphere, meaning that turbulence can in part be embedded into the ionosphere rather than emerge through instability processes locally. Applying a point-cloud analysis technique adapted from observational cosmology, we show how observed turbulence in the ionosphere matches electrical current signatures in the pulsating aurora in a series of conjunctions between space- and ground-based instruments. We propose that the temporal spectrum of pulsations in the pulsating aurora is the driver of a clearly observed energy injection into the ionosphere's unstable bottomside. Precipitating electrons produce electric fields through charge deposition, and we observe wave characteristics that are present in this pattern. Next, the relative electron-ion drifts excite the Farley-Buneman instability, the distribution of whose waves are organized according to the local electric field. It is the temporal characteristics of chorus wave interactions in the magnetosphere that is imparted, via precipitating electrons, to the pulsating aurora, and so we propose that chorus wave interactions are capable of embedding turbulent structure into the ionosphere. This structure (now pressure gradients) dissipate energy in the E-region through turbulent processes, observed by the icebear coherent scatter radar.

Abstract

The frequency change of 100-year flood events is often determined by fitting extreme value distributions to annual maximum discharge from a historical base period. This study demonstrates that this approach may significantly bias the computed flood frequency change. An idealized experiment shows frequency bias exceeding 100% for a 50-year base period. Further analyses using Monte Carlo simulations, mathematical derivations, and hydrological model outputs reveal that bias magnitude inversely relates to base period length and is weakly influenced by the generalized extreme value distribution's shape parameter. The bias, persisting across different estimation methods, implies floods may exceed local defenses designed based on short historical records more often than expected, even without climate change. We introduce a frequency bias adjustment method, which significantly reduces the projected rise in global flood occurrence. This suggests a substantial part of the earlier projected increase in flood occurrence and impacts is not attributable to climate change.

Abstract

Electron fluxes in the keV energy range can cause significant spacecraft surface charging, which in turn can affect the functioning of spacecraft components. In this paper, the geostationary electron fluxes measured by the satellites GOES 13-18 in the energy range 2–200 keV are analyzed in order to look for their dependence on solar wind conditions. For this purpose, a range of solar wind parameters, IMF parameters and geomagnetic indices are examined, to look for the parameters which most significantly affect the electron flux. The analysis includes fluxes in the lower energy range of 2–40 keV, measured by GOES 16-18, which have not been analyzed before. The measured electron fluxes are averaged over all directions, and high-pass filtered to isolate variations shorter than 1 month. The analysis concentrates of the dawn sector, where variations are largest. A number of solar wind parameters and magnetic indices are analyzed concurrently with the electron flux data, to look for the most significant correlations between them. Most parameters have the highest correlation with electron flux when shifted in time by a certain delay. In addition to the different solar wind parameters and magnetic indices, combinations of different parameters are also examined for their best correlation with the electron flux. The most significant driving parameters are found to be the auroral electrojet index, combined with either the solar wind plasma velocity or the plasma density. The relative contribution of each of these parameters depends on electron energy, and differs between periods of high and low flux.

Abstract

The use of seismic catalogs enhanced through advanced detection techniques improves the understanding of earthquake processes by illuminating the geometry and mechanics of fault systems. In this study, we performed accurate hypocentral locations, source parameters estimation and stress release modeling from catalogs of microseismic sequences nucleating in the complex normal fault system of the Southern Apennines (Italy). The application of advanced location techniques resulted in the relocation of ∼30% of the earthquakes in the enhanced catalogs, with hypocenters clearly identifying local patches on kilometer-scale structures that feature consistent orientation with the main faults of the area. When mapping the stress change on the fault plane, the inter-event distance compared to the size of the events suggests that the dominant triggering mechanism within the sequences is static stress transfer. The distribution of events is not isotropic but dominantly aligned along the dip direction. These slip-dominated lineations could be associated with striations related to fault roughness and could map the boundary between locked and creeping domains in Apulian platform and basement.

