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Abstract

The Southern Alps experiences rapid bedrock uplift and intense surface processes like erosion and deglaciation. We quantify how the erosion and deglaciation contribute to the ongoing vertical motions using geophysical models. The erosional unloading uplift is found to be 0.5–1.5 mm/yr throughout the central Southern Alps, whereas the recent deglaciation may locally produce uplift up to 1–3 mm/yr. The estimated unloading uplift accounts for 10%–40% of the GNSS-observed uplift. After correcting the unloading uplift, the GNSS-observed uplift can be explained by about 4–6 mm/yr dip-slip motion on the Alpine fault, which is 10%–50% below previous geodetic estimates. Hence, unloading uplift must be evaluated when interpreting geodetic observations in tectonically active mountain ranges subjected to intense surface processes.

Abstract

Understanding the key drivers controlling rainfall stable isotope variations in inland tropical regions remains a global challenge. We present novel high-frequency isotope data (5–30 min intervals) to disentangle the evolution of six stratiform rainfall events (N = 112) during the passage of convective systems in inland Brazil (September 2019–June 2020). These systems produced stratiform rainfall of variable cloud features. Depleted stratiform events (δ18Oinitial ≤ −4.2‰ and δ18Omean ≤ −6.1‰) were characterized by cooler cloud-top temperatures (≤−38°C), larger areas (≥48 km2), higher liquid-ice ratios (≥3.1), and higher melting layer heights (≥3.8 km), compared to enriched stratiform events (δ18Oinitial ≥ −3.8‰ and δ18Omean ≥ −5.1‰). Cloud vertical structure variability was reflected in a wide range of δ18O temporal patterns and abrupt shifts in d-excess. Our findings provide a new perspective to the ongoing debate about isotopic variability and the partitioning of rainfall types across the tropics.

Implementation and assessment of a model including mixotrophs and the carbonate cycle (Eco3M_MIX-CarbOx v1.0) in a highly dynamic Mediterranean coastal environment (Bay of Marseille, France) – Part 2: Towards a better representation of total alkalinity when modeling the carbonate system and air–sea CO2 fluxes
Lucille Barré, Frédéric Diaz, Thibaut Wagener, Camille Mazoyer, Christophe Yohia, and Christel Pinazo
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5851–5882, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5851-2024, 2024
The carbonate system is typically studied using measurements, but modeling can contribute valuable insights. Using a biogeochemical model, we propose a new representation of total alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbon, pCO2, and pH in a highly dynamic Mediterranean coastal area, the Bay of Marseille, a useful addition to measurements. Through a detailed analysis of pCO2 and air–sea CO2 fluxes, we show that variations are strongly impacted by the hydrodynamic processes that affect the bay.

Updating the radiation infrastructure in MESSy (based on MESSy version 2.55)
Matthias Nützel, Laura Stecher, Patrick Jöckel, Franziska Winterstein, Martin Dameris, Michael Ponater, Phoebe Graf, and Markus Kunze
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5821–5849, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5821-2024, 2024
We extended the infrastructure of our modelling system to enable the use of an additional radiation scheme. After calibrating the model setups to the old and the new radiation scheme, we find that the simulation with the new scheme shows considerable improvements, e.g. concerning the cold-point temperature and stratospheric water vapour. Furthermore, perturbations of radiative fluxes associated with greenhouse gas changes, e.g. of methane, tend to be improved when the new scheme is employed.

“Pochva”: a new hydro-thermal process model in soil, snow, vegetation for application in atmosphere numerical models
Oxana Drofa
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-138,2024
Preprint under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This paper presents the result of many years of efforts of the author, who developed an original mathematical numerical model of heat and moisture exchange processes in soil, vegetation, snow. The author relied on her 30 years of research experience in atmospheric numerical modelling. The presented model is the fruit of research on physical processes at the surface-atmosphere interface and their numerical approximation and aims at improving numerical weather forecasting and climate simulations.

Abstract

The formation of Lau Basin records an extreme event of plate tectonics, with the associated Tonga trench exhibiting the fastest retreat in the world (16 cm/yr). Yet paleogeographic reconstructions suggest that seafloor spreading in the Lau Basin only initiated around 6 Ma. This kinematics is difficult to reconcile with our present understanding of how subduction drives plate motions. Using numerical models, we propose that eastward migration of the Lau Ridge concurrent with trench retreat explains both the narrow width and thickened crust of the Lau Basin. To match the slab geometry and basin width along the Tonga-Kermadec trench, our models suggest that fast trench retreat rate of 16 cm/yr might start ~15 Ma. Tonga slab rollback induced vigorous mantle flow underneath the South Fiji Basin which is driving the extension and thinning of the basin and contributing to its observed deeper bathymetry compared to neighboring basins.

