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Covariance-Based Estimation Performance for In-Flight Calibration of NASA’s ACS3 Solar Sail

Publication date: Available online 28 October 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Andrea Minervino Amodio, Livio Carzana, Dominic Dirkx, Jeannette Heiligers

Ground Validation of Dust Multi-properties Analyzer Onboard Tianwen-2

Publication date: Available online 27 October 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Xu Tan, Cunhui Li, Jiajie Wang, Zhongcheng Mu, Zecheng Cui, Meng Chen, Xin Ren, Xiaodong Liu, Yan Su, Wei Wang, Renhao Tian, Jiawei Li

Generation of oppositely propagating Alfvén waves by a substorm-injected proton cloud

Publication date: Available online 27 October 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Ekaterina E. Smotrova, Olga S. Mikhailova, Pavel. N. Mager, Aleksandr V. Rubtsov

Seismic study sheds light on factors that led to 2025 Myanmar supershear rupture

Phys.org: Earth science - Sat, 11/01/2025 - 12:30
Recently, Science put out an article detailing new research on the Myanmar earthquake that occurred on March 28, 2025. In one of these studies, Shengji Wei and colleagues analyze data on the event and provide insight on multiple factors that lead to these rare and devastating supershear ruptures. Their research was published this week.

Humanity is on path toward 'climate chaos,' scientists warn

Phys.org: Earth science - Sat, 11/01/2025 - 12:20
Industries and individuals around the world burned record amounts of oil, gas and coal last year, releasing more greenhouse gases than ever before, a group of leading scientists said in a new report, warning that humanity is hurtling toward "climate chaos."

Abandoned coal mine drainage identified as a significant source of carbon emissions

Phys.org: Earth science - Sat, 11/01/2025 - 11:13
For the past 250 years, people have mined coal industrially in Pennsylvania, U.S.. By 1830, the city of Pittsburgh was using more than 400 tons of the fossil fuel every day. Burning all that coal has contributed to climate change. Additionally, unremediated mines—especially those that operated before Congress passed regulations in 1977—have leaked environmentally harmful mine drainage. But that might not be the end of their legacy.

Explorers seek ancient Antarctica ice in climate change study

Phys.org: Earth science - Sat, 11/01/2025 - 11:05
An explorer and a glaciologist have embarked on a three-month mission to cross part of Antarctica on kite skis in search of ice that is 130,000 years old.

Voicing Farmers’ Concerns on the Future of Agriculture

EOS - Fri, 10/31/2025 - 18:03
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Community Science

A new study by Hopkins et al. [2025], which was recently published in Community Science’s special collection on “Transdisciplinary Collaboration for Sustainable Agriculture,” looks at how small- and mid-scale farmers and ranchers see the future of agriculture. It also examines how uncertainty about that future affects their mental health, decision-making, and ability to keep their farms running.

The authors interviewed 31 farmers in Georgia, asking about the challenges they face. These included money problems, a shrinking farm workforce, more complex regulations, and difficulties in passing farms on to the next generation. Many of these personal concerns were tied to bigger worries about agriculture overall, such as the growing gap between farmers and non-farmers, the rise of corporate-owned farms, changing weather patterns, and possible risks to the country’s food supply. These challenges often left farmers feeling alone, undervalued, and discouraged.

The study gives a rare long-term view of how farming communities can remain sustainable and resilient. It calls for strategies and policies that truly reflect farmers’ experiences and concerns—both for today’s problems and for future challenges—and that address not just immediate issues but also the deeper, systemic causes of stress in agriculture.

Citation: Hopkins, N., Weatherly, C., Reece, C., & Proctor, C. (2025). “At some point, you just run out of road”: Farmers’ concerns about the future of agriculture. Community Science, 4, e2025CSJ000140. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025CSJ000140

—Claire Beveridge, Editor, Community Science

Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Contrasting optical properties of fine particulate matter in Seoul and Mexico City highlight climate impacts

Phys.org: Earth science - Fri, 10/31/2025 - 15:10
Severe fine dust pollution over Seoul and Mexico City, being composed of the same type of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), exhibits markedly different characteristics. Seoul's air tends to reflect sunlight, contributing to a cooling effect on Earth, whereas Mexico City's particles are more inclined to absorb sunlight, potentially accelerating global warming.

