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New Earthquake Model Goes Against the Grain

EOS - Mon, 10/27/2025 - 12:50
Source: Geophysical Research Letters

When a slab slides beneath an overriding plate in a subduction zone, the slab takes on a property called anisotropy, meaning its strength is not the same in all directions. Anisotropy is what causes a wooden board to break more easily along the grain than in other directions. In rock, the alignment of minerals such as clay, serpentine, and olivine can lead to anisotropy. Pockets of water in rock can also cause and enhance anisotropy, as repeated dehydration and rehydration commonly occur at depth in a subducting slab.

It is well known that an earthquake generates both a compressional wave and a shear wave. If the shear wave passes through anisotropic rock, it can split into a faster shear wave and a slower one with different polarizations.

Although seismologists routinely measure the shear wave splitting in subduction zones by analyzing recorded seismic waveform data, it is challenging to pinpoint where splitting occurs along the wave propagation path.

In the past, researchers have investigated the circulation of Earth’s interior for answers, in particular in the mantle wedge region above and below the slab. However, Appini et al. suggest a different explanation: that, contrary to popular wisdom, it is the downgoing slab that causes most of the shear wave splitting.

The researchers tested their theory using recordings of 2,567 shear waves from the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone. They found that the way the waves split as they propagate through the slab varied by earthquake location and that these variations were consistent with the anisotropy observed in the dipping slab. They also used a forward model to predict that the splitting pattern will differ depending on the direction the shear wave comes from, which was verified by data observation. Previously, scientists thought the variation in splitting patterns was due to complex mantle flows.

Furthermore, a dipping anisotropic slab also explains why deep earthquakes within a slab have unusual seismic wave radiation patterns. Other recent findings also hint that the composition of subducting plates causes anisotropy, the authors write.

If the slab holds most of the anisotropy, instead of the mantle wedge or subslab region, this finding has far-reaching consequences that could fundamentally change established ideas on how mantle dynamics work and how rock deforms, the authors suggest.

These results drive home the plausibility that slab anisotropy is an understudied component of seismology and geodynamics, the authors say. (Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL116411, 2025)

—Saima May Sidik (@saimamay.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Sidik, S. M. (2025), New earthquake model goes against the grain, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250403. Published on 27 October 2025. Text © 2025. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Wave topology in Hall magnetohydrodynamics

Physical Review E (Plasma physics) - Mon, 10/27/2025 - 10:00

Author(s): Alejandro Mesa Dame, Hong Qin, Eric Palmerduca, and Yichen Fu

Hall magnetohydrodynamics (HMHD) extends ideal MHD by incorporating the Hall effect via the induction equation, making it more accurate for describing plasma behavior at length scales below the ion skin depth. Despite its importance, a comprehensive description of the eigenmodes in HMHD has been lac…


[Phys. Rev. E 112, 045216] Published Mon Oct 27, 2025

Anticipating the impact of Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica

EOS - Mon, 10/27/2025 - 08:32

Hurricane Melissa is bearing down on Jamaica, with many areas likely to see over 500 mm of rainfall. The impacts could be extremely significant.

Hurricane Melissa has strengthened substantially over the weekend, and is now on course to track across Jamaica in the next couple of days. Various media agencies have identified the threats that this storm poses to a country with high vulnerability. As always, NOAA has excellent tracking charts for this storm.

The current forecast track will take the storm directly across Jamaica:-

The forecast track of Hurricane Melissa. Graphic from NOAA as at 07:52 UTC on 27 October 2025.

NOAA also provides data on forecast precipitation (rainfall):-

Precipitation potential for Hurricane Melissa. Graphic from NOAA as at 07:52 UTC on 27 October 2025.

There is a great deal of uncertainty in this type of forecast – the final totals will depend upon the track, the rate at which the storm moves, the intensity of the storm (and how that changes as a result of the contact with the land mass) and orographic effects. But much of Jamaica is forecast to receive over 500 mm of rainfall, and some parts may receive more than 750 mm.

Now, the average annual rainfall in Jamaica is 2,100 mm for the island as a whole, and much more in some places, so this must be seen in context. However, as I have noted often before, in most cases the dominant medium through which tropical cyclone losses occur in water (even though windspeed often grabs the headlines). As the Google Earth image below shows, the island is characterised by steep slopes – this is a recipe for channelised debris flows:-

Google Earth image showing the landscape of eastern Jamaica.

