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Tiny crystals in Earth’s crust may have recorded meteorite and comet impacts as our planet traveled through the spiral arms of the Milky Way over more than 4 billion years, according to new research.

The study is one of the first to suggest that galactic-scale processes can affect Earth’s geology, and researchers think similar evidence might be found on other bodies in the solar system, including the Moon and Mars.

“This is something that could connect the Earth, the Moon, and Mars into the wider galactic surroundings.”

“This is so interesting and exciting—we are potentially seeing something that is not just unique to Earth,” explained geologist Chris Kirkland of Australia’s Curtin University, the first author of the new study published in Physical Review Research. “This is something that could connect the Earth, the Moon, and Mars into the wider galactic surroundings.”

Kirkland and his coauthor, University of Lincoln astrophysicist Phil Sutton, studied changes in oxygen isotopes in a database of tens of thousands of dated crystals of zircon—a silicate mineral with the chemical formula ZrSiO4 that is common in Earth’s crust. They compared their findings to maps of the Milky Way galaxy that show its neutral hydrogen, or H1.

H1, with one proton and one electron, is the most abundant element in the universe, and its density is particularly high in the arms of the Milky Way galaxy.

Because they are almost exactly the same size, uranium atoms sometimes replace the zirconium atoms in zircon. Uranium radioactively decays into lead over time, so geologists can study the levels of uranium and lead isotopes in zircon crystals to determine when the crystals formed, sometimes in the first phases of the evolution of Earth’s crust about 4.4 billion years ago.

“Zircon crystals are a geologist’s best friend…we can get a lot of information from a single zircon grain.”

“Zircon crystals are a geologist’s best friend,” Kirkland said. “They have an inbuilt clock, and they carry a chemical signature that tells us how they formed—so we can get a lot of information from a single zircon grain.”

Queen’s University geochemist Christopher Spencer, who was not involved in the study, said that the work was fascinating and provocative. “I think the study is a reminder that Earth does not evolve in isolation and that interdisciplinary thinking, however speculative at first, can open up new ways of framing questions about our planet’s history.”

Oxygen Isotope Ratios

The key to the latest research was in the ratios of isotopes—forms of the same chemical element that have different numbers of neutrons—in the oxygen atoms of zircon’s silicate group.

The relative levels of oxygen isotopes in samples of zircon crystals can tell geologists whether the crystals formed high in the crust, perhaps while interacting with water and sediments, or deeper within Earth’s mantle.

Kirkland said the latest study examined the distribution of the ratios of oxygen isotopes found in a dataset of zircon crystals sampled from around the world. The scientists evaluated the data’s “kurtosis,” or the measure of how flat or peaked a distribution is. A dataset with high kurtosis has a narrow distribution, with most values occurring in the middle and causing a sharp peak in the distribution curve. In contrast, a dataset with low kurtosis has a wide distribution with more high and low values, causing a wider distribution curve with a less pronounced peak.

The researchers determined that periods of high oxygen isotope kurtosis corresponded to times when our solar system was crossing the dense spiral arms of the Milky Way galaxy. Such crossings occurred roughly every 187 million years on average during our solar system’s 748-million-year orbit around the galactic center at a speed of about 240 kilometers per second.

In addition to H1, the spiral arms are filled with many more stars than the interstellar space between them. The gravity of those stars seems to have disturbed the Oort Cloud—the haze of billions of icy rock fragments that surrounds our solar system. That, in turn, caused more meteors and comets to strike Earth as it passed through the galactic arms, leading to the subsequent melting of the crust in many places, Kirkland said. “By looking at the variability of the [zircon] signal over time, we were able to get an indication of how different the magma production on the planet was at that time.”

Professor Chris Kirkland uses an ion microprobe to date zircon mineral grains. Credit: C. L. Kirkland

He warned that correlation does not mean causation but said that in this case there seemed to be no other plausible cause for the periodic kurtosis of the oxygen isotope ratios in zircons. “It is very important that we are able to see the frequency of [meteor and comet] impacts” on Earth, Kirkland said. “Rather than an internal process, we seem to be looking at an external process.”

