Feed aggregator

GRACE-FO gravity field recovery from integer ambiguity resolved kinematic orbits and decorrelated stochastic model

Publication date: 1 February 2026

Source: Advances in Space Research, Volume 77, Issue 3

Author(s): Geng Gao, Wei Zheng, Yongjin Sun, Jiankang Du, Yongqi Zhao, Minxing Zhao

Ozone-depleting CFCs detected in historical measurements—20 years earlier than previously known

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 02/03/2026 - 18:56
An international research team led by the University of Bremen has detected chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in Earth's atmosphere for the first time in historical measurements from 1951—20 years earlier than previously known. This surprising glimpse into the past was made possible by analyzing historical measurement data from the Jungfraujoch research station in the Swiss Alps. The study has now been published in Geophysical Research Letters.

Solid, iron-rich megastructure under Hawaii slows seismic waves and may drive plume upwelling

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 02/03/2026 - 17:20
Mantle plumes beneath volcanic hotspots, like Hawaii, Iceland, and the Galapagos, seem to be anchored into a large structure within the core-mantle boundary (CMB). A new study, published in Science Advances, takes a deeper dive into the structure under Hawaii using P- and S-wave analysis and mineralogical modeling, revealing its composition and properties.

Global warming is speeding breakdown of major greenhouse gas, research shows

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 02/03/2026 - 16:12
Scientists at the University of California, Irvine have discovered that climate change is causing nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting substance, to break down in the atmosphere more quickly than previously thought, introducing significant uncertainty into climate projections for the rest of the 21st century.

Accurately predicting Arctic sea ice in real time

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 02/03/2026 - 16:00
Arctic sea ice has large effects on the global climate. By cooling the planet, Arctic ice impacts ocean circulation, atmospheric patterns, and extreme weather conditions, even outside the Arctic region. However, climate change has led to its rapid decline, and being able to make real-time predictions of sea ice extent (SIE)—the area of water with a minimum concentration of sea ice—has become crucial for monitoring sea ice health.

Tsunamis from the Sky

EOS - Tue, 02/03/2026 - 14:26
Editors’ Vox is a blog from AGU’s Publications Department.

Meteorological tsunamis, or meteotsunamis, are long ocean waves in the tsunami frequency band that are generated by traveling air pressure and wind disturbances. These underrated phenomena pose serious threats to coastal communities, especially in the era of climate change.

A new article in Reviews of Geophysics explores all aspects of meteotsunamis, from available data and tools used in research to the impacts on coastal communities. Here, we asked the authors to give an overview of these phenomena, how scientists study them, and what questions remain.

In simple terms, what are meteorological tsunamis or “meteotsunamis”?

Meteotsunamis are tsunami-like waves that are not generated by earthquakes or landslides, but by atmospheric processes.

Meteotsunamis are tsunami-like waves that are not generated by earthquakes or landslides, but by atmospheric processes. Their formation requires a strong air pressure or wind disturbance—typically characterized by a pressure change of 1–3 hectopascals over about five minutes—that propagates at a “perfect” speed, allowing long ocean waves to grow. In addition, coastal bathymetry must be sufficiently complex to amplify the incoming waves.

Meteotsunamis are less well known and, fortunately, are generally less destructive than seismic tsunamis. Nonetheless, they can reach wave heights of up to 10 meters and can be highly destructive. One of the most damaging events occurred on June 21, 1978, in Vela Luka, Croatia, where damages amounted to about 7 million US dollars at the time. Meteotsunamis can also cause injuries and fatalities, as unfortunately occurred on January 13, 2026, during the recent Argentina meteotsunami.

What kinds of hazards do meteotsunamis pose to humans and society?

Meteotsunamis are characterized by multi-meter sea level oscillations and, at times, strong currents. As a result, they can flood waterfront areas and households, while strong currents may break ship moorings and disrupt maritime traffic, as occurred in 2014 in Freemantle, Australia. An even greater danger comes from rip currents, which can sweep swimmers away from shore. A notable example is the July 4, 2003, meteotsunami that occurred under clear skies along the beaches of Lake Michigan and claimed seven lives.