Abstract

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Atlantic tripole sea surface temperature (SST_tri) are important modes in the atmosphere and ocean over the North Atlantic, respectively. The link between the two is well-known. However, this link weakened during 1980–2001, which is particularly pronounced in late winter and was not detected in early winter. This phenomenon has not been well revealed. The role of NAO in the above correlation changes was discussed. In late winter, a significant eastward shift (up to 20° longitude) of NAO south center during 1980–2001 was observed in both observation and CMIP6, accompanied by the eastward expansion of NAO north center. Spatial shift of the NAO forced the region of strong air-sea interactions to shift and resulting in the collapse of NAO-related SST_tri. These findings deepen our understanding of the NAO on the subseasonal scale.

Abstract

The solar wind interaction with planetary magnetospheres dictates the mechanism through which energy is transported across planetary systems. The magnetohydrodynamic plasma description suggests that solar wind conditions in the outer solar system encourage the magnetopause boundaries at Uranus and Neptune to be more Kelvin-Helmholtz unstable, however, no quantitative assessment has been performed. To characterize the viscous solar wind interaction at Uranus and Neptune, we create an analytical model to determine where Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities (KHIs) may form along their magnetopauses by searching for regions where the minimum condition for KHI formation is satisfied. We run the model at solstice and equinox for a range of Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) strengths, and rotation phases. We find minimal seasonal variation for low IMF strengths (B = 0.01 nT), with ∼70% of the magnetopause surface at Uranus and ∼80% at Neptune, enabling KHI formation. For periods of stronger IMF strength (B > 0.3 nT), KHIs were significantly suppressed. While KHIs depend on both the conditions inside the magnetopause boundary and the shocked solar wind IMF strength, we find that the IMF strength is the most significant criterion in determining whether or not KHIs are allowed to form at the magnetopause boundaries.

Abstract

Along a climate gradient in the Chilean coastal mountains, we investigated denudation rates using the meteoric cosmogenic nuclide 10Be and its ratio to stable 9Be, and chemical depletion fractions (CDFs) in bulk soil samples. We find that the fraction of 9Be released from bedrock is a sensitive indicator of weathering, similar to CDF. Meteoric 10Be decreases exponentially with depth, reflecting the reactive nature of this tracer. We also measured denudation rates by the well-understood in situ cosmogenic 10Be system on quartz. Assuming that both systems record the same denudation rate we calculated the depositional flux of meteoric 10Be for each study site. The flux agrees to that derived from atmospheric models in the mediterranean and humid areas. In contrast, in the arid and semi-arid areas, the calculated flux agrees with a precipitation-derived flux, indicating delivery of 10Be to be affected by small-scale climatic variations not reflected by current atmospheric models.

Abstract

In this paper, using a three-dimensional multifluid MHD model, we studied the effects of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) clock angle and the latitude position of the intense crustal magnetic field (ICMF) on the escape of ions O+, O2+ ${\mathrm{O}}_{\mathrm{2}}^{+}$, and CO2+ ${\mathrm{C}\mathrm{O}}_{\mathrm{2}}^{+}$ at Mars. The main results are as follows: (a) The IMF clock angle affects the ion escape at Mars. When the ICMF is on the dayside, the ion escape rate reaches a maximum at the IMF clock angles close to 60°–90° and a minimum at the IMF clock angles close to 120°–150°, because the ICMF can change the topology of the magnetic field and affect the interaction between the solar wind and Mars. The difference between the maximum and minimum ion escape rates due to the IMF clock angle can reach over 50%. (b) Compared with the −ESW hemisphere, the escape flux of O2+ ${\mathrm{O}}_{\mathrm{2}}^{+}$ and CO2+ ${\mathrm{C}\mathrm{O}}_{\mathrm{2}}^{+}$ in the +ESW hemisphere is more significant. However, O+ generally has a larger escape flux in the −ESW hemisphere. The different results in the ±ESW hemispheres might be due to the larger distribution of the hot oxygen corona, which changes the flow pattern of O+. (c) The latitude location of the ICMF can also affect the ion escape. When the ICMF is on the dayside, as the subsolar point varies from 25°S to 25°N, that is, the intense crustal magnetic field position keeps shifting southward, the ion escape rate shows a gradual increase.

