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Rice feeds more than half the world. From terraced paddies in Southeast Asia to irrigated fields in China and India, it underpins daily meals for billions of people.

The Great Pyramid of Giza in Egypt has survived more than 4,500 years. Earthquakes have repeatedly shaken the region, including the magnitude 5.8 Cairo earthquake in 1992, which dislodged some of the pyramid's outer casing stones. Yet the main body remained essentially intact.

For many years a source of irritation, a fossil of the Brazilian spinosaurid Irritator challengeri is now bringing some joy to paleontologists in its homeland.

Following a successful public campaign for restitution, the piece is returning to Brazil from the collection of Germany’s State Museum of Natural History Stuttgart (SMNS), where it has been kept for the past 30 years—a situation that Brazilian paleontologists and lawmakers deemed illegal.

Representatives of both countries made the announcement last month during Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s visit to Germany. In a joint statement, they announced the German museum’s “willingness” to “hand over” the fossil to Brazil and start a new, more transparent era of international collaboration.

“It is a very expected and cherished move because it represents a huge scientific and social victory for the Global South and for Brazil.”

“Finally, the Irritator will be back to its original place,” said paleontologist Allysson Pontes Pinheiro, director of the Plácido Cidade Nuvens Paleontology Museum.

The museum, located in northeastern Brazil where the fossil was discovered in the 1990s, will host the Irritator when it returns to Brazil. “It is a very expected and cherished move because it represents a huge scientific and social victory for the Global South and for Brazil,” Pinheiro said, highlighting that the return will allow local scientists and the population to have access to a heritage that would be difficult and expensive to access abroad.

The Irritator challengeri fossil is one of many that have been illegally obtained from South America by researchers from the Global North. Considered the most complete spinosaurid skull ever described, the 110-million-year-old specimen was taken from the Araripe Basin in northeastern Brazil and described in 1995 by British paleontologist David Martill and his German colleague Eberhard “Dino” Frey. Martill and Frey worked on at least one other fossil smuggled from Brazil to Germany, an Ubirajara jubatus specimen, which was repatriated in 2023 and is currently housed at Plácido Cidade Nuvens.

Martill and Frey named the newly discovered species in reference to their irritation upon learning that the skull had been manipulated by fossil dealers to get a better price. Little did the researchers know that the fossil would irritate many other scientists, especially those from the animal’s homeland.

Revisiting a Fossil with “Problematic Status”

In 2023, triggered by the publication of a paper that acknowledged the fossil’s “problematic status,” paleontologists in South America published an open letter to the Ministry of Science, Research and Arts of Baden-Württemberg State demanding its return. The document received about 300 signatures from scientists and lawyers and was followed by a viral social media campaign involving influencers and a more recent public petition on Change.org that gathered more than 34,000 signatures.

“This campaign showed us that it is worth continuing to fight for our fossils.”

The restitution request is based on Brazilian legislation passed in 1942 that determined that fossils found in the country are the state’s property and cannot be traded or exported without explicit authorization. In addition, a more recent Brazilian ordinance (dating to 1990) mandates that any holotype (a fossil used to describe a new species, such as the contested Irritator specimen) must remain in the country. Regardless, SMNS maintained the fossil had been legally purchased from a private dealer in Germany in 1991.

“We are very happy the Brazilian law is now being respected,” said Aline Ghilardi, a paleontologist at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte who was at the forefront of the repatriation campaign. “This campaign showed us that it is worth continuing to fight for our fossils.”

At the time of publication, SMNS had not responded to requests for comment.

A Long Process of Decolonization

But Ghilardi is not entirely satisfied. She didn’t like the wording of the announcement, which used the expression “hand over” rather than return, repatriate, or restitute.

“The statement was a missed opportunity to demonstrate the German government’s willingness to decide in favor of a restitution process,” she explained. “It seems there is resistance to making these restitutions as actual restitutions. It appears as if it is theirs by right and that they will hand over the fossil to Brazil as part of scientific cooperation.”

Ghilardi expressed that she will believe the repatriation will actually happen only when a specific return date is announced. (As of publication, it has not.) She also hopes that the Irritator case is not an isolated incident, but part of an ongoing trend of restitutions intended to break the pattern of neocolonialism in science.

A 2025 study published by Ghilardi and colleagues in the journal Palaeontologia Electronica showed that of nearly 500 invertebrate species described from fossils found in the Araripe Basin—one of Brazil’s richest and most threatened regions of geodiversity—about half have holotypes stored in institutions across Europe, Asia, and North America, violating Brazilian law.

Most of these smuggled fossils are hosted in Germany. “Some foreign colleagues complained about our campaign, saying that it looked like we were persecuting Germany,” Ghilardi said. “But that is not the case. It is just the numbers.”

It is possible, she noted, that other countries hold even more specimens that were not described in the scientific literature and therefore could not be counted.

The same study also found that more than 200 species were described in publications that did not include any Brazilian scientists as coauthors, despite Brazilian legislation requiring foreign research on Brazilian fossil material to be conducted in partnership with local institutions.

Wave of Repatriation

Paleontologist Serjoscha Evers at the Universität Freiburg, who authored the 2023 study on the Irritator fossil, wrote in an email to Eos that he welcomed the news of the dinosaur’s return.

However, he also wondered whether the decision is just “a diplomatic favor that resulted from the public pressure, or foreshadowing a broader wave of repatriations based on a legal conclusion that the fossils are unlawfully in German custody.”

