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Geological archives may predict our climate future

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 06/25/2024 - 11:12
By analyzing 56-million-year-old sediments, a UNIGE team has measured the increase in soil erosion caused by global warming, synonymous with major flooding.

Evaluation of forecasts by a global data-driven weather model with and without probabilistic post-processing at Norwegian stations

Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics - Tue, 06/25/2024 - 10:42
Evaluation of forecasts by a global data-driven weather model with and without probabilistic post-processing at Norwegian stations
John Bjørnar Bremnes, Thomas N. Nipen, and Ivar A. Seierstad
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 31, 247–257, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-247-2024, 2024
During the last 2 years, tremendous progress has been made in global data-driven weather models trained on reanalysis data. In this study, the Pangu-Weather model is compared to several numerical weather prediction models with and without probabilistic post-processing for temperature and wind speed forecasting. The results confirm that global data-driven models are promising for operational weather forecasting and that post-processing can improve these forecasts considerably.

Study finds strong path dependence in Plio-Pleistocene glaciations through climate model simulations

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 06/25/2024 - 10:13
The climate modeling community has been particularly vexed by the glacial/interglacial cycles of the past three million years, when the Northern Hemisphere oscillated between times with and without large ice sheets.

Chebyshev polynomial approach to Loschmidt echo: Application to quench dynamics in two-dimensional quasicrystals

Physical Review E (Computational physics) - Tue, 06/25/2024 - 10:00

Author(s): Niaz Ali Khan, Shihao Ye, Ziheng Zhou, Shujie Cheng, and Gao Xianlong

The understanding of quantum phase transitions in disordered or quasicrystal media is a central issue in condensed matter physics. In this paper we investigate localization properties of the two-dimensional Aubry-André model. We find that the system exhibits self-duality for the transformation betwe…


[Phys. Rev. E 109, 065311] Published Tue Jun 25, 2024

Simple proof that there is no sign problem in path integral Monte Carlo simulations of fermions in one dimension

Physical Review E (Computational physics) - Tue, 06/25/2024 - 10:00

Author(s): Siu A. Chin

It is widely known that there is no sign problem in path integral Monte Carlo (PIMC) simulations of fermions in one dimension. As far as the author is aware, there is no direct proof of this in the literature. This work shows that the sign of the N-fermion antisymmetric free propagator is given by t…


[Phys. Rev. E 109, 065312] Published Tue Jun 25, 2024

New tipping point discovered beneath the Antarctic ice sheet

Phys.org: Earth science - Tue, 06/25/2024 - 09:00
A new and worrying way that large ice sheets can melt has been characterized by scientists for the first time. The research focuses on how relatively warm seawater can lap at the underside of ground-based ice, which can accelerate the movement of the ice into the ocean.

Lower Thermospheric Temperature Response to Geomagnetic Activity at High Latitudes

JGR:Space physics - Tue, 06/25/2024 - 07:00
Abstract

The magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system is externally driven by the energy input from the solar wind. A part of the solar wind energy deposited in the magnetosphere during geomagnetically active periods dissipates into the thermosphere. Previous studies have reported temperature perturbations in the lower thermosphere during geomagnetic storms. The present study aims to assess the climatological spatial pattern of the lower thermospheric response to geomagnetic activity at high latitudes based on 21 years of temperature measurements by the SABER (Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry) instrument onboard the TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics) satellite and their comparison with the recently developed half-hourly geomagnetic activity index Hp30. The temperature response to geomagnetic activity, evaluated at different seasons and altitudes, is better organized in magnetic coordinates than in geographic coordinates. At 110 km, the temperature increases with Hp30 at all magnetic local times, but with a prominent dusk-dawn asymmetry in the magnitude. That is, the temperature variation per unit Hp30 is larger in the dusk sector than in the dawn sector. At 106 km, the response in the dawn sector is further reduced or even negative. These results provide observational evidence to support earlier theoretical predictions; according to which, both storm-induced vertical wind and Joule heating contribute to the temperature increase in the dusk sector, while in the dawn sector, the vertical wind acts to cool the air and thus counteracts Joule heating.

Issue Information

JGR:Space physics - Tue, 06/25/2024 - 07:00

No abstract is available for this article.

