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Arctic Report Card Will Move Ahead Without NOAA

EOS - Tue, 08/18/2026 - 21:58
body {background-color: #D2D1D5;} Research & Developments is a blog for brief updates that provide context for the flurry of news regarding law and policy changes that impact science and scientists today.

The Arctic Report Card, an annual, peer-reviewed evaluation of the state of our warming Arctic, will still be published this year despite a lack of financial or logistical support from NOAA. 

On 10 August, editors of the Arctic Report Card were informed that NOAA will no longer support its publication, meaning the agency will not provide the report with coordinating editors, coordinate its external peer review, or fund the report’s web presence, publicity, graphics, or summary video. 

After a meeting of non-NOAA editors and chapter authors, however, the Arctic Report Card team has decided to move forward with publishing the 2026 report. Many of the report’s authors had been well into their work on their chapters when they learned that NOAA would no longer support that work.

“While many of the details are not final, we will be producing an ARC sans NOAA this year,” Rick Thoman, an Arctic scientist at the University of Alaska Fairbanks and an editor of the 2026 report, wrote in a message to Eos. Thoman said the team is not yet sharing which organization will host the 2026 Arctic Report Card, but that there has been a “tremendous outpouring of support for the Arctic Report Card, from individuals to large organizations.”

 
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He said the team plans to move forward with the original plan to present the report’s findings in a press conference at the 2026 AGU Annual Meeting in San Francisco, Calif. this December. Thoman also said the group of editors and authors is “pursuing multiple avenues” to produce the report’s graphics and summary video, and that they are planning to establish a non-NOAA website to serve as a long-term home for the Arctic Report Card in future years. 

“A lot of what we’re doing right now is, ‘How do we get this year’s report card out?’” he said. “But we are looking at the longer term, [also].”

The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), part of the Arctic Council (an international Arctic policy and research collaboration), previously found reviewers and carried out the review process for the report. According to Thoman, AMAP has committed to providing that service for the 2026 report card. 

Science for Stakeholders

Having support from NOAA gave the report a heightened credibility for stakeholders, said Walter Meier, a sea ice scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center and a longtime author of the report’s sea ice chapter. “NOAA has had a strong reputation for providing high quality data, high quality observations, analysis, and research,” he said. “When you have that NOAA stamp of approval, people trust in that.” 

“I’m confident that the science will be of the same high quality.”

Still, he said not much would change about the scientific content of the report once it is hosted by a new organization. “I’m confident that the science will be of the same high quality,” he said. “I don’t feel there will be any loss [of quality], which is really the most important part.”

The report being outside of NOAA’s purview also “allows much more flexibility in language,” for the authors, Thoman said. He added that creating an Arctic Report Card without NOAA may allow the report to be more internationally focused than it has been previously.

—Grace van Deelen (@gvd.bsky.social), Staff Writer

These updates are made possible through information from the scientific community. Do you have a story about how changes in law or policy are affecting scientists or research? Send us a tip at eos@agu.org. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Plants could transform how scientists measure the climate benefits of tidal marshes

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 08/18/2026 - 20:50
Growing up in New Jersey, Emily Wilson regularly passed tidal marshes without giving them much thought. They were part of the coastal landscape—stretches of green and blue she saw from the road.

Forest Service to End Protection for 45 Million Acres of Forest

EOS - Tue, 08/18/2026 - 20:49
body {background-color: #D2D1D5;} Research & Developments is a blog for brief updates that provide context for the flurry of news regarding law and policy changes that impact science and scientists today.

The U.S. Forest Service has moved forward with a rule to withdraw protections from 45 million acres of pristine national forests by rescinding the 2001 Roadless Area Conservation Rule. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) first announced its intent to rescind the Roadless Rule in June 2025 and it has now taken the next step to do so.

In today’s announcement, Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins claimed that the Roadless Rule increases wildfire risk by preventing land managers from maintaining national forests.

“For too long, outdated restrictions have kept tens of millions of forested acres off-limits to the very treatments that improve forest health and reduce wildfire risk to our communities,” Rollins said in a statement. “Today, we filed a proposal to restore authority to local forest managers who know the land best, removing the barriers that have kept them from doing the work the land demands. It’s time to turn the page on the failed roadless rule and return our forests to health and productivity.”

