A modeling System for Identification of Maize Ideotypes, optimal sowing dates and nitrogen fertilization under climate change – PREPCLIM-v1
Mihaela Caian, Catalin Lazar, Petru Neague, Antoanela Dobre, Vlad Amihaesei, Zenaida Chitu, Adrian Irasoc, Andreea Popescu, and George Cizmas
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-105,2024
Preprint under review for GMD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
We present the implementation and use of a new integrated climate-phenology adaptation modeling system for climate change using CORDEX scenarios and DSSAT crop model with new developed modules for optimal agro-management and genotype identification under future climate. Optimisation is a hybrid deterministic /ML genetic algorithms method. The system is user-interactive in real time, has been implemented and tested for South Romania, is applicable for Southern-Europe and extendable for Europe.
Abstract
Shallow convective clouds play a crucial role in Earth's energy budget, as they modulate the radiative transfer in the atmosphere and participate in the vertical transport of aerosols, energy, and humidity. The parameterizations representing these complex, vital players in weather and climate models are mostly based on a description of steady-state plumes and are a source of major uncertainty. Recently, several studies have shown that buoyant thermals are inherent in atmospheric convection and contain a toroidal (ring) vortex. This work studies those vortices in growing shallow cumulus (Cu) clouds using high-resolution (10 m) Large Eddy Simulations that resolve these vortices in much detail. Recent analysis of such data showed that small-scale turbulent diffusion is unable to explain the large diluted portion of the cloud. Here we advocate for the important role of the Cu toroidal vortex (TV) in cloud dilution and present the complex dynamics and structure of a Cu TV. Nevertheless, since the vortex dominates the cloud's dilution, simplicity emerges when considering the cloud's lateral mass flux profile. The cloud mixing is quantified using direct flux calculations and Eulerian tracers. In addition, Lagrangian tracers are used to identify the origin of the entrained air and its thermodynamic properties. It shows that most of the air entrained by the vortex is not recycled by the vortex, yet is significantly more humid than the environment. We suggest that the development of new models describing thermals, together with their toroidal vortices, might improve cloud parameterizations in weather and climate models.
No abstract is available for this article.
Preparation of low-concentration H2 test gas mixtures in ambient air for calibration of H2 sensors
Niklas Karbach, Lisa Höhler, Peter Hoor, Heiko Bozem, Nicole Bobrowski, and Thorsten Hoffmann
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 4081–4086, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4081-2024, 2024
The system presented here can accurately generate and reproduce a stable flow of gas mixtures of known concentrations over several days using ambient air as a dilution medium. In combination with the small size and low weight of the system, this enables the calibration of hydrogen sensors in the field, reducing the influence of matrix effects on the accuracy of the sensor. The system is inexpensive to assemble and easy to maintain, which is the key to reliable measurement results.
Flood risk assessment through large-scale modeling under uncertainty
Luciano Pavesi, Elena Volpi, and Aldo Fiori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-114,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Several sources of uncertainty affect flood risk estimation for reliable assessment for investors, insurance and risk management. Here, we consider the uncertainty of large-scale flood hazard modeling, providing a range of risk values that show significant variability depending on geomorphic factors and land use types. This allows to identify the critical points where single value estimates may underestimate the risk, and the areas of vulnerability to prioritize risk reduction efforts.
Abstract
This study explores the capability of amphibole in tracing the physicochemical process of magma mixing through spatially associated gabbros, mafic microgranular enclaves (MMEs) and granodiorites from central Tibet. These rocks share similar zircon ages as well as zircon Hf-O and plagioclase Sr isotopes. However, the amphiboles within the gabbros and granodiorites have different Sr and B isotope compositions, while amphiboles with both heterogeneous isotopic imprints occur in the MMEs. According to data and modeling, significant mixing of two isotopically distinct magmas is recorded by amphibole but not by zircon and plagioclase. Based on a synthesis of petrography, geochemistry and thermobarometry, we interpret this inconsistency by the crystallization order of minerals and propose that magma mixing occurred after the parent magma was emplaced at ∼10 km and cooled to ∼750°C. Our study highlights that amphibole may be a more sensitive tracer of magma mixing relative to other commonly used methods.
