Geoscientific Model Development

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Combined list of the recent articles of the journal Geoscientific Model Development and the recent discussion forum Geoscientific Model Development Discussions
Updated: 1 day 5 hours ago

LIVVkit 2.1: automated and extensible ice sheet model validation

Fri, 03/22/2019 - 17:05
LIVVkit 2.1: automated and extensible ice sheet model validation
Katherine J. Evans, Joseph H. Kennedy, Dan Lu, Mary M. Forrester, Stephen Price, Jeremy Fyke, Andrew R. Bennett, Matthew J. Hoffman, Irina Tezaur, Charles S. Zender, and Miren Vizcaíno
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1067-1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1067-2019, 2019
A robust validation of ice sheet models is presented using LIVVkit, version 2.1. It targets ice sheet and coupled Earth system models, and handles datasets and operations that require high-performance computing and storage. We apply LIVVkit to a Greenland ice sheet simulation to show the degree to which it captures the surface mass balance. LIVVkit identifies a positive bias due to insufficient melting compared to observations that is focused largely around Greenland's southwest region.

SEAS5: the new ECMWF seasonal forecast system

Fri, 03/22/2019 - 17:05
SEAS5: the new ECMWF seasonal forecast system
Stephanie J. Johnson, Timothy N. Stockdale, Laura Ferranti, Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Franco Molteni, Linus Magnusson, Steffen Tietsche, Damien Decremer, Antje Weisheimer, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Sarah P. E. Keeley, Kristian Mogensen, Hao Zuo, and Beatriz M. Monge-Sanz
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1087-1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1087-2019, 2019
In this article, we describe the new ECMWF seasonal forecast system, SEAS5, which replaced its predecessor in November 2017. We describe the forecast methodology used in SEAS5 and compare results from SEAS5 to results from the previous seasonal forecast system, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of SEAS5. SEAS5 data are publicly available through the Copernicus Climate Change Service's multi-system seasonal forecast.

CORDEX-WRF v1.3: development of a module for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to support the CORDEX community

Fri, 03/22/2019 - 17:05
CORDEX-WRF v1.3: development of a module for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to support the CORDEX community
Lluís Fita, Jan Polcher, Theodore M. Giannaros, Torge Lorenz, Josipa Milovac, Giannis Sofiadis, Eleni Katragkou, and Sophie Bastin
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1029-1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1029-2019, 2019
Regional climate experiments coordinated throughout CORDEX aim to study and provide high-quality climate data over a given region. The data are used in climate change mitigation and adaptation policy studies and by stakeholders. CORDEX requires a list of variables, most of which are not provided by atmospheric models. Aiming to help the community and to maximize the use of CORDEX exercises, we create a new module for WRF models to directly produce them by adding generic and additional ones.

FESOM-C v.2: coastal dynamics on hybrid unstructured meshes

Thu, 03/21/2019 - 17:05
FESOM-C v.2: coastal dynamics on hybrid unstructured meshes
Alexey Androsov, Vera Fofonova, Ivan Kuznetsov, Sergey Danilov, Natalja Rakowsky, Sven Harig, Holger Brix, and Karen Helen Wiltshire
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1009-1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1009-2019, 2019
We present a description of a coastal ocean circulation model designed to work on variable-resolution meshes made of triangular and quadrilateral cells. This hybrid mesh functionality allows for higher numerical performance and less dissipative solutions.

First forcing estimates from the future CMIP6 scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect

Thu, 03/21/2019 - 17:05
First forcing estimates from the future CMIP6 scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect
Stephanie Fiedler, Bjorn Stevens, Matthew Gidden, Steven J. Smith, Keywan Riahi, and Detlef van Vuuren
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 989-1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-989-2019, 2019