Figure 1. Photos from the 1978 Vela Luka meteotsunami, with labeled eyewitness wave height and household’s damage inventory. Credit: Vilibić et al. [2025], Figure 12

How do scientists observe, measure, and reproduce meteotsunamis?

Much of the information on meteotsunamis comes from post-event observations. Following exceptionally strong events, scientists often visit affected locations to conduct field surveys, interview eyewitnesses, collect photos and videos, and estimate the extent and height of the meteotsunami along the coast. More precise information comes from coastal tide gauges and ocean buoys, as well as meteorological observations with at least minute-scale resolution.

Unfortunately, standard atmospheric and oceanic observing systems do not commonly operate at such high temporal resolution. For example, one of the oldest national networks—the UK tide gauge network operating for decades—still uses 15-minute sampling intervals. At the same time, most national meteorological services measure atmospheric variables at 10-minute or even hourly resolution, which is insufficient for meteotsunami research. Nevertheless, some oceanic and meteorological networks do provide appropriate sampling intervals, and even data from school-based or amateur networks can be valuable for research.

In addition, numerical modeling of meteotsunamis is now standard practice and includes both atmospheric and oceanic components. However, accurately reproducing meteotsunami-generating atmospheric processes—and thus meteotsunamis themselves—remains challenging. Addressing this issue and developing more accurate, high-resolution models is a key task for the modeling community.

Why has research on meteotsunamis shifted from localized to a global approach?

Figure 2. Map with known occurrences of meteotsunamis. Size of the star is proportional to the meteotsunami intensity. Credit: Vilibić et al. [2025], Figure 4

The strength of meteotsunamis strongly depends on coastal bathymetry. Within a specific bay, wave heights can reach several meters, while just outside the bay they may be only a few tens of centimeters. For this reason, meteotsunamis were historically observed and studied mainly at individual locations, known as meteotsunami hot spots. Over the past few decades, however, advances in monitoring and modeling capabilities, along with easier global dissemination of scientific results, have revealed that the same phenomenon occurs worldwide. Moreover, the recent availability of hundreds of multi-year, minute-scale sea level records has enabled researchers to conduct global studies and quantify worldwide meteotsunami patterns.

What are the primary ways that meteotsunamis are generated?

The generation of a strong meteotsunami requires (i) an intense, minute-scale air-pressure or wind disturbance that propagates over long distances (tens to hundreds of kilometers), (ii) an ocean region where energy is efficiently transferred from the atmosphere to the ocean, for example through Proudman resonance—a process in which long ocean waves grow strongly when the speed of the atmospheric disturbance matches the speed of tsunami waves, and (iii) coastal bathymetry capable of strongly amplifying long ocean waves. Funnel-shaped bays are particularly prone to meteotsunamis. These events can also be generated by explosive volcanic eruptions, such as the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption in January 2022, which produced a planetary-scale meteotsunami.

How is climate change expected to influence meteotsunamis?

At present, this is not well understood. Only two published studies exist, and both suggest a possible increase in meteotsunami intensity in the future due to an increased frequency of atmospheric conditions favorable for meteotsunami generation. However, no global assessment is currently available, as climate models are still unable to reliably reproduce the kilometer- or sub-kilometer-scale processes required to simulate meteotsunamis.

What are some of the recent advances in forecasting meteotsunamis?

Some progress has been made, but effective forecasting and early-warning systems for meteotsunamis remain far from operational. Improvements in atmospheric numerical models—currently the main source of uncertainty in meteotsunami simulations and forecasts—are expected in the coming decades, particularly through the development of new parameterization schemes that better represent turbulence-scale processes.

How does your review article differ from others that have covered meteotsunamis?

Our review introduces a new class of meteotsunamis generated by explosive volcanic eruptions.

