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A new global map uses a fleet of satellites to catch methane leaks from the energy sector

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 12/16/2025 - 15:35
When it comes to global warming and greenhouse gases, methane is one of the bad guys. It's the second most important contributor to climate change after carbon dioxide. However, quantifying the exact amount being released has been a matter of guesswork. But now the first-ever global map of methane leaks from industrial sites is giving us detailed information on where this greenhouse gas is escaping, how much is escaping, and how often it occurs.

Fungal Spores in Wildfire Smoke Could Cause Lung Disease

EOS - Tue, 12/16/2025 - 13:33

Extreme wildfire events are becoming more frequent globally, a pattern that carries a risk for human health. Inhaling smoke from fires can send small bits of particulate matter into airways, aggravating asthma and decreasing lung function. But another, far less understood danger is hitching a smokey ride alongside these aerosols: fungi.

Researchers are increasingly recognizing how wildfire smoke can scatter microorganisms like fungi into the air. This phenomenon is part of a budding field called pyroaerobiology, explained Leda Kobziar, a wildland fire scientist at the University of Idaho in Moscow who has been studying the relationship between airborne spores and wildfire smoke since 2018.

New research from Kobziar’s team has confirmed that smoke-borne fungal spores can cause lung disease in mice. Her team took smoke samples from wildfires, isolated the fungal species within them, and exposed mice to these samples. Many of the mice soon showed symptoms of lung disease. The team will present its findings on 16 December at AGU’s Annual Meeting 2025 in New Orleans.

Catching Fire

“It was really an unknown that there were living microorganisms in wildland fire smoke. I think most people assumed that it was sterile because it comes from a hot fire.”

Studying the living side of smoke is a relatively new practice. “It was really an unknown that there were living microorganisms in wildland fire smoke. I think most people assumed that it was sterile because it comes from a hot fire,” said Phinehas Lampman, a former wildland firefighter, coauthor on the study, and wildland fire scientist at the University of Idaho.

The first study exploring the problem was published in 2004 by then–high school student Sarah Mims and her father, who used a smoke detector attached to a kite to collect fungal samples and correlate them with smokey days.

While there are more pyroaerobiologists today than there were 20 years ago, there are still many unanswered questions about what, how, and to what effect fungal spores travel with smoke.

For the new study, Kobziar, Lampman, and their team developed drone-based sampling systems to collect fungal samples and record conditions like temperature and humidity in wildfire smoke. Over a period of 4 years, the team conducted more than 100 drone flights into grassland and conifer forest fires across nine different areas, including sites in Utah, California, Kansas, and Florida.

A majority of the sampling was done at prescribed burns intentionally set by firefighters to reduce wildfire hazard. The controlled nature of prescribed burns allowed the researchers to get up close to fires and better maneuver their drones for sampling.

The team found that wildfire smoke from the prescribed burns contained spore concentrations of up to 400,000 spores per cubic meter, 4 times higher than the threshold that has been shown to decrease lung function.

To find out whether the fungal species present in smoke pose a health risk, the team used spores from the smoke samples to grow and isolate fungal colonies. They found 110 unique fungal taxa, 9 of which were identified to be potential human pathogens.

The researchers then exposed mice to these isolated samples. Over the course of a few weeks, the animals developed symptoms of lung disease in response to three different fungal taxa, suggesting that some fungi in wildfire smoke have the potential to negatively affect human health as well.

Exploring Health Impacts of Fungi in Smoke

Prescribed burns typically burn the same biomass as wildfires, so the composition of fungi in the smoke is likely similar. “But wildfires have a very different size footprint and typically generate a lot more power,” Kobziar said, explaining that large natural fires have the potential to generate much more advection of air and carry more diverse microbes.

Clouds of wildfire smoke with large distributions can act as vectors and scatter potentially dangerous fungi into new areas, said coauthor Borna Mehrad, a pulmonologist at the University of Florida in Gainesville.