Serendipity in Space: NASA’s Eye in the Sky

EOS - Fri, 10/31/2025 - 15:05
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: AGU Advances

NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) was the first space-based sensor designed to study the Earth’s global carbon cycle and retrieves precise and accurate measurements of column CO2 from which fluxes of carbon over land and ocean may be inferred. The spectroscopic measurements, calibrated against an in-situ network, sample the atmosphere so that regional-to-continental fluxes can be quantified.

Svoboda et al. [2025] point out the enormous societal value of the OCO-2 observations from these satellites that in the normal course of events could continue providing gold-standard data for another decade.

Over its decade-plus in operation, OCO-2 has unraveled long-standing mysteries (Liu et al., 2017) and quantified massive events like the Australian fires in 2019-2020 (Byrne et al., 2021). Its most unexpected result was not from the CO2 retrieval, but rather from a serendipitous by-product! By virtue of its spectral resolution, OCO-2 ‘sees’ the faint glow, invisible to the naked eye, plants produce as chlorophyl molecules absorb photons. This glow, quantified, has turned about to be an extraordinary tool for studying plants and has proved to be amongst the most sensitive early warning signs of plant stress. It is well on its way to being a crucial way of measuring growth and anticipating stress in forest and agricultural landscapes, yet the mission is proposed for early termination.

Citation: Svoboda, M., Kira, O., Sun, Y., Smith, W. K., Magney, T., Wood, J. D., & Parazoo, N. C. (2025). Monitoring the pulse of America’s natural resources from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory missions. AGU Advances, 6, e2025AV002063. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV002063

—David Schimel, Editor, AGU Advances

Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

How ship's logs have shaped our understanding of the sea

Phys.org: Earth science - Fri, 10/31/2025 - 13:11
What drives a wealthy Danish-Norwegian general to delve into ship's logs and become almost obsessed with understanding ocean currents in the 1800s? And why has this amateur researcher remained unknown until now?

The Role of a Ditch in the Matrix

EOS - Fri, 10/31/2025 - 11:45

This is an audio story from Eos, your trusted source for Earth and space science news. Do you like this feature? Let us know in the comments or at eos@agu.org.

TRANSCRIPT

Emily Gardner: Before Chelsea Clifford was an environmental scientist, she was a college student, working at White Mountain Research Center at UCLA, studying bugs.

Chelsea Clifford: While everyone else was doing really glamorous fieldwork in Yosemite, Kings Canyon, places like that, I was borrowing my aunt’s ex-husband’s ’91 manual transmission Honda Civic. I didn’t really know how to do manual and was scared of taking it up in the mountains. And so, when I had the opportunity to do independent research, I had gotten kind of fascinated staring out the window all that summer at these weird decorative ditches they had in the desert, diverted from the irrigation ditches into people’s backyards in the fancier suburbs.

Gardner: Clifford set out to study the invertebrate communities in these ditches, to see how they compared to the communities in natural creeks. That work sent her down a rabbit hole, and she’s still going down.

(The sound of running water fades in).

If you’ve never really thought about ditches, you’re not alone. In fact, according to a new paper written by Clifford and dozens of other researchers, most scientists don’t think about them either. Here’s AJ Reisinger, a freshwater ecosystem ecologist and biogeochemist at the University of Florida, who was not an author of the paper.

Reisinger: I do think that ditches are understudied, particularly in terms of their ecological and environmental implications. I think that’s largely driven by the artificial nature of ditches and the fact that ecologists tend to gravitate towards natural settings, natural ecosystems, natural environments. That’s why we get into ecology in the first place, because we’re interested in the environment. And so the artificial nature of ditches kind of precludes a lot of people from being interested or wanting to work in those areas often, I think.