Plasma Sheet Counterparts for Auroral Beads and Vortices in Advance of Fast Flows: New Evidence for Near‐Earth Substorm Onset

JGR:Space physics - Tue, 06/25/2024 - 04:36
Abstract

The relationship between auroral, ground, and plasma sheet signatures in the late growth phase is crucial for understanding the sequence of events during a substorm expansion phase onset. Here we show conjugate ground-auroral-satellite observations of a substorm that occurred on 18 September 2021, between 04:45 and 05:00 UT, where four auroral activations were detected in the all-sky imagers. An initial activation showed the brightening of an equatorward arc within the cutoff of the 630 nm emissions, indicating activity on closed field lines well inside the open-closed field line boundary (OCFLB). During a second activation, auroral beads were observed on a brightening arc, equatorward and within the OCFLB, followed by the transformation from small-scale to large-scale vortices. The tail current sheet was highly disturbed during the auroral vortex evolution, including pressure and magnetic disturbances, an apparent broadening of a previously thin current sheet, and a breakdown of the frozen-in condition. Our observations clearly show late growth phase dynamics, including arc brightenings, the formation of auroral beads, and auroral vortex development, can occur well in advance of fast Earthward flows in the tail. Indeed, it is only during that later activity that auroral breakup and strong Earthward flows, which we associate with magnetic reconnection further down the tail, are observed together with strong magnetic bays on the ground. The sequence of events is consistent with an inside-to-outside model at substorm expansion phase onset, most likely via a shear-flow ballooning instability in the transition region from dipole to tail-like fields in the near-Earth plasma sheet.

Improved Parker-Oldenburg method and its application to Moho topographic inversion in the northern South China Sea

Geophysical Journal International - Tue, 06/25/2024 - 00:00
SummaryBefore inverting Moho topography, the traditional Parker-Oldenburg method requires the determination of two important hyperparameters, the average Moho depth and Moho density contrast. The selection of these two hyperparameters will directly affect the inversion results. In this paper, a new method for estimating hyperparameters is proposed which is used to improve the Parker-Oldenburg method. The new method is improved by using simulated annealing to accurately estimate the average Moho depth and Moho density contrast based on the relationship between Moho depths and corresponding gravity anomalies at seismic control points. Synthetic tests show that compared to the improved Bott's method and the trial and error method, our method reduces the error in Moho density contrast and average Moho depth by 0.83% and 1.81% respectively. In addition, compared with the trial and error method, our method greatly improves the computational efficiency. In a practical example, we apply this method to invert the Moho topography in the northern South China Sea. The inversion results show that the Moho topography in the northern South China Sea ranges from 8.2 to 33 km. The root mean squared error between our Moho topography and the seismic validation points is 0.94 km. Compared with the CRUST 1.0 model, our Moho topography is more accurate.

Temporal variations of the “in-situ” nonlinear behavior of shallow sediments during the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake sequence

Geophysical Journal International - Tue, 06/25/2024 - 00:00
SummaryStrong ground shaking has the potential to generate significant dynamic strains in shallow materials such as soils and sediments, thereby inducing nonlinear site response resulting in changes in near-surface materials. The nonlinear behavior of these materials can be characterized by an increase in wave attenuation and a decrease in the resonant frequency of the soil; these effects are attributed to increased material damping and decreased seismic wave propagation velocity, respectively. This study investigates the “in-situ” seismic velocity changes and the predominant ground motion frequency evolution during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence. This sequence includes two foreshocks (Mw6, Mw6.2) followed by a mainshock (Mw7.2) that occurred 24 h after the last foreshock. We present the results of the seismic velocity evolution during these earthquakes for seismological records collected by the KiK-net (32 stations) and K-NET (88 stations) networks between 2002 and 2020. We analyze the impulse response and autocorrelation functions to investigate the nonlinear response in near-surface materials. By comparing the results of the impulse response and autocorrelation functions, we observe that a nonlinear response occurs in near-surface materials. We then quantify the velocity reductions that occur before, during, and after the mainshock using both approaches. This allows us to estimate the “in situ” shear modulus reduction for different site classes based on VS30 values (VS30 < 360 m/s, 360 <VS30 < 760 m/s, VS30 > 760 m/s). We also establish the relationships between velocity changes, shear modulus reduction, variations in predominant ground motion frequencies, and site characteristics (VS30). The results of this analysis can be applied to site-specific ground motion modeling, site response analysis, and the incorporation of nonlinear site terms into ground motion models.

