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Estimation of the solar modulation limit of cosmic rays

Publication date: 15 May 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 10

Author(s): R.A. Caballero-Lopez

Pre- and co-seismic ionospheric TEC anomalies from statistical and signal processing analysis: Evidence for lithosphere-atmosphere–ionosphere coupling in the Myanmar earthquake

Publication date: 15 May 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 10

Author(s): Swati, Devbrat Pundhir, Saral Kumar Gupta, Nitin Dubey, Dhananjali Singh, Birbal Singh

Geomagnetic storm-time total electron content modeling over North Africa: U-Net architecture validated against AfriTEC

Publication date: 15 May 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 10

Author(s): Adel Fathy, A.I. Saad Farid, Daniel Okoh, Patrick Mungufeni, Ayman Mahrous, Mohamed Nassar, Yuichi Otsuka, Weizheng Fu, John Bosco Habarulema, Haitham El-husseiny, Ahmed Arafa

Swift heavy‐ion‐driven chemistry in CO:CO<sub>2</sub> astrophysical ice analogs: Part I – experimental data

Publication date: 15 May 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 10

Author(s): S. Pilling, L. Moraes, C.M.L. Fargnoli, A. Ojeda-González, W.R.M. Rocha, A. Domaracka, P. Boduch, H. Rothard

Dynamic monitoring of dark slope streaks within large-scale Martian scenes using multitemporal high-resolution orbiter imagery

Publication date: 15 May 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 10

Author(s): Bo Wan, Sicong Liu, Xiaohua Tong, Huan Xie, Yongjiu Feng, Yanmin Jin, Kecheng Du, Jie Zhang

Relativistic quantum mechanical calculations of Stark broadening of Si III and Si IV spectral lines

Publication date: 15 May 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 10

Author(s): Chao Wu, Xiang Gao, Yong Wu, Ming Li, You Xie, Jian Guo Wang

Adaptive antifragile predefined-time dynamic surface control for attitude tracking of spacecraft with time-varying constraints

Publication date: 15 May 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 10

Author(s): Run Zhang, Zhonghe Jin

Spacecraft attitude takeover and torque distribution optimization on SO(3) considering jerk

Publication date: 15 May 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 10

Author(s): Yang Hu, Hua-Yi Li, Sai Zhang, Qian Cao, Zhen Yang

Comprehensive study of space weather conditions during the September 11–21 2024 geospace storm. 1. The solar and magnetospheric storms

Publication date: 15 May 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 10

Author(s): L.F. Chernogor, D.R. Kulyk

Safe reinforcement learning for aerospace control via model-relaxed lyapunov stability

Publication date: 15 May 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 10

Author(s): Donghe Chen, Jiaxuan Yue, Tengjie Zheng, Lin Cheng, Shengping Gong

Investigating ionospheric TEC variations in solar and geomagnetic influences across solar activity phases

Publication date: 15 May 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 10

Author(s): Ziyadat Hassan, Zamri Zainal Abidin, Affan Adly Nazri, Nursyazela Badrina Baharin

Comparative analysis of spacecraft self-shadowing algorithms

Publication date: 15 May 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 10

Author(s): P.R. Zapevalin

A deep deterministic policy gradient algorithm for actuator grouping in antenna reflector surface shape control

Publication date: 15 May 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 10

Author(s): Zehua Zhang, Xiande Wu, Xiangshuai Song, Chao Dong

Analysis of EVA gloves vibration reduction mechanism in a zero-gravity, low-pressure environment

Publication date: 15 May 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 10

Author(s): Yanpu Mu, Hao Fu, Yizhen Zheng, Yuefeng Li, Xudong Pan

A giant warm wave is crossing the Pacific, signaling an El Niño that could alter weather worldwide this year

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 05/27/2026 - 19:00
Waves of higher, warmer water move eastward across the Pacific Ocean a few months before an El Niño emerges. Several have shown up in 2026 satellite data.