The most recent comprehensive review of meteotsunamis was published nearly 20 years ago, making this review a timely synthesis of the substantial advances made over the past two decades. In addition, our review introduces a new class of meteotsunamis generated by explosive volcanic eruptions, such as the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai event in January 2022. Such events were previously only sporadically noted, as the last comparable eruption occurred in 1883 with the Krakatoa volcano. Finally, recent findings show that meteotsunamis—much like seismic tsunamis—can radiate energy into the ionosphere, where it can be detected using ground-based GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) stations. This discovery opens a new avenue for future meteotsunami research.

What are some of the remaining questions where additional research efforts are needed?

Many challenges remain in the observation, reproduction, and forecasting of meteotsunamis. Most are closely linked to technological advancements, such as (i) the need for dense, continuous, minute-scale observations of sea level and meteorological variables across the ocean and over climate-relevant time scales, (ii) increased computational power, since sub-kilometer atmosphere–ocean models require enormous resources, potentially addressable through GPU acceleration or future quantum computing, and (iii) the development of improved parameterizations for numerical models at sub-kilometer scales. Ultimately, extending research toward climate-scale assessments of meteotsunamis is essential for accurately evaluating coastal risks associated with sea level rise and future extreme sea levels, which currently do not account for minute-scale oscillations such as meteotsunamis.

—Ivica Vilibić (Ivica.vilibic@irb.hr, 0000-0002-0753-5775), Ruđer Bošković Institute & Institute for Adriatic Crops, Croatia; Petra Zemunik Selak (0000-0003-4291-5244), Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Croatia; and Jadranka Šepić (0000-0002-5624-1351), Faculty of Science, University of Split, Croatia

Editor’s Note: It is the policy of AGU Publications to invite the authors of articles published in Reviews of Geophysics to write a summary for Eos Editors’ Vox.

Citation: Vilibić, I., P. Zemunik Selak, and J. Šepić (2026), Tsunamis from the sky, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO265002. Published on 3 February 2026. This article does not represent the opinion of AGU, Eos, or any of its affiliates. It is solely the opinion of the author(s). Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

New model predicts the melting of free-floating ice in calm water

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 02/03/2026 - 14:20
A pair of US researchers have developed a new model to tackle a deceptively simple problem: how a small block of ice melts while floating in calm water. Using an advanced experimental setup, Daisuke Noto and Hugo Ulloa at the University of Pennsylvania have captured the intricate dynamics that underlie this everyday process—work that could ultimately pave the way for more accurate predictions of melting sea ice. The study has been published in Science Advances.

A Mid-Ocean Ridge in the Norwegian Sea Pumps Out Hydrogen

EOS - Tue, 02/03/2026 - 13:35

Roughly half a century ago, the burgeoning field of marine cartography revealed a curious sight: Mid-ocean ridges punctuate the seafloor, their geographic highs running over our planet like the seams on a baseball. These features mark where Earth’s tectonic plates are diverging and magma is upwelling.

Researchers sent a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) to a mid-ocean ridge system deep in the Norwegian Sea and discovered unusually high levels of molecular hydrogen dissolved in the hydrothermal fluids there. That hydrogen, which can help fuel microbial activity, is likely arising from the degradation of organic matter, the team concluded. These results were published in Communications Earth and Environment.

Pulling Apart

Many of our planet’s mountain ranges are built by the convergence of tectonic plates. But there are also regions on Earth where tectonic plates are diverging. In those places, magma from the planet’s interior is rising toward the surface. Many of those so-called spreading sites happen to be located in ocean basins, and the result is a mid-ocean ridge: a range of underwater volcanoes.

Thanks to their volcanic origin and underwater locales, mid-ocean ridges are characterized by a chemically potent amalgam of seawater, seafloor sediments, and magmatic material. But relatively few mid-ocean ridge systems have been explored in detail, partly because many lie beneath thousands of meters of water. “There’s still much more to learn about these systems,” said Alexander Diehl, a geochemist at MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences at the University of Bremen in Germany.

In 2022, a team led by MARUM researchers studied the Knipovich Ridge system off the coast of Svalbard. This mid-ocean ridge is known for being particularly slow spreading—its tectonic plates are diverging at only about 14 millimeters per year. (Fingernails grow about twice as fast.) Slow-spreading sites tend to get less research attention than fast-spreading sites, said Diehl. The reason is the latter tend to have larger supplies of upwelling magma and therefore more hydrothermal venting, he explained.

