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Are We Really Seeing More Foreshocks with Enhanced Catalogs?

EOS - Tue, 01/13/2026 - 14:00
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth

Foreshocks are smaller earthquakes that sometimes occur before bigger ones and studying them could help give early warnings of large earthquakes and understand how large earthquakes occur. But, because scientists use different ways to define and find foreshocks, estimates for how often they happen before big earthquakes in Southern California vary a lot—from 19% to 72%.

Khan et al. [2025] looked at both regular earthquake catalog and special “enhanced” catalogs with more small events to figure out why these estimates are so different. They found that using a simple method, just by checking small quakes near big ones in space and time, could lead to high foreshock rate, but the rate is comparable between standard and enhanced catalogs. Using statistics of past seismicity to define foreshock is better, but the choice of statistical representation matters. Assuming a constant average rate of past earthquakes (using a Poisson distribution) produces the highest foreshock rates and makes the results most sensitive to magnitude cut-offs and catalog choice. Their preferred method uses statistical distributions that account for variations in past earthquake rates, resulting in more reliable foreshock rates that are less sensitive to the magnitude cut-off or the type of earthquake catalog used.

This study clears up confusion about the wide range of foreshocks rates from previous studies in the same region and is the most thorough review of foreshock studies in Southern California so far. The authors also provide clear definitions, guidelines, and computer codes for other researchers to use. The authors emphasize the need to carefully consider biases in data and statistical methods in searching for precursory signals before large earthquakes and offer useful tips for improving short-term earthquake forecasts in the future.

Citation: Khan, R. A., Werner, M. J., Biggs, J., & Fagereng, Å. (2025). Effect of mainshock selection, earthquake catalog and definition on foreshock rate estimates in Southern California. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 130, e2024JB030733. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JB030733

—Xiaowei Chen, Associate Editor, JGR: Solid Earth

Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

What is the global water cycle and how is it amplifying climate disasters?

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 01/13/2026 - 12:14
Floods, droughts and heat waves continue to dominate headlines around the world and in Australia.

El Niño and La Niña synchronize global droughts and floods, study finds

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 01/12/2026 - 22:10
Water extremes such as droughts and floods have a huge impact on communities, ecosystems, and economies. Researchers with The University of Texas at Austin have turned their attention to tracking these extremes across Earth and have discovered what is driving them.

Atmospheric physicists find error in widely cited Arctic snow cover observations

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 01/12/2026 - 22:01
For decades, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has offered a snapshot of the planet's changing climate—but University of Toronto researchers have found that some of the underlying data underrepresents a key driver of Arctic warming.

Open-source model more accurately measures greenhouse gas emissions from natural gas

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 01/12/2026 - 21:16
McGill engineering researchers have introduced an open-source model that makes it easier for experts and non-experts alike to evaluate greenhouse gas emissions from U.S. natural gas supply chains and yields more accurate results.

Hundreds of Scientists “Vehemently Oppose” U.S. Effort to Purchase Greenland

EOS - Mon, 01/12/2026 - 20:49
body {background-color: #D2D1D5;} Research & Developments is a blog for brief updates that provide context for the flurry of news regarding law and policy changes that impact science and scientists today.

More than 200 scientists have signed a letter condemning U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to acquire Greenland.

“Greenland’s scientists and citizens have made enormous contributions to the world’s understanding of the Arctic and how rapid Arctic changes are affecting people around the world,” the letter reads. “To Greenlanders: Qujanaq, and we stand with you.”

It follows another letter issued in February 2025, which called the effort “a dangerous distraction from the urgent work of addressing environmental change impacts to U.S. citizens.”

The president first expressed interest in buying Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, in 2019, during his first term in office, and has mentioned it throughout his second term. The campaign for the acquisition has intensified in the wake of the United States’ seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

 
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Greenland is rich in oil and in minerals such as lithium, copper, and rare earths. However, Malte Humpert, founder and senior fellow at The Arctic Institute, told CNN that the idea of extensive rare earth mining on the island is “completely bonkers.”

“You might as well mine on the Moon,” he said. “In some respects, it’s worse than the Moon.”

Greenland is also strategically located between the North American and Eurasian Arctic. Its northwest coast is also home to the U.S. Pituffik Space Base.

“If we don’t take Greenland, Russia or China will take Greenland, and I am not going to let that happen,” Trump told reporters on 11 January from Air Force One. “One way or the other, we’re going to have Greenland … They need us much more than we need them.”

“Times have changed since Inuit lands were mere commodities that could be bought and sold,” wrote Sara Olsvig, Chair of the Inuit Circumpolar in a January 2025 statement. “In today’s world, we are active participants in decision-making about our lands and resources. We are beyond the times of typical colonial attitudes of superiority.”

In a LinkedIn post last week, Greenland’s prime minster, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, called the rhetoric “totally unacceptable” and “disrespectful.” A statement issued by the leaders of several European countries affirmed that “Greenland belongs to its people.”

Greenland is a critical location for climate science research, and many researchers have expressed concerns about how a U.S. takeover could affect this international scientific enterprise.