Abstract

Relative permeability is a key parameter for characterizing the multiphase flow dynamics in porous media at macroscopic scale while it can be significantly impacted by wettability. Recently, it has been reported in microfluidic experiments that wettability is dependent on the pore size (Van Rooijen et al., 2022). To investigate the effect of pore-size-dependent wettability on relative permeability, we propose a theoretical framework informed by digital core samples to quantify the deviation of relative permeability curves due to wettability change. We find that the significance of impact is highly dependent on two factors: (i) the function between contact angle and pore size (ii) overall pore size distribution. Under linear function, this impact can be significant for tight porous media with a maximum deviation of 1,000%.

Abstract

The spectacular visual displays from the aurora come from curtains of excited atoms and molecules, impacted by energetic charged particles. These particles are accelerated from great distances in Earth's magnetotail, causing them to precipitate into the ionosphere. Energetic particle precipitation is associated with currents that generate electric fields, and the end result is a dissipation of the hundreds of gigawatts to terrawatts of energy injected into Earth's atmosphere during geomagnetic storms. While much is known about how the aurora dissipates energy through Joule heating, little is known about how it does so via small-scale plasma turbulence. Here we show the first set of combined radar and optical images that track the position of this turbulence, relative to particle precipitation, with high spatial precision. During two geomagnetic storms occurring in 2021, we unambiguously show that small-scale turbulence (several meters) is preferentially created on the edges of auroral forms. We find that turbulence appears both poleward and equatorward of auroral forms, as well as being nestled between auroral forms in the north-south direction. These measurements make it clear that small scale auroral plasma turbulence is an integral part of the electrical current system created by the aurora, in the sense that turbulent transport around auroral forms enhances ionospheric energy deposition through Joule heating while at the same time reducing the average strength of the electric field.

Abstract

The crustal material from central Tibet is extruded in a clockwise direction along a belt on the eastern plateau. In the inner arc region of the escaping belt, the absence of key and detailed 3-D crustal resistivity structure hinders a comprehensive understanding of the dynamic processes of material escape in both the inner and outer arc regions. Here, we conducted magnetotelluric imaging and obtained the crustal 3-D resistivity structure in Sanjiang area. The results reveal the presence of two branched high-conductivity anomaly belts in the middle crust. Combining with other resistivity and velocity models, we speculated that crustal flow is widely distributed in the middle crust of the Chuan-Dian block. The crustal flow in the Sanjiang area may connect to that in the outer arc region. The crustal flow in the eastern part is extensively continuous, causing decoupling and flowing that facilitate intense horizontal movements and deformation of the upper crust. In the western Sanjiang area, the upper crust is strongly coupled with the lithosphere beneath the decoupling layer, resulting in weaker horizontal deformation, and fewer larger earthquakes. The initially weak crustal zone in the eastern Tibet may have been caused by uplift of hot mantle material. The high heat flow associated with uplift of hot mantle material and the frictional heating caused by the horizontal movement of weakly coupled crust further facilitated the formation of crustal flow in the outer arc region. The branched crustal flow in the Sanjiang area may have flowed from the outer arc region of the escaping belt.

Abstract

Ultra-low frequency (ULF) waves contribute significantly to the dynamic evolution of Earth's magnetosphere by accelerating and transporting charged particles within a wide energy range. A substantial excitation mechanism of these waves is their drift-bounce resonant interactions with magnetospheric particles. Here, we extend the conventional drift-bounce resonance theory to formulate the nonlinear particle trapping in the ULF wave-carried potential well, which can be approximately described by a pendulum equation. We also predict the observable signatures of the nonlinear drift-bounce resonance, and compare them with spacecraft observations. We further discuss potential drivers of the pendulum including the convection electric field and the magnetospheric dayside compression, which lead to additional particle acceleration or deceleration depending on magnetic longitude. These drivers indicate preferred regions for nonlinear ULF wave growth, which are consistent with previous statistical studies.

