Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

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Combined list of the recent articles of the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences and the recent discussion forum Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions
Updated: 4 hours 29 min ago

Ensemble models from machine learning: an example of wave runup and coastal dune erosion

5 hours 51 min ago
Ensemble models from machine learning: an example of wave runup and coastal dune erosion
Tomas Beuzen, Evan B. Goldstein, and Kristen D. Splinter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2295–2309, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2295-2019, 2019
Wave runup is important for characterizing coastal vulnerability to wave action; however, it is complex and uncertain to predict. We use machine learning with a high-resolution dataset of wave runup to develop an accurate runup predictor that includes prediction uncertainty. We show how uncertainty in wave runup predictions can be used practically in a model of dune erosion to make ensemble predictions that provide more information and greater predictive skill than a single deterministic model.

Bias correction of gauge-based gridded product to improve extreme precipitation analysis in the Yarlung Tsangpo-Brahmaputra River Basin

5 hours 51 min ago
Bias correction of gauge-based gridded product to improve extreme precipitation analysis in the Yarlung Tsangpo-Brahmaputra River Basin
Xian Luo, Xuemei Fan, Yungang Li, and Xuan Ji
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-327,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
In this study, we corrected Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) in the Yarlung Tsangpo-Brahmaputra River Basin using both linear and nonlinear methods, and their influences on resulting extreme precipitation analysis were assessed. Results showed that all methods were able to correct mean precipitation, but their ability to correct wet-day frequency and coefficient of variation were markedly different.

Identifying a transition climate zone in an arid river basin using the evaporative stress index

Thu, 10/17/2019 - 17:48
Identifying a transition climate zone in an arid river basin using the evaporative stress index
Yongqiang Liu, Lu Hao, Decheng Zhou, Cen Pan, Peilong Liu, Zhe Xiong, and Ge Sun
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2281–2294, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2281-2019, 2019
A transition zone often exists between a moist upper river reach and an arid lower reach in a watershed with complex topography. This zone is more suitable for human activities but is difficult to identify in climate classification. We found that a hydrological index overpowers a meteorological index in identifying a transition zone of a watershed in northwestern China, indicating the important role of the land-surface processes and human disturbances in formulating the transition zone.

Invited perspectives: How machine learning will change flood risk and impact assessment

Wed, 10/16/2019 - 17:48
Invited perspectives: How machine learning will change flood risk and impact assessment
Dennis Wagenaar, Alex Curran, Mariano Balbi, Alok Bhardwaj, Robert Soden, Emir Hartato, Gizem Mestav Sarica, Laddaporn Ruangpan, Giuseppe Molinario, and David Lallemant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-341,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This invited perspective paper adresses how machine learning may change flood risk and impact assessments. It goes through different modelling components and provide an analysis of how current assessments are done without machine learning, current applications of machine learning and potential future improvements. It is based on a 2 week long intensive collaboration among experts from around the world during the Understanding Risk Field lab on urban flooding in June 2019.

Assessing Transportation Vulnerability to Tsunamis: Utilising Post-event Field Data from the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami, Japan, and the 2015 Illapel Tsunami, Chile

Wed, 10/16/2019 - 17:48
Assessing Transportation Vulnerability to Tsunamis: Utilising Post-event Field Data from the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami, Japan, and the 2015 Illapel Tsunami, Chile
James H. Williams, Thomas M. Wilson, Nick Horspool, Ryan Paulik, Liam Wotherspoon, Emily M. Lane, and Matthew W. Hughes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-332,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Post-event field survey data from two tsunami events, the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami, Japan, and the 2015 Illapel Tsunami, Chile, are used in this study to develop fragility functions for roads and bridges. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of supplementing post-event field surveys with remotely sensed data. The resulting fragility functions address a considerable research gap in tsunami impacts on infrastructure, and include a range of subtleties in asset and hazard characteristics.

Assessment of the physical vulnerability of buildings affected by slow-moving landslides

Wed, 10/16/2019 - 17:48
Assessment of the physical vulnerability of buildings affected by slow-moving landslides
Qin Chen, Lixia Chen, Lei Gui, Kunlong Yin, Dhruba Pikha Shrestha, Juan Du, and Xuelian Cao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-318,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Previous studies have focused on generalized vulnerability assessment from landslides or other types of slope failures, such as debris flow and rockfall. The proposed study establishes a three-step approach to investigate the physical vulnerability of buildings affected by slow-moving landslides. Herein, good consistency between the estimated building physical vulnerability and on-field damage evidence was found.

