Brief communication: Storm Daniel flood impact in Greece in 2023: mapping crop and livestock exposure from synthetic-aperture radar (SAR)
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2375–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, 2024
About 820 km2 of agricultural land was inundated in central Greece due to Storm Daniel. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~ 30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimate that more than 14 000 ornithoids and 21 500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
Comparing components for seismic risk modelling using data from the 2019 Le Teil (France) earthquake
Konstantinos Trevlopoulos, Pierre Gehl, Caterina Negulescu, Helen Crowley, and Laurentiu Danciu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2383–2401, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2383-2024, 2024
The models used to estimate the probability of exceeding a level of earthquake damage are essential to the reduction of disasters. These models consist of components that may be tested individually; however testing these types of models as a whole is challenging. Here, we use observations of damage caused by the 2019 Le Teil earthquake and estimations from other models to test components of seismic risk models.
Using deep learning to integrate paleoclimate and global biogeochemistry over the Phanerozoic Eon
Dongyu Zheng, Andrew S. Merdith, Yves Goddéris, Yannick Donnadieu, Khushboo Gurung, and Benjamin J. W. Mills
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5413–5429, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5413-2024, 2024
This study uses a deep learning method to upscale the time resolution of paleoclimate simulations to 1 million years. This improved resolution allows a climate-biogeochemical model to more accurately predict climate shifts. The method may be critical in developing new fully continuous methods that are able to be applied over a moving continental surface in deep time with high resolution at reasonable computational expense.
Global application of a regional frequency analysis to extreme sea levels
Thomas P. Collings, Niall D. Quinn, Ivan D. Haigh, Joshua Green, Izzy Probyn, Hamish Wilkinson, Sanne Muis, William V. Sweet, and Paul D. Bates
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2403–2423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, 2024
Coastal areas are at risk of flooding from rising sea levels and extreme weather events. This study applies a new approach to estimating the likelihood of coastal flooding around the world. The method uses data from observations and computer models to create a detailed map of where these coastal floods might occur. The approach can predict flooding in areas for which there are few or no data available. The results can be used to help prepare for and prevent this type of flooding.
Dynamics and Impacts of Monsoon-Induced Geological Hazards: A 2022 Flood Study along the Swat River in Pakistan
Nazir Ahmed Bazai, Mehtab Alam, Peng Cui, Wang Hao, Adil Poshad Khan, Muhammad Waseem, Yao Shunyu, Muhammad Ramzan, Li Wanhong, and Tashfain Ahmed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-95,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This study examines the 2022 monsoon in the Swat River basin, Pakistan, where record rainfall exceeded averages by 7–8 %, causing catastrophic debris flows and floods. These events worsened challenges for low-income communities, resulting in extensive damage and financial instability. Field investigations, remote sensing, and simulations identified deforestation and steep topography as key factors. The study advocates for disaster mitigation, reforestation, and better land use planning.
Abstract
The growth of newly formed particles through new particle formation (NPF) contributes a significant fraction to the cloud condensation nuclei, yet the driving mechanisms remain unclear, especially for polluted environments. To investigate the potential species contributing for nanoparticle growth in environments with significant anthropogenic influences, we measured the hygroscopicity of newly formed particles at 20–40 nm at a rural observational site in the North China Plain during winter 2018. Our results demonstrate that these particles were not very hygroscopic, with the mean hygroscopicity parameter κ of 0.13 ± 0.09. Clear differences in the inferred κ of the growing material responsible for the growth were observed among different events, indicating that even at the same region, the compounds driving particle growth may not be identical. This may be synergistically influenced by the NPF precursors, oxidants and meteorological conditions, suggesting complex mechanisms might co-exist behind nanoparticle growth in polluted environments.
Abstract
Satellite-retrieved vegetation optical depth (VOD) has provided extensive insights into global plant function (such as, carbon stocks, water stress, crop yields) because of VOD's ability to monitor plant water stress and biomass at near daily temporal frequency under all-weather conditions. However, arguably, the greatest challenge with broadly applying VOD is its lack of validation partly because of VOD's simultaneous sensitivity to plant water status and biomass changes, as well as intensive methods required to measure these properties in-situ. Here, inspired by the recent Yao et al. (2024), https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107121 article, I argue that VOD estimated from global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) and land surface models with plant hydraulic schemes are two emerging methods that show promise for more widely validating satellite-based VOD. I encourage wider adoption of these approaches to validate and further advance satellite-based VOD research.
