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Abstract

The fault zone architecture may provide reliable information about the deformations in both on-fault and off-fault media. The outer damage zones of faults may extend for kilometers and exhibit structural anisotropy, which potentially causes electrical anisotropy in rocks. Thus, electrically anisotropic structures may indicate the dimensions and extent of fault damage zones. We investigated the electrical anisotropic structure of the sinistral Altyn Tagh fault (ATF), NW China, using magnetotelluric data collected in and around the Subei Basin. Our three-dimensional resistivity model reveals widespread anisotropic anomalies at depths <∼5 km. The directions of the minimum horizontal resistivity values of the anomalies inside the Qilian Shan southeast of the ATF are dominantly subparallel to the fault traces at the surface. At deeper levels (∼15–19 km and ∼33–43 km), the anisotropic anomalies are mainly concentrated near the northern strand of the ATF (NATF) and the North Yemahe fault (NYMF) in the northeastern Subei area. The mid-lower crust (∼33–43 km) inside the Qilian Shan is characterized by isotropy or weak anisotropy with low resistivities (∼10 Ωm), which deviate significantly from the values along the NATF. Our results indicate the presence of a ∼30 km wide off-fault damage zone along the NATF and NYMF in the shallow crust that thins downward to the lower crust. We propose that the distribution of anisotropic anomalies is influenced primarily by neighboring faults. An independent deformation model could be appropriate for evaluating the relationships between the ATF and thrust faults within the Qilian Shan.

Abstract

We investigate why the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) upper-level height forecast for December–February (DJF) 2023/24 differs from the expected El Niño response. These atypical height anomalies emerged despite the fact a strong El Niño was forecast. The analysis focuses on diagnosing the NMME forecasts of DJF 2023/24 for SSTs and 200-hPa heights initialized at the beginning of November 2023 relative to other ensemble mean NMME DJF forecasts dating back to 1982. The results demonstrate that forecasts of the 200-hPa height anomalies had a large contribution from warming trends in global SSTs. It is the combination of trends and the expected El Niño teleconnection that results in the forecast height anomalies. Increasingly, for forecasts of geopotential height anomalies during the recent El Niño winters, the amplitude of trends is nearly equal to the signal from El Niño and has implications for the climatological base period selection for seasonal forecasts.

Abstract

The interaction between volcanic activity and flank instability during the Christmas Eve eruption at Mount Etna in 2018 is explored, using a mechanically consistent inverse model fitting high spatial resolution SAR data. Inversions search for fractures that may be curved and can accommodate co-eval pressure and shear stress changes. Displacements associated with the eruption result from the interaction between two intrusion sources: a buried dyke and a curved sheared intrusion that fed the eruption. Moreover, we identify that the sheared magmatic intrusion induced the observed eastward slip on the Pernicana fault, while the Fiandaca fault was undergoing stress accumulation, which was suddenly released during a M5.0 seismic event. The Fiandaca fault is determined to be listric, rooting beneath the mobile eastern flank of the volcano. This study highlights the role of curved fractures, acting as sheared intrusions or as faults, in volcanoes exhibiting flank instabilities.

Abstract

Grabens, or valleys formed during extensional tectonic events, are common but rarely observed during formation. In November 2023, inelastic surface deformation formed abruptly along Iceland's plate boundary in Grindavík. We documented graben formation in real-time through satellite mapping (InSAR), seismicity, GNSS data, repeated lidar surveys, and field mapping. Five normal faults and ∼12 fissures ruptured the surface delineating two grabens separated by a horst, a context not present in other contemporary case studies. The graben normal faults slipped rapidly (over hours) and maximum surface motions coincided with the occurrence of turbulent seismic swarms in both space and time. Although 3 eruptions took place ∼15 km northeast of Grindavík from 2021 to 2023, attributed to magma intrusions (i.e., dikes), none of these also formed grabens. Thus, the Grindavík grabens shows evidence for tectonic origins. Real-time monitoring of these phenomena provide insight into graben formation on Earth and potentially on other planets.

Abstract

State-of-the-art coupled climate models struggle to accurately simulate historical variability and trends of Antarctic sea ice, impacting their reliability for future projections. Increasing horizontal resolution is expected to improve the representation of coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean processes at high latitudes. Here, we examine the historical changes in the Antarctic sea ice area and volume in High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project simulations against satellite data sets and ocean reanalyzes to assess the benefits of increased spatial resolution. Our results do not show considerable benefits when horizontal resolutions up to 0.25° in the ocean and 25 km in the atmosphere. Limited improvements are reported in the simulated historical sea ice trends, which are nevertheless model-dependent, and associated with the use of model components with more complex sea-ice parameterizations. Given the high computational cost of climate-scale simulations at high spatial resolution, we advocate prioritizing enhancements in sea-ice physics and the interactions among model components in coupled climate simulations.

