Geoscientific Model Development

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Combined list of the recent articles of the journal Geoscientific Model Development and the recent discussion forum Geoscientific Model Development Discussions
Updated: 8 hours 16 min ago

Progress towards a probabilistic Earth system model: examining the impact of stochasticity in the atmosphere and land component of EC-Earth v3.2

Fri, 07/19/2019 - 18:54
Progress towards a probabilistic Earth system model: examining the impact of stochasticity in the atmosphere and land component of EC-Earth v3.2
Kristian Strommen, Hannah M. Christensen, Dave MacLeod, Stephan Juricke, and Tim N. Palmer
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3099-3118, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3099-2019, 2019
Due to computational limitations, climate models cannot fully resolve the laws of physics below a certain scale – a large source of errors and uncertainty. Stochastic schemes aim to account for this by randomly sampling the possible unresolved states. We develop new stochastic schemes for the EC-Earth climate model and evaluate their impact on model performance. While several benefits are found, the impact is sometimes too strong, suggesting such schemes must be carefully calibrated before use.

CLIMADA v1: a global weather and climate risk assessment platform

Fri, 07/19/2019 - 18:54
CLIMADA v1: a global weather and climate risk assessment platform
Gabriela Aznar-Siguan and David N. Bresch
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3085-3097, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3085-2019, 2019
The need for assessing the risk of weather events is ever increasing. In addition to quantification of risk today, the role of aggravating factors such as population growth and changing climate conditions matter too. We present the open-source software CLIMADA, which integrates hazard, exposure, and vulnerability to compute metrics to assess risk and to quantify socio-economic impact, and use it to estimate and contextualize the damage of hurricane Irma through the Caribbean in 2017.

Simulating lightning NO production in CMAQv5.2: evolution of scientific updates

Thu, 07/18/2019 - 18:54
Simulating lightning NO production in CMAQv5.2: evolution of scientific updates
Daiwen Kang, Kenneth E. Pickering, Dale J. Allen, Kristen M. Foley, David C. Wong, Rohit Mathur, and Shawn J. Roselle
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3071-3083, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3071-2019, 2019
Lightning strikes produce significant amount of nitrogen oxides and the resulting atmospheric chemistry causes one of the primary air pollutants, ground-level ozone, to change. In this paper, we documented the evolution of scientific updates for lightning-induced nitrogen oxides schemes in the CMAQ model. The updated observation-based schemes are good for retrospective applications, while the parameterized scheme can estimate lightning nitrogen oxides for applications without observations.

Development of Korean Air Quality Prediction System version 1 (KAQPS v1): an operational air quality prediction system with focuses on practical issues

Thu, 07/18/2019 - 18:54
Development of Korean Air Quality Prediction System version 1 (KAQPS v1): an operational air quality prediction system with focuses on practical issues
Kyunghwa Lee, Jinhyeok Yu, Sojin Lee, Mieun Park, Hun Hong, Soon Young Park, Myungje Choi, Jhoon Kim, Younha Kim, Jung-Hun Woo, Sang-Woo Kim, and Chul H. Song
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-169,2019
Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
For the purpose of providing reliable and robust air quality predictions, an operational air quality prediction system was developed for the main air quality criteria species in South Korea (PM10, PM2.5, CO, O3, and SO2) by preparing the initial conditions for model simulations via data assimilation using satellite- and ground-based observations. The performance of the developed air quality prediction system was evaluated using ground in-situ data during the KORUS-AQ campaign period.

Reducing climate model biases by exploring parameter space with large ensembles of climate model simulations and statistical emulation

Wed, 07/17/2019 - 18:54
Reducing climate model biases by exploring parameter space with large ensembles of climate model simulations and statistical emulation
Sihan Li, David E. Rupp, Linnia Hawkins, Philip W. Mote, Doug McNeall, Sarah N. Sparrow, David C. H. Wallom, Richard A. Betts, and Justin J. Wettstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3017-3043, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3017-2019, 2019
Understanding the unfolding challenges of climate change relies on climate models, many of which have regional biases larger than the expected climate signal over the next half-century. This work shows the potential for improving climate model simulations through a multiphased parameter refinement approach. Regional warm biases are substantially reduced, suggesting this iterative approach is one path to improving climate models and simulations of present and future climate.

