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An update on the 21 July 2025 rock avalanche in the Matia’an valley, in Wanrong township in eastern Taiwan.

EOS - Tue, 08/19/2025 - 06:25

Following the passage Typhoon Podul, the lake created by this massive landslide has now grown considerably. Overtopping is expected in October, although could occur sooner if further heavy rainfall occurs.

The landslide-dammed lake behind the the enormous 21 July 2025 rock avalanche in the Matia’an valley, in Wanrong township in eastern Taiwan continues to fill. Meanwhile, the landslide itself is evolving with time. This is a Planet Labs image of the site soon after the main rock avalanche occurred:-

Planet Labs image showing the site of the 21 July 2025 landslide in the Matia’an valley in Wanrong township, Taiwan. Satellite image copyright Planet Labs , used with permission. Image dated 25 July 2025.

Whilst this is the most recent satellite image (note that the right hand side is the older image):-

Recent Planet Labs image showing the site of the 21 July 2025 landslide in the Matia’an valley in Wanrong township, Taiwan. Satellite image copyright Planet Labs, used with permission. Image dated 18 August 2025.

And here is a slider so that you can compare the two images:-

Image copyright Planet Labs.

This area received very heavy rainfall as a result of the passage of Typhoon Podul. This has driven a number of changes. Perhaps most obviously, the lake is now very considerably larger. This will continue to grow over the coming weeks until overtopping occurs.

Second, as I noted in my original post, the landslide generated a large volume of dust which had settled around the deposit, especially to the south. This has now been washed away.

Thirdly, there have been more failures from the rear scarp of the landslide, so the landslide deposit has evolved.

And finally, the heavy rainfall has driven some erosion of the finer-grained portions of the landslide deposit.

It is also worth noting that a few other, smaller, lakes have now formed on the landslide. The largest of these is about 250 x 200 metres, so not insignificant.

On 14 August 2025, etaiwan.news posted an article in Mandarin about the landslide. It noted that the Taiwan Government has authorised funding to “develop disaster mitigation, monitoring, evacuation, and engineering plans”. This includes the development of an evacuation plan, but also “evaluation and planning, excavation of spillways, construction of embankments, bed consolidation, etc., to reduce the risk of dam collapse and protect downstream areas”.

The Hualien Branch of the Forestry and Conservation Department has released these two images of the lake at the site of the in the Matia’an valley:-

The deposit of the 21 July 2025 landslide in the Matai’an valley in Wanrong township, Taiwan. Image by provided by Hualien Branch of the Forestry and Conservation Department/Wang Zhiwei Hualien Fax.

The deposit of the landslide is well-captured, with the lake in the background. This is the same site from the lake looking towards the toe:-

The lake formed by the 21 July 2025 landslide in the Matai’an valley in Wanrong township, Taiwan. Image by provided by Hualien Branch of the Forestry and Conservation Department/Wang Zhiwei Hualien Fax.

Immediately after the typhoon, the lake had reached 43% of its storage capacity with a freeboard of 55 metres. Assuming that no further typhoons affect this area, and in the absence of the construction of a spillway, overtopping is likely to occur in October.

Reference

Planet Team 2025. Planet Application Program Interface: In Space for Life on Earth. San Francisco, CA. https://www.planet.com/

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Exascale simulations underpin quake-resistant infrastructure designs

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 08/19/2025 - 05:53
Simulations still can't predict exactly when an earthquake will happen, but with the incredible processing power of modern exascale supercomputers, they can now predict how they will happen and how much damage they will likely cause.

Grand Canyon's Dragon Bravo megafire shows the growing wildfire threat to water systems

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 08/19/2025 - 01:00
As wildfire crews battled the Dragon Bravo Fire on the Grand Canyon's North Rim in July 2025, the air turned toxic.

PoViT-UQ: P-wave Polarity and Arrival Time Determination using Vision Transformer with Uncertainty Quantification

Geophysical Journal International - Tue, 08/19/2025 - 00:00
SummaryDetermining earthquake focal mechanisms is essential for understanding fault geometry and the stress field in the Earth's crust. When focal mechanisms are estimated using P-wave first-motion polarities, accurate polarity determination is critical. In recent years, deep-learning-based polarity-determination models have been developed. However, the estimation of focal mechanisms using P-wave polarities is often not robust. When automating this process using deep learning models, it is crucial to identify and utilize only those polarity predictions that the model infers with high accuracy and low uncertainty. In this study, we propose a novel deep learning model, PoViT-UQ, that combines a Vision Transformer (ViT) with Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD) to estimate high-precision initial P-wave polarity classification and arrival time detection with uncertainty quantification. Using seismic waveform data sampled at 100 and 250 Hz, the model classifies polarities into three classes (Up, Down, and Noise) and simultaneously estimates P-wave arrival times. The results showed a classification accuracy exceeding 98% and a standard deviation of 0.027 s in the arrival time estimation using the 250 Hz model. By integrating MCD, we evaluate prediction uncertainty and apply an interquartile range threshold of ≤0.15 to improve the accuracy of focal mechanism estimates. Validation using aftershock data from the 2016 Central Tottori Earthquake confirmed that our approach contributes to efficient and high-precision focal mechanism estimates. Our model advances automated initial P-wave polarity determination and enables reliable data selection based on uncertainty quantification.

