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Low-cost instrumentation combined with volunteering and citizen science educational initiatives allowed the deployment of L-band scintillation monitors to remote sense areas that are geomagnetically conjugated and located at low-to-mid latitudes in the American sector (Quebradillas in Puerto Rico and Santa Maria in Brazil). On 10 and 11 October, 2023, both monitors detected severe scintillations, some reaching dip latitudes beyond 26°N. The observations show conjugacy in the spatio-temporal evolution of the scintillation-causing irregularities. With the aid of collocated all-sky airglow imager observations, it was shown that the observed scintillation event was caused by extreme equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) reaching geomagnetic apex altitudes exceeding 2,200 km. The observations suggest that geomagnetic conjugate large-scale structures produced conditions for the development of intermediate scale (few 100 s of meters) in both hemispheres, leading to scintillation at conjugate locations. Finally, unlike previous reports, it is shown that the extreme EPBs-driven scintillation reported here developed under geomagnetically quiet conditions.

The distribution and magnitude of forces driving lithospheric deformation in the India-Eurasia collision zone have been debated over many decades. Here we test a two-dimensional (2-D) Thin Viscous Shell approach that has been adapted to explicitly account for displacement on major faults and investigate the impact of lateral variations in depth-averaged lithospheric strength. We present a suite of dynamic models to explain the key features from new high-resolution Sentinel-1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar as well as Global Navigation Satellite System velocities. Comparisons between calculated and geodetically observed velocity and strain rate fields indicate: (a) internal buoyancy forces from Gravitational Potential Energy acting on a relatively weak region of highest topography (>2,000 m) contribute to dilatation of the high plateau and contraction on the margins; (b) a weak central Tibetan Plateau (∼1021 Pa s compared to far-field depth-averaged effective viscosity of at least 1022–1023 Pa s) is required to explain the observed long-wavelength eastward velocity variation; (c) localized displacement on fault systems enables strain concentration and clockwise rotation around the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis. We discuss the tectonic implications for rheology of the lithosphere, distribution of geodetic strain, and partitioning of active faulting and seismicity.

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events, originating from solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections, present significant hazards to space exploration and technology on Earth. Accurate prediction of these high-energy events is essential for safeguarding astronauts, spacecraft, and electronic systems. In this study, we conduct an in-depth investigation into the application of multimodal data fusion techniques for the prediction of high-energy SEP events, particularly ∼100 MeV events. Our research utilizes six machine learning (ML) models, each finely tuned for time series analysis, including Univariate Time Series (UTS), Image-based model (Image), Univariate Feature Concatenation (UFC), Univariate Deep Concatenation (UDC), Univariate Deep Merge (UDM), and Univariate Score Concatenation (USC). By combining time series proton flux data with solar X-ray images, we exploit complementary insights into the underlying solar phenomena responsible for SEP events. Rigorous evaluation metrics, including accuracy, F1-score, and other established measures, are applied, along with K-fold cross-validation, to ensure the robustness and generalization of our models. Additionally, we explore the influence of observation window sizes on classification accuracy.

The accurate representation of Cold Air Outbreaks (CAOs) and affiliated mixed-phase boundary layer (BL) clouds in models is challenging. How BL cloud properties evolve during CAOs and their dependence on meteorological conditions is not well understood but is important for the simulation of Earth's energy budgets. Here the properties of polar BL clouds over the North Atlantic (NA) and Southern Ocean (SO) are compared using observations from the Measurements of Aerosol Radiation and CloUds over the SO (MARCUS) and CAOs in the Marine BL Experiment (COMBLE) conducted over the NA. MARCUS observations show a stronger BL inversion than COMBLE, with a higher mean EIS (estimated inversion strength)/LTS (lower tropospheric stability) of −0.03 K/13 K compared to COMBLE’s −3.2 K/9.3 K. 39% of CAOs observed during COMBLE were intense with M > 5 K, while MARCUS only had 1.3%. 78%/72% of clouds sampled in CAOs during COMBLE/MARCUS had cloud top heights <4 km. The mean BL cloud top height was over 400 m higher, and the BL was over 500 m deeper for M of 10 K compared to 0 K for both regions. MARCUS observed a 27% moister BL structure than COMBLE when M > 5 K due to stronger BL inversion trapping more moisture within the BL. Under the same LTS, EIS, and M conditions, MARCUS observed a 12% drier BL structure, and clouds were 46% more turbulent than COMBLE. During CAOs, 54% of single-layer BL clouds sampled during MARCUS had liquid-dominated bases compared to 39% during COMBLE.

Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions are a leading source of uncertainty in estimating climate sensitivity. Remote marine boundary layers where accumulation mode (∼100–400 nm diameter) aerosol concentrations are relatively low are very susceptible to aerosol changes. These regions also experience heightened Aitken mode aerosol (∼10–100 nm) concentrations associated with ocean biology. Aitken aerosols may significantly influence cloud properties and evolution by replenishing cloud condensation nuclei and droplet number lost through precipitation (i.e., Aitken buffering). We use a large-eddy simulation with an Aitken-mode enabled microphysics scheme to examine the role of Aitken buffering in a mid-latitude decoupled boundary layer cloud regime observed on 15 July 2017 during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic flight campaign: cumulus rising into stratocumulus under elevated Aitken concentrations (∼100–200 mg−1). In situ measurements are used to constrain and evaluate this case study. Our simulation accurately captures observed aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions and reveals time-evolving processes driving regime development and evolution. Aitken activation into the accumulation mode in the cumulus layer provides a reservoir for turbulence and convection to carry accumulation aerosols into the drizzling stratocumulus layer above. Further Aitken activation occurs aloft in the stratocumulus layer. Together, these activation events buffer this cloud regime against precipitation removal, reducing cloud break-up and associated increases in heterogeneity. We examine cloud evolution sensitivity to initial aerosol conditions. With halved accumulation number, Aitken aerosols restore accumulation concentrations, maintain droplet number similar to original values, and prevent cloud break-up. Without Aitken aerosols, precipitation-driven cloud break-up occurs rapidly. In this regime, Aitken buffering sustains brighter, more homogeneous clouds for longer.

This study investigates the anthropogenic contribution to the summer precipitation changes over southern China and the underlying physical mechanisms. Observations show a wetting trend over southeastern China (SEC) but a drying trend over southwestern China (SWC) in summer of 1961–2014. The dipole pattern can be reasonably reproduced by the anthropogenic forcing simulations of CMIP6 models but with weak trends under the external natural forcing simulations, suggesting the vital human contribution to the observed changes. Particularly, anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) dominate the wetting trend over SEC, while the drying trend over SWC is primarily attributed to anthropogenic aerosol (AA) emissions. Further analysis shows that the GHG concentrations enhance the subtropical high over the western North Pacific (WNP) via the heterogeneous warming of the sea surface temperature, decrease the sea level pressure over eastern China, and increase the atmospheric moisture, facilitating the moisture flux convergence (MFC) and the precipitation over SEC. The GHG-induced wetting trend is somewhat offset by the inhibited evaporation due to the AA forcing. For SWC, the decreased precipitation is influenced by the anomalous high pressure from India to WNP, which is closely associated with the enhanced Asian AA emission and the interhemispheric asymmetrical distribution of AA emissions. In the upper troposphere, the uneven AA emissions between South and East Asia and Europe weaken the East Asian summer subtropical jet, resisting the western moisture to SWC. Both factors in the low-and-high levels suppress the MFC and precipitation over SWC, counteracted by the thermodynamical effects of GHG forcing.

The dynamic variations of agricultural drought can reflect the water shortage situation of the agricultural system, and there is a progressive relationship in the response of agricultural drought to meteorological drought on a spatiotemporal scale. In this study, the vegetation health index and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index were adopted as agricultural and meteorological drought indicators, respectively. Additionally, using the three-dimensional spatiotemporal clustering technology, the dynamic evolutions of typical drought events were clarified, and the spatiotemporal response characteristics of agricultural drought to meteorological drought were revealed. The results indicated that: (a) there were 81 agricultural drought events in the North China Plain (NCP) during 1982–2020, with a largest drought severity (12.82 × 104 month km2), a 6-month duration, and a 23.24 × 104 km2 affected area occurring in the No. 4 event; (b) from the 1980s to the 2010s, the agricultural drought gradually decreased and large-scale droughts mainly concentrated in the border areas of Hebei, Shandong, and Henan; and (c) a total of 13 drought event pairs were successfully matched in the NCP, including 7 pairs of “one-to-one,” 4 pairs of “one-to-many,” 1 pair of “many-to-one,” and 1 pair of “many-to-many.” The spatiotemporal responses of agricultural drought were elucidated in a three-dimensional perspective, which can propose a new approach for establishing drought propagation model, predicting future agricultural drought conditions, improving ecological environment quality, and can also be applied for the investigation of other drought types.