However, this justification is not backed up by data. Research has shown that nearly 85% of wildland fires begin with human activity, either accidentally or deliberately. What’s more, human-caused fires are much more destructive than naturally-caused fires from, for example, lighting strikes. Building roads would bring more people into former wildlands, thereby increasing wildfire risk despite the increased access for maintenance, several forest experts told the New York Times.

The Trump Administration “is trying to walk away from the most successful land conservation policy in modern U.S. history.”

“The truth is that roadless forests are our greatest defense against wildfire,” David Jenkins, president of the nonprofit Conservatives for Responsible Stewardship, said in a media statement. “Not only are old growth forests naturally resistant to fire, but 90% of all wildfires in the U.S. occur within a half mile of a road. Any claims to the contrary are demonstrably false.”

Most of the inventoried roadless areas are in western states, with more than 95% located in Alaska, Arizona, California, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. However, the proposed rule does not apply to Colorado and Idaho, which have state-specific roadless regulations.

Some suspect that the administration’s true intent is not to reduce wildfire risk but to drastically increase logging production.

“The Trump administration is moving to gut our most iconic national forests by giving loggers and drillers free rein to turn them into industrial wastelands. It is trying to walk away from the most successful land conservation policy in modern U.S. history,” Andrew Wetzler, senior vice president for nature at the nonprofit Natural Resources Defense Council, said in a statement.

Jenkins added, “This is one of the most boneheaded and fiscally irresponsible actions this administration could take. The agency doesn’t have the budget to take care of the 368,000 miles of roads already riddling our national forests. In fact, there is currently a $10.8 billion maintenance backlog.”

 
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The Roadless Rule was enacted by the Clinton administration in 2001 to prevent logging and development on millions of acres of pristine forest across the country. For 25 years, this rule has protected crucial habitats for migratory species, headwaters for municipal water supplies, and old-growth forests which act as significant carbon sinks. If the rule was rescinded, those forests and the ecosystem services they provide would be at risk.

“Once we cut a road through these forests, we don’t get their values back,” Wetzler said. “The forest fragments. The streams and rivers are degraded by runoff. Iconic wildlife struggles to find suitable habitat. And we get stuck with even more roads in a vast network the agency already can’t maintain.”

The Roadless Rule itself is hugely popular, garnering around 75% public support. Nearly 626,000 public comments were submitted on the USDA’s 2025 draft proposal to eliminate the rule, with more than 99% of comments calling for the rule to stand. Former U.S. Forest Service chiefs, lawmakers, Tribal leaders, scientists, and wildland firefighters have also defended the rule.

The Forest Service’s proposal will be published in the Federal Register on 20 August, after which it will accept public comments before finalizing the rule change.

—Kimberly M. S. Cartier (@astrokimcartier.bsky.social), Staff Writer

These updates are made possible through information from the scientific community. Do you have a story about how changes in law or policy are affecting scientists or research? Send us a tip at eos@agu.org. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Yellowstone's past droughts may signal less geyser activity and more wildfires

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 08/18/2026 - 17:20
A study led by a Montana State University research professor reveals how climate and hydrothermal activity have shaped the vegetation, wildfire and aquatic ecosystem histories of the Yellowstone Plateau over the past 15,000 years. The results of the project were published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Layered rock in India shows potential signs of microbial life dating to 3.5 billion years ago

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 08/18/2026 - 16:30
A team of researchers reports that they may have found rock containing some of the earliest forms of microbial life on Earth. Their study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, describes the biosignatures found in this 3.5-billion-year-old, carbon-rich, layered rock, called chert.

Fiber-optic cable reveals hidden crevasses that could destabilize glaciers

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 08/18/2026 - 16:00
In recent years, the Alps have experienced devastating glacier collapses: In September 2023, a section of the Marmolada glacier in the Dolomites collapsed, resulting in the deaths of seven mountaineers. Just over a year and a half later, in May 2025, the Birch Glacier above Blatten collapsed, keeping Switzerland and the entire world in suspense.

Drought Extremes are Intensifying More Rapidly Than in the Past

EOS - Tue, 08/18/2026 - 13:55
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: AGU Advances

Droughts are becoming an increasing global concern as their impacts intensify. Understanding how climate change affects drought frequency and severity is essential for projecting future drought risk. In this context, the question raised by Helpap et al. [2026]—”are modern droughts unprecedented?”—has a high scientific relevance. Here, 20 ensemble members from a 600-year climate simulation and reanalysis data from the period 1950-2024 are analyzed to place recent droughts in a multi-century context. It is concluded that drought extremes are intensifying more rapidly beyond the range experienced in the past than moderate droughts. Therefore, an increasing likelihood of droughts reaching unprecedented magnitudes is expected in the near future, thus highlighting the urgency for adaptation measures in water resources and environmental management.

