Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

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Combined list of the recent articles of the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences and the recent discussion forum Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions
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Review article: The spatial dimension in the assessment of urban socio-economic vulnerability related to geohazards

Fri, 06/05/2020 - 18:54
Review article: The spatial dimension in the assessment of urban socio-economic vulnerability related to geohazards
Diana Contreras, Alondra Chamorro, and Sean Wilkinson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1663–1687, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1663-2020, 2020
The socio-economic condition of the population determines their vulnerability to earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, landslides, soil erosion and land degradation. This condition is estimated mainly from population censuses. The lack to access to basic services, proximity to hazard zones, poverty and population density highly influence the vulnerability of communities. Mapping the location of this vulnerable population makes it possible to prevent and mitigate their risk.

Brief communication: Seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta

Fri, 06/05/2020 - 18:54
Brief communication: Seasonal prediction of salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta
Heiko Apel, Mai Khiem, Nguyen Hong Quan, and To Quang Toan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1609–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1609-2020, 2020
This study deals with salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta, a pressing issue in the third-largest river delta on Earth. It presents a simple, efficient, and cross-validated seasonal forecast model for salinity intrusion during the dry season based on logistic regression using ENSO34 or standardized streamflow indexes as predictors. The model performs exceptionally well, enabling a reliable forecast of critical salinity threshold exceedance up to 9 months prior to the dry season.

Seismic hazard maps of Peshawar District for various return periods

Fri, 06/05/2020 - 18:54
Seismic hazard maps of Peshawar District for various return periods
Khalid Mahmood, Naveed Ahmad, Usman Khan, and Qaiser Iqbal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1639–1661, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1639-2020, 2020
The paper presents probabilistic-based seismic hazard maps prepared for Peshawar for various return periods using classical PSHA. The study considered both shallow and deep earthquakes, represented by area sources, while using recent ground motion prediction equations. The hazard map for a 475-year return period was compared with the hazard map given in the Building Code of Pakistan; they were found to be in close agreement. The obtained maps may be used for infrastructure risk assessment.

Estimation of tropical cyclone wind hazards in coastal regions of China

Fri, 06/05/2020 - 18:54
Estimation of tropical cyclone wind hazards in coastal regions of China
Genshen Fang, Lin Zhao, Shuyang Cao, Ledong Zhu, and Yaojun Ge
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1617–1637, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1617-2020, 2020
Coastal regions of China feature high population densities as well as flexible structures and are therefore vulnerable to tropical cyclone (TC) damage. A TC is a moving rotating storm with a small occurrence rate at a specific site. Wind anemometers are usually damaged during strong typhoon events, making the record of observed winds an unreliable predictor for design wind speed. This study uses the Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the typhoon wind hazards in coastal regions of China.

Current and Future Climate Compound-Event Flood Impact on Coastal Critical Infrastructures

Fri, 06/05/2020 - 18:54
Current and Future Climate Compound-Event Flood Impact on Coastal Critical Infrastructures
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, Marika Koukoula, Rehenuma Lazin, Efthymios Nikolopoulos, Xinyi Shen, and Emmanouil Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-132,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Compound extremes correspond to events with multiple concurrent or consecutive drivers, leading to substantial impacts such as infrastructure failure. In many risk assessment and design applications, however, multihazard scenarios events are ignored. In this paper, we present a general framework to investigate current and Future Climate Compound-Event Flood Impact on Coastal Critical Infrastructures such as power-grid substations.

Induced seismicity risk analysis of the hydraulic stimulation of a geothermal well on Geldinganes, Iceland

Thu, 06/04/2020 - 18:54
Induced seismicity risk analysis of the hydraulic stimulation of a geothermal well on Geldinganes, Iceland
Marco Broccardo, Arnaud Mignan, Francesco Grigoli, Dimitrios Karvounis, Antonio Pio Rinaldi, Laurentiu Danciu, Hannes Hofmann, Claus Milkereit, Torsten Dahm, Günter Zimmermann, Vala Hjörleifsdóttir, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1573–1593, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1573-2020, 2020
This study presents a first-of-its-kind pre-drilling probabilistic induced seismic risk analysis for the Geldinganes (Iceland) deep-hydraulic stimulation. The results of the assessment indicate that the individual risk within a radius of 2 km around the injection point is below the safety limits. However, the analysis is affected by a large variability due to the presence of pre-drilling deep uncertainties. This suggests the need for online risk updating during the stimulation.

Skill of large-scale seasonal drought impact forecasts

Thu, 06/04/2020 - 18:54
Skill of large-scale seasonal drought impact forecasts
Samuel J. Sutanto, Melati van der Weert, Veit Blauhut, and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1595–1608, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1595-2020, 2020
Present-day drought early warning systems only provide information on drought hazard forecasts. Here, we have developed drought impact functions to forecast drought impacts up to 7 months ahead using machine learning techniques, logistic regression, and random forest. Our results show that random forest produces a higher-impact forecasting skill than logistic regression. For German county levels, drought impacts can be forecasted up to 4 months ahead using random forest.