The 2022 cruise aboard the R/V Maria S. Merian revealed previously unknown fluid escape sites—including iconic black smokers—and an array of microbes that thrived in the utter absence of sunlight. Researchers used an ROV to collect hydrothermal fluids emanating from four vent sites along the Knipovich Ridge. Unfortunately, however, the sampling devices aboard the vehicle were not gas tight, and some of the dissolved gases escaped. “The concentrations of volatiles were not quantified correctly,” said Diehl.

A Second Chance

“They maintain pressure inside the sampler not only during recovery but also in the laboratory.”

But 2 years later, scientists got a second chance to visit the Knipovich Ridge. Diehl was one of the researchers who joined a 2024 cruise, again aboard R/V Maria S. Merian, to revisit the slow-spreading site. This time, the team brought gas-tight devices known as isobaric fluid samplers. “They maintain pressure inside the sampler not only during recovery but also in the laboratory,” said Diehl.

Diehl and his colleagues collected 160-milliliter samples of hydrothermal fluids from several vent sites on the Knipovich Ridge at a depth of roughly 3,000 meters. The team then analyzed the samples on board the R/V Maria S. Merian. The team recorded high levels of silica, alkaline pH levels, and low concentrations of metals like iron and manganese consistent with other hydrothermal systems where fluids circulate through sediments. But to their surprise they also noted unusually high levels of molecular hydrogen. There was more than twice the highest amount that had ever been recorded in any sediment-hosted hydrothermal vent.

Hydrogen is important to many life-forms in the deep ocean that don’t receive sunlight, said Jeff Seewald, a geochemist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Woods Hole, Mass., not involved in the research. “A lot of organisms can use it.” (Seewald developed the concept for the isobaric fluid samplers that Diehl and his colleagues used on their 2024 cruise.)

A Double Whammy

Finding so much hydrogen on the Knipovich Ridge baffled Diehl and his team. High concentrations of hydrogen typically arise in hydrothermal systems dominated by ultramafic rocks from the mantle, whereas the vents that Diehl and his colleagues studied were surrounded by terrestrial sediments sloughed off from the fjords of Svalbard.

Diehl and his team ran computer simulations and found that the high concentrations of molecular hydrogen could be explained by terrestrial sediments. The culprit, the researchers concluded, was the degradation of organic matter entrained in those sediments. Those reactions likely played a role in producing much of the hydrogen the team measured.

“You could potentially generate a significant amount of hydrogen, which could then be utilized by microbes.”

The hydrothermal system on the Knipovich Ridge is a powerhouse of hydrogen production, Seewald said. Finding similar systems on ocean worlds could have implications for life beyond Earth, he added. “You could potentially generate a significant amount of hydrogen, which could then be utilized by microbes.”

In the future, Diehl hopes to join another cruise to return to the Knipovich Ridge. It’s a fascinating site to visit, even if only vicariously, he said. “It’s a lot of fun to sit behind the pilots of the ROV.”

—Katherine Kornei (@KatherineKornei), Science Writer

Citation: Kornei, K. (2026), A mid-ocean ridge in the Norwegian Sea pumps out hydrogen, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260045. Published on 3 February 2026. Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Nationwide Soil Microbiome Mapping Project Connects Students and Scientists

EOS - Tue, 02/03/2026 - 13:33

Just 1 gram of soil can host billions of microorganisms and thousands of species of bacteria, fungi, and viruses, some of which drive essential processes like nutrient cycling. Because soil is home to nearly 60% of all living organisms, from microbes to mammals, some researchers have described it as the most biodiverse habitat on Earth. Soil microbes can also affect human heath, including by harboring pathogens and contributing to the development of antibiotic resistance.

As the climate continues to change, soil and its many inhabitants are facing changes, too. Yet by some estimates, about 99% of soil microorganisms have not yet been studied.

“Soil is one of the last frontiers on Earth.”