Gardner: And that’s a problem, some scientists say. Because ditches do more than just carry water: They can be sources or sinks of nutrients, transport pollutants, host distinct ecosystems, and even emit greenhouse gases. This is why Clifford and dozens of other scientists came together in 2023 for a workshop to raise the profile of ditch research. The group included biogeochemists, ecologists, biologists, and even archaeologists. They published a perspective paper on their work in Communications Earth and Environment.

Among these self-described “ditchologists” was Michael Peacock, a biogeochemist at the University of Liverpool, where the workshop was held, and the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences in Uppsala. He and Clifford led this paper together. They started out by—after much discussion—defining a ditch.

Peacock: I think we settled on the definition of a ditch for the paper was a linear constructed waterway that is usually filled with water and is aiming to take that water somewhere else, wherever people want it to go.

Gardner: In addition, ditches are usually narrower than 25 meters across. “Ditch” is also sort of a catchall term. Ditches used for irrigation might be called gripes, catchwaters, or dikes, whereas ditches used for transport might be called canals or waterways, for instance. As the paper points out, people might reach for these words because the word “ditch” has something of a negative connotation. To “ditch” also means “to abandon.” There’s also “dull as ditchwater” and “last-ditch efforts.”

Then the researchers laid out several of the reasons why ditches matter. Clifford gave the example of her hometown, Gloucester, Va., a sea level rise hot spot near the Chesapeake Bay. When saltwater intrusion occurs, it tends to reach ditches first, and is then transported further inland, compromising the freshwater used for crop irrigation or even drinking. Saltwater intrusion can also cause marsh migration, in which salt-tolerant crops move farther inland, and sometimes interfere with agriculture.

Clifford: Basically, what’s happening to the landscape as a whole is often happening to ditches first. Ditches are often headwaters of larger water bodies. So water may, you know, pass through them before going further downstream. So that can be a good spot to monitor and potentially intervene before there are larger issues.

Gardner: The paper points out that ditches can transport materials including microplastics, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, trace metals, pathogens, and PFAS [per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances]. These can affect humans, of course, and also the animal and plant communities in and around ditches.

Gea van der Lee is an aquatic ecology researcher at Wageningen University [and Research] in the Netherlands—a nation home to more than 300,000 kilometers, or about 186,000 miles, of ditches, or canals. In the Netherlands, she said, ditches are seen as a way to drain the land, but their role as a space for biodiversity is overlooked: They host bugs, plants, amphibians, and other animal life. A few years ago, she led a project that found that recording the sounds made in ditches can improve understanding of metabolism in ditches, because it can capture low-frequency sounds, like these, that may correspond to photosynthesis.

(A few seconds of a low-pitched sound play.)

Here’s van der Lee.

Reading List

Lines in the Landscape
(Communications Earth and Environment paper)

Freshwater ecoacoustics: Listening to the ecological status of multi-stressed lowland waters
(Ecological Indicators paper by Gea van der Lee & colleagues)

van der Lee: I found it really nice to be together with because there’s not so many people working on ditches, and then you come together with [a] whole group of ditch nerds that are really excited about ditches.

Gardner: Of course, outside of countries like the Netherlands, ditches don’t always take up a lot of room in the landscape. But Peacock offered a biogeochemistry perspective on why ditches still shouldn’t be overlooked.

Peacock: Generally, they’re small, and we ignore them, but we know they emit a lot of greenhouse gases, particularly methane, and they can sort of exert overwhelming effects on the ecosystem-scale methane balance.

You might have a field that is drained with ditches and the field is a net sink of methane because it’s dry. But the ditches, because they’re wet, which is where the bugs that make methane like to live, the ditches emit loads of methane. And if you add up the ditches and the fields, sometimes the ditches overwhelm the fields, and the landscape can be a small net source of methane. And you would never know that if you didn’t go and look at the ditches.

Gardner: Jeremy Biggs, a freshwater biologist, CEO of the Freshwater Habitats Trust, and visiting professor at Oxford Brookes University, who was also not involved in the paper, said this effort felt timely.

Biggs: It feels quite familiar to me because it feels like the same, the same kind of approach, the same line that we’ve taken with ponds and small waters more generally, that they’ve been neglected and overlooked.