Some other experts suggest the new study is notable for outlining the concept that galactic processes could have left geological traces, but it is not yet conclusive proof.

Earth scientist Craig Storey of the University of Portsmouth in the United Kingdom, who was not involved in the new study, said crustal melting did not necessarily prove an increase in meteorite or comet impacts. Instead, natural processes here on Earth, such as volcanic or tectonic movements, could have caused melting of the crust at several stages of our planet’s geological history.

He is also concerned that some of the proposed correlations in the study may not be correct. “It is an interesting idea, and there are potentially ways to test it, but I don’t think this is the way to test it,” Storey said.

—Tom Metcalfe (@HHAspasia) Science Writer

Citation: Metcalfe, T. (2025), Zircon crystals could reveal Earth’s path among the stars, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250379. Published on 10 October 2025. Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth

Magnetotelluric (MT) data, which contain measurements of electric and magnetic field variations at Earth’s surface, provide insights into the electrical resistivity of Earth’s crust and upper mantle. Changes in resistivity, or the ability to conduct an electrical current, can indicate the presence of geologic features such as igneous intrusions or sedimentary basins, meaning MT surveys can complement other kinds of geophysical surveys to help reveal Earth’s subsurface. In addition, such surveys can play an important role in improving understanding of the risks space weather poses to human infrastructure.

Montiel-Álvarez et al. present the first 3D electrical resistivity model of Britain, based on long-period MT data (using measurements gathered every second for 4–6 weeks at a time) from across the island. Their model, called BERM-2024, points to previously recognized as well as likely new tectonic and geological structures. The authors also model the effects of a recent solar storm on Earth’s geoelectric field, validating the usefulness of MT-based approaches for space weather impact forecasting.

The BERM-2024 electrical resistivity model is based on MT data from 69 sites in Britain, including both new and legacy datasets. Creating the final model involved processing the raw time series data and accounting for the “coastal effect” caused by the conductivity of ocean water when inverting the data—or calculating causes based on observations.

Sensitivity tests of the new model indicate it resolves features to depths of 200 kilometers (125 miles), including many known from other geophysical surveys and geological observations. It also reveals new anomalies, including highly conductive areas under Scotland’s Southern Uplands Terrane and a resistive anomaly under the island of Anglesey. More intriguing, a large, previously unknown conductive anomaly appears in their model between 85 and 140 kilometers (52–87 miles) beneath the West Midlands region.

The authors tested the utility of their resistivity model for estimating the electric field at Earth’s surface, which is key in forecasting the effects of geomagnetically induced currents caused by space weather. To do so, they obtained a time series of the horizontal electric field across Britain during a solar storm that occurred on 10–11 October 2024, which led to bright displays of aurora borealis across the Northern Hemisphere. They found good agreement between their modeled time series and those measured at observatories, indicating that electrical resistivity models are a tool that can provide accurate information for space weather impact planning. (Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JB031813, 2025)

—Nathaniel Scharping (@nathanielscharp), Science Writer

Citation: Scharping, N. (2025), New 3D model reveals geophysical structures beneath Britain, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250381. Published on 10 October 2025. Text © 2025. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