“Soil is one of the last frontiers on Earth,” said biologist Ava Hoffman, a senior scientist at the Fred Hutch Cancer Center in Washington State.

A group of educators, researchers, and students from dozens of institutions have teamed up to create the first-of-its-kind soil microbiome map of the United States. Though the effort is in its preliminary stages, researchers have already cataloged more than 1,000 previously unknown strains of bacteria and other microbes. The team discussed the work in a commentary published in Nature Genetics.

By collecting samples from 40 sites across the country and analyzing them with DNA sequencing tools used in human genomic study, researchers are working to build a broader understanding of the microbial “dark matter” in the soil under our feet. At the same time, the project is connecting faculty and students into a nationwide network of soil researchers.

Soil Brings Us Together

During the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, when community and connection were lacking, the members of the Genomic Data Science Community Network (GDSCN) met virtually. They wanted to create a research project that would excite faculty and students about genetics and data without requiring too much lab equipment, and they wondered how that might be done.

It would be done by sampling soil, said Hoffman, one of the study’s authors. “It was really a way to get faculty from all over the place involved and able to answer the questions they were interested in.”

The GDSCN created the BioDiversity and Informatics for Genomics Scholars (BioDIGS) initiative to address some of the knowledge gaps in soil biodiversity as well as train students and faculty in genomic data science by including participants from a range of institutions, from research-focused universities to community colleges.

Students at United Tribes Technical College collect soil samples at their campus in Bismarck, N.D. Credit: Emily Biggane

To take part in the project, participants are sent preassembled soil collection kits. Participants obtain permission to sample soil from their chosen sites—such as college campuses, parks, urban corridors, hiking trails, and spaces with local significance—and follow a specific protocol for sample collection. Students and faculty members then capture the GPS coordinates and images from each site and choose 16–24 sampling spots within a 100-meter area.

After collecting the soil, participants send their samples to Johns Hopkins University. From there, the samples are routed to labs at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory in New York for genome sequencing and to the University of Delaware for chemical testing. Resulting data are uploaded to national research databases.

“One thing that is important is to bridge that disconnect between a sample as a data point on screen and its place of being: where it came from, how it got to the lab, and its story,” said cellular and molecular biologist Emily Biggane, one of the study’s authors and a research faculty member at the United Tribes Technical College’s Intertribal Research and Resource Center in North Dakota. “That connection is really important for our students. The land is something that’s honored and celebrated. Our students are very interested in learning about the soil that supports us.”

Unearthing Information

The soil sites sampled in the project ranged from the playgrounds and parks of Baltimore to a former Superfund site in Georgia, from urban Seattle to land under development at a college campus in Bismarck, N.D. “Understanding how different clades of bacteria vary across all our sites and how they vary with things like heavy metal concentration and pH and climate—that’s been pretty cool to see,” Hoffman said.

Continued sampling across these sites—and others that may become part of later incarnations of the project, as it continues to grow—can also help researchers understand how soil microbial communities respond to the effects of climate change. “Repeated sampling across sites in North America may help us to discover fragile soil ecosystems where microbial communities are undergoing rapid change,” Marie Schaedel, a soil microbiologist at Oregon State University who was not involved in the research, said in an email to Eos.

“At the end of the day, documenting soil biodiversity is not a problem that a single scientist can solve. We need a ton of people to do this.”

“Citizen science research like this benefits both science and society. It increases the amount of data on microbiomes in diverse soil habitats,” said Schaedel. “It also has the potential to motivate the next generation of researchers by making the research accessible and personal.”

While this project advances understanding of soil biodiversity, education is an important aspect of the work as well. More than 100 students participated in the first round of soil collection and research. Through hands-on sampling, data analysis, and interdisciplinary collaboration, students are gaining an understanding of the ways that ecology, climate, and human health intersect through soil, Hoffman said. The more microbial and bacterial genomes that are assembled, the greater the chance of discovering the next pathogen or the next cure is, she added. “At the end of the day, documenting soil biodiversity is not a problem that a single scientist can solve. We need a ton of people to do this.”