Citation: Helpap, P., Brönnimann, S., Hand, R., Franke, J., Raible, C. C., & Stocker, B. D. (2026). Are modern droughts unprecedented? AGU Advances, 7, e2026AV002536. https://doi.org/10.1029/2026AV002536

—Alberto Montanari, Editor-in-Chief, AGU Advances

Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

AI reconstructs hidden history of Earth's mantle flow from surface clues

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 08/18/2026 - 13:20
The mantle, a rocky layer accounting for more than 80% of Earth's volume, circulates at rates of only a few centimeters per year. This circulation drives plate tectonics and influences major geological phenomena such as earthquakes and volcanic activity. Despite its fundamental importance, the history of mantle circulation remains poorly understood because direct observations of the deep Earth are extremely limited. Currently, scientists rely on geological records of past surface movements and geophysical imaging methods, including seismic observations, to infer the mantle's structure and behavior. However, reconstructing historical mantle flow remains a major challenge.

Drier soils may turn late summer into prolonged extreme heat

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 08/18/2026 - 13:20
The summers of recent years have been hot, but not unusual from a meteorological perspective. According to researchers at Leipzig University, though, the next extreme summer would far exceed anything we have experienced so far.

Aerial imagery maps hurricane wind damage and shows stronger building codes work

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 08/18/2026 - 12:40
Massive storms like Hurricane Katrina in 2005, which caused more than $100 billion in damage, were once considered lifetime events. Increasingly, however, they are becoming the norm: a direct result of climate change, which has made large storms more frequent, intense and slower-moving, deepening their impact.

Conserved thermomechanic invariant in extended fluid description of collisionless plasmas

Physical Review E (Plasma physics) - Tue, 08/18/2026 - 10:00

Author(s): E. S. Uchava and A. G. Tevzadze

We investigate linear perturbations of an incompressible, weakly collisional, anisotropic plasma in the low frequency limit using an extended 16-moment fluid description that retains parallel and perpendicular heat fluxes. We identify a class of linear perturbations associated with a conserved therm…


[Phys. Rev. E 114, 025206] Published Tue Aug 18, 2026

High-harmonic optical vortex generation from a plasma aperture

Physical Review E (Plasma physics) - Tue, 08/18/2026 - 10:00

Author(s): Runze Li, Wenchao Yan, and Longqing Yi

When a high-power, femtosecond, circularly polarized (CP) laser pulse impinges on a micrometer-scale aperture in a solid foil target, it drives surface plasma oscillation on the boundary, and generates high-order harmonic vortices in the diffracted light [L. Yi, Phys. Rev. Lett. 126, 134801 (2021).]…


[Phys. Rev. E 114, 025207] Published Tue Aug 18, 2026

Images of the aftermath of the 13 August 2026 tailings storage facility failure at the Semancor Dikwena Chrome Mine in South Africa

EOS - Tue, 08/18/2026 - 07:21

The Landslide Blog is written by Dave Petley, who is widely recognized as a world leader in the study and management of landslides.

On social media, the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, Republic of South Africa has released two aerial images of the aftermath of the 13 August 2026 tailings storage facility failure at the Semancor Dikwena Chrome Mine in South Africa.

The first shows the tailings storage facility (TSF) itself, including the loss of slimes:-

The aftermath of the TSF failure at the Samancor Dikwena Chrome Mine tailings storage facility near Brits. Image released by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources on social media.

It is interesting to note the small-scale slope failures on the tailings wall in the foreground (I’d be interested to know if this was expected as part of the design), but also the fact that this TSF has been raised above those on either side.

The second shows the breach itself:-

The aftermath of the TSF failure at the Samancor Dikwena Chrome Mine tailings storage facility near Brits. Image released by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources on social media.

I’m no expert on TSF construction, but this one has a complex history. There is a very detailed archive of images on Google Earth. So for example, this was the facility in August 2015:-

Google Earth image of the TSF that failed at the Samancor Dikwena tailings storage facility near Brits. Image from 2015.

Note that this was a single facility at that stage.

This is the same site in June 2022:-

Google Earth image of the TSF that failed at the Samancor Dikwena tailings storage facility near Brits. Image from 2022.