SummaryInitial stress exerts a crucial impact on the elastic properties and thus the wave reflection in the layered media. However, the stress effect on wave reflection characteristics in such media remain insufficiently understood. To address this issue, we develop a composite matrix reflectivity method incorporating initial overburden stress (CMRMS) by means of acoustoelasticity theory, enabling accurate modeling of seismic wave propagation in stressed layered media. The proposed method can better simulate multiple reflections, converted waves and transmission loss of seismic waves in layered media, compared to the classic stress-dependent reflection coefficient equation for a single interface. Moreover, our method can degenerate into the existing methods in the cases of no initial stress and single interface, which verifies its correctness. We further extended the CMRMS to elastic and viscoelastic non-welded interfaces using the linear-slip theory and standard linear solid model, respectively. The extended method is used to investigate the impacts of non-welded interface compliance, overburden stress, fluid viscosity and frequency on seismic reflection characteristics within layered model. It is shown that the stress effect magnitude on interface reflection significantly depends on the interface depth, due to cumulative transmission losses from overlying layers. Moreover, increasing either the compliance or the number of overlying non-welded interface significantly reduces the reflection amplitude at deeper interface. Our results show the potential of the proposed composite matrix reflectivity method to consider the joint effects of initial stress, multiple waves and transmission loss in both forward modelling and inverse applications.

Dry soils in northern Mexico may trigger episodes of simultaneous drought and heat wave hundreds of miles away in the southwestern United States, such as Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas, according to a new study. These "hot droughts" in the region increasingly persist through consecutive days and nights rather than easing up after sundown, the research also found, leaving no window for afflicted areas to recover.

An EPFL engineer has illustrated some of the complex ways in which climate change will affect hydropower facilities, taking the Gries dam in Valais Canton as a case study.

As climate change continues to reshape the intensity and behavior of hurricanes, meteorologists and researchers are examining whether the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, a decades-old classification system, still adequately communicates the full scope of hurricane hazards. While the scale remains a widely recognized tool, experts like Zachary Handlos, director of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at Georgia Tech, suggest that a complementary system could enhance public understanding of the broader risks hurricanes pose.

Since the 1980s, scientists have known fine roots (< 2 mm) are critical to ecosystem carbon cycling, with research long suggesting their contribution to soil carbon accrual may exceed that of aboveground plant parts like leaves. Yet more than 40 years later, a key knowledge gap remains: the role of multi-decadal root iterative dynamics (growth, turnover, decomposition) in soil carbon accumulation—especially for "absorptive roots," the finest, most metabolically active roots (typically the distal 2–3 root orders or < 0.5 mm in diameter).

Modelers have demonstrated that artificial intelligence (AI) models can produce climate simulations with more efficiency than physics-based models. However, many AI models are trained on past climate data, making it difficult for them to predict how climate might respond to future changes, such as further increases in the concentration of greenhouse gases.

Predicting tropical cyclones (TCs) accurately is crucial for disaster mitigation and public safety. Although the forecasting accuracy of TC tracks has improved substantially in recent decades, progress in the forecasting of TC intensity remains limited. In recent years, deep learning methods have shown great potential in TC intensity prediction; however, they still face challenges, including limited interpretability, cumbersome feature engineering, and unreliable real-time operational forecasts.

In Hawaii, most of the population relies on private septic tanks or cesspools to dispose of sewage and other wastewater. There are more than 88,000 cesspools in the state, with about 55,000 on the Big Island alone. These systems, as opposed to more strictly regulated municipal wastewater treatment units, have a higher risk of sewage leaking into the porous substrate.

A recent study published in Frontiers in Marine Science identifies sewage-contaminated submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) sites, pinpointing specific locations that stakeholders may want to prioritize for mitigation efforts.

Modeling and Mapping

Previous studies estimated that groundwater flows deliver 3 to 4 times more discharge to oceans than rivers do, making them significant pathways for transporting pollutants.

In response to pollution concerns from the local community, a team from Arizona State University, with the support of the Hawaiʻi Marine Education and Research Center, used airborne mapping to identify locations where SGD reached the ocean along the western coastline of the Big Island.

Sewage-contaminated water (colored blue in this photograph) enters the ocean from submarine groundwater discharge sites on the Kona coast of the Big Island. Credit: ASU Global Airborne Observatory

To precisely identify these freshwater-seawater interfaces, researchers built on previous studies that used thermal sensors to capture the temperature difference between the two bodies of water. Figuring out which of these discrete interface points were problematic “was very challenging,” said Kelly Hondula, a researcher at the Center for Global Discovery and Conservation Science and first author of the study.