Paleontologists involved in the Irritator restitution efforts said that since the campaign began, they have been receiving emails from museums and institutions worldwide seeking information on the procedures for returning fossils to Brazil.

Germany recently said it would “hand over” the Irritator challengeri fossil to Brazil. This illustration suggests what the dinosaur would have looked like before it was a fossil, about 110 million years ago. Credit: PaleoGeekSquared/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

The Plácido Cidade Nuvens Paleontology Museum, the final destination of the Irritator, has received several restitutions itself, including 45 fossils originally collected from the Araripe Basin and previously held by the University of Zurich in Switzerland, the fossil of a crustacean that was in the possession of the Universidad Nacional del Nordeste in Argentina, and a fish fossil seized in Italy.

According to Pinheiro, the museum’s director, paleontologists and the Brazilian government have listed at least 90 Brazilian holotypes still held in Germany. And the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed to Eos that it is currently negotiating the return of nine fossils held in undisclosed countries.

“We have been talking with colleagues from the museums where these materials are hosted, and they seem very favorable to returning them,” Pinheiro observed. “It is a huge advancement and a great change of behavior from important museums that have been holding heritage from the Global South.”

—Sofia Moutinho (@sofiamoutinho.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Moutinho, S. (2026), Germany to return contested dinosaur fossil to Brazil, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260167. Published on 22 May 2026. Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

As the Indian and Eurasian continental plates collide, the Tibetan Plateau is slowly deforming. For decades, geoscientists debated how this deformation occurs: Is the plateau like a block of crumbly aged cheddar, deforming mostly at its faults, or is it more like French brie, moving like a very viscous liquid being pushed slowly to the east?

A new study published in Science shows that both theories are at work. The study’s findings provide the most comprehensive picture yet of the Tibetan Plateau’s deformation and offer valuable information for earthquake hazard assessments in the region.

The new model that combines the two theories is a “significant advance,” said Eric Fielding, a geodesist who was not involved in the study. Fielding is a staff member at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory but did not speak on behalf of the agency. “It’s clearly the result of a very large amount of work,” he said.

A Deformation Investigation

For decades, scientists have held differing views on the Tibetan Plateau’s deformation. One camp modeled the plateau’s deformation with movement occurring mostly at its faults, while the other modeled the movement like a thick fluid deforming areas beyond faults.

“These two communities have carried on modeling deformation in different ways” and have never fully resolved the differences between their models, said Tim Wright, a geodesist at the University of Leeds in the United Kingdom and lead author of the new study.

It’s tricky to measure the plateau’s deformation, though, because it changes so slowly: One of the fastest faults on the plateau, the Kunlun Fault, moves at about just 10 millimeters per year. “These are rates that are less than your fingernails growing,” Wright said.

And because much of the Tibetan Plateau’s terrain is inaccessible, there’s a dearth of ground-based stations to track movement, meaning most geodetic data for the area must come from satellites.

“It’s a boon for science to have that consistent acquisition of the same kind of data for 10 years.”

Tracking such nearly imperceptible movement with satellites hundreds of kilometers above requires enormous amounts of data collected over many years. Wright and his colleagues finally had those data after 10 years of observations from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-1 satellite mission, which launched in 2014.

“Because the signals are so small, you need to wait for some time before you accrue enough deformation that you can actually measure it,” Wright said. The 2014–2024 data they analyzed are “giving us a really clean signal,” he said.

“It’s a boon for science to have that consistent acquisition of the same kind of data for 10 years,” Fielding said.

Using tens of thousands of satellite images alongside ground-based satellite navigation system stations, Wright and the team constructed comprehensive velocity maps of the deformation of the plateau. Results showed that a mix of theories best describes the mechanism.

“We think what’s really happening is a combination of both,” Wright said.

Wright, who described himself as “formerly of the viscous deformation camp,” was surprised by the prominent role that faults played in the plateau’s deformation. Previously, he said, he would have described the faults as passive markers within the underlying flow of the landmass. But the data show that the faults influence a much broader area of the plateau: “The whole deformation of the plateau is influenced by those faults,” he said.

The study “shows clearly that these major fault systems are responsible for a large part of the strain within the plateau,” Fielding said.

Mapping Seismic Hazards

“We have very little information about the history of earthquakes on these faults in this area.”

Knowing how the plateau deforms can also help scientists create more accurate seismic hazard assessments for the millions of people who may be affected by earthquakes there, particularly at the edges of the plateau. “We have very little information about the history of earthquakes on these faults in this area,” Fielding said.

The research team is working with the Global Earthquake Model Foundation, a nonprofit earthquake research collaboration, and other organizations to incorporate their findings into hazard assessments.

Wright and the research team recently used a similar methodology to map the deformation field of the entire Alpine-Himalayan belt, which stretches from Spain to eastern China. The same methods could be used to map the deformation of the western United States, another area where both viscous and fault-related deformation may affect large population centers, Fielding said.

—Grace van Deelen (@gvd.bsky.social), Staff Writer

Citation: van Deelen, G. (2026), Weak faults play a strong role in the Tibetan Plateau’s deformation, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260162. Published on 22 May 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Want updates from a trusted source about climate change’s impacts on oceans? Preference Eos in your searches! Go to Google

Renske Jongen, an ecologist at the University of Sydney, calls seagrass ecosystems the “tropical rainforests” of the ocean. These underwater flowering plants offer habitats to marine life, protect coastlines from damage, and, like rainforests, store enormous amounts of carbon.

