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Although the fundamental constitutive laws for steel and concrete were established more than a century ago, weak layers in snow remain a mystery. There are currently two theories about how they fail. A study published in Geophysical Research Letters has now identified a clear favorite.

New research reveals a powerful yet overlooked driver of climate change: intensifying ocean eddies. These swirling currents—that break off from major currents—are redistributing heat and nutrients in the ocean and amplifying climate extremes in key coastal ecosystems.

The Landslide Blog is written by Dave Petley, who is widely recognized as a world leader in the study and management of landslides.

I’ve not posted about Landslides in Art much in recent years – the most recent edition was almost two years ago – but loyal readers will know that this is a long running series of posts.

Anyway, I came across a page recently about the major landslide that struck the village of Runswick Bay in North Yorkshire. It includes a painting of the village with the above name, by an artist who signed themselves as “Jotter”. The painting is now in the collection of the Kirkleatham Museum:-

The Great Landslide of 1664 of Runswick Bay on The day Village That Slipped into the Sea by “Jotter”. The painting is held by the Kirkleatham Museum.

Now, there is a twist in that the landslide actually occurred in 1662, not 1664!

Runswick Bay is a picture postcard village in North Yorkshire of the UK, located at [54.53356, -0.75015]. The coastal part of the village is built on landslide debris, and there has been some movement in recent decades. In the late 1990s a very large scheme was put in place to mitigate the ongoing movement.

This is a Google Earth view of the village:-

Google Earth view of Runswick Bay.

The Tees Valley Museums site describes the landslide of 1662, noting that there were two major failure events. It is very fortunate that no-one was killed. The village was essentially destroyed and then rebuilt to the south of the original site.

It is probably true to say that the painting by Jotter is not a classic, but it does capture some interesting aspects of the site. First, it appears that the morphology is that of an existing landslide mass – this was probably a reactivation rather than a first time failure. Second, the toe was actively eroding, so maybe the two phase failure involved a collapse at the toe, which then destabilised the mass upslope? This would fit the eyewitness reports. Finally, note the mass in the background, which is also the result of a series of failure events.

There are many other major landslides along this section of coast – it is a classic area of UK mass movement geology. And it is truly beautiful too – visit if you can.

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A common mineral hiding in plain sight could hold the key to making copper production cleaner, faster and more efficient, just as global demand for the metal surges to power the energy transition. In an article published in Nature Geoscience, researchers from Monash University's School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment describe why chalcopyrite, the source of around 70% of the world's copper, has remained so difficult to process, and how its hidden chemistry could be harnessed to unlock more sustainable extraction.

SummarySeismic wave speed monitoring is important for the non-destructive evaluation of material properties in response to external forcing. Coda wave interferometry (CWI) uses travel time perturbations in multiply-scattered seismic wave trains – the seismic coda – to detect subtle perturbations in bulk wave speed. However, conventional body-wave CWI cannot separate the coupled contributions of P and S waves, which are sensitive to different material properties. We introduce energy partitioning inversion which decouples these modes by combining a scattering model with CWI measurements within non-equipartitioned coda windows. We applied this methodology to repeated ultrasonic pulse surveys during two laboratory loading experiments on Clashach sandstone: a dynamic experiment (constant strain rate until brittle failure) and a quasi-static experiment (modulating stress to maintain constant acoustic emission rate and slow down the failure process). Relative travel time perturbations and their full covariance between all pairs of surveys were measured across multiple coda windows and inverted for a single perturbation profile using a least-squares method to minimise the variance of the profile. Using an isotropic point scatterer model to predict mode partitioning with respect to the coda lapse time, we invert travel time perturbations for the scattering mean free path travel time and relative P and S wave speed perturbations via Markov-chain Monte Carlo inversion to quantify uncertainty. P and S wave speed perturbations were resolved with 95 % credible intervals of 0.025 % and 0.008 %, respectively. During the quasi-static experiment the temporal resolution was sufficient to capture a quasi-linear decrease in P and S wave speeds by ~ 50 % and ~ 14%, respectively, from peak to failure. The peak P and S wave speed perturbations were ~ 33% lower and ~ 75% higher, respectively, compared to those found in the dynamic experiment. These results demonstrate that CWI and energy partitioning inversion enables the robust, uncertainty-quantified evaluation of separate relative bulk P and S wave speed perturbations in strongly-scattering media.

