Feed aggregator

A July 2025 report from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) claims that U.S. tide gauge measurements "in aggregate show no obvious acceleration in sea level rise beyond the historical average rate." However, a new study by Chris Piecuch, a physical oceanographer with the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), reaches a dramatically different conclusion.

Rising global emissions of hydrogen over the past three decades have added to the planet's warming temperatures and amplified the impact of methane, one of the most potent greenhouse gases, according to new research published in Nature.

body {background-color: #D2D1D5;} Research & Developments is a blog for brief updates that provide context for the flurry of news regarding law and policy changes that impact science and scientists today.

The Trump administration is planning to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), one of the world’s leading climate and Earth science research laboratories, according to a statement from Russ Vought, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, to USA Today. 

Vought called the facility “one of the largest sources of climate alarmism in the country” and said the administration had already started a comprehensive review of activities at the laboratory. 

“Vital activities such as weather research will be moved to another entity or location,” Vought said. 

 

Related Content

•  Trump moves to dismantle major US climate research center in Colorado
•  Russ Vought post on X
•  Statement from UCAR President Antonio Busalacchi
• Get Involved: Speak Out to Save NCAR Today

The National Science Foundation established NCAR in 1960 as the foundation’s first federally funded research and development center. Among other work, NCAR researchers use both models and observations to study weather, air quality, water management, and solar storms. NCAR’s Derecho supercomputer, housed in Wyoming, allows researchers across the country to run detailed models stimulating phenomena such as cyclones and major wildfires.

Among other innovations, scientists at NCAR invented dropsondes, devices that drop from aircraft to measure pressure, temperature, and humidity during storms. They use models that predict how inclement weather will affect road safety. They are developing a turbulence detection system to allow aircraft to avoid rough spots, working to improve hurricane prediction, and projecting atmospheric conditions months in advance to provide guidance for U.S. military planners.

In a statement shared with Eos, Pamitha Weerasinghe, a science policy professional and director of a campaign to strengthen federal science called Knowledge for a Competitive America, said that the work conducted at NCAR has “formed the scientific bedrock on which modern America was built. To propose ‘breaking up’ NSF NCAR is to ignore the needs of American families and industries, and deny them the information and tools they need to prosper.”

The news comes as international Earth and space scientists, many of whom will likely be affected by the news, gather at AGU’s annual conference in New Orleans. Some took to social media to express their disappointment.

“NCAR is quite literally our global mothership,” climate scientist Katherine Hayhoe wrote on Bluesky. “Everyone who works in climate and weather has passed through its doors and benefited from its incredible resources. Dismantling NCAR is like taking a sledgehammer to the keystone holding up our scientific understanding of the planet.”

NCAR is quite literally our global mothership. Everyone who works in climate and weather has passed through its doors and benefited from its incredible resources. Dismantling NCAR is like taking a sledgehammer to the keystone holding up our scientific understanding of the planet.Unbelievable.

— Katharine Hayhoe (@katharinehayhoe.com) 2025-12-17T02:59:29.336Z

Other scientists expressed similar sentiments.

It is hard to overstate how critical @ncar-ucar.bsky.social is to climate science in the US and around the world. It's the beating heart of our field. Generations of scientists have trained there, and almost everyone I know relies on deep collaborations with NCAR scientists. It's end is unthinkable.

— Kim Cobb (@kimcobb.bsky.social) 2025-12-17T02:50:46.254Z

This is absolutely insane and so incredibly shortsighted. NCAR is a global pillar for all atmospheric science and holds the highest of standards for research excellence. We collaborate with NCAR; source data from them; they pioneer scientific breakthroughs.This must not go quietly.

— Brian Matilla (@bxmatilla.bsky.social) 2025-12-17T05:25:14.802Z

As someone not with NCAR, I use NCAR-based software everyday to help identify and track regions of excessive precipitation to help NWS forecasters protect lives and property. NCAR is extremely valuable and we need them.

— Noah Brauer (@noaabrauer.bsky.social) 2025-12-17T04:16:52.073Z

NCAR is home to about 830 employees, but it is not clear how many employees or programs the dismantling will affect. According to a senior White House official who spoke to USA Today, the effort will begin immediately, and includes closing the center’s headquarters: the Mesa Laboratory in Boulder, Colo. The official also flagged several programs the administration considers wasteful, such as efforts to make the sciences more inclusive and research into wind turbines.

In a 16 December statement posted on the NCAR website, Antonio Busalacchi, president of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, which manages NCAR, said the center was aware of the Trump administration’s proposal, but had not received additional information.