They’re also under threat from pollution, development, and warming ocean waters, which stress plants and slow growth rates. Seagrass populations have been declining globally for nearly a century, and recent estimates suggest 7% of seagrasses are lost worldwide each year.

A new study published in New Phytologist shows that warming waters may affect a microscopic aspect of the seagrass ecosystem, too: the microbes that live in their sediments. The new insight can inform efforts to restore seagrasses, the authors write.

Seagrasses are “getting attacked from both sides,” said Jongen, the lead author of the new study. Warming water stresses the plants themselves, while “something changes in the sediment that makes them grow worse.”

Sediments and Seagrass The research team transplanted seagrasses from elsewhere in Lake Macquarie to a preexisting, artificially warmed area to run their experiment. Credit: Renske Jongen

To test how microbial communities affect seagrass growth under warming temperatures, Jongen and the research team transplanted seagrasses and their sediment from both warm and cool areas of Lake Macquarie, a coastal saltwater lake in New South Wales, Australia, into an artificially warmed part of the lake. The artificially warmed part of the lake has received intermittent plumes of heated water from a nearby power plant since 1984, leading to a consistent temperature increase of 1°C–3°C (1.8°F–5.7°F) compared with the rest of the lake.

For half of the seagrasses, the team also used an autoclave, an instrument that uses steam to sterilize materials, to kill most of the microbes in their associated sediment before transplanting them to the experimental garden. “By looking at how plants respond with and without their microbes, you can get an idea for whether [those microbes] help or harm the plant under certain environments,” Jongen said.

The plants were then left to grow for 28 days before the team measured how they’d fared.

The warm-origin seagrasses in their original, warm-origin sediments with microbes intact grew the slowest once they were in the artificially heated waters, producing 35% less aboveground biomass than their counterparts whose sediment microbial communities had been killed. That result suggests that the microbial community in warmed sediment contributes to seagrass stress, the authors wrote.

“These plants, in general, do not like sediments that have been exposed to warmer temperatures.”

“These plants, in general, do not like sediments that have been exposed to warmer temperatures,” Jongen said. She was surprised that the plants that came from the warm areas had the worst outcomes but hypothesizes that perhaps these plants were already too stressed from warm waters to deal with the changes to sediment bacterial communities that occurred after they were transplanted into the even warmer part of the lake.

“It’s just like us, for example: When we don’t sleep or we’ve had a stressful week, then we get sick more easily,” she said.

Jongen said more research is needed to say for sure why warmed sediment seems to change microbial communities in a way that harms seagrasses. But research has shown that some microbes in ocean sediment produce sulfide, which can be toxic to seagrasses if it accumulates, especially if those seagrasses are already stressed. Warmer conditions may allow these sulfide-producing microbes to grow more quickly, harming the plants.

The new research highlights the “context dependency of host-microbe interactions,” said Karolina Zabinski, a marine ecologist at the University of California, Davis, who was not involved in the new study. Previous research by Zabinski and others also showed that seagrass growth depends on their associated sediment microbiome.

Restoration Lessons

The new study “serves as a great springboard” for both academics seeking to understand seagrass-microbe interactions and practitioners working on seagrass restoration in the field, Zabinski said.

For academic researchers, the paper raises exciting questions about how the microbial communities present in the sediment actually function, she said. Though the study identified the types of microbes in the seagrasses’ sediments, it didn’t evaluate the abilities of those microbes, which genes they possess or express, or how those microbes interacted with each other. “What are their actual genes, and what are they doing?” Zabinski asked.

“When plants don’t do well, we can’t just assume it’s inherent to the plants—we have to remember it could be driven by the microbes that they’re interacting with.”

For seagrass restoration practitioners, the study could offer new methods to try to improve restoration success. Some projects, for example, aim to take plants from warmer environments and transplant them to seagrass ecosystems that will face warming stress in the future as the climate changes. “It seems pretty intuitive that maybe those plants will have the traits or the genetics to respond to that warming,” said Randall Hughes, a marine ecologist at Northeastern University in Boston who was not involved in the new study. But the study’s results highlight “that intuition is not always reliable.”

“Certainly, having experimental studies like this helps us think about those restoration efforts in a more informed way,” she said. “When plants don’t do well, we can’t just assume it’s inherent to the plants—we have to remember it could be driven by the microbes that they’re interacting with.”

Jongen hopes to continue studying related questions about how seagrasses respond to warming waters. In particular, she’d like to investigate how long changes to the sediment microbial community last and whether those changes reverse once a marine heat wave subsides.

The research team collected sediments and seagrasses from different sites within Lake Macquarie before transplanting the plants into an artificially warmed area of the lake. Credit: Renske Jongen

Ultimately, the answers to these questions will help scientists better predict where seagrasses are in danger and how they might be helped. “If we lose the seagrasses, we don’t only lose the seagrasses, we lose all the other benefits that they provide,” Jongen said. “I think they deserve a little bit more attention.”