Models of glacial flow and retreat rely on estimates of glacial ice viscosity, the measure of the ice's resistance to flow. Ice viscosity is dependent on the stress applied to the glacier. Most ice sheet models use a standard equation to model ice flow that includes the variable n, called the stress exponent. A larger value of n means ice viscosity is more sensitive to changes in stress. For decades, glaciologists have, almost exclusively, used an assumed n value of 3 in the models they use to predict ice flow.

Coastal groundwater is a key source of drinking water in many regions of the world. However, it is threatened by overabstraction and the potential for salinization. Rising sea levels are further exacerbating the situation. This is demonstrated by a recent study published in Nature Water by a research team led by Professor Robert Reinecke from the Institute of Geography at Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU) and Annika Nolte from the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) in Hamburg.

Mark Clementz, a professor in the University of Wyoming Department of Geology and Geophysics, and colleagues have produced a compelling study that shows that an increase in volcanic activity in the Andes in the Late Miocene Epoch likely resulted in a cooling of Earth between 5.4 million and 7 million years ago. Their findings are in a new article, titled "Andean volcanism, ocean fertilization, marine ecosystem turnover, and global cooling in the Late Miocene," published in Communications Earth & Environment.

Publication date: Available online 13 April 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Patrick Mungufeni, Yenca Migoya-Orué, Sharon Aol, George Omondi

Publication date: Available online 13 April 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Wei Bingchuan, Lei Yukai, Cai Yingkai, Wang Zhaokui

How can magma buried 5, 10, or even 15 km underground be detected without any surface indicators? The answer lies in ambient noise tomography, a technique that analyzes natural ground vibrations with high precision. A team from the University of Geneva (UNIGE), the Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources (CNR-IGG), and the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) has identified a vast reservoir containing approximately 6,000 km3 of magma beneath Tuscany.

Source: AGU Advances

Models of glacial flow and retreat rely on estimates of glacial ice viscosity, the measure of the ice’s resistance to flow.

Ice viscosity is dependent on the stress applied to the glacier. Most ice sheet models use a standard equation to model ice flow that includes the variable n, called the stress exponent. A larger value of n means ice viscosity is more sensitive to changes in stress. For decades, glaciologists have, almost exclusively, used an assumed n value of 3 in the models they use to predict ice flow.

However, through recent experiments and observations, researchers have found that an n value of 4 may actually better represent the conditions of Earth’s ice sheets and glaciers.

Martin et al. created a model representation of the fast-retreating Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica. The ice sheet in their model had a true n value of 4, but they ran model projections using both n = 4 and n = 3. That allowed them to observe how their model would incorrectly predict glacial flow and resulting sea level change, given an incorrect n value.

The researchers modeled glacial retreat for 100 years under both equations with two different glacial melting scenarios. They then modeled glacial recovery for another 300 years. Under a moderate scenario, the n = 3 model underestimated glacial retreat by 18% and sea level change contributions by 21%. Under an extreme melting scenario, the model underestimated sea level contributions by 35%.

Notably, those disparities in glacial retreat and sea level change contribution predictions increased more than would be expected between the two scenarios, potentially increasing the level of uncertainty in current projections of sea level change. The researchers also suggest that incorrect n values may be mistakenly attributed to other physical processes in current ice sheet models.

The results could have far-reaching implications for predictions of future glacial melt and may prompt investigations into its effects on sea level, the authors say. (AGU Advances, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV001946, 2026)

—Madeline Reinsel, Science Writer

Citation: Reinsel, M. (2026), Glaciers may flow into the ocean more quickly than we think, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260107. Published on 14 April 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

In the winter of 923, a magnitude 7.5 earthquake struck the heart of Puget Sound. Shorelines slid into the water, the seafloor rose up, and a tsunami swept through the region.

