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Variation in the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) within the Central Himalayan Seismic Gap using teleseismic P- wave coda autocorrelation: Implications for seismic hazard

Geophysical Journal International - Wed, 08/20/2025 - 00:00
SummeryThe seismic hazard due to higher magnitude Himalayan earthquakes largely depends on the geometry of the underthrusting Indian Plate beneath the Himalayas, i.e., the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). For an objective assessment of seismic hazard in the central Himalayan seismic gap, we determine the geometry of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) along 4 ∼SW-NE oriented arc-normal seismic profiles covering the central Himalayan seismic gap. We use teleseismic P- wave coda autocorrelation on waveforms recorded at 117 broadband seismic stations spread along these profiles, with an interstation spacing of 3-5 km. The results show that along these seismic profiles, the MHT is mostly of flat-ramp-flat geometry. However, the mid-crustal ramp of the MHT shows variations in its location, dip angle, and width. We also observe variations in the MHT near the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) and Main Boundary Thrust (MBT). The observed variations in the MHT geometry within the central Himalayan seismic gap thus suggest the possibility of along-strike segmentation of the Himalayan arc, and different seismic hazard scenarios may be present during any possible higher magnitude earthquake in the central Himalayan seismic gap.

Automatic picking of multi-modal Rayleigh-wave dispersion curves from multi-component data with an energy-density-based clustering method

Geophysical Journal International - Wed, 08/20/2025 - 00:00
SummaryRayleigh wave is widely used for characterizing shallow subsurface structures. The conventional Rayleigh-wave methods rely on the manual picking of dispersion curves, and the dispersion curves of multi-component data are usually merged manually. The manual processing of multi-component Rayleigh waves reduces the efficiency of the method, especially when the data size and the number of modes are large. To overcome these limitations, we develop an energy-based clustering method, namely the Energy-Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (E-DBSCAN) algorithm. The E-DBSCAN algorithm extracts energy clusters and dispersion curves from a single dispersion image. It considers the dispersion-energy values of the surface wave and is able to pick the dispersion curve more reliably compared with the conventional DBSCAN algorithm. We propose a two-step clustering approach for the automatic picking of multi-mode dispersion curves from multi-component data: we first extract the energy clusters in the dispersion spectra of horizontal- and vertical-component data using E-DBSCAN, respectively, and combine them in the frequency-velocity domain. Then we extract multi-modal dispersion curves from the combined multi-component energy clusters with E-DBSCAN or DBSCAN. Numerical results show that our proposed method has fairly high accuracy and estimates more abundant multi-modal dispersion curves than the single-component method. Two field examples, including an active-source and an ambient-noise dataset, prove the validity of our method and the outperformance of multi-component results compared with the single-component results. Our proposed method has a relatively low dependence on parameter selection and is also applicable to multi-offset data, which is valuable for picking multi-modal dispersion curves.

Reciprocity and representation theorems for rotational seismology

Geophysical Journal International - Wed, 08/20/2025 - 00:00
SummaryRecently, there has been an increasing interest in employing rotational motion measurements for seismic source inversion, structural imaging and ambient noise analysis. We derive reciprocity and representation theorems for rotational motion. The representations express the rotational motion inside an inhomogeneous anisotropic earth in terms of translational and rotational motion at the surface. The theorems contribute to the theoretical basis for rotational seismology methodology, such as determining the moment tensor of earthquake sources.

Exploring the dynamic interactions between El Niño-Southern Oscillation and tropical basins

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 08/19/2025 - 19:52
Earth's climate is a dynamic system of interconnected physical processes and events occurring around the globe. Many of these processes are coupled so that changes in one event or process in one geographical area will result in changes in many other geographical areas. It is one of the challenges in climate science to understand the various processes, how they affect each other and how they change over time and space.

Q&A: Wildfire char shows promise for reducing atmospheric methane emissions

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 08/19/2025 - 18:09
It's hard to believe that there is anything positive that could come out of wildfires. They have devastated homes, taken lives, erased memories, leveled cities and destroyed our forests and wildlands. But a University of Delaware professor has found that there is something of value to be learned from what's left behind in the remnants.

Why does Australia have earthquakes? The whole continent is under stress from distant forces

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 08/19/2025 - 15:30
Last Saturday at 9:49am local time, a magnitude 5.6 earthquake occurred about 50km west of Gympie in Queensland. The earthquake was experienced as strong shaking locally, but did not produce any significant damage, likely because of the remote location of the epicenter.