Planetary boundary layer (PBL) modeling is a primary contributor to uncertainties in a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model due to difficulties in modeling the turbulent transport of surface fluxes. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) has provided many PBL schemes that may feature a non-local transport component driven by large eddies or a one-and-half order turbulence closure model, but few of them possess the two features at once. In the present study, a turbulent kinetic energy (TKE)-based eddy diffusivity/viscosity method is integrated into the non-local Asymmetric Convective Model version 2 (ACM2) PBL scheme and implemented in WRF. The original first-order eddy-diffusivity term in ACM2 is discarded and an extra prognostic equation for TKE, which considers the tendency of TKE by buoyancy, wind shear, vertical transport, and dissipative processes, is supplied to calculate the diffusivity/viscosity. Non-local transport is modeled the same as ACM2 using the transilient matrix method. Idealized tests using prescribed surface heat flux and roughness length are performed. TKE-ACM2 displays advantages over the PBL scheme developed by Bougeault and Lacarrère (hereinafter referred to as Boulac) and ACM2 in the wind speeds (WS) profile because it better matches large-eddy simulations results in the surface momentum flux. Real case simulations show that TKE-ACM2 generally outperforms in the diurnal vertical profiles of WS under stable conditions. TKE-ACM2 also produces a better alignment under moderately unstable conditions in the early nighttime at the urban LiDAR station. However, the model exhibits discrepancies more apparently under a more unstable condition during the winter daytime.

The evolution of the magma ocean that occupied the early Earth is influenced by the buoyancy of crystals in silicate liquid. At lower mantle pressures, silicate crystals are denser than the iso-chemical liquid, but heavy elements like iron can cause crystals to float if they partition into the liquid phase. Crystal flotation allows for a basal magma ocean, which might explain geochemical anomalies in mantle-derived magmas, seismic anomalies in the lower mantle, and the source of the Earth's early magnetic field. To examine whether a basal magma ocean is gravitationally stable, we investigate the degree of iron partitioning between (Mg,Fe)SiO3 liquid and bridgmanite. By utilizing ab initio molecular dynamics simulations coupled with thermodynamic integration, we find that iron partitions into the liquid, and increasingly so with increasing pressure. Bridgmanite crystals are found to be buoyant at lower mantle conditions, stabilizing the basal magma ocean.

Climate change represents a profound threat to the diversity and stability of global climate zones. However, the complex interplay between climate change and elevation in shaping climate heterogeneity is not yet fully understood. Here, we combine Shannon's diversity index (SHDI) with the Köppen-Geiger climate classification to explore the altitudinal distributions of global climate heterogeneity; and their responses to climate change. The study reveals a distinctive pattern: SHDI, a proxy for climate heterogeneity tends to slow down or decline at lower elevations with increasing temperatures, while at higher elevations, it continues to rise due to continuing cold conditions. Examination of climate simulations, both with and without anthropogenic forcing, confirms that observed changes in climate heterogeneity are primarily attributable to anthropogenic climate change within these high-elevation regions. This study underscores the importance of high-elevation regions as not only custodians of diverse climate types but also potential refuges for species fleeing warmer climates.

We examine tropical rainfall from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Atmosphere Model version 4 (GFDL AM4) at three horizontal resolutions of 100 km, 50 km, and 25 km. The model produces more intense rainfall at finer resolutions, but a large discrepancy still exists between the simulated and the observed frequency distribution. We use a theoretical precipitation scaling diagnostic to examine the frequency distribution of the simulated rainfall. The scaling accurately produces the frequency distribution at moderate-to-high intensity (≥10 mm day−1). Intense tropical rainfall at finer resolutions is produced primarily from the increased contribution of resolved precipitation and enhanced updrafts. The model becomes more sensitive to the grid-scale updrafts than local thermodynamics at high rain rates as the contribution from the resolved precipitation increases.