The Seattle fault zone, actually a mesh of faults that runs right under its eponymous city, was responsible for this quake. The fault continues to pose one of the deadliest threats to the Pacific Northwest; if a similar quake were to hit today, it would threaten millions of lives and cause billions of dollars in damage.

Two new papers dig into recurrence intervals, or the quiescent periods between earthquakes, for the Seattle fault zone. They offer good news and bad news: One study, published in Geology, found that in the past 11,000 years, the massive 923 event was the only quake of magnitude 7.5 or greater. The other study, published in GSA Bulletin, found that smaller, but still damaging, quakes occur more frequently than previously thought.

The Seattle fault zone runs east-west under the city and the surrounding Puget Sound. Credit: Washington Geological Survey (Washington Department of Natural Resources)

The new research indicates the worst-case scenario of frequent 923-style events is less likely than some scientists thought, said Harold Tobin, a geophysicist at the University of Washington and head of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, who was not involved in either study. But researchers also found that “the less worse, but still bad scenarios” are more likely than previously thought.

Meet the Seattle Fault

“For a fault that has had so much attention, there’s so much we still don’t know.”

The Seattle fault zone is a thrust fault system that stretches about 75 kilometers (46 miles) from the foothills of the Cascades east of Seattle to the Hood Canal, which runs along the shores of the Olympic Peninsula to the city’s west, passing under Seattle along the way.

Geologists began rigorously exploring the fault system in the early 1990s, intrigued by gravitational anomalies, uplifted marine terraces (stair-step geological formations along coastlines), and evidence of a roughly 1,000-year-old tsunami. All these features hinted at a major, shallow earthquake on a local fault zone—likely the 923 event.

But “for a fault that has had so much attention, there’s so much we still don’t know,” said Elizabeth Davis, an earthquake geologist at the University of Washington who led the Geology study.

The most pressing questions are how big quakes on the fault get, how often they hit, and, ultimately, what risks the fault poses to people who live in the Puget Sound area.

“It takes some real geologic sleuthing to get at those tough questions,” Tobin said.

Biggest Seattle Fault Quakes Are Rare

Davis focused on the activity of the main fault, which can generate the biggest quakes in the Seattle fault zone complex. It was responsible for the 923 quake. But the existing record went back only about 5,000 years.

“We just don’t know what the recurrence interval for these big quakes is,” Davis said. “We wanted to lengthen the record.”

To do so, Davis and her collaborators turned to marine terraces, the oldest of which date back to the end of the last ice age about 11,000 years ago. The quake in 923 raised terraces by about 8 meters (26 feet), and scientists wanted to look for similar-scale uplift in terraces all around the sound.

The researchers mapped more than 150 terraces around Puget Sound and measured their depths. After accounting for regional slopes, they estimated uplift over time that could have been caused by quakes.

They found that in that 11,000-year period, only the 923 event generated significant uplift. Thick sediment mantles could mask smaller events but not 923-scale quakes, Davis said.

Estimating true recurrence intervals requires knowing the timing of multiple events. But the finding is “not bad news,” she said. It provides some evidence that the recurrence interval is likely not shorter than about 5,000 years.

“That could give us more of a buffer between now and when the next big one like that will happen,” said Stephen Angster, a U.S. Geological Survey geologist who led the GSA Bulletin study.

Smaller, Damaging Quakes Are More Frequent

Angster’s work focused on Seattle’s secondary faults, which are smaller, mostly blind faults (those not visible at the surface) capable of generating damaging earthquakes. Previous work had shown that one of these secondary faults generated a magnitude 6.7 earthquake, highlighting the risk they pose. Angster wanted to explore rupture histories of these secondary faults, particularly whether they could rupture independently from the main fault.

The researchers used a suite of paleoseismic tools, including magnetic data, field and lidar mapping, trenches dug across faults, and geochronology. They studied two newly identified secondary faults that have orientations similar to the main fault.