“NSF NCAR’s research is crucial for building American prosperity by protecting lives and property, supporting the economy, and strengthening national security,” he wrote. “Any plans to dismantle NSF NCAR would set back our nation’s ability to predict, prepare for, and respond to severe weather and other natural disasters.”

In a livestream about the news on Wednesday morning, weather and climate scientist Daniel Swain said NCAR is set to be dismantled for “reasons that do not align with the interests of Americans, which do not align with the interests of really anybody, anywhere in the world.”

“I think this is the moment to be reaching out to your lawmakers and speaking with journalists about the value of NCAR and what would be lost, what will be lost, if the current plan is fully put into motion,” he said.

To voice your support for NCAR, visit this AGU page, where you can find email text and a call script to share with your representatives.

—Emily Gardner (@emfurd@bsky.social), Associate Editor, and Grace van Deelen (@gvd.bsky.social), Staff Writer

These updates are made possible through information from the scientific community. Do you have a story about how changes in law or policy are affecting scientists or research? Send us a tip at eos@agu.org. Text © 2025. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

New research reveals how ocean warming triggered the large-scale retreat of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS)—offering vital clues for understanding its modern-day vulnerability.

It’s now become easier to forecast the next eruption of Alaska’s Bogoslof volcano.

New research led by Pavel Izbekov, a volcanologist at the Alaska Volcano Observatory, is applying the foundations of diffusion chronometry—the study of chemical change in crystals over time—to a new eruption forecasting approach. Izbekov’s team used crystal clusters and their collective records of magma to date and discern the cause of the 2016–2017 Bogoslof volcanic eruption.

They found that around 180 days before the eruption, the volcano experienced a rapid ascent of magma to a shallow storage chamber under the surface of the volcano, where it accumulated until it erupted. These findings can be used in tandem with other monitoring methods to more accurately anticipate the next eruption at Bogoslof and other volcanoes.

“Understanding how [volcanoes] work, understanding what precedes an eruption, and the ability to forecast volcanic behavior is extremely important for our safety,” Izbekov said. The team presented their findings on 17 December at AGU’s Annual Meeting 2025 in New Orleans.

Crystal Clusters as Clocks

A volcanologist reconstructing the history of magma with zone records is “like a forensic detective trying to figure out a crime scene in a crystal,” said Hannah Shamloo, a volcanologist at Central Washington University who was not involved in the new research.

A volcanic crystal grows from its core outward, developing concentric zones each time it experiences a major event. Visible under an electron microprobe, the zones resemble a tree’s growth rings, which capture the chemical reactions spurred by a particular event. The innermost zones near the crystal’s core reflect early life events, while the outermost zones along the rim depict activity later in life.

“If you look at the pair [of crystals], which responded to the same event simultaneously, well, we’re in business.”

The challenge is that multiple events can yield the same chemical reaction within a zone. To eliminate competing possible causes of the Bogoslof eruption, Izbekov and his colleagues looked not just at one crystal, but at a cluster of crystals of different types. If volcanologists look not just at the plagioclase, whose zone records they can attribute to a few possible explanations, but also at a clinopyroxene, whose zone records point to a different set of explanations, they can find a common denominator by the process of elimination.

“If you look at the pair, which responded to the same event simultaneously, well, we’re in business. This is the beauty of this new approach,” Izbekov said.

From Past to Future

Bogoslof was an optimal case study for cluster chronometry because the magma in its chamber below the seafloor is rich in crystals that record clear responses to pressure and temperature changes.

The team analyzed plagioclase-clinopyroxene-amphibole clusters within samples of basalt that erupted from Bogoslof in August 2017, toward the end of a 9-month eruption period. The conjoined crystals shared zone boundaries, indicating that they experienced the same events in the magma chamber.

One event stood out because the three minerals responded very differently: The clinopyroxene crystals suddenly decreased in magnesium content, the plagioclases decreased in anorthite content, and the amphiboles stopped growing. Izbekov and his team determined that decompression, a rapid drop in magmatic pressure that happens when magma ascends toward the volcanic surface, is the best explanation for all three distinct responses across the crystals’ zones.

Now, when a seismometer picks up signs of decompression at Bogoslof, a roughly 180-day countdown until eruption can begin.

The researchers then attempted to date the decompression event and found that it happened no more than 180 days prior to the end of the second eruption in August, around early March 2017. They validated their detective work in the cluster investigation by comparing their results with those from established geochemical monitoring methods. Monitors had picked up higher seismic activity and sulfur dioxide emissions—two indicators of magma’s ascent through the crust and the corresponding drop in pressure—at Bogoslof in March 2017, which supported the team’s findings.