—Grace van Deelen (@gvd.bsky.social), Staff Writer

Citation: van Deelen, G. (2026), Warm waters disrupt seagrasses’ microbial environment, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260166. Published on 22 May 2026. Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

A new atlas charts the global distribution of unusual, critical-metal-bearing igneous rocks, finding that they often form near the thick and ancient cores of the world's major continents. Researchers from Cambridge's Department of Earth Sciences mapped occurrences of CO2-rich igneous rocks—the world's primary source of rare earth elements—finding that their distribution is strongly tied to variations in Earth's rigid outer layer, the lithosphere.

Forecasters say a potentially "super" El Niño is rapidly taking shape in the Pacific—but whether it evolves into a history-making event could hinge on fickle winds and other volatile atmospheric shifts.

A new paper in the journal landslides (Yang et al. 2026) details the 6.8 million cubic metre Huangci Landslide in China, which was a reactivation on a slope that has suffered two other failures in recent decades.

On 10 December 2025, failure occurred in the large Huangci landslide in Gansu Province, China. The event is described in a new paper (Yang et al. 2026) in the journal Landslides (this link should provide access even though the article is paywalled). The paper is fascinating as this is a very complex slope with an interesting history of deformation, and because large failures do not usually occur in the winter months in this part of China.

The location of the Huangci landslide is [36.08983, 103.32412]. This is a Google Earth image of the site, captured in 2004:-

Google Earth image of the Huangci landslide in 2004.

The geology consists of loess overlying mudstones. As the image above shows, the site had previously failed. The houses at the foot of the slope are the homes of people displaced in 1968 during the impoundment of the Liujiaxia Reservoir. Note also the farmland on the terrace behind the landslide. This is an arid area, so this farming requires extensive irrigation.

According to Yang et al. (2026), the failure that can be seen in the image above occurred on 30 January 1995. About 6 million cubic metres of rock and loess were involved, creating a landslide with a width of about 500 metres and a length of about 370 m.

The Huangci landslide failed again on 14 May 2006, this time with a volume of about 4 million cubic metres. The image below, captured in 2013, shows the aftermath:-

Google Earth image of the Huangci landslide in 2012.

In this failure, 10 houses were destroyed.

The most recent failure of the Huangci landslide occurred on 10 December 2025. This time, a larger mass failed, creating a landslide with a volume of about 6.77 million cubic metres, a length of up to about 740 metres and a width of up to about 420 metres. There is a spectacular video on Youtube showing the aftermath of the failure:-

The still below gives an impression of the scale of the failure:-

An image from a drone showing the aftermath of the 10 December 2025 Huangci landslide in China. Still from a video posted to Youtube by 阿龍說牆內事.

According to Yang et al. (2026), this failure destroyed 39 houses plus a range of infrastructure that includes power transmission systems, irrigation systems, water supply systems and transportation facilities. The site had been successfully evacuated as a result of a community-operated early warning system.

As noted above, this is an unusual time of the year for a landslide of this type. However, Yang et al. (2026) conclude that the underlying driver is irrigation on the terrace upslope from the landslide, driving a rise in the groundwater and consequent progressive deformation of the slope. This led to weakening of the mudstones that were buttressing the failure, eventually triggering collapse.

Reference

Yang, Y. et al. 2026. The reactivated Huangci landslide at the Heifangtai terrace, Gansu Province, China, on December 10, 2025. Landslides. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-026-02765-2.

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Publication date: 15 May 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 10

Author(s): Bin Liu, Linzhi Wei, Shenghui Zeng, Chao Liu, Wujiao Dai

Publication date: 15 May 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 10

Author(s): Maijin Lin, Shaofeng Xie, Liangke Huang, Yifei Yang, Xiangping Chen, Xianghong Li, Weiwei Li, Lilong Liu

Publication date: 15 May 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 10

Author(s): Qing Zhao, Shuguo Pan, Wang Gao, Xianlu Tao, Hong Huang

SummaryHydraulic fracturing in unconventional gas development has intensified concerns over induced seismicity, generating significant seismic hazards with potential risk implications for surrounding environments and communities. Accurate prediction and transparent interpretation of such hazards remain open challenges in seismology and engineering practice. This study addresses these challenges by developing a One-Step Prediction Random Forest framework to model the spatiotemporal relationships among hydraulic fracturing well deployment, geological factors, historical seismicity, and the likelihood of future seismic occurrences. A seismic energy labeling scheme based on one-step prediction enables the framework to estimate potential seismic energy release and identify dominant controlling factors through feature attribution. Building on these results, the conventional traffic-light risk management system is conceptually extended to a traffic-light hazard management scheme, which incorporates theoretical insights from risk analysis to improve interpretability and operational relevance. Predictive performance across low-, medium-, and high-hazard scenarios is assessed using confusion matrix analysis, while SHAP-based interpretability confirms that the framework preserves physical consistency by linking geological and operational drivers with seismic energy release. The findings advance methodological innovation in induced seismicity research by combining hazard prediction with a hazard-management framework inspired by risk theory, providing both theoretical insights and practical tools for shale gas development.

