JGR–Atmospheres

Future space missions dedicated to measuring CO2 on a global scale can make advantageous use of the O2 band at 1.27 μm to retrieve the air column. The 1.27 μm band is close to the CO2 absorption bands at 1.6 and 2.0 μm, which allows a better transfer of the aerosol properties than with the usual O2 band at 0.76 μm. However, the 1.27 μm band is polluted by the spontaneous dayglow of the excited state O2 (1∆), which must be removed from the observed signal. We investigate here our quantitative understanding of the O2(1∆) dayglow with a chemistry-transport model. We show that the previously reported −13% deficit in O2(1∆) dayglow calculated with the same model is essentially due a −20% to −30% ozone deficit between 45 and 60 km. We find that this ozone deficit is due to excessively high temperatures (+15 K) of the meteorological analyses used to drive the model in the mesosphere. The use of lower analyzed temperatures (ERA5), in better agreement with the observations, slows down the hydrogen-catalyzed and Chapman ozone loss cycles. This effect leads to an almost total elimination of the ozone and O2(1∆) deficits in the lower mesosphere. Once integrated vertically to simulate a nadir measurement, the deficit in modeled O2(1∆) brightness is reduced to −4.2 ± 2.8%. This illustrates the need for accurate mesospheric temperatures for a priori estimations of the O2(1∆) brightness in algorithms using the 1.27 μm band.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the most dominant natural mode of variability in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere (SH). However, both the sign and magnitude of the feedbacks from the diabatic processes, especially those associated with clouds, onto the SAM remain elusive. By applying the cloud locking technique to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) atmosphere model, this study isolates the positive feedback from the cloud radiative effect (CRE) to the SAM. Feedback analysis based on a wave activity-zonal momentum interaction framework corroborates this weak but positive feedback. While the magnitude of the CRE feedback appears to be secondary compared to the feedbacks from the dry and other diabatic processes, the indirect CRE effects through the interaction with other dynamical and thermodynamical processes appear to play as important a role as the direct CRE in the life cycle of the SAM. The cross-EOF analysis further reveals the obstructive effect of the interactive CRE on the propagation mode of the SH zonal wind directly through the CRE wave source and/or indirectly through modulating other diabatic processes. As a result, the propagation mode becomes more persistent and the SAM it represents becomes more predictable when the interactive CRE is disabled by cloud locking. Future efforts on inter-model comparisons of CRE-denial experiments are important to build consensus on the dynamical feedback of CRE.

The hour-to-hour variability of 388 nm aerosol optical depth (AOD) and single scattering albedo (SSA) derived from near UV observations by the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) on the Deep Space Climate Observatory has been evaluated at multiple locations around the world. AOD retrievals by the EPIC near UV algorithm (EPICAERUV) have been compared to ground based AOD measurements at 16 Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) stations representative of the most commonly observed aerosol types over geographic regions in three continents. Obtained results show that, in general, the EPICAERUV algorithm reproduces closely the hour-to-hour AOD variability reported by AERONET ground-truth observations. Although most sites in the analysis show high correlation between the AOD hourly measurements by the ground-based and space-borne measuring techniques. Best algorithm performance is observed in the presence of carbonaceous and desert dust aerosols. The diurnal cycle of the retrieved SSA product was also analyzed. Although, a direct comparison of hourly EPICAERUV retrievals to equivalent ground-based observations was not possible, the satellite result shows that diurnal SSA variability as large as 0.05 can be observed mostly associated with carbonaceous aerosols. EPICAERUV observed diurnal cycle of retrieved AOD on a regional basis was examined for the unusually active seasons of aerosol production of Saharan desert dust aerosols in 2020, and during the 2023 Canadian wildfires. Results presented in this study confirm the EPIC near UV aerosol product is well suited for observing diurnal variability of aerosols and, therefore, it is an important resource for climate and air quality studies.

