Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

Spatial accessibility of emergency medical services under inclement weather: a case study in Beijing, China
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.

Review article: Current approaches and critical issues in multi-risk recovery planning of urban areas exposed to natural hazards
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.

Earthquake forecasting model for Albania: the area source model and the smoothing model
Edlira Xhafaj, Chung-Han Chan, and Kuo-Fong Ma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 109–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-109-2024, 2024
Our study introduces new earthquake forecasting models for Albania, aiming to map out future seismic hazards. By analysing earthquakes from 1960 to 2006, we have developed models that predict where activity is most likely to occur, highlighting the western coast and southern regions as high-hazard zones. Our validation process confirms these models are effective tools for anticipating seismic events, offering valuable insights for earthquake preparedness and hazard assessment efforts.

Shoreline and Land Use Land Cover Changes along the 2004 tsunami-affected South Andaman Coast: Understanding Changing Hazard Susceptibility
Vikas Ghadamode, K. Kumari Aruna, Anand K. Pandey, and Kirti Srivastava
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-191,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
In the 2004-Tsunami affected southern Andaman region tsunami wave propagation, arrival times, and run-up heights at 13 locations are computed to analyse pre- and post-tsunami shoreline and LULC changes to understand the evolving hazard scenario. The LULC changes and dynamic shoreline changes are observed in Zones 3, 4, and 5 owing to dynamic population changes, infrastructural growth, and Gross State Domestic Product growth. Economic losses would increase five-fold foa a similar tsunami.

Testing the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) against observations from Romania
Elena F. Manea, Laurentiu Danciu, Carmen O. Cioflan, Dragos Toma-Danila, and Matt Gerstenberger
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-232,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
We test and evaluate the results of the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20; Danciu et al., 2021) against observations spamming over a few centuries at twelve cities in Romania. The full distribution of the hazard curves at the given location was considered, and the testing was done for two relevant peak ground acceleration (PGA) values. Our analysis suggests that the observed exceedance rates for the selected PGA levels are consistent with ESHM20 estimates.

Estimating emergency costs for earthquakes and floods in Central Asia based on modelled losses
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.

An Impact Chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics. The multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-5,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This study delves into 1) compounded impacts and 2) the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an Impact Chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The Impact Chain shows that 1) the unforseen implications of impacts, 2) wrongful action of adaptation options, and 3) inaction can set the premises for increased vulnerability.

Brief communication: The Lahaina Fire disaster – how models can be used to understand and predict wildfires
Timothy W. Juliano, Fernando Szasdi-Bardales, Neil P. Lareau, Kasra Shamsaei, Branko Kosović, Negar Elhami-Khorasani, Eric P. James, and Hamed Ebrahimian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 47–52, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-47-2024, 2024
Following the destructive Lahaina Fire in Hawaii, our team has modeled the wind and fire spread processes to understand the drivers of this devastating event. The simulation results show that extreme winds with high variability, a fire ignition close to the community, and construction characteristics led to continued fire spread in multiple directions. Our results suggest that available modeling capabilities can provide vital information to guide decision-making during wildfire events.

Compound flood impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in climate-driven storylines
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.

Social sensing a volcanic eruption: application to Kīlauea 2018
James Hickey, James Young, Michelle Spruce, Ravi Pandit, Hywel Williams, Rudy Arthur, Wendy Stovall, and Matthew Head
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-3,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Protecting lives and livelihoods during volcanic eruptions is the key challenge in volcanology. Analysing social media usage during volcanic crises can help better understand the impacts of volcanic eruptions and how warning messages are received and actioned, to eventually better protect those people and their livelihoods. Our work shows how social media data could be used in real-time during a volcanic crises to learn more about volcanic eruptions.

Regional-scale landslide risk assessment in Central Asia
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, 2024
Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows us to identify where physical and economic losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for central Asia, and it represents an advanced step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show, per square kilometer, a total risk of about USD 3.9 billion and a mean risk of USD 0.6 million.

Floods in the Pyrenees: A global view through a regional database
María Carmen Llasat, Montserrat Llasat-Botija, Erika Pardo, Raül Marcos-Matamoros, and Marc Lemus-Canovas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-206,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Climate change is leading in the Pyrenees Massif to a change in socioeconomic increasing their sensitivity to natural risks such as floods. However, until now, no systematic study like this one had been carried out that would allow evaluating the frequency, distribution and main meteorological features of these events on a massif scale. In 35 years there have been 181 flood events that have produced 154 fatalities.

Volcanic risk ranking and regional mapping of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes
Maria-Paz Reyes-Hardy, Luigia Sara Di Maio, Lucia Dominguez, Corine Frischknecht, Sébastien Biass, Leticia Guimarães, Amiel Nieto-Torres, Manuela Elissondo, Gabriela Pedreros, Rigoberto Aguilar, Álvaro Amigo, Sebastián García, Pablo Forte, and Costanza Bonadonna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-225,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
The Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes is shared by four countries and groups 59 volcanoes. We identified the ones with the most intense and frequent eruptions (e.g., El Misti and Ubinas), the cities with the highest density of elements at risk (e.g., Arequipa and Mequegua), and the volcanoes with the highest potential impact (e.g., Cerro Blanco and Yucamane). Our study contributes into the prioritization of risk reduction resources, which is crucial for surrounding communities.

Spatial identification of regions at risk to multi-hazards at pan European level: an implemented methodological approach
Tiberiu-Eugen Antofie, Stefano Luoni, Alois Tilloy, Andrea Sibilia, Sandro Salari, Gustav Eklund, Davide Rodomonti, Christos Bountzouklis, and Christina Corbane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-220,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This is the first study that uses spatial patterns (clusters/hot-spots) and meta-analysis in order to identify the regions at European level at risk to multi-hazards. The findings point out the socio-economic dimension as determinant factor for the risk potential to multi-hazard. The outcome provides valuable input for the Disaster Risk Management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in the National Risk Assessments preparation.