Svalbard lost 1% of its ice in the summer of 2024, more than any year on record

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 08/19/2025 - 15:30
Svalbard, an Arctic archipelago that is technically a part of Norway, lies about halfway between the northernmost part of Norway and the North Pole. Currently, about 60% of Svalbard's surface is covered in glaciers, but these glaciers are melting rapidly. During the summer of 2024, Svalbard experienced a record-breaking heat wave that melted more of its glaciers than ever before.

Trees in the tropics cool more, burn less: For fire suppression and cooling, location is everything

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 08/19/2025 - 15:28
More trees will cool the climate and suppress fires, but mainly if planted in the tropics, according to a new UC Riverside study.

In Africa, heat waves are hotter and longer than 40 years ago, researchers say

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 08/19/2025 - 14:37
Heat waves—prolonged periods of abnormally hot weather—influence egg prices, energy bills and even public transit. And they're becoming more common as temperatures increase.

North Pacific waters are acidifying more rapidly below the surface, research reveals

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 08/19/2025 - 14:19
Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere enters the ocean at the surface and has been increasing the acidity of Pacific waters since the beginning of the industrial revolution over 200 years ago. A new study, led by University of Hawai'i at Mānoa oceanographers, revealed that the ocean is acidifying even more rapidly below the surface in the open waters of the North Pacific near Hawai'i.

Where the Pigs and Buffalo Roam, the Wetlands They do Bemoan

EOS - Tue, 08/19/2025 - 13:29
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

The prevailing view of mammal activity in ecosystems is that they have marginal impacts to services like greenhouse gas emissions. However, that is not always the case, especially with large, feral ungulates. In northern Australia, the indigenous Yolŋu peoples connect and rely on coastal wetlands for spiritual connection, tourism, fisheries, and crocodile egg harvesting. These wetlands, however, suffer damage from invasive pigs and buffalo. The Yirralka Rangers of the region attempt to control these from the air.

Crameri et al. [2025] partnered with the local community to evaluate the impact of these feral ungulates on wetland greenhouse gas emissions and carbon stocks, an ecosystem service growing in value for climate change mitigation. Fenced enclosures allowed the authors to reveal a fourfold increase in carbon dioxide and methane emissions in unfenced areas, while fenced areas increased in belowground biomass with limited impact on soil organic carbon. The work demonstrates how research partnerships with local communities, as documented in the article’s Inclusion in Global Research statement, can support local land stewardship and contribute to global conservation and climate mitigation efforts.

Citation: Crameri, N. J., Mununggurr, L., Rangers, Y., Gore, D. B., Ralph, T. J., Pearse, A. L., et al. (2025). Feral ungulate impacts on carbon cycling in a coastal floodplain wetland in tropical northern Australia. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 130, e2025JG009056. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JG009056

—Ankur Desai, Associate Editor, JGR: Biogeosciences

Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Infrared Instruments Could Spot Exotic Ice on Other Worlds

EOS - Tue, 08/19/2025 - 13:24

Water ice molecules are among the most common in the cosmos and influence the interior and exterior of many planetary bodies in our solar system. Glaciers shape parts of Earth’s surface, and dwarf planet Pluto, along with moons such as Europa, Ganymede, Titan, and Enceladus, have whole landscapes made up of ice alone, including boulders, mountains, and even volcanoes.

Under high-pressure or very low temperature conditions, ice forms different crystal structures than those that occur naturally on Earth. Identifying and measuring those structures on worlds such as Ganymede would provide unique data on the interiors of these celestial bodies, in the same way studying mantle rocks pushed to the surface on Earth reveals our planet’s deep geology.

In the lab, researchers can bombard ice with X-rays or neutrons to understand its structure. But such instruments aren’t practical to fly on spacecraft.

“The ices that we prepare in the lab only occur naturally in space.”

Now, new experiments conducted by Christina Tonauer and her colleagues at Universität Innsbruck in Austria show how to distinguish between ice structures using infrared spectroscopy. The analyses, published in Physical Review Letters earlier this summer, can be done using observations from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) or the European Space Agency’s JUICE (Jupiter Icy Moons Explorer) mission currently en route to Jupiter.

“The ices that we prepare in the lab only occur naturally in space,” said Tonauer, whose work combines her field of physical chemistry with her love for planets. “I’m also really interested in astronomy, and this is what hooked me to water ice.”