There is active preparation underway in Jamaica, including evacuations, and in Hurricane Beryl last year this was a success. However, we know that many people choose not to move, and this storm is on a different scale.

In the immediate aftermath, the initial focus will inevitably be on the capital, Kingston, as this is where the reporters are likely to be located. Watch out for news from the east of the island though, especially on the coast and on the southern and eastern sides of the mountains. In severe storms, communications are often lost, so in this case no news may well be probably bad news.

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2023. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Automated 3D modeling of seismic faults using adaptive threshold hierarchical clustering and quantitative assessment

Geophysical Journal International - Mon, 10/27/2025 - 00:00
SummaryThe complex three-dimensional (3D) geometry of active faults plays a crucial role in controlling earthquake location, extent, and rupture behavior, making the accurate representation of fault models essential. Fault structures are typically interpreted manually from relocated hypocenters and interpolated to generate 3D fault surfaces. However, this process is often non-unique and uncertain due to the uneven spatial distribution of earthquake hypocenters, the subjectivity of manual interpretation, and the complexity of non-planar faults. To address these challenges, we developed a method that combines adaptive threshold hierarchical clustering with quantitative evaluation to automatically and effectively construct 3D models of seismogenic faults. This method utilizes the nearest neighbor index (NNI) to determine whether seismic activity exhibits clustering characteristics indicative of fault structures. Adaptive threshold hierarchical clustering is subsequently applied to identify small earthquake clusters associated with each fault. High-density 3D automatic slicing ensures robust fitting of fault lines, and in combination with surface rupture data, discrete smooth interpolation (DSI) is used to construct a 3D fault model. For each fault, we calculate distances from small earthquake clusters to the 3D fault structure and analyze their spatial distribution using kernel density estimation (KDE) to optimize the model for a near-symmetric distribution of small earthquake clusters on both sides of the fault. We applied this method to the 2013 Ms 7.0 and 2022 Ms 6.1 earthquakes in southern Longmenshan, Sichuan, China, refining the 3D seismogenic fault models for both events. Additionally, we constructed a 3D fault model for the 2019 Ridgecrest Mw 7.1 earthquake sequence using the same approach. The results indicate that this method is applicable to both individual faults and multiple intersecting fault systems. Compared to traditional manual modeling approaches, our method significantly enhances the identification of small earthquake clusters, reduces reliance on manual interpretation, increases modeling efficiency, and minimizes errors. This innovative modeling technique advances the 3D geometric construction of complex active faults and is adaptable to a wide range of seismic research applications.

Enhancing Machine-Learning based Seismic Inversion with Noise-Augmented Training Datasets

Geophysical Journal International - Mon, 10/27/2025 - 00:00
SummaryAn 18-layer, U-shaped convolutional neural network (CNN) was trained to predict Vs models and identify near-surface void locations. To enhance seismic inversion accuracy for real world applications, the model is trained on synthetic datasets augmented with field noise. While models trained on noise-augmented data showed poorer performance on synthetic testing datasets, they achieved lower root mean square error values and the best results on field data. The velocity model resulting from full-waveform inversion based on noise-augmented model accurately detected a void-like low velocity zone near the known void location. This approach shows that training with field-noise-augmented data allows machine learning models to generalize better to real-world conditions, increasing their reliability for velocity inversion in noisy environments. The results highlight the strong potential of this strategy, particularly if a diverse range of real noise samples is incorporated during training.

Fast Optimal Impulsive Methods for Collision Avoidance Maneuver Based on Reachable Domain

Publication date: Available online 23 October 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Jian Li, Gang Zhang

Structural Shadowing Effects of Satellite Components on Ionospheric Electric Field Measurements

Publication date: Available online 22 October 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Soraya Makhlouf, Mourad Djebli

Spacecraft Anti-Unwinding Attitude Tracking with Guaranteed Performance: A DREM-Based Adaptive Control Approach

Publication date: Available online 22 October 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Bin Chen, Xiaodong Shao, Haoyang Yang, Dongyu Li, Qinglei Hu

An Eight-Year Global Look at Correlations between Total Electron Content, Earthquakes and Solar Wind

Publication date: Available online 22 October 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Wojciech Jarmołowski, Paweł Wielgosz, Anna Krypiak-Gregorczyk, Beata Milanowska

10 years since Aliso Canyon: Disaster was wake-up call for US on dangers of underground gas

Phys.org: Earth science - Sat, 10/25/2025 - 15:20
On an evening 10 years ago, Porter Ranch resident Matt Pakucko stepped out of his music studio and was walloped by the smell of gas—like sticking your head in an oven, he recalled.