“Anything that injures our long-standing friendly relationship with Greenland is also an injury to science,” Yarrow Axford, a paleoclimatologist and one of the creators of the letter, wrote in an email to Eos. “There’s so much climate science and other important work that can only be done in Greenland, and only in partnership with Greenland’s people. I hope we can all weather this latest storm together.”

Mia Tuccillo, a paleolimnologist and Arctic scientist who is advised by Yarrow and also helped author the letter, wrote in an email to Eos that the research collaborations between the two nations are relatively new, and are delicate because of the history of U.S. intervention in Greenland.

“The statements by our government and by Trump that challenge Greenland’s sovereignty directly threaten these new priorities and collaborations—things that have greatly revolutionized and improved the ethos of geosciences—and things that are still very new and very, very valuable,” Tuccillo wrote.

“A unilateral US takeover threatens to disrupt the open scientific collaboration that is helping us understand the threat of global sea-level rise,” wrote glaciologist Martin Siegert in The Conversation.

The U.S. scientists behind the letter also issued a statement expressing solidarity with Greenland. Many shared (unattributed) personal messages at the end of the letter.

“Greenland is a unique culture and a critical part of the earth’s climate system, not a pawn in a real estate deal,” wrote one scientist.

“Without the help, knowledge, and skills of people in Greenland, we would have never been able to even reach our field site let alone conduct our research. When Greenlanders lead the way, our science improves and becomes more useful and relevant to both local and the international communities,” wrote another.

—Emily Gardner (@emfurd.bsky.social), Associate Editor

Editor’s note: This article has been updated to correctly differentiate between the letters issued in February 2025 and January 2026.

These updates are made possible through information from the scientific community. Do you have a story about how changes in law or policy are affecting scientists or research? Send us a tip at eos@agu.org. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

How hidden factors beneath Istanbul shape earthquake risk

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 01/12/2026 - 19:56
The fault beneath Istanbul doesn't behave the way scientists once thought.

Equilibrium Points and Stability Analysis in Binary Asteroid Systems Using a Double Mass Dipole Model

Publication date: Available online 9 January 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): A.K. Almeida Jr., L.B.T. Santos, C.E.S. Gomes, E.V.M. Andrade, A.L.S. Barros, K.G.F. Santos, G.M. Fernandes, F. Monteiro, A. Amarante, R.I.S. Bastos, N.B. Lima, H.C.B. Nascimento, N.B.D. Lima, A.F.B.A. Prado

Evaluating Various Vegetation Indices in Triangle Method to enhance High-Resolution Soil Moisture Estimation

Publication date: Available online 9 January 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Bharatkumar S. Prajapati, Sonu Kumar, Rajendra Prasad, Prashant Kumar Srivastava, Jyoti Sharma, Shubham Kumar Singh, Manika Gupta, Muskan Dua

Neutral wind effects on nighttime mid-latitude electron density enhancement observed by FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC during the super quiet solar activity period of 2008–2010

Publication date: Available online 8 January 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Fu-Yuan Chang, Jheng-Syun Chao, Jann-Yenq Liu

Disturbed and Quiet Days ∑O/N<sub>2</sub> Variations at Low and Mid-Latitudes During Solar Cycles 23 and 24

Publication date: Available online 8 January 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Jahan Zeb Khan, Waqar Younas, Christine Amory-Mazaudier, Majid Khan

Robust Adaptive Visual Servoing Control for Space Tether System Approach and Capture of Space Debris Integrating Deep Learning Perception

Publication date: Available online 8 January 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Sun Peijie, Wang Changqing, Lu Hongshi, Li Aijun, Pavel Fadeenkov

Assessing Soil Erosion and Water Availability for Sub-Watershed Prioritization of Shimsha River Basin Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Models

Publication date: Available online 8 January 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): A. Bharath, Ramesh Maddamsetty

Ionosphere Parameters from Verticalized Oblique Ionograms across Italy

Publication date: Available online 8 January 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Achille Zirizzotti, Carlo Scotto, Dario Sabbagh, Alessandro Ippolito

A Linearized Covariance Propagation Framework for Spacecraft Fragment Dispersion during Atmospheric Re-entry

Publication date: Available online 8 January 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Wantong Chen, Shuai Chen, Qing Feng, Ruihua Liu, Shuguang Sun

Estimate of the electron density profile and Total Electron Density of the D-layer during a quiet day and disturbed conditions

Publication date: Available online 8 January 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): OLADIPO M. Olatunji, ADIMULA I. Abiodun, BELLO A. Saeed, IMOH D. Ekpa, SAMUEL S. Akpan, MARTIN Paige, AJIBOYE Oladapo, YUSUF K. Aduagba

Stiffness-Dependent Traction Behavior of Heavy-Load Flexible Wheel in Lunar Gravity Environments

Publication date: Available online 7 January 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Xiaotian Zhang, Shengpu Zhao, Zelin Zhang, Lei Bao, Qingcheng Guo

Statistical Investigation of Langmuir Waves in Type III and II Sources

Publication date: Available online 7 January 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Iver H. Cairns, William Trevett, Daniel B. Graham

Comparative analysis of power beam control accuracy in full-duplex digital retrodirective method for solar power satellite

Publication date: Available online 7 January 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Simon Maillot, Koji Tanaka

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