The team identified more than 1,000 discharge points and collected samples from 47 locations. “We chose points where we could localize freshwater emerging from the land or points of high community interest,” explained Hondula.

In addition to aerial surveys, researchers analyzed the discharge points by monitoring their salinity gradients and measuring levels of Enterococcus, a group of bacteria that frequently serve as key fecal indicators in public health testing. They integrated these data into a statistical model that used upstream land cover and known sewage sites to predict the likelihood of sewage and bacterial contamination for each SGD site along the western Hawaiʻi coastline.

The techniques allowed scientists to identify regions of the built environment that are associated with contamination. Besides areas with septic systems and cesspools, they found a high correlation between sewage discharge and development within the first 500 meters of the coast.

“Sewage going into the ground comes out in the ocean, with often a worrying level of waste contamination.”

The geology of a discharge point also contributes to its risk of contamination. Discharge points around the island’s South Kona region, for instance, feature “some of the youngest and most porous volcanic substrate in the archipelago, with little soil development and a high degree of hydrologic connectivity between point sources of pollution and coastal waters,” the authors wrote. Although South Kona has relatively sparse development, increased land use will likely have a disproportionate effect on groundwater quality, they concluded.

“We were surprised to find such clear results: Sewage going into the ground comes out in the ocean, with often a worrying level of waste contamination,” said Hondula.

Mapping Mitigation

As communities continue to invest in coastal development, understanding the effect of sewage discharge and how to avoid it is becoming an increasingly pressing concern worldwide.

As such, the new study “contributes to the growing body of evidence correlating sewage-tainted groundwater discharge with coastal water quality, showing a strong linkage between wastewater and development in the nearshore area. That’s something that land managers and conservation scientists should really take into account,” said Henrietta Dulai, a geochemist at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa who was not involved in the study.

The state of Hawaii has recognized the particular risk posed by largely unregulated cesspools leaking sewage-contaminated groundwater to the ocean. In fact, there is a state mandate to eliminate cesspools by 2050, but the associated cost is slowing the process.

Many scientists say the costs of phasing out cesspools is far outweighed by the health benefits. “We need to consider the financial sides of replacing cesspools versus the benefit of preserving the water quality for the environment and the people,” said Tristan McKenzie, a researcher at the University of Gothenburg, Sweden, who was not involved in the study. “Studies like this highlight why we need to act now.”

—Anna Napolitano (@anna83nap; @anna83nap.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Napolitano, A. (2025), Pinpointing sewage seeps in Hawaii, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250376. Published on 9 October 2025. Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation

Modelers have demonstrated that artificial intelligence (AI) models can produce climate simulations with more efficiency than physics-based models. However, many AI models are trained on past climate data, making it difficult for them to predict how climate might respond to future changes, such as further increases in the concentration of greenhouse gases.

Clark et al. have taken another step toward using AI to model complex Earth systems by coupling an AI model of the atmosphere (called the Ai2 Climate Emulator, or ACE) with a physical model of the ocean (called a slab ocean model, or SOM) to produce a model they call ACE2-SOM. They trained ACE2-SOM on output of a 100-kilometer-resolution physics-based model from a range of climates.

In response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide, consistent with its target model, ACE2-SOM predicted well-known responses, such as surface temperature increasing more strongly over land than over ocean, and wet areas becoming wetter and dry areas becoming drier. When the researchers compared their results with those of a 400-kilometer-resolution version of the physics-based model they were emulating, they found that ACE2-SOM produced more accurate and cost-effective predictions: ACE2-SOM used 25 times less power while providing a resolution that was 4 times finer.