Bridging classical data assimilation and optimal transport: the 3D-Var case
Marc Bocquet, Pierre J. Vanderbecken, Alban Farchi, Joffrey Dumont Le Brazidec, and Yelva Roustan
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 31, 335–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-335-2024, 2024
A novel approach, optimal transport data assimilation (OTDA), is introduced to merge DA and OT concepts. By leveraging OT's displacement interpolation in space, it minimises mislocation errors within DA applied to physical fields, such as water vapour, hydrometeors, and chemical species. Its richness and flexibility are showcased through one- and two-dimensional illustrations.

Characteristic features of latitudinal manifestations of the 23–24 April 2023 geomagnetic storm
Leonid Chernogor
Ann. Geophys. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/angeo-2024-9,2024
Revised manuscript under review for ANGEO (discussion: final response, 6 comments)
Ground-based magnetometer observations show that part of the near-Earth cross-tail current closed itself via the ionosphere, to which it was linked by the substorm current wedge, and manifested itself in the magnetograms acquired at high and equatorial latitude stations on the night side of the Earth. Observations suggest that the Bz interplanetary magnetic field component threshold for the formation of the substorm current wedge lies in the –(22–30) nT interval.

Abstract

Temperatures and pressures from high explosive detonations far exceed atmospheric conditions in typical combustion reactions, and consequently, detonation soot forms with physiochemical properties distinct from soot formed by combustion. In this study, samples of detonation soot from two high explosives, PBX 9502 and Composition B-3, were analyzed. Ice nucleation experiments on soot collected after controlled detonations were conducted in the laboratory to probe immersion and contact mode freezing. Samples nucleated ice at temperatures warmer than commercially available nanodiamonds, which has a mean nucleation temperature of −20.7°C. Ice nucleation rate coefficients increase rapidly by two to three orders of magnitude below −20°C for every sample. Size-selected 137 μm diameter particles produced during detonation in an ambient air atmosphere yield bimodal distributions of freezing temperature with primary and secondary nucleation modes centered at −20°C and −13°C, respectively. The presence of a secondary mode allows for enhanced ice nucleation rate coefficients (one to two orders of magnitude greater than samples without a secondary mode) at temperatures outside the influence of the primary mode (>−17°C). Given the observed onset nucleation temperatures of −9.2°C, our results imply that detonation soot of the type studied here would only need to reach an altitude of approximately 4 km to facilitate ice formation.

Abstract

The Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) aboard Aqua provides essential long-term data on vertical cloud fraction, particularly valuable in the Arctic region. This study offers a comprehensive assessment of Arctic vertical cloud fraction derived from AIRS through a comparison with independent ground- and space-based radar and lidar observations. In comparison to the measurements at the North Slope Alaska site, results reveal a significant underestimation of low-level cloud cover by AIRS, especially for near-surface clouds, while mid- and high-level cloud fractions show better consistency. In comparison to the satellite-based product from 3S-GEOPROF-COMB, the accuracy varies across different underlying surfaces (land vs. sea) and seasons. AIRS shows significant positive biases in mid-level cloud fraction over sea surfaces with sea ice concentration below 15%, indicating potential limitations in the cloud retrieval algorithm in regions with large sea ice variations. The issue of low-level clouds identification is primarily caused by the limited penetrating capability of infrared hyperspectral sensing and the accuracy of preceding surface and atmospheric state products, which diminish the accuracy of AIRS low-level cloud fraction.

Abstract

The Stratospheric Total Aerosol Counter (STAC) is a lightweight balloon-borne instrument that utilizes condensational growth techniques to measure the total aerosol concentration. STAC is a miniaturized version of the legacy Wyoming condensation particle counter that operated from 1974 through 2020 in the middle latitudes and polar regions, with a few measurements in the tropics. Here we provide a description of the STAC instrument and the total aerosol measurement record, demonstrating that typical total aerosol profiles exhibit a peak in number mixing ratio, with values between 800 and 2,000 particles per mg of air (mg−1), just below the lapse rate tropopause (LRT). In the tropics and middle latitudes, mixing ratios decrease above the LRT likely due to coagulation and scavenging that results in a transfer of mass to the fewer but larger aerosol particles of the Junge layer. Exceptions to this occur in the spring time in the middle latitudes where a new particle layer between 20 and 25 km is frequently observed. In the poles, total aerosol profiles exhibit two distinct features: new particle formation in austral spring, and an increasing mixing ratio above 17 km likely due to the presence of meteoric smoke that has been concentrated within the polar vortex. High observed stratospheric particle mixing ratios, in excess of 2,000 mg−1, are observed in the polar new particle layer and at the top of polar profiles.