We observed five clusters of upper-level compact intracloud discharges (CIDs) moving positive charge up over land and over water in Florida. The clusters each contained 3 to 6 CIDs, and the overall cluster duration ranged from 27 to 58 s. On average, the CIDs in a given cluster occurred 11 s apart and were separated by a 3D distance of about 1.5 km. All the clustered CIDs were located above the tropopause and were likely associated with convective surges that penetrated the stratosphere. The average periodicity of CID occurrence within a cluster (every 11 s) was comparable to the periodicity at which the average cluster area is expected to be bombarded by ≥1016 eV cosmic-ray particles (every 5 s). Each of such energetic particles gives rise to a cosmic ray shower (CRS) and, in the presence of sufficiently strong electric field over a sufficiently large distance, to a relativistic runaway electron avalanche (RREA). We infer that each of our upper-level CIDs is likely to be caused by a CRS-RREA traversing, at nearly the speed of light, the electrified overshooting convective surge and triggering, within a few microseconds, a multitude of streamer flashes along its path, over a distance of the order of hundreds of meters (as per the mechanism recently proposed for lightning initiation by Kostinskiy et al., 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033191). The upper-level CID clustering was likely made possible by the recurring action of energetic cosmic rays and the rapid recovery of the negative screening charge layer at stratospheric altitudes.

Precipitation in the Southern Plains of the United States is relatively well depicted by the Community Earth System Model (CESM). However, despite its ability to capture seasonal mean precipitation anomalies, CESM consistently underestimates extreme pluvial and drought events, rendering it an insufficient tool for extending simulation lead times for exceptional events, such as the abnormally dry May 2011, which helped drive Texas into its worst period of drought in more than a century, and the abnormally wet May 2015, which led to widespread flooding in that state. Ensemble-based regional climate experiments are completed for the two extreme years using Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and downscaled from CESM. WRF simulations are at convection-permitting grid resolution for improved physical representation of simulated precipitation over the Southern Great Plains. By integrating convection-permitting models (CPMs) into each individual member of a CESM ocean data assimilation ensemble, this study demonstrates that high-resolution dynamical downscaling can improve model skillfulness at capturing these two events and is thus a potentially useful tool for forecasting extremely high and extremely low precipitation events at subseasonal or even seasonal lead times.

The surface temperature-mediated change in cloud properties, referred to as the cloud feedback, continues to dominate the uncertainty in climate projections. A larger number of contemporary global climate models (GCMs) project a higher degree of warming than the previous generation of GCMs. This greater projected warming has been attributed to a less negative cloud feedback in the Southern Ocean. Here, we apply a novel “double decomposition method” that employs the “cloud radiative kernel” and “cloud regime” concepts, to two data sets of satellite observations to decompose the interannual cloud feedback into contributions arising from changes within and shifts between cloud morphologies. Our results show that contributions from the latter to the cloud feedback are large for certain regimes. We then focus on interpreting how both changes within and between cloud morphologies impact the shortwave cloud optical depth feedback over the Southern Ocean in light of additional observations. Results from the former cloud morphological changes reveal the importance of the wind response to warming increases low- and mid-level cloud optical thickness in the same region. Results from the latter cloud morphological changes reveal that a general shift from thick storm-track clouds to thinner oceanic low-level clouds contributes to a positive feedback over the Southern Ocean that is offset by shifts from thinner broken clouds to thicker mid- and low-level clouds. Our novel analysis can be applied to evaluate GCMs and potentially diagnose shortcomings pertaining to their physical parameterizations of particular cloud morphologies.

Temperature measurements by zenith-pointing ground-based Rayleigh lidars are often used to detect middle atmospheric gravity waves. In time-height diagrams of temperature perturbations, stationary mountain waves are identifiable by horizontal phase lines. Vertically tilted phase lines, on the other hand, indicate that the wave source or the propagation conditions are transient. Idealized numerical simulations illustrate that and how a wave source moving in the direction of the mean wind entails upward-tilted phase lines. The inclination angle depends on the horizontal wavelength and the wave source’s propagation speed. On this basis, the goal is to identify and characterize non-orographic gravity waves (NOGWs) from propagating sources, for example, upper-level jet/front systems, in simulated lidar observations and actual Rayleigh lidar measurements. Compositions of selected atmospheric variables from a meteorological forecast or reanalysis are thoughtfully combined to associate NOGWs with processes in the troposphere and stratosphere. For a virtual observation over the Southern Ocean, upward-tilted phase lines indeed dominate the time-height diagram during the passage of an upper-level trough. The example also emphasizes that temporal filtering of temperature measurements is appropriate for NOGWs, especially in the presence of a strong polar night jet that implies large vertical wavelengths. During two selected observational periods of the COmpact Rayleigh Autonomous Lidar (CORAL) in the lee of the southern Andes, upward-tilted phase lines are mainly associated with mountain waves and transient background wind conditions. One nighttime measurement by CORAL coincides with the passage of an upper-level trough, but large-amplitude mountain waves superpose the small-amplitude NOGWs in the middle atmosphere.