But ACE2-SOM struggled when the researchers asked it to predict what would happen if atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rose rapidly (suddenly quadrupling, e.g.). While the ocean surface temperature took the appropriate time to adjust, the atmosphere almost immediately shifted to the equilibrium climate under the new carbon dioxide concentration, even though physical laws would dictate a slower response.

To become fully competitive with physics-based models, AI climate models will need to become better able to model unusual situations, the authors write. The slab ocean model used in this study is also highly simplified. So to maintain their efficiency advantage while improving realism, AI models will also need to incorporate additional parts of the Earth system, such as ocean circulation and sea ice coverage, the researchers add. (Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JH000575, 2025)

—Saima May Sidik (@saimamay.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Sidik, S. M. (2025), A step toward AI modeling of the whole Earth system, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250362. Published on 9 October 2025. Text © 2025. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

This is an authorized translation of an Eos article. Esta es una traducción al español autorizada de un artículo de Eos.

El Océano Austral existe en un estado de equilibrio precario. El mar está estratificado, con agua fría en la superficie y agua relativamente cálida debajo. Es una situación inherentemente inestable — en igualdad de condiciones, el agua cálida debería subir a la superficie. Pero es más salada y, por lo tanto, más densa, por lo que permanece en el fondo. La capa superior fría, en cambio, se mantiene más dulce con las nevadas y el hielo marino, que se forma cerca de la costa y luego se desplaza hacia el norte entrando al océano abierto antes de derretirse.

Durante los últimos diez años, la capa de hielo marino ha ido disminuyendo a medida que las temperaturas oceánicas se han calentado. El rápido deshielo ha aportado aún más agua dulce a la superficie, lo que debería reforzar la capacidad aislante de la capa de agua fría y permitir que el hielo marino vuelva a expandirse.

Sin embargo, ese ciclo de retroalimentación parece haberse interrumpido. Nuevos datos satelitales han revelado que el océano alrededor de la Antártida, contra todo pronóstico, se está volviendo más salado.

El estudio fue publicado en Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS).

Medir donde es difícil medir

El hielo marino, los mares agitados y la oscuridad permanente hacen que resulte prácticamente imposible monitorear la salinidad del Océano Austral desde un barco durante el invierno. Solo en años recientes ha sido posible medir la salinidad del océano Austral desde el espacio. Los satélites pueden observar la temperatura de brillo de la superficie oceánica, una medida de la radiación emitida en la superficie del océano. Cuanto más dulce es el agua, mayor es la temperatura de brillo.

La técnica funciona bien en aguas más cálidas, pero en aguas frías la temperatura de brillo no varía tanto como cambia la salinidad. Dado que estos cambios ya son, en general, bastante sutiles, los satélites no habían podido detectarlos con precisión en las regiones polares. En estas zonas, el hielo marino también tiende a nublar la señal.

Los avances recientes en tecnología satelital, sin embargo, han mejorado notablemente la sensibilidad de las lecturas de brillo, y los nuevos algoritmos permiten a los investigadores eliminar el ruido generado por el hielo marino.

El oceanógrafo Alessandro Silvano, de la Universidad de Southampton, y sus colegas analizaron los últimos 12 años de registros de salinidad del satélite de la Agencia Espacial Europea para la medición de la humedad del suelo y la salinidad oceánica (SMOS, por sus siglas en inglés). Para Alex Haumann, científico climático de la Universidad Ludwig-Maximilians de Múnich, Alemania, e integrante del equipo, contar con estos datos de amplio alcance — que cubren todo el Océano Austral con una resolución de 25 kilómetros cuadrados — representa un cambio revolucionario. “Debido a la gran cobertura y la serie temporal que puedes obtener, es super valioso. Es realmente una nueva herramienta para monitorear este sistema”, afirmó.

Con el calentamiento, esperamos que fluya más agua dulce hacia el océano. Por lo tanto, es bastante impactante que aparezca esta agua más salada en la superficie”

Sin embargo, cuando el equipo observó que la salinidad había aumentado durante ese periodo, no pudieron evitar cuestionar la tecnología. Para verificar lo que estaban observando, recurrieron a las boyas Argo, boyas automatizadas que toman muestras de agua a una profundidad de hasta 2000 metros. Una red de boyas flota en los mares del mundo, incluido el océano Austral.