The eastern end of the facility (which failed) had become vegetated with little sign of human activity. There was some work going on at the western end.

If we jump to July 2025, we see the facility had been raised and subdivided, and that active deposition was occurring in both sections. The one that failed (known as 1b) was notably higher than the one to the west.

Google Earth image of the TSF that failed at the Samancor Dikwena tailings storage facility near Brits. Image from 2025.

It is good to see that Semancor has taken full responsibility for “the repair of any infrastructure and the rehabilitation of the affected area“, noting of course that the global mining industry does not have a good track record of actually delivering against such commitments.

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

A Novel Three-Observation-Link Satellite Formation for Enhanced Temporal Gravity Field Recovery

Geophysical Journal International - Tue, 08/18/2026 - 00:00
SummarySatellite formation configuration plays a crucial role in formulating the next generation gravity mission aiming at improving the accuracy and spatiotemporal resolution of Earth’s gravity field modeling. For the proposed GRACE-Pendulum (GRACE-P) formation, technical challenges and limited accuracy gains from the third observation link led to the adoption of only two baselines, without incorporating the third link perpendicular to the GRACE-type baseline, resulting in potential limitations in modeling accuracy. With future technological advancements overcoming these constraints, this study first proposes a complete triangular GRACE-Pendulum-full (GRACE-PF) formation, which includes the omitted third link, to explore the upper limit of accuracy achievable with this formation geometry. Building on this, we further introduce a novel satellite formation, namely the Three-Observation-Link (Three-OL) formation, inspired by the Chinese TianQin gravitational wave detection project. While geometrically similar to GRACE-PF, Three-OL does not include a GRACE-type baseline. To systematically evaluate the performance of these formations, a closed-loop simulation experiment was conducted, followed by a comparative analysis of GRACE-P, GRACE-PF, and Three-OL formations in the spectral-spatial domain. Specifically, spatial-domain results show that GRACE-PF outperforms GRACE-P by 28.7 per cent globally, confirming the accuracy contribution of the third link. Three-OL exhibits superior performance to GRACE-PF, with higher accuracy for mid-high degree signals in the spectral domain, and an 11.3 per cent accuracy improvement over land areas in the spatial domain. Furthermore, compared with the mainstream Bender and GRACE formations, Three-OL reduces the residual RMS over land areas by 28.4 per cent and 75.9 per cent, respectively, while also demonstrating improved capability for recovering sub-monthly gravity signals. In summary, this study reveals the accuracy potential of the complete GRACE-P configuration and proposes a novel formation capable of supporting high-precision temporal gravity field modeling. This work provides a feasible and efficient formation design for gravity satellite missions dedicated to Earth’s gravity field detection.

A weakening Atlantic Ocean current system could accelerate Earth's warming

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 08/17/2026 - 22:10
A current system in the Atlantic Ocean that shapes regional climates and distributes ocean nutrients also serves as a control knob to help regulate temperatures across the planet, new research has found.

Labrador Sea a key player in providing oxygen for deep North Atlantic life

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 08/17/2026 - 21:40
Researchers from Cornell University have pinpointed the source of oxygen that sustains deep-sea life in the North Atlantic Ocean: the churning waters in the Labrador Sea.

Unlocking Gondwana's 120-million-year archive: Karoo record refines timing of extinctions and climate upheavals

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 08/17/2026 - 19:30
A new review led by professor Emese Bordy at the University of Cape Town (UCT) Department of Geological Sciences brings together more than two decades of research on the Karoo Supergroup, revealing how scientific understanding of this iconic geological archive has changed since 2000.

Scientists Define a New Category of Heat Wave: “Snow Eaters”

EOS - Mon, 08/17/2026 - 12:07

This story was originally published by Grist. Sign up for Grist’s weekly newsletter here.

Matthew LaPlante doesn’t have to go to a lab to see his research in action. On some mornings, he can just look out his own window in the mountains high above Salt Lake City. After a warm night when the temperature stays above freezing, he’ll wake up and see that the snow level has dropped by inches, revealing more of the aspens he taps for syrup.

“It feels like a monster came and just in the middle of the night, took a bite out of a snowpack.”

“It feels like a monster came and just in the middle of the night, took a bite out of a snowpack,” said LaPlante, a journalist and climate scientist at Utah State University.

So it’s fitting that scientists have started calling these kinds of heat waves, marked by unusually high temperatures in the spring and early summer, “snow eaters.”