Gardner: “Small waters” include freshwaters like ponds, headwater streams, springs, seepages, and of course ditches. They’re often ignored by researchers and regulators, Biggs said, simply because they’re small.

Biggs: We just assume small things are unimportant. And everyone just assumes that a big lake is more important than a small one and a big river is more important than a small one, and that’s why they’re not in regulations, in essence. But there’s a lot of them. That’s the thing. You don’t notice them, but there’s a lot of them.

Gardner: In earlier work, Peacock came up with the rough estimate that drainage ditches alone may cover up to 10.7 million hectares, or 26 million acres, globally. All this area means there’s also a lot of life in small waters.

Biggs: Although their individual site richness, or what ecologists call alpha diversity, is less than it is for a bigger water body, just as you’d expect, when you put them together in networks, it quite often turns out that they support more species collectively than do the bigger water bodies.

Gardner: Biggs is talking about standing waters and headwater streams here, but because headwater streams are a close proxy to ditches, he said he wouldn’t be surprised if the same was true for ditches, too. Ditches are home to communities of animals like wading birds, fish, and turtles, sometimes providing the only available refuge for such animals in highly farmed or urbanized landscapes. A ditch is also home to one of the rarest plant species in the U.K., the fen ragwort.

So what’s next for ditches?

Peacock: I suppose the first step in a way is just to notice them, that to realize that they’re there and they’re everywhere and that they shouldn’t be ignored. I think in one paper I called ditches “no-man’s-land,” because all the terrestrial scientists stop at the ditch edge. “That’s a ditch. That’s nothing to do with me.” And all the limnologists, the people who study waters, see a ditch and think, “That’s not an inland water. It’s a ditch.” And they just slip through the net. And I think we need to recognize that they are there. They are important. There’s a lot of them and they’re probably doing lots of different important things, some of them positive, some of them negative.

(“Swamp Walking Blues by Chelsea Clifford fades in.)

Gardner: I’m Emily Gardner, reporting for Eos, the science news publication of AGU. You can find a reading list and a transcript for this story at Eos.org. Thank you to Chelsea Clifford, Michael Peacock, Gea van der Lee, AJ Reisinger, and Jeremy Biggs for speaking with me for this story. And an extra big thank you to Chelsea Clifford for providing the music you’re hearing right now. Thanks for listening!

—Emily Gardner (@emfurd.bsky.social), Associate Editor

Sound effect by Alexander Jauk from Pixabay

Citation: Gardner, E. (2025), The role of a ditch in the matrix, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250407. Published on 31 October 2025. Text © 2025. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

In Arctic Soils, Methane-Eating Microbes Just Might Win Out over Methane Makers

EOS - Fri, 10/31/2025 - 11:34

In the Arctic, a major variable for future climate change lives in the ground, invisible.

Microbes in the layers of soil just above the frozen permafrost metabolize carbon, turning it into carbon dioxide and methane, a far more potent greenhouse gas. As these soils warm, more carbon is being unlocked, potentially setting in motion a warming feedback loop sometimes nicknamed the “methane bomb.” Now, new research on the microbial denizens of Arctic soils indicates that such a vicious cycle may not be inevitable.

“It could be that these systems for a variety of reasons are not actually producing the methane we believe that they’re capable of producing.”

By cataloging the kinds of microbes found in permafrost soils from around the Arctic, as well as in recently thawed permafrost itself, a group of researchers delivered a clearer picture of microbial diversity in Arctic soils, as well as how those microbial communities change as their environment warms up. One key finding in their paper, recently published in Communications Earth and Environment, is that under certain conditions there could be more methane-eating microbes than methane-making microbes in the Arctic, meaning the soil could actually end up being a carbon sink.

“It could be that these systems for a variety of reasons are not actually producing the methane we believe that they’re capable of producing,” said Jessica Buser-Young, a microbiologist at the University of Alaska Anchorage not affiliated with the research.