Abstract
Chorus waves are intense electromagnetic emissions critical in modulating electron dynamics. In this study, we perform two-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations to investigate self-consistent wave-particle interactions with oblique chorus waves. We first analyze the electron dynamics sampled from cyclotron and Landau resonances with waves, and then quantify the advection and diffusion coefficients through statistical studies. It is found that phase-trapped cyclotron resonant electrons satisfy the second-order resonance condition and gain energy from waves. While phase-bunched cyclotron resonant electrons cannot remain in resonance for long periods. They transfer energy to waves and are scattered to smaller pitch angles. Landau resonant electrons are primarily energized by waves. For both types of resonances, advection coefficients are greater than diffusion coefficients when the wave amplitude is large. Our study highlights the important role of advection in electron dynamics modulation resulting from nonlinear wave-particle interactions.
Abstract
The diurnal cycle of dust aerosols on Mars is studied by analyzing lidar observations at the Phoenix landing site under cloud- and fog-free conditions and in the absence of elevated, long-range transported dust layers. There is a pronounced diurnal cycle in the dust-layer height with minimum heights of 4–6 km occurring between 11:00 and 17:00 local time. The ratio of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) within the lowermost 2 km to the total AOD reaches peak values at the same time. This can be explained by local dust emissions driven by the diurnal cycle of heating and cooling in the boundary layer. Analysis of wind and pressure measurements show that the gustiness of surface winds and the frequency of convective vortices undergo diurnal variations resembling those of AOD, indicating that these processes are the main drivers for local dust emissions.
Abstract
Southeastern New Mexico's Carlsbad Caverns National Park (CAVE) has increasingly experienced summertime ozone (O3) exceeding an 8-hr average of 70 parts per billion by volume (ppbv). The park is located in the western part of the Permian oil and natural gas (O&G) basin, where production rates have increased fivefold in the last decade. We investigate O3–precursor relationships by constraining the F0AM box model to observations of nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) and a suite of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) collected at CAVE during summer 2019. O&G-related VOCs dominated the calculated VOC reactivity with hydroxyl radicals (OH) on days when O3 concentrations were primarily controlled by local photochemistry. Radical budget analysis showed that NOx levels were high enough to impose VOC sensitivity on O3 production in the morning hours, while subsequent NOx loss through photochemical consumption led to NOx-sensitive conditions in the afternoon. Maximum daily O3 was responsive to both NOx and O&G-related VOC reductions, with NOx reductions proving most effective. The model underestimated observed O3 during a 5-day high O3 episode that was influenced by photochemically aged O&G emissions, as indicated by back-trajectory analysis, low i-/n-pentane ratios, enhanced secondary VOCs, and low ratios of NOx to total reactive oxidized nitrogen (NOy). Model-observation agreement was improved by constraining model NOx with observed NOy, which approximates NOx at the time of emission, indicating that a large fraction of O3 during this episode was formed nonlocally.
Abstract
This study assesses a 40-day 3.25-km global simulation of the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Model (SCREAMv0) using high-resolution ground-based observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon) field campaign. SCREAMv0 reasonably captures the diurnal timing of boundary layer clouds yet underestimates the boundary layer cloud fraction and mid-level congestus. SCREAMv0 well replicates the precipitation diurnal cycle, however it exhibits biases in the precipitation cluster size distribution compared to scanning radar observations. Specifically, SCREAMv0 overproduces clusters smaller than 128 km, and does not form enough large clusters. Such biases suggest an inhibition of convective upscale growth, preventing isolated deep convective clusters from evolving into larger mesoscale systems. This model bias is partially attributed to the misrepresentation of land-atmosphere coupling. This study highlights the potential use of high-resolution ground-based observations to diagnose convective processes in global storm resolving model simulations, identify key model deficiencies, and guide future process-oriented model sensitivity tests and detailed analyses.