During Tonauer’s Ph.D. work in the early 2020s, JWST was still to be launched, but it was clear the infrared observatory would open avenues for studying the ice-covered moons of the outer solar system. When she and her collaborators delved into the literature, they realized that a lot of spectroscopic work on ice—research that largely predated the leaps in understanding gained from the Voyager and Cassini missions—considered infrared (IR) wavelengths longer than those JWST could measure.

It seemed fruitful to Tonauer and her colleagues to study the shorter-wavelength IR spectrum (near-IR) emitted by ice on these distant worlds.

Ice Maker, Ice Maker, Make Me Some Ice

As of 2025, 21 different phases of ice have been identified in laboratory experiments, although only one form exists under normal conditions on Earth. That form is called ice Ih (pronounced “ice one aitch”), where “h” refers to the hexagonal pattern the molecule’s oxygen atoms take when viewed from one direction.

The conditions that allow researchers to study other ice phases in the lab exist naturally on other planets and moons, however, and scientists have concluded the phases might exist there.

Ganymede and other worlds in the outer solar system likely have something akin to mantle dynamics, for example, but with ice instead of silicate minerals.

Ganymede’s mantle could be 800 kilometers thick and consist of several forms of ice that are known only from laboratory experiments on Earth. Tonauer and her collaborators selected ice V and ice XIII for their study, because they form under the high pressures and low temperatures present inside Ganymede and other moons. These phases have the same arrangement of oxygen atoms, but different orientations of hydrogen atoms: In ice V, hydrogen is jumbled around, whereas hydrogen in ice XIII is structured.

Making these types of ice in the lab requires cooling liquid water with liquid nitrogen under about 5,000 atmospheres (500 megapascals) of pressure. As long as the samples are kept cold after forming, Tonauer noted, they don’t require high pressure to remain stable because the atoms move so slowly.

However, that slow motion still stretches the bonds between molecules, a vibration that produces IR signals. Using spectroscopy to interpret the emissions, Tonauer and her colleagues discovered that these signals are different for ice V and ice XIII. That difference provided the first experimental demonstration of using IR to distinguish hydrogen configurations within different phases of ice. It also highlighted a way to identify them remotely.

The researchers used a JWST simulator to show that a few hours of observation would be enough to distinguish between these ice phases on Ganymede.

A Peek at Deep Ice

The stability of these ice phases is key to understanding their potential presence on the surface of Ganymede: The phases require high pressure to form, but if brought to the lower-pressure surface, they can maintain their exotic crystal structure indefinitely. In that way, the presence of ice V or XIII would provide details about the icy mantle that would otherwise be inaccessible.

Past and present missions to the Jovian system have clearly indicated that Ganymede’s interior contains a liquid water ocean sandwiched between ice layers, but the ices’ crystalline structures, as well as how the layers move and evolve, have not been verified by empirical data. According to models of icy moon interiors, the high-pressure environment should produce ice V, which phenomena such as the tidal force from Jupiter might bring to the surface.

“We can now potentially detect subtle structural differences on icy moons without needing a lander or sample return.”

These new infrared spectroscopy analyses show how to distinguish between ice Ih, ice V, and ice XIII—not to mention amorphous ice, which lacks a clear crystal structure—without having to return samples to Earth for laboratory analysis (a prohibitively expensive proposition). The method could provide an observational way to verify or refute models of interior ice dynamics, sharpen our picture of Ganymede’s internal structure, and help us understand how different flavors of ice behave and interact with each other in a natural environment.

“We can now potentially detect subtle structural differences on icy moons without needing a lander or sample return,” said Danna Qasim, a laboratory astrophysicist at the Southwest Research Institute in Texas who was not involved with the new study.

Qasim pointed out that if the grains of these ices are small and jumbled together, it might be difficult to extract their IR signature. As other recent research has shown, amorphous ice in space likely contains chunks of crystalline ice joined together at odd angles, which also might make identification more difficult.

However, the new method seems promising and could well answer vital questions about the internal structure of icy moons.

“We invest billions of dollars in these spectacular space missions,” Qasim said. “If we want to truly understand what the data is telling us about these enigmatic beautiful worlds, it is absolutely necessary to have laboratory experiments like the ones performed here.”

—Matthew R. Francis (@BowlerHatScience.org), Science Writer

Citation: Francis, M. R. (2025), Infrared instruments could spot exotic ice on other worlds, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250303. Published on 19 August 2025. Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

El queso en tiempos de la agricultura industrial y el cambio climático

EOS - Tue, 08/19/2025 - 13:23

This is an authorized translation of an Eos article. Esta es una traducción al español autorizada de un artículo de Eos.