Earth's oxygen-rich atmosphere may owe its existence to cold subduction

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 05/27/2026 - 16:15
Earth was mostly devoid of oxygen for much of its 4.5 billion year lifetime. That is, until certain processes started to allow for the eventual buildup of oxygen up to the levels we have now (around 21% of the atmosphere). While scientists have found evidence of the approximate timescales of rises in oxygen over time and are aware of some of the mechanisms behind it, the main driver behind Earth's long-term oxygenation is still unclear.

The Governance Gap Threatening Long-Term Ecological Archives

EOS - Wed, 05/27/2026 - 13:22

On 31 March 2026, the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced the closure of 57 of its 77 U.S. Forest Service research facilities. The scientific community’s response was warranted: Save the science, restore the funding, protect the researchers.

All of that is correct. But it misses a structural problem inherent in agency governance, one that will recur at every reorganization until the Earth science community builds an instrument to prevent it.

In massive reorganizations like the ones federal agencies are currently experiencing, the threat to long-term research facilities is not primarily a lack of funding. The true threat is an oversight of administrative architecture. There appears to be no general federal requirement to have a successor stewardship plan in place before reducing the output or outreach of a long-term research facility—or closing it entirely.

The Physical Archive Is Not a Digital File

Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire was among the sites under review during the Forest Service restructuring but has since received a public reprieve. The future of Bartlett Experimental Forest, also in New Hampshire, remains unresolved. The governance problem, however, extends beyond either site.

Hubbard Brook’s physical archive holds more than 60,000 barcoded and cataloged samples: water, soils, plant material, and physical cores spanning 7 decades of continuous collection and stored under active environmental controls in a dedicated building on site.

These samples cannot be digitized. They cannot be migrated to a remote server, backed up to cloud storage, or emailed to a university partner. The samples require a functioning building, active temperature management, and a named human steward responsible for their integrity.

  • The physical archive at Hubbard Brook holds more than 60,000 barcoded and cataloged samples stretching back to the founding of the facility in 1955. Credit: Anthony Veltri
  • The archive includes core samples of trees dating to long before the experimental forest was established, and the archive maintains each as a managed scientific record with continuity of custody. Credit: Anthony Veltri
  • Core samples like these document the watershed at Hubbard Brook and anchor long-term understanding of system processes. Credit: Anthony Veltri

The archive at Hubbard Brook is impressive, but a governed record is defined by continuity, provenance, and stewardship, not by the number of observations it contains: Data volume is not data value. A 70-year unbroken record of watershed chemistry, maintained by named stewards who documented what they were measuring and why, is a governed product. Without that stewardship and physical anchor, volume can become noise.

The failure to maintain archives like this is likely not malicious; it is an example of administrative indifference or perhaps a lack of awareness or understanding. Environmental controls, for example, get zeroed out of a budget line item, and nobody notices until the temperature in the facility drifts. By then, the sample record has degraded in ways that cannot be reversed.

This Is Not a Hubbard Brook Problem

Many physical archives, calibration sites, and long-duration sampling programs operate without a formal requirement for stewardship continuity.

Hubbard Brook is the most visible instance of a pattern—the lack of a successor stewardship plan—that runs across the entire 84-site federal Experimental Forests, Ranges, and Watersheds network. The March order that identified Bartlett Experimental Forest and 56 other research facilities across 31 states for closure was executed without a mandatory requirement to identify successor stewards for what gets left behind.

Nor is the pattern unique to experimental forests. The Long Term Ecological Research network spans 28 core sites. AmeriFlux includes more than 500 monitoring locations across North America.

Throughout all these systems, many physical archives, calibration sites, and long-duration sampling programs operate without a formal requirement for stewardship continuity under agency reorganization.

What We Stand to Lose

Long-term physical archives provide scientists and other stakeholders the ability to ask future questions of past reality. Nobody collecting water samples at Hubbard Brook in 1963 was thinking about PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances), for instance, but the baseline its site samples provide is why we can track the chemicals today. The same continuous record was central to the regulatory science behind the Clean Air Act amendments of 1990.