SummaryThe 23 April 2025 Mw 6.2 Marmara earthquake near İstanbul in northwestern Türkiye provided a rare opportunity to evaluate the capability of distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) for near-fault seismology in a densely populated and tectonically active region. The DAS monitoring complements the borehole-based Geophysical Observatory at the North Anatolian Fault (GONAF) expanding near-fault observatory towards high-resolution monitoring of deformation along the Main Marmara Fault (MMF) in the vicinity of Istanbul. In this experiment, an existing telecommunication dark fiber within the national optical network was repurposed as a long-offset submarine seismic array without any dedicated underwater installation. This fiber-optic cable, which extends underwater along the southern coast of Istanbul and follows the northern boundary of the Princes Islands, successfully recorded the Mw 6.2 Marmara earthquake. In this study, we analyzed the resulting dataset, which provides an aperture of approximately 34 km with 8 m channel spacing and a 250 Hz sampling rate, and includes sections extending both parallel and perpendicular to the fault. The DAS strain rate recordings of the Mw 6.2 mainshock exhibit clear P- and S- wave arrivals across thousands of channels with high signal coherence. After amplitude and phase calibration, the recordings were converted into equivalent particle velocity using a gauge length based transfer function and compared with nearby GONAF borehole seismic waveform data. Spectral analyses show that the DAS array preserves seismic energy up to ~25 Hz, with spectral shape and amplitude distributions consistent with those of the borehole recordings. Curvelet, f–k, and time domain slowness based conversion methods were employed for the transformation process. The submarine DAS array interrogated by an OptoDAS system enables high resolution spatial sampling of strain derived from the recorded strain-rate data. Systematic variations in apparent velocity (Vp ≈ 2.38 km/s, Vs ≈ 2.30 km/s) and amplitude decay are observed, which could possibly represent shallow sediment heterogeneity along the fiber. Short-wavelength fluctuations in strain are present, which may reflect local structural complexity as well as cable-related factors such as orientation and burial conditions. Overall, these results demonstrate that existing dark-fiber infrastructure can be used as long-aperture seismic arrays for capturing local seismic wavefields providing high-density measurements useful for monitoring near-fault strain variations. This study shows the long-offset DAS recording of a moderate size earthquake in Türkiye and one of the few submarine DAS observations worldwide. It demonstrates that dense strain measurements derived from fiber-optic infrastructure can complement the monitoring of offshore active fault segments, offering unprecedented spatial resolution for monitoring dynamic strain, and fault zone deformation in regions of high seismic hazard such as the Sea of Marmara.

In its annual forecast of the upcoming Atlantic Hurricane season, NOAA suggests the 2026 season has a 55% chance of being below normal, compared with a 35% chance of being near normal and just a 10% chance of being above normal.

The forecast, announced at a press conference at the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland, Fla., includes 8 to 14 named storms (with winds of at least 39 miles per hour), 3 to 6 of which will be hurricanes (with winds of at least 74 miles per hour). One to three of those are forecast to be major hurricanes (category 3 to 5 storms, with winds of at least 111 miles per hour).

NOAA forecasts that a below-average hurricane season is most likely in 2026, largely because of El Niño conditions. Credit: NOAA

A below-average number of hurricanes does not reduce the need for people to be prepared, NOAA representatives emphasized.

“Even though we’re expecting a below-average season in the Atlantic, it’s very important to understand that it only takes one.”

“Even though we’re expecting a below-average season in the Atlantic, it’s very important to understand that it only takes one,” said Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs. “We have had category 5s make landfall in the past during below-average seasons.”

In contrast, NOAA is forecasting an above-average season in the Pacific, with a 70% likelihood of above-normal activity.

Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s National Weather Service, noted that the Atlantic forecast does not yet contain information about potential hurricane landfalls, just the likelihood of their formation. National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said the potential for rapid intensification—when wind speed increases by at least 35 miles per hour over the course of 24 hours—makes early preparedness particularly important.

“Every category 5 that’s made landfall in this country was a tropical storm or less 3 days out,” he said. “So they rapidly intensified that quick. You think you might have a week on your timeline. The reality is you may only have days.”

“There will never be a ‘Hurricane Justa,’” he added. “There’s no such thing as just a category 1, just a tropical storm, just a category 2.…Even the smallest storm, if it’s slow enough and big enough, it’s going to be catastrophic flooding and storm surge.”

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from 1 June to 30 November. The NOAA forecast is in line with an Atlantic hurricane forecast issued 9 April by Colorado State University (CSU), which predicted 13 named storms and 6 hurricanes, including 2 major hurricanes. Similarly, a forecast released 22 April by North Carolina State University predicted 12 to 15 named storms, 6 to 9 hurricanes, and 2 to 3 major hurricanes.

All three forecasts are slightly below the average Atlantic hurricane numbers for 1991–2020: 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes.

The World Meteorological Organization has released its list of 2026 Atlantic tropical cyclone names. Credit: NOAA El Niño

The forecast for below-average activity levels largely stems from El Niño, a climate pattern that increases vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. Vertical wind shear is how much the speed and direction of wind change with altitude. When wind shear is too high, it can tear a hurricane apart before it forms.

“Wind shear is good for us, bad for the hurricanes,” said Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane forecaster at Colorado State University and lead author of the CSU report.

This year, researchers suggest El Niño could become the strongest in modern history, which could have ripple effects on global temperatures. At the NOAA press conference, Jacobs said that there is a 98% chance of El Niño conditions occurring later this season and an 80% chance that it will be moderate to strong. The forecasted strength of El Niño has only grown since CSU issued its forecast, Klotzbach said.

However, in addition to high wind shear, El Niño is also characterized by unusually warm waters in the Pacific. Klotzbach compared the warm waters of El Niño to loaded dice.

“If the waters are a little bit warmer, that will load the dice for the storm to get stronger.”