Constraining shallow slip deficit with phase gradient data

Geophysical Journal International - Sat, 10/25/2025 - 00:00
SummaryCoseismic slip models for large (Mw > 7) strike-slip earthquakes present a variety of shallow slip deficit (SSD). Accurate estimate of SSD is difficult, and it has been suggested that SSD are to some degree associated with fault-zone characteristics, incompleteness of data coverage as well as simplified model assumptions. Furthermore, SSD can also be sensitive to the amount of model smoothness adopted. Since phase gradient are sensitive to the missing shallow slip from our simulated data, we performed a synthetic test and presented a case study of the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence to validate that phase gradient from radar interferometry could help reveal the actual SSD for kinematic slip models even without enough near-fault observation. Our results indicate that even in the presence of a greater degree of observational gaps, the phase gradient can still nearly substitute for near-fault observations in constraining the shallow slip. Lastly, we provide a preferred coseismic slip model constrained by all available observations including phase gradient, but with 4-km data gap near the fault trace. This model results in ∼35% SSD for the Ridgecrest earthquakes, matching previous estimates that incorporate near-field data. Considering the phase gradient approach is a straightforward mathematical operation, this approach may be applicable to other types of earthquakes. Notably, due to the smaller amplitude and lower signal-to-noise ratio for the phase gradient data, one needs to carefully balance the trade-offs among weights of different datasets and model smoothness.

Coupled Hydro-Electrokinetic Modeling of Surface Self-Potential Signals During Deep Hydraulic Injection

Geophysical Journal International - Sat, 10/25/2025 - 00:00
SummaryElectrokinetic signals, such as surface self-potential (SP) variations, offer a unique window into coupled fluid–electrical processes in the Earth’s crust, yet their quantitative interpretation remains challenging in complex geological settings. In this study, we develop an electrokinetic modeling framework by extending the modified Luco-Apsel-Chen generalized reflection and transmission method to simulate SP responses due to a fluid-injection source in layered geological media. After simulating electric signals, we apply location-specific amplification factors—derived from prior numerical investigations—that account for the effects of steel well casings. This post-processing step enables rigorous comparison with field observations. Using the well-documented deep fluid injection experiment at the Soultz-sous-Forêts geothermal site, we calibrate simulated pore pressure against downhole measurements to derive a realistic source function for direct comparison between modeled and observed SP signals. The model reproduces key spatiotemporal features of the mV-scale SP anomalies and, importantly, captures the observed slower decay of surface SP signals after shut-in despite the rapid decrease in deep pore pressure. Previous field-scale studies have qualitatively attributed this phenomenon to sustained ionic transport; here, our simulation results provide a quantitative demonstration that this process—driven by continued pore-fluid movement—is responsible for the slower SP decay, a mechanism not captured in earlier electrokinetic simulations. These findings provide new mechanistic insight into SP generation in stratified media, demonstrate the essential role of casing effects in field-scale interpretation, and establish a transferable framework for monitoring subsurface fluid flow in geothermal, hydrocarbon, and groundwater systems.

More than half of Tamar River wetlands lost since European settlement, study reveals

Phys.org: Earth science - Fri, 10/24/2025 - 16:20
More than half of Tasmania's largest wetland system in kanamaluka / the Tamar River has vanished since European settlement, new research from the University of Tasmania has revealed.

Permafrost study finds abrupt thaw accelerates soil phosphorus cycling, offsetting carbon release

Phys.org: Earth science - Fri, 10/24/2025 - 15:50
Permafrost thaw can stimulate the release of soil carbon, triggering a positive carbon-climate feedback that may be mediated by changes in soil phosphorus (P) availability.

Global warming is reshaping extreme precipitation events across Northern Hemisphere

Phys.org: Earth science - Fri, 10/24/2025 - 15:24
As global warming continues to reshape Earth's climate, both the occurrence and mechanisms of extreme precipitation events, such as rain and snow, are undergoing profound transformation. These changes in frequency and intensity directly affect agricultural security, ecosystem stability, and infrastructure resilience.

