Abstract
The position of the subtropical jet over the Himalayas (Himalayan jet) affects extreme precipitation and heat over Central and South Asia. We examine the influence of two major natural factors-the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and explosive volcanic eruptions—on Himalayan jet interannual variability during the past millennium using simulations from the Community Earth System Model. We find that both El Niño events and eruptions shift the Himalayan jet equatorward by up to 3°. If an El Niño occurs following an eruption, this enhances the equatorward Himalayan jet shift, while La Niña tends to favor poleward jet migration. Subtropical cooling during El Niño or following eruptions is the primary cause of equatorward Himalayan jet shifts, while poleward shifts are associated with subtropical warming. Consistent across the CMIP6 models over the historical period, our results suggest that both ENSO and eruptions are the key drivers of interannual Himalayan jet variability.
Abstract
A new ice refractive index compilation is reported for a broad spectrum ranging from 0.0443 to 106 μm, focusing on the pronounced temperature-dependence of ice optical properties in the far-infrared (far-IR) segment (15–100 μm). A sensitivity study assuming spherical particles shows that selecting ice refractive indices at 12 temperatures and 215 wavelengths in the far-IR region gives sufficient accuracy in interpolated refractive indices for developing a new ice crystal optical property database. Furthermore, we demonstrate the differences between the bulk single-scattering properties computed for hexagonal ice particles with this new compilation compared to a previous iteration at three far-IR wavelengths where substantial differences are noticed between the two ice refractive index compilations. We suggest that our new ice refractive index data set will improve downstream light-scattering applications for upcoming far-IR satellite missions and allow robust modeling of outgoing longwave radiation under ice cloud conditions.
Abstract
This study uses large eddy simulations to investigate nutrient transport and uptake in suspended macroalgal farms. Various farm configurations and oceanic forcing conditions are examined, with the farm base located near the nutricline depth. We introduce the Damkohler number Da to quantify the balance between nutrient consumption by macroalgae uptake and supply by farm-enhanced nutrient transport. Most cases exhibit low Da, indicating that farm-generated turbulence drives sufficient upward nutrient fluxes, supporting macroalgae growth. High Da and starvation may occur in fully grown farm blocks, a configuration that generates the weakest turbulence, particularly when combined with densely planted macroalgae or weak flow conditions. Flow stagnation within the farm due to macroalgae drag may constrain the uptake efficiency and further increase the starvation risk. Mitigation strategies involve timely harvesting, avoiding dense macroalgae canopies, and selecting farm locations with robust ocean currents and waves. This study provides insights for sustainable macroalgal farm planning.
Abstract
The distribution of tropical cyclone (TC) eye cloud heights is documented for the first time using compact Raman lidar (CRL) measurements with high spatial resolution. These cloud heights act as tracers for low-level vertical mixing in the eye region. Cloud height distributions using all available data from nine Atlantic TCs in 2021 and 2022 show significant vertical variance, dispelling the notion of a flat stratiform eye cloud deck. Eye cloud widths are multiscale, with shallow convective clouds dominating CRL returns. Data from Hurricane Sam (2021) highlight the evolution of shallow convective clouds in the TC eye and their associated temperature inversions. The frequent appearance of convective eye clouds, along with observed vertical wind fluctuations, suggests that vertical mixing from the boundary layer frequently occurs in the TC eye, even beneath strong inversions. This strong vertical mixing should be accurately portrayed by TC simulations and forecasts.
Abstract
The study presents (a) a 44-year wintertime climatology of resolved gravity wave (GW) fluxes and forcing in the extratropical stratosphere using ERA5, and (b) their composite evolution around gradual (final warming) and abrupt (sudden warming) transitions in the wintertime circulation, focusing on lateral fluxes. The transformed Eulerian mean equations are leveraged to provide a glimpse of the importance of GW lateral propagation (i.e., horizontal propagation) toward driving the wintertime stratospheric circulation by analyzing the relative contribution of the vertical versus meridional flux dissipation. The relative contribution from lateral propagation is found to be notable, especially in the Austral winter stratosphere where lateral (vertical) momentum flux convergence provides a peak climatological forcing of up to −0.5 (−3.5) m/s/day around 60°S at 40–45 km altitude. Prominent lateral propagation in the wintertime midlatitudes also contributes to the formation of belts of GW activity in both hemispheres.
Abstract
Impact craters that form on every planetary body provide a record of planetary surface evolution. On heavily cratered surfaces, new craters that form often overlap antecedent craters, but it is unknown how the presence of antecedent craters alters impact crater formation. We use overlapping complex crater pairs on the lunar surface to constrain this process and find that crater rims are systematically lower where they intersect antecedent crater basins. The rim morphology of the new crater depends on the depth of the antecedent crater and the degree of overlap between the craters. Our observations suggest that new craters do not always obliterate underlying topography and that transient rim collapse is altered by antecedent topography. This study represents the first formalization of the influence of antecedent topography on rim morphology and provides process insight into a common impact scenario relevant to the geology of potential Artemis landing sites.