Incorporating wind sheltering and sediment heat flux into 1-D models of small boreal lakes: a case study with the Canadian Small Lake Model V2.0

Wed, 07/17/2019 - 18:54
Incorporating wind sheltering and sediment heat flux into 1-D models of small boreal lakes: a case study with the Canadian Small Lake Model V2.0
Murray D. MacKay
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3045-3054, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3045-2019, 2019
Lakes interact with their surroundings through flux exchange at their bottom sediments and with the atmosphere at the surface, and these linkages must be represented in climate and weather prediction models in order to completely elucidate the role of lakes in the climate system. Here schemes for the inclusion of wind sheltering and sediment heat flux simple enough to be included in any 1-D lake model are presented, along with example simulations of the Canadian Small Lake Model.

Trend-preserving bias adjustment and statistical downscaling with ISIMIP3BASD (v1.0)

Wed, 07/17/2019 - 18:54
Trend-preserving bias adjustment and statistical downscaling with ISIMIP3BASD (v1.0)
Stefan Lange
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3055-3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3055-2019, 2019
Compared to their predecessors, the new Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) methods for bias adjustment and statistical downscaling allow for a more robust adjustment of extreme values and spatial variability, preserve trends more accurately across quantiles, and facilitate a clearer separation of bias adjustment and statistical downscaling.

Global Transition Rules for Translating Land-use Change (LUH2) To Land-cover Change for CMIP6 using GLM2

Wed, 07/17/2019 - 18:54
Global Transition Rules for Translating Land-use Change (LUH2) To Land-cover Change for CMIP6 using GLM2
Lei Ma, George C. Hurtt, Louise P. Chini, Ritvik Sahajpal, Julia Pongratz, Steve Frolking, Elke Stehfest, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Donal O’ Leary, and Jonathan C. Doelman
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-146,2019
Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Earth system models require information on historical land cover change. We present a transition rule to generate land cover change from newly developed land use dataset (land-use harmonization, LUH2). The resulting forest cover, vegetation carbon and emissions from land use and land cover change are simulated and evaluated against remote sensing data and other studies. This rule can guide the incorporation of land-cover information within earth system models for CMIP6.

SEAMUS (v1.0): a Δ14C-enabled, single-specimen sediment accumulation simulator

Tue, 07/16/2019 - 18:54
SEAMUS (v1.0): a Δ14C-enabled, single-specimen sediment accumulation simulator
Bryan C. Lougheed
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-155,2019
Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Deep-sea sediment archives are made up of the calcareous tests of foraminifera, small sea dwelling organisms that record the Earth's past climate. Sediment cores retrieved from the sea floor contain sediment that is systematically bioturbated (mixed). The SEAMUS model of single foraminifera sedimentation and bioturbation allows users to quantify the error of bioturbation upon their foraminifera-derived climate reconstructions and radiocarbon dates.

Scientific workflows applied to the coupling of a continuum (Elmer v8.3) and a discrete element (HiDEM v1.0) ice dynamic model

Mon, 07/15/2019 - 18:54
Scientific workflows applied to the coupling of a continuum (Elmer v8.3) and a discrete element (HiDEM v1.0) ice dynamic model
Shahbaz Memon, Dorothée Vallot, Thomas Zwinger, Jan Åström, Helmut Neukirchen, Morris Riedel, and Matthias Book
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3001-3015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3001-2019, 2019
Scientific workflows enable complex scientific computational scenarios, which include data intensive scenarios, parametric executions, and interactive simulations. In this article, we applied the UNICORE workflow management system to automate a formerly hard-coded coupling of a glacier flow model and a calving model, which contain many tasks and dependencies, ranging from pre-processing and data management to repetitive executions on heterogeneous high-performance computing (HPC) resources.

Modelling northern peatland area and carbon dynamics since the Holocene with the ORCHIDEE-PEAT land surface model (SVN r5488)

Mon, 07/15/2019 - 18:54
Modelling northern peatland area and carbon dynamics since the Holocene with the ORCHIDEE-PEAT land surface model (SVN r5488)
Chunjing Qiu, Dan Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Shushi Peng, Gerhard Krinner, Ardalan Tootchi, Agnès Ducharne, and Adam Hastie
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2961-2982, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2961-2019, 2019
We present a model that can simulate the dynamics of peatland area extent and the vertical buildup of peat. The model is validated across a range of northern peatland sites and over the Northern Hemisphere (> 30° N). It is able to reproduce the spatial extent of northern peatlands and peat carbon accumulation over the Holocene.