—Rebecca Owen (@beccapox.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Owen, R. (2026), Nationwide soil microbiome mapping project connects students and scientists, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260046. Published on 3 February 2026. Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Visualizing and Hearing the Brittle–Plastic Transition

EOS - Tue, 02/03/2026 - 13:30
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth

The deformation of Earth materials can occur either in a “brittle” manner, mediated by fractures whose propagation radiates elastic waves, or through “intracrystalline plasticity,” governed by the motion of crystalline defects and generally considered to be largely aseismic. However, within the “brittle–plastic transition,” these mechanisms are expected to coexist. Moreover, if intracrystalline defect propagation is sufficiently rapid and accompanied by stress release, it may also theoretically generate elastic waves.

O’ Ghaffari et al. [2026] present the first experiments in which optical, mechanical, and acoustic measurements are acquired simultaneously during the propagation of intracrystalline defects (twin boundaries) in calcite single crystals. High-speed imaging, reaching up to 12,500 frames per second, is combined with multiple ultrasonic sensors sampling up to 50 million samples per second, allowing deformation processes to be resolved across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales.

The experiments capture the evolution of both brittle microcracks and crystal-plastic twins as they propagate through the crystal. Direct comparison of image sequences and acoustic records demonstrates that these two deformation mechanisms generate distinct ultrasonic signals. In particular, subtle differences in waveform characteristics are linked to the physical nature of the defect source. This distinction provides a new basis for separating brittle and plastic deformation signals in acoustic emission data. The results have important implications for laboratory studies and for interpreting acoustic monitoring data in geological and other semi-brittle materials.

Citation: O’ Ghaffari, H., Peč, M., Cross, A. J., Mittal, T., & Mok, U. (2026). Brittle and crystal-plastic defect dynamics of calcite single crystals. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 131, e2025JB032846. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JB032846

Marie Violay, Associate Editor, JGR: Solid Earth

Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

The 2 February 2026 landslide on the Ionian motorway between Arta and Amfilochia

EOS - Tue, 02/03/2026 - 07:55

An unusual failure has occurred on a cut slope adjacent to a key road in Greece.

On 2 February 2026 a major, fascinating landslide occurred on the A5 Ionian motorway between Arta and Amfilochia in Greece. The location appears to be [39.07754, 21.09861]. The news site ekathimerini has a story providing the details, which includes this extraordinary image of the aftermath of the landslide:-

The 2 February 2026 landslide on the Ionian motorway in Greece. Image from ERT via ekathimerini.

I believe that the Google Earth image below shows the configuration of the site in 2023:-

Google Earth image showing the site of the 2 February 2026 landslide on the Ionian motorway in Greece.

So, this is a large cut slope that appears to have been formed in about 2015 (based on Google Earth imagery). The failure is quite complex, with most of the landslide moving as a large block (which has fractured in the late stage of movement). There is a large displacement on the far side of the landslide (in the photograph view), so there has been some rotation around an approximately vertical axis. The landslide does not appear to have been conventionally rotational.

To me, this suggests failure on an existing plane of weakness in the slope. The news report indicate that the landslide occurred after heavy rainfall.

This is a Google Streetview of the landslide site from September 2023:-

Google Streetview image showing the site of the 2 February 2026 landslide on the Ionian motorway in Greece.

It appears that the slope has rockbolts, which suggests that there was an awareness of the potential for instability. Perhaps they were insufficiently long to prevent this failure? The presence of the rockbolts may explain why the landslide moved as a predominantly intact block, though.

The Ionian motorway is now closed. There are similar slopes along the road, so the investigation of this failure may have wider implications.

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Destination Earth digital twin to improve AI climate and weather predictions

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 02/03/2026 - 05:30
An agreement on the third implementation phase of Destination Earth (DestinE), the European Commission's initiative to develop a highly accurate digital twin of Earth, has been signed between the European Commission and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The third phase will start in June 2026 and end in June 2028.

