JGR–Atmospheres

Terrestrial hydrology is altered by fires, particularly in snow-dominated catchments. However, fire impacts on catchment hydrology are often neglected from land surface model (LSM) simulations. Western U.S. wildfire activity has been increasing in recent decades and is projected to continue increasing over at least the next three decades, and thus it is important to evaluate if neglecting fire impacts in operational land surface models (LSMs) is a significant error source that has a noticeable signal among other sources of uncertainty. We evaluate a widely used state-of-the-art LSM (Noah-MP) in runoff and snowpack simulations at two representative fire-affected snow-dominated catchments in the Pacific Northwest: Andrew's Creek in Washington and Johnson Creek in Idaho. These two catchments are selected across all western U.S. fire-affected catchments because they are snow-dominated and experienced more than 50% burning in a single fire event with minimal burning outside of this event, which allows analyses of distinct pre- and post-fire periods. There are statistically significant shifts in model skills from pre-to post-fire years in simulating runoff and snowpack. At both study catchments, simulations miss enhancements in early-spring runoff and annual runoff efficiency during post-fire years, resulting in persistent underestimates of annual runoff anomalies throughout the 12-year post-fire analysis periods. Enhanced post-fire snow accumulation and melt contributes to observed but unmodeled increases of spring runoff and annual runoff efficiency at these catchments. Informing simulations with satellite observed land cover classifications, leaf area index, and green fraction do not consistently improve the model ability to simulate hydrologic responses to fire disturbances.

Extending across seven countries, the Alps represent an important element for climate and atmospheric circulation in Central Europe. Its complex topography affects processes on different scales within the atmospheric system. This is of major relevance for the decadal trends in surface solar radiation (SSR), also known as periods of global dimming and brightening (GDB). In this study we analyzed data from 38 stations in and around the Swiss and Austrian Alps, over a period ranging from the 1980s up to the 2020s, with the aim of characterizing the spatio-temporal variations of the GDB and understanding the causes for such trends in this region. Our results show a different behavior in the SSR decadal trends in the western part of the Alps in comparison to the eastern part. Our results also suggest a remarkable difference between the causes of such trends at the stations at low altitudes in comparison to the stations at higher altitudes. Significant contributions from changes in cloud optical depth and surface albedo to the SSR decadal trends at high elevation sites were also found, in contrast to a substantial clear-sky forcing that strongly dominates at low elevations. Results from previous literature and available data suggest that cloud optical depth changes at high altitudes and clear-sky forcing at low altitudes could be associated with the indirect and direct aerosol effects, respectively, due to differing pollution levels at low and high elevation sites.

Convergence zones (CZs) are known drivers of precipitation regimes from regional to planetary scales. However, there is a scarcity of accounts of the contribution of CZs to the global precipitation. In this study, we build upon a recently developed Lagrangian diagnostic to attribute precipitation to CZ events in observations and simulations submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). Observed CZs are identified using ERA5 reanalysis wind and attributed precipitation from observational products based on satellite estimates and rain gauges. We estimate that approximately 54% (51%–59%, depending on the precipitation product) of global precipitation falls over CZs; in some regions, such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and subtropical monsoon regions, this proportion is greater than 60%. All CMIP6 simulations analyzed here attribute about 10% more precipitation to CZ events than what the observations suggest. To investigate this overestimation, we decompose the precipitation error in terms of frequency and intensity of CZ precipitation and find that all models present a substantial positive bias in the frequency of CZ precipitation, suggesting that climate models trigger precipitation too easily in regions of airmass confluence; such positive frequency biases in CZ precipitation help explaining well-known biases in climate models, such as the double-ITCZ in the Pacific. We also find that models with better mass conservation present an apportionment of CZ precipitation closest to the observational estimates, demonstrating the relevance of mass conservation in advection schemes.

No abstract is available for this article.