Runup, Inundation, and Sediment Characteristics of 22 December 2018 Indonesia Sunda Strait Tsunami

Wed, 10/16/2019 - 17:48
Runup, Inundation, and Sediment Characteristics of 22 December 2018 Indonesia Sunda Strait Tsunami
Wahyu Widiyanto, Wei-Cheng Lian, Shih-Chun Hsiao, Purwanto B. Santoso, and Rudy T. Imananta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-325,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This article reports the results of a field survey carried out in the disaster area of December 2018 Sunda Strait tsunami, Indonesia. It provides data covering run-up heights, inundations, tsunami directions, and sediment characteristics. The data can be used for validation of hydrodynamic models and they contribute to a better understanding of the Sunda Strait tsunami caused by Anak Krakatau volcano. In addition, they are important for spatial planning and mitigation effort.

Hydrogeomorphological analysis and modelling for a comprehensive understanding of flash-flood damaging processes: The 9th October 2018 event in North-eastern Mallorca

Tue, 10/15/2019 - 17:48
Hydrogeomorphological analysis and modelling for a comprehensive understanding of flash-flood damaging processes: The 9th October 2018 event in North-eastern Mallorca
Joan Estrany, Maurici Ruiz-Pérez, Raphael Mutzner, Josep Fortesa, Beatriz Nácher-Rodríguez, Miquel Tomàs-Burguera, Julián García-Comendador, Xavier Peña, Adolfo Calvo-Cases, and Francisco J. Vallés-Morán
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-304,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
A catastrophic flash-flood event hit in 2018 the northeastern part of Mallorca Island, causing 13 casualties and impacting on the international opinion in one of the most important tourist resorts. The analysis of the rainfall-runoff processes illustrated an unprecedented flashy behaviour in Europe triggering the natural disaster. UAVs and hydrogeomorphological precision techniques were used as a rapid post-catastrophe decision-making tool, playing a key role during the rescue searching tasks.

A statistical-parametric model of tropical cyclones for hazard assessment

Tue, 10/15/2019 - 17:48
A statistical-parametric model of tropical cyclones for hazard assessment
William C. Arthur
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-192,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
We have developed a statistical-parametric model of tropical cyclones (TCs), to undertake hazard and risk assessments at continental scales. The model enables users to build an understanding of the likelihood and magnitude of TC-related wind speeds across full ocean basins, but at a fine spatial resolution. The model can also be applied to single events, either scenarios or forecast events, to inform detailed impact assessments.

Evidence of preliminary prognosis of appearance of catastrophic earthquake and strong tsunami in the region of Tarapacá, Chile

Tue, 10/15/2019 - 17:48
Evidence of preliminary prognosis of appearance of catastrophic earthquake and strong tsunami in the region of Tarapacá, Chile
Raissa K. Mazova, Jorge F. Van Den Bosch, Natalia A. Baranova, and Gustavo A. Oses
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-278,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
The 2014 tsunami off the coast of northern Chile are analyzed, knowing that there have been very destructive pan-oceanic tsunamis in the past, It was also forecast in 1999, this tsunami has been simulated taking into account two movements of the seabed, one as a single block and the second as several blocks, as a result it can be seen that the second way of simulating is closer to the measures recorded by tide gauges, also the spectral analysis allowed knowing the characteristics of the flood.

Effects of high-resolution geostationary satellite imagery on the predictability of tropical thunderstorms over Southeast Asia

Fri, 10/11/2019 - 17:48
Effects of high-resolution geostationary satellite imagery on the predictability of tropical thunderstorms over Southeast Asia
Kwonmin Lee, Hye-Sil Kim, and Yong-Sang Choi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2241–2248, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2241-2019, 2019
This study examined the advances in the predictability of thunderstorms using geostationary satellite imageries. Our present results show that by using the latest geostationary satellite data (with a resolution of 2 km and 10 min), thunderstorms can be predicted 90–180 min ahead of their mature state. These data can capture the rapidly growing cloud tops before the cloud moisture falls as precipitation and enable prompt preparation and the mitigation of hazards.

Geologic and geomorphic controls on rockfall hazard: how well do past rockfalls predict future distributions?