Scientists reveal mechanism of deep intraseasonal variability in western equatorial Pacific

Phys.org: Earth science - Fri, 10/24/2025 - 15:23
The deep ocean has long been viewed as a quiet realm, largely isolated from the dynamic processes that shape Earth's climate. However, new observations in the western equatorial Pacific have revealed robust intraseasonal variability at depths of 1,500–3,000 meters, with kinetic energy levels reaching up to 10 cm2s-2.

Leaked tritium reveals mechanism of radioactive cesium flow from Fukushima Daiichi to the ocean

Phys.org: Earth science - Fri, 10/24/2025 - 15:22
Researchers at University of Tsukuba have identified the source and the factors affecting the radioactive cesium (137Cs) flow to the port of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant via its drainage channels. Using tritium in groundwater that leaked from contaminated water storage tanks as a hydrological tracer, they estimated that ~50% of 137Cs comes from "roof drainage" of the rainwater falling on the reactor buildings. The research is published in the journal Water Research.

The giant Tupaasat rock avalanche in South Greenland

EOS - Fri, 10/24/2025 - 14:38

A new paper describes a rock avalanche in Greenland about 10,900 years BP that had a volume of over 1 billion cubic metres and that travelled almost 16 kilometres.

A fascinating paper (Pedersen et al. 2026) has just been published in the journal Geomorphology that describes a newly-discovered ancient rock avalanche in Greenland. This landslide, which is located in the Tupaasat Valley, is truly enormous. The authors estimate that it has a volume that exceeds 1 km3 (1 billion m3), with a runout distance of 15.8 kilometres and a vertical height difference of 1,440 metres.

The rear scar of the landslide is located at [60.4117, -44.2791]. It is really hard to capture this landslide on Google Earth, but fortunately the paper has been published under a creative commons licence. Here, therefore, is a map of the landslide by Pedersen et al. (2026):-

A) Geomorphological map of the Tupaasat rock avalanche deposits within the landslide outline together with the paleo-sea level line at 10 m a.s.l., and the proposed paleo-ice sheet extent.
B) Map showing the bathymetry data and the landslide outline. The bathymetry data is acquired from the Danish Geodata Agency and is not suitable for navigation C) Cross-section of Tupaasat rock avalanche with columns indicating the geomorphological features described in the results. The terrain slopes are presented below.
Images from Pedersen et al. (2026).

I have quickly annotated a Google Earth image of the site, showing the source and the track of the landslide. Note that the toe extends into the fjord, and thus is underwater, by a couple of kilometres:-

Annotated Google Earth image showing of the Tupaasat rock avalanche.

Landslides on this scale are hard to fathom. If this volume of rock was standing on a standard American football field (110 m x 49 m) it would form a column 185.5 km tall.

Pedersen et al. (2026) have dated the time of occurrence of this landslide. They conclude that it occurred about 10,900 years ago. This coincides remarkably well with the dated deglaciation (retreat of the icesheets) in this area. Thus, the authors suggest that the instability was probably associated with debuttressing of the glacier (i.e. the removal of the ice adjacent to the slope. They cannot rule out the possibility that final failure might have been triggered by an earthquake, though.

A further intriguing question is whether the event triggered a tsunami in the fjord. The distance that the landslide has moved suggests that it was very energetic. Given that it extended to the water (and some of the deposit is now within the lake) it is extremely likely that a displacement wave was triggered.

The latter point is very pertinent as there is increasing concern about the dangers of giant rock slope failures generating damaging tsunami events in fjords. For example, CNN published an article this week in the aftermath of the Tracy Arm landslide and tsunami that highlights the risk to cruise ships. It notes that:

Alaska’s foremost expert on these landslides knows why there hasn’t been a deadly landslide-turn-tsunami disaster, yet: sheer luck.

“It’s not because this isn’t a hazard,” said geologist Bretwood Higman, co-founder and executive director of nonprofit Ground Truth Alaska. “It’s because it just hasn’t happened to be above someone’s house or next to a cruise ship.”

An additional piece of context is the remarkable flooding that occurred in Alaska last weekend as Typhoon Halong tracked across parts of the state. This appears to have received far less attention than might have been anticipated, at least outside the US.

It is surely only a matter of time before we see a really large-scale accident as a result of a tsunami triggered by a rock slope failure. A vey serious scenario is that a large cruise ship is overwhelmed and sunk. The loss of life could be very high.