Multi-GNSS real-time tropospheric delay retrieval based on SSR products from different analysis centers
Wanqiang Yao, Haoran Huang, Xiongwei Ma, Qi Zhang, Yibin Yao, Xiaohu Lin, Qingzhi Zhao, and Yunzheng Huang
Ann. Geophys. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/angeo-2024-8,2024
Preprint under review for ANGEO (discussion: final response, 4 comments)
There is limited discussion on the impact of SSR corrections based on different ACs on RT ZTD accuracy. In this study, RT-PPP based on multiple ACs is used to estimate the positioning performance and ZTD accuracy of SSR products based on different ACs. GNSS from 8 IGMAS stations is increased from 355 in 2023 to 14 in 2024. WHU-SSR has a higher accuracy of RT-PPP derived ZTD with an RMSE of 6.06 mm and a perfect availability with an integrity rate of 89 %.
Abstract
Besides the cusp, polar cap, and auroral oval, the nightside subauroral zone has also recently been reported as a source region of the ionospheric oxygen outflows. However, the detailed mass and energy sources of these ions remain open questions. Here, we address this issue from the perspective of the response of conjugate hemispheres. Investigation of Van Allen Probes data demonstrates a notable preference of oxygen outflows from the nightside subauroral zone from the sunlit hemisphere. This characteristic eliminates the possibility of nightside auroral precipitation playing a significant role, as it is more prominent in darkness. Instead, it highlights sunlight-induced ionization as the mass source and enhanced plasma waves from the magnetotail as the energy source. The results presented here further support the nightside subauroral zone as an independent source of magnetospheric oxygen ions.
Abstract
Understanding the behaviors of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity under the CO2 removal scenario is important for future climate adaptation and policy making. Based on the idealized CO2 ramp-up (from 284.7 to 1,138.8 ppm) and symmetric ramp-down experiments, our results suggest an asymmetric and irreversible response of TC potential intensity to CO2 reduction. Potential intensity shows an additional enhancement at the same CO2 level during the CO2 ramp-down relative to the ramp-up periods (though with regional differences), and does not completely return to the initial value even when CO2 recovers on multi-decadal to centennial timescale. The enhanced potential intensity is dominated by the increased thermodynamic disequilibrium, which is mainly attributed to the weakened surface winds arising from the El Niño-like warming pattern and inter-hemispheric ocean temperature contrast. Our results highlight the potential risks of stronger storms on the socioeconomic development under the negative carbon emissions pathways.
Abstract
The urban radio-frequency (RF) noise generated by our cities continues to change with time. Although models exist to describe the RF noise as functions of frequency and urban land use types, very few models describe the spatial character or structure of the noise on the scales of city blocks (50–150 m). The goal of this work is to investigate the connection between urban morphology and the higher-order spatial statistics of the noise field. To achieve this goal, a large measurement campaign was conducted in Boston, Massachusetts. Many spatial measurements allowed for calculation of spatial correlation functions of noise power in three different neighborhoods, which were used to quantify the spatial structure of the fields. A statistical point source model is then developed, with adjustable parameters relating to urban morphology. Good agreement between the model and the experimental correlation functions suggests the 25 MHz urban noise field is well described by a random network of fixed point sources, radiating with a 1/r power law behavior.
Abstract
A new full model of the atmospheric transport of cosmogenic 10Be is presented based on the specialized SOCOL-AERv2-BE chemistry-climate model coupled with the CRAC:10Be isotope production model. The model includes all the relevant atmospheric processes and allows computing the isotope concentration at any given location and time. The full model is directly compared with 10Be isotope measurements in five Antarctic and Greenland ice cores for the period 1980–2007. The model reasonably well reproduces the average concentration and solar-cycle dependency or the lack of it for most observational sites but does not perfectly catch the interannual variability at sites with complex orography likely due to the coarse model grid. This implies that the model correctly reproduces the large-scale atmospheric dynamics but effectively averages out synoptic-scale variability. It is found that the dominant source of 10Be is located in the middle stratosphere (25–40 km), in the tropical (<30° latitudes) and polar (>60°) regions, as produced by galactic cosmic rays and solar energetic particles, respectively. It is shown that >60% (90%) of 10Be produced in the atmosphere reaches the Earth's surface within one (two) years, respectively. For practical purposes, a simple parameterization of the full-model results is presented which agrees with the full model within 20% in polar regions. This parameterization allows one to make a quick estimate of near-ground 10Be concentrations based only on production rates without heavy calculations. This practical approach can be applied to studies of solar and geomagnetic variability using cosmogenic isotopes.