Archival value compounds silently and becomes visible only when someone needs it.

Archival value compounds silently for decades and becomes visible only when someone needs it.

When these archives fail, the loss is not historical. It is operational. Regulatory agencies rely on long-baseline records to determine whether interventions are working. Without a continuous physical reference, observed changes cannot be distinguished from measurement drift, instrumentation bias, or natural variability. The results are policy decisions made without a defensible scientific baseline.

Federal investment in continuous collection at a site like Hubbard Brook runs to tens of millions of dollars over decades. That investment is not recoverable once continuity is broken.

Unlike a paused research grant, a degraded physical archive cannot be restarted. You can photograph a sample, but you cannot rerun its chemistry 40 years from now if the physical sample has degraded.

In 2017, a double mechanical failure at the University of Alberta destroyed 12.8% of the Canadian Ice Core Archive over a single weekend, permanently erasing records dating back 12,000 years. That incident was accidental. A mechanical malfunction is a failure of equipment. Administrative disposal without a named successor steward is a failure of governance. One arrives without warning. The other can be prevented.

The Community Already Knows How to Do This

The Earth observation community has already built the governance model we need. We are not yet applying it to long-term ecological research infrastructure.

GRUAN, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper-Air Network, operates under the World Meteorological Organization and GCOS, with explicit named stewardship obligations. Upper-air observations—measurements of temperature, humidity, and wind through the atmosphere—are foundational inputs to weather forecasting and climate monitoring. Each GRUAN station has a designated principal investigator with a documented succession obligation.

ICOS, the Integrated Carbon Observation System operating across Europe, applies the same logic to terrestrial ecosystem observations through formal site-level stewardship agreements and named succession requirements.

In the United States, the National Ecological Observatory Network is funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and operated by Battelle, a science and technology nonprofit, under a contract that includes explicit data continuity obligations.

These systems did not emerge by accident. They were explicitly designed to solve a known failure mode: Distributed observational networks cannot maintain their own calibration integrity without a separately governed reference layer. That design decision is documented, enforced, and funded. The absence of an equivalent requirement in long-term ecological research infrastructure is not a technical limitation. It is a governance omission.

The pattern is consistent across every network that has solved this problem: Named continuity obligations must be written into the governance structure before the need becomes acute.

The Governance Instrument

The best outcome is the continued, uninterrupted operation of facilities like Hubbard Brook.

Any federal agency action that would reduce operational support for a long-term research facility should require a formal continuity plan before the action takes effect.

If reductions move forward, however, the proposed fix is specific and not novel: Any federal agency action that would reduce or eliminate operational support for a long-term research facility should require a formal continuity plan before the action takes effect. That plan must name a successor steward for each active long-term dataset and for each physical archive under active environmental control.

In practice this means specificity: the name and institutional affiliation of the successor, a funded maintenance budget sufficient to sustain environmental controls and sample integrity, documented protocols for custody transfer, and a timeline for uninterrupted handoff. The plan must demonstrate that the successor steward has the operational capacity and funded mandate to preserve the archive’s physical integrity and continuity.

This instrument prepares plant samples collected at Hubbard Brook using standardized methods. Consistent preparation is what makes results comparable across time and labs and why continued stewardship is so important. Credit: Anthony Veltri

The default should be continued stewardship by the responsible federal entity. If a change in custody is legally permitted and genuinely unavoidable, any successor steward, whether another federal unit, a university partner, a consortium, or another entity, must have a funded mandate, demonstrated technical capacity, enforceable continuity obligations, and the ability to maintain the archive without interruption.

Protocol demands that if the agency cannot name a viable successor steward, the agency cannot execute the closure. This requirement does not prohibit closure; it prohibits closure without continuity of custody.