Reference

L.L. Pedersen et al. 2026. A giant Early Holocene tsunamigenic rock-ice avalanche in South Greenland preconditioned by glacial debuttressing. Geomorphology, 492, 110057,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2025.110057.

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2023. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Tiny Uranian Moon Likely Had a Massive Subsurface Ocean

EOS - Fri, 10/24/2025 - 13:25

Uranus’s tiny moon Ariel may have had a subsurface ocean that made up around 55% of its total volume. By mapping craters, crags, and ridges on the moon’s surface, planetary scientists modeled how thick Ariel’s crust was before it cracked under tidal stress and created the geologic features seen today. By subtracting the size of the crust and core, the researchers found that the Arielian ocean could have been about 170 kilometers thick as recently as 1 billion years ago.

“If Ariel had a subsurface ocean, it definitely does imply that other small icy moons could also have [had] subsurface oceans,” said Caleb Strom, who conducted this research as a planetary geologist fellow at the University of North Dakota in Grand Forks.

Maybe “it’s easier to make an ocean world than we thought,” he added.

An Unlikely Ocean World

Ariel is the second closest of the five large moons of Uranus. But large is a bit of a misnomer, as Ariel is only about 1,160 kilometers across, or about a third the size of Earth’s Moon.

When Voyager 2 flew through the Uranus system in 1986, scientists were surprised to see that Ariel’s icy surface was relatively young, was geologically complex, and showed some signs of cryovolcanism. Some features on the moon’s surface are similar to those seen on Europa, Enceladus, and Triton, three confirmed ocean worlds.

“We weren’t necessarily expecting it to be an ocean world.”

“What’s interesting about Ariel is that it’s unexpected,” Strom said. “We weren’t necessarily expecting it to be an ocean world.”

Later studies also found ammonia and carbon oxide compounds on Ariel’s surface, chemistry that often suggests the presence of subsurface liquid. The molecules disappear quickly unless they are frequently replenished.

But with Ariel being so small and unable to retain heat for very long, scientists thought that any subsurface ocean it may once have had was relatively thin and short-lived.

Strom and his colleagues didn’t initially set out to challenge this understanding of Ariel’s interior. They were interested in understanding the forces that could have created the moon’s geologic features.

To do this, the researchers first mapped the moon’s surface using images from the Voyager 2 flyby, cataloging ridges, fractures, and craters. They then modeled Ariel’s internal structure, giving it, from the top down, a brittle crust, a flexible crust, and an ocean all atop a solid core. They then simulated how that crust would deform under different levels of stress from tidal forces from other nearby Uranian moons and the planet itself. By varying the crust and ocean thickness and the strength of the tidal stress, the team sought to match the stress features in their models to the Voyager-derived geologic maps.

In 2023, the James Webb Space Telescope imaged Uranus and several of its major moons and rings. Credit: NASA, ESA, CSA, STScI; Image Processing: Joseph DePasquale (STScI)

The team’s models indicate that a crust less than 30 kilometers thick would have fractured under a moderate amount of tidal stress and created the geologic features seen today. The researchers suggest that to cause that stress, in the past 1–2 billion years (Ga), an orbital resonance with nearby moon Miranda stretched Ariel’s orbit about 4% from circular and fractured the surface.

“This is really a prediction about the crustal thickness” and the stress level it can withstand, Strom said. Then, with a core 740 kilometers across and a crust 30 kilometers thick, that would mean that Ariel’s subsurface ocean was 170 kilometers from top to bottom and made up about 55% of its total volume. The researchers published their results in Icarus in September.

Is Ariel Odd? Maybe Not

“The possible presence of an ocean in Ariel in the past [roughly] 1 Ga is certainly an exciting prospect,” said Richard Cartwright, an ocean world scientist at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (JHUAPL) in Laurel, Md. “These results track with other studies that suggest the surface geology of Ariel offers key clues in terms of recent activity” and the possibility that Ariel is, or was, an ocean world. Cartwright was not involved with the new research.

Strom cautioned that just because Ariel once had a substantial subsurface ocean doesn’t mean that it still does. The moon is very small and doesn’t retain heat very well, he said. Any ocean that remained would likely be much thinner and probably not a good place to search for life.