New data tool boosts preparedness for potentially deadly flooding

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 02/03/2026 - 00:50
When extreme weather strikes, the preparations of emergency planners can have life-or-death consequences. In July 2025, central Texas flooded with disastrous consequences, killing more than 130 people.

Enhanced Visualization of Rainfall Infiltration in Landslides Using High-Resolution 4D Noise-based Velocity Change Imaging

Geophysical Journal International - Tue, 02/03/2026 - 00:00
SummaryLandslide disasters are typically triggered by various environmental factors, making it crucial to understand the interaction between subtle internal changes and these factors for accurate risk assessment. Noise-based velocity change measurement offers a promising tool, yet its widespread application is limited by the inherent instability of noise sources, constraining temporal resolution. Here, we employ an wave-packet-based nine-component spatial stacking approach with a dense seismic array deployed at the Xishan Village landslide. This advancement allows for the extraction of extraction of high temporal velocity change (20-minute) at different frequencies, enabling four-dimensional dynamic analysis of landslide internal changes. Our findings reveal complex spatial distributions of velocity changes influenced by solar thermal radiation and rainfall at different locations and depths. Notably, during rainfall of approximately 20 mm, the observed maximum velocity reduction correlates closely with a fracture zone at ∼8 m depth, suggesting that pre-existing deformation structures significantly enhance local permeability, and promote the now deeper rainwater infiltration. This infiltration leads to increased pore pressure and velocity reduction. These results highlight the ambient noise method potential for urban landslide monitoring, providing technical support for early warning and risk assessment.

Tibet's tectonic clash: New satellite view suggests weaker fault lines

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 02/02/2026 - 23:50
A study on tectonic plates that converge on the Tibetan Plateau has shown that Earth's fault lines are far weaker and the continents are less rigid than scientists previously thought. This finding is based on ground-monitoring satellite data. The study, published in Science, includes several high-resolution maps based on data from Copernicus Sentinel-1 satellites. It shows how the region is being stretched and squeezed by Earth's geological movements.

Unraveling the physics behind Kamchatka's 73-year earthquake cycle

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 02/02/2026 - 23:20
A research team from University of Tsukuba and collaborating institutions has clarified why M9-class megathrust earthquakes recur off the Kamchatka Peninsula with an unusually short cycle of 73 years. By analyzing the rupture process of the 2025 event, the team demonstrated that this earthquake exhibited complex behavior that cannot be explained by conventional seismic-cycle models.

Using data to reduce subjectivity in landslide susceptibility mapping

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 02/02/2026 - 23:10
In recent years, numerous landslides on hillsides in urban and rural areas have underscored that understanding and predicting these phenomena is more than an academic curiosity—it is a human necessity. When unstable slopes give way after intense rainfall, the consequences can be devastating, with both human and material losses. These recurring tragedies led us to a simple yet powerful question: Can we build landslide susceptibility maps that are more objective, transparent, and useful for local authorities and residents?

Unexpected climate feedback links Antarctic ice sheet with reduced carbon uptake

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 02/02/2026 - 22:30
A study in Nature Geoscience reveals that changes in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) closely tracked marine algae growth in the Southern Ocean over previous glacial cycles, but not in the way scientists expected. The key factor is iron-rich sediments transported by icebergs from West Antarctica.

Distinct isotopes of combustion-derived water vapor identified

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 02/02/2026 - 22:20
Water vapor (H2Ov) is an essential component of Earth's atmosphere, playing critical roles in climate regulation, weather patterns, and the water cycle. Its sources primarily come from natural processes such as ocean evaporation and terrestrial evapotranspiration. However, during the fossil fuels (e.g., coal, petroleum, natural gas) combustion process, in addition to emitting substantial amounts of CO2, they also generate significant amounts of water vapor as a byproduct (combustion-derived water vapor sources: CDWV).

Swarm of earthquakes jolts California's San Ramon area—largest so far is 4.2

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 02/02/2026 - 22:05
An ongoing string of more than a dozen earthquakes in less than 90 minutes early Monday ended what had been some recent calm from recent weeks of shaking ground in the region, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Theme by Danetsoft and Danang Probo Sayekti inspired by Maksimer