Improving the stochastic model for code pseudorange observations from Android smartphones

GPS Solutions - Tue, 06/25/2024 - 00:00
Abstract

In recent years, there has been increasing attention to positioning, navigation, and timing applications with smartphones. Because of frequently disrupted carrier phase observations, code observations remain critical for smartphone-based positioning. Considering a realistic stochastic model is mandatory to obtain the utmost positioning performance, this study proposes a sound stochastic approach for code observations from Android smartphones. The proposed approach includes a modified version of the SIGMA-ɛ variance model with different coefficients for each GNSS constellation and a robust Kalman filter method. First the noise characteristics of observations from the Xiaomi Mi 8 smartphone are analyzed utilizing code-minus-phase combinations to estimate the coefficients for each GNSS constellation. This includes the determination of a variance model as well as a check of the probability distribution. Finally, the proposed approach is validated in the positioning domain using single-frequency code observation-based real-time standalone positioning. The results show that more than 95% of observations follow the normal distribution when the proposed approach is applied. Compared with the conventional stochastic approach, including a C/N0-dependent model and standard Kalman filter, it improves the positioning accuracy by 45.8% in a static experiment, while its improvement is equal to 26.6% in a kinematic experiment. For the static and kinematic experiments, in 50% of the epochs, the 3D positioning errors are smaller than 3.0 m and 3.4 m for the proposed stochastic approach. The results exhibit that the stochastic properties of code observations from smartphones can be successfully represented by the proposed approach.

Observations and positioning quality of low-cost GNSS receivers: a review

GPS Solutions - Tue, 06/25/2024 - 00:00
Abstract

Over the past two decades, low-cost single-frequency Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers have been used in numerous engineering fields and applications due to their affordability and practicality. However, their main drawback has been the inability to track satellite signals in multiple frequencies, limiting their usage to short baselines only. In recent years, low-cost dual-frequency GNSS receivers equipped with Real-Time-Kinematic (RTK) engines entered the mass market, addressing many of the limitations of single-frequency GNSS receivers. This review article aimed to analyze the observations and positioning quality of low-cost GNSS receivers in different positioning methods. To provide answers to defined research questions, relevant studies on the topic were selected and investigated. From the analyzed studies, it was found that GNSS observations obtained from low-cost GNSS receivers have lower quality compared to geodetic counterparts, however, they can still provide positioning solutions with comparable accuracy in static and kinematic positioning modes, particularly for short baselines. Challenges persist in achieving high positioning accuracy over longer baselines and in adverse conditions, even with dual-frequency GNSS receivers. In the upcoming years, low-cost GNSS technology is expected to become increasingly accessible and widely utilized, effectively meeting the growing demand for positioning and navigation.

Role of folding-related deformation in the seismicity of shallow accretionary prisms

Nature Geoscience - Tue, 06/25/2024 - 00:00

Nature Geoscience, Published online: 25 June 2024; doi:10.1038/s41561-024-01474-6

Folding-related brittle deformation structures in accretionary wedges may contribute to shallow seismicity in subduction zones, according to a compilation of structural evidence.

Tipping point in ice-sheet grounding-zone melting due to ocean water intrusion

Nature Geoscience - Tue, 06/25/2024 - 00:00

Nature Geoscience, Published online: 25 June 2024; doi:10.1038/s41561-024-01465-7

Modelling results suggest that ice sheets may be more vulnerable to ocean water intrusion at the grounding zone than previously thought due to a potential tipping point that leads to runaway melting.

Resolving Organic Aerosol Components Contributing to the Oxidative Potential of PM2.5 in the North China Plain