In this study, a process-based lake model is used to investigate the influence of climate change on the thermodynamics of 30 large lakes over Tibetan Plateau (TP). The lake model was driven by the atmospheric forcing derived from the bias-corrected projections of three global climate models in the twenty-first century under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The hindcasts during 2000–2014 can reasonably capture the seasonality and magnitude of satellite retrieved lake surface temperature (LST). Future projections during 2015–2100 suggest a widespread increased LST, declined ice cover, and prolonged stratification, with the severity of changes in line with the climate driver shifts under different SSPs. Under the scenario with the highest level of anthropogenic radiative forcing (SSP5-8.5), the end-of-century (2086–2100) changes of LST, ice thickness, and stratification duration averaged across all studied lakes reach 4.90°C, −0.43 m, and 65.46 days, respectively. Note that the positive ice-albedo feedback can cause excess lake warming by accelerating ice break-up (30.07 days earlier) and stratification onset (46.83 days earlier). By the end of this century, more frequent, multi-seasonal thermal extremes are anticipated to push nearly half of the studied lakes into a permanent heatwave state. Together with the remarkable LST increase and winter ice loss, the lakes will mix less frequently and may shift from a dimictic to warm monomict mixing regime. Hopefully, the irreversible thermal changes can be avoided if the anthropogenic radiative forcing is controlled within the envelope outlined by the stringent climate mitigation scenario SSP1-2.6.

The South China coast (SCC) experiences frequent heavy rainfall during the warm season (May–September). Objective classification analysis on 925-hPa geopotential height shows that the majority of warm-season precipitation (>80%) occurs under three typical synoptic patterns: the southerly monsoon pattern (P1), the southwesterly monsoon pattern (P2), and the low-level vortex pattern (P3). Using 20 years of satellite observations and cloud tracking, this study highlights that mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) play a pivotal role in generating precipitation under all three synoptic patterns, while the initiation and rainfall characteristics of MCSs are strongly modulated by the background synoptic circulations. The diurnal MCS precipitation under P1 and P2 is predominantly influenced by land-sea breeze circulation, which is characterized by a morning offshore propagation and an afternoon onshore propagation. The rainfall propagation speeds, however, are strongly modulated by the prevailing low-level monsoonal flows. Under P3, MCS precipitation initiates near the coast around midnight and then propagates offshore, merging with the widespread offshore precipitation. The analysis also shows that the majority of MCSs contributing to SCC warm-season precipitation were locally initiated. This underscores the critical role of locally initiated MCSs in driving the SCC precipitation characteristics, as opposed to propagating MCSs. Statistical correlation analysis further indicates that the precipitation area and intensity of locally initiated MCSs are closely related to the lower-tropospheric moisture transport and the convective available potential energy over the upstream South China Sea, and the deep-layer wind shear (from surface to 400-hPa) over the SCC.

During atmospheric river (AR) landfalls on the Antarctic ice sheet, the high waviness of the circumpolar polar jet stream allows for subtropical air masses to be advected toward the Antarctic coastline. These rare but high-impact AR events are highly consequential for the Antarctic mass balance; yet little is known about the various atmospheric dynamical components determining their life cycle. By using an AR detection algorithm to retrieve AR landfalls at Dumont d'Urville and non-AR analogs based on 700 hPa geopotential height, we examined what makes AR landfalls unique and studied the complete life cycle of ARs reaching Dumont d'Urville. ARs form in the mid-latitudes/subtropics in areas of high surface evaporation, likely in response to tropical deep convection anomalies. These convection anomalies likely lead to Rossby wave trains that help amplify the upper-tropospheric flow pattern. As the AR approaches Antarctica, condensation of isentropically lifted moisture causes latent heat release that—in conjunction with poleward warm air advection—induces geopotential height rises and anticyclonic upper-level potential vorticity tendencies downstream. As evidenced by a blocking index, these tendencies lead to enhanced ridging/blocking that persist beyond the AR landfall time, sustaining warm air advection onto the ice sheet. Finally, we demonstrate a connection between tropopause polar vortices and mid-latitude cyclogenesis in an AR case study. Overall, the non-AR analogs reveal that the amplified jet pattern observed during AR landfalls is a result of enhanced poleward moisture transport and associated diabatic heating which is likely impossible to replicate without strong moisture transport.

