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Amplifying feedbacks could drive Greenland ice sheet to near-complete disappearance

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 01/22/2026 - 21:10
Greenland, which has been prominently in the news in recent days, hosts a vast ice sheet. If it melts, it will become one of the largest contributors to global sea-level rise. Under a high-emissions scenario, the Greenland Ice Sheet is expected to largely disappear over time, with far-reaching consequences. This is the conclusion of a new study by Chloë Paice and colleagues, published in The Cryosphere. The Greenland Ice Sheet contains enough ice to raise global sea levels by approximately 7.4 meters and has been losing mass at an accelerating rate since the 1990s. Roughly half of this loss is due to surface melt, while the other half results from ice calving where the ice sheet meets the ocean.

Arctic cloud and ice formation affected by Russian river runoff as region studied for first time

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 01/22/2026 - 19:54
Organic matter carried in rivers to the Russian part of the Arctic Ocean may be creating more clouds and keeping the region cooler, a new study has found.

Coastal Coralline Algae Naturally Survive Persistent, Extreme Low pH

EOS - Thu, 01/22/2026 - 19:11
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

Ocean acidification is known to have major impacts on marine habitats under projected climate change. How vulnerable marine organisms in these habitats are to acidification largely depends on the variability of environmental conditions, such as pH, they experience naturally.

Burdett et al. [2025] provide precious time-series evidence that, unlike the open ocean, coastal ecosystems experience high natural environmental variability. For about two thirds of the year, the monitored coastal coralline algae reef was exposed to pH levels as low as those expected for the year 2100 under IPCC projections. The pH levels varied considerably throughout the day and between seasons, associated with biological activity, tidal cycling, and water temperature. Long‐term exposure to such low pH conditions and high variability may help coralline algal communities to adapt to future acidification, providing a level of optimism for the survival of this globally distributed biodiverse habitat.

Citation: Burdett, H. L., Mao, J., Foster, G. L., & Kamenos, N. A. (2025). Persistence of extreme low pH in a coralline algae habitat. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 130, e2025JG009062. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JG009062

—Xiaojuan Feng, Associate Editor, JGR: Biogeosciences

Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Low-amplitude brittle deformation in rainfall-driven landslides: insights from Jiangjia Gully

Publication date: 15 January 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 2

Author(s): Jingkai Meng, Chunhua Han, Jiale An, Zhongcai Gao, Yurong Li, Yongjun Li

Improved estimation of ocean tide loading displacements using GALILEO and BDS-3 observations along the coast of China

Publication date: 15 January 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 2

Author(s): Huayi Zhang, Na Wei, Jun Xu, Long Yang, Yikai Feng, Dongxu Zhou, Yongduo Lu

Evaluating the effectiveness of remote sensing data for assessing the impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on air temperature in a tropical urban environment

Publication date: 15 January 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 2

Author(s): Ricky Anak Kemarau, Oliver Valentine Eboy, Zaini Sakawi, Stanley Anak Suab

Gully erosion prediction using weight of evidence and advanced machine learning models

Publication date: 15 January 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 2

Author(s): Xiaohui Chen, Alireza Arabameri, M. Santosh, Hasan Raja Naqvi, Mohd Ramiz

CAU-Net: An attention-based feature enhancement model for ground-based cloud image segmentation applicable to <em>peri</em>-solar regions

Publication date: 15 January 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 2

Author(s): Junye Zhu, Yutong Liu, Kefan Xu, Yangshu Lin, Keqi Wang, Zhiming Lin, Qiwen Jin, Chao Yang, Lijie Wang, Chenghang Zheng, Yongxin Zhang, Xuecheng Wu

How the ocean's hydrothermal systems made the first life on Earth possible

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 01/22/2026 - 17:40
Our planet is unique for its ability to sustain abundant life. From studies of the rock record, scientists believe life had already emerged on Earth at least 3.5 billion years ago and probably much earlier.

Increased soil salinity alters global inorganic carbon storage, finds study

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 01/22/2026 - 17:22
A new global study shows that increasing soil salinity is systematically reshaping the storage and distribution of soil inorganic carbon (SIC), a key but often-overlooked part of terrestrial ecosystems. The findings, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on January 20, provide the first comprehensive global assessment of how soil salinization influences inorganic carbon storage and highlight its implications for the global carbon cycle.

Beneath Antarctica's largest ice shelf, a hidden ocean is revealing its secrets

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 01/22/2026 - 17:06
Beneath Antarctica's Ross Ice Shelf lies one of the least measured oceans on Earth—a vast, dark cavity roughly twice the volume of the North Sea.

Rainfall–salinity link sustains prolonged La Niña events, study reveals

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 01/22/2026 - 16:23
La Niña—a climate phenomenon characterized by unusually cool sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean—can persist for multiple years, exerting significant climate impacts worldwide. In recent decades, such prolonged La Niña events have grown more frequent. However, the mechanisms that sustain these multiyear cooling episodes have remained unclear.