The instrument requiring a research facility to have a formal continuity plan should be applied not on a site-by-site basis, but uniformly across networks. A limitation narrowly written to protect a named facility invites the agency to execute the same administrative disposal at adjacent sites while technically complying with the specific requirement. The governance is structurally sound only if it applies across the network.

How This Actually Happens

The pathways that would make such an instrument possible already exist.

Agencies can impose continuity requirements through policy directives, appropriations language, or funding conditions. The federal Office of Science and Technology Policy and the Office of Management and Budget have coordinated interagency data management guidance before, and a directive requiring named successor stewardship before any facility reduction does not require legislation. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) has already secured fiscal year 2026 language directing the Forest Service to prioritize staffing at long-standing experimental forests; attaching successor stewardship language is the logical next step. NSF, the Department of Energy, and NOAA could require stewardship continuity guarantees from partner agencies as a condition of incorporating facility data into federally funded continental-scale products.

Scientists recognize that agencies reorganize and funding for facilities can be downgraded. That is why preserving a continued record of any long-term research facility must be part of the facility’s governance structure from the outset. Credit: Anthony Veltri

What is missing is the requirement itself—and the strategic initiative to establish it. The Earth science community has the standing, the documented models, and the mechanisms to close those gaps.

This is not an argument against reorganization. Agencies reorganize. Budgets shift. Research priorities evolve.

The argument is that reorganization cannot be permitted to destroy multigenerational scientific infrastructure through administrative indifference when a specific, enforceable governance requirement can prevent it. The Earth observation community built GRUAN because it recognized that no federation of climate datasets can be a substitute for a governed anchor point. Long-term ecological research infrastructure needs the same recognition applied to the administrative layer that governs its continuity.

The scientific enterprise already knows how to do this. The governance has not caught up yet.

Author Information

Anthony Veltri (anthony@anthonyveltri.com) is an independent practitioner and former physical scientist and senior policy analyst with the USDA Forest Service Washington Office, where he worked on enterprise architecture and governance in federal programs, including those supporting scientific research.

Citation: Veltri, A. (2026), The governance gap threatening long-term ecological archives, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260172. Published on 27 May 2026. This article does not represent the opinion of AGU, Eos, or any of its affiliates. It is solely the opinion of the author(s). Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

From Volcanic Vents to Safer Skies

EOS - Wed, 05/27/2026 - 12:00
Editors’ Vox is a blog from AGU’s Publications Department.

Explosive volcanic eruptions inject gases and ash into the atmosphere, posing major hazards for human health, infrastructure, and aviation. A new article in Reviews of Geophysics examines recent advances in estimating Eruption Source Parameters (ESPs), the key conditions at the volcanic vent that are a necessity for modeling the behavior of volcanic plumes. Here, we asked the authors to explain what ESPs are, what technologies are used to observe eruptions, and which scientific challenges and future research directions remain for improving volcanic plume monitoring and modeling.

In simple terms, what are Eruption Source Parameters?

Eruption Source Parameters (ESPs) describe the key conditions at the volcanic vent during an eruption.

Eruption Source Parameters (ESPs) describe the key conditions at the volcanic vent during an eruption, such as the mass eruption rate, exit velocity, temperature, and particle size distribution. These parameters define how material is injected into the atmosphere and are essential inputs for models that simulate plume rise and subsequent dispersal of volcanic gases and ash in the atmosphere. In simple terms, ESPs represent the boundary conditions that control the behavior of volcanic plumes. Because they cannot usually be measured during an eruption, they must be estimated from indirect observations and models, which introduces significant uncertainty.

Why is it important to understand how volcanic ash and gases disperse after an eruption?

Volcanic ash and gases can travel long distances and affect aviation safety, human health, infrastructure, and even climate. Fine ash particles are particularly hazardous for aircrafts, while ash fallout can disrupt communities and critical services on the ground. Gas emissions may also impact air quality and alter the atmospheric radiative budget. Understanding volcanic dispersion is therefore essential for forecasting the movement of volcanic clouds and issuing timely warnings. Reliable forecasts support risk mitigation strategies and enable more effective responses by civil protection agencies and aviation authorities.