We present the first forcing interpretation of the future anthropogenic aerosol scenarios of CMIP6 with the simple plumes parameterisation MACv2-SP. The nine scenarios for 2015 to 2100 are based on anthropogenic aerosol emissions for use in CMIP6 (Riahi et al.2017; Gidden et al.2018). We use the emissions to scale the observationally informed anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and the associated effect on the cloud albedo of present-day (Fiedler et al.2017; Stevens et al.2017) into the future. The resulting scenarios in MACv2-SP are then ranked according to their strength in forcing magnitude and spatial asymmetries for anthropogenic aerosol. All scenarios, except SSP3-70 and SSP4-60, show a decrease in anthropogenic aerosol by 2100 with a range from 108 % to 36 % of the anthropogenic aerosol optical depth in 2015. We estimate the radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosol from high- and low-end scenarios in the mid-2090s by performing ensembles of simulations with the atmosphere-only configuration of MPI-ESM1.2. MACv2-SP translates the CMIP6 emission scenarios for inducing anthropogenic aerosol forcing. With the implementation in our model, we obtain forcing estimates for both the shortwave instantaneous radiative forcing (RF) and the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic aerosol relative to 1850. Here, ERF accounts for rapid atmospheric adjustments and natural variability internal to the model. The ERF of anthropogenic aerosol for the mid-2090s ranges from −0.15 W m−2 for SSP1-19 to −0.54 W m−2 for SSP3-70, i.e. the mid-2090s ERF is 30 %–108 % of the value in the mid-2000s due to differences in the emission pathway alone. Assuming a stronger Twomey effect changes these ERFs to −0.39 and −0.92 W m−2, respectively, which are similar to estimates obtained from models with complex aerosol parameterisations. The year-to-year standard deviations around 0.3 W m−2 associated with natural variability highlight the necessity to average over sufficiently long time periods for estimating ERF; this is in contrast to RF that is typically well constrained after simulating just 1 year. The scenario interpretation of MACv2-SP will be used within the framework of CMIP6 and other cutting-edge scientific endeavours.

Data assimilation of in-situ and satellite remote sensing data to 3D hydrodynamic lake models

Thu, 03/21/2019 - 17:05
Data assimilation of in-situ and satellite remote sensing data to 3D hydrodynamic lake models
Theo Baracchini, Philip Yifei Chu, Jonas Šukys, Gian Lieberherr, Stefan Wunderle, Alfred Wüest, and Damien Bouffard
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-47,2019
Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Lake physical processes occur at a wide range of spatio-temporal scales. 3D hydrodynamic lake models are the only information source capable of solving those scales, however they still need observations to be calibrated and to constrain their uncertainties. The optimal combination of 3D hydrodynamic model, in-situ measurements and remote sensing observations is achieved through data assimilation. Here we present a complete data assimilation experiment for lakes using open source tools.

A Python-enhanced urban land surface model SuPy (SUEWS in Python, v2019.2): development, deployment and demonstration

Thu, 03/21/2019 - 17:05
A Python-enhanced urban land surface model SuPy (SUEWS in Python, v2019.2): development, deployment and demonstration
Ting Sun and Sue Grimmond
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-39,2019
Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
A Python-enhanced urban land surface model, SuPy (SUEWS in Python), is presented with its development (the SUEWS interface modification, F2PY configuration and Python frontend implementation), cross-platform deployment (PyPI, Python Package Index) and demonstration (online tutorials in Jupyter notebooks for users of different levels). SuPy represents a significant enhancement that supports existing and new model applications, reproducibility, and enhanced functionality.

CobWeb 1.0: Machine Learning Tool Box for Tomographic Imaging

Wed, 03/20/2019 - 17:05
CobWeb 1.0: Machine Learning Tool Box for Tomographic Imaging
Swarup Chauhan, Kathleen Sell, Freider Enzmann, Wolfram Rühaak, Thorsten Wille, Ingo Sass, and Michael Kersten
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-335,2019
Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
We present CobWeb 1.0, a graphical user interface for analysing tomographic images of geomaterials. CobWeb offers different machine learning techniques for accurate multiphase image segmentation and visualizing material specific parameters such as pore size distribution, relative porosity & volume fraction. Further, we demonstrate a novel approach of dual filtration & dual segmentation to eliminate edge enhancement artefact in synchrotron-tomographic datasets and provide the computational code.

Snowfall distribution and its response to the Arctic Oscillation: An evaluation of HighResMIP models in the Arctic using CPR/CloudSat observations

Tue, 03/19/2019 - 17:05
Snowfall distribution and its response to the Arctic Oscillation: An evaluation of HighResMIP models in the Arctic using CPR/CloudSat observations
Manu Anna Thomas, Abhay Devasthale, Tristan L'Ecuyer, Shiyu Wang, Torben Koenigk, and Klaus Wyser
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-12,2019
Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Snow cover significantly influences the surface albedo and radiation budget. Therefore, a realistic representation of snowfall in climate models is important. Here, using a decade long estimates of snowfall derived from the satellite sensor, four climate models are evaluated to assess how well they simulate snowfall in the Arctic. It is found that the light and median snowfall is overestimated by the models in comparison to the satellite observations and the extreme snowfall is underestimated.