Future space missions dedicated to measuring CO2 on a global scale can make advantageous use of the O2 band at 1.27 μm to retrieve the air column. The 1.27 μm band is close to the CO2 absorption bands at 1.6 and 2.0 μm, which allows a better transfer of the aerosol properties than with the usual O2 band at 0.76 μm. However, the 1.27 μm band is polluted by the spontaneous dayglow of the excited state O2 (1∆), which must be removed from the observed signal. We investigate here our quantitative understanding of the O2(1∆) dayglow with a chemistry-transport model. We show that the previously reported −13% deficit in O2(1∆) dayglow calculated with the same model is essentially due a −20% to −30% ozone deficit between 45 and 60 km. We find that this ozone deficit is due to excessively high temperatures (+15 K) of the meteorological analyses used to drive the model in the mesosphere. The use of lower analyzed temperatures (ERA5), in better agreement with the observations, slows down the hydrogen-catalyzed and Chapman ozone loss cycles. This effect leads to an almost total elimination of the ozone and O2(1∆) deficits in the lower mesosphere. Once integrated vertically to simulate a nadir measurement, the deficit in modeled O2(1∆) brightness is reduced to −4.2 ± 2.8%. This illustrates the need for accurate mesospheric temperatures for a priori estimations of the O2(1∆) brightness in algorithms using the 1.27 μm band.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the most dominant natural mode of variability in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere (SH). However, both the sign and magnitude of the feedbacks from the diabatic processes, especially those associated with clouds, onto the SAM remain elusive. By applying the cloud locking technique to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) atmosphere model, this study isolates the positive feedback from the cloud radiative effect (CRE) to the SAM. Feedback analysis based on a wave activity-zonal momentum interaction framework corroborates this weak but positive feedback. While the magnitude of the CRE feedback appears to be secondary compared to the feedbacks from the dry and other diabatic processes, the indirect CRE effects through the interaction with other dynamical and thermodynamical processes appear to play as important a role as the direct CRE in the life cycle of the SAM. The cross-EOF analysis further reveals the obstructive effect of the interactive CRE on the propagation mode of the SH zonal wind directly through the CRE wave source and/or indirectly through modulating other diabatic processes. As a result, the propagation mode becomes more persistent and the SAM it represents becomes more predictable when the interactive CRE is disabled by cloud locking. Future efforts on inter-model comparisons of CRE-denial experiments are important to build consensus on the dynamical feedback of CRE.

The hour-to-hour variability of 388 nm aerosol optical depth (AOD) and single scattering albedo (SSA) derived from near UV observations by the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) on the Deep Space Climate Observatory has been evaluated at multiple locations around the world. AOD retrievals by the EPIC near UV algorithm (EPICAERUV) have been compared to ground based AOD measurements at 16 Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) stations representative of the most commonly observed aerosol types over geographic regions in three continents. Obtained results show that, in general, the EPICAERUV algorithm reproduces closely the hour-to-hour AOD variability reported by AERONET ground-truth observations. Although most sites in the analysis show high correlation between the AOD hourly measurements by the ground-based and space-borne measuring techniques. Best algorithm performance is observed in the presence of carbonaceous and desert dust aerosols. The diurnal cycle of the retrieved SSA product was also analyzed. Although, a direct comparison of hourly EPICAERUV retrievals to equivalent ground-based observations was not possible, the satellite result shows that diurnal SSA variability as large as 0.05 can be observed mostly associated with carbonaceous aerosols. EPICAERUV observed diurnal cycle of retrieved AOD on a regional basis was examined for the unusually active seasons of aerosol production of Saharan desert dust aerosols in 2020, and during the 2023 Canadian wildfires. Results presented in this study confirm the EPIC near UV aerosol product is well suited for observing diurnal variability of aerosols and, therefore, it is an important resource for climate and air quality studies.