Abstract

The position of the subtropical jet over the Himalayas (Himalayan jet) affects extreme precipitation and heat over Central and South Asia. We examine the influence of two major natural factors-the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and explosive volcanic eruptions—on Himalayan jet interannual variability during the past millennium using simulations from the Community Earth System Model. We find that both El Niño events and eruptions shift the Himalayan jet equatorward by up to 3°. If an El Niño occurs following an eruption, this enhances the equatorward Himalayan jet shift, while La Niña tends to favor poleward jet migration. Subtropical cooling during El Niño or following eruptions is the primary cause of equatorward Himalayan jet shifts, while poleward shifts are associated with subtropical warming. Consistent across the CMIP6 models over the historical period, our results suggest that both ENSO and eruptions are the key drivers of interannual Himalayan jet variability.

Abstract

A new ice refractive index compilation is reported for a broad spectrum ranging from 0.0443 to 106 μm, focusing on the pronounced temperature-dependence of ice optical properties in the far-infrared (far-IR) segment (15–100 μm). A sensitivity study assuming spherical particles shows that selecting ice refractive indices at 12 temperatures and 215 wavelengths in the far-IR region gives sufficient accuracy in interpolated refractive indices for developing a new ice crystal optical property database. Furthermore, we demonstrate the differences between the bulk single-scattering properties computed for hexagonal ice particles with this new compilation compared to a previous iteration at three far-IR wavelengths where substantial differences are noticed between the two ice refractive index compilations. We suggest that our new ice refractive index data set will improve downstream light-scattering applications for upcoming far-IR satellite missions and allow robust modeling of outgoing longwave radiation under ice cloud conditions.

Abstract

This study uses large eddy simulations to investigate nutrient transport and uptake in suspended macroalgal farms. Various farm configurations and oceanic forcing conditions are examined, with the farm base located near the nutricline depth. We introduce the Damkohler number Da to quantify the balance between nutrient consumption by macroalgae uptake and supply by farm-enhanced nutrient transport. Most cases exhibit low Da, indicating that farm-generated turbulence drives sufficient upward nutrient fluxes, supporting macroalgae growth. High Da and starvation may occur in fully grown farm blocks, a configuration that generates the weakest turbulence, particularly when combined with densely planted macroalgae or weak flow conditions. Flow stagnation within the farm due to macroalgae drag may constrain the uptake efficiency and further increase the starvation risk. Mitigation strategies involve timely harvesting, avoiding dense macroalgae canopies, and selecting farm locations with robust ocean currents and waves. This study provides insights for sustainable macroalgal farm planning.

Abstract

The distribution of tropical cyclone (TC) eye cloud heights is documented for the first time using compact Raman lidar (CRL) measurements with high spatial resolution. These cloud heights act as tracers for low-level vertical mixing in the eye region. Cloud height distributions using all available data from nine Atlantic TCs in 2021 and 2022 show significant vertical variance, dispelling the notion of a flat stratiform eye cloud deck. Eye cloud widths are multiscale, with shallow convective clouds dominating CRL returns. Data from Hurricane Sam (2021) highlight the evolution of shallow convective clouds in the TC eye and their associated temperature inversions. The frequent appearance of convective eye clouds, along with observed vertical wind fluctuations, suggests that vertical mixing from the boundary layer frequently occurs in the TC eye, even beneath strong inversions. This strong vertical mixing should be accurately portrayed by TC simulations and forecasts.

Abstract

The study presents (a) a 44-year wintertime climatology of resolved gravity wave (GW) fluxes and forcing in the extratropical stratosphere using ERA5, and (b) their composite evolution around gradual (final warming) and abrupt (sudden warming) transitions in the wintertime circulation, focusing on lateral fluxes. The transformed Eulerian mean equations are leveraged to provide a glimpse of the importance of GW lateral propagation (i.e., horizontal propagation) toward driving the wintertime stratospheric circulation by analyzing the relative contribution of the vertical versus meridional flux dissipation. The relative contribution from lateral propagation is found to be notable, especially in the Austral winter stratosphere where lateral (vertical) momentum flux convergence provides a peak climatological forcing of up to −0.5 (−3.5) m/s/day around 60°S at 40–45 km altitude. Prominent lateral propagation in the wintertime midlatitudes also contributes to the formation of belts of GW activity in both hemispheres.

