Abstract
Extreme El Niño events have outsized global impacts and control the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm/cold phases asymmetries. Yet, a consensus regarding the relative contributions of atmospheric and oceanic nonlinearities to their genesis remains elusive. Here, we isolate the contribution of oceanic nonlinearities by conducting paired experiments forced with opposite wind stress anomalies in an oceanic general circulation model, which realistically simulates extreme El Niño events and oceanic nonlinearities thought to contribute to ENSO skewness (Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs), Nonlinear Dynamical Heating (NDH)). Our findings indicate a weak contribution of oceanic nonlinearities to extreme El Niño events in the eastern Pacific, owing to compensatory effects between lateral (NDH and TIWs) and vertical processes. These results hold across different vertical mixing schemes and modifications of the upper-ocean heat budget mixed layer criterion. Our study reinforces previous research underscoring the pivotal role of atmospheric nonlinearities in shaping extreme El Niño events.
Abstract
The effects of generating pulsed radiation by a long spark discharge are important for the development of lightning models and applications related to lightning protection. In experiments with a Marx generator simulating a lightning discharge, we detected the radiation in the form of a single ultrawideband electromagnetic pulse (UWB EMP) about 200 ps in duration, and rising time about 100 ps. UWB EMP generation occurs during the breakdown of a “rod–rod” 4 m long gap. Pulses of almost unipolar shape are observed in more than half of all positive discharges. EMP emission occurs before the main stage, and corresponds to the start of the upward leader from a grounded electrode. In negative discharges, pulses are also observed, but less frequently and with a smaller amplitude. The UWB EMPs, given their large amplitude (more than 100 V/m at a distance of 90 m from the discharge), can be considered as possible new lightning damage factors.
Abstract
Although afforestation is a potential strategy to mitigate climate change by sequestering carbon, its potential biophysical effects on climate, such as regulating surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and energy balance, have not been fully incorporated into climate change mitigation strategies. This is partly due to the challenges associated with modeling the complex bidirectional interactions between vegetation and climate. In this study, we assess the impact of afforestation on low cloud cover using a regional climate model (RCM) and Earth observation data, applying a space-for-time approach to overcome limitations that may arise from comparing satellite and RCM results, such as different background climate conditions or different extents of land cover change. Our results show a consistent increase in low cloud cover in Europe due to afforestation in both datasets (3.71% and 3.56% on average, respectively), but the magnitude and direction of this effect depend on various factors, including location, seasonality, and forest type. These results suggest that afforestation can have important feedbacks on the climate system, and that its biophysical effects must be considered in climate change mitigation strategies. Furthermore, we emphasize the role of the modeling community in developing accurate and reliable approaches to assess the biophysical effects of land cover change on climate.
Abstract
The manifestation of extreme solar proton events (SPEs) in Beryllium-10 (10Be) ice core data contains valuable information about the strength and incidence of SPEs or local characteristics of the atmosphere. To extract this information, the signals of enhanced production of cosmogenic 10Be due to the SPEs have to be detected, hence distinguished from the variability of the background production by galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). Here, we study the transport and deposition of 10Be from GCRs, using the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry climate model, and discuss the detectability of extreme SPEs (similar to the CE 774/775 SPE) in 10Be ice core data depending on the ice core location, seasonal appearance of the SPE, atmospheric aerosol size distribution and phase of the 11-year solar cycle. We find that sedimentation can be a major deposition mechanism of GCR generated 10Be, especially at high latitudes, depending on the aerosols to which 10Be attaches after production. The comparison of our results to four ice core records of 10Be from Greenland and Antarctica shows good agreement for both 10Be from GCRs and solar energetic particles (SEP). From our results we deduce that the location of detection and the season of occurrence of the SPE have a considerable effect on its detectability, as well as the aerosol size distribution the produced cosmogenic nuclides meet in the atmosphere. Furthermore, we find that SPEs occurring in the phase of highest activity during the 11-year solar cycle are more detectable than SPEs that arise in the phase of lowest activity.