We observed five clusters of upper-level compact intracloud discharges (CIDs) moving positive charge up over land and over water in Florida. The clusters each contained 3 to 6 CIDs, and the overall cluster duration ranged from 27 to 58 s. On average, the CIDs in a given cluster occurred 11 s apart and were separated by a 3D distance of about 1.5 km. All the clustered CIDs were located above the tropopause and were likely associated with convective surges that penetrated the stratosphere. The average periodicity of CID occurrence within a cluster (every 11 s) was comparable to the periodicity at which the average cluster area is expected to be bombarded by ≥1016 eV cosmic-ray particles (every 5 s). Each of such energetic particles gives rise to a cosmic ray shower (CRS) and, in the presence of sufficiently strong electric field over a sufficiently large distance, to a relativistic runaway electron avalanche (RREA). We infer that each of our upper-level CIDs is likely to be caused by a CRS-RREA traversing, at nearly the speed of light, the electrified overshooting convective surge and triggering, within a few microseconds, a multitude of streamer flashes along its path, over a distance of the order of hundreds of meters (as per the mechanism recently proposed for lightning initiation by Kostinskiy et al., 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033191). The upper-level CID clustering was likely made possible by the recurring action of energetic cosmic rays and the rapid recovery of the negative screening charge layer at stratospheric altitudes.

Precipitation in the Southern Plains of the United States is relatively well depicted by the Community Earth System Model (CESM). However, despite its ability to capture seasonal mean precipitation anomalies, CESM consistently underestimates extreme pluvial and drought events, rendering it an insufficient tool for extending simulation lead times for exceptional events, such as the abnormally dry May 2011, which helped drive Texas into its worst period of drought in more than a century, and the abnormally wet May 2015, which led to widespread flooding in that state. Ensemble-based regional climate experiments are completed for the two extreme years using Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and downscaled from CESM. WRF simulations are at convection-permitting grid resolution for improved physical representation of simulated precipitation over the Southern Great Plains. By integrating convection-permitting models (CPMs) into each individual member of a CESM ocean data assimilation ensemble, this study demonstrates that high-resolution dynamical downscaling can improve model skillfulness at capturing these two events and is thus a potentially useful tool for forecasting extremely high and extremely low precipitation events at subseasonal or even seasonal lead times.

The surface temperature-mediated change in cloud properties, referred to as the cloud feedback, continues to dominate the uncertainty in climate projections. A larger number of contemporary global climate models (GCMs) project a higher degree of warming than the previous generation of GCMs. This greater projected warming has been attributed to a less negative cloud feedback in the Southern Ocean. Here, we apply a novel “double decomposition method” that employs the “cloud radiative kernel” and “cloud regime” concepts, to two data sets of satellite observations to decompose the interannual cloud feedback into contributions arising from changes within and shifts between cloud morphologies. Our results show that contributions from the latter to the cloud feedback are large for certain regimes. We then focus on interpreting how both changes within and between cloud morphologies impact the shortwave cloud optical depth feedback over the Southern Ocean in light of additional observations. Results from the former cloud morphological changes reveal the importance of the wind response to warming increases low- and mid-level cloud optical thickness in the same region. Results from the latter cloud morphological changes reveal that a general shift from thick storm-track clouds to thinner oceanic low-level clouds contributes to a positive feedback over the Southern Ocean that is offset by shifts from thinner broken clouds to thicker mid- and low-level clouds. Our novel analysis can be applied to evaluate GCMs and potentially diagnose shortcomings pertaining to their physical parameterizations of particular cloud morphologies.

Temperature measurements by zenith-pointing ground-based Rayleigh lidars are often used to detect middle atmospheric gravity waves. In time-height diagrams of temperature perturbations, stationary mountain waves are identifiable by horizontal phase lines. Vertically tilted phase lines, on the other hand, indicate that the wave source or the propagation conditions are transient. Idealized numerical simulations illustrate that and how a wave source moving in the direction of the mean wind entails upward-tilted phase lines. The inclination angle depends on the horizontal wavelength and the wave source’s propagation speed. On this basis, the goal is to identify and characterize non-orographic gravity waves (NOGWs) from propagating sources, for example, upper-level jet/front systems, in simulated lidar observations and actual Rayleigh lidar measurements. Compositions of selected atmospheric variables from a meteorological forecast or reanalysis are thoughtfully combined to associate NOGWs with processes in the troposphere and stratosphere. For a virtual observation over the Southern Ocean, upward-tilted phase lines indeed dominate the time-height diagram during the passage of an upper-level trough. The example also emphasizes that temporal filtering of temperature measurements is appropriate for NOGWs, especially in the presence of a strong polar night jet that implies large vertical wavelengths. During two selected observational periods of the COmpact Rayleigh Autonomous Lidar (CORAL) in the lee of the southern Andes, upward-tilted phase lines are mainly associated with mountain waves and transient background wind conditions. One nighttime measurement by CORAL coincides with the passage of an upper-level trough, but large-amplitude mountain waves superpose the small-amplitude NOGWs in the middle atmosphere.