In the future, when a seismometer picks up signs of decompression at Bogoslof, a roughly 180-day countdown until eruption can begin—if an eruption happens when expected, it would further validate the diffusion chronometry technique.

Predictive Power of Crystals

Shamloo was encouraged by the results but cautioned that there was still much to decipher about how crystals record a volcano’s inner workings.

“There’s a lot that can happen to the crystal record that can confuse a geologist,” Shamloo said.

The temperature of the magma at the point of diffusion is one of those confusing, yet essential, components. While the exact temperature of the basalt is unknown, Izbekov and his colleagues “did a careful job handling their assumptions for their model to minimize uncertainty,” Shamloo said.

“I do think relying on the crystal record in general is becoming a useful ‘monitoring’ tool for volcanoes,” Shamloo said. “There is power in reading the crystal record to really understand eruptive histories and potentially how a volcano will erupt in the future.”

—Claudia Steiner (@claudiasteiner.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Steiner, C. (2025), Crystal clusters contain clues to magma’s past and future eruptions, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250475. Published on 17 December 2025. Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Years before the first telescope was invented, sky-gazers made their rooms into pinhole cameras and took pen to paper, drawing the Sun and the little dark spots that moved across its face day by day. Sunspot drawings date back more than 2,000 years to astronomers in ancient China and, many centuries later, to Western scientists like Galileo and Kepler.

Now science historians worldwide have come together to compile and digitize 400 years’ worth of sunspot drawings in the hopes of illuminating solar activity of the past and informing our present understanding. Solar physicist Andrés Muñoz-Jaramillo used this digitized collection of sunspot observations to develop a collection of software tools to analyze solar cycles and reconstruct missing gaps.

“When we think about how much our capability of observing the [solar] cycle has evolved during the past decades—it’s incredible,” said Muñoz-Jaramillo, a senior research scientist at the Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colo. “The quality, resolution, cadence, everything.”

Learning from the Past

Solar cycles typically last 11 years, but Muñoz-Jaramillo said that the best instruments for observing the Sun, like the Parker Solar Probe and the Solar Dynamics Observatory, have been around for only about 2 decades. To understand solar variability going back centuries, researchers must look to techniques of the past.

“Whenever we’re dealing with long-term variability, we don’t have the luxury of waiting 100 years to get better data,” said Muñoz-Jaramillo.

Before the invention of the photograph, astronomers would point a solar telescope at the Sun and use the eyepiece to project the image upon a surface covered with paper. They would sketch the sunspots they observed that day and denote the time and date. Over time, the spots appeared to move across the page and grow or shrink or change shape. Some of these records of solar activity have survived to the present day, often gathering dust in neglected corners of archives.

Historians have been diligently collecting and digitizing centuries of drawings and creating detailed logs of the position and size of spots over time. Researchers are now using these logs to study the long-term variability of the Sun.

“A huge part of this work is done by our historian friends. They are like detectives.”

“A huge part of this work is done by our historian friends. They are like detectives,” said Muñoz-Jaramillo. “The real heroes are those that went from archives to basements and traveled all over the world and talked with people, convinced them to let them in, allowed them to take pictures.”

But hundreds of years’ worth of data are difficult to handle. So Muñoz-Jaramillo and his colleagues developed a computational framework to support the efforts of solar cycle researchers worldwide. This collection of software tools uses Bayesian statistics to fill in the gaps where sunspot data may not be available.

“You can make these statements now in a probabilistic way about what went on in these historical periods,” said Muñoz-Jaramillo.

The researchers used this new framework to learn more about the Maunder Minimum, a time period in the 15th century when the Sun was less active and very few sunspots were observed—a few dozen in comparison to the tens of thousands typically observed. With so few data points, any additional information can help scientists better understand the solar activity of the time, Muñoz-Jaramillo said. They also examined another slow activity period in the late 16th century called the Dalton Minimum and compared recent solar activity to that of previous centuries.

Using this framework, they learned that the Maunder and Dalton Minima might have been preceded by other cycles with deep minima in solar activity spread far apart in time. Some heliophysicists speculate that there may be entire solar cycles’ worth of observations missing, Muñoz-Jaramillo said.

Muñoz-Jaramillo and his colleagues presented these results on 16 December at AGU’s Annual Meeting 2025 in New Orleans.