Abstract

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) during the early boreal spring can trigger El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the following boreal winter. However, the future changes in the impact of the NTA on ENSO remain controversial. Here, we show distinct changes in the strength of the NTA−ENSO relationship due to global warming by comparing models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) 5 and CMIP6. The impact of the NTA on ENSO under greenhouse warming is notably enhanced in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5. A wetter mean state over the subtropical eastern North Pacific and increased oceanic sensitivity over the equatorial central Pacific are key factors that enhance the impact of the NTA SST on ENSO. Therefore, differences in the mean state under greenhouse warming between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models can modulate the strength of the NTA−ENSO relationship.

Abstract

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission provides a good opportunity to study fine-scale processes in the global ocean but whether it can detect balanced submesoscale eddies is uncertain due to the “contamination” by unbalanced inertial gravity waves. Here, based on concurrent observations from SWOT and a mooring array in the northwestern Pacific, we successfully captured two submesoscale cyclonic eddies with negative sea level anomalies (SLAs) in spring 2023. We find that the SLA amplitude and equivalent radius of the first (second) eddy are 2.5 cm and 16.0 km (2.0 cm and 18.8 km), respectively. For both eddies, their vertical scales are around 150 m and their horizontal velocities and Rossby numbers exceed 15.0 cm/s and 0.4, respectively. Further analysis suggests that similar submesoscale eddies can commonly occur in the northwestern Pacific and that SWOT is capable to detect larger submesoscale eddies with scales greater than ∼10 km.

Abstract

In this study, we evaluated the performance of machine learning (ML) models (XGBoost) in predicting low-cloud fraction (LCF), compared to two generations of the community atmospheric model (CAM5 and CAM6) and ERA5 reanalysis data, each having a different cloud scheme. ML models show a substantial enhancement in predicting LCF regarding root mean squared errors and correlation coefficients. The good performance is consistent across the full spectrums of atmospheric stability and large-scale vertical velocity. Employing an explainable ML approach, we revealed the importance of including the amount of available moisture in ML models for representing spatiotemporal variations in LCF in the midlatitudes. Also, ML models demonstrated marked improvement in capturing the LCF variations during the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition (SCT). This study suggests ML models' great potential to address the longstanding issues of “too few” low clouds and “too rapid” SCT in global climate models.

Abstract

The impact of land variables on temperature forecasts in atmospheric cycling is often underestimated or overlooked. This oversight primarily occurs due to the abundance of meteorological measurements available for assimilation and partly because soil states are assumed to be quickly reset by atmospheric forcing, such as precipitation, justifying no spin-ups or no updates of soil states during cycling. In this study, by updating soil moisture every 6 hr using different analysis data sets for May 2019, considerable discrepancies were found, highlighting large uncertainties in soil moisture analysis. Different soil moisture analyses produced systematically different temperature forecasts, with errors growing over cycles to be comparable to a typical error magnitude of 2-m temperature observations (∼2°K). This study demonstrates that temperature forecasts are significantly influenced by whether and how soil moisture is updated, not only near the surface but also up to the low-mid troposphere and throughout the cycles.

Abstract

Variations in southern African precipitation have a major impact on local communities, increasing climate-related risks and affecting water and food security, as well as natural ecosystems. However, future changes in southern African precipitation are uncertain, with climate models showing a wide range of responses from near-term projections (2020–2040) to the end of the 21st century (2080–2100). Here, we assess the uncertainty in southern African precipitation change using five Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation single model initial-condition large ensembles (30–50 ensemble members) and four emissions scenarios. We show that the main source of uncertainty in 21st Century projections of southern African precipitation is the internal climate variability. In addition, we find that differences between ensemble members in simulating future changes in the location of the Angola Low explain a large proportion (∼60%) of the uncertainty in precipitation change. Together, the internal variations in the large-scale circulation over the Pacific Ocean and the Angola Low explain ∼64% of the uncertainty in southern African precipitation change. We suggest that a better understanding of the future evolutions of the southern African precipitation may be achieved by understanding better the model's ability to simulate the Angola Low and its effects on precipitation.