Fri, 10/11/2019 - 17:48
Geologic and geomorphic controls on rockfall hazard: how well do past rockfalls predict future distributions?
Josh Borella, Mark Quigley, Zoe Krauss, Krystina Lincoln, Januka Attanayake, Laura Stamp, Henry Lanman, Stephanie Levine, Sam Hampton, and Darren Gravley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2249–2280, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2249-2019, 2019
Here we evaluate geologic, geomorphic, and anthropogenic controls on rockfall hazard and highlight the complexity of interpreting future rockfall hazard based on former boulder distributions. To evaluate how past rockfall deposits relate to contemporary rockfall hazard, we mapped then compared the locations, physical characteristics, and lithologies of rockfall boulders deposited during the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence (n = 185) with their prehistoric counterparts (n = 1093).

InSAR technique applied to the monitoring of the Qinghai–Tibet Railway

Thu, 10/10/2019 - 17:48
InSAR technique applied to the monitoring of the Qinghai–Tibet Railway
Qingyun Zhang, Yongsheng Li, Jingfa Zhang, and Yi Luo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2229–2240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2229-2019, 2019
Before the opening of the railway, the deformation of the Qinghai–Tibet Railway was very small and considered stable. After opening, the overall stability of the railway section was good. The main deformation areas are concentrated in the areas where railway lines turn and geological disasters are concentrated. In order to ensure the safety of railway operation, it is necessary to carry out long-term time series observation along the Qinghai–Tibet Railway.

The influence of land use and land cover change on landslide susceptibility: a case study in Zhushan Town, Xuan'en County (Hubei, China)

Thu, 10/10/2019 - 17:48
The influence of land use and land cover change on landslide susceptibility: a case study in Zhushan Town, Xuan'en County (Hubei, China)
Lixia Chen, Zizheng Guo, Kunlong Yin, Dhruba Pikha Shrestha, and Shikuan Jin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2207–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2207-2019, 2019
The study aims to evaluate the influence of land use and land cover change on landslide susceptibility at a regional scale, based on the application of Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) technologies. The specific objective is to answer the following question: which land cover/land use change poses the highest risk so that mitigation measures can be implemented in time?

The sensitivity of intense rainfall to aerosol particle loading – a comparison of bin-resolved microphysics modelling with observations of heavy precipitation from HyMeX IOP7a

Thu, 10/10/2019 - 17:48
The sensitivity of intense rainfall to aerosol particle loading – a comparison of bin-resolved microphysics modelling with observations of heavy precipitation from HyMeX IOP7a
Christina Kagkara, Wolfram Wobrock, Céline Planche, and Andrea Flossmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-321,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Over the Cévennes-Vivarais region in southern France five hour intensive rainfall covering an area of 1000 km2 with more than 50 mm rain accumulation was observed during IOP7a of HyMeX. This study evaluates the performance of a bin resolved cloud model for simulating this heavy precipitation event. The simulation results were compared with observations of rain accumulation, radar reflectivity, temporal and spatial evolution of precipitation, 5 minutes rain rates and raindrop size distributions.

Environmental controls on surf zone injuries on high-energy beaches

Wed, 10/09/2019 - 17:48
Environmental controls on surf zone injuries on high-energy beaches
Bruno Castelle, Tim Scott, Rob Brander, Jak McCarroll, Arthur Robinet, Eric Tellier, Elias de Korte, Bruno Simonnet, and Louis-Rachid Salmi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2183–2205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2183-2019, 2019
For the first time we explore the influence of environmental conditions (wave and weather conditions, tide elevation, and beach morphology) on surf zone injuries (e.g. drowning incidents, spine injuries). Serious injuries are caused by the two primary hazards found along high-energy surf beaches: shore-break waves and narrow seaward-flowing rip currents, which have different environmental controls. Results have strong implications for future beach safety management and education of beach users.