In this study, a process-based lake model is used to investigate the influence of climate change on the thermodynamics of 30 large lakes over Tibetan Plateau (TP). The lake model was driven by the atmospheric forcing derived from the bias-corrected projections of three global climate models in the twenty-first century under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The hindcasts during 2000–2014 can reasonably capture the seasonality and magnitude of satellite retrieved lake surface temperature (LST). Future projections during 2015–2100 suggest a widespread increased LST, declined ice cover, and prolonged stratification, with the severity of changes in line with the climate driver shifts under different SSPs. Under the scenario with the highest level of anthropogenic radiative forcing (SSP5-8.5), the end-of-century (2086–2100) changes of LST, ice thickness, and stratification duration averaged across all studied lakes reach 4.90°C, −0.43 m, and 65.46 days, respectively. Note that the positive ice-albedo feedback can cause excess lake warming by accelerating ice break-up (30.07 days earlier) and stratification onset (46.83 days earlier). By the end of this century, more frequent, multi-seasonal thermal extremes are anticipated to push nearly half of the studied lakes into a permanent heatwave state. Together with the remarkable LST increase and winter ice loss, the lakes will mix less frequently and may shift from a dimictic to warm monomict mixing regime. Hopefully, the irreversible thermal changes can be avoided if the anthropogenic radiative forcing is controlled within the envelope outlined by the stringent climate mitigation scenario SSP1-2.6.

The South China coast (SCC) experiences frequent heavy rainfall during the warm season (May–September). Objective classification analysis on 925-hPa geopotential height shows that the majority of warm-season precipitation (>80%) occurs under three typical synoptic patterns: the southerly monsoon pattern (P1), the southwesterly monsoon pattern (P2), and the low-level vortex pattern (P3). Using 20 years of satellite observations and cloud tracking, this study highlights that mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) play a pivotal role in generating precipitation under all three synoptic patterns, while the initiation and rainfall characteristics of MCSs are strongly modulated by the background synoptic circulations. The diurnal MCS precipitation under P1 and P2 is predominantly influenced by land-sea breeze circulation, which is characterized by a morning offshore propagation and an afternoon onshore propagation. The rainfall propagation speeds, however, are strongly modulated by the prevailing low-level monsoonal flows. Under P3, MCS precipitation initiates near the coast around midnight and then propagates offshore, merging with the widespread offshore precipitation. The analysis also shows that the majority of MCSs contributing to SCC warm-season precipitation were locally initiated. This underscores the critical role of locally initiated MCSs in driving the SCC precipitation characteristics, as opposed to propagating MCSs. Statistical correlation analysis further indicates that the precipitation area and intensity of locally initiated MCSs are closely related to the lower-tropospheric moisture transport and the convective available potential energy over the upstream South China Sea, and the deep-layer wind shear (from surface to 400-hPa) over the SCC.

During atmospheric river (AR) landfalls on the Antarctic ice sheet, the high waviness of the circumpolar polar jet stream allows for subtropical air masses to be advected toward the Antarctic coastline. These rare but high-impact AR events are highly consequential for the Antarctic mass balance; yet little is known about the various atmospheric dynamical components determining their life cycle. By using an AR detection algorithm to retrieve AR landfalls at Dumont d'Urville and non-AR analogs based on 700 hPa geopotential height, we examined what makes AR landfalls unique and studied the complete life cycle of ARs reaching Dumont d'Urville. ARs form in the mid-latitudes/subtropics in areas of high surface evaporation, likely in response to tropical deep convection anomalies. These convection anomalies likely lead to Rossby wave trains that help amplify the upper-tropospheric flow pattern. As the AR approaches Antarctica, condensation of isentropically lifted moisture causes latent heat release that—in conjunction with poleward warm air advection—induces geopotential height rises and anticyclonic upper-level potential vorticity tendencies downstream. As evidenced by a blocking index, these tendencies lead to enhanced ridging/blocking that persist beyond the AR landfall time, sustaining warm air advection onto the ice sheet. Finally, we demonstrate a connection between tropopause polar vortices and mid-latitude cyclogenesis in an AR case study. Overall, the non-AR analogs reveal that the amplified jet pattern observed during AR landfalls is a result of enhanced poleward moisture transport and associated diabatic heating which is likely impossible to replicate without strong moisture transport.