JGR–Atmospheres - Mon, 06/24/2024 - 19:48
Abstract

The oxidative potential (OP) of ambient particulate matter (PM) is a common metric for estimating PM toxicity and linking PM exposure to adverse health effects. Organic aerosol (OA), a dominant fraction of ambient PM worldwide, may significantly contribute to PM toxicity. Here, we investigated the source-based OA components contributing to the OP of PM in the urban (Beijing, summer and winter) and rural (Gucheng, winter) environments of the North China Plain (NCP). Various OA components as identified by the aerosol mass spectrometer/aerosol chemical speciation monitor (AMS/ACSM), transition metals, and black carbon were compared with the OP of PM measured by dithiothreitol assays. The results consistently demonstrate the importance of OA as a contributor to PM's OP in both urban and rural NCP environments. Higher intrinsic OP was observed in winter Beijing than in summer, possibly due to OA being predominantly from anthropogenic sources in winter. Furthermore, different OA components were found to drive the response of OP in the two environments. More-oxidized oxygenated OA (MO-OOA), cooking OA, and oxidized primary OA (during winter) are the OA contributors to OP in the urban environment, with a dominant contribution from MO-OOA. In contrast, biomass burning OA (BBOA) and OOA play a major role in the OP in the rural environment, with BBOA making the largest contribution. Overall, this work highlights the significance of OA in determining PM's OP and calls for more work to reveal the sources and characteristics of OA components contributing to OP across different regions.

Developing an Explainable Variational Autoencoder (VAE) Framework for Accurate Representation of Local Circulation in Taiwan

JGR–Atmospheres - Mon, 06/24/2024 - 19:34
Abstract

This study develops an explainable variational autoencoder (VAE) framework to efficiently generate high-fidelity local circulation patterns in Taiwan, ensuring an accurate representation of the physical relationship between generated local circulation and upstream synoptic flow regimes. Large ensemble semi-realistic simulations were conducted using a high-resolution (2 km) model, TaiwanVVM, where critical characteristics of various synoptic flow regimes were carefully selected to focus on the effects of local circulation variations. The VAE was constructed to capture essential representations of local circulation scenarios associated with the lee vortices by training on the ensemble data set. The VAE's latent space effectively captures the synoptic flow regimes as controlling factors, aligning with the physical understanding of Taiwan's local circulation dynamics. The critical transition of flow regimes under the influence of southeasterly synoptic flow regimes is also well represented in the VAE's latent space. This indicates that the VAE can learn the nonlinear characteristics of the multiscale interactions involving the lee vortex. The latent space within VAE can serve as a reduced-order model for predicting local circulation using synoptic wind speed and direction. This explainable VAE binds the physical reasoning to the predictions of the local circulation that ensures the physical examination of the uncertainty in accelerating the local weather assessments under various climate change scenarios.

Applying recession models for low-flow prediction: a comparison of regression and matching strip approaches

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences - Mon, 06/24/2024 - 18:14
Applying recession models for low-flow prediction: a comparison of regression and matching strip approaches
Michael Margreth, Florian Lustenberger, Dorothea Hug Peter, Fritz Schlunegger, and Massimiliano Zappa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-78,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Recession models (RM) are crucial for observing the low flow behavior of a catchment. We developed two novel RM, which are designed to represent slowly draining catchment conditions. With a newly designed low flow prediction procedure we tested the prediction capability of these two models and three others from literature. One of our novel products delivered the best results, because it best represents the slowly draining catchment conditions.

Tsunami detection methods for Ocean-Bottom Pressure Gauges

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences - Mon, 06/24/2024 - 18:14
Tsunami detection methods for Ocean-Bottom Pressure Gauges
Cesare Angeli, Alberto Armigliato, Martina Zanetti, Filippo Zaniboni, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-113,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
To issue precise and timely tsunami alerts, detecting the propagating tsunami is fundamental. The most used instruments are pressure sensors positioned at the ocean bottom, called Ocean-Bottom Pressure Gauges (OBPGs). In this work, we study four different techniques that allow to recognize a tsunami as soon as it is recorded by an OBPG and a methodology to calibrate them. The techniques are compared in terms of their ability to detect and characterize the tsunami wave in real time.

Evaluation of radiation schemes in the CMA-MESO model using high time-resolution radiation measurements in China: I. Long-wave radiation

Geoscientific Model Development - Mon, 06/24/2024 - 17:57
Evaluation of radiation schemes in the CMA-MESO model using high time-resolution radiation measurements in China: I. Long-wave radiation
Junli Yang, Weijun Quan, Li Zhang, Jianglin Hu, Qiying Chen, and Martin Wild
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-74,2024
Preprint under review for GMD (discussion: open, 2 comments)
Due to the difficulties involved in the measurements of the Downward long-wave irradiance (DnLWI), the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been developed to obtain the DnLWI indirectly. In this study, a long-term high time-resolution (1 min) observational dataset of the DnLWI in China was used to evaluate the radiation scheme in the CMA-MESO model over various underlying surfaces and climate zones.

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