A simplified parameterization of isoprene-epoxydiol-derived secondary organic aerosol (IEPOX-SOA) for global chemistry and climate models: a case study with GEOS-Chem v11-02-rc

Mon, 07/15/2019 - 18:54
A simplified parameterization of isoprene-epoxydiol-derived secondary organic aerosol (IEPOX-SOA) for global chemistry and climate models: a case study with GEOS-Chem v11-02-rc
Duseong S. Jo, Alma Hodzic, Louisa K. Emmons, Eloise A. Marais, Zhe Peng, Benjamin A. Nault, Weiwei Hu, Pedro Campuzano-Jost, and Jose L. Jimenez
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2983-3000, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2983-2019, 2019
We developed a parameterization method for IEPOX-SOA based on the detailed chemical mechanism. Our parameterizations were tested using a box model and 3-D chemical transport model, which accurately captured the spatiotemporal distribution and response to changes in emissions compared to the explicit full chemistry, while being more computationally efficient. The method developed in this study can be applied to global climate models for long-term studies with a lower computational cost.

Efficiency and robustness in Monte Carlo sampling for 3-D geophysical inversions with Obsidian v0.1.2: setting up for success

Mon, 07/15/2019 - 18:54
Efficiency and robustness in Monte Carlo sampling for 3-D geophysical inversions with Obsidian v0.1.2: setting up for success
Richard Scalzo, David Kohn, Hugo Olierook, Gregory Houseman, Rohitash Chandra, Mark Girolami, and Sally Cripps
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2941-2960, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2941-2019, 2019
Producing 3-D models of structures under the Earth's surface based on sensor data is a key problem in geophysics (for example, in mining exploration). There may be multiple models that explain the data well. We use the open-source Obsidian software to look at the efficiency of different methods for exploring the model space and attaching probabilities to models, leading to less biased results and a better idea of how sensor data interact with geological assumptions.

HCLIM38: A flexible regional climate model applicable for different climate zones from coarse to convection permitting scales

Mon, 07/15/2019 - 18:54
HCLIM38: A flexible regional climate model applicable for different climate zones from coarse to convection permitting scales
Danijel Belušić, Hylke de Vries, Andreas Dobler, Oskar Landgren, Petter Lind, David Lindstedt, Rasmus A. Pedersen, Juan Carlos Sánchez-Perrino, Erika Toivonen, Bert van Ulft, Fuxing Wang, Ulf Andrae, Yurii Batrak, Erik Kjellström, Geert Lenderink, Grigory Nikulin, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Ernesto Rodríguez-Camino, Patrick Samuelsson, Erik van Meijgaard, and Minchao Wu
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-151,2019
Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
A new regional climate modelling system HCLIM38 is presented and shown to be applicable in different regions, ranging from the tropics to the Arctic. The main focus is on climate simulations at horizontal resolutions between 1 and 4 km, the so-called convection permitting scales, even though the model can also be used at coarser resolutions. The benefits of simulating climate at convection permitting scales are shown, and are particularly evident for climate extremes.

The Nexus Solutions Tool (NEST): An open platform for optimizing multi-scale energy-water-land system transformations

Mon, 07/15/2019 - 18:54
The Nexus Solutions Tool (NEST): An open platform for optimizing multi-scale energy-water-land system transformations
Adriano Vinca, Simon Parkinson, Edward Byers, Peter Burek, Zarrar Khan, Volker Krey, Fabio A. Diuana, Yaoping Wang, Ansir Ilyas, Alexandre C. Köberle, Iain Staffell, Stefan Pfenninger, Abubakr Muhammad, Andrew Rowe, Roberto Schaeffer, Narasimha D. Rao, Yoshihide Wada, Ned Djilali, and Keywan Riahi
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-134,2019
Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments)

The energy-water-land nexus represents a critical leverage future policies must draw upon to reduce trade-offs between sustainable development objectives. Yet, existing long-term planning tools do not provide the scope or level of integration across the nexus to unravel important development constraints. Moreover, existing tools and data are not always made openly available or are implemented across disparate modeling platforms that can be difficult to link directly with modern scientific computing tools and databases. In this paper, we present the Nexus Solutions Tool (NEST): a new open modeling platform that integrates multi-scale energy-water-land resource optimization with distributed hydrological modeling. The new approach provides insights into the vulnerability of water, energy and land resources to future socioeconomic and climatic change and how multi-sectoral policies, technological solutions and investments can improve the resilience and sustainability of transformation pathways while avoiding counterproductive interactions among sectors. NEST can be applied at different spatial and temporal resolutions, and is designed specifically to tap into the growing body of open access geospatial data available through national inventories and the earth system modeling community. A case study analysis of the Indus River Basin in South Asia demonstrates the capability of the model to capture important interlinkages across system transformation pathways towards the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals, including the intersections between local and regional transboundary policies and incremental investment costs from rapidly increasing regional consumption projected over the coming decades.