The Microbes and the Methane

Since 2010, a consortium of scientists from Europe has been gathering permafrost samples in the Arctic, digging through topsoil and subsoil and into the permanently frozen ground below. Gathering these samples is difficult in the vast, remote, and frozen northern reaches of the world, but the group retrieved samples from across Canada, Greenland, and Siberia.

In the new paper, the researchers conducted genomic analyses of the microbiome of eight pan-Arctic permafrost and soil samples as well as samples of both intact and degraded permafrost near Fairbanks, Alaska. They focused specifically on microbes, comprising both bacteria and archaea, that either release or consume methane, a greenhouse gas that can be 30 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

When the researchers looked at the data, the first surprise came from the lack of diversity among both methane-producing microbes, or methanogens, and methane-consuming microbes, or methanotrophs, said study coauthor Tim Urich, a microbiologist at the University of Greifswald in Germany.

Among methanotrophs, a single genus, Methylobacter, dominated samples at every location. These bacteria are found across the Arctic, often living in soil layers just above their methanogen counterparts, consuming the methane that bubbles up from below. Why this single genus has been so successful isn’t yet known, Urich said.

The analysis “really calls for studying representatives of this specific clade in more detail to understand the ecophysiology and their response to changing conditions in the soil,” Urich said.

Possibly Defusing the Methane Bomb

Urich and his coauthors also looked at sites where permafrost had thawed, comparing wet and dry locations. The site with sodden soils held more methanogenic microbes, which thrived in the oxygen-deprived conditions. At dry sites, by contrast, methanotrophic microbes won out, especially a variety with the unique ability to take methane from the air and turn it into less potent carbon dioxide. While these facultative methanotrophs have the ability to metabolize atmospheric methane, researchers noted, they don’t necessarily do it in practice.

“It really depends on the hydrologic fate of these soils.”

Regardless, Urich said, the upshot is that a warmer, drier Arctic may be a boon for the changing climate.

“It really depends on the hydrologic fate of these soils,” he said.

If the Arctic ends up on the dry end of the spectrum, its soils could become a net sink for methane (though not a large one) as microbes begin sucking gas from the air. The mechanism described by Urich and his colleagues is not the only potential negative methane feedback loop, either. In a recent paper in AGU Advances, Buser-Young and her coauthors found that microbes in Alaska’s Copper River Delta that use iron for their metabolism have begun outcompeting those that produce methane, potentially reducing methane emissions.

“We believe that this could be happening potentially everywhere there’s glaciers in the world,” Buser-Young said.

What studies like Urich’s are making clear is that while thawing Arctic permafrost is an obvious sign of climate change, its contribution to warming is less apparent, said Christian Knoblauch, a biogeochemist at the University of Hamburg who was not involved with the research.

“We had so many papers about this methane bomb,” he said. “I think this was an oversimplification or an overestimation of methane release.”

Future of Methane Still Uncertain

Researchers are still hampered by a paucity of data about the changing Arctic.

High on Urich’s list of potentially valuable datasets are studies on the ecophysiology of the methane-associated microbes he and his colleagues found in Arctic soils. Such studies would provide more data on how microbe metabolism changes in response to warming temperatures and varying levels of oxygen, among other things.

Urich also cautioned that his research did not measure levels of methane release or uptake from Arctic soils, leaving unanswered the question of the microbes’ actual impact on the environment.

Knoblauch reiterated the need for more data, noting that we still cannot say with certainty whether the future Arctic will be more wet or more dry and therefore what methane release will look like.

“We have a lot of models, and there are a lot of simulations, but we do not have so much data on the ground,” he said. “I think the big questions are really how fast is the material decomposed, how much will thaw and in [what] time it is decomposed and then released, and how the system will be affected by changing vegetation.”

—Nathaniel Scharping (@nathanielscharp), Science Writer

Citation: Scharping, N. (2025), In Arctic soils, methane-eating microbes just might win out over methane makers, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250400. Published on 31 October 2025. Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

REDD+ Results and Realities

EOS - Fri, 10/31/2025 - 11:33

Tropical forests are biodiversity hot spots; preserving them is a crucial part of global efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change. When these verdant ecosystems are destroyed, they release millions of metric tons of carbon dioxide each year, emissions numbers second only to those driven by fossil fuel consumption.