Spotting the Sun’s Evolution

Solar cycle researchers typically observe cycles with what are known as butterfly diagrams, plots of the time and latitude of sunspots. These plots can be used to understand the long-term variability of the Sun by comparing modern and historic data and noting parallels between them. Researchers can reconstruct past solar cycles using this new computational framework and can analyze them using butterfly diagrams to better understand how the Sun has changed in recent centuries.

“It’s a service to the community. We put all these things together to make it easier for any modern scientist to work with.”

“This study is highly innovative because, until now, reconstructions of past solar activity have relied solely on sunspot counts,” José Manuel Vaquero Martínez, a physics professor at the Universidad de Extremadura who was not involved in the study, said in an email. “In contrast, this approach incorporates not only the number of sunspots but also their positions. In other words, it leverages our understanding of how solar active regions (in this case, sunspots) evolve to reconstruct past solar activity.”

The team hopes their work will enable researchers to tap into the treasure trove of historical data more easily than before, Muñoz-Jaramillo said. “It’s a service to the community. We put all these things together to make it easier for any modern scientist to work with.”

—Daniella García Almeida, Science Writer

Citation: García Almeida, D. (2025), Sunspot drawings illuminate 400 years of solar activity, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250477. Published on 17 December 2025. Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Source: AGU Advances

Earth system models offer insight into how climate change will affect communities. But residents of those communities are rarely consulted on the design and deployment of these models, which can lead to the models being misused in local decisionmaking. To bridge this divide, Cheng et al. collaborated with Indigenous communities in two regions to model the effects climate change will have on their land.

In the Arctic Rivers project, the researchers worked with Indigenous communities across Alaska to model how climate change will alter rivers and streams. In the Mid-Klamath project, the researchers worked with the Karuk Tribe in Northern California to study how different wildfire management strategies would affect local hydrology.

In both cases, mismatches existed between the methodology available to the researchers and the needs of the end users, and the collaborators mitigated these mismatches to varying extents. In the Arctic Rivers project, for example, constraints on computational resources limited the number of future scenarios the researchers could model. Thanks to involvement from the project’s own Indigenous Advisory Council and the Yukon River Inter-Tribal Watershed Council, the researchers were able to prioritize the scenarios most relevant to the communities.

In the Mid-Klamath project, on the other hand, misunderstandings at the start of the project led the researchers to choose a modeling tool that didn’t fully meet the expectations of the tribe. More extensive discussions during early stages of the project could have avoided this issue, the researchers noted, and the National Science Foundation has recently begun to change its granting system to allow for these early discussions.

Accurately communicating the limits of the available technology is crucial, the researchers wrote. For example, one member of an Alaskan community stated that conditions in the region were changing so quickly that they needed subseasonal projections in addition to decade-scale projections. Unfortunately, the former were beyond the technical expertise of the scientists involved in the project. But scientists were careful not to mislead the community into thinking such a thing was possible in that project.

Cultural humility and spending ample time with Indigenous communities are both cornerstones of successful collaborations, the researchers wrote. At the same time, it’s important to acknowledge the capacity constraints that many scientists face. In addition, it is valuable to offer roles involving reasonable time commitments to scientists with fewer resources, so as not to exclude them from the codesign process. (AGU Advances, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV001921, 2025)

—Saima May Sidik (@saimamay.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Sidik, S. M. (2025), Climate modeling for communities, with communities, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250473. Published on 17 December 2025. Text © 2025. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

New research from Northern Arizona University shows detailed CO2 emissions for the United States from 2010 to 2022.

Dams in the United States may be in worse condition than previously understood. More than 16,700 dams across the country are classified as high hazard potential as of 2024, according to the Association of State Dam Safety Officials.

The Arctic landscape is changing at an unprecedented rate. In addition to rising temperatures, climate change is causing episodes of extreme melting, which occurs when ice losses that previously took weeks or months occur over just a few days.

Many so-called low-carbon projects promoted by major oil and gas companies—including hydrogen, biofuels, carbon capture and storage, and carbon offsetting—operate as false solutions that not only fail to effectively reduce emissions, but also prolong the lifespan of fossil fuel infrastructures, entrench environmental injustices, and reinforce the political and economic power of the very industry responsible for the climate crisis.