No hace mucho, en un día de verano, 10 personas se reunieron para comer queso en nombre de la ciencia. Degustaron pequeñas porciones de Cantal, un queso firme de leche de vaca producido históricamente en el centro-sur de Francia, y evaluaron más de 25 atributos que incluyeron el color, el olor, el sabor, el aroma y la textura. La degustación era sólo uno de los componentes de un estudio más amplio sobre los efectos del cambio de la dieta de las vacas, del pasto al maíz, debido a la industrialización y el cambio climático. Los nuevos resultados subrayan la importancia de mantener al menos parte de la hierba en la dieta de las vacas. Los nuevos hallazgos resaltan la importancia de mantener al menos algo de pastos en la dieta de las vacas.

“Su fisiología y tracto digestivo están hechos para digerir pasto”.

Las vacas, con sus cuatro bolsas estomacales, están preparadas evolutivamente para consumir pastos y extraer todos los nutrientes posibles de ese forraje. “Las vacas son herbívoras”, afirma Elisa Manzocchi, investigadora láctea de Agroscope en Posieux (Suiza), que no participó en la investigación. (Agroscope es una organización gubernamental suiza dedicada a la investigación agrícola). “Su fisiología y tracto digestivo están hechos para digerir pasto”.

Pero en todo el mundo, los bovinos se alimentan cada vez más con un dieta basada en maíz a medida que prolifera la ganadería a escala industrial – a menudo es más fácil, más eficiente y escalable alimentar a las vacas con un comedero en lugar de permitirles forrajear en un pastizal.

El cambio climático también está impulsando este cambio. Incluso en regiones en las que por bastante tiempo han llevado a las vacas a pastizales verdes, los ganaderos se enfrentan a la escasez de pasto en verano debido a las sequías. Así ocurre en Marcenat, lugar donde se encuentra una granja experimental del Instituto Nacional de Investigación para la Agricultura, la Alimentación y el Medio Ambiente (INRAE), explicó Matthieu Bouchon, científico especializado en cría de animales de ahí. El verano hace más calor que antes, pero sigue lloviendo mucho en primavera, afirmó. “Las condiciones son perfectas para el cultivo de maíz”.

Ver campos de maíz en Marcenat, una región montañosa del centro-sur de Francia a una altitud de 1,000 metros, es desconcertante, dijo Bouchon. “No es algo a lo que estamos acostumbrados”.

Bouchon y sus colegas del INRAE, dirigidos por la microbióloga Céline Delbès, investigaron recientemente cómo la modificación de la dieta de las vacas tiene efectos secundarios en la cantidad, la calidad, el valor nutricional, y el sabor de su leche y el queso resultante. En trabajos anteriores se habían comparado los resultados de dietas a base de pasto y maíz, dijo Manzocchi, pero esta investigación es particularmente exhaustiva. “Es uno de los primeros estudios en los que se analizaron muchos parámetros”.

Del suelo al pasto, del pasto a la vaca, y de ahí a la leche y al queso

El equipo se centró en 40 vacas Prim’Holstein y Montbéliarde, dividiéndolas en dos grupos: uno alimentado con una dieta basada principalmente en pastos y otro con una dieta basada en el maíz con cierto acceso a pastar forraje. Después de dos meses, la mitad de las vacas del primer grupo comenzó a recibir una dieta con menos pasto, y a la mitad de las vacas del segundo grupo se les negó por completo el acceso al pasto. El resultado fue una cohorte de cuatro grupos de bovinos que, durante casi tres meses más, comieron aproximadamente un 75 %, 50 %, 25 % y 0 % de pasto, respectivamente.

A lo largo del experimento, Delbès y sus colaboradores recogieron muestras de leche dos veces por semana (las vacas se ordeñaban dos veces al día), muestras de suelo de los pastizales e incluso muestras de las ubres de las vacas. El objetivo era comprender mejor cómo un cambio en la dieta inducido por el cambio climático se traduce en cambios en los atributos de la leche de un rebaño y, en última instancia, en el queso. “Había muchas cosas en este experimento”, dijo Bouchon.

Los investigadores solicitaron la ayuda de una quesería cercana a la granja para producir pequeñas rondas de queso Cantal, de aproximadamente medio kilogramo cada uno, utilizando leche de las vacas de cada uno de los cuatro grupos. Los quesos se maduraron durante 9 semanas antes de ser servidos a un panel de catadores entrenados en la degustación de quesos tipo Cantal.