A host of international efforts have emerged to help curb tropical forest loss. The Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries (REDD+) program, established in 2005, is a United Nations–supported initiative for countries to sustainably manage and conserve forested land to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Countries receive financial incentives to preserve and maintain their forests—compensation intended to make forests more valuable intact than cut down.

There are more than 350 REDD+ projects worldwide, and in many project locations, habitats have been protected, and deforestation has slowed.

Many other projects, however, may not be delivering results as hoped, and their climate benefits may be overstated. A new study from an international team of researchers quantifies these concerns, suggesting that only 19% of REDD+ projects met their emissions targets and even fewer met their deforestation goals. But, the authors suggest, REDD+ shouldn’t be abandoned. Instead, it needs to be fixed.

REDD+ in Review

Most REDD+ projects are funded through the program’s sale of carbon credits, which are permits that represent 1 metric ton of carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere. The companies, communities, or individuals that voluntarily buy carbon credits are doing so to offset their own emissions. By 2021, REDD+ projects accounted for two thirds of the 227.7 million land use carbon offsets traded (excluding agriculture) and represented $1.3 billion in market value. (Land use carbon credits include forest, wetland, and grassland conservation. Other carbon offsets include renewable energy projects and technology-based solutions such as carbon capture.)

In recent years, scientists and stakeholders have started to question the efficacy of REDD+ programs. Critics say some projects either fail to reduce deforestation or the results are smaller than claimed.

Many REDD+ projects lack additionality, explained Thales A. P. West, an environmental scientist at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. Additionality describes the concept of determining whether a project’s emissions reductions would happen without carbon credit revenue.

“Reductions are estimated based on a baseline scenario: What would have happened in the absence of the project. The more ‘catastrophic’ the baseline deforestation is, the more credits projects can claim. Thus, there is an incentive for project developers to exaggerate project baselines,” said West, who was not an author of the recent study.

Real REDD+ Results

To assess REDD+ efforts, researchers examined 66 REDD+ project units across tropical regions in 12 countries, focusing on avoiding unplanned deforestation (AUD) projects. AUD projects are a major component of REDD+ efforts to protect forests from small-scale farming, logging, and fuelwood use.

Researchers used a synthetic control method, a type of statistical analysis in which they compared areas with REDD+ projects in place with nearby locations that shared the REDD+ area’s environment and socioeconomic conditions. By comparing forest loss in the REDD+ area with its counterpart where no REDD+ interventions had occurred, the scientists could estimate the true impact of the REDD+ project. Finally, they compared these findings with the data reported as part of the REDD+ projects themselves to evaluate whether the carbon credits issued were backed by a real reduction in deforestation.

“We followed up on previous work that said, ‘Hey, you know, when you get the math right, this mechanism doesn’t seem very effective.’”

Twenty-one out of the 66 REDD+ sites studied (32%) showed significantly lowered deforestation—meaning successful climate mitigation. At one site in the Brazilian Amazon, deforestation rates were cut by up to 99%.

But other project sites painted a less positive picture. Seventeen percent of the REDD+ project areas showed increased deforestation compared with their controls. Thirty-five percent of the projects reported deforestation baselines that were 10 times higher than the researchers’ estimates, especially at sites in Colombia. When the researchers compared forest loss with reported carbon credits, only 13.2% could be verified by actual forest preservation, throwing the validity of the carbon credit system into question.

“We followed up on previous work that said, ‘Hey, you know, when you get the math right, this mechanism doesn’t seem very effective,’” said Jonathan Chase, an ecologist from the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research and one of the study’s authors. “We show that these credits are not at the level that one would hope they could be.”

The Future of REDD+

This new study is important, West explained, because “it corroborates previous findings and contributes to the growing scientific evidence that many REDD projects do not deliver what they claim, consequently compromising the environmental integrity of their carbon offsets.”