Abstract
Offshore wind farms, a rapidly expanding sector within wind energy, are playing a significant role in achieving global carbon neutrality, and this trend is to continue. Here, we utilize ERA5 reanalysis to correct offshore wind speed trends predicted by CMIP6 models. This approach led to enhanced projections for changes in offshore Wind Power Density (WPD) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios. Throughout the 21st century, global offshore WPD is projected to follow an upward trend across all SSP scenarios. Notably, Europe stands out with the most substantial increase in offshore WPD among regions with higher current installations, projected to reach up to 26% under 4°C global warming. Our study uncovers a notable increase of global offshore WPD in a warmer climate, which offers valuable insights for the strategic planning of future global wind energy.
Abstract
Previous studies have demonstrated that vegetation-generated turbulence can enhance erosion rate and reduce the velocity threshold for erosion of non-cohesive sediment. This study considered whether vegetation-generated turbulence had a similar influence on natural cohesive sediment. Cores were collected from a black mangrove forest with aboveground biomass and exposed to stepwise increases in velocity. Erosion was recorded through suspended sediment concentration. For the same velocity, cores with pneumatophores had elevated turbulent kinetic energy compared to bare cores without pneumatophores. However, the vegetation-generated turbulence did not increase bed stress or the rate of resuspension, relative to bare cores. It was hypothesized that the short time-scale fluctuations associated with vegetation-generated turbulence were not of sufficient duration to break cohesion between grains, explaining why elevated levels of turbulence associated with the pneumatophores had no impact on the erosion threshold or rate.
Abstract
Using observations and CMIP6 historical simulations, the seasonal responses of Southern Ocean (50°S–70°S) sea surface temperature (SST) to Southern Annular Mode (SAM) variations are investigated in this study. The results suggest that the averaged Southern Ocean SST in austral spring and summer show a significant cooling in response to a positive SAM, while the responses in austral autumn and winter are negligible. The cooling effect is resulted from the cold water in higher latitudes and deeper oceans brought by the equatorward Ekman transport and the Ekman pumping associated with the positive SAM. Among CMIP6 models, the magnitude of the simulated cooling response connects to the climatological meridional and vertical ocean temperature gradients, and the magnitude of Ekman motion in response to SAM. In addition, the spring and summer SAM plays a more important role in modulating Southern Ocean SST in autumn and winter than the autumn and winter SAM.
No abstract is available for this article.
Leading the Lorenz 63 system toward the prescribed regime by model predictive control coupled with data assimilation
Fumitoshi Kawasaki and Shunji Kotsuki
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 31, 319–333, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-319-2024, 2024
Recently, scientists have been looking into ways to control the weather to lead to a desirable direction for mitigating weather-induced disasters caused by torrential rainfall and typhoons. This study proposes using the model predictive control (MPC), an advanced control method, to control a chaotic system. Through numerical experiments using a low-dimensional chaotic system, we demonstrate that the system can be successfully controlled with shorter forecasts compared to previous studies.
Abstract
The application of deep learning in high-precision ionospheric parameter prediction has become one of the focus in space weather research. In this study, an improved model called Mixed Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN)—Bi-Long Short Term Memory is proposed for predicting future ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC). The model is trained using the longest available (25 years) Global Ionospheric Maps-TEC and evaluated the accuracy of ionospheric storm predictions. The results indicate that using historical TEC in the solar-geographical reference frame as input driving data achieves higher prediction accuracy compared to that in the geocentric coordinate system. Additionally, by comparing different input parameters, it is found that incorporating the Kp, ap, and Dst indices as inputs to the model effectively improves its accuracy, especially in long-term forecasting where R2 increased by 3.49% and Root Mean Square Error decreased by 13.48%. Compared with BiLSTM-Deep Neural Networks (DNN) and CNN-BiLSTM, the Mixed CNN-BiLSTM model has the highest prediction accuracy. It suggests that the utilization of CNN modules for processing spatial information, along with the incorporation of DNN modules to incorporate geomagnetic indices for result correction. Moreover, in short-term predictions, the model accurately forecasts the evolution process of ionospheric storms. When extending the predicted length, although there are cases of prediction errors, the model still captures the entire process of ionospheric storms. Furthermore, the predicted results are significantly influenced by longitude, magnetic latitude, and local time.