Surface wind divergence is largely modulated by the sea surface temperature (SST) gradient through vertical momentum mixing and pressure adjustment. Here, the two mechanisms affecting the coupling strength between SST gradient and surface wind divergence are examined during an atmospheric front passage in the Southern Ocean. This event is also recorded by an uncrewed surface vehicle (USV). The reanalysis product (ERA5) revealed that downward momentum mixing is the dominant mechanism on the daily time scale. The coupling strength during the day when the atmospheric front passed over declined by 75%, compared to the adjacent days. This implies that the atmospheric front can partially attenuate the SST gradient effect on the surface wind divergence. Furthermore, a decade-long statistic also showed a decreasing trend of SST-wind coupling when the atmospheric fronts occur more. Additionally, after removing the mesoscale weather variation, the USV observations showed a remarkable SST imprint on the atmospheric boundary layer in the oceanic submesoscale regime, which denotes the scale below the deformation radius (∼16 km). The submesoscale air-sea interaction processes also displayed decreased air-sea coupling strength during atmospheric front passage. This is possible as the vertical velocity induced by the atmospheric front can compensate for the daily averaged uprising vertical velocity due to surface wind convergence. This analysis indicates that the atmospheric front can diminish the coupling between the SST gradient and surface wind divergence, which contrasts the existing statistical results showing that atmospheric fronts tend to enhance such coupling.

During past glacial-interglacial cycles, the boreal summer insolation is the most crucial external forcing for climate change. However, the question of whether summer insolation is a key forcing on temperatures in the boreal tropics remains under debate, hampering our understanding of climate change at low latitudes. To shed further light on this issue, we performed a series of equilibrium simulations with the NorESM-L model over the past 425 ka. Our simulations show that in the boreal tropical monsoon region, the simulated annual temperature is anti-phased towards the boreal summer insolation. This antiphase relation is also supported by some available geological data. Additional diagnostic analyses reveal that the tropical warmth throughout the year is more reliant on winter temperatures than on summer temperatures. This stands in contrast to the situation in middle to high latitudes, particularly in the Mediterranean region. Further correlation analysis and spectrum analysis suggest that the annual temperature in boreal tropics is highly linked to local winter insolation. Our results highlight complex hydrothermal configurations in the boreal tropics, suggesting a decoupling of temperature and precipitation. Specifically, variations in annual temperature and precipitation in the boreal tropics are driven by distinct patterns of seasonal insolation. We deduce that the unique hydrothermal configurations in North Africa may have influenced the dispersal of early humans out of Africa.

Residential biomass burning significantly contributes to air pollution in developing countries. However, the microscopic properties of individual particles in their emissions have not been well understood. In this study, individual primary particles from 14 kinds of biomass fuels (including firewood, crop residue, and animal dung) were collected in laboratory and field measurements, and their morphology, composition and mixing state were acquired using transmission electron microscope. These results constitute a source profile database of individual primary particles from residential biomass burning. The database reveals that different types of biomass fuels exhibit different emission characteristics, that is, residential firewood burning mainly emits pure carbonaceous particles (including organic matter (OM) and soot particles), crop residue burning mainly emits K-containing particles (including OM-K, soot(-OM)-K, and K-rich particles), and animal dung burning mainly emits pure carbonaceous particles and K-containing particles. Moreover, our results indicate that the emission characteristics obtained from laboratory and field measurements are different. Field measurements conducted in two selected villages in North China Plain exhibit a higher presence of soot particles compared to laboratory measurements, owing to their higher combustion temperatures. In contrast, field measurements conducted in one selected village in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau contain less soot particles than those from laboratory measurements in plain areas, due to the deficient oxygen supply during combustion process in the high-altitude regions. These results warn us that the emission estimation from residential biomass burning should notice the large emission differences among different biomass types and between field and laboratory measurements.

