The usefulness of Extended-Range Probabilistic Forecasts for Heat wave forecasts in Europe
Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Virpi Kollanus, Timo Lanki, Juha Jokisalo, Risto Kosonen, David S. Richardson, and Kirsti Jylhä
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-75,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
The skill of hindcasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting heat wave days (periods with the 5-day moving average temperature being above its local summer 90th percentile) over Europe 1 to 4 weeks ahead is examined. The heat wave days forecasts show potential in warning of heat risk in 1–2 weeks in advance, and enhanced accuracy in forecasting prolonged heat waves, in lead times of up to 3 weeks, when the heat wave had initiated prior to the forecast issuance.
Finding reconnection lines and flux rope axes via local coordinates in global ion-kinetic magnetospheric simulations
Markku Alho, Giulia Cozzani, Ivan Zaitsev, Fasil Tesema Kebede, Urs Ganse, Markus Battarbee, Maarja Bussov, Maxime Dubart, Sanni Hoilijoki, Leo Kotipalo, Konstantinos Papadakis, Yann Pfau-Kempf, Jonas Suni, Vertti Tarvus, Abiyot Workayehu, Hongyang Zhou, and Minna Palmroth
Ann. Geophys., 42, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-42-145-2024, 2024
Magnetic reconnection is one of the main processes for energy conversion and plasma transport in space plasma physics, associated with plasma entry into the magnetosphere of Earth and Earth’s substorm cycle. Global modelling of these plasma processes enables us to understand the magnetospheric system in detail. However, finding sites of active reconnection from large simulation datasets can be challenging, and this paper develops tools to find magnetic topologies related to reconnection.