Para sorpresa y consternación de Silvano, las boyas corroboraron los datos satelitales. “Muestran la misma señal”, dijo. “Pensamos, de acuerdo, esto es real. No es un error.”

Al comparar los datos sobre la salinidad con las tendencias del hielo marino, el equipo observó un patrón inquietante. “Existe una correlación muy alta entre la salinidad superficial y la capa de hielo marino”, explicó Haumann. “Cuando la salinidad es alta, el hielo marino es escaso. Cuando la salinidad es baja, hay más hielo marino.”

“Con el calentamiento, esperamos que fluya más agua dulce hacia el océano. Por lo tanto, es bastante sorprendente que aparezca esta agua más salada en la superficie”, afirmó Inga Smith, física especializada en hielo marino de la Universidad de Otago en Nueva Zelanda, que no participó en la investigación.

Un régimen cambiante

La explicación más plausible para el aumento de la salinidad, según Silvano, es que las delicadas capas de agua antártica se han alterado y el agua más cálida y salada que se encuentra debajo está ahora saliendo a la superficie, lo que hace que esta sea demasiado cálida para que se forme hielo marino.

Aunque subrayó que es demasiado pronto para determinar la causa de la surgencia, Silvano planteó que podría estar provocado por el fortalecimiento de los vientos del oeste alrededor de la Antártida, como consecuencia del cambio climático. Afirmó que teme que el mecanismo natural de control de daños de la Antártida, en el que el deshielo libera agua dulce, que a su vez atrapa el agua cálida de las profundidades y finalmente permite que se forme más hielo marino, se haya roto de forma irreversible.

El debilitamiento de la estratificación oceánica amenaza, en cambio, con crear una nueva y peligrosa retroalimentación en la que las potentes corrientes de convección traen aún más agua cálida y salada de las profundidades, lo que conduce a una pérdida descontrolada de hielo.

“Creemos que esto podría ser un cambio de régimen, un cambio en el sistema oceánico y glacial, en el que hay menos hielo de forma permanente”, señaló Silvano.

“Tenemos que encontrar formas de monitorear el sistema, porque está cambiando muy rápidamente”

Wolfgang Rack, glaciólogo de la Universidad de Canterbury en Nueva Zelanda, quien no participó en la investigación, dijo que el registro satelital aún no es lo suficientemente largo como para demostrar si el aumento en la salinidad es una anomalía o un nuevo estado normal, no obstante, añadió: “Es bastante improbable que se trate de una simple anomalía, porque la señal es muy significativa.”

Zhaomin Wang, oceanógrafo de la Universidad de Hohai en Nankín, China, que no participó en la investigación, afirmó que el estudio era un “resultado muy sólido,” pero advirtió que aún es demasiado pronto para atribuir de forma concluyente el retroceso del hielo marino a la surgencia. “Es bastante difícil desentrañar la causa y el efecto entre el cambio del hielo marino antártico y el cambio de la salinidad de la superficie”, dijo, “porque es un sistema acoplado, lo que dificulta determinar qué proceso inicia los cambios”.

Para Haumann, los hallazgos muestran lo crucial que es la nueva tecnología para rastrear los cambios en el océano Austral. “Tenemos que encontrar formas de monitorear el sistema, porque está cambiando muy rápidamente”, dijo. “Esta es una de las regiones más distantes de la Tierra, pero una de las más críticas para la sociedad. La mayor parte del exceso de calor que tenemos en el sistema climático va a parar a esta región, y esto nos ha ayudado a mantener el planeta a una tasa de calentamiento relativamente moderada”.

“Ahora no sabemos realmente qué va a pasar con eso», dijo.”