This study examines the spatial distribution and temporal variations of low-cloud top over the subtropical northeast Pacific (NEP), using observations from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO). A comparison between CALIPSO observations and in-situ soundings reveals a distinct bimodal distribution of low-cloud tops, characterized by peaks near the inversion base and transition layer, corresponding to shallow cumulus clouds below the stratocumulus deck and boundary-layer decoupling phenomena. Climatologically, while traversing along a great circle from Los Angeles to Honolulu, the frequency of low cloud occurrence experiences a gradual reduction from 80% to 30%. Meanwhile, cloud top height increases from 0.6 to 1.6 km, and surface roughness varies from 50 to 300 m. This study marks the first presentation of long-term characteristics of low clouds over a vast, remote area, expanding beyond discrete field campaign observations. Accurately characterizing the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) including its depth and degree of decoupling, enables further investigation into the interannual variations of low clouds, using 14 years of CALIPSO observations. Significant interannual variability in areal fraction and vertical bimodality of low clouds emerges downstream of the anomalously cold water; increased cloud cover with weakened bimodality is associated with a shallow weakly decoupled MABL. This research emphasizes the need to consider the downstream effects in studying low cloud-sea surface temperature feedback within climate models.

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are clusters of thunderstorms that are important in Earth's water and energy cycle. Additionally, they are responsible for extreme events such as large hail, strong winds, and extreme precipitation. Automated object-based analyses that track MCSs have become popular since they allow us to identify and follow MCSs over their entire life cycle in a Lagrangian framework. This rise in popularity was accompanied by an increasing number of MCS tracking algorithms, however, little is known about how sensitive analyses are concerning the MCS tracker formulation. Here, we assess differences between six MCS tracking algorithms on South American MCS characteristics and evaluate MCSs in kilometer-scale simulations with observational-based MCSs over 3 years. All trackers are run with a common set of MCS classification criteria to isolate tracker formulation differences. The tracker formulation substantially impacts MCS characteristics such as frequency, size, duration, and contribution to total precipitation. The evaluation of simulated MCS characteristics is less sensitive to the tracker formulation and all trackers agree that the model can capture MCS characteristics well across different South American climate zones. Dominant sources of uncertainty are the segmentation of cloud systems in space and time and the treatment of how MCSs are linked in time. Our results highlight that comparing MCS analyses that use different tracking algorithms is challenging. We provide general guidelines on how MCS characteristics compare between trackers to facilitate a more robust assessment of MCS statistics in future studies.

Contributions of the resolved waves and parameterized gravity waves to changes in the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in a future simulation (2015–2100) under the SSP370 scenario are investigated using the Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2) with enhanced vertical resolution and are compared with those from four CESM2 historical simulations (1979–2014). The maximum QBO amplitude of the future simulation is 26.0 m s−1, which is slightly less than that of the historical simulations (27.4–29.3 m s−1). However, the QBO period in the future simulation is much shorter: 21.6 months in the early-future (2015–2050) and 12 months in the late-future (2065–2100) period, than in the historical simulations (23.5–30.9 months). The shortened QBO period in the future is primarily due to increases in both resolved wave forcing and parameterized gravity wave drag (GWD) in the stratosphere, with a more significant contribution by the GWD. As convective activity becomes stronger in the future simulation, the momentum flux of parameterized convective gravity waves at the cloud top increases, resulting in stronger GWD in the stratosphere. The increases in the magnitude of westward GWD dominate those of eastward GWD in the stratosphere. This is due to a significant increase in westward momentum flux in the troposphere, especially during the descending easterly QBO, and enhanced westerlies in the lowermost stratosphere, which introduces a westward anomaly. For the resolved waves, Kelvin wave forcing is a key contributor to increased eastward forcing in the future simulation, with relatively minor contributions by other equatorial planetary waves.

Quantifying the elevation dependency of radiation partitioning in high-altitude mountains is crucial for projecting regional energy balance while remains highly uncertain. We compared the surface radiation partitioning parameters across a meadow (3,200 m), shrub (3,400 m), and forb (3,600 m) along a southern slope of the Qilian Mountains. At a daily scale, the downward shortwave radiation (R s) fluctuated minimally among the grassland types probably induced by similar site orientations. The greatest downward and upward longwave radiation (L d and L u) happened at the lowest meadow while the largest net shortwave (S n) and longwave (L n) radiation occurred at the deciduous shrub. The net all-wave radiation (R n ) of the meadow and shrub was similar and exceeded that of the forb by ∼20%. The differences in R n between the sites were jointly explained by those of upward shortwave radiation (R u) and L u, more than by R s and L d, suggesting the importance of surface attributes. The monthly normalized effective terrestrial radiation (λ, the ratio of L n to R s) varied insignificantly among the sites and averaged 0.25 ± 0.05, which was comparable to the global mean value (0.26). The smallest surface albedo (α, the ratio of R u to R s) and largest radiation efficiency (η, the ratio of R n to R s) were 0.13 ± 0.02 and 0.64 ± 0.09, respectively, both at the shrub. Grassland type dominated the spatial variations of monthly α and η. These findings highlighted the importance of grassland types to explain the spatiotemporal variations of radiation partitioning parameters in high-altitude alpine grasslands.