Abstract
This study evaluated the precipitation forecast produced by the operational China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale model (CMA-MESO) during the “super violent” Meiyu season of 2020. Generally, CMA-MESO, which runs with ∼3-km-grid resolution, is able to reproduce the distribution and diurnal variation of precipitation. However, the precipitation amount is greatly overestimated, especially in eastern coastal areas of China. Precipitation in that region usually occurs with two peaks: one in the morning that mostly reflects organized precipitation systems, and the other in the afternoon generated mostly by local convection. Analyses showed that overestimation of low-level wind speed is the main reason for the overestimation of precipitation. CMA-MESO produces low-level winds that are overly strong, which greatly enhance the predicted convergence at night, leading to overestimation of precipitation. Additionally, the stronger wind speed increases the estimated transport of water vapor to the eastern coastal area, producing fake convection near the coastal mountains as the perturbed wind direction turns toward the mountain area in the afternoon. In comparison with ERA5, CMA-MESO tends to overestimate (underestimate) the temperature in the northwest (southeast), and the larger temperature gradient increases the pressure gradient, resulting in the stronger low-level wind speed.
Abstract
The Planetary Boundary Layer height (PBLH) is essential for studying PBL and ocean-atmosphere interactions. Marine PBL is usually defined to include a mixed layer (ML) and a capping inversion layer. The ML height (MLH) estimated from the measurements of aerosol backscatter by a lidar was usually compared with PBLH determined from radiosondes/dropsondes in the past, as the PBLH is usually similar to MLH in nature. However, PBLH can be much greater than MLH for decoupled PBL. Here we evaluate the retrieved MLH from an airborne lidar (HSRL-2) by utilizing 506 co-located dropsondes during the ACTIVATE field campaign over the Northwest Atlantic from 2020 to 2022. First, we define and determine the MLH and PBLH from the temperature and humidity profiles of each dropsonde, and find that the MLH values from HSRL-2 and dropsondes agree well with each other, with a coefficient of determination of 0.66 and median difference of 18 m. In contrast, the HSRL-2 MLH data do not correspond to dropsonde-derived PBLH, with a median difference of −47 m. Therefore, we modify the current operational and automated HSRL-2 wavelet-based algorithm for PBLH retrieval, decreasing the median difference significantly to −8 m. Further data analysis indicates that these conclusions remain the same for cases with higher or lower cloud fractions, and for decoupled PBLs. These results demonstrate the potential of using HSRL-2 aerosol backscatter data to estimate both marine MLH and PBLH and suggest that lidar-derived MLH should be compared with radiosonde/dropsonde-determined MLH (not PBLH) in general.
Calibration of Optical Particle Spectrometers Using Mounted Fibres
Jessica Girdwood, Harry Ballington, Chris Stopford, Rob Lewis, and Evelyn Hesse
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2024-55,2024
Preprint under review for AMT (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Optical particle spectrometers (OPSs) are a class of instruments, commonly used for measurement of particle size distributions, which require calibration. Conventionally, this is performed using a known aerosol source, which has reliability issues. In this paper, we present a technique for OPS calibration which involves placing objects in the instrument, which generate a known response. The fibre calibration was more reliable when the technique was compared with a conventional calibration.
A Portable Nitrogen Dioxide Instrument Using Cavity-Enhanced Absorption Spectroscopy
Steven A. Bailey, Reem A. Hannun, Andrew K. Swanson, and Thomas F. Hanisco
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2024-61,2024
Preprint under review for AMT (discussion: open, 1 comment)
We have developed a portable, optically based instrument that measures NO2. It consumes less than 6 watts of power so can easily run off a small battery. This instrument has made both balloon and UAV flights. NO2 measurement results compare favorably with other known NO2 instruments. We find this instrument to be stable with repeatable results compared with calibration sources. Materials cost to build a single instrument is around $4 k. This number could be lowered with economies of scale.
Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, 2024
Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth, economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States, is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Automating tephra fall building damage assessment using deep learning
Eleanor Tennant, Susanna F. Jenkins, Victoria Miller, Richard Robertson, Bihan Wen, Sang-Ho Yun, and Benoit Taisne
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-81,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
After a volcanic eruption, assessing building damage quickly is vital for response and recovery. Traditional post-event damage assessment methods such as ground surveys, are often time-consuming and resource-intensive, hindering rapid response and recovery efforts. To overcome this, we have developed an automated approach that uses UAV acquired optical images and deep learning to rapidly generate spatial building damage information.
