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Coastal Models Quantify How Natural Islands Respond to Sea Level Rise

EOS - Mon, 04/28/2025 - 12:00
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Earth’s Future 

Coral atoll islands are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and climate change. In rural islands where active coastal sediments processes are occurring, wave-driven sediment deposition can raise islands’ crest on their oceanward side.

Roelvink et al. [2025] show that coastal morphodynamic models are now able to provide quantitative insight into these phenomena. Specifically, they show that in the natural islands of Fiyoaree (Maldives), the sediment accumulation on the island crests can mitigate the projected increase of overwash during extreme wave events by a factor of three. Their modeling framework also confirms the benefits of adaptation measures aiming at protecting corals, particularly in reducing incoming wave energy. As climate is warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, increasing sea surface temperatures are causing widespread bleaching and mortality of corals, raising the urgent question of limits to coral adaptation, even at 2 degrees Celsius of global warming.

Hence, the study opens the way for future research exploring these limits in a quantitative manner, while also reminding us about the urgency of mitigating climate change to avoid irreversible losses and damages.

Citation: Roelvink, F. E., Masselink, G., Stokes, C., & McCall, R. T. (2025). Climate adaptation for a natural atoll island in the Maldives – predicting the long-term morphological response of coral islands to sea level rise and the effect of hazard mitigation strategies. Earth’s Future, 13, e2024EF005576. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005576

—Gonéri Le Cozannet, Associate Editor, Earth’s Future

Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Extreme monsoon changes threaten Bay of Bengal's role as a critical food source

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 04/28/2025 - 09:00
New research involving Rutgers professors has revealed that expected, extreme changes in India's summer monsoon could drastically hamper the Bay of Bengal's ability to support a crucial element of the region's food supply: marine life.

Microseismic and damage-zone characteristics of a fully locked fault segment on the Dead Sea Transform

Geophysical Journal International - Mon, 04/28/2025 - 00:00
SummaryIn this study, the microseismicity and damage-zone characteristics of a locked fault are investigated on a major left-lateral strike slip fault segment north of the Dead Sea Lake, the Jericho Fault (JF). The JF was observed as seismically silent for ${M}_w > 2$ earthquakes during recent decades, although it has generated significant earthquakes in the past. We extend seismological observations towards the microseismic range by deploying nine strong motion accelerometers directly on the inferred surface trace. From one year of continuous recordings (06/22–06/23) we found 61 seismic events in the range of 0.9 < ${M}_w$< 2.4, that are below the detection threshold of the permanent regional network. Most of these events are located west of the fault zone and represent activity on other smaller faults, with only three events located along the JF zone itself. We also found that the JF is more seismically quiescent than an analogous segment of the San Jacinto Fault (California)—the Anza gap, indicating that the JF is a particularly quiet fault segment even for microseismic activity and therefore, may be accumulating significant elastic strain energy along the locked-creeping boundary. The JF segment shows a characteristic earthquake distribution behaviour that could reasonably cause an earthquake of ${{\rm{M}}}_{\rm{w}}$ ∼ 7–7.4 if all strain energy, accumulated since the last major earthquake in 1033 AD, is released seismically in a single event. We also provide a new observational-based approach to characterise fault zone properties from trapped waves’ delay-times. Here we emphasise the damage zone velocity as the endmember on a continuum of discrete velocity values that progressively decrease towards the fault. This approach can be applied to other fault zones assisting in characterising rupture zone properties of fault segments. We report the first trapped waves observations at the Dead Sea Transform, caused by waves propagating along a damaged segment of the JF fault zone. We introduce a new trapped-waves inversion scheme, solely data driven, that does not make use of synthetic seismograms and model-based pre-assumptions. The JF coherently trends northwards from the Dead Sea Lake, showing a fault zone trapped-wave velocity estimation of 0.95 -1.15 ${\rm{km\ }}{{\rm{s}}}^{{\rm{ - 1}}}$ with $\~$35 per cent reduction from the surrounding host rock to the fault's damaged rock. A significant velocity drop is observed at the Jericho Escarpment reflecting a geological transfer from hard rock to soft sedimentary layers, towards the Jericho Fault. The trapped-waves inversion indicates ∼16 km of coherently damaged rock trending northwards from the Dead Sea Lake; this serves as a minimum estimate of the JF length, and appears to coincide with the silent section of the JF, rather than extending coherently further north.