A Cimel Sun-sky-lunar photometer (CE318-T) is designed to perform daytime and nighttime photometric measurements and calculate diurnal cycle of aerosol optical depth (AOD). Nevertheless, the determination of nocturnal AOD from CE318-T requires a precise knowledge of extraterrestrial lunar irradiance, which significantly changes with moon's phase angle (MPA) and lunar libration in a single night. This study evaluated the 1-year nocturnal AODs at Lanzhou by using three different methods, which were validated by collocated measurements of DIAL Lidar (as a reference) and Cimel software (as a proxy). The results indicated that three independent approaches could implement a similar performance to compute nocturnal AOD near full moon phase (i.e., MPA = 0°) under moderate aerosol loading. The spectral AOD values at nighttime calculated by ROLO Lunar Langley (Robotic Lunar Observatory model) and Sun-moon Gain Factor (SMGF) methods are significantly underestimated under low moon's illumination or high MPA (MPA < −47° or MPA > 47°) and distinctly dependent on MPA. The RIMO correction factor (RCF) (ROLO Implementation for Moon photometry Observation correction factor) method could compensate the underestimated extraterrestrial lunar irradiances of ROLO model for about 6.76%–9.78%, and thus greatly improve the calculation accuracy of nighttime AOD. The day/night coherence transition test has demonstrated that we would obtain a good diurnal variation of AODs at Lanzhou after RCF correction. The overall averages of nocturnal AOD440nm differences between Cimel software and ROLO model and SMGF method are 0.064 ± 0.024 and 0.052 ± 0.022, respectively, while the corresponding difference of RCF is less than 0.021 ± 0.014 for all wavelengths, falling within uncertainty range of AERONET AOD products (∼±0.02). The diurnal variations of AODs determined from RCF method agree well with synchronous results of DIAL Lidar, with total mean AOD532nm differences of 0.038 ± 0.024 and 0.023 ± 0.017 in daytime and nighttime, respectively. The spectral AODs computed from RCF method are well consistent with Cimel software, although there are some discrepancies under low AOD cases (AOD440nm < 0.30), and the overall average of AOD440nm differences are less than −0.0053 ± 0.002 and −0.0185 ± 0.013 in daytime and nighttime, respectively. Our results confirmed that the CE318-T photometer can be reasonably calculated nighttime AOD and Ångström exponent (AE440–870nm) at urban Lanzhou by using three independent methods, although the former two need to be greatly improved under low moon's illumination. The RCF method was proved to reliably calculate nocturnal AOD from moonlight irradiance, which didn't rely on MPA. A more accurate lunar irradiance model needs to be developed to improve the underestimation of current ROLO model. Long-term climatological information of nocturnal AOD is crucial for comprehensively characterizing the diurnal variations of aerosol optical properties and atmospheric boundary layer structure during the winter at typical northern city of China, which deserves to be further investigated in the future.

The planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) is a crucial indicator reflecting the region of the atmosphere characterized by continuous turbulence. Here, we use radiosonde and surface meteorological observations (4–7 times per day, year-round measurements) during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition to derive the PBLH (PBLH MOSAiC ), and further evaluate the PBLH from the ERA5 reanalysis (PBLH ERA5 ). Comparisons between PBLH MOSAiC and PBLH ERA5 from different perspectives reveal that: (a) The overestimation of PBLH ERA5 when the sea ice concentration is >90% is significant with the centered root mean squared error reaching up to 201 m; (b) The difference between the two products is notably pronounced in cold seasons, while it is comparatively diminished in warm seasons; (c) In neutral boundary layers, differences in PBLH ERA5 are larger compared with stable and convective boundary layers. In addition, the analysis of error sources indicates that the bias of PBLH ERA5 is sensitive to the bias of vertical thermal structure and wind speed profiles in ERA5 data sets in all conditions. Finally, we find a Random Forest model effectively reduces the bias of PBLH ERA5 with the index of agreement reaching up to 0.71 in the test data set, while a multiple linear regression demonstrates comparable performance to the Random Forest model.