Conservar el pasto

En consonancia con hallazgos anteriores, los investigadores descubrieron que el queso elaborado con leche de vacas alimentadas principalmente con pastos era más sabroso y tenía niveles más altos de ciertos ácidos grasos en comparación con los quesos producidos a partir de vacas alimentadas principalmente con maíz. Sin embargo, las vacas alimentadas con dietas con una mayor proporción de pastos también producían menos leche en relación con la cantidad de alimento que consumían, señaló el equipo.

En general, Delbès y sus colaboradores descubrieron que el cambio de una dieta con un 25% de pasto forrajeado a una con un 0% de pasto forrajeado era más perjudicial para la calidad nutricional y sensorial del queso, que el cambio de una dieta con un 75% de pasto forrajeado a una dieta con un 50% de pasto forrajeado.

“Es sorprendente que sólo una cuarta parte de la dieta pueda [influir] tanto en la calidad sensorial del queso”.

El hallazgo sugiere que mantener al menos una mínima cantidad de hierba fresca es fundamental para garantizar la calidad del queso, afirmó Delbès.

“Es sorprendente que sólo una cuarta parte de la dieta pueda [influir] tanto en la calidad sensorial del queso”, dijo Manzocchi. Pero tal vez ese hallazgo debería tranquilizar a los productores de queso tradicionales que ya no pueden alimentar a sus rebaños con una dieta basada principalmente en pasto, agregó. “Quizás sea una buena noticia”.

Delbès y su equipo aún no han terminado con sus rebaños Prim’Holstein y Montbéliarde. El trabajo futuro se centrará en examinar cómo los microbios presentes en el suelo y las zonas de descanso de las vacas, por ejemplo, se correlacionan con los microbios presentes en el intestino humano después del consumo de queso.

Katherine Kornei (@KatherineKornei), Escritora de ciencia

This translation by translator Stephanie Segura (@StephSeg_05) was made possible by a partnership with Planeteando y GeoLatinas. Esta traducción fue posible gracias a una asociación con Planeteando and GeoLatinas.

Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Global South faces 'disproportionately high' urban flood risk, study warns

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 08/19/2025 - 12:55
A new study has revealed a stark and growing inequality in urban flood exposure across the globe, with developing nations facing risks that are multiples higher than their wealthier counterparts. The study warns that this gap is set to widen, posing a severe threat to sustainable development and highlighting an urgent need for equitable climate adaptation strategies.

An update on the 21 July 2025 rock avalanche in the Matia’an valley, in Wanrong township in eastern Taiwan.

EOS - Tue, 08/19/2025 - 06:25

Following the passage Typhoon Podul, the lake created by this massive landslide has now grown considerably. Overtopping is expected in October, although could occur sooner if further heavy rainfall occurs.

The landslide-dammed lake behind the the enormous 21 July 2025 rock avalanche in the Matia’an valley, in Wanrong township in eastern Taiwan continues to fill. Meanwhile, the landslide itself is evolving with time. This is a Planet Labs image of the site soon after the main rock avalanche occurred:-

Planet Labs image showing the site of the 21 July 2025 landslide in the Matia’an valley in Wanrong township, Taiwan. Satellite image copyright Planet Labs , used with permission. Image dated 25 July 2025.

Whilst this is the most recent satellite image (note that the right hand side is the older image):-

Recent Planet Labs image showing the site of the 21 July 2025 landslide in the Matia’an valley in Wanrong township, Taiwan. Satellite image copyright Planet Labs, used with permission. Image dated 18 August 2025.

And here is a slider so that you can compare the two images:-

Image copyright Planet Labs.

This area received very heavy rainfall as a result of the passage of Typhoon Podul. This has driven a number of changes. Perhaps most obviously, the lake is now very considerably larger. This will continue to grow over the coming weeks until overtopping occurs.

Second, as I noted in my original post, the landslide generated a large volume of dust which had settled around the deposit, especially to the south. This has now been washed away.

Thirdly, there have been more failures from the rear scarp of the landslide, so the landslide deposit has evolved.

And finally, the heavy rainfall has driven some erosion of the finer-grained portions of the landslide deposit.

It is also worth noting that a few other, smaller, lakes have now formed on the landslide. The largest of these is about 250 x 200 metres, so not insignificant.

On 14 August 2025, etaiwan.news posted an article in Mandarin about the landslide. It noted that the Taiwan Government has authorised funding to “develop disaster mitigation, monitoring, evacuation, and engineering plans”. This includes the development of an evacuation plan, but also “evaluation and planning, excavation of spillways, construction of embankments, bed consolidation, etc., to reduce the risk of dam collapse and protect downstream areas”.