“I think we can certainly do a better job with the statistics, but ultimately, it comes down to doing a better job with protecting these habitats.”

Despite the variable results from the REDD+ project areas covered in the new study, many sites still showed improvements, leading researchers to suggest that this program doesn’t need to be abandoned entirely, just reorganized or reformed. More attention could be paid to shifting political and economic trends, as those social factors can shape patterns of deforestation occurring in a particular country or region. Stricter baselines, increased transparency, and stronger oversight might also help build a more robust REDD+ program.

“I think we can certainly do a better job with the statistics, but ultimately, it comes down to doing a better job with protecting these habitats,” said Chase.

—Rebecca Owen (@beccapox, @beccapox.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Owen, R. (2025), REDD+ results and realities, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250408. Published on 31 October 2025. Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Observation of the transverse modulation effect of two-stream instability on low-energy proton beam in low-density plasma

Physical Review E (Plasma physics) - Fri, 10/31/2025 - 10:00

Author(s): Guo-Dong Wang, Ke-Wei Tao, Rui Cheng, Wang-Wen Xu, Jun-Yu Dong, Lin-Hua Zhen, Zhao Wang, Ze-Xian Zhou, Lu-Lin Shi, Yu-Peng Chen, Jin-Fu Zhang, Yan-Hong Chen, Xue-Jian Jin, Xiao-Xia Wu, Yu Lei, Yu-Yu Wang, Zhang-Hu Hu, Yan-Shi Zhang, and Jie Yang

In the field of inertial confinement fusion and ion beam-driven high-energy-density physics, the energy deposition along the beam trajectory is a critical physical parameter. Beyond particle collisions, the collective effects of plasma can significantly affect ion transport. The development of two-s…


[Phys. Rev. E 112, 045219] Published Fri Oct 31, 2025

The 31 October 2025 landslide at Kukas in Enga Province, Papua New Guinea

EOS - Fri, 10/31/2025 - 08:07

An early morning landslide, triggered by heavy rainfall, killed at least 22 people in rural PNG.

At about 2 am on 31 October 2025, a landslide struck a rural community at Kukas in Enga Province, Papua New Guinea. News reports suggest that it was triggered by heavy rainfall and that 22 bodies have been recovered to date, but that the final toll may be as high as 30 people.

Loyal readers will know that tracking down landslides in rural PNG is a major challenge – the quality of baseline mapping of villages is quite poor. However, an ABC News report indicates that the landslide occurred in the vicinity of Pausa, so I think the most likely location is in the region of [-5.67878, 143.91848]:-

The likely location of the 25 October 2025 landslide at Kukas in PNG. Image from Google Maps.

We will need to wait for Planet imagery to confirm, noting of course that PNG is notoriously cloudy.

There is a post on Facebook by a local from Kukas, Ben Mcpitu, that contains a short video of the site. Please be cautious, the post includes an picture of some of the victims. The post is here. It also includes a video of the aftermath of the landslide, from which this is a still:-

The aftermath of the 25 October 2025 landslide at Kukas in PNG. Still from a video posted to Facebook by Ben Mcpitu.

Assuming that this is indeed the site, this appears to have been a failure high on the slope in a natural gully. Note that the regolith has been stripped backin the mid-slope area, possibly to bedrock. The news reports indicate that at least one house, and possibly as many as three houses, were directly in the path of the landslide. Given the timing in the early hours of the morning, there would have been little chance to escape. However, the ABC report also describes the capricious nature of risk:

Mr Tumu [the deputy principal at a nearby school] said the dead were mostly visitors from a neighbouring village about 5 kilometres away that was undergoing local government elections.

“It came in force, and then it just covered the old house that they stayed [in] last night,” he said.