FastIsostasy v1.0 – a regional, accelerated 2D glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model accounting for the lateral variability of the solid Earth
Jan Swierczek-Jereczek, Marisa Montoya, Konstantin Latychev, Alexander Robinson, Jorge Alvarez-Solas, and Jerry Mitrovica
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5263–5290, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5263-2024, 2024
Ice sheets present a thickness of a few kilometres, leading to a vertical deformation of the crust of up to a kilometre. This process depends on properties of the solid Earth, which can be regionally very different. We propose a model that accounts for this often-ignored heterogeneity and run 100 000 simulation years in minutes. Thus, the evolution of ice sheets is modeled with better accuracy, which is critical for a good mitigation of climate change and, in particular, sea-level rise.
Fluvial flood inundation and socio-economic impact model based on open data
Lukas Riedel, Thomas Röösli, Thomas Vogt, and David N. Bresch
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5291–5308, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5291-2024, 2024
River floods are among the most devastating natural hazards. We propose a flood model with a statistical approach based on openly available data. The model is integrated in a framework for estimating impacts of physical hazards. Although the model only agrees moderately with satellite-detected flood extents, we show that it can be used for forecasting the magnitude of flood events in terms of socio-economic impacts and for comparing these with past events.
Development and Comparison of Empirical Models for All-sky Downward Longwave Radiation Estimation at the Ocean Surface Using Long-term Observations
Jianghai Peng, Bo Jiang, Hui Liang, Shaopeng Li, Jiakun Han, Thomas C. Ingalls, Jie Cheng, Yunjun Yao, Kun Jia, and Xiaotong Zhang
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2024-85,2024
Preprint under review for AMT (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Our study introduces a new model that improves predictions of heat interactions at the ocean's surface, using data from 65 buoys. This model, more accurate than previous ones, incorporates effects of cloud cover and atmospheric water, enhancing our understanding of the ocean’s role in climate regulation. This could significantly aid climate research and environmental monitoring.
Abstract
Determining the shear-velocity dependence of dry granular friction can provide insight into the controlling variables in a dry granular friction law. Some laboratories believe that the quality of this study is at the forefront of the discipline for the following reasons. Results suggest that granular friction is greatly affected by shear-velocity (v), but shear experiments over the large range of naturally occurring shear-velocities are lacking. Herein we examined the shear velocity dependence of dry friction for three granular materials, quartz sand, glass beads and fluorspar, across nine orders of magnitude of shear velocity (10−8–2 m/s). Within this range, granular friction exhibited four regimes, following a broad approximate “m” shape including two velocity-strengthening and two velocity-weakening regimes. We discuss the possible physical mechanisms of each regime. This shear velocity dependence appeared to be universal for all particle types, shapes, sizes, and for all normal stresses over the tested range. We also found that ultra-high frequency vibration as grain surfaces were scoured by micro-chips were formed by spalling at high shear velocities, creating ∼20 μm diameter impact pits on particle surfaces. This study provides laboratory laws of a friction-velocity (μ-v) model for granular materials.
Aircraft engine dust ingestion at global airports
Claire L. Ryder, Clément Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2263–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, 2024
Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft via degradation of engine components. This has financial implications for the aviation industry and results in increased fuel burn with climate impacts. Here we quantify dust ingestion by aircraft engines at airports worldwide. We find Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. Dust ingestion can be reduced by changing take-off times and the altitude of holding patterns.
An improved dynamic bidirectional coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic model for efficient flood inundation prediction
Yanxia Shen, Zhenduo Zhu, Qi Zhou, and Chunbo Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2315–2330, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, 2024
We present an improved Multigrid Dynamical Bidirectional Coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic Model (IM-DBCM) with two major improvements: (1) automated non-uniform mesh generation based on the D-infinity algorithm was implemented to identify flood-prone areas where high-resolution inundation conditions are needed, and (2) ghost cells and bilinear interpolation were implemented to improve numerical accuracy in interpolating variables between the coarse and fine grids. The improved model was reliable.
Tsunami hazard assessment in the South China Sea based on geodetic locking of the Manila subduction zone
Guangsheng Zhao and Xiaojing Niu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2303–2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024, 2024
The purpose of this study is to estimate the spatial distribution of the tsunami hazard in the South China Sea from the Manila subduction zone. The plate motion data are used to invert the degree of locking on the fault plane. The degree of locking is used to estimate the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes and describe the slip distribution. A spatial distribution map of the 1000-year return period tsunami wave height in the South China Sea was obtained by tsunami hazard assessment.