Abstract

Observations of coherent scatter from patchy sporadic E layers in the subauroral zone made with a 30-MHz coherent scatter radar imager are presented. The quasiperiodic (QP) echoes are similar to what has been observed at middle latitudes but with some differences. The echoes arise from bands of scatterers aligned mainly northwest to southeast and propagating to the southwest. A notable difference from observations at middle latitudes is the appearance of secondary irregularities or braids oriented obliquely to the primary bands and propagating mainly northward along them. We present a spectral simulation of the patchy layers that describes neutral atmospheric dynamics with the incompressible Navier Stokes equations and plasma dynamics with an extended MHD model. The simulation is initialized with turning shears in the form of an Ekman spiral. Ekman-type instability deforms the sporadic E layer through compressible and incompressible motion. The layer ultimately exhibits both the QP bands and the braids, consequences mainly of primary and secondary neutral dynamic instability. Vorticity due to dynamic instability is an important source of structuring in the sporadic E layer.

Abstract

The magnetotail current sheet plays a key role in the dynamics of Earth's magnetosphere. Specifically, the formation and subsequent reconnection of thin (ion-gyroscale) current sheets are critical components of magnetospheric substorms. However, the precise mechanisms governing the configuration and distribution of current density in these thin current sheets remain elusive. By analyzing a data set consisting of 453 thin current sheet crossings observed by the Acceleration, Reconnection, Turbulence and Electrodynamics of Moon's Interaction with the Sun (ARTEMIS) mission, we explore the statistical properties of the ion and electron pressures and current densities, J i and J e , in the spacecraft rest frame. Using magnetotail flapping and magnetic field measurements to estimate the total current density, J 0, we find that it agrees well with the sum of those from direct ion and electron measurements, J i  + J e , respectively. In 65% of thin current sheets, electrons were found to dominate the contribution to the total current density in the spacecraft frame, with a typical dawnward drift velocity of ≳100 km/s. Diamagnetic drifts of electrons and ions estimated from their respective vertical pressure profiles (along the current sheet normal) reveal that the gradient of electron pressure alone cannot fully account for the observed high values of J e /J i . Counter-intuitively, for most (52% of) thin current sheets the electron vertical pressure profile is wider than the ion pressure profile, again suggesting that electron diamagnetism is an insufficient contributor to the current density at such sheets. These findings suggest the presence of a significant E × B dawnward drift that the electrons can fully acquire but ions cannot, being partially unmagnetized. We compare our results with those previously reported for the near-Earth magnetotail and discuss them in the context of magnetotail current sheet modeling.

Abstract

Using an automated novel approach we conduct a reproducible systematic survey of electromagnetic ion cyclotron wave activity detected by Van Allen Probe B during the time period 2013 January 1–2019 July 15. We identify approximately 500 hr of EMIC wave activity, an occurrence rate of ∼ 0.85%. Accounting for satellite dwell time, we find that EMIC waves preferentially occur on the dayside, between 9 and 15 magnetic local time. This is true for both the H + and He + wavebands. Higher amplitude waves are found at higher values of L shell, while weaker waves occur at low L. The highest amplitudes are concentrated at high L near dawn and dusk. It is also found that EMIC wave occurrence is enhanced during periods of strong geomagnetic activity, with an occurrence rate of 2.7%. During storm times, waves preferentially occur in the afternoon and early evening sectors. The full list of electromagnetic ion cyclotron wave detection times and their properties is made publicly available to the community. This provides a reference catalog for comparison with other magnetospheric phenomena and other wave databases.

Abstract

Proteinaceous matter (PrM) is a substantial component of bioaerosols. Although numerous studies have examined the characteristics and sources of PrM in the atmosphere, its interactions with atmospheric oxidants remain uncertain. A 1-year observation of PrM characteristics in PM2.5 was performed in both urban Nanchang (eastern China) and suburban Guiyang (southwestern China), respectively. Glycine was the dominant free amino acid (FAA) species in urban Nanchang. In contrast, proline dominated both total free amino acids (FAAs) and total combined amino acids (CAAs) in suburban Guiyang. We found that oxidative degradation can significantly promote the release of FAAs, especially glycine, from CAAs in Nanchang. The controlled experiment on protein oxidation by hydroxyl radical suggested that the contribution of free glycine to the total FAA fraction tended to increase during the oxidative degradation of CAAs, supporting the predominance of glycine in FAAs in Nanchang and most previous observations. The composition of FAAs was mainly influenced by primary sources in suburban Guiyang with weak atmospheric degradation of PrM. These results suggest that the degradation of aerosol PrM by atmospheric oxidants can be responsible for the difference in FAA composition between the biosphere and the atmosphere, and also imply that the oxidative degradation of aerosol PrM may be a potential source of secondary organic nitrogen compounds in aerosols. Thus, this study can improve the current understanding of the composition characteristics of PrM in the biosphere and the atmosphere, as well as the liquid phase reactions of proteinaceous compounds with atmospheric oxidants.