Abstract
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) drive space weather effects at Earth and the heliosphere. Predicting their arrival is a major part of space weather forecasting. In 2013, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center started collecting predictions from the community, developing an Arrival Time Scoreboard (ATSB). Riley et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018sw001962) analyzed the first 5 years of the ATSB, finding a bias of a few hours and uncertainty of order 15 hr. These metrics have been routinely quoted since 2018, but have not been updated despite continued predictions. We revise analysis of the ATSB using a sample 3.5 times the size of that in the original study. We find generally the same overall metrics, a bias of −2.5 hr, mean absolute error of 13.2 hr, and standard deviation of 17.4 hr, with only a slight improvement comparing between the previously-used and new sets. The most well-established, frequently-submitted model results tend to outperform those from seldomly-contributed models. These “best” models show a slight improvement over the 11 year span, with more scatter between the models during early times and a convergence toward the same error metrics in recent years. We find little evidence of any correlations between the arrival time errors and any other properties. The one noticeable exception is a tendency for late predictions for short transit times and vice versa. We propose that any model-driven systematic errors may be washed out by the uncertainties in CME reconstructions in characterization of the background solar wind, and suggest that improving these may be the key to better predictions.
Abstract
Starting from 29 January 2022, a series of solar eruptions triggered a moderate geomagnetic storm on 3 February 2022, followed subsequently by another. Despite the typically minimal impact of unintense storms on space technology, 38 out of the 49 Starlink satellites underwent orbital decay, re-entering Earth's atmosphere. These satellite losses were attributed to enhanced atmospheric drag conditions. This study employs numerical simulations, utilizing our test particle simulation code, to investigate the dynamics of the inner radiation belt during the two magnetic storms. Our analysis reveals an increase in proton density and fluxes during the transition from the recovery phase of the first storm to the initial phase of the second, primarily driven by intense solar wind dynamic pressure. Additionally, we assess Single Event Upset (SEU) rates, which exhibit a 50% increase in comparison to initial quiet conditions.
Abstract
Sporadic E (Es) layers are plasma irregularities significantly affecting radio communication and navigation systems. And, their dominant formation mechanism at mid-latitudes, known as the wind shear theory, suggests that they serve as indicators of the atmosphere-ionosphere coupling processes in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere region. On 15 January 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'api submarine volcanic eruption provided a unique opportunity to investigate the Es layer responses to lower atmospheric perturbations. Using the FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2 radio occultation and ground-based ionosonde observations, this study reveals the spatial-temporal behaviors of the Es layers after the Hunga volcanic eruption. The results show that significant Es layer perturbations occurred over the northwest of the epicenter ∼4 hr after the eruption and lasted for approximately ∼22 hr. We also calculated the geographical distribution of the vertical ion convergence (VIC) using neutral winds obtained from the Michelson Interferometer for Global High-resolution Thermospheric Imaging on the Ionospheric Connection Explorer (ICON) satellite. A comparison of the geographical distribution of positive VIC and Es layer perturbations shows a good agreement, which indicates that the enhanced Es layers are caused by strong VIC associated with the atmospheric perturbations due to the eruption. This study presents observational evidence for coupling between the Es layer and lower atmospheric perturbations, which can be helpful for understanding the occasionality and variability of Es layer occurrence.
New routine NLTE15µmCool-E v1.0 for calculating the non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE) CO2 15 µm cooling in general circulation models (GCMs) of Earth's atmosphere
Alexander Kutepov and Artem Feofilov
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5331–5347, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5331-2024, 2024
Infrared CO2 cooling of the middle and upper atmosphere is increasing. We developed a new routine for very fast and accurate calculations of this cooling in general circulation models. The new algorithm accounts for non-local thermodynamic equilibrium and is about 1000 times faster than the standard matrix algorithms. It is based on advanced techniques for non-equilibrium emission calculations in stellar atmospheres, which so far have not been used in Earth’s and planetary atmospheres.
Modelling boreal forest's mineral soil and peat C dynamics with the Yasso07 model coupled with the Ricker moisture modifier
Boris Ťupek, Aleksi Lehtonen, Alla Yurova, Rose Abramoff, Bertrand Guenet, Elisa Bruni, Samuli Launiainen, Mikko Peltoniemi, Shoji Hashimoto, Xianglin Tian, Juha Heikkinen, Kari Minkkinen, and Raisa Mäkipää
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5349–5367, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5349-2024, 2024
Updating the Yasso07 soil C model's dependency on decomposition with a hump-shaped Ricker moisture function improved modelled soil organic C (SOC) stocks in a catena of mineral and organic soils in boreal forest. The Ricker function, set to peak at a rate of 1 and calibrated against SOC and CO2 data using a Bayesian approach, showed a maximum in well-drained soils. Using SOC and CO2 data together with the moisture only from the topsoil humus was crucial for accurate model estimates.