Simulating barrier island response to sea-level rise with the barrier island and inlet environment (BRIE) model v1.0

Mon, 03/18/2019 - 17:05
Simulating barrier island response to sea-level rise with the barrier island and inlet environment (BRIE) model v1.0
Jaap H. Nienhuis and Jorge Lorenzo-Trueba
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-10,2019
Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
The response of barrier islands to sea level rise depends on their ability to move landward through the transport of sediment from the beach to the back barrier. The BRIE model simulates these processes and the resulting landward movement of barrier islands. We find that tidal inlets (gaps in between barrier islands) can be important agents of landward sediment transport that can therefore help keep barrier islands above sea-level.

A hydrological model for root zone water storage simulation on a global scale

Mon, 03/18/2019 - 17:05
A hydrological model for root zone water storage simulation on a global scale
Ganquan Mao and Junguo Liu
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-52,2019
Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments)

The soil water stored in the root zone is a critical variable for many applications as it plays key role in several hydrological and atmospheric processes. Many studies have been done to obtain reliable soil water information in the root zone layer. However, most of them are mainly focused on the soil moisture in a certain depth rather than the water stored in the entire rooting system. In this work, a hydrological model is developed to simulate the root zone water storage (RZWS) on a global scale. The model is based on a well validated lumped model and has been extended now to a distribution model. To reflect the natural spatial heterogeneity of the plant rooting system across the world, a key variable that influencing the RZWS, i.e. root zone storage capacity (RZSC), is integrated into the model. The newly developed model is evaluated on runoff and RZWS simulation across ten major basins. The evaluation of runoff indicates the strong capacity of the model for monthly simulation with a good performance on time series and distribution depiction. Results also show the ability of the model for RZWS dynamics mimicing in most of the regions. This model may offer benefits for many applications due to its ability for RZWS simulation. However, attentions need to also be paid for application as the high latitude regions are not investigated by this work due to the incomplete latitudinal coverage of the RZSC. Therefore, the performance of the model in such regions are not justified.

Development of a dynamic dust source map for NMME-DREAM v1.0 model based on MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) over the Arabian Peninsula

Fri, 03/15/2019 - 17:05
Development of a dynamic dust source map for NMME-DREAM v1.0 model based on MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) over the Arabian Peninsula
Stavros Solomos, Abdelgadir Abuelgasim, Christos Spyrou, Ioannis Binietoglou, and Slobodan Nickovic
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 979-988, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-979-2019, 2019
In this research we developed a time-dependent dust source map for NMME-DREAM v1.0 model based on the MODIS Normalized Digital Vegetation Index (NDVI). Areas with NDVI < 0.1 are classified as active dust sources. The new modeling system is tested for the analysis of dust particle dispersion over SW Asia using a mesoscale model grid increment of 0.1° × 0.1° km for a period of 1 year. Simulated AOD increased compared to the static dust source approach and there was an increase in dust loads.

Simulating Lightning NOX Production in CMAQv5.2: Evolution of Scientific Updates

Thu, 03/14/2019 - 17:05
Simulating Lightning NOX Production in CMAQv5.2: Evolution of Scientific Updates
Daiwen Kang, Kenneth Pickering, Dale Allen, Kristen Foley, David Wong, Rohit Mathur, and Shawn Roselle
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-33,2019
Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Lightning strikes produce significant amount of nitrogen oxides and the resulting atmospheric chemistry causes one of the primary air pollutants, ground-level ozone, to change. In this paper, we documented the evolution of scientific updates for lightning-induced nitrogen oxides schemes in the CMAQ model. The updated observation-based scheme are good for retrospective applications, while the parameterized scheme can estimate lightning nitrogen oxides for applications without observations.

A reduced-order Kalman smoother for (paleo-)ocean state estimation: assessment and application to the LGM

Wed, 03/13/2019 - 17:05
A reduced-order Kalman smoother for (paleo-)ocean state estimation: assessment and application to the LGM
Charlotte Breitkreuz, André Paul, Stefan Mulitza, Javier García-Pintado, and Michael Schulz
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-32,2019
Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
We present a technique for ocean state estimation based on the combination of a simple data assimilation method with a state reduction approach. The technique proves to be very efficient and successful in reducing the model-data misfit and reconstructing a target ocean circulation from synthetic observations. In an application to Last Glacial Maximum proxy data the model-data misfit is greatly reduced but some misfit remains. Two different ocean states are found with similar model-data misfit.