However, the fact that tiny Ariel may once have had such a large ocean may mean that ocean worlds are more common and easier to create than scientists once thought. Understanding the conditions that led to Ariel’s subsurface ocean could help scientists better understand how such worlds come about and how they evolve.

“Ariel’s case demonstrates that even comparatively sized moons can, under the right conditions, develop and sustain significant internal oceans.”

“Ariel’s case demonstrates that even comparatively sized moons can, under the right conditions, develop and sustain significant internal oceans,” said Chloe Beddingfield, a planetary scientist also at JHUAPL. “However, that doesn’t mean all similar bodies would have done so. Each moon’s potential for an ocean depends on its particular mix of heat sources, chemistry, and orbital evolution.”

An ocean composing 55% of a planet’s or moon’s total volume might seem pretty huge, but it also might be perfectly within normal range for ocean worlds, added Beddingfield, who was not involved with this research. “The estimated thickness of Ariel’s internal ocean…is striking, but not necessarily unexpected given the diversity of icy satellites.”

Too, Voyager 2 did not image all of Ariel’s surface, only the 35% that was illuminated during its flyby. A future long-term mission to the Uranus system could provide higher-resolution global maps of Ariel and other moons to help refine calculations of crustal thickness and determine the existence of subsurface oceans, Strom said.

Strom and his team plan to expand their stress test research to other moons of Uranus such as Miranda, Oberon, and Umbriel and possibly icy moons around other planets.

—Kimberly M. S. Cartier (@astrokimcartier.bsky.social), Staff Writer

Citation: Cartier, K. M. S. (2025), Tiny Uranian moon likely had a massive subsurface ocean, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250398. Published on 24 October 2025. Text © 2025. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

A medida que el Ártico se calienta, los suelos pierden nutrientes clave

EOS - Fri, 10/24/2025 - 13:22

This is an authorized translation of an Eos article. Esta es una traducción al español autorizada de un artículo de Eos.

Los suelos árticos y subárticos almacenan una proporción considerable del carbono de la Tierra. Sin embargo, el aumento de las temperaturas podría drenar el nitrógeno de estos suelos — un nutriente clave —. Según un nuevo estudio, la pérdida de nitrógeno podría reducir el crecimiento de las plantas, limitando la capacidad de los suelos para almacenar carbono y amplificando el calentamiento global.

Los suelos de latitudes altas almacenan grandes cantidades de carbono porque las bajas temperaturas retardan la actividad microbiana. Aunque las plantas producen materia orgánica a través de la fotosíntesis, los microorganismos no pueden consumirla lo suficientemente rápido, provocando su acumulación con el tiempo. Los científicos han estado preocupados de que un Ártico más cálido aceleraría la actividad microbiana, liberando el carbono almacenado a la atmósfera como dióxido de carbono (CO₂). Pero también esperaban que las temperaturas más cálidas estimularan el crecimiento de las plantas, lo que reabsorbería parte del carbono y compensaría parcialmente estas emisiones.

La nueva investigación muestra que este último escenario es muy improbable, ya que el calentamiento provoca que los suelos pierdan nitrógeno, una pérdida que podría inhibir el crecimiento de las plantas.

“No esperábamos ver una pérdida de nitrógeno.”

Los hallazgos provienen de un experimento de una década de duración realizado en un pastizal subártico cerca de Hveragerði, Islandia. En 2008, un potente terremoto alteró los flujos de agua geotérmica en la región, convirtiendo parcelas de suelo que antes eran normales en zonas calentadas naturalmente con gradientes de temperatura que oscilan entre 0.5 °C y 40 °C por encima de los niveles anteriores. El evento creó un laboratorio natural único para observar cómo responden los ecosistemas al calentamiento a largo plazo.

Usando isótopos estables de nitrógeno-15 para rastrear los flujos de nutrientes en el paisaje, los investigadores encontraron que, por cada grado Celsius de calentamiento, los suelos pierden entre 1.7 % y 2.6 % de su nitrógeno. Las mayores pérdidas ocurrieron durante el invierno y principios de la primavera, cuando los microbios permanecían activos pero las plantas estaban inactivas. Durante este tiempo, se liberaron compuestos nitrogenados como el amonio y el nitrato en el suelo, pero las plantas no podían absorberlos, se perdieron ya sea por lixiviación al agua subterránea o escapándose a la atmósfera como óxido nitroso, un gas de efecto invernadero casi 300 veces más potente que el CO₂.