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2023. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Time-domain inversion for source functions and receiver coupling with an application to a seismic full-waveform crosshole data set

Geophysical Journal International - Fri, 10/31/2025 - 00:00
AbstractTomography based on full waveforms is an important tool for characterising the subsurface. However, systemic artefacts in the recorded data must be removed prior to the imaging process to fully utilise the information contained in the data. Especially for near-surface surveys, the coupling between sources/receivers and the medium can introduce significant distortions in the recorded data. We present two novel time-domain FWI approaches that account for the interaction between sources, receivers, and the subsurface. The first approach does not impose any restrictions on the shape of the source wavelet, except that it must be compact in time (TC inversion) such that the computation of synthetic seismograms is feasible. In the second approach, we assume that the source wavelet can be approximated with a Ricker wavelet, and we invert only for the three parameters describing a Ricker wavelet (SP inversion). Both algorithms have been tested with synthetic crosshole data. The SP approach is slightly superior to the TC inversion when the true wavelet is indeed a Ricker wavelet. However, the TC inversion outperforms the SP approach when the true source wavelet is not well approximated with a Ricker wavelet. This is demonstrated with a field data set acquired in boreholes at a CO2injection test site in Svelvik (Norway).

Ocean iron fertilization or artificial ocean alkalinization? Study reveals divergent effects on climate

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 10/30/2025 - 21:00
Global warming poses a significant threat to human society. Rapid and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are necessary measures to mitigate global warming. However, substantially reduced emissions alone may not be sufficient to achieve the temperature control targets of the Paris Agreement.

Rising Temperature and Decreasing Snow Cover Increase Soil Breakdown

EOS - Thu, 10/30/2025 - 19:58
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: AGU Advances

Global warming is expected to affect freezing and thawing (FT) water in the ground, thus changing the dynamics of rock and soil breakdown and weathering. To investigate trends in FT induced erosion, and the conditions leading to relevant impact, researchers employ numerical models calibrated to match field observations.

Kido et al. [2025] investigate FT processes in the Pekerebetsu River basin, Hokkaido, Japan, and show the key role played by snow, which insulates the ground thus decreasing the impact of warming. The results show that changes in FT under increasing temperature and snow cover are regulated by the interaction of insulation, warming and current state of FT processes. Some areas experience little change in FT because effects from increasing temperatures are offset by decreasing insulation. Other areas where such offsetting is weak may display increases in FT and, therefore, increased weathering.

Citation: Kido, R., Inoue, T., & Johnson, J. P. L. (2025). Predicting changes in hillslope freeze–thaw potential due to climate change. AGU Advances, 6, e2025AV001810. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025AV001810

—Alberto Montanari, Editor-in-Chief, AGU Advances

Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Beavers are Not Concerned About Groundwater

EOS - Thu, 10/30/2025 - 19:35
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Water Resources Research

There is a consensus that beaver dams with associated ponding and floodplain inundation have a strong influence on ambient hydrologic and hydrogeologic conditions in mountainous alluvial valleys. However, very little quantitative information is available that sheds light on the impact on groundwater recharge and flow patterns.

In their comprehensive field and modeling study, Wang et al. [2025] show how vertical infiltration from flooded areas interacts with underflow in permeable gravel layers. Utilizing observations, sophisticated modeling, and efficient machine learning technologies, they are able identify flow patterns and rates. They also address uncertainty in groundwater storage changes and sensitivity to e.g. floodplain geometry, subsurface layering and heterogeneity in hydraulic subsurface properties. The ratio between the vertical flux and the underflow rules the flow patterns and is also key in solute transport, which has major implication for renaturation projects and water quality. A straightforward analytical solution is proposed that is transferable and can be used with remote sensing data for water balance estimations.

MODFLOW model discretization: A) Cross-section of the MODFLOW model discretization, including the soil layer, gravel bed, beaver dam, and pond level. B) Map view of the river extent colored by the constant head boundary condition for the baseflow steady state simulation. The labeled cross-section indicates the location for the cross section in A. Credit: Wang et al. [2025], Figure 4

Citation: Wang, L., Babey, T., Perzan, Z., Pierce, S., Briggs, M., Boye, K., & Maher, K. (2025). Quantifying groundwater response and uncertainty in beaver-influenced mountainous floodplains using machine learning-based model calibration. Water Resources Research, 61, e2024WR039192. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024WR039192

—Stefan Kollet, Editor, Water Resources Research

Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

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