Bright basal reflections from the Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionosphere Sounding (MARSIS) have been proposed to be consistent with permittivities characteristic of a wet material beneath the south polar layered deposits (SPLD). The characterization of a recently formed impact crater highlight the existence of a several meters thick ice-poor layer associated to a unit blanketing a large portion of the SPLD. We revise the radar propagation model used to invert the basal permittivity by including a surficial thin layer. We find that the inverted basal permittivity is highly sensitive to the properties of such a layer, with solutions ranging from common dry rocks to an unambiguously wet base. We advocate toward a better characterization of the surficial cover to assess the wet or dry nature for the base, and possibly reconcile most of the literature on the topic.

The far limit of a plate subduction process and its related far-field dynamic process are fundamental topics for plate tectonics. The Great Khingan Range (GKAR) in the western flank of NE China is currently under the far-field influence of the Pacific plate subduction. Benefiting from the newly deployed seismic arrays in the northern GKAR, we take full advantage of seismic data from both temporary and permanent networks and employ an improved scheme of the H-κ stacking method by introducing surface wave dispersion to obtain the integrated maps of Moho depth and crustal bulk Vp/Vs ratio in this region. Our results show that the Moho depth has a giant step near the North–South Gravity Lineament (NSGL). Meanwhile, the distribution of bulk Vp/Vs ratio presents a north–south difference roughly by 50°N, where the south subregion consists of a collage of high and low Vp/Vs ratio; by contrast, the north subregion is characterized by unified high values. The east-west structural discrepancies across the NSGL from the Earth's surface to the mantle transition zone indicate the difference in the strength of modifications between the near and far-fields from the Pacific plate subduction. The complicated distribution of the Vp/Vs ratio in the south subregion supports that secondary small-scale upwellings underneath the Cenozoic volcanic groups dominate the tectonic reworking in this area. The lack of Cenozoic volcanism and a more straightforward distribution of the Vp/Vs ratio in the north subregion might allude to a tectonically inactive part of NE China.

Volcanic tremor is a semi-continuous seismic and/or acoustic signal that occurs at time scales ranging from seconds to years, with variable amplitudes and spectral features. Tremor sources have often been related to fluid movement and degassing processes, and are recognized as a potential geophysical precursor and co-eruptive geophysical signal. Eruption forecasting and monitoring efforts need a fast, robust method to automatically detect, characterize, and catalog volcanic tremor. Here we develop VOlcano Infrasound and Seismic Spectrogram Network (VOISS-Net), a pair of convolutional neural networks (one for seismic, one for acoustic) that can detect tremor in near real-time and classify it according to its spectral signature. Specifically, we construct an extensive data set of labeled seismic and low-frequency acoustic (infrasound) spectrograms from the 2021–2022 eruption of Pavlof Volcano, Alaska, and use it to train VOISS-Net to differentiate between different tremor types, explosions, earthquakes and noise. We use VOISS-Net to classify continuous data from past Pavlof Volcano eruptions (2007, 2013, 2014, 2016, and 2021–2022). VOISS-Net achieves an 81.2% and 90.0% accuracy on the seismic and infrasound test sets respectively, and successfully characterizes tremor sequences for each eruption. By comparing the derived seismoacoustic timelines of each eruption with the corresponding eruption chronologies compiled by the Alaska Volcano Observatory, our model identifies changes in tremor regimes that coincide with observed volcanic activity. VOISS-Net can aid tremor-related monitoring and research by making consistent tremor catalogs more accessible.

We propose a new approach capable of measuring local seismic anisotropy from 6C (three-component translation and three-component rotation) amplitude observations of ambient seismic noise data. Our recent theory demonstrates that the amplitude ratio of 6C cross-correlation functions (CCFs) enables retrieving the local phase velocity. This differs from conventional velocity extraction methods based on the travel time. Its local sensitivity kernel beneath the 6C seismometer allows us to study anisotropy from azimuth-dependent CCFs, avoiding path effects. Such point measurements have great potential in planetary exploration, ocean bottom observations, or volcanology. We apply this approach to a small seismic array at Pin˜ $\widetilde{n}$on Flat Observatory (PFO) in southern California, array-deriving retrieves rotational ground motions from microseismic noise data. The stress-induced anisotropy is well resolved and compatible with other tomography results, providing constraints on the origin of depth-dependent seismic anisotropy.