Dealing with discontinuos meteorological forcing in operational ocean modelling

Wed, 03/13/2019 - 17:05
Dealing with discontinuos meteorological forcing in operational ocean modelling
Bjarne Büchmann
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-35,2019
Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Operational forecasting of the ocean state – used for e.g. ship route planning, sea rescue, and oil spill drift models – relies on data (forcing) obtained from weather forecasting. Unfortunately, the so-called meteorological analysis step introduces a discontinuity, which affects the ocean models adversely. In the present paper, a straight-forward method to deal with the issue is introduced. Practical examples are given to illuminate the scale of the problem.

ATAT 1.1, the Automated Timing Accordance Tool for comparing ice-sheet model output with geochronological data

Tue, 03/12/2019 - 17:05
ATAT 1.1, the Automated Timing Accordance Tool for comparing ice-sheet model output with geochronological data
Jeremy C. Ely, Chris D. Clark, David Small, and Richard C. A. Hindmarsh
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 933-953, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-933-2019, 2019
During the last 2.6 million years, the Earth's climate has cycled between cold glacials and warm interglacials, causing the growth and retreat of ice sheets. These ice sheets can be independently reconstructed using numerical models or from dated evidence that they leave behind (e.g. sediments, boulders). Here, we present a tool for comparing numerical model simulations with dated ice-sheet material. We demonstrate the utility of this tool by applying it to the last British–Irish ice sheet.

A new method (M3Fusion v1) for combining observations and multiple model output for an improved estimate of the global surface ozone distribution

Tue, 03/12/2019 - 17:05
A new method (M3Fusion v1) for combining observations and multiple model output for an improved estimate of the global surface ozone distribution
Kai-Lan Chang, Owen R. Cooper, J. Jason West, Marc L. Serre, Martin G. Schultz, Meiyun Lin, Virginie Marécal, Béatrice Josse, Makoto Deushi, Kengo Sudo, Junhua Liu, and Christoph A. Keller
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 955-978, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-955-2019, 2019
We developed a new method for combining surface ozone observations from thousands of monitoring sites worldwide with the output from multiple atmospheric chemistry models. The result is a global surface ozone distribution with greater accuracy than any single model can achieve. We focused on an ozone metric relevant to human mortality caused by long-term ozone exposure. Our method can be applied to studies that quantify the impacts of ozone on human health and mortality.

Update and evaluation of the ozone dry deposition in the Oslo CTM3 v1.0

Mon, 03/11/2019 - 17:05
Update and evaluation of the ozone dry deposition in the Oslo CTM3 v1.0
Stefanie Falk and Amund Søvde Haslerud
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-21,2019
Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
High concentrations of ozone in ambient air are hazardous to the whole ecosystem. The impact of ozone induced damage on vegetation and agricultural plants in combination with advancing climate change may affect food security in the future. The process of dry deposition is important for predicting and understanding the observed surface ozone concentrations. We have updated the dry deposition scheme in the Oslo CTM3 to a more process-based parameterization and assess the affect on modeled ozone.

Are contributions of emissions to ozone a matter of scale? – A study using MECO(n) (MESSy v2.50)

Fri, 03/08/2019 - 17:30
Are contributions of emissions to ozone a matter of scale? – A study using MECO(n) (MESSy v2.50)
Mariano Mertens, Astrid Kerkweg, Volker Grewe, Patrick Jöckel, and Robert Sausen
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-7,2019
Manuscript under review for GMD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This study investigates if ozone source apportionment results using a tagged tracer approach depend on the resolutions of the applied model and/or emission inventory. For this we apply a global to regional atmospheric chemistry model, which allows to compare the results on the global and regional scale. Our results show that differences on the continental scale (e.g. Europe) are rather small (10 %), on the regional scale, however, differences of up to 30 % were found.

The Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) v1.1

Fri, 03/08/2019 - 17:05
The Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) v1.1
Fabien Maussion, Anton Butenko, Nicolas Champollion, Matthias Dusch, Julia Eis, Kévin Fourteau, Philipp Gregor, Alexander H. Jarosch, Johannes Landmann, Felix Oesterle, Beatriz Recinos, Timo Rothenpieler, Anouk Vlug, Christian T. Wild, and Ben Marzeion
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 909-931, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-909-2019, 2019
Mountain glaciers are one of the few remaining subsystems of the global climate system for which no globally applicable community-driven model exists. Here we present the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM; www.oggm.org), developed to provide a modular and open-source numerical model framework for simulating past and future change of any glacier in the world.

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