SummaryMass redistribution during earthquake rupture, along with subsequent wave propagation, perturbs Earth’s gravity field, generating so-called ‘prompt elasto-gravitational signals’ (PEGS) and ‘prompt gravity-strain signals’ (PGSS). These signals are detectable on accelerometers and gradiometers before P-wave arrivals, and therefore offer the potential for early-warning systems and rapid assessment of event magnitude and tsunamigenic risk. Despite their significance, numerical modelling of PEGS and PGSS has been restricted to 1D Earth models, assuming negligible effects of 3D heterogeneities.In this study, we utilise a Spectral-Infinite-Element method to compute these PEGS and PGSS for both 1D and 3D Earth models. Kernels of sensitivity to model heterogeneity are investigated using the adjoint method, which is re-formulated to write the self-gravitating adjoint equations directly in terms of density and elastic perturbations only. We find that PEGS and PGSS display the greatest sensitivity to model perturbations below the source and receiver; however, sensitivity is generally weak, validating previous assumptions that 1D models are sufficient.

The oceanic conditions that churn up the very strongest of hurricanes and typhoons are heating up in the North Atlantic and Western Pacific, fueled by warm water that extends well below the surface. Human-caused climate change may be responsible for up to 70% of the growth of storm-brewing hotspots there, according to new research.

Salt marshes, those critical habitats that protect coastal towns from flooding, store massive amounts of blue carbon, support fisheries and play a key role in ecological resilience, are struggling to survive as oceans rise due to climate change.

Across the western U.S., wildfires and the dangerous smoke that results have increased in frequency and intensity since the 1990s—that much is clear. Surprisingly less clear are the exact reasons why: While greenhouse gas-related global warming is often cited as a culprit, to what extent can this claim be quantified?

In the midst of the COVID pandemic, scientists embarked on an ambitious research expedition to the North Atlantic to investigate the inner workings of the ocean's carbon cycle. A series of storms hammered the three vessels, among the most advanced research ships in the world, while bureaucratic mayhem threatened to scrub the voyage entirely.

When Santa is done delivering presents on Christmas Eve, he must get back home to the North Pole, even if it's snowing so hard that the reindeer can't see the way.

A new study provides evidence that the ocean may have absorbed as much as 15% (0.3–0.4 Pg C yr-1) more CO2 than previously thought, requiring a re-think of future CO2 flux assessments and global climate models.

NOAA released this year’s Arctic Report Card on 16 December at AGU’s Annual Meeting 2025 in New Orleans. The report gives an update on changes to the region’s climate, environment, and communities and documents these changes for future scientists looking to the Arctic’s past.

In 2025, parts of the Arctic experienced record-breaking temperatures, low sea ice extent, and other extreme climate events. Credit: NOAA’s Arctic Report Card 2025

After 2 decades of the U.S. government producing the annual report, however, datasets and resources used to create it may be under threat as federal science agencies lose staff and plan for funding uncertainties.

“There is growing concern over how the U.S. will be investing in Arctic research,” said Matthew Druckenmiller, an Arctic scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center and lead editor of the report.

Another Year of Arctic Records

From October 2024 to September 2025, the time period analyzed by the report, Arctic surface air temperatures were the warmest on record. The past year in the Arctic marked the region’s warmest autumn, second-warmest winter, and third-warmest summer ever.

This year, the Arctic also had the most precipitation ever recorded, with its wettest spring on record and higher than normal winter snow cover. “To see both those records [precipitation and surface air temperature] set in a single year was remarkable,” Druckenmiller said.

Seasonal surface air temperature anomalies (in °C) for (a) autumn 2024, (b) winter 2025, (c) spring 2025, and (d) summer 2025. Temperature anomalies are shown relative to their 1991–2020 means. Hatching indicates the warmest seasonal temperatures since 1940. Source: ERA5 reanalysis air temperature data were obtained from the Copernicus Climate Change Service. Click image for larger version. Credit: NOAA’s Arctic Report Card 2025

Sea ice in the Arctic continues to hit new lows: Maximum sea ice extent this winter was the lowest observed in the 47-year satellite record. As sea ice shrinks, the Arctic becomes less reflective, exacerbating climate change as the region absorbs, rather than reflects, more heat from the Sun. Ice on land also continues to melt—the Greenland Ice Sheet lost mass in 2025, as it has every year since the late 1990s.

As the region warms, the Arctic Ocean and associated waterways are changing, too. “Atlantification,” a northward intrusion of warm, salty water from the Atlantic, is altering the Arctic Ocean, leading to decreased winter sea ice and creating conditions for more frequent algal blooms. How this influx of water will affect ecological communities in the Arctic remains one of the biggest unanswered scientific questions about the Arctic, said Igor Polyakov, an oceanographer at the University of Alaska Fairbanks and coauthor of the report.