LaPlante was part of a recent study, published in the journal Science Advances, that attempted, for the first time, to identify what conditions exactly make for a “snow eater.” Compared to normal warm spells or heat waves, the researchers determined that these events happen when temperatures stay above freezing through both day and night for multiple days, typically three to five. These events can roughly double the rate at which snow melts, causing flooding and making it challenging to manage water resources.

“Snow eaters” appear to be occurring earlier in the year and becoming more widespread in the Western United States as the climate warms. Since the 1850s, the study found, the area affected by snow eaters has increased by an average of about 40,000 square miles per century, and the first snow eater of the season has been arriving about one month earlier per century.

The term “snow eater” has a murky history. By at least the 1880s, people in the West were talking about “snow-eating” chinooks, warm mountain winds that make snow disappear quickly. More recently, the phrase “snow-eater heat wave” first made headlines in March, when an early heat wave enveloped much of the West, quickly wiping away snowpack in the Colorado Rockies and California’s Sierra Nevada. The scientists hope the catchy, evocative term can help draw more attention to this type of heat wave, since there’s still a lot to learn. The study only looked at the Western U.S., but snow eater heat waves almost assuredly occur elsewhere, LaPlante said.

Solar radiation is a major, but sometimes overlooked, driver of snowmelt, said Noah Molotch, a professor of geography at the University of Colorado Boulder who was not involved in the new study. When it interacts with heat waves, those impacts are amplified. As snow crystals warm up, they lose some of their structure and light-reflecting abilities, causing snowpacks to absorb more sunlight and melt faster. “It’s a little bit of a—no pun intended—a snowball effect,” he said.

Much of the Western U.S. saw record-low snowpack this spring. What was really unusual about it, Molotch said, was how widespread it was. Colorado received less precipitation than normal this winter, while California got lots of precipitation, but in the form of rain instead of snow. But across the region, “the one thing in common was above-average air temperatures,” Molotch said.

These conditions have likely helped fuel exceptionally severe wildfires in the West, from Utah to Spokane, Washington, where hundreds of homes burned earlier this month. “Drought stress for mountain forests around the Western U.S. is heavily dictated by the snow that accumulates each winter and then melts through the spring and summer,” Molotch said. “There is a direct connection there in terms of the water availability and drought stress that can provide one of the important ingredients for increases in wildfire intensity and frequency.”

“At night, it used to be quiet. And now it’s not quiet, because everything’s melting all the time.”

If scientists are able to better predict what will happen to snowpack, it could help water managers plan for what’s coming. Early or rapid snowmelt poses problems for managing water resources in the West, where snowpack serves as a key source of fresh water in the drier summer months. “Water that would otherwise be stored as snow comes out early, and then we have to deal with it as a hazard instead of a resource at our reservoirs and along the rivers and streams,” said Ben Hatchett, a co-author on the study and a scientist at Colorado State University’s Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere.

Snow-eater heat waves also may pose risks to skiers, hikers, and anyone else on or near mountains. They could be linked to hazards such as avalanches, glacial collapses, and permafrost melt, Hatchett said, though scientists are still investigating those connections. He lives in the Sierra Nevada, and he’s noticed one tangible change over his lifetime: The soundscape has changed.

“At night, it used to be quiet,” he said. “And now it’s not quiet, because everything’s melting all the time.”

—Katie Yoder (@katemyoder), Grist

This article originally appeared in Grist at https://grist.org/science/new-heat-wave-category-snow-eaters-study/.

Grist is a nonprofit, independent media organization dedicated to reporting on climate change.

New model measures full economic value of accurate hurricane forecasts

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 08/17/2026 - 12:00
When it comes to the cost of a bad forecast, researchers have gone beyond damaged buildings and vehicles to calculate the cost of injuries, evacuations and the long-term loss of public trust.

Tracking electron capture process in classical molecular dynamics simulations for spectral line broadening in plasmas

Physical Review E (Plasma physics) - Mon, 08/17/2026 - 10:00

Author(s): D. González-Herrero, G. Pérez-Callejo, R. Florido, and M. A. Gigosos

Plasma spectroscopy is a fundamental tool for diagnosing laboratory and astrophysical plasmas. Accurate interpretation of spectra depends upon precise modeling and comprehension of Stark broadening and other mechanisms affecting spectral lines. In this context, computer simulations have emerged as v…


[Phys. Rev. E 114, 025204] Published Mon Aug 17, 2026

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