The Hualien Branch of the Forestry and Conservation Department has released these two images of the lake at the site of the in the Matia’an valley:-

The deposit of the 21 July 2025 landslide in the Matai’an valley in Wanrong township, Taiwan. Image by provided by Hualien Branch of the Forestry and Conservation Department/Wang Zhiwei Hualien Fax.

The deposit of the landslide is well-captured, with the lake in the background. This is the same site from the lake looking towards the toe:-

The lake formed by the 21 July 2025 landslide in the Matai’an valley in Wanrong township, Taiwan. Image by provided by Hualien Branch of the Forestry and Conservation Department/Wang Zhiwei Hualien Fax.

Immediately after the typhoon, the lake had reached 43% of its storage capacity with a freeboard of 55 metres. Assuming that no further typhoons affect this area, and in the absence of the construction of a spillway, overtopping is likely to occur in October.

Reference

Planet Team 2025. Planet Application Program Interface: In Space for Life on Earth. San Francisco, CA. https://www.planet.com/

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2023. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Exascale simulations underpin quake-resistant infrastructure designs

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 08/19/2025 - 05:53
Simulations still can't predict exactly when an earthquake will happen, but with the incredible processing power of modern exascale supercomputers, they can now predict how they will happen and how much damage they will likely cause.

Grand Canyon's Dragon Bravo megafire shows the growing wildfire threat to water systems

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 08/19/2025 - 01:00
As wildfire crews battled the Dragon Bravo Fire on the Grand Canyon's North Rim in July 2025, the air turned toxic.

PoViT-UQ: P-wave Polarity and Arrival Time Determination using Vision Transformer with Uncertainty Quantification

Geophysical Journal International - Tue, 08/19/2025 - 00:00
SummaryDetermining earthquake focal mechanisms is essential for understanding fault geometry and the stress field in the Earth's crust. When focal mechanisms are estimated using P-wave first-motion polarities, accurate polarity determination is critical. In recent years, deep-learning-based polarity-determination models have been developed. However, the estimation of focal mechanisms using P-wave polarities is often not robust. When automating this process using deep learning models, it is crucial to identify and utilize only those polarity predictions that the model infers with high accuracy and low uncertainty. In this study, we propose a novel deep learning model, PoViT-UQ, that combines a Vision Transformer (ViT) with Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD) to estimate high-precision initial P-wave polarity classification and arrival time detection with uncertainty quantification. Using seismic waveform data sampled at 100 and 250 Hz, the model classifies polarities into three classes (Up, Down, and Noise) and simultaneously estimates P-wave arrival times. The results showed a classification accuracy exceeding 98% and a standard deviation of 0.027 s in the arrival time estimation using the 250 Hz model. By integrating MCD, we evaluate prediction uncertainty and apply an interquartile range threshold of ≤0.15 to improve the accuracy of focal mechanism estimates. Validation using aftershock data from the 2016 Central Tottori Earthquake confirmed that our approach contributes to efficient and high-precision focal mechanism estimates. Our model advances automated initial P-wave polarity determination and enables reliable data selection based on uncertainty quantification.

Surface core flow dynamic pressure estimation

Geophysical Journal International - Tue, 08/19/2025 - 00:00
SummaryThe flows within Earth’s fluid outer core push and pull on the core-mantle boundary (CMB) through dynamic pressure variations, potentially leading to deformation of the CMB. It is therefore crucial to obtain a realistic estimate of the pressure associated with flows within the fluid core. In many studies, it is commonly assumed that the flow tangent to the CMB is in balance between Coriolis and pressure gradient forces, known as a tangentially geostrophic (TG) flow. A static pressure field is thereby associated kinematically to the flow field at the core’s surface. We run direct numeric simulations of the magnetohydrodynamic equations in the Boussinesq approximation that can solve for the pressure field and allow for a comparison between a fully dynamic solution and the TG pressure estimate. An excellent agreement between the two pressure fields is found for a steady image of the core surface dynamics. However, the performance of the TG pressure estimate is not without limitations. Although it effectively captures most of the temporal dynamics associated with the fluid flow, discrepancies arise, particularly near the equator and for rapid changes in flow dynamics.

Discovery of hidden faults sheds light on mystery of 'slow earthquakes'

Phys.org: Earth science - Mon, 08/18/2025 - 20:30
Scientists have uncovered a key piece of the puzzle behind the unusual "slow earthquakes" occurring off the east coast of New Zealand's North Island.

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