Evaluating the performance of the rainfall forecast model based on GNSS ZTD and ERA5 CAPE for Hong Kong

Publication date: Available online 26 April 2025

Source: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

Author(s): Yang Liu, Qiaoling Zhang, Tenglong Wang, Yibin Yao, Mingxian Hu, Haobo Li, Bao Zhang, Chaoqian Xu, Qingzhi Zhao

Atmospheric electric field variations and its correlation with air quality index as observed from two low-latitude Indian stations

Publication date: Available online 24 April 2025

Source: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

Author(s): Rakhijul Alam Faruque, Sujay Pal, Gahul Amin, Sushanta Kumar Mondal

Research on PWV Fusion Based on ERA5 PWV and FY-4A PWV in Chinese mainland

Publication date: Available online 24 April 2025

Source: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

Author(s): Wei Du, Yong Wang, Xiao Liu, Jing Huang, Yanping Liu, Xiangshun Meng

Editorial Board

Publication date: May 2025

Source: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 270

Author(s):

A physical parameterization for cloudy-sky downward longwave radiation: Validation for tropical and subtropical regions in Brazil

Publication date: June 2025

Source: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 271

Author(s): José Marcelo Lopes Júnior, Juan Carlos Ceballos, Simone Marilene Sievert da Costa, Francisco Luiz Leitão de Mesquita, Hallan Souza de Jesus, André Rodrigues Gonçalves

Simulation and visualizations of solar car motion along the road

Publication date: June 2025

Source: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 271

Author(s): Emin Gardashov, Murad Eminov, Gökhan Kara, Rauf Gardashov

The Effect of Gravity on Equilibrium Evolution of the Semicircular Magnetic Flux Rope

Publication date: Available online 18 April 2025

Source: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

Author(s): Nam Sokchon, Kim Yongchol, Rim Yechol

Assessing temperature and water vapor in the atmospheric column over South America: a synopsis of identified trends using ERA5 reanalysis

Publication date: June 2025

Source: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 271

Author(s): Anna Carolina Bazzanela, Wanderson Luiz-Silva, Juan Neres, José Ricardo França, Lucas Menezes, Fabricio Polifke

Solar terminator related variations in geomagnetic field

Publication date: June 2025

Source: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 271

Author(s): Alexey Andreyev, Vyacheslav Somsikov, Vitaliy Kapytin, Yekaterina Chsherbulova

Understanding the performance of global precipitation products for hydrological modeling in the data-scarce morphologically complex central Himalayan region

Publication date: June 2025

Source: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 271

Author(s): Sneha Sandilya, Sunayana Singh, Sonu Kumar, Jitendra Rajput

Leveraging machine learning for accurate PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration prediction in selected Nigerian locations

Publication date: June 2025

Source: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 271

Author(s): O.A. Falaiye, O.F. Odubanjo, M. Sanni

Impact of atmospheric aerosols on air quality of three most polluted cities of Uttar Pradesh, India

Publication date: June 2025

Source: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 271

Author(s): Khushaboo Singh, Jaswant Singh, Suresh Kumar

A novel approach to estimate surface refractivity with simple meteorological data

Publication date: June 2025

Source: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 271

Author(s): Olanrewaju Olukemi Soneye-Arogundade, Bernhard Rappenglück

Vertical acoustic resonance in the atmosphere as a source of Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations

Publication date: June 2025

Source: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 271

Author(s): V.V. Surkov

Winter noctilucent clouds following sudden stratospheric warming: First observations

Publication date: May 2025

Source: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 270

Author(s): Oleg S. Ugolnikov

Atmospheric ozone modulation by cosmic ray Forbush decreases: Patterns and anomalies across multiple stations

Publication date: May 2025

Source: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 270

Author(s): Maghrabi A, Alghamdi Mayson, Abdulah Aldosari, Mohammed Al Mutairi, Mohammed Altlasi

Evaluating growth rates of sprite streamers

Publication date: May 2025

Source: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 270

Author(s): George V. Naidis

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