Data Difficulties

Data included in the report are collected by the Arctic Observing Network (AON), an internationally coordinated system of data observation and sharing.

But obstacles impede the system’s ability to monitor the Arctic, according to report authors. Sparse ground-based observation systems, unreliable infrastructure, limited telecommunications, and satellites operating beyond their mission lifetimes are hindering data collection and sharing. “Persistent gaps limit the AON’s ability to fully support Arctic assessments and decision-making,” the authors write.

Science agencies such as NOAA, NASA, and the National Science Foundation and the Interior Department contribute significantly to AON, but all faced staff and budget reductions in 2025. These changes could affect AON and its ability to publish the Arctic Report Card, “jeopardizing long-term trend analyses and undermining decision-making,” the authors write.

Though the Arctic Report Card team received “great support” from NOAA and the report was successfully published, “there were some difficult moments this year,” Druckenmiller said.

“Data doesn’t interpret itself.”

In particular, the shutdown of climate.gov, the NOAA website that housed most of its climate science information, slowed the team’s ability to create the report’s graphics. The federal shutdown in October and November delayed the processing of key datasets, notably one from NASA that documented surface air temperature.

In addition, the report points out that federal budget proposals for 2026 may affect multiple datasets and observation systems used in the report. The three primary sea ice–observing systems (CryoSat-2, Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite 2 (ICESat-2)) are all operating past their mission lifetime, as well. And in July, the Department of Defense decommissioned its Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, which tracked meteorological, oceanographic, and solar-terrestrial physics in the Arctic and elsewhere.

“When these long-standing data products are decommissioned, you really lose a lot of data continuity, which is really important if you’re going to accurately document long-term trends,” Druckenmiller said.

Losing expert scientists at federal science agencies, labs, universities, and research institutions will likely pose challenges, too, he added. “Data doesn’t interpret itself.”

Indigenous-Led Data Collection

Rapid changes to the Arctic are stressing the human communities there: Permafrost thaw releases potential toxicants into drinking water, wetter weather contributes to flooding, and changes to snowfall and ice affect travel. The remnants of Typhoon Halong brought extreme winds and surging water to Alaska’s southwestern coast in October 2025, flooding communities and forcing more than 1,500 residents to evacuate.

Data give these communities—many of which are majority Indigenous—a better ability to respond to climate change, and a weaker AON could impede flood prediction and community adaptation plans, the report states.

As the availability of federal data and resources remains uncertain, Indigenous-led monitoring networks highlighted in the report have provided another model.

Sentinels from the Indigenous Sentinels Network and two NOAA officials conduct surveys on northern fur seal rookeries on St. Paul Island, Alaska. Credit: Hannah-Marie Ladd, NOAA’s Arctic Report Card 2025

The Indigenous Sentinels Network, for example, is a tribally owned and operated cyber infrastructure system supporting Indigenous-led environmental monitoring. Sentinels collect observational data on a range of environmental systems, from wildlife to coastal erosion to tundra greening. The data collected are governed by the communities that collect them and used locally for decisionmaking, collaborative research projects, and climate adaptation planning.

The Building Research Aligned with Indigenous Determination, Equity, and Decision-making (BRAIDED) Food Security Project, another example of an Indigenous-led monitoring project, tracks mercury in locally harvested foods to ensure food safety. All the samples are processed and tested locally on St. Paul Island in Alaska.

“These are models that can be used for resilience everywhere.”

This type of place-based, community-led monitoring is “foundational to understanding and responding to rapid change” facing the Arctic, said Hannah-Marie Ladd, program director for the Indigenous Sentinels Network and author of the new report.

“Indigenous-led monitoring can, and always has, complemented federal science by providing year-round, place-based observations that are often missing” from short-term field seasons, she said. “[Sentinels] live in these environments, and they can detect changes earlier and interpret them with cultural and ecological context that is often missing when outside entities come into a new relationship with a place.”

Such a framework will become only more valuable as the Arctic, and the rest of the world, warms. “These are models that can be used for resilience everywhere,” Ladd said.

—Grace van Deelen (@gvd.bsky.social), Staff Writer

Citation: van Deelen, G. (2025), Amid the Arctic’s hottest year, Arctic science faces a data deficiency, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250482. Published on 16 December 2025. Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Intense storms that sweep over the Southern Ocean enable the ocean to absorb more heat from the atmosphere. New research from the University of Gothenburg shows that today's climate models underestimate how storms mix the ocean and thereby give less reliable future projections of our climate.