“To get to a hurricane, you need to have warm water,” he said. “You need to have a lot of other stuff as well, but if the waters are a little bit warmer, that will load the dice for the storm to get stronger.”

El Niño isn’t the only reason our oceans are warming.

At a press briefing hosted by Covering Climate Now prior to the NOAA press conference, Shel Winkley, a meteorologist at Climate Central, noted that about 90% of the excess heat caused by greenhouse gas emissions has gone into Earth’s oceans, as the planet tries to keep our atmosphere in balance.

“We’re not saying that climate change necessarily creates hurricanes,” Winkley said. “But it is supercharging them: More intense winds, heavier rain, bigger flooding. That’s the connection that we can confidently draw.”

—Emily Gardner (@emfurd.bsky.social), Associate Editor

Citation: Gardner, E. (2026), NOAA forecasts a below-average hurricane season, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260171. Published on 21 May 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

A new international study led by Lander Van Tricht (Vrije Universiteit Brussel, ETH Zürich), shows that glaciers in Central Asia experienced their most extreme mass-loss year on record in 2025, designated as the International Year of Glaciers Preservation by the United Nations, following an initiative from Tajikistan. The findings are published in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Tectonics

At subduction zones, one tectonic plate dives beneath another, dragging rocks tens of kilometers into Earth’s interior where they are transformed by extreme pressures and temperatures. Some of these deeply buried rocks make it back to the surface, carrying a record of conditions along the plate boundary at depth. Geologists have long debated how these high-pressure rocks are exhumed and how they end up mixed into younger, lower-grade surrounding material.

Wang et al. [2026] address this question with detailed geologic mapping, Ar-Ar analyses, and U-Pb geochronology from subduction complex rocks on Cedros Island, offshore Baja California, Mexico. Their data show that high-pressure blocks yield cooling ages between 172 and 144 million years old, yet they are hosted in sedimentary rocks no older than about 92 million years. This age mismatch, combined with field evidence that the blocks are enveloped in sedimentary matrix rather than tectonically sheared into place, leads the authors to propose that the high-pressure rocks were exhumed to the surface, eroded, and recycled back into the subduction trench as sedimentary debris, potentially multiple times. The authors suggest that rapid exhumation was driven by extension within the forearc wedge. When plate convergence rates dropped abruptly, the wedge became gravitationally unstable and stretched along brittle-ductile shear zones, bringing deeply buried rocks to shallow crustal levels.

This polycyclic model is incompatible with alternative interpretations in which exotic blocks were mixed into their host matrix by viscous return flow within the subduction channel, because such models predict that blocks and their surrounding matrix should share similar thermal histories. Instead, the data require that blocks completed their journey to depth and back long before the surrounding sediments even entered the trench. The new understanding of subduction dynamics on Cedros Islands illuminates connections with the broader Franciscan Complex of California, where the origin of similar high-pressure blocks in younger matrix has been debated for decades. Together, these findings offer new perspectives on how subduction zones operate over long timescales and how their fragmentary rock record preserves fundamental evidence of the tectonic history of the continental margin. 

Citation: Wang, J. W., Kapp, P., Holder, R., He, J., Hernández-Uribe, D., & Worthington, J. (2026). Polycyclic metamorphism, exhumation, and recycling of subduction complex rocks, Cedros Island, Baja California. Tectonics, 45, e2025TC009340. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025TC009340

­­—Alexis Ault, Associate Editor, Tectonics

Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Wind-driven waves on Earth move sediments and shape shorelines. They transport energy between the atmosphere and planetary surface and also mix bodies of liquid, affecting both chemistry and biology. On other worlds with surface liquids, either now or in the past, wind waves would likely perform the same function and so would play a key role in climate and astrobiological potential.

“They’re basically the interface between how the atmosphere communicates with the landscape, especially at the coast.”

New research went back to the fundamentals and explored the conditions that can generate waves on worlds with different physical properties and different liquids, such as Titan, Mars, and select exoplanets.

“Wind waves are really interesting phenomena,” said Una Schneck, a planetary science doctoral student at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in Cambridge. “They’re basically the interface between how the atmosphere communicates with the landscape, especially at the coast.”

The Physics of Waves

Past models of wind generation on other planets struggled because they tended to start from preexisting models of Earth waves. Those models were developed to describe waves in Earth’s specific combination of gravity, atmosphere, and surface liquid, namely, water, said Schneck, who led the new research. Such models were sometimes tailored to describe a particular location and season. Adapting those models for conditions on other worlds, including other liquids like methane and sulfuric acid, always seems to leave traces of Earth behind.

However, the physics of what creates wind-driven waves should be universal, Schneck said, so the team went back to the basics of wave generation. They developed a wave model that explores the relationship between a world’s bulk properties, like gravity and air density, and liquid properties, like surface tension, to determine the wind strength needed to produce a wave.

The team “created this model that went back to the basic physics of waves, instead of just trying to fit to known wave conditions,” said Taylor Perron, an MIT geomorphologist and planetary scientist and coauthor of the research.

The Curiosity rover landed in Gale Crater on Mars (left) and has since found evidence—wavy bedforms—that this former crater lake had waves. Titan’s northern hemisphere hosts a sprawling lake district (right). The shores of one of the moon’s largest bodies of liquid, Ligeia Mare, shows evidence of wave activity. Credit: Left: NASA/JPL-Caltech/ESA/DLR/FU Berlin/MSSS; right: NASA/JPL-Caltech/ASI/USGS

The model showed that the threshold wind speed to generate a wave is lower for liquids with less surface tension, which makes it easier to change the liquid’s shape. Higher air density provides more force to push against a liquid’s surface, and lower gravity makes it easier for a wave to rise up—both factors allow a weaker wind to create a wave. The team published these results in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets in April.