“As fires become more frequent, this will become a progressively bigger issue. It’s something that we as physicians hadn’t even considered.”

“As fires become more frequent, this will become a progressively bigger issue,” he said. “It’s something that we as physicians hadn’t even considered.”

Despite the concerning finding, it’s important to note that not all fungi dispersed by wildfire smoke are a concern for human health, said Jennifer Head, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor who was not involved in the new research. “The species of fungus matters a lot in terms of what is the risk posed to human health.” She stressed the need for future research to characterize which fires, and where, are most concerning as vectors for dangerous fungi.

Looking forward, the team seeks to differentiate the various causes of lung disease and uncover what proportion of negative health effects are caused by smoke-borne fungi. The team hopes their findings could help protect people on the frontlines of major burns, like wildland firefighters.

“This is really just the opening of the box of discovery,” Kobziar said.

—Alonso Daboub (@AlonsoDaboub), Science Writer

Citation: Daboub, A. (2025), Fungal spores in wildfire smoke could cause lung disease, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250470. Published on 16 December 2025. Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Credible or Counterfeit: How Paleomagnetism Can Help Archaeologists Find Frauds

EOS - Tue, 12/16/2025 - 13:32

During the ninth century BCE, King Mesha reigned over Moab, a kingdom located in what is now Jordan. Details of how King Omri of Israel ruled the Moabites, Mesha’s subsequent rebellion, and numerous construction projects Mesha undertook as monarch were recorded on a slab of stone around 840 BCE.

The Moabite Stone, found in 1868 in modern-day Dhiban, Jordan, and now on display at the Louvre Museum in Paris, tells a story seemingly contemporaneous with one from the biblical Book of Kings, but from a different perspective. Artifacts that illuminate biblical times hold great importance for archaeologists, museums, and collectors—so much that forgeries fetch great sums.

Artifacts from the biblical era are so valuable that in one infamous example, an entire class of reproductions, the Moabite forgeries, was created soon after the discovery of the Moabite Stone. The Moabite forgeries consist of clay vessels, figurines, and other items crafted in the 19th century. Some are inscribed with Phoenician script selected from the real Moabite Stone. The inscriptions on the Moabitica, as the forgeries are called, translate to nonsense, and the clay used to fashion the frauds came not from Jordan but from clays around Jerusalem.

This photograph of Moabitica pottery, a known forgery, features symbols written in Phoenician that translate to nonsense. This particular piece has been sampled for future paleomagnetic analysis. Credit: Published with the permission of the Institute of Archaeology of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem; photo by Mimi Lavi, Conservation Lab. Eos thanks Daphna Tsoran, Curator of the Collection Room at the Institute of Archaeology of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, for permission to access this object.

The Moabite forgeries and other fakes can be used to validate ways to authenticate archaeological finds. In a pair of studies that will be presented at AGU’s Annual Meeting 2025, Scripps Institution of Oceanography postdoctoral scholar Yoav Vaknin will explore ways to verify archaeological finds using something that’s hard to imitate—Earth’s paleomagnetic field.

A Record in Clay

Earth’s magnetic field, which has both a direction and a strength, changes over time. North and south swap poles every so often. The intensity of the field—how strong it is at a particular location or at a particular time—also rises and falls.

“You can use these changes as a dating tool for archaeology,” explained Vaknin. “But first, you need to know how it changed over time.” To that end, Vaknin and colleagues had previously conducted a study compiling paleointensity measurements of the magnetic field for well-dated antiquities at the time they were produced, painstakingly reconstructing how the intensity changed in and around the Levantine region.

“We can use this reconstruction of the field to date [an] object.” This technique is also how forgeries can be detected.