The limited capabilities of global climate models in simulating mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) restrict our understanding of how global warming impacts MCSs. This study uses a high-resolution numerical model with large-ensemble experiments to simulate MCSs during the record-breaking extreme rainfall event in Henan Province, China, in July 2021. We compare the changes in the MCS's strength, size, and structure in a real-world simulation (RW) and a 0.8°C colder simulation (analog to no-anthropogenic-warming-world simulation, short for NAWW) to assess the response of MCSs to global warming. Our results show that the total rainfall from the MCS increased by 10.0% in RW compared to NAWW, with a 3.1% increase in area and a 6.7% increase in rainfall intensity. The development of MCS becomes more rapid in response to warming since the pre-industrial era. The warmer and wetter climate results in higher convective available potential energy, and accelerates the MCS growth, but then the narrower low-convective inhibition regions suppress the continuous growth of MCS. During the mature phase, the maximum hourly rainfall intensity (P max) can increase by up to 26.5%/K, while P max locations can either remain unchanged or shift depending on the interaction of flows and terrains. These results highlight varying responses of MCSs to global warming during its different stages and provide valuable insights into the changing characteristics of extreme rainfall events under global warming.

The historic 22–26 May 2015 flood event in Texas and Oklahoma was caused by anomalous clustered mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that produced record-breaking rainfall and $3 billion of damage in the region. A month-long regional convection-permitting simulation is conducted to reconstruct multiple clustered MCSs that lead to this flood event. We further use the pseudo global warming approach to examine how a similar event may unfold in a warmer climate and the driving physical factors for the changes. Tracking of MCSs in observations and simulations shows that the historical simulation reproduces the salient characteristics of the observed MCSs. In a warmer climate under a high-emission (SSP5-8.5) scenario, the Southern Great Plains is projected to experience a near surface warming of 4–6 K, accompanied by enhanced moisture transport by the strengthened Great Plains low-level jet. A warmer and moister lower troposphere leads to 36%–59% larger convective available potential energy, supporting wider and more intense convective updrafts and rainfall production. Consistently, MCSs have wider convective areas and stronger rainfall intensities, producing 50% larger rain volumes during the mature stage. Extreme (99.5%) MCS rainfall frequency and amount will increase by threefold. However, MCS stratiform rain area decreases as a result of elevated stratiform cloud bases that lead to stronger sublimation and evaporation of precipitation in response to warming, resulting in reduced weak-to-moderate surface precipitation. Results suggest that global warming greatly increases precipitation intensity of clustered MCS events under strong synoptic influence, with much higher potential to produce serious floods without additional climate adaptation.

Satellites in Earth's orbit are exposed to Earth radiation, consisting of reflected solar and emitted thermal radiation, thereby exerting a non-conservative force that causes acceleration and affects the orbits. Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO) mission aiming to retrieve the Earth's gravity potential is critically dependent on accounting for this force and all other non-gravitational forces. There are both diurnal and seasonal variations in the Earth's radiation pressure, of which the seasonal variability can be represented by climatology. Nevertheless, the daily variations in the Earth's radiation pressure, due to the transient changes in the weather; for example, clouds and their properties, are not accounted for in the orbit perturbations studies. We show here that the top-of-atmosphere radiation fluxes computed with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model explain most of the measured short-term variations in the radial acceleration of the GRACE-FO satellite. Our physics-based modeling corrects a hitherto unexplained lack of power spectral density in the measured accelerations. For example, we can accurately model the accelerations associated with a tropical storm in the Indian Ocean in December 2020, which would not be possible when using climatological data. Our results demonstrate that using a global numerical weather prediction model significantly improves the simulation of non-gravitational effects in the satellites' orbits. In the 7-day data set, OpenIFS-simulated acceleration exhibited higher accuracy than climatological-data-simulated acceleration (2.5 compared to 2.6 nms−2) and an improved precision (2.6 compared to 3.0 nms−2). This advancement contributes to a more precise orbit determination across various applications in Earth sciences.