Waves on Other Worlds

The team first tested their model on the only set of wind and wave data we have—Earth. They used 20 years of wave and weather data for Lake Superior. The model found, correctly, that it takes wind speeds of 2.2 meters per second to generate waves on the lake’s surface and accurately predicted the height of waves for different wind speeds.

They then used the model to predict wave conditions on other worlds. They started with Mars, which likely had ancient oceans and lakes. Winds of 1.2 meters per second would have created waves in the lake that filled Gale Crater millions of years ago. A wave in Gale Crater would have been taller than a wave on Earth produced by wind of the same strength owing to Mars’s lower gravity.

The story is similar on Titan, the largest moon of Saturn. Waves in Titan’s hydrocarbon lakes would swell with a mere 0.5 meter per second of wind and would rise higher than an Earth wave under similar wind conditions. But they would travel much more slowly than Earth waves and would be spaced farther apart.

“The paper represents our best theoretical understanding of how we expect for waves to behave in a variety of environments,” said Jason Barnes, a planetary scientist at the University of Idaho in Moscow who was not involved with this research. “The movie of Titan waves is particularly awesome—very slow moving for such large amplitudes! Although I don’t expect waves to get that high ever in Titan’s sluggish atmosphere, it’s fun to be able to visualize what they might look like if they did.”

“In theory, this is something that people could do.”

The team also explored wave-generating conditions on three Earth-sized exoplanets. The possible sulfuric acid lakes of the exo-Venus Kepler-1649 b would grow in winds of 5.3 meters per second but would grow to a height similar to that of Earth waves because of its Earth-like gravity. Water lakes on LHS 1140 b would grow in 2.7 meter winds, similar to those on Earth, but would not grow as high because of its higher gravity. And on 55 Cancri e, a lava world, it would take winds of 37 meters per second—a category 1 hurricane—to move tiny waves of molten rock.

“Would you be able to ever detect this? Is this a useful thing to think about, or is it just a fun thought experiment?” Schneck asked. “If the waves are tall enough, you should be able to detect a change in the polarization [of an exoplanet’s light curve] that would not only suggest that there is a liquid surface on that exoplanet, but that liquid surface has waves.…In theory, this is something that people could do.”

Will We See It? Not Soon

Right now, the only world known to have surface liquid other than Earth is Titan, but we don’t have the right observations of Titan to test the new model. The European Space Agency’s Huygens probe landed on the moon in 2005, but nowhere near the northern lake district. NASA’s Cassini mission (of which Huygens was a part) did not detect any waves but did observe a changing lake shore that hinted at wave activity.

It’s possible that Titan’s waves are seasonal and Cassini just didn’t have the right timing, Perron noted. Temperature changes during Saturn’s year could affect wind speeds and also the composition of Titan’s lakes, changing the conditions of wave generation.

Still, the wind speed needed to make a wave on Titan is so low that “it would be very surprising if waves never formed. It just may be difficult to catch them when they’re there,” he said.

“The best way to test this work would be to send a sea probe to float or motor on one of Titan’s big 3 seas.”

“The best way to test this work would be to send a sea probe to float or motor on one of Titan’s big 3 seas—Kraken Mare, Ligeia Mare, or Punga Mare,” Barnes said. “Such a ‘buoy’ probe would be able to simultaneously measure both the sea conditions and the wind conditions, allowing for a comprehensive test of the model.”

Alas, no such mission is in the works, and the upcoming Dragonfly mission won’t travel near any lakes to test this theory either. A future Titan orbiter might provide that information, while a current or future Mars rover might yet gather evidence showing how lakes worked in that planet’s past.

“The improved understanding of waves from this paper might help to constrain the possibilities for wave erosion at the margins of bodies of water…thereby helping us to probe into the past climates of Mars and Titan,” Barnes said.

—Kimberly M. S. Cartier (@astrokimcartier.bsky.social), Staff Writer

Citation: Cartier, K. M. S. (2026), What winds whip up otherworldly waves?, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260165. Published on 21 May 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Arsenic-contaminated groundwater affects more than 230 million people living in 108 countries. About 180 million of these people live in the Indian subcontinent (which includes Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan, in addition to India) and Southeast Asia. The Indian state of Bihar, which borders Nepal, has several regions with extremely high levels of naturally occurring arsenic in their groundwater.

In Bihar, silt from the Himalayas containing arsenic and other heavy metals is routinely deposited in floodplains and seeps into the groundwater below. This phenomenon puts up to 21 million residents in Bihar at risk of consuming arsenic-contaminated water each day. Arsenic is a carcinogen that has also been linked to diabetes, pulmonary disease, cardiovascular disease, and infant mortality.

Though Bihar has close to 600 groundwater treatment units designed to filter out arsenic, a recent study of 98 units found that 90% of them were installed in parts of the state where groundwater arsenic levels were within the World Health Organization’s permissible limits (below 10 parts per billion)—which means almost all the communities that need these units the most still do not have access to them. The research was published in Groundwater for Sustainable Development.