Surface wind divergence is largely modulated by the sea surface temperature (SST) gradient through vertical momentum mixing and pressure adjustment. Here, the two mechanisms affecting the coupling strength between SST gradient and surface wind divergence are examined during an atmospheric front passage in the Southern Ocean. This event is also recorded by an uncrewed surface vehicle (USV). The reanalysis product (ERA5) revealed that downward momentum mixing is the dominant mechanism on the daily time scale. The coupling strength during the day when the atmospheric front passed over declined by 75%, compared to the adjacent days. This implies that the atmospheric front can partially attenuate the SST gradient effect on the surface wind divergence. Furthermore, a decade-long statistic also showed a decreasing trend of SST-wind coupling when the atmospheric fronts occur more. Additionally, after removing the mesoscale weather variation, the USV observations showed a remarkable SST imprint on the atmospheric boundary layer in the oceanic submesoscale regime, which denotes the scale below the deformation radius (∼16 km). The submesoscale air-sea interaction processes also displayed decreased air-sea coupling strength during atmospheric front passage. This is possible as the vertical velocity induced by the atmospheric front can compensate for the daily averaged uprising vertical velocity due to surface wind convergence. This analysis indicates that the atmospheric front can diminish the coupling between the SST gradient and surface wind divergence, which contrasts the existing statistical results showing that atmospheric fronts tend to enhance such coupling.

During past glacial-interglacial cycles, the boreal summer insolation is the most crucial external forcing for climate change. However, the question of whether summer insolation is a key forcing on temperatures in the boreal tropics remains under debate, hampering our understanding of climate change at low latitudes. To shed further light on this issue, we performed a series of equilibrium simulations with the NorESM-L model over the past 425 ka. Our simulations show that in the boreal tropical monsoon region, the simulated annual temperature is anti-phased towards the boreal summer insolation. This antiphase relation is also supported by some available geological data. Additional diagnostic analyses reveal that the tropical warmth throughout the year is more reliant on winter temperatures than on summer temperatures. This stands in contrast to the situation in middle to high latitudes, particularly in the Mediterranean region. Further correlation analysis and spectrum analysis suggest that the annual temperature in boreal tropics is highly linked to local winter insolation. Our results highlight complex hydrothermal configurations in the boreal tropics, suggesting a decoupling of temperature and precipitation. Specifically, variations in annual temperature and precipitation in the boreal tropics are driven by distinct patterns of seasonal insolation. We deduce that the unique hydrothermal configurations in North Africa may have influenced the dispersal of early humans out of Africa.

Residential biomass burning significantly contributes to air pollution in developing countries. However, the microscopic properties of individual particles in their emissions have not been well understood. In this study, individual primary particles from 14 kinds of biomass fuels (including firewood, crop residue, and animal dung) were collected in laboratory and field measurements, and their morphology, composition and mixing state were acquired using transmission electron microscope. These results constitute a source profile database of individual primary particles from residential biomass burning. The database reveals that different types of biomass fuels exhibit different emission characteristics, that is, residential firewood burning mainly emits pure carbonaceous particles (including organic matter (OM) and soot particles), crop residue burning mainly emits K-containing particles (including OM-K, soot(-OM)-K, and K-rich particles), and animal dung burning mainly emits pure carbonaceous particles and K-containing particles. Moreover, our results indicate that the emission characteristics obtained from laboratory and field measurements are different. Field measurements conducted in two selected villages in North China Plain exhibit a higher presence of soot particles compared to laboratory measurements, owing to their higher combustion temperatures. In contrast, field measurements conducted in one selected village in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau contain less soot particles than those from laboratory measurements in plain areas, due to the deficient oxygen supply during combustion process in the high-altitude regions. These results warn us that the emission estimation from residential biomass burning should notice the large emission differences among different biomass types and between field and laboratory measurements.