We perform Rayleigh-wave group-velocity dispersion measurements from 14,706 regional-waveforms at periods of 10–120 s, followed by ray-based tomography and inversion to obtain 3D-V s structure of the crust and upper mantle. The group-velocity maps have 3–5° lateral resolution, and V s models have ∼3%–7% average-V s uncertainty. The Moho depth is assigned to the bottom of the steepest-gradient layer with V s between 4.1 and 4.5 km s−1, and the sedimentary-layers have V s  ≤ 2.9 km s−1. Indian cratons have high average-crustal-V s of 3.6–3.9 km s−1 and thickness of 40–50 km. The intervening rift-basins are filled with low-V s sedimentary-rocks. The Himalayan Foreland Basin has along-arc variation in sedimentary thickness with the thickest layer (8–10 km) beneath the Eastern Ganga Basin. The Indian lithospheric mantle has high-V s (>4.4 km s−1), and along with high-V s crust attest to a cold, rigid lithosphere. This lithosphere underthrust entire Western Tibet and up to the Qiangtang Terrane in Central-Eastern Tibet. The top of the underthrusting Indian-crust is marked by lower-V s and thrust-fault earthquakes. The shallow crust beneath Tibet (0–10 km) has high-V s and is mechanically strong; whereas, the mid-crust (20–40 km) has ∼5%–10% low-V s anomalies due to radiogenic/shear heating within the thickened crust. This layer is weak and decouples the deformation of the shallow and deep layers. Low-V s upper-mantle with deeper high-V s layer is present beneath the Deccan and Raj-Mahal Traps, suggesting plume-volcanism related thermal anomaly and refertilization of the upper mantle. The intra-cratonic basins with circular geometry, high-V s lithosphere and no basement earthquakes, possibly formed by thermal subsidence of isostatically-balanced cratonic lithosphere.

Seismic faults are known to exhibit a high level of spatial and temporal complexity, and the causes and consequences of this complexity have been the topic of numerous research works in the past decade. In this paper, we investigate the origins and the structure of this complexity by considering a numerical model of laboratory earthquake experiment, where we introduce a fault with homogeneous mechanical properties but allow it to evolve spontaneously to its natural level of complexity. This is achieved by coupling the elastic deformability of the off-fault medium (and therefore allowing for heterogeneous stress fields to develop) and the discrete degradation and gouge formation at the fault plane (and therefore allowing for structural heterogeneity to develop). Numerical results show the development of persistent stress, damage, and gouge thickness heterogeneities, with a much larger variability in space than in time. Strong positive correlations are found between these quantities, which suggest a positive feedback between local normal stress and damage rate, only mildly mitigated by the mobility of the granular gouge in the interface. For a wide range of confining stresses, after a sufficient number of seismic cycles, the fault reaches a state of established disorder with a constant roughness, a certain amount of periodicity at the millimetric scale, and a power law decay of the Power Spectral Density at smaller spatial scales. The typical height-to-wavelength ratio of geometrical asperities and the correlations between stress and damage profiles are in good agreement with previous field or lab estimates.

The present study considers tropical cyclogenesis as a multi-stage process in which pre-cursor disturbances develop first and a fraction of them further strengthen to become a tropical cyclone (TC). Using this framework, we analyze the impact of Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO)- associated anomalous large-scale environmental conditions on the triggering of tropical convective clusters (TCCs)—a type of pre-cursor disturbance—and the TCC-to-TC transition in the western Pacific. We find that, within the MJO's lifecycle, the modulation of the TCC frequency by the MJO drives TC genesis frequency anomalies earlier than the TCC-to-TC transition rate. Also, the fluctuation of TCC occurrence frequency is most strongly associated with the MJO's large-scale ascent and relative humidity anomalies, while that of the transition of TCCs to a TC is mainly associated with the MJO's vorticity anomalies. Our results suggest the distinct roles of large-scale environmental variables in different stages of tropical cyclogenesis.