Abstract

Modeling atmospheric black carbon (BC) aerosol optical properties remains largely uncertain due to their complex mixing states, nonsphericity, and heterogeneity of coating distribution. Although there exist numerical models with realistic BC morphologies, these models are mostly limited to particle-scale studies and have not been coupled to large-scale atmospheric or climate models. In this study, a multidimensional parameterization scheme is developed by an accurate numerical algorithm for BC optical property calculation in global climate models, by incorporating their mixing state and nonspherical structure as well as heterogeneous coating distribution. The scheme was coupled and tested with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) by a weighted averaging algorithm for individual particles and integration for particle ensembles. The simulation results indicate that BC morphology has a limited influence on the aerosol absorption cross section (C abs), and the differences in C abs between irregularly coated fractal aggregates and ideal core-shell spherical (CS) counterparts are ∼3% on average. However, the relative positions between the BC core and coating parts may introduce C abs variations of up to 69% as compared with the CS results. The BC mixing state introduce ∼20% relative variations in the global average aerosol absorption optical depth, which is comparable to that of heterogeneity of coating distribution and three times greater than that of particle nonsphericity. Furthermore, the normalized mean biases of modeled single scattering coalbedo (1−SSA, i.e., the ratio of absorption to extinction) compared to those observed in BC-rich regions are reduced by 20%∼80% when applying our new parameterization in CAM6.

Abstract

The Bay of Bengal summer monsoon (BOBSM) is the most prominent branch of the Asian summer monsoon system, which exhibits complex interannual variability. While previous studies have focused on the onset conditions of the BOBSM, less attention has been paid to the retreat of the BOBSM. In this study, we propose an index to measure BOBSM retreat, based on the mean zonal wind field at 850 hPa during the summer-to-winter monsoon transitions. By analyzing the climatic characteristics and interannual variability of the BOBSM retreat using this index, we find that BOBSM retreat exhibits significant interannual variability, which is closely related to the occurrence of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. Statistically, when a positive IOD event takes place in the boreal autumn season, the retreat of the summer monsoon occurs earlier correspondingly. Conversely, the retreat is delayed when a negative IOD event occurs.

Abstract

The source of dust in the global atmosphere is an important factor to better understand the role of dust aerosols in the climate system. However, it is a difficult task to attribute the airborne dust over the remote land and ocean regions to their origins since dust from various sources are mixed during long-range transport. Recently, a multi-model experiment, namely the AeroCom-III Dust Source Attribution (DUSA), has been conducted to estimate the relative contribution of dust in various locations from different sources with tagged simulations from seven participating global models. The BASE run and a series of runs with nine tagged regions were made to estimate the contribution of dust emitted in East- and West-Africa, Middle East, Central- and East-Asia, North America, the Southern Hemisphere, and the prominent dust hot spots of the Bodélé and Taklimakan Deserts. The models generally agree in large scale mean dust distributions, however models show large diversity in dust source attribution. The inter-model differences are significant with the global model dust diversity in 30%–50%, but the differences in regional and seasonal scales are even larger. The multi-model analysis estimates that North Africa contributes 60% of global atmospheric dust loading, followed by Middle East and Central Asia sources (24%). Southern hemispheric sources account for 10% of global dust loading, however it contributes more than 70% of dust over the Southern Hemisphere. The study provides quantitative estimates of the impact of dust emitted from different source regions on the globe and various receptor regions including remote land, ocean, and the polar regions synthesized from the seven models.