What technologies are used to observe volcanic plumes?

Volcanic plumes are observed using a combination of satellite, ground-based, and, more rarely, airborne measurements. Satellite observations are crucial for tracking ash and gas clouds over large spatial scales and in near real time. Ground-based instruments, such as radar, cameras, and infrasound sensors, provide detailed information on plume dynamics close to the source. Increasingly, these observations are integrated with numerical models to infer eruption conditions. The combination of multiple data streams is essential for constraining ESPs and improving the reliability of plume simulations.

What are some of the recent advances in estimating Eruption Source Parameters?

Recent advances have focused on combining observations with numerical models to better constrain ESPs. Multi-sensor approaches, data inversion techniques, and improved plume models have significantly enhanced our ability to estimate eruption rates and plume dynamics. At the same time, high-resolution computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations provide deeper insights into the complex fluid dynamic processes governing plume behavior. However, these models are computationally expensive and unsuitable for real-time applications, highlighting the need for approaches that bridge the gap between physical realism and operational efficiency.

What strategies do you propose in your review to improve Eruption Source Parameters estimation?

A central contribution of this review is the proposal of a new class of operational models for volcanic plumes.

A central contribution of this review is the proposal of a new class of operational models for volcanic plumes. These models integrate the physical realism of high-fidelity CFD simulations with the efficiency of simplified models used in forecasting. In particular, the review highlights the potential of artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques to “learn” from CFD results and optimally calibrate the key variables controlling plume dynamics. This hybrid approach allows complex physical processes to be represented in a computationally efficient framework, making it suitable for real-time applications while retaining improved accuracy.

How does improved volcanic plume monitoring lead to more effective volcanic hazard assessment?

Improved monitoring leads to more accurate estimates of ESPs, which directly translate into better forecasts of plume rise and ash dispersion. This reduces uncertainty in hazard assessments and supports more reliable decision-making. For example, more accurate forecasts can help aviation authorities minimize disruptions while maintaining safety and enable civil protection agencies to issue targeted warnings. Ultimately, better integration of observations and models enhances the capacity to respond effectively during eruptions and to mitigate their societal and economic impacts.

What are the remaining questions or knowledge gaps where additional research is needed?

Further research is needed to improve the coupling between observations, physics-based models, and data-driven approaches.

Despite progress, significant challenges remain. ESPs are still difficult to constrain in real time, and uncertainties in both observations and models propagate into forecasts. The integration of diverse data sources is not yet fully optimized, and different estimation methods can yield inconsistent results. Further research is needed to improve the coupling between observations, physics-based models, and data-driven approaches. In particular, developing robust hybrid frameworks that combine CFD, simplified models, and machine learning represents a key direction for advancing both scientific understanding and operational forecasting.

—Antonio Costa (antonio.costa@ingv.it, 0000-0002-4987-6471), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy

Editor’s Note: It is the policy of AGU Publications to invite the authors of articles published in Reviews of Geophysics to write a summary for Eos Editors’ Vox.

Citation: Costa, A. (2026), From volcanic vents to safer skies, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO265022. Published on 27 May 2026. This article does not represent the opinion of AGU, Eos, or any of its affiliates. It is solely the opinion of the author(s). Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Ever-restless Mount Dukono erupts

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 05/27/2026 - 11:20
The volcano on Indonesia's Halmahera Island routinely ejects ash, volcanic gases, and volcanic bombs. In May 2026, the Global Volcanism Program reported nine actively erupting volcanoes in Indonesia—more than any other country at the time. Such activity is typical for the Southeast Asian archipelago, where eruptions have occurred at 55 volcanoes since the 1960s—the highest total for any country. Japan ranks second with eruptions at 40 volcanoes over that time period, followed by the United States with 39, according to Global Volcanism Program data.

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