Abstract

Impact craters that form on every planetary body provide a record of planetary surface evolution. On heavily cratered surfaces, new craters that form often overlap antecedent craters, but it is unknown how the presence of antecedent craters alters impact crater formation. We use overlapping complex crater pairs on the lunar surface to constrain this process and find that crater rims are systematically lower where they intersect antecedent crater basins. The rim morphology of the new crater depends on the depth of the antecedent crater and the degree of overlap between the craters. Our observations suggest that new craters do not always obliterate underlying topography and that transient rim collapse is altered by antecedent topography. This study represents the first formalization of the influence of antecedent topography on rim morphology and provides process insight into a common impact scenario relevant to the geology of potential Artemis landing sites.

Abstract

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) drive space weather effects at Earth and the heliosphere. Predicting their arrival is a major part of space weather forecasting. In 2013, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center started collecting predictions from the community, developing an Arrival Time Scoreboard (ATSB). Riley et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018sw001962) analyzed the first 5 years of the ATSB, finding a bias of a few hours and uncertainty of order 15 hr. These metrics have been routinely quoted since 2018, but have not been updated despite continued predictions. We revise analysis of the ATSB using a sample 3.5 times the size of that in the original study. We find generally the same overall metrics, a bias of −2.5 hr, mean absolute error of 13.2 hr, and standard deviation of 17.4 hr, with only a slight improvement comparing between the previously-used and new sets. The most well-established, frequently-submitted model results tend to outperform those from seldomly-contributed models. These “best” models show a slight improvement over the 11 year span, with more scatter between the models during early times and a convergence toward the same error metrics in recent years. We find little evidence of any correlations between the arrival time errors and any other properties. The one noticeable exception is a tendency for late predictions for short transit times and vice versa. We propose that any model-driven systematic errors may be washed out by the uncertainties in CME reconstructions in characterization of the background solar wind, and suggest that improving these may be the key to better predictions.

Abstract

Starting from 29 January 2022, a series of solar eruptions triggered a moderate geomagnetic storm on 3 February 2022, followed subsequently by another. Despite the typically minimal impact of unintense storms on space technology, 38 out of the 49 Starlink satellites underwent orbital decay, re-entering Earth's atmosphere. These satellite losses were attributed to enhanced atmospheric drag conditions. This study employs numerical simulations, utilizing our test particle simulation code, to investigate the dynamics of the inner radiation belt during the two magnetic storms. Our analysis reveals an increase in proton density and fluxes during the transition from the recovery phase of the first storm to the initial phase of the second, primarily driven by intense solar wind dynamic pressure. Additionally, we assess Single Event Upset (SEU) rates, which exhibit a 50% increase in comparison to initial quiet conditions.

Abstract

Sporadic E (Es) layers are plasma irregularities significantly affecting radio communication and navigation systems. And, their dominant formation mechanism at mid-latitudes, known as the wind shear theory, suggests that they serve as indicators of the atmosphere-ionosphere coupling processes in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere region. On 15 January 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'api submarine volcanic eruption provided a unique opportunity to investigate the Es layer responses to lower atmospheric perturbations. Using the FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2 radio occultation and ground-based ionosonde observations, this study reveals the spatial-temporal behaviors of the Es layers after the Hunga volcanic eruption. The results show that significant Es layer perturbations occurred over the northwest of the epicenter ∼4 hr after the eruption and lasted for approximately ∼22 hr. We also calculated the geographical distribution of the vertical ion convergence (VIC) using neutral winds obtained from the Michelson Interferometer for Global High-resolution Thermospheric Imaging on the Ionospheric Connection Explorer (ICON) satellite. A comparison of the geographical distribution of positive VIC and Es layer perturbations shows a good agreement, which indicates that the enhanced Es layers are caused by strong VIC associated with the atmospheric perturbations due to the eruption. This study presents observational evidence for coupling between the Es layer and lower atmospheric perturbations, which can be helpful for understanding the occasionality and variability of Es layer occurrence.

Science, Volume 385, Issue 6705, July 2024.