—Bill Morris, Escritor científico

This translation by Saúl A. Villafañe-Barajas (@villafanne) was made possible by a partnership with Planeteando and Geolatinas. Esta traducción fue posible gracias a una asociación con Planeteando y Geolatinas.

Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

An advanced filtration system inspired by nature that can recover untapped critical resources such as copper and lithium from mining waste is being developed by scientists from The Australian National University (ANU) in collaboration with Rio Tinto.

Author(s): Chinmoy Bhattacharjee

I investigate the formation of multiscale magnetic-field structures in a rotating, self-gravitating dusty plasma comprising electrons, ions, and charged dust grains. By incorporating the gravitomagnetic field, arising from mass currents in rotating astrophysical objects, into a three-component fluid…

[Phys. Rev. E 112, 045206] Published Thu Oct 09, 2025

Author(s): Johannes J. van de Wetering, Justin R. Angus, W. Farmer, V. Geyko, D. Ghosh, D. Grote, C. Weber, and G. Zimmerman

Anomalies observed in the neutron spectral shift of high-yield shots at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) suggest the presence of suprathermal ions [E. P. Hartouni et al., Nat. Phys. 19, 72 (2023)], implying that kinetic effects play a significant role in burning inertial confinement fusion (ICF…

[Phys. Rev. E 112, 045207] Published Thu Oct 09, 2025

Melting ice sheets in North America played a far greater role in driving global sea-level rise at the end of the last ice age than scientists had thought, according to a Tulane University-led study published in Nature Geoscience.

The tribunal has concluded that a major leak in a water main, which released 40 million liters of water, triggered the failure

On 14 January 2025, the McCrae landslide occurred on the Mornington Peninsula in Australia. The site is located at [-38.34631, 144.93500]. I posted about this event at the time, noting that local residents had observed large volumes of water bubbling out of the ground in the period leading up to the failure. The landslide caused property damage and it resulted in serious injuries to one person.

In the aftermath of the landslide, the Victorian Government established a formal Independent Board of Inquiry into the events – a rare response so a landslide of this type. That tribunal has now published its conclusions in a report that is available online. It contains 30 recommendations some of which are specific to this site, whilst others cover landslide management and response more generally. These have widespread application, and it is worth a read.

The Report includes this image of the aftermath of the McCrae landslide:-

The 14 January 2025 McCrae landslide. Image from the Board of Inquiry report.

The report is admirably definitive about the causes of the landslide. It notes that there were previous periods of movement on the slope, but that the events of 14 January 2025 started with movement that was observed on 5 January 2925. It states that:

“Water was the trigger of the 5 January 2025 landslide and the McCrae Landslide. The source of that water was the burst water main at Bayview Road.”

The Board of Inquiry has calculated that the burst water main released about 40 million litres of water. The leak started at least 150 days before the landslide occurred, and there were numerous reports made to the water authority that there were problems at the site. However, the leak was not detected and repaired.

As I noted above, some of the recommendations pertain to landslide management more generally. One (Recommendation 7) highlights the needs for proper protocols to respond to landslide incidents (this is a widespread problem). Others (Recommendations 18 and 21) highlight the need for better training and education with regard to landslides, whilst there is also a focus on a better understanding and identification of landslide risk (Recommendations 20 and 23), and clarity about responsibility for landslide management (Recommendations 29 and 30).

News reports in Australia indicate that the Victorian Government has accepted all the findings of the McCrae landslide inquiry. Plans are now in place to ensure that the issues at the site are addressed and that the householders who have suffered such heavy losses are treated appropriately.