Los resultados se publicaron en un artículo en Global Change Biology.

«No esperábamos ver una pérdida de nitrógeno», mencionó Sara Marañón, científica del suelo del Centro de Investigación Ecológica y Aplicaciones Forestales de España y primera autora del estudio. «Los mecanismos del suelo para almacenar nitrógeno se están deteriorando».

Un ecosistema menos fértil, más rápido

Los investigadores también encontraron que el calentamiento debilitó los mecanismos que ayudan a los suelos a retener el nitrógeno. En las parcelas más cálidas, la biomasa microbiana y la densidad de las raíces finas — ambas fundamentales para el almacenamiento de nitrógeno — eran mucho menores que en las parcelas más frías. Aunque los microbios eran menos abundantes, su metabolismo era más rápido, liberando más CO2 por unidad de biomasa. Mientras tanto, las plantas luchaban por adaptarse, quedando rezagadas tanto en su crecimiento como en la absorción de nutrientes.

«Las comunidades microbianas son capaces de adaptarse y alcanzar un nuevo equilibrio con tasas de actividad más rápidas», dijo Marañón. «Pero las plantas no pueden seguirles el ritmo»

“Este no es un mensaje muy optimista.”

El aumento del metabolismo microbiano resulta inicialmente en un mayor consumo del nitrógeno y carbono disponibles en el suelo. Sin embargo, después de 5 o 10 años, el sistema parece alcanzar un nuevo equilibrio, con niveles reducidos de materia orgánica y menor fertilidad. Ese cambio sugiere que el calentamiento de los suelos puede provocar una transición hacia un estado permanentemente menos fértil, haciendo más difícil la recuperación de la vegetación y conduciendo a una pérdida irreversible de carbono.

Tradicionalmente, los científicos han pensado que, dado que la materia orgánica se descompone más rápidamente en un clima más cálido, el nitrógeno que contiene estará más disponible, lo que conducirá a una mayor productividad, según Erik Verbruggen, ecólogo del suelo de la Universidad de Amberes, en Bélgica, que no participó en el estudio. «Este artículo demuestra que, en realidad, esto no está ocurriendo».

En cambio, el nitrógeno está siendo filtrado del suelo durante la primavera, lo que lo hace inaccesible para una mayor producción de biomasa. «Este no es un mensaje muy optimista», afirmó Verbruggen.

Una fuente subestimada de gases de efecto invernadero

Dado que las regiones árticas se están calentando más rápido que el promedio global, esta alteración del ciclo de nutrientes podría volverse más evidente pronto. La pérdida de nitrógeno y carbono de los suelos en regiones frías puede representar una fuente significativa y previamente subestimada de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, que los modelos climáticos actuales aún no han incorporado por completo.

Los investigadores regresaban periódicamente a los cálidos pastizales cercanos a Hveragerði, Islandia, para medir el nitrógeno. Crédito: Sara Marañón.

Los investigadores planean explorar las fases tempranas del calentamiento del suelo, trasplantando fragmentos de suelos normales hacia áreas calentadas, y también investigar cómo distintos tipos de suelo responden al calor. Marañón señaló que los suelos islandeses estudiados son de origen volcánico y muy ricos en minerales, a diferencia de los suelos orgánicos de turba comunes en otras regiones árticas.

“Los suelos árticos también incluyen el permafrost en lugares como el norte de Rusia y partes de Escandinavia, y ellos son los mayores reservorios de carbono en los suelos del mundo”, dice Verbruggen. Por otro lado, los suelos analizados en esta investigación eran suelos de pastizal someros. “No son necesariamente representativos de todos los suelos árticos.”

Aun así, Verbruggen añadió, los hallazgos del estudio resaltan el delicado equilibrio entre productividad y pérdida de nutrientes en estos sistemas.

Las abundantes reservas de carbono del suelo lo convierten en un riesgo importante si se gestiona inadecuadamente, dijo Marañón. «Pero también puede convertirse en un aliado potencial y compensar las emisiones de CO2».

—Javier Barbuzano (@javibar.bsky.social), Escritor de ciencia

This translation by Saúl A. Villafañe-Barajas (@villafanne) was made possible by a partnership with Planeteando and Geolatinas. Esta traducción fue posible gracias a una asociación con Planeteando y Geolatinas.

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