This study examines the spatial distribution and temporal variations of low-cloud top over the subtropical northeast Pacific (NEP), using observations from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO). A comparison between CALIPSO observations and in-situ soundings reveals a distinct bimodal distribution of low-cloud tops, characterized by peaks near the inversion base and transition layer, corresponding to shallow cumulus clouds below the stratocumulus deck and boundary-layer decoupling phenomena. Climatologically, while traversing along a great circle from Los Angeles to Honolulu, the frequency of low cloud occurrence experiences a gradual reduction from 80% to 30%. Meanwhile, cloud top height increases from 0.6 to 1.6 km, and surface roughness varies from 50 to 300 m. This study marks the first presentation of long-term characteristics of low clouds over a vast, remote area, expanding beyond discrete field campaign observations. Accurately characterizing the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) including its depth and degree of decoupling, enables further investigation into the interannual variations of low clouds, using 14 years of CALIPSO observations. Significant interannual variability in areal fraction and vertical bimodality of low clouds emerges downstream of the anomalously cold water; increased cloud cover with weakened bimodality is associated with a shallow weakly decoupled MABL. This research emphasizes the need to consider the downstream effects in studying low cloud-sea surface temperature feedback within climate models.

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are clusters of thunderstorms that are important in Earth's water and energy cycle. Additionally, they are responsible for extreme events such as large hail, strong winds, and extreme precipitation. Automated object-based analyses that track MCSs have become popular since they allow us to identify and follow MCSs over their entire life cycle in a Lagrangian framework. This rise in popularity was accompanied by an increasing number of MCS tracking algorithms, however, little is known about how sensitive analyses are concerning the MCS tracker formulation. Here, we assess differences between six MCS tracking algorithms on South American MCS characteristics and evaluate MCSs in kilometer-scale simulations with observational-based MCSs over 3 years. All trackers are run with a common set of MCS classification criteria to isolate tracker formulation differences. The tracker formulation substantially impacts MCS characteristics such as frequency, size, duration, and contribution to total precipitation. The evaluation of simulated MCS characteristics is less sensitive to the tracker formulation and all trackers agree that the model can capture MCS characteristics well across different South American climate zones. Dominant sources of uncertainty are the segmentation of cloud systems in space and time and the treatment of how MCSs are linked in time. Our results highlight that comparing MCS analyses that use different tracking algorithms is challenging. We provide general guidelines on how MCS characteristics compare between trackers to facilitate a more robust assessment of MCS statistics in future studies.

Contributions of the resolved waves and parameterized gravity waves to changes in the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in a future simulation (2015–2100) under the SSP370 scenario are investigated using the Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2) with enhanced vertical resolution and are compared with those from four CESM2 historical simulations (1979–2014). The maximum QBO amplitude of the future simulation is 26.0 m s−1, which is slightly less than that of the historical simulations (27.4–29.3 m s−1). However, the QBO period in the future simulation is much shorter: 21.6 months in the early-future (2015–2050) and 12 months in the late-future (2065–2100) period, than in the historical simulations (23.5–30.9 months). The shortened QBO period in the future is primarily due to increases in both resolved wave forcing and parameterized gravity wave drag (GWD) in the stratosphere, with a more significant contribution by the GWD. As convective activity becomes stronger in the future simulation, the momentum flux of parameterized convective gravity waves at the cloud top increases, resulting in stronger GWD in the stratosphere. The increases in the magnitude of westward GWD dominate those of eastward GWD in the stratosphere. This is due to a significant increase in westward momentum flux in the troposphere, especially during the descending easterly QBO, and enhanced westerlies in the lowermost stratosphere, which introduces a westward anomaly. For the resolved waves, Kelvin wave forcing is a key contributor to increased eastward forcing in the future simulation, with relatively minor contributions by other equatorial planetary waves.