They found three new earthquakes to add to the region’s seismic history, including the oldest and youngest events in the known record, which were around 11,000 years ago and in the early 1800s, respectively. The earthquakes appear to be evidence of ruptures that occurred independently of the main fault, suggesting that the smaller—but still dangerous—secondary faults should be considered in hazard modeling.

With that lengthened record and the addition of three quakes, the recurrence interval the researchers found was about every 350 years over the past 2,500 years. This timing refined the previous estimate of every several hundred years.

There also appears to be an increase in activity over the past 2,000 years.

“Maybe we should be paying attention to that,” Angster said.

What Happens Next

“There are other earthquakes that aren’t as big but that occur more frequently. Those might not be as catastrophic, but it would be a very bad scenario for Seattle” if such events occurred.

“These are both carefully done studies,” Tobin said. “We now have evidence that the 923 event was the biggest in 11,000 years. But there are other earthquakes that aren’t as big but that occur more frequently. Those might not be as catastrophic, but it would be a very bad scenario for Seattle” if such events occurred.

It’s still to be determined whether the risk from secondary faults will be incorporated into the National Seismic Hazard Model, which includes the 923 quake but not smaller ones along the Seattle fault zone. The secondary faults were left out in previous efforts because they are shorter than the minimum length required to be included and because of uncertainties in their potential rupture magnitude.

—Rebecca Dzombak (@rdzombak.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Dzombak, R. (2026), On the Seattle Fault, the biggest quakes aren’t the most likely, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260114. Published on 14 April 2026. Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

The purpose of atmospheric data assimilation is to obtain a 3-dimensional gridded representation of the fields of the atmospheric state variables (temperature, wind, pressure, etc.) for a specific time based on atmospheric observations. The product of data assimilation, called analysis, can be used to prepare weather maps and to start model-based weather forecasts. Analyses collected over a long period of time can also be used for research and to monitor variability and changes in the climate.

The main challenges of data assimilation are that observations are not collocated with the grid-points of the analysis, and most observations do not observe the variables of interest directly and have errors. For example, satellite-based observations, which form the bulk of the operationally assimilated observations, measure the intensity of electro-magnetic waves at the top of the atmosphere; a physical quantity that depends on the atmospheric state in highly complicated ways. The background-error covariance matrix is a key component of a data assimilation system, responsible for spreading information from observations to the unobserved locations and state variables. A good estimate of this matrix is essential to produce analyses in which the fields of the state variables are realistic and consistent with each other. Obtaining such an estimate is particularly challenging for tropical locations, where physics-based knowledge does not lead to a straightforward practical formulation.

In a new study, Melinc et al. [2026] propose a novel machine learning-based (ML-based) approach to define a background-error matrix that is equally effective in the midlatitudes and tropics. This approach takes advantage of the power of ML to learn quantitative relationships between different state variables at different locations-relationships that are either not known, or cannot be easily used for the formulation of a background-error matrix based on physics-based knowledge.

Citation: Melinc, B., Perkan, U., & Zaplotnik, Ž. (2026). A unified neural background-error covariance model for midlatitude and tropical atmospheric data assimilation. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 18, e2025MS005360. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025MS005360

—Istvan Szunyogh, Associate Editor, JAMES

Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Author(s): Andrea Cernuschi, Thomas Thuillier, and Laurent Garrigues

The electron cyclotron resonance ion plasma accelerator (ECRIPAC) is an original concept for a plasma-based particle accelerator able to generate pulsed ion beams with adjustable energy, targeting mostly medical applications. This paper thoroughly reviews the working principle and physical theory be…

[Phys. Rev. E 113, 045211] Published Tue Apr 14, 2026

Author(s): Andrea Cernuschi, Thomas Thuillier, and Laurent Garrigues

Plasma-based accelerators are often distinguished by their compact size. This paper presents theoretical designs for several compact plasma-based devices to accelerate ions relevant for medical applications. Design parameters are validated with a Monte Carlo particle-tracking code.