Scientists may have solved 66 million-year-old mystery of how Earth's greenhouse age ended

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 01/22/2026 - 14:54
A 66 million-year-old mystery behind how our planet transformed from a tropical greenhouse to the ice-capped world of today has been unraveled by scientists. Their new study has revealed that Earth's massive drop in temperature after the dinosaurs went extinct could have been caused by a large decrease in calcium levels in the ocean.

Early news about the 22 January 2026 landslide at Mount Maunganui in New Zealand

EOS - Thu, 01/22/2026 - 08:10

Eight people have been killed or are missing in two landslides triggered by heavy rainfall in New Zealand

Substantial parts of New Zeealand have been suffering extreme rainfall – yet again – causing floods and landslides. The most serious event to date occurred at a camp site at Mount Maunganui on the Bay of Plenty in the North Island. Here, a landslide devastated a campsite close to the coast. Unfortunately, January is the main summer holiday period in New Zealand.

Stuff has a video of the landslide as it occurred. Meanwhile, The Guardian has a Youtube video with imagery of the aftermath:-

This still shows the basic components of the failure:-

The aftermath of the 22 January 2026 landslide at Mount Maunganui. Still from a video posted to Youtube.

The location is reported to be the Mount Maunganui Beachside Holiday Park. This makes the location [-37.63234, 176.17507]. This is Google Earth image of the site:-

Google Earth image of the site of the 22 January 2026 landslide at Mount Maunganui.

The image suggests a complex geology, with maybe a hint of previous landslides (this is very speculative). The geology of this area is primarily volcanic rocks, which may indicate a high landslide susceptibility. The images of the aftermath appear to suggest deeply weathered soils, and note the amount of water flowing through the debris.

News reports indicate that at least six people are missing, some of whom are children., The authorities are continuing to describe the operation at the site as a rescue.

Meanwhile, two other people were killed by an early morning landslide at Welcome Bay Road in Papamoa, also on the Bay of Plenty. This appears to have occurred at about [-37.7231, 176.20896]. One News has an image of the aftermath of the event that appears to show multiple shallow landslides on the same hillside.

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Evidence of 'lightning-fast' evolution found after Chicxulub impact

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 01/22/2026 - 06:51
The asteroid that struck the Earth 66 million years ago devastated life across the planet, wiping out the dinosaurs and other organisms in a hail of fire and catastrophic climate change. But new research shows that it also set the stage for life to rebound astonishingly quickly.

World on track to breach 1.5°C target by 2030

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 01/22/2026 - 04:10
Global average temperature increases could pass the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold outlined in the Paris Agreement by the end of the decade, according to the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service, putting the world at greater risk of never-seen-before extreme weather events.

Robust probabilistic estimation of statistical variations in earthquake records: application to induced seismicity in western Canada

Geophysical Journal International - Thu, 01/22/2026 - 00:00
SummaryAccurate characterization of the magnitude-frequency distribution of seismicity, and its associated uncertainties, is essential for seismic hazard assessment. This distribution is commonly described by the Gutenberg–Richter (GR) relation, parameterized by the b-value, which has been identified as a potential proxy for investigating many spatiotemporally varying Earth phenomena. Estimating the spatiotemporal variability of b-values often requires windowing, forcing a trade-off between resolution and statistical reliability. New probabilistic methods circumvent this by inferring both the number and locations of change points directly from earthquake catalogs. Nevertheless, accurately determining the b-value remains difficult because the GR relation only holds over a limited range of magnitudes. This research develops a general statistical model to address several methodological challenges in estimating the magnitude-frequency distribution of observed seismicity, including variations in space or time. The approach simultaneously solves for the b-value and magnitude-range limits. This avoids potential bias due to inaccurate manual truncation of earthquake catalogs. The model considers the entire observed catalog and parameterizes the decay of the distribution at both low and high magnitudes. Consequently, robust uncertainties in estimated b-values reflect uncertainty in the range of magnitudes over which the GR relation is observed to be valid. Importantly, spatiotemporal variations in the parameters that define the magnitude range are considered to be independent from the b-value, as we assume the physical factors that influence the GR relation are independent of the factors that limit the observed earthquake catalog. We demonstrate this methodology through application to simulated and observed earthquake catalogs. In particular, the value of our approach is highlighted through application to observed records of induced seismicity associated with fluid-injection operations in western Canada. Our results demonstrate accurate b-value estimates and associated uncertainties. Furthermore, the additional parameters that define the magnitude range serve as proxies for other factors including seismic network performance, recording duration, potential geometric limitations on earthquake size, and potential injection characteristics (in induced seismicity cases). Our approach also allows for the investigation of how these other factors may vary in space/time. Results from this work contribute to rigorous propagation of accurate b-value estimates, including uncertainties, into subsequent analyses such as seismic hazard models and regulatory protocols that are applied to industrial activity.

