Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

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Combined list of the recent articles of the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences and the recent discussion forum Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions
Updated: 5 hours 53 min ago

Exploring the relationship between avalanche hazard and large-scale terrain choices at a helicopter skiing operation – Insight from run list ratings

Mon, 03/25/2019 - 17:04
Exploring the relationship between avalanche hazard and large-scale terrain choices at a helicopter skiing operation – Insight from run list ratings
Reto Sterchi, Pascal Haegeli, and Patrick Mair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-57,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Mechanized skiing operations use an established process to select skiing terrain with a low risk level. However, the relationship between acceptable skiing terrain and avalanche hazard conditions has only received limited research attention. Our study examines this relationship numerically for the first time and shows the effects of avalanche hazard, previous skiing and previous acceptability on different types of skiing terrain and offers the foundation to develop evidence-based decision tools.

Application of the Levenburg–Marquardt back propagation neural network approach for landslide risk assessments

Mon, 03/25/2019 - 17:03
Application of the Levenburg–Marquardt back propagation neural network approach for landslide risk assessments
Junnan Xiong, Ming Sun, Hao Zhang, Weiming Cheng, Yinghui Yang, Mingyuan Sun, Yifan Cao, and Jiyan Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 629-653, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-629-2019, 2019
We want to know which areas are prone to landslides and where pipelines are more unsafe. Through a model, we determined that 33.18 % and 40.46 % of the slopes in the study are were in high-hazard and extremely high-hazard areas, respectively. The number and length of pipe segments in the highly vulnerable and extremely vulnerable areas accounted for about 12 % of the total. In general, the pipeline risk within Qingchuan and Jian'ge counties was relatively high.

Wildland fire potential outlooks for Portugal using meteorological indices of fire danger

Mon, 03/25/2019 - 12:19
Wildland fire potential outlooks for Portugal using meteorological indices of fire danger
Sílvia A. Nunes, Carlos C. DaCamara, Kamil F. Turkman, Teresa J. Calado, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-60,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Portugal is recurrently affected by large wildfire events. We present a statistical model to estimate the probability that the summer burned area exceeds a given threshold. The model allows making outlooks of wildfire potential with up to one month in advance of the fire season. When applied to the 39-year period 1980–2018, only one severe (one weak) year is not anticipated as potentially severe (weak). The model will assist the fire community when planning prevention and combating fire events.

Improvement of typhoon wind hazard model and its sensitivity analysis

Mon, 03/25/2019 - 12:19
Improvement of typhoon wind hazard model and its sensitivity analysis
Yunxia Guo, Yijun Hou, and Peng Qi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-390,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Typhoons are one of the most serious natural disasters that occur annually on China's southeast coast. Therefore, it is very important to analyze the typhoon hazard using typhoon wind hazard modeling and simulation methods. This paper describes a technique for analyzing the typhoon wind hazard based on the empirical track model. Existing simplified and non-simplified typhoon empirical track models are improved. Besides we investigate the influence of different factors on the predicted wind speed

An improved method of Newmark analysis for mapping hazards of coseismic landslides

Fri, 03/22/2019 - 17:04
An improved method of Newmark analysis for mapping hazards of coseismic landslides
Mingdong Zang, Shengwen Qi, Zhuping Sheng, Blanca S. Zamora, and Yu Zou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-42,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Coseismic landslides often cause great loss of lives and properties in the seismic zone. Accurately mapping the hazards is a very important and challenge work. This paper considers the roughness and size effect of the potential sliding surface-unloading joint, incorporates the seismic hazard analysis of the study area, and then presents an improved method of Newmark analysis for mapping hazards of coseismic landslides. The approach is well verified by Mw 6.1 Ludian earthquake in 2014.

High-spatial-resolution probability maps of drought duration and magnitude across Spain

Thu, 03/21/2019 - 09:29
High-spatial-resolution probability maps of drought duration and magnitude across Spain
Fernando Domínguez-Castro, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Miquel Tomás-Burguera, Marina Peña-Gallardo, Santiago Beguería, Ahmed El Kenawy, Yolanda Luna, and Ana Morata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 611-628, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-611-2019, 2019
We mapped – for the first time – the probability of occurrence of drought over Spain, with the overriding aim of improving current drought assessment, management and mitigation measures, and strategies across the region. Spatially, our estimations suggest a higher probability of extreme drought events in southern and central areas of Spain compared to northern and eastern regions. Nevertheless, there are strong differences among drought indices and drought timescales.