#TechnicalAdvancement #TimelyTopic

[Phys. Rev. E 113, L043202] Published Tue Apr 14, 2026

A new paper Fidan et al. (2026) demonstrates that wealth and the rate of land-cover change play a key role in determining the occurrence of fatal landslides in mountain areas. These factors are statistically more significant that precipitation and topography.

A fascinating new paper (Fidan et al. 2026 – this paper is both open access and published under a Creative Commons licence – hurrah!) has just been published in the journal Science Advances that explores rates of land-cover (in the paper, the authors use the term land-use – land-cover) change as a factor in determining fatal landslides in mountains globally. I must admit to some degree of personal interest in this paper, although I am neither an autor nor a reviewer, as it brilliantly uses the dataset that Melanie Froude and I collated on global landslide fatalities (see Froude and Petley 2018). I’m delighted to see our data being used in this way (and please do contact me if you want a copy of the spreadsheet).

Fidan et al. (2026) explores a range of factors that might influence the occurrence of fatal landslides from the perspective of either increased vulnerability (poorer people may live in more vulnerable locations for example) or increased landslide likelihood (land-cover change might increase the likelihood of a landslide being triggered, for example).

The fascinating result lies in land-cover change. The authors have looked at  approximately 60 years of land-cover changes in mountainous areas across 46 countries. Unsurprisingly, there is substantial change, especially in low- and lower-middle–income countries, often involving the loss of forest (which as a first order estimation, may buffer against slope failures), although the pattern is far more complex of course. Fidan et al. (2026) find that a key metric is the rate of change of land-cover, and that this is linked to the rate of population growth (perhaps unsurprisingly). Countries with high rates of population growth also show high rates of change of land-cover.

In many ways, the most interesting figure in this study is in the Supplementary Information. It is a complex diagram, but it’s worth more detailed analysis:-

The relationship between the land-cover change rate and the density of fatal landslides for mountain areas around the world. Figure from Fidan et al. (2026), published under a Creative Commons Licence.

The main map (A) shows mountain areas with high rates of land-cover change (orange), high density of fatal landslides (blue) or both (black). The left hand graph (B) shows the relationship between the landslide density and the rate of change of land-cover – here, higher rates of land-cover change are associated with a higher density of fatal landslides. The right hand graph is the same data as in (B), but with each point coloured according to the income level of the country. High income countries have a lower fatal landslide density. Thus, as the authors conclude, wealth and land-cover change appear to control fatal landslide density.

There is a really surprising element to this study, which I think requires more consideration. I think I should allow the authors themselves to express this finding, from the abstract:-

“Our statistical analyses show that land-use – land-cover changes have a substantially greater influence on the density of fatal landslides and landslide fatalities than physical factors such as topography and precipitation, especially in lower-income countries.”

As landslide researchers, we almost always default to topography and precipitation as being key in landslide occurrence. There are sound reasons for doing so. But statistically, the rate of land-cover change plays a more important role in mountain areas, especially in poorer countries.

This has (or should have) major implications for the way that we consider and manage landslide risk in such areas.

References

Fidan, S. et al. 2026. Wealth and land-cover change govern landslide fatalities on world’s mountains. Science Advances 12, eaec2739. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aec2739.

Froude M.J. and Petley D.N. 2018. Global fatal landslide occurrence from 2004 to 2016. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 18, 2161-2181. DOI: 10.5194/nhess-18-2161-2018.

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage

Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Urban emissions of methane—a potent greenhouse gas—are rising faster than bottom-up accounting estimates anticipated, according to a study led by University of Michigan Engineering. The discrepancy was found with satellite measurements of methane over 92 major cities around the world. For 72 of the cities, there were sufficient data to track changes in methane emissions between 2019 and 2023. Overall, global urban methane emissions in 2023 were 6% higher than 2019 levels and 10% higher than 2020 levels, although they tended to decrease in European cities.

Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Tectonics

Scientific progress rarely follows a straight path. Instead, it develops through open discussion, critical evaluation, and the testing of new ideas. The exchange between authors and colleagues illustrates how this process unfolds in modern Earth sciences and provides a valuable example of constructive scientific debate.

At the center of the discussion lies a fundamental question about one of Earth’s most remarkable geological features: how did the Himalaya and the Tibetan Plateau become the highest and largest mountain system on the planet?

In their paper “Raising the Roof of the World: Intra-Crustal Asian Mantle Supports the
Himalayan–Tibetan Orogen,” Sternai et al. [2025] address this question using numerical geodynamic modeling. These computer simulations reproduce the physical behavior of large rock masses deep inside the Earth and allow researchers to investigate the long-term evolution of this vast orogenic system.

Their study specifically explores the possibility that, during the collision between the Indian and Asian plates, layers of mechanically strong Asian mantle rock became embedded within the thickened Indian continental crust beneath the Tibetan Plateau. According to this hypothesis, these mantle layers could help sustain the elevation of the Plateau by effectively withstanding stresses over long geological timescales: the Indian crust would provide buoyancy (raising the roof), while the Asian mantle would contribute mechanical strength to support the Himalayan–Tibetan topography.

Hetényi and Cattin disagree with and challenge this interpretation in their Comment. Drawing on a large body of well-established geophysical and geological observations, they argue that the structure beneath southern Tibet is better explained by underthrusting, the process by which the Indian plate slides beneath the Tibetan Plateau. Seismic imaging studies, including receiver-function analyses that use earthquake waves to map subsurface structures, consistently reveal features interpreted as Indian crust and upper mantle extending far north beneath Tibet.

In their Reply, Sternai and colleagues clarify that their models were not intended to accurately reproduce the present-day structure of the region in detail. Instead, they were designed as process-oriented experiments to test whether existing and/or alternative mechanisms for crustal thickening and plateau support are mechanically and rheologically viable.

This exchange highlights an important aspect of contemporary geoscience—observations of Earth’s interior such as seismic images, gravity data, and geological records often allow multiple, non-unique interpretations. Numerical modeling provides a complementary approach by evaluating whether proposed geological mechanisms are physically plausible.

Equally significant is the tone of the discussion itself. The Comment and Reply show how scientists, while strongly disagreeing about interpretations, can maintain a constructive and respectful dialogue. Such approach fuels scientific advance by encouraging the community to re-examine established assumptions, refine models, and integrate new observations.

Debates like this one, therefore, extend well beyond a specific geological question. They illustrate how scientific understanding advances through the interplay of observations, theoretical reasoning, and modeling experiments.

In this way, the dialogue highlighted here contributes not only to our understanding of the Himalayan–Tibetan mountain system but also to the broader methodology of Earth science.

Citations

Sternai, P., Pilia, S., Ghelichkhan, S., Bouilhol, P., Menant, A., Davies, D. R., et al. (2025). Raising the roof of the world: Intra-crustal Asian mantle supports the Himalayan-Tibetan orogen. Tectonics, 44, e2025TC009057. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025TC009057

Hetényi, G., & Cattin, R. (2026). Comment on “Raising the roof of the world: Intra-crustal Asian mantle supports the Himalayan-Tibetan orogen” by Sternai et al. Tectonics, 45, e2025TC009214. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025TC009214

Sternai, P., Pilia, S., Ghelichkhan, S., Bouilhol, P., Menant, A., Ostorero, L., et al. (2026). Reply to comment by Hetényi and Cattin on: “Raising the roof of the world: Intra-crustal Asian mantle supports the Himalayan-Tibetan orogen”. Tectonics, 45, e2026TC009436. https://doi.org/10.1029/2026TC009436

—Giulio Viola, Editor-in-Chief, Tectonics

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Located in Sicily, Mount Etna is Europe's most active volcano. Yet its origin remains largely enigmatic, as no existing geological model fully explains how it formed. In a new study, scientists from the University of Lausanne (UNIL) shed light on these mechanisms and reveal why Mount Etna may in fact be unique in the world.