Estimating surface carbon fluxes based on a local ensemble transform Kalman filter with a short assimilation window and a long observation window: an observing system simulation experiment test in GEOS-Chem 10.1

Fri, 07/12/2019 - 18:54
Estimating surface carbon fluxes based on a local ensemble transform Kalman filter with a short assimilation window and a long observation window: an observing system simulation experiment test in GEOS-Chem 10.1
Yun Liu, Eugenia Kalnay, Ning Zeng, Ghassem Asrar, Zhaohui Chen, and Binghao Jia
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2899-2914, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2899-2019, 2019
We developed a new carbon data assimilation system to estimate the surface carbon fluxes using the LETKF and GEOS-Chem model, which uses a new scheme with a short assimilation window and a long observation window. The analysis is more accurate using the short assimilation window and is exposed to the future observations that accelerate the spin-up. In OSSE, the system reduces the analysis error significantly, suggesting that this method could be used for other data assimilation problems.

Significant improvement of cloud representation in the global climate model MRI-ESM2

Fri, 07/12/2019 - 18:54
Significant improvement of cloud representation in the global climate model MRI-ESM2
Hideaki Kawai, Seiji Yukimoto, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Naga Oshima, Taichu Tanaka, Hiromasa Yoshimura, and Ryoji Nagasawa
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2875-2897, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2875-2019, 2019
The representation of clouds was significantly improved in the climate model MRI-ESM2. The model is planned for use in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations. In particular, a notorious lack of reflection of solar radiation over the Southern Ocean was drastically improved in the model. The score of the spatial pattern of radiative fluxes for MRI-ESM2 is better than for any CMIP5 model. We present modifications implemented in the various physics schemes.

AtmoSwing: Analog Technique Model for Statistical Weather forecastING and downscalING (v2.1.0)

Fri, 07/12/2019 - 18:54
AtmoSwing: Analog Technique Model for Statistical Weather forecastING and downscalING (v2.1.0)
Pascal Horton
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2915-2940, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2915-2019, 2019
Analog methods rely on the principle that similar atmospheric situations are likely to result in a similar local effect, such as precipitation. By using archives of measured atmospheric parameters and observed precipitation, one can establish a probabilistic forecast, for example, of the precipitation for a chosen target day. Analog methods require low computing capacity and have demonstrated useful potential for application in both operational forecasting and the context of climate studies.

JULES-GL7: The Global Land Configuration of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulation version 7.0

Fri, 07/12/2019 - 18:54
JULES-GL7: The Global Land Configuration of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulation version 7.0
Andrew J. Wiltshire, Carolina Duran Rojas, John Edwards, Nicola Gedney, Anna B. Harper, Andy Hartley, Maggie Hendry, Eddy Robertson, and Kerry Smout-Day
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-152,2019
Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
We present the Global Land (GL) Configuration of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). JULES-GL7 can be used to simulate the exchange of heat, water and momentum over land and is therefore applicable to helping understand past and future changes and forms the land component of the HadGEM3-GC3.1 climate model. The configuration is freely available subject to licence restrictions.

A spatial evaluation of high-resolution wind fields from empirical and dynamical modeling in hilly and mountainous terrain

Thu, 07/11/2019 - 18:54
A spatial evaluation of high-resolution wind fields from empirical and dynamical modeling in hilly and mountainous terrain
Christoph Schlager, Gottfried Kirchengast, Juergen Fuchsberger, Alexander Kann, and Heimo Truhetz
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2855-2873, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2855-2019, 2019
Empirical high-resolution surface wind fields from two study areas, automatically generated by a weather diagnostic application, were intercompared with wind fields of different modeling approaches. The focus is on evaluating spatial differences and displacements between the different datasets. In general, the spatial verification indicates a better statistical agreement for the first study area (hilly WegenerNet Feldbach Region), than for the second one (mountainous WegenerNet Johnsbachtal).

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