Synoptic and Mesoscale atmospheric features associated with an extreme Snowstorm over the Central Andes in August 2013

Wed, 10/09/2019 - 17:48
Synoptic and Mesoscale atmospheric features associated with an extreme Snowstorm over the Central Andes in August 2013
Marcelo Zamuriano, Paul Froidevaux, Isabel Moreno, Mathias Vuille, and Stefan Brönnimann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-286,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)

We study the synoptic and mesoscale characteristics of a snowfall event over the Bolivian Altiplano in August 2013 that caused severe damage to people, infrastructure and livestock. This event was associated with a cold front episode following the eastern slope of the Andes-Amazon interface and a cut-off low pressure system (COL) over the Pacific Ocean. Large scale analyses suggest a two-stage mechanism: The first phase consisted of a strong cold surge to the east of the Andes inducing low level blocking of southward moisture transport over the SW Amazon basin due to post-frontal high-pressure up to 500 hPa synchronized to a Rossby wave train. The second stage was initiated by the displacement of 500 hPa anticyclone over the Andes due to a Rossby wave passage and a subsequent increase in north-easterly moisture transport, while another cold front along the eastern Andes provided additional lifting. We analyse an analog event (July 2010) to confirm the influence of these large-scale features on snow formation.

We conduct a mesoscale analysis using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. For this purpose, we perform a series of high-resolution numerical experiments that include sensitivity studies where we apply orographic and lake Titicaca temperature modifications. We compare our findings to MODIS snow cover estimates and in-situ measurements. The control simulation is able to capture the snow cover spatial distribution and sheds light over several aspects of the snowfall dynamics. In our WRF simulations, daytime snowfall mainly occurs around complex orography whereas nocturnal snowfall is concentrated over the plateau due to a combination of nocturnal winds and complex orography inside the plateau. The sensitivity experiments indicate the importance of the lake and mountain for thermal wind circulation affecting the spatial distribution of snowfall by shifting the position of the convergence zones. The influence of the lake's thermal effect is not evident around the regions surrounding the lake.

Assessing potential storm tide inundation hazard under climate change: a case study of Southeast China coast

Wed, 10/09/2019 - 17:48
Assessing potential storm tide inundation hazard under climate change: a case study of Southeast China coast
Bingchuan Nie, Qingyong Wuxi, Jiachun Li, and Feng Xu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-284,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
For storm surge, the most hazardous coastal event, the challenge of climate change effect should be dealt with urgently. A methodology integrating trend analysis, numerical analysis and GIS-based analysis is proposed for assessing the storm tide inundation under Tropical Cyclone Intensification and Sea Level Rise. The inundation details of the hardest hit regions are provided quantitatively. Comparison shows that TCI and SLR can deteriorate the risks remarkably, e.g. double the inundation area.

Extreme waves analysis based on atmospheric patterns classification: an application along the Italian coast

Wed, 10/09/2019 - 17:48
Extreme waves analysis based on atmospheric patterns classification: an application along the Italian coast
Francesco De Leo, Sebastián Solari, and Giovanni Besio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-320,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)

The identification of homogeneous populations of data prior to perform Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) is advisable in all fields of sciences. When performing EVA on sea storms, it is also recommended to have an insight on the atmospheric processes behind the occurrence of the extremes, as this might facilitate the interpretation and ultimately use of the results. In this work, a bottom-up approach for the identification and classification of the atmospheric processes producing extreme wave conditions is revisited, and applied to several locations among the Italian buoy network. A methodology is given for classifying samples of significant wave height peaks in homogeneous subsets, and for the computation of the overall extreme values distribution starting from the distributions fitted to each single subset. From the obtained results, it is concluded that the proposed methodology is capable of identifying clearly differentiated subsets driven by homogeneous atmospheric processes, and it allows to estimate high return-period quantiles consistent with those resulting from the usual EVA. Two well-known cyclonic systems are identified as most likely responsible of the extreme conditions detected in the investigated locations. These systems are analysed in the context of the Mediterranean sea atmospheric climatology, and compared with those figured out by previous researches developed in similar frameworks.

Have trends changed over time? A study of UK peak flow data and sensitivity to observation period

Tue, 10/08/2019 - 17:48
Have trends changed over time? A study of UK peak flow data and sensitivity to observation period
Adam Griffin, Gianni Vesuviano, and Elizabeth Stewart
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2157–2167, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2157-2019, 2019
Classical statistical methods for flood frequency estimation assume flooding characteristics do not change over time. Recent focus on climate change has raised questions of the validity of such assumptions. Near-natural catchments are used to focus on climate (not land-use) change, investigating the sensitivity of trend estimates to the period of record. Some key statistics were very sensitive, but conclusive spatial patterns were not found. Smaller floods were most affected by these trends.

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