Modelling the Brumadinho tailings dam failure, the subsequent loss of life and how it could have been reduced

Thu, 06/04/2020 - 18:54
Modelling the Brumadinho tailings dam failure, the subsequent loss of life and how it could have been reduced
Darren Lumbroso, Mark Davison, Richard Body, and Gregor Petkovšek
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-159,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
A tailings dam is an earth embankment used to store the waste from mines, known as tailings. In 2019, the Brumadinho tailings dam in Brazil failed releasing a mudflow which killed ~ 300 people. This paper details the use of an agent-based model to estimate the risk to people downstream of this dam. The agent-based model represents each individual person. The modelling indicated that if a warning had been issued as the dam failed the number of fatalities could have been reduced.

Radar-based assessment of hail frequency in Europe

Wed, 06/03/2020 - 18:54
Radar-based assessment of hail frequency in Europe
Elody Fluck, Michael Kunz, Peter Geissbuehler, and Stefan P. Ritz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-138,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Severe convective storms (SCS) and related hail constitute a major atmospheric hazard in various parts of Europe. In our study we identified the regions the most affected by hail over a 10-year period (2005 to 2014) covering France, Germany, Belgium and Luxembourg. A cell-tracking algorithm was computed on remote-sensing data to enable the reconstruction of several thousands of SCS tracks. The location of hail hotspots will help to understand hail formation and improve hail forecasting.

Enhancing the operational value of snowpack models with visualization design principles

Tue, 06/02/2020 - 18:54
Enhancing the operational value of snowpack models with visualization design principles
Simon Horton, Stan Nowak, and Pascal Haegeli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1557–1572, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1557-2020, 2020
Numeric snowpack models currently offer limited value to operational avalanche forecasters. To improve the relevance and interpretability of model data, we introduce and discuss visualization principles that map model data into visual representations that can inform avalanche hazard assessments.

Open check dams and large wood: head losses and release conditions

Tue, 06/02/2020 - 18:54
Open check dams and large wood: head losses and release conditions
Guillaume Piton, Toshiyuki Horiguchi, Lise Marchal, and Stéphane Lambert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-158,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Open check dams are flood protection structures trapping sediment and large wood. Large wood obstructs openings of dams, thus increasing flow level. If flow level become higher than the dam crest, the trapped large wood may overtop the structure and be suddenly released downstream, which may eventually obstruct downstream bridges. This paper is based on experiments on small scale models. It shows how to compute the increase of flow level and the conditions leading to sudden overtopping.

Model development for simulating mudslide and the case study of the failure of the gypsum tailings dam in East Texas in 1966

Tue, 06/02/2020 - 18:54
Model development for simulating mudslide and the case study of the failure of the gypsum tailings dam in East Texas in 1966
Tso-Ren Wu, Thi-Hong-Nhi Vuong, Chun-Yu Wang, Chia-Ren Chu, and Chun-Wei Lin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-126,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Many studies concentrate on mudflow; however, the stratification between the solid and liquid phase inside the mud material has been not considered. This study provides a modified Bi-viscosity model (MBM) to describe the mudslide flow with the stratification effect. The MBM can simulate the initiation of the mudslide, then the development of the slip surface, the flooding process, the velocity ceasing process, and the stoppage of mudflow.

Contrasting seismic risk for Santiago, Chile, from near-field and distant earthquake sources

Fri, 05/29/2020 - 18:54
Contrasting seismic risk for Santiago, Chile, from near-field and distant earthquake sources
Ekbal Hussain, John R. Elliott, Vitor Silva, Mabé Vilar-Vega, and Deborah Kane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1533–1555, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1533-2020, 2020
Many of the rapidly expanding cities around the world are located near active tectonic faults that have not produced an earthquake in recent memory. But these faults are generally small, and so most previous seismic-hazard analysis has focussed on large, more distant faults. In this paper we show that a moderate-size earthquake on a fault close to the city of Santiago in Chile has a greater impact on the city than a great earthquake on the tectonic boundary in the ocean, about a 100 km away.

A methodology to conduct wind damage field surveys for high-impact weather events of convective origin

Fri, 05/29/2020 - 18:54
A methodology to conduct wind damage field surveys for high-impact weather events of convective origin
Oriol Rodríguez, Joan Bech, Juan de Dios Soriano, Delia Gutiérrez, and Salvador Castán
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1513–1531, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1513-2020, 2020
Post-event damage assessment data are used to study the consequences of natural hazards, such as strong convective winds (i.e. tornadoes, downbursts). The information gathered during fieldwork can be used to characterize those events, which is necessary to build up and maintain robust and homogeneous databases of severe weather cases and high-impact weather events. Accordingly, a methodology to carry out damage surveys of strong-convective-wind events is presented in this article.

