Abstract
In this paper the meteorological drivers of North American Monsoon (NAM) extreme precipitation events (EPEs) are identified and analyzed. First, the NAM area and its subregions are distinguished using self-organizing maps applied to the Climate Prediction Center global precipitation data set. This reveals distinct subregions, shaped by the inhomogeneous geographic features of the NAM area, with distinct extreme precipitation character and drivers. Next, defining EPEs as days when subregion-mean precipitation exceeds the 95th percentile of rainy days, five synoptic features and one mesoscale feature are investigated as potential drivers of EPEs. Essentially all EPEs can be associated with at least one selected driver, with only one event remaining unclassified. This analysis shows the dominant role of Gulf of California moisture surges, mesoscale convective systems and frontal systems in generating NAM extreme precipitation. Finally, a frequency and probability analysis is conducted to contrast precipitation distributions conditioned on the associated meteorological drivers. The findings demonstrate that the co-occurrence of multiple features does not necessarily enhance the EPE probability.
Digitization and calibration of historical solar absorption infrared spectra from the Jungfraujoch site
Jamal Makkor, Mathias Palm, Matthias Buschmann, Emmanuel Mahieu, Martyn P. Chipperfield, and Justus Notholt
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2024-93,2024
Preprint under review for AMT (discussion: open, 0 comments)
During the years 1950 and 1951, Marcel Migeotte took regular solar measurements in form of paper rolls at the Jungfraujoch site. These historical spectra proved valuable for atmospheric research and needed to be saved for posterity. Therefore, a digitization method which used image processing techniques was developed to extract them from the historical paper rolls. This allowed them to be saved in a machine-readable format that is easily accessible to the scientific community.
Rapid quantitative analysis of SVOCs in indoor surface film using Direct Analysis in Real Time mass spectrometry: A case study on phthalates
Ying Zhou, Longkun He, Jiang Tan, Jiang Zhou, and Yingjun Liu
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2024-104,2024
Preprint under review for AMT (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This study presents a sensitive DART-MS/MS method for the fast and accurate quantification of SVOCs in organic films without the need for pre-treatment. This method developed herein offers substantially improved repeatability in the absence of internal standards. By utilizing MS/MS analysis, separation of isomeric components within films becomes possible. These developments increase the feasibility of the DART-MS approach for studying the dynamics of SVOCs in indoor surface film.
Regional seismic risk assessment based on ground conditions in Uzbekistan
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Bakhtiyorovich Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2133–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, 2024
For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on geographic information system platforms, allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Representing effects of surface heterogeneity in a multi-plume eddy diffusivity mass flux boundary layer parameterization
Nathan P. Arnold
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5041–5056, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5041-2024, 2024
Earth system models often represent the land surface at smaller scales than the atmosphere, but surface–atmosphere coupling uses only aggregated surface properties. This study presents a method to allow heterogeneous surface properties to modify boundary layer updrafts. The method is tested in single column experiments. Updraft properties are found to reasonably covary with surface conditions, and simulated boundary layer variability is enhanced over more heterogeneous land surfaces.
A downward-counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2147–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, 2024
To identify flash flood potential in Germany, we shifted the most extreme rainfall events from the last 22 years systematically across Germany and simulated the consequent runoff reaction. Our results show that almost all areas in Germany have not seen the worst-case scenario of flood peaks within the last 22 years. With a slight spatial change of historical rainfall events, flood peaks of a factor of 2 or more would be achieved for most areas. The results can aid disaster risk management.
Assessment of coastal inundation triggered by multiple drivers in Ca Mau Peninsula, Vietnam
Hung Nghia Nguyen, Quan Quan Le, Dung Viet Nguyen, Tan Hong Cao, Toan Quang To, Hai Do Dac, Melissa Wood, and Ivan D. Haigh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-107,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
The paper focuses on inundation process in a highest climate vulnerability area of the Mekong Delta, main drivers and future impacts, this is importance alert to decision makers and stakeholder for investment of infrastructure, adaptation approaches and mitigating impacts.