tobac v1.5: introducing fast 3D tracking, splits and mergers, and other enhancements for identifying and analysing meteorological phenomena
G. Alexander Sokolowsky, Sean W. Freeman, William K. Jones, Julia Kukulies, Fabian Senf, Peter J. Marinescu, Max Heikenfeld, Kelcy N. Brunner, Eric C. Bruning, Scott M. Collis, Robert C. Jackson, Gabrielle R. Leung, Nils Pfeifer, Bhupendra A. Raut, Stephen M. Saleeby, Philip Stier, and Susan C. van den Heever
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5309–5330, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5309-2024, 2024
Building on previous analysis tools developed for atmospheric science, the original release of the Tracking and Object-Based Analysis (tobac) Python package, v1.2, was open-source, modular, and insensitive to the type of gridded input data. Here, we present the latest version of tobac, v1.5, which substantially improves scientific capabilities and computational efficiency from the previous version. These enhancements permit new uses for tobac in atmospheric science and potentially other fields.
A multi-instrument fuzzy logic boundary-layer-top detection algorithm
Elizabeth N. Smith and Jacob T. Carlin
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 4087–4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4087-2024, 2024
Boundary-layer height observations remain sparse in time and space. In this study we create a new fuzzy logic method for synergistically combining boundary-layer height estimates from a suite of instruments. These estimates generally compare well to those from radiosondes; plus, the approach offers near-continuous estimates through the entire diurnal cycle. Suspected reasons for discrepancies are discussed. The code for the newly presented fuzzy logic method is provided for the community to use.
Abstract
Rare earth elements (REE) are vital for powerful permanent magnets used in electric motors and wind turbines. These elements are chiefly sourced from carbonatites and their weathering products. The economic attractiveness of carbonatites is explained by the 10,000-fold enrichment of REE in their mineralized portions relative to the average continental crust. Carbonatites form from mantle-derived melts, but the ultimate origin of their REE is not completely clear. One widely cited model invokes subduction of marine sediments which accumulate REE-rich material, priming the mantle to produce REE-rich carbonatite melts which subsequently form deposits in the upper crust. Here we examine a global marine sediment compilation, revealing a wide variety in REE abundances and patterns. We use the sensitive lambda method that separates REE pattern curvature from redox-related element anomalies to examine both marine sediments and presumably derived carbonatite rocks. We find that the most REE-rich marine sediments are characterized by strongly negative Ce anomalies, which if recycled via subduction, mineralized carbonatites are expected to inherit. In contrast, we find that mineralized carbonatite rocks do not contain Ce anomalies. This indicates that the REE from the most REE-rich marine sediments are not recycled into carbonatite deposits, and a different REE source is needed to explain carbonatite fertilities. We also find evidence that raises questions on whether any sediment-derived REE are present in carbonatite deposits to a significant amount. We suggest that a REE-rich source may not be required and REE enrichment occurs primarily during crustal magmatic differentiation.
Prediction of volume of shallow landslides due to rainfall using data-driven models
Jérémie Tuganishuri, Chan-Young Yune, Manik Das Adhikari, Seung Woo Lee, Gihong Kim, and Sang-Guk Yum
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-90,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
To reduce the consequences of landslides due to rainfall, such as of life and economic losses, and disruption of order of our daily living; this study describes the process of building a machine learning model which can help to estimate the volume of landslides material that can occur in a particular region taking into account of antecedent rainfall, soil characteristics, type of vegetation etc. The findings can be useful for land use, infrastructure design and rainfall disaster management.
Abstract
Shallow sediments can respond non-linearly to large dynamic strains and undergo a subsequent healing phase as the material gradually recovers following the passing of seismic waves. This study focuses on the physical changes in the subsurface caused by the shaking from a buried chemical explosion detonated in a borehole in Nevada, USA, as a part of the Source Physics Experiment Phase II. The explosion damaged the shallow subsurface and modified the frequency content recorded by 491 geophones and 2240 Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) channels within 2.5 km from surface ground zero. We observe a gradual shift of resonance frequencies in the 10–25 Hz frequency band in the hours following the explosion and develop a method to characterize the related logarithm-type healing process of the shallow (i.e., upper ∼25 m) subsurface. We find that stronger levels of ground motion increase the relative degree of damage and duration of the subsurface healing; with the spall region exhibiting the largest degree of damage and longest healing recovery time. We observe coherent spatial patterns of damage with the region located to the southeast of the explosion exhibiting more damage than the southwest region. This study demonstrates that both DAS and co-located geophones capture similar temporal changes associated with the physical processes occurring in the subsurface, with the high-density sampling of DAS measurements enabling a new capability to monitor the fine-scale changes of the Earth's shallow subsurface following the detonation of a buried explosion.