Brief communication: Preliminary hydro-meteorological analysis of the flash flood of 20 August 2018 on Raganello Gorge, Southern Italy

Thu, 03/21/2019 - 09:29
Brief communication: Preliminary hydro-meteorological analysis of the flash flood of 20 August 2018 on Raganello Gorge, Southern Italy
Elenio Avolio, Ottavio Cavalcanti, Luca Furnari, Alfonso Senatore, and Giuseppe Mendicino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-62,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
This is the first scientific report of the flash flood of 20 August 2018 on Raganello Gorge (Southern Italy), an extreme event with rather specific features (very localized in space and time), which unfortunately caused 10 victims. The meteo-hydrological dynamics were well reconstructed and the forecasting skills were evaluated using an innovative modelling approach, including fully coupled atmospheric-hydrological modelling and improved representation of Sea Surface Temperature.

Exposure-based risk assessment and emergency management associated with the fallout of large clasts at Mount Etna

Wed, 03/20/2019 - 16:35
Exposure-based risk assessment and emergency management associated with the fallout of large clasts at Mount Etna
Sara Osman, Eduardo Rossi, Costanza Bonadonna, Corine Frischknecht, Daniele Andronico, Raffaello Cioni, and Simona Scollo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 589-610, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-589-2019, 2019
The fallout of large clasts (> 5 cm) from the margins of eruptive plumes can damage local infrastructure and severely injure people close to the volcano. Even though this potential hazard has been observed at many volcanoes, it has often been overlooked. We present the first hazard and risk assessment of large-clast fallout from eruptive plumes and use Mt Etna (Italy) as a case study. The use of dedicated shelters in the case of an explosive event that occurs with no warning is also evaluated.

Impact of Hurricanes Irma and Maria on the PTWC Tsunami Warning Capability for the Caribbean Region

Tue, 03/19/2019 - 16:35
Impact of Hurricanes Irma and Maria on the PTWC Tsunami Warning Capability for the Caribbean Region
Victor Sardina, David Walsh, Kanoa Koyanagi, Stuart Weinstein, Nathan Becker, Charles McCreery, and Christa von Hillebrandt-Andrade
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-76,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 3 comments)
We quantified the impact of hurricanes Irma and Maria on the PTWC tsunami warning capability for the Caribbean region after accounting for hurricane-related seismic station outages. Within the eastern Caribbean region the hurricanes exacerbated outages to an astonishing 82 % of the available 76 stations. This resulted in up to 02:33 and 04:33 extra minutes added to the earthquake detection and response times, effectively knocking out PTWC's local tsunami warning capabilities in the region.

Brief communication: Modulation instability of internal waves in a smoothly stratified shallow fluid with a constant buoyancy frequency

Tue, 03/19/2019 - 16:35
Brief communication: Modulation instability of internal waves in a smoothly stratified shallow fluid with a constant buoyancy frequency
Kwok Wing Chow, Hiu Ning Chan, and Roger H. J. Grimshaw
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 583-587, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-583-2019, 2019
Oceanic rogue waves are unexpectedly large displacements from a tranquil background and pose dangers to shipping and offshore structures. A formulation of such abrupt, transient motions in the interior of the oceans is proposed. For constant buoyancy frequency, such internal rogue waves can occur in shallow fluids of various internal mode numbers, which is in strong contrast with surface rogue waves. Internal waves are crucial in oceanography as they affect transport of heat, mass and energy.

Impacts of the eastern route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project emergency operation on flooding and drainage in water-receiving areas: an empirical case in China

Tue, 03/19/2019 - 16:35
Impacts of the eastern route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project emergency operation on flooding and drainage in water-receiving areas: an empirical case in China
Kun Wang, Zongzhi Wang, Kelin Liu, Liang Cheng, Lihui Wang, and Ailing Ye
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 555-570, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-555-2019, 2019
To assess the impacts of the eastern route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (ER-SNWDP) of China on water-receiving areas' floods and waterlogging, a coupled 1-D/2-D hydrodynamic model is built, taking the Nansi Lake basin as an example. Some impacts, especially for emergency operations, were analysed, and selected implications are presented for the integrated management of large-scale interbasin water diversions.

Assessment of geodetic velocities using GPS campaign measurements over long baseline lengths

Tue, 03/19/2019 - 16:35
Assessment of geodetic velocities using GPS campaign measurements over long baseline lengths
Huseyin Duman and Dogan Ugur Sanli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 571-582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-571-2019, 2019
Research has been done to assess the performance of relative positioning over long baseline lengths in determining the accuracy of site velocities from GPS campaign measurements. GPS campaign measurements were generated from the IGS data, and the results were compared with PPP-derived findings. A major outcome of this study is that relative positioning over long baseline lengths produces similar accuracies to PPP. A newly proposed refinement method also improves the available PPP accuracy.

Before the fire: Assessing post-wildfire flooding and debris-flow hazards for pre-disaster mitigation

Mon, 03/18/2019 - 17:59
Before the fire: Assessing post-wildfire flooding and debris-flow hazards for pre-disaster mitigation
Ann M. Youberg, Joseph B. Loverich, Michael J. Kellogg, and Jonathan E. Fuller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-74,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
We conducted a pre-fire assessment of post-wildfire hazards to identify, at the countywide scale, areas at risk of post-wildfire flooding and debris flows, to quantify the severity and extent of those risks within two study areas, and to identify mitigation opportunities to reduce risks. Flood and debris-flow hazards were identified countywide and present significant risks within the study areas. Several identified mitigation measures have been implemented, or are planned, to reduce risks.