A methodology to compile multi-hazard interrelationships in a data-scarce setting: an application to Kathmandu Valley, Nepal
Harriet E. Thompson, Joel C. Gill, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Faith E. Taylor, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-101,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
We describe a methodology to systematically gather evidence of the breadth of single natural hazards and their multi-hazard interrelationships in data-scarce urban settings. We apply this methodology to Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, where we find evidence of 21 single hazard types, and 83 multi-hazard interrelationships. This evidence is supplemented with multi-hazard scenarios developed by practitioner stakeholders engaged in disaster risk reduction research and practice in Kathmandu Valley.
Modelling water quantity and quality for integrated water cycle management with the Water Systems Integrated Modelling framework (WSIMOD) software
Barnaby Dobson, Leyang Liu, and Ana Mijic
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4495–4513, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4495-2024, 2024
Water management is challenging when models don't capture the entire water cycle. We propose that using integrated models facilitates management and improves understanding. We introduce a software tool designed for this task. We discuss its foundation, how it simulates water system components and their interactions, and its customisation. We provide a flexible way to represent water systems, and we hope it will inspire more research and practical applications for sustainable water management.
A Unified System for Evaluating, Ranking and Clustering in Diverse Scientific Domains
Zengyun Hu, Xi Chen, Deliang Chen, Zhuo Zhang, Qiming Zhou, and Qingxiang Li
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-82,2024
Preprint under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
ERC firstly unified the evaluating, ranking, and clustering by a simple mathematic equation based on Euclidean Distance. It provides new system to solve the evaluating, ranking, and clustering tasks in SDGs. In fact, ERC system can be applied in any scientific domain.
Abstract
Microbursts are short duration intensifications in precipitating electron flux that are believed to be a significant contributor to electron losses in the magnetosphere. Microbursts have been observed in the form of bouncing electron packets, which offer a unique opportunity to study their properties and importance as a loss process. We present a collection of bouncing microbursts observed by the HILT instrument on SAMPEX from 1994 to 2004. We analyze the locations of the bouncing microbursts in L and MLT and find they align well with the properties of relativistic microbursts as a whole. We find that the majority of bouncing microbursts observed by SAMPEX have scale sizes of ∼30 km at the point of observation, or ∼300 km when mapped to the magnetic equator. The time separation between the peaks of these bouncing microbursts is usually either half a bounce period or a whole bounce period.
Abstract
How induced seismicity in deep geothermal project (enhanced geothermal systems, EGS) is controlled by fluid injection is of central importance for monitoring the related seismic risk. Here we analyze the relationship between the radiated seismic energy and the hydraulic energy related to the fluid injection during several hydraulic stimulations and circulation tests at Soultz-sous-Forêts geothermal site. Based on a harmonized database, we show that the ratio between these energies is at first order constant during stimulations and of the same magnitude independently of the stimulation protocol and injection depth. Re-stimulations are characterized by a sharp evolution of this ratio during injection which ultimately converges to the characteristic value of the reservoir. This supports that the seismicity is caused by the relaxation of the pre-existing strain energy in the stimulated volume, rather than by the deformation generated from fluid injection. The ratio appears as an intrinsic large-scale property of the reservoir that can be assessed at the very beginning of the first stimulation. Based on this property, we suggest a way to predict the largest magnitude of the induced seismic events knowing the maximum targeted hydraulic energy of the injection.
Abstract
Very low-frequency earthquakes (VLFs) are characterized by longer source duration and smaller stress drop than regular earthquakes of similar magnitude. Recent studies have shown their frequent correlation with low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) on shared faults. The underlying source processes governing the occurrence of VLFs and their interaction with LFEs remain elusive. Here, we employ a slip-weakening model for slow earthquakes. By comparing the source parameters of simulations and observations, it is suggested that VLFs are slow self-arresting earthquakes that self-terminate within the nucleation patch. Additionally, we adopt a composite model to reproduce the records of the simultaneous occurrences of a VLF and an LFE in the Nankai area. Our results present the possibility that VLFs, LFEs, and regular earthquakes can be distinguished using a unified dynamic framework.