“Artifacts are known to be really good magnetic records in part because they’re fired to really high temperatures,” said Courtney Sprain, a paleomagnetist at the University of Florida who was not involved in this study. In the kilns and ovens that harden clay, temperatures can reach 1,200°C (2,192°F). At these temperatures, chemical reactions cause new minerals to form, including iron-rich magnetite that locks in the status of Earth’s magnetic field—both direction and intensity—at around 580°C (1,076°F). Because pots don’t remain in place after they’ve been fired, the direction isn’t especially useful. But the magnetic field’s intensity is.

A marked increase in magnetic field intensity, more than twice that of today’s field, took place in the Levant from about 1050 to 700 BCE. Called the Levantine Iron Age anomaly, it has been documented across the region, recorded in artifacts and rocks from Cyprus, Israel, Jordan, Syria, and other locales.

Because the paleointensity timeline has been established for the region, “if we have materials that aren’t well dated, we can use this reconstruction of the field to date [an] object,” Vaknin said. This technique is also how forgeries can be detected.

Real or Fake

The Iron Age overlaps with much of the biblical period, Vaknin said. This is the time when many of the Bible’s stories—like those of King Mesha and King Omri—took place.

This time is an important part of human history, so people want these artifacts. As a result of this demand, Vaknin said, “they’re worth a lot of money.”

If an artifact comes to or from an antiquities market, private collection, or museum without information about the archaeological dig where it was excavated, “we don’t know how it got there,” said Vaknin. “There isn’t a method that’s really 100% secure to say if something is authentic.”

Researchers often disagree in their assessments of authenticity, with debates spilling into the academic literature about whether important items are legitimate or mere imitations.

If the artifact looks like it came from this time but has a magnetic field of today, “then it’s clearly fake.”

Measuring the paleomagnetic intensity of a disputed artifact can help archaeologists determine whether the artifact was made recently or during a time with a distinctly different paleomagnetic field than today’s. For instance, in Vaknin’s work, he demonstrates that forgeries were clearly fired at a time with today’s magnetic field intensity—not at the time of the Levantine Iron Age anomaly. If the artifact looks like it came from an earlier time but has a magnetic field of today, “then it’s clearly fake,” Vaknin said.

With this proof of concept, Vaknin and his colleagues have begun to look at artifacts of unknown authenticity that are under vigorous debate.

One limitation of the method is that it works only for authenticating artifacts from times when the paleomagnetic field was very different from the modern field, Vaknin cautioned. He and his colleagues are addressing that limitation by combining novel modeling and experiments related to how the magnetization of an item of interest can detectably change at low temperatures—the topic of another AGU25 presentation.

“This is one of the really cool examples of where [paleomagnetic] data can help with the study of archeology in general,” said Sprain regarding Vaknin’s work on using paleointensity. “Any artifacts that were from this area [and] from that time period, they have to have this strong magnetic signal.”

—Alka Tripathy-Lang (@dralkatrip.bsky.social ), Science Writer

Citation: Tripathy-Lang, A. (2025), Credible or counterfeit: How paleomagnetism can help archaeologists find frauds, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250449. Published on 16 December 2025. Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

The extraordinary scale of the November 2025 landslide disaster in Sumatra

EOS - Tue, 12/16/2025 - 08:06

The Landslide Blog is written by Dave Petley, who is widely recognized as a world leader in the study and management of landslides.

Yesterday, I posted about the landslide disaster that struck Malalak in Sumatra at the end of November 2025. Unfortunately, that is just a tiny component of the catastrophe that has occurred in this part of Indonesia.

The BGS has used imagery released under the Disaster Charter to map landslides triggered by this event in Sumatra – their map shows a lower estimate of 4,326 landslides, but this is a massive underestimate:-

British Geological Survey map of landslides triggered by the November 2025 rains in Sumatra.

This is a dramatic image, and the BGS have done a great job to compile this map, but it covers just a small part of the affected area (Malalak is not in this part of Sumatra), and the mapping does not capture all of the landslides. For example, the southern banks of Takengon Lake, in the centre of the image, has no mapped landslides. However, this is how that area looked on the 30 November 2025 Planet Labs PlanetScope satellite image (the centre marker is at [4.57347, 96.87513]:-

Landslides on the southern side of Lake Takengon in Sumatra triggered by the November 2025 rains. Image copyright Planet Labs, used with permission, collected on 30 November 2025.