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2023. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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AbstractThe low-velocity layer confined by surrounding rocks deep in the subsurface acts as a seismic waveguide. The compressional (P-) and shear (S-) waves propagate in the waveguide are reflected on the top and bottom interface, constructively interfered with to formulate the deep-guided wave. Deep-guided wave has high-frequency contents and notable dispersive features. The dispersion represents the kinematics information and can be used to image the low-velocity structures. The Earth media not only shows elasticity but also attenuates seismic waves. This article presents a theoretical study of deep-guided wave propagation and dispersion analysis in viscoelastic media. We utilize the Thomson-Haskell propagator matrix method to theoretically calculate the phase velocity dispersion and attenuation curves of the deep-guided wave in viscoelastic media. We apply the staggered-grid finite-difference scheme to numerically simulate the elastic wavefield propagation in the shale layer for validation. We have conducted a sensitivity analysis of the dispersion and attenuation curves of the deep-guided wave with respect to different media parameters. The theoretical calculation of dispersion and attenuation curves of deep-guided wave opens the doors for the simultaneous inversion of S-wave velocity and quality factor of the low-velocity layer in the future. Deep-guided waves hold the potential for high-resolution imaging of hydrocarbon reservoirs, geothermal reservoirs, coal seams, saline aquifers, and fault zones.

Off the coast of Antarctica, the sea ice retreated toward the southernmost continent and, like a bottle cap taken off a soda bottle, that reduced pressure slowed down a process of critical carbon dioxide capture, dramatically accelerating the warming of the planet.

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Meteorologist and atmospheric scientist Neil Jacobs was confirmed as the new leader of NOAA on Tuesday evening.

Jacobs has a PhD in atmospheric science and worked in weather monitoring before joining NOAA in 2018.

But Jacobs is perhaps most well-known for his role in “Sharpiegate.” In 2019, during his first term, President Trump claimed that Alabama was in the path of Hurricane Dorian. After the claim met pushback, the president held a press conference and showed members of the media a map of the hurricane’s path that had been altered with a Sharpie, and NOAA issued a statement backing Trump’s claim.

President Trump displayed a map that altered the projected path of Hurricane Dorian with Sharpie. (The inked-in addition extends the white “Potential track area” and includes the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeastern Alabama.) Credit: The White House

At the time, Jacobs was the acting NOAA administrator, and had approved the unsigned statement. A National Academy of Public Administration report later found that his involvement with the statement violated NOAA’s scientific integrity policy.

At Jacobs’ confirmation hearing in July, he said that, if a similar situation arose in the future, he would handle it differently. He also said he supported proposed cuts to NOAA’s budget, and that his top priorities included staffing the National Weather Service office, reducing the seafood trade deficit, and “return[ing] the United States to the world’s leader in global weather forecast modeling capability.”

 

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•  4 takeaways from Trump NOAA nominee’s confirmation hearing
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 •  We Watched Neil Jacobs’ Confirmation Hearing for NOAA Administrator and Are Concerned About What We Heard
 •  Get Involved: AGU Science Policy Action Center

Jacobs made no mention of climate change in his opening statement. When asked whether he agreed that human activities are the dominant cause of observed warming over the last century, he noted “that natural signals are mixed in there” but that “human influence is certainly there” too.

The Senate voted 51-46 to confirm Jacobs, in a session during which they also confirmed a cluster of attorneys and ambassadors (including former NFL star Herschel Walker as ambassador to the Bahamas).

Carlos Martinez, a senior climate scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, expressed concern in a statement published before Jacobs’ confirmation hearing.

“Despite his relevant expertise and career experience, Dr. Jacobs has already demonstrated he’s willing to undermine science and his employees for political purposes as he did during the infamous ‘Sharpiegate’ scandal,” Martinez wrote.

Bluesky users reacted to the news. Credit: Michael Battalio @battalio.com via Bluesky‬

Others were more cautiously optimistic, noting his experience as a scientist. “It could be worse,” noted one Redditor. “He’s an actual atmospheric scientist and a known quantity.”

“I’m hopeful that he’s learned how to fight within the political system — because he is going to have to fight,” former NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad told Bloomberg in August.

—Emily Gardner (@emfurd.bsky.social), Associate Editor

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