Abstract
Pulsating Aurora (PsA) is one of the major classes of diffuse aurora associated with precipitation of a few to a few tens of keV electrons from the magnetosphere. Recent studies suggested that, during PsA, more energetic (i.e., sub-relativistic/relativistic) electrons precipitate into the ionosphere at the same time. Those electrons are considered to be scattered at the higher latitude part of the magnetosphere by whistler-mode chorus waves propagating away from the magnetic equator. However, there have been no actual cases of simultaneous observations of precipitating electrons causing PsA (PsA electrons) and chorus waves propagating toward higher latitudes; thus, we still do not quite well understand under what conditions PsA electrons become harder and precipitate to lower altitudes. To address this question, we have investigated an extended interval of PsA on 12 January 2021, during which simultaneous observations with the Arase satellite, ground-based all-sky imagers and the European Incoherent SCATter (EISCAT) radar were conducted. We found that, when the PsA shape became patchy, the PsA electron energy increased and Arase detected intense chorus waves at magnetic latitudes above 20°, indicating the propagation of chorus waves up to higher latitudes along the field line. A direct comparison between the irregularities of the magnetospheric electron density and the emission intensity of PsA patches at the footprint of the satellite suggests that the PsA morphology and the energy of PsA electrons are determined by the presence of “magnetospheric density ducts,” which allow chorus waves to travel to higher latitudes and thereby precipitate more energetic electrons.
Abstract
The Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern is a major low-frequency variability in boreal winter. A recent modeling study suggested that PNA variability increases through extratropical atmosphere-ocean coupling, but the effect was not fully extracted due to a particular experimental design. By comparing coupled and two sets of uncoupled large-ensemble global model simulations, here we show that the PNA-induced horseshoe-shaped sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the North Pacific returns a non-negligible influence on the PNA itself. Its magnitude depends on the presence or absence of atmosphere-ocean coupling. The coupling accounts for ∼16% of the PNA variance, while the horseshoe-shaped SST anomaly explains only 5% under the uncoupled condition. The coupling reduces the damping of available potential energy by modulating turbulent heat fluxes and precipitation, magnifying the PNA variance. Precipitation processes in the extratropics as well as tropics are therefore important for realistically representing PNA variability and thereby regional weather and climate.
Maximizing the Use of Pandora Data for Scientific Applications
Prajjwal Rawat, James H. Crawford, Katherine R. Travis, Laura M. Judd, Mary Angelique G. Demetillo, Lukas C. Valin, James J. Szykman, Andrew Whitehill, Eric Baumann, and Thomas F. Hanisco
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2024-114,2024
Preprint under review for AMT (discussion: open, 0 comments)
The Pandonia Global Network (PGN) consists of Pandora spectrometers that observe trace gases at high time resolution to validate satellite observations and understand local air quality. To aid users, PGN assigns quality flags which assure scientifically valid data, but eliminate large amounts of data appropriate for scientific applications. A new method based on contemporaneous data in two independent observation modes is proven using complementary ground-based and airborne observations.
Probabilistic assessment of postfire debris-flow inundation in response to forecast rainfall
Alexander B. Prescott, Luke A. McGuire, Kwang-Sung Jun, Katherine R. Barnhart, and Nina S. Oakley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2359–2374, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024, 2024
Fire can dramatically increase the risk of debris flows to downstream communities with little warning, but hazard assessments have not traditionally included estimates of inundation. We unify models developed by the scientific community to create probabilistic estimates of inundation area in response to rainfall at forecast lead times (≥ 24 h) needed for decision-making. This work takes an initial step toward a near-real-time postfire debris-flow inundation hazard assessment product.