Machine learning for data-driven pattern recognition of seismic wind turbine emissions

Geophysical Journal International - Thu, 01/22/2026 - 00:00
SummarySeismic emissions from wind turbines (WTs) depend on the rotation of the WT blades and the wind direction-dependent movement of the WT. Mechanical coupling between the WT foundation and the subsurface generates complex seismic wavefields, making it challenging to manually separate the contributions of different signal sources, thus complicating data labelling. We address this challenge by applying unsupervised machine learning techniques that do not require labelled data. Our analysis focuses on seismic WT emissions recorded near Wind Farm Tegelberg in the eastern Swabian Alb, Southwest Germany. Specifically, we extract time-averaged wavelet features by temporal averaging the wavelet transformation of the continuous three-component seismic data and subsequently apply the clustering algorithm Hierarchical Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (HDBSCAN). The resulting clusters not only capture the variations in the WT rotation rate but also reveal a clear dependency on wind direction, associated with the radiation pattern of different surface waves. Our results demonstrate the potential of HDBSCAN to uncover meaningful, source-related patterns in continuous seismic records.

Trump Administration to Speed Up Permitting for Deep Sea Mining, Even Beyond U.S. Boundaries

EOS - Wed, 01/21/2026 - 18:07
body {background-color: #D2D1D5;} Research & Developments is a blog for brief updates that provide context for the flurry of news regarding law and policy changes that impact science and scientists today.

NOAA has finalized a rule that will expedite the permit and license application process for deep seabed mining and allow companies to mine beyond U.S. jurisdictional boundaries.

The changes were published in a 113-page regulation on 21 January.

The changes revise the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act (DSHMRA) of 1980, which required individuals or corporations who wanted to explore and mine mineral-rich nodules in the deep sea to apply for an exploration license and a commercial recovery (large-scale extraction) permit separately. Now, applicants may apply for both the exploration license and commercial recovery permit at the same time. 

“By issuing the permit simultaneously, they’re committing to exploitation without the information that you would need to evaluate its impacts.”

“Deep seabed mining is key to unlocking a domestic source of critical minerals for the United States,” Neil Jacobs, NOAA administrator, said in a statement. “This consolidation modernizes the law and supports the America First agenda by enabling U.S. companies to access these resources more quickly, strengthening our nation’s economic resilience and advancing the discovery and use of critical seafloor minerals.” 

Critics are concerned that the move will loosen environmental oversight. “By issuing the permit simultaneously, they’re committing to exploitation without the information that you would need to evaluate its impacts,” Emily Jeffers, senior attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity, told Agence France-Presse.

Beyond U.S. Boundaries

The updated rule also states that DSHMRA gives NOAA the ability to issue exploration licenses and permits for the seabed beyond national jurisdiction. The International Seabed Authority (ISA), an autonomous international governing body, regulates deep sea mining in international waters for countries that are part of the 1982 Law of the Sea Convention. The United States has never been a party to that treaty but has mostly followed its guidelines.

Now, NOAA’s insistence that the United States can regulate U.S. companies’ deep sea mining beyond U.S. waters is expected to cause controversy among members of the ISA, which has for years been negotiating rules to govern mining in international waters. In December, the Trump administration announced it had received an application for mining exploration in international waters from the Metals Company.

The final rule follows an executive order issued last year calling for the rapid development of deep sea mining capabilities both domestically and beyond U.S. jurisdictional boundaries.

 
Related

In a response to that order, the ISA called it “surprising because for over 30 years the US has been a reliable observer and significant contributor to the negotiations of the International Seabed Authority.” In the statement, the ISA also said any unilateral action to mine the deep sea “sets a dangerous precedent that could destabilize the entire system of global ocean governance.”

The deep sea has never been commercially mined. Compared to other ecosystems, little is known about the ecology of the ocean floor or how these ecosystems support marine life. Disturbing these ecosystems could have wide-ranging consequences.

“Once nodules are removed by mining, all biodiversity and functions directly dependent on the minerals will be lost for millions of years at the mined location, as nodules need millions of years to re-form,” Sabine Gollner, a deep-sea marine biologist at the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research told Eos in 2024. 

—Grace van Deelen (@gvd.bsky.social), Staff Writer

These updates are made possible through information from the scientific community. Do you have a story about how changes in law or policy are affecting scientists or research? Send us a tip at eos@agu.org. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

US forests store record carbon as natural and human factors combine

Phys.org: Earth science - Wed, 01/21/2026 - 17:33
U.S. forests have stored more carbon in the past two decades than at any time in the last century, an increase attributable to a mix of natural factors and human activity, finds a new study.

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