This is a classic situation that I have described repeatedly in recent years – intense rainfall triggering hundreds of thousands of shallow landslides, which then form channelised debris flows. Take a look at the area on the immediate banks of the lake. This is this area as of 28 October 2025 and on 29 November 2025:-

Planet Labs images from 28 October 2025 and on 29 November 2025 (https://www.planet.com/).

Note the devastation that the channelised flows have inflicted on the communities. This pattern is replicated over a massive area of Sumatra. I wonder if this is the largest landslide event on record in terms of the number of individual failures, surpassing even Cyclone Gabrielle in New Zealand.

Loyal reader Alasdair MacKenzie kindly highlighted that there is some footage of the debris flows at Malalak on social media:-

Acknowledgement

Thanks as always to Planet Labs (2025) for their amazing imagery.

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2023. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Climate whiplash by 2064: Study projects extreme swings in rainfall and drought for Asia

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 12/16/2025 - 00:50
A climate study led by The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST), in collaboration with an international research team, reveals that under a high-emission scenario, the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoons region will undergo extreme weather events starting in 2064. Asia and broader tropical regions will face frequent "subseasonal whiplash" events, characterized by extreme downpours and dry spells alternating every 30 to 90 days which trigger climate disruptions with catastrophic impacts on food production, water management, and clean energy systems.

The role of along-strike variations in interface rheology on subduction dynamics: constraints from 3D numerical models

Geophysical Journal International - Tue, 12/16/2025 - 00:00
SummaryThe strength of the subduction interface plays a major role in controlling subduction dynamics on both local and global scales. While previous studies have primarily examined interface strength in two-dimensional models, natural subduction zones are inherently three-dimensional, with interface strength varying along-strike due to spatial differences in factors such as sediment input. Here, we use the geodynamic code ASPECT to conduct fully dynamic 3D subduction models in which interface strength varies along-strike. We find that the interaction between strong and weak segments of the interface leads to a narrower range of convergence velocities while broadening the range of viable interface stresses compared to 2D or homogeneous 3D models. Stronger segments, when adjacent to weaker ones, exhibit increased convergence velocities. This promotes higher interface stresses and facilitates the subduction of otherwise stagnant strong segments. We find that the interface viscosity of the strong segment controls the baseline stress, whereas the viscosity contrast along-strike controls the magnitude of amplification of the stress due to velocity increases. The elevated interface stresses at strong segments also generate greater compressional forces in the overriding plate than expected from 2D models. Combined with along-strike variations in convergence velocity, this results in trench migration, with stronger segments displaying more advanced trench positions relative to weaker segments. Possible natural analogs include the Bolivian Orocline in the central Andes and the Lesser Antilles, both of which show enhanced overriding plate compression and trench advance in areas of reduced sediment supply.

Data Assimilation in Machine-Learned Reduced-order Model of Chaotic Earthquake Sequences

Geophysical Journal International - Tue, 12/16/2025 - 00:00
SummaryRealistic models of earthquake sequences can be simulated by assuming faults governed by rate-and-state friction embedded in an elastic medium. Exploring the possibility of using such models for earthquake forecasting is challenging due to the difficulty of integrating Partial Differential Equation (PDE) models with sparse, low-resolution observational data. This paper presents a machine-learning-based reduced-order model (ROM) for earthquake sequences that addresses this limitation. The proposed ROM captures the slow/fast chaotic dynamics of earthquake sequences using a low-dimensional representation, enabling computational efficiency and robustness to high-frequency noise in observational data. The ROM’s efficiency facilitates effective data assimilation using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), even with low-resolution, noisy observations. Results demonstrate the ROM’s ability to replicate key scaling properties of the sequence -namely the magnitude-frequency, moment-duration, and moment-area relationships- and to estimate the distributions of fault slip rate and state variable, enabling predictions of large events in time and space with uncertainty quantification. These findings underscore the ROM’s potential for forecasting and for addressing challenges in inverse problems for nonlinear geophysical systems.