Abstract

Interplanetary (IP) shocks are perturbations observed in the solar wind. IP shocks correlate well with solar activity, being more numerous during times of high sunspot numbers. Earth-bound IP shocks cause many space weather effects that are promptly observed in geospace and on the ground. Such effects can pose considerable threats to human assets in space and on the ground, including satellites in the upper atmosphere and power infrastructure. Thus, it is of great interest to the space weather community to (a) keep an accurate catalog of shocks observed near Earth, and (b) be able to forecast shock occurrence as a function of the solar cycle (SC). In this work, we use a supervised machine learning regression model to predict the number of shocks expected in SC25 using three previously published sunspot predictions for the same cycle. We predict shock counts to be around 275 ± 10, which is ∼47% higher than the shock occurrence in SC24 (187 ± 8), but still smaller than the shock occurrence in SC23 (343 ± 12). With the perspective of having more IP shocks on the horizon for SC25, we briefly discuss many opportunities in space weather research for the remainder years of SC25. The next decade or so will bring unprecedented opportunities for research and forecasting effects in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and on the ground. As a result, we predict SC25 will offer excellent opportunities for shock occurrences and data availability for conducting space weather research and forecasting.

No abstract is available for this article.

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of sea spray on extreme precipitation forecast in Beijing of China between 28 July and 2 August 2023 as a case test. In this case, fully coupled model increased upward moisture in the Bohai and Yellow Seas and increased accumulated rainfall by 21% in North China. For the extreme precipitation events with the 5-day accumulated precipitation exceeding 500 mm, the atmosphere-only model did not forecast the events; the coupled model without sea spray performed well with the 0.29 threat score (TS) and 88 mm root mean square error (RMSE); in the fully coupled model, the effects of sea spray increased atmospheric instability, which increased the precipitation around Beijing and yielded a more accurate forecast with the 0.37 TS and 65 mm RMSE. This paper suggests a scientific clue to improve numerical simulation for extreme rainfall events, however, more cases are still needed for statistical evaluation.

Abstract

Although solar wind-driven convection is expected to dominate magnetospheric circulation at Mercury, its exact pattern remains poorly characterized by observations. Here we present BepiColombo Mio observations during the third Mercury flyby indicative of convection-driven transport of low-energy dense ions into the deep magnetosphere. During the flyby, Mio observed an energy-dispersed ion population from the duskside magnetopause to the deep region of the midnight magnetosphere. A comparison of the observations with backward test particle simulations suggests that the observed energy dispersion structure can be explained in terms of energy-selective transport by convection from the duskside tail magnetopause. We also discuss the properties and origins of more energetic ions observed in the more dipole-like field regions of the magnetosphere in comparison to previously reported populations of the plasma sheet horn and ring current ions. Additionally, forward test particle simulations predict that most of the observed ions on the nightside will precipitate onto relatively low-latitude regions of the nightside surface of Mercury for a typical convection case. The presented observations and simulation results reveal the critical role of magnetospheric convection in determining the structure of Mercury's magnetospheric plasma. The upstream driver dependence of magnetospheric convection and its effects on other magnetospheric processes and plasma-surface interactions should be further investigated by in-orbit BepiColombo observations.

Abstract

The heliosphere is full of galactic cosmic rays (GCR), high-energy charged particles coming isotropically from the galaxy. The GCR interact with the solar wind blown by the Sun carrying out plasma, magnetic fields and transient structures such as interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and their associated magnetic flux ropes (MFR). The GCR interaction with ICMEs has been extensively studied particularly the GCR flux attenuation (known as Forbush decreases) as a result of interacting with the ICME sheath and magnetic field. In this work, we investigate the opposite effect: the MFR's ability to generate GCR anisotropies which an observer may detect as an increase in the GCR flux. To achieve this, we simulated a flux of protons with energies in the 10–160 GeV range arriving from all directions to a cylindrical MFR (with and without sheath) with plasma, magnetic field, and spatial dimensions found in average ICMEs observed at 1 au. By following the individual trajectories of the injected particles we found that the MFR deviates the charged particles preferentially in one direction parallel to the MFR–axis. We also found that the peak of this anisotropic GCR flux depends on: the angle between the MFR and ambient magnetic fields; the presence or not of the sheath region; the energy of the incident particles and the observer location inside the MFR.