Decreasing uncertainty in flood frequency analyses by including historic flood events in an efficient bootstrap approach

Mon, 03/18/2019 - 17:59
Decreasing uncertainty in flood frequency analyses by including historic flood events in an efficient bootstrap approach
Anouk Bomers, Ralph Schielen, and Suzanne Hulscher
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-83,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Flood frequency curves are usually highly uncertain since they are based on short data sets of measured discharges or weather conditions. To decrease the confidence intervals, an efficient bootstrap method is developed. With this method, the data set of measured discharges of the Rhine river could be extended with approximately 600 years. The study shows that flood events decrease the confidence interval of the flood frequency curve significantly, specifically in the range of large floods.

A statistical analysis of TIR anomalies extracted by RSTs in relation to an earthquake in the Sichuan area using MODIS LST data

Fri, 03/15/2019 - 17:59
A statistical analysis of TIR anomalies extracted by RSTs in relation to an earthquake in the Sichuan area using MODIS LST data
Ying Zhang and Qingyan Meng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 535-549, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-535-2019, 2019
There is a long history of researching earthquake prediction, but weaknesses in traditional approaches to seismic hazards have become more and more evident. Remote sensing was used with earth observation technology, which is a new method that can instantly acquire a large area of abnormal information caused by earthquakes. In this paper, a popular method was tested in Sichuan but it did not perform well in earthquake predictions of this area. The causes have also been studied.

Preface: Damage of natural hazards: assessment and mitigation

Fri, 03/15/2019 - 16:26
Preface: Damage of natural hazards: assessment and mitigation
Heidi Kreibich, Thomas Thaler, Thomas Glade, and Daniela Molinari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 551-554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-551-2019, 2019

FEM-based stability charts for underground cavities in soft carbonate rocks: validation through case-study applications

Wed, 03/13/2019 - 17:50
FEM-based stability charts for underground cavities in soft carbonate rocks: validation through case-study applications
Michele Perrotti, Piernicola Lollino, Nunzio Luciano Fazio, and Mario Parise
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-55,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Based on stability charts proposed by Perrotti et al. (2018), preliminary assessment of stability/instability of underground quarries in soft carbonate rocks is discussed with reference at six case studies of underground artificial cavities, including three affected by sinkhole failures in the past and three in stable conditions at present. When underground quarries are suitably surveyed and mapped, a quantitative assessment of the stability conditions is possible.

A hazard model of sub-freezing temperatures in the United Kingdom using vine copulas

Wed, 03/13/2019 - 16:26
A hazard model of sub-freezing temperatures in the United Kingdom using vine copulas
Symeon Koumoutsaris
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 489-506, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-489-2019, 2019
Extended periods of extreme cold weather can cause severe disruptions in human societies, in terms of human health, agriculture, infrastructure, and other factors. A novel statistical model is developed in order to model these extreme cold episodes under different climate conditions. According to the model, the occurrence of extreme cold events has decreased approximately 2 times during the course of the 20th century as a result of anthropogenic climate change.

ANYCaRE: a role-playing game to investigate crisis decision-making and communication challenges in weather-related hazards

Wed, 03/13/2019 - 16:26
ANYCaRE: a role-playing game to investigate crisis decision-making and communication challenges in weather-related hazards
Galateia Terti, Isabelle Ruin, Milan Kalas, Ilona Láng, Arnau Cangròs i Alonso, Tommaso Sabbatini, and Valerio Lorini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 507-533, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-507-2019, 2019
First applications of the ANYCaRE experiment revealed that multi-model impact-based outputs help forecasters and civil protection to shape a holistic view of the situation and enhance their confidence in specific emergency activities. This interdisciplinary work is conducted in the frame of the ANYWHERE European project, which aims to provide institutions across Europe with a decision-support tool to better anticipate and respond to extreme weather and climate events.

Enhancement of large-scale flood damage assessments using building-material-based vulnerability curves for an object-based approach

Tue, 03/12/2019 - 17:50
Enhancement of large-scale flood damage assessments using building-material-based vulnerability curves for an object-based approach
Johanna Englhardt, Hans de Moel, Charles K. Huyck, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-32,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Large-scale risk assessments can be improved by a more direct relation between the type of exposed building and the impact of floods. Compared to the common land-use-based approach, our model reflects heterogeneous structures and defines building-material-based vulnerability classes. The approach is particularly interesting for areas with large variations of building types, such as in developing countries and over large-scales, and how it can be used to distinguish risk in urban and rural areas.

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