Abstract

City size is a primary determinant of the urban heat island (UHI) intensity, with its effects further nuanced by the urban form. But how to factor in the urban form into the UHI assessment remains unresolved. We propose an every-pair-interaction model that meaningfully incorporates urban size and fractal dimension to characterize the UHI intensity. Regression on the summertime surface UHI intensity of 5,000 European cities shows that the model outperforms the simple linear combination of logarithmic size and fractal dimension. Subject to the interplay between the range of the every-pair interaction and the urban fractal shape, the model also represents a generalization as it includes power-law, logarithmic, and saturating size dependence of UHI—all three possibilities have been reported empirically in the literature. Our theoretical framework indicates that the surface UHI intensity saturates with urban size, opening up new research perspectives around UHI intensity.

Abstract

An obvious long-term drying trend in recent early springs (February–March–April) is observed over southeastern China (SEC). Here, we attribute this drying to the weakened subtropical westerlies and deflected by the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Climatologically, the low-level southwesterlies at the southeastern margin of the TP, a branch of the upstream subtropical westerly jet deflected by the TP terrain, bring water vapor to SEC and the southerlies move upward over SEC mainly through isentropic gliding mechanism, inducing persistent precipitation in early spring. However, the subtropical westerlies weakened significantly in recent decades due potentially to the decreased Eurasian snow cover. Consequently, an easterly trend appears along the southern margin of the TP with anomalous northeasterlies over SEC. These northeasterlies suppress both moisture supply and upward motions over SEC, and reduce regional early spring precipitation. Our results highlight the interaction between the TP terrain and the weakened subtropical westerlies that leads to the drying SEC.

Abstract

Based on observations from the Magnetospheric Multiscale mission, this study presents an analysis of a short large-amplitude magnetic structures (SLAMS) event with simultaneous occurrence of low- and high-frequency magnetosonic whistler waves. It was found that low-frequency magnetosonic whistler waves around the lower-hybrid frequency emerge in the presence of solar wind ions and local low-energy ions in the trailing region of SLAMS. Additionally, counter-propagating whistler waves (the high-frequency branch of the magnetosonic whistler wave) are observed within SLAMS, coinciding with a perpendicular temperature anisotropy in the electron population. Instability analyses demonstrate that these low-frequency waves are induced by the two-stream instability associated with the cross-field relative velocity between low-energy ions and electrons, while whistler waves are locally generated by the whistler anisotropy instability. Our results shed light on the impact of SLAMS on particle and wave dynamics in the terrestrial foreshock.

Abstract

Post-collisional potassic-ultrapotassic rocks can provide key clues to the change of the recycled material type and/or tectonic transition in subduction-related zones. Despite continental materials widely recognized in their sources, it remains unclear whether such continental materials were contributed by former oceanic subduction or recent continental subduction. Here we address this issue by systematically investigating previously reported and our new chemical and Sr–Nd–Pb isotopic compositions of the post-collisional K-rich rocks in Southeast Tibet. Kink-like compositional variations provide solid evidence for a primary control of fractional crystallization on the evolution of these K-rich magmas. Their primary melts are demonstrated to have been produced by partial melting of phlogopite-bearing peridotites in subcontinental lithospheric mantle (SCLM). The trace element and Sr–Nd–Pb isotopic signatures argue against involvement of the deeply subducted Indian continent but suggest a great contribution from sediments in oceanic slabs. A thinned (∼70–100 km) and hot (∼55–70 mW/m2) lithosphere is also unraveled beneath Southeast Tibet during the potassic-ultrapotassic magmatism. Together with geophysical data, here we suggest a two-stage geodynamic model for post-collisional potassic-ultrapotassic magmatism in Southeast Tibet: (a) Before the Indian-Asia continental collision, phlogopite/K-richterite-bearing SCLM sources were formed through oceanic subduction-related metasomatism; (b) After the Indian-Asia continental collision, asthenosphere upwelling induced by post-collisional tectonic extension or deep subduction of the Indian continental slab caused lithospheric thinning, partial melting of pre-existing phlogopite/K-richterite-rich SCLM and thus K-rich magmatism. This study provides new insights into the role of oceanic subduction and continental collision in post-collisional potassic-ultrapotassic magmatism.