“Some of the areas with these units had reported a higher prevalence of gallbladder cancer, which is associated with arsenic poisoning. But we found that it was the food that was the main source of arsenic exposure, not groundwater,” said Arun Kumar, a study author and senior scientist at Mahavir Cancer Sansthan & Research Centre in Patna, the state’s capital city. “In the last decade, we have observed drastic changes in groundwater arsenic levels in Bihar. Along with that, the cancer burden has also reduced in some parts of the state.”

In another city, Buxar, Kumar and his colleagues observed levels of arsenic of up to 1,900 parts per billion in the groundwater in 2015. But when the researchers retested that region’s water samples last year, the arsenic levels had gone down to 100–200 parts per billion.

“We hypothesize that because Bihar is prone to earthquakes, the seismic activity might have changed the properties of sediments and silt in groundwater. And perhaps, at some stage, those regions with the groundwater treatment units had experienced arsenic contamination,” added Kumar. “It is still a mystery to us” why the levels changed so drastically.

Ditching Groundwater for River Water

Kumar acknowledged that in the past few years, there has been a mushrooming of public and private groundwater arsenic treatment units in regions located within 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) of the Ganges River in Bihar. The majority of the 98 units included in the study were installed by the state government from 2016 onward. The researchers observed that privately owned units underwent regular maintenance, unlike many of the government-run units.

“Much of the previous large-scale groundwater testing conducted in Bihar was limited to the 6-mile stretch on either side of the Ganges River.”

The corresponding author of the study, Laura Richards, a professor of water resources and geochemistry at the University of Manchester, explained that regions close to the Ganges River may have been given higher priority mainly because they are situated along major roads and highways, making them easier to access than inland Bihar.

“Much of the previous large-scale groundwater testing conducted in Bihar was limited to the 6-mile stretch on either side of the Ganges River. The issue with that is that the regions selected for arsenic remediation units were likely based on nonrepresentative spatial sampling of the state, and those locations might not have necessarily covered all areas with arsenic contamination in the groundwater,” said Richards. “Arsenic distribution across the state is really quite heterogeneous.”

The researchers further found that in 10% of the locations where groundwater arsenic treatment units were installed by the state government, high levels of fluoride posed a greater public health risk than arsenic, suggesting that governmental policies were rolled out without site-specific water quality monitoring and testing.

“Alluvial or sand-rich aquifers are the main culprits of arsenic-contaminated water in Indian terrains.”

In addition to arsenic and fluoride, the groundwater in different parts of Bihar has high levels of manganese and iron. Currently, the state has more than 3,000 groundwater treatment units for arsenic, fluoride, and iron. However, Kumar said a better solution would be to look to other sources for drinking water and to ensure water treatment centers are properly maintained.

“People would be a lot safer if they stopped consuming groundwater altogether,” Kumar said. “This is why the state government has started treating and supplying water from the Ganges River to villages. They have already started doing it in two districts and plan on expanding the supply of river water.”

“Alluvial or sand-rich aquifers are the main culprits of arsenic-contaminated water in Indian terrains,” said M. Santosh, a professor at the China University of Geosciences in Beijing who was not involved in this study. “This study clearly shows how we can rectify remedial measures on a local level. We should encourage more such studies on how to tackle this problem.”

—Anuradha Varanasi, Science Writer

Citation: Varanasi, A. (2026), In Bihar, groundwater treatment units were installed in regions that didn’t need them, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260168. Published on 21 May 2026. Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: AGU Advances

Most auroras appear in the “auroral oval” at high latitudes surrounding the magnetic poles. However, some can appear as a detached auroral arc from the auroral oval, at lower latitudes in mid-afternoon and connected to the oval only at a tip or two. Such a detached arc is believed to be linked to the “plasmaspheric plume,” the tongue-shaped extension of the plasmasphere during the recovery phase of a geomagnetic storm. (The plasmasphere is the torus-shaped region of cold, dense plasma above the low- and mid-latitude ionosphere.) The surface waves at the plume boundary cause it to ripple and modulate the various plasma waves in the plume.

Based on observations from multiple satellites and ground stations, Feng et al. [2026] find sawtooth-like undulations along the equatorward boundary of a detached auroral arc in the ultraviolet that was produced by energetic (>keV) electrons and accompanied by energetic (>10 keV) ions. The authors attribute the undulations to Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron (EMIC) waves that are modulated by the surface waves and resonating with the energetic ions. The study unravels the fine-scale structures of detached auroral arcs and sheds important light on the dynamics underlying their formation.

Schematic illustration of the formation mechanism for the sawtooth-like undulations of a detached auroral arc. The surface waves modulate the Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron (EMIC) waves in the plasmaspheric plume, causing the energetic ions to precipitate into the ionosphere and resulting in the formation of an afternoon detached auroral arc with sawtooth-like undulations. Credit: Feng et al. [2026], Figure 4

Citation: Feng, H., Wang, D., Hao, Y., Miyoshi, Y., Fu, H., Jun, C.-W., et al. (2026). First observation of sawtooth-like undulations in afternoon detached auroral arcs modulated by surface waves at the plasmaspheric plume boundary. AGU Advances, 7, e2025AV002234. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV002234

—Andrew Yau, Editor, AGU Advances

Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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New research from the University of St Andrews has precisely dated an eruption from Newberry Volcano and discovered that its ash spread more than 5,000 km across the globe, far further than previously thought for an eruption of its size.