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University of Idaho researchers have developed a mathematical model that simplifies the way scientists understand changes in glacier movement. This new approach demonstrates that diverse patterns of ice flow—ranging from short-term fluctuations to multi-year trends—can be explained using a single set of fundamental equations.

How heat from the sun plays a role in seismic activity on Earth

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 03/04/2025 - 16:00

Seismology has revealed much of the basics about earthquakes: Tectonic plates move, causing strain energy to build up, and that energy eventually releases in the form of an earthquake. As for forecasting them, however, there's still much to learn in order to evacuate cities before catastrophes like the 2011 magnitude 9.0 Tōhoku earthquake that, in addition to causing the tsunami that led to the Fukushima nuclear disaster, resulted in more than 18,000 deaths.

'Structural change' identified in Antarctica's sea ice system

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 03/04/2025 - 14:15

In the last few years, Antarctic sea ice has been behaving erratically. Sea ice cover has been much more variable than it used to be, with anomalies lasting much longer than previously documented. Most concerning for scientists is that sea ice cover has been remarkably low in recent years. A new study shows that the extreme lows are highly unlikely to have happened in the last century.

Intense atmospheric rivers can replenish some of the Greenland Ice Sheet's lost ice

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 03/04/2025 - 09:21

The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest ice mass in the Northern Hemisphere, and it's melting rapidly. Climate change is causing more intense atmospheric rivers, which can deliver intense snowfall—enough to slow Greenland's ice mass loss, a new study finds.

MTUQ: A framework for estimating moment tensors, point forces, and their uncertainties

Geophysical Journal International - Tue, 03/04/2025 - 00:00

SummaryWe introduce MTUQ, an open-source Python package for seismic source estimation and uncertainty quantification, emphasizing flexibility and operational scalability. MTUQ provides MPI-parallelized grid search and global optimization capabilities, compatibility with 1D and 3D Green’s function database formats, customizable data processing, C-accelerated waveform and first-motion polarity misfit functions, and utilities for plotting seismic waveforms and visualizing misfit and likelihood surfaces. Applicability to a range of full- and constrained-moment tensor, point force, and centroid inversion problems is possible via a documented application programming interface (API), accompanied by example scripts and integration tests. We demonstrate the software using three different types of seismic events: 1) a 2009 intra-slab earthquake near Anchorage, Alaska; 2) an episode of the 2021 Barry Arm landslide in Alaska; and 3) the 2017 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) underground nuclear test. With these events, we illustrate the well-known complementary character of body waves, surface waves, and polarities for constraining source parameters. We also convey the distinct misfit patterns that arise from each individual data type, the importance of uncertainty quantification for detecting multi-modal or otherwise poorly constrained solutions, and the software’s flexible, modular design.

The SPOCK Equation of State for condensed phases under arbitrary compression

Geophysical Journal International - Tue, 03/04/2025 - 00:00

SummaryThis short paper presents a new equation of state for condensed phases. The equation of state is built on the premise that K′, the first derivative of the bulk modulus, monotonically increases with volume according to a power law. The input parameters are the zero-pressure volume V0, bulk modulus K0, and first and second derivatives of the bulk modulus, $K^{\prime }_0$ and $K^{\prime \prime }_0$, and also $K^{\prime }_{\infty }$, the value of K′ at infinite compression. Expressions are provided for the internal energy, pressure, and bulk modulus. The equation of state is robust for all compressions as long as $K^{\prime \prime }_0 < 0$ and $K^{\prime }_{\infty } < K^{\prime }_0$. Heuristic values are suggested for situations in which available data is not sufficient to independently constrain $K^{\prime \prime }_0$ and $K^{\prime }_{\infty }$. The equation of state compares favourably with other equations of state using recently published experimental data on Au and Pt.

New parameterization schemes enhance the prediction accuracy of typhoon intensity

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 03/03/2025 - 20:44

To reduce the loss of human lives and damage to property caused by typhoon disasters, it is crucial to continuously improve numerical models and enhance their capacity to forecast typhoon tracks and intensities. Numerical models serve as important tools in typhoon numerical simulations and operational forecasts. Since 1990, the accuracy of typhoon track forecasts using numerical models has gradually improved. However, improvement in intensity forecasts has been slow.

The US weather enterprise is at risk, say meteorologists

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 03/03/2025 - 19:56

The American Meteorological Society has released the following statement regarding weather forecasting at the federal National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Soil found to play crucial role in breaking down methane from leaking legacy wells

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 03/03/2025 - 19:10

New research has revealed that soils surrounding onshore oil and gas wells are able to absorb methane leakage, preventing the potent greenhouse gas from entering the atmosphere and contributing to global warming. The research is published in Geophysical Research Letters.

Going with the flow: Visualizing ocean currents with ECCO ocean model

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 03/03/2025 - 18:57

Historically, the ocean has been difficult to model. Scientists struggled in years past to simulate ocean currents or accurately predict fluctuations in temperature, salinity, and other properties. As a result, models of ocean dynamics rapidly diverged from reality, which meant they could only provide useful information for brief periods.