Scale separation for gravity wave analysis from 3D temperature observations in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region
Björn Linder, Peter Preusse, Qiuyu Chen, Ole Martin Christensen, Lukas Krasauskas, Linda Megner, Manfred Ern, and Jörg Gumbel
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 3829–3841, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-3829-2024, 2024
The Swedish research satellite MATS (Mesospheric Airglow/Aerosol Tomography and Spectroscopy) is designed to study atmospheric waves in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. These waves perturb the temperature field, and thus, by observing three-dimensional temperature fluctuations, their properties can be quantified. This pre-study uses synthetic MATS data generated from a general circulation model to investigate how well wave properties can be retrieved.
WRF-Comfort: simulating microscale variability in outdoor heat stress at the city scale with a mesoscale model
Alberto Martilli, Negin Nazarian, E. Scott Krayenhoff, Jacob Lachapelle, Jiachen Lu, Esther Rivas, Alejandro Rodriguez-Sanchez, Beatriz Sanchez, and José Luis Santiago
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5023–5039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5023-2024, 2024
Here, we present a model that quantifies the thermal stress and its microscale variability at a city scale with a mesoscale model. This tool can have multiple applications, from early warnings of extreme heat to the vulnerable population to the evaluation of the effectiveness of heat mitigation strategies. It is the first model that includes information on microscale variability in a mesoscale model, something that is essential for fully evaluating heat stress.
A computationally efficient parameterization of aerosol, cloud and precipitation pH for application at global and regional scale (EQSAM4Clim-v12)
Swen Metzger, Samuel Rémy, Jason E. Williams, Vincent Huijnen, and Johannes Flemming
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5009–5021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5009-2024, 2024
EQSAM4Clim has recently been revised to provide an accurate and efficient method for calculating the acidity of atmospheric particles. It is based on an analytical concept that is sufficiently fast and free of numerical noise, which makes it attractive for air quality forecasting. Version 12 allows the calculation of aerosol composition based on the gas–liquid–solid and the reduced gas–liquid partitioning with the associated water uptake for both cases, including the acidity of the aerosols.
Abstract
Accurately determining the seismic structure of the continental deep crust is crucial for understanding its geological evolution and continental dynamics in general. However, traditional tools such as surface waves often face challenges in solving the trade-offs between elastic parameters and discontinuities. In this work, we present a new approach that combines two established inversion techniques, receiver function H-κ stacking and joint inversion of surface wave dispersion and receiver function waveforms, within a Bayesian Monte Carlo (MC) framework to address these challenges. Demonstrated by synthetic tests, the new method greatly reduces trade-offs between critical parameters, such as the deep crustal Vs, Moho depth, and crustal Vp/Vs ratio. This eliminates the need for assumptions regarding crustal Vp/Vs ratios in joint inversion, leading to a more accurate outcome. Furthermore, it improves the precision of the upper mantle velocity structure by reducing its trade-off with Moho depth. Additional notes on the sources of bias in the results are also included. Application of the new approach to USArray stations in the Northwestern US reveals consistency with previous studies and identifies new features. Notably, we find elevated Vp/Vs ratios in the crystalline crust of regions such as coastal Oregon, suggesting potential mafic composition or fluid presence. Shallower Moho depth in the Basin and Range indicates reduced crustal support to the elevation. The uppermost mantle Vs, averaging 5 km below Moho, aligns well with the Pn-derived Moho temperature variations, offering the potential of using Vs as an additional constraint to Moho temperature and crustal thermal properties.
Abstract
Accurate Arctic sea-ice forecasting for the melt season is still a major challenge because of the lack of reliable pan-Arctic summer sea-ice thickness (SIT) data. A new summer CryoSat-2 SIT observation data set based on an artificial intelligence algorithm may alleviate this situation. We assess the impact of this new data set on the initialization of sea-ice forecasts in the melt seasons of 2015 and 2016 in a coupled sea ice-ocean model with data assimilation. We find that the assimilation of the summer CryoSat-2 SIT observations can reduce the summer ice-edge forecast error. Further, adding SIT observations to an established forecast system with sea-ice concentration assimilation leads to more realistic short-term summer ice-edge forecasts in the Arctic Pacific sector. The long-term Arctic-wide SIT prediction is also improved. In spite of remaining uncertainties, summer CryoSat-2 SIT observations have the potential to improve Arctic sea-ice forecast on multiple time scales.