Evolution of a pyrocumulonimbus event associated with an extreme wildfire in Tasmania, Australia

Wed, 05/27/2020 - 18:54
Evolution of a pyrocumulonimbus event associated with an extreme wildfire in Tasmania, Australia
Mercy N. Ndalila, Grant J. Williamson, Paul Fox-Hughes, Jason Sharples, and David M. J. S. Bowman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1497–1511, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1497-2020, 2020
We analyse the evolution of a pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb), or fire-induced thunderstorm, during the Forcett–Dunalley fire on 4 January 2013 and relate it to the prevailing fire weather and fire severity patterns. We show that the pyroCb reached an altitude of 15 km, was associated with elevated fire weather, and formed over a severely burned area. Additionally, we show that eastern Tasmania is prone to elevated fire weather which has implications for fire weather forecasting and fire management.

INSPIRE standards as framework for artificial intelligence applications: a landslides example

Wed, 05/27/2020 - 18:54
INSPIRE standards as framework for artificial intelligence applications: a landslides example
Gioachino Roberti, Jacob McGregor, Sharon Lam, David Bigelow, Blake Boyko, Chris Ahern, Victoria Wang, Bryan Barnhart, Clinton Smyth, David Poole, and Stephen Richard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-134,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
We show how INSPIRE, the European initiative to standardize data across borders, can be used to produce explainable AI-based applications. We do so by producing landslide susceptibility maps for the Veneto region, Italy. EU countries are mandated by law to have implemented the INSPIRE data framework by 2021 but they are aligning and serving INSPIRE data at a slow pace. Our paper can provide a boost to INSPIRE implementation as it shows the value of standardized data.

The sensitivity of intense rainfall to aerosol particle loading – a comparison of bin-resolved microphysics modelling with observations of heavy precipitation from HyMeX IOP7a

Wed, 05/27/2020 - 18:54
The sensitivity of intense rainfall to aerosol particle loading – a comparison of bin-resolved microphysics modelling with observations of heavy precipitation from HyMeX IOP7a
Christina Kagkara, Wolfram Wobrock, Céline Planche, and Andrea I. Flossmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1469–1483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1469-2020, 2020
Over the Cévennes–Vivarais region in southern France, 5 h intensive rainfall covering an area of 1000 km

Brief communication: Hurricane Dorian: automated near-real-time mapping of the “unprecedented” flooding in the Bahamas using synthetic aperture radar

Wed, 05/27/2020 - 18:54
Brief communication: Hurricane Dorian: automated near-real-time mapping of the “unprecedented” flooding in the Bahamas using synthetic aperture radar
Diego Cerrai, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Marika Koukoula, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1463–1468, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1463-2020, 2020
On 1 September 2019 Hurricane Dorian made landfall on Great Abaco, unleashing unprecedented destruction on the northern Bahamas. Dorian was characterized by extreme winds, extensive coastal flooding, and impressive precipitation. We studied the event through images acquired by the synthetic aperture radars (SARs) mounted on European Space Agency satellites to derive flooding maps showing the extent of the devastation. We found that the flooded area in the Bahamas was at least 3000 km

The spatial–temporal total friction coefficient of the fault viewed from the perspective of seismo-electromagnetic theory

Wed, 05/27/2020 - 18:54
The spatial–temporal total friction coefficient of the fault viewed from the perspective of seismo-electromagnetic theory
Patricio Venegas-Aravena, Enrique G. Cordaro, and David Laroze
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1485–1496, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1485-2020, 2020
Over the past few years, a number of data have emerged on predicting large earthquakes using the magnetic field. These measurements are becoming strongly supported by rock electrification mechanisms experimentally and theoretically in seismo-electromagnetic theory. However, the processes that occur within the faults have yet to be elucidated. That is why this work theoretically links the friction changes of the faults with the lithospheric magnetic anomalies that surround the faults.

Topographic uncertainty quantification for flow-like landslide models via stochastic simulations

Tue, 05/26/2020 - 18:54
Topographic uncertainty quantification for flow-like landslide models via stochastic simulations
Hu Zhao and Julia Kowalski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1441–1461, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1441-2020, 2020
We study the impact of topographic uncertainty on landslide run-out modeling using conditional and unconditional stochastic simulation. First, we propose a generic workflow and then apply it to a historic flow-like landslide. We find that topographic uncertainty can greatly affect landslide run-out modeling, depending on how well the underlying flow path is captured by topographic data. The difference between unconditional and conditional stochastic simulation is discussed in detail.

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