Surface core flow dynamic pressure estimation

Geophysical Journal International - Tue, 08/19/2025 - 00:00
SummaryThe flows within Earth’s fluid outer core push and pull on the core-mantle boundary (CMB) through dynamic pressure variations, potentially leading to deformation of the CMB. It is therefore crucial to obtain a realistic estimate of the pressure associated with flows within the fluid core. In many studies, it is commonly assumed that the flow tangent to the CMB is in balance between Coriolis and pressure gradient forces, known as a tangentially geostrophic (TG) flow. A static pressure field is thereby associated kinematically to the flow field at the core’s surface. We run direct numeric simulations of the magnetohydrodynamic equations in the Boussinesq approximation that can solve for the pressure field and allow for a comparison between a fully dynamic solution and the TG pressure estimate. An excellent agreement between the two pressure fields is found for a steady image of the core surface dynamics. However, the performance of the TG pressure estimate is not without limitations. Although it effectively captures most of the temporal dynamics associated with the fluid flow, discrepancies arise, particularly near the equator and for rapid changes in flow dynamics.

Discovery of hidden faults sheds light on mystery of 'slow earthquakes'

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 08/18/2025 - 20:30
Scientists have uncovered a key piece of the puzzle behind the unusual "slow earthquakes" occurring off the east coast of New Zealand's North Island.

Researcher: We can build safer tunnels with artificial intelligence

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 08/18/2025 - 20:16
Every day, new tunnels are being built through rock across the country. The completed tunnels are safe, but the construction phase presents challenges.

Dual-purpose use of the Santa Maria VGOS antenna for geodetic VLBI and methanol maser observations

Publication date: 15 August 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 76, Issue 4

Author(s): Valente A. Cuambe, Diogo F. Avelar, Abel García-Castellano, João S. Ferreira, Mariana Moreira, Pedro G. Martins, Cristina García-Miró, José A. Lopéz-Pérez

Relativistic electron scattering by high-frequency EMIC waves: Test-particle results using self-consistently generated wave fields

Publication date: 15 August 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 76, Issue 4

Author(s): Kyungguk Min

Physical simulation method for meteoroid atmospheric entry with multiple-peaked light curves

Publication date: 15 August 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 76, Issue 4

Author(s): Ziwen Li, Zhenye Li, Xiangyuan Zeng, Jifeng Liu, Hu Zou

Mission analysis for the first-ever Saturn Trojan 2019 UO<sub>14</sub>

Publication date: 15 August 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 76, Issue 4

Author(s): Yuki Takao

Spacecraft maneuver detection based on nonlinear uncertainty propagation along decussated orbital arc

Publication date: 15 August 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 76, Issue 4

Author(s): Zhen Yang, Hexiang Huang, Jiasheng Li, Yazhong Luo

Deep learning-enhanced Koopman operator linearization with LQR control for satellite attitude regulation

Publication date: 15 August 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 76, Issue 4

Author(s): Zixuan Zhou, Yadong Chen, Peng Cheng, Huan Cheng

Review on magnetic control technology of spacecraft relative motion

Publication date: 15 August 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 76, Issue 4

Author(s): Yuan-wen Zhang, Le-ping Yang

Multiple solutions of initial orbit determination in cislunar space

Publication date: 15 August 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 76, Issue 4

Author(s): Xin Liu, Xiyun Hou, Roberto Armellin

Multi-objective optimization and cost-benefit analysis of configuration maintenance for the TianQin mission

Publication date: 15 August 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 76, Issue 4

Author(s): Xuan Xie, Fanghua Jiang, Junfeng Li

High-fidelity dynamics modeling of long-term station keeping around Earth-Moon synodic resonant halo orbits using solar sails

Publication date: 15 August 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 76, Issue 4

Author(s): Toshihiro Chujo

Short-term space occupancy and conjunction filter

Publication date: 15 August 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 76, Issue 4

Author(s): Ana S. Rivero, Claudio Bombardelli, Rafael Vazquez

An investigation into the development of equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) through satellite traces (STs) using ionosonde observations

Publication date: 15 August 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 76, Issue 4

Author(s): B. Gayathri, S. Sripathi

Effects of BDS-2 flex power in daily ionospheric TEC estimation

Publication date: 15 August 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 76, Issue 4

Author(s): Aochuan Zhang, Shuhui Li, Jufeng Yang, Tiancheng Liu, Shun Lu, Zhou Wu

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