Abstract
Wildfires have long been regarded as one chief culprit in regional air pollution, and pose great impacts on climate change. Although climate forcing of wildfire smoke has been widely investigated, its influence on synoptic systems remains unclear. Based on measurement and modeling analysis, the impact of wildfire smoke on the development of a mid-latitude cyclone was revealed for Canadian wildfires in early June of 2023. The radiative forcing induced by smoke at surface and in the atmosphere reached up to −150 and 100 W m−2, posing opposite tendencies of atmospheric stratification over the land and ocean. Such perturbations contributed to the enhancement and stagnation of the cyclone, which favored the transport of smoke from the fire-intensive region, indicated by nearly 40% increment of PM2.5 mass flux. With escalating wildfire risk in the future, the inclusion of smoke aerosols' impacts on meteorology in weather forecast models is of great importance.
Abstract
The regional impact of abrupt glacial climate variability remains poorly constrained for arid southwestern Asia, particularly winter dynamics during Marine Isotope Stage 3, due to limited paleoarchives in the Middle East. Here, we present continuous speleothem records of δ18O and δ13C with robust chronologies for southwestern and central Iran, spanning ∼50–30 ka. Stable-isotope signals in the two stalagmites are generally uncorrelated and do not exhibit a consistent response to Greenland stadials or interstadials; however, both show a positive δ18O excursion that coincides with Heinrich event 4. We explore the potential mechanisms for intermittent coupling of speleothem δ18O across Iran through isotope-enabled atmospheric modeling outputs, from which we utilize the spatial δ18O gradient as a proxy for wintertime westerly versus southerly jet strength. Our results suggest that during Heinrich event 4 and several Greenland stadials, stronger westerly winds enhanced Mediterranean moisture contributions to both sites and reduced aridity in southern Iran.
Abstract
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a significant impact on the surface climate of East Asia by modulating the atmospheric circulation over the Kuroshio Extension. Here, we show that the ENSO–East Asia teleconnections are strongest in early winter due to the combined effects of the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent convections, but weakest in mid-winter as these tropical convections weaken. During the early El Niño winter, convection is enhanced over the Indian Ocean and suppressed over the Maritime Continent. The associated Rossby wave trains constructively interfere over the Kuroshio Extension, resulting in anticyclonic circulation anomalies. The equatorial central Pacific convection has a minimal impact on the East Asia. This result suggests that the Indian Ocean and the Maritime Continent convections, rather than the equatorial central Pacific convection, are the precursors of the early winter ENSO–East Asia teleconnections, and need to be considered for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction in East Asia.
Abstract
This study addresses the lithospheric structure of the West and Central African rift system (WCARS) and explores its origin and development in relation to the enigmatic Cameroon volcanic line (CVL). Based on a recent seismic tomography model, we subdivide the areas in tectonic domains. We perform integrated 3D geophysical and petrological forward modeling. By exploring the thickness and composition of different domains, we compare the model response to the observed topography and gravity anomalies, under consideration of the available seismic Moho depth points. Our model reveals three distinct domains within the study area: The WCARS is predominantly underlain by a Phanerozoic-type lithospheric mantle, surrounded by the West African and the Congo Cratons, where the lithospheric mantle has a Proterozoic-type signature. Between these domains, we identify a transition area where lithospheric thickness changes rapidly. Our preferred model shows significant variability of crustal thickness from 20 km in the rift area to 50 km beneath the cratons accompanied by thin lithosphere of 80 km in the rift area to thick lithosphere of up to 240 km beneath the cratons. The final model confirms that the WCARS' origin is passive, and suggests that the origin of the CVL, particularly its continental part, is the result of two tectonic events: (a) V-shaped opening of the lithospheric mantle beneath the WCARS, resulting in (b) a strong variation of the lithosphere thickness at the transition between the rift zone and the northwestern part of the Congo craton.