2025's extreme weather had the jet stream's fingerprints all over it, from flash floods to hurricanes

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 12/15/2025 - 22:50
The summer of 2025 brought unprecedented flash flooding across the U.S., with the central and eastern regions hit particularly hard. These storms claimed hundreds of lives across Texas, Kentucky and several other states and caused widespread destruction.

Iron minerals' hidden chemistry explains how soils trap carbon

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 12/15/2025 - 20:08
While scientists have long known that iron oxide minerals help lock away enormous amounts of carbon—sequestering it from the atmosphere—a new Northwestern University study now reveals exactly why these minerals are such powerful carbon traps.

Ionospheric and radiophysical effects of the polar region according to the data of the research vessel Professor Molchanov arctic expedition

Publication date: Available online 9 December 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): A.I. Sapunova, I.A. Ryakhovsky, Y.V. Poklad, B.G. Gavrilov, V.S. Lobanova, V.M. Ermak, E.N. Kozakova

IONONET: A EUROPEAN NETWORK OF OBLIQUE IONOSONDES

Publication date: Available online 9 December 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Achille Zirizzotti, Umberto Sciacca, Enrico Zuccheretti, Carlo Scotto, Loredana Perrone, James Arokiasamy Baskaradas

Maritime Dynamic Precise Positioning in Southern High-Latitude Regions

Publication date: Available online 9 December 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Yangyang Liu, Ju Hong, Rui Tu, Shengli Wang

Experimental Assessment of Wood as a Lightweight Proton-Radiation Shield for Spacecraft Structures

Publication date: Available online 9 December 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Woo-Min Cho, Hyun-Ung Oh

Analysis of Helium Monte Carlo data for the ISS-CREAM Instrument

Publication date: Available online 8 December 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): A. Bagga, S. Aggarwal, Y. Amare, D. Angelaszek, D.P. Bowman, Y.C. Chen, G.H. Choi, M. Copley, L. Derome, Z.M. Dorris, L. Eraud, J.H. Han, A. Haque, H.G. Huh, S. Jeong, S.C. Kang, H.J. Kim, K.C. Kim, M.H. Kim, J. Lee

Wavelet Analysis of the Scale-Oriented Structure of Modeled Synchrotron Emission from Electrons in Synthetic Turbulent Magnetic Fields

Publication date: Available online 8 December 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Pavel K. Batrakov, Vladimir O. Yurovsky, Ilya A. Kudryashov

A Global Neural Network Model of 3D Ionospheric Electron Density Based on COSMIC Radio Occultation Measurements

Publication date: Available online 8 December 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Qihui Jiang, Shunzu Gao, Chao Xiong, Qian Pan, Yuyang Huang, Jie Wu, Hong Zhang

Preface: Spectroscopy and Data in Investigation of the Active Galactic Nuclei

Publication date: Available online 8 December 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Milan S. Dimitrijević, Luka Č. Popović

Massive rock layer beneath Bermuda may explain island's unusual elevation

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 12/15/2025 - 18:30
Bermuda may well be associated with exaggerated stories of missing ships and planes, but there is another mystery about this part of the Atlantic that has been puzzling scientists for decades: Why does the island appear to float above the surrounding ocean? A new study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters could have the answer. Researchers have discovered a massive 12.4-mile (20-kilometer) thick layer of rock beneath Bermuda between Earth's crust and mantle.

Amazon could lose over a third of forest cover by century's end

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 12/15/2025 - 18:20
A new LMU study estimates that land use changes in conjunction with climate change could lead to the loss of up to 38% of the Amazon rainforest by the end of the 21st century.

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