Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

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Combined list of the recent articles of the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences and the recent discussion forum Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions
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Flash floods versus river floods – a comparison of psychological impacts and implications for precautionary behaviour

Tue, 04/14/2020 - 16:56
Flash floods versus river floods – a comparison of psychological impacts and implications for precautionary behaviour
Jonas Laudan, Gert Zöller, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 999–1023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-999-2020, 2020
The paper focuses on psychological impacts of river floods and flash floods on affected individuals. Since the connection between psychological characteristics and protection motivation is not yet fully understood, potential coherences are investigated with regard to both flood types. As a main result, the frequency of remembering an event seems to be positively connected to a greater willingness to protect oneself, especially if affected by a weaker flood event.

Urban pluvial flood risk assessment – data resolution and spatial scale when developing screening approaches on the microscale

Tue, 04/14/2020 - 16:56
Urban pluvial flood risk assessment – data resolution and spatial scale when developing screening approaches on the microscale
Roland Löwe and Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 981–997, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-981-2020, 2020
To consider potential future urban developments in pluvial flood risk assessment, we develop empirical relationships for imperviousness and flood damage based on an analysis of existing urban characteristics. Results suggest that (1) data resolutions must be carefully selected, (2) there are lower limits for the spatial scale at which predictions can be generated, and (3) depth-dependent damage estimates are challenging to reproduce empirically and can be vulnerable to simulation artifacts.

The role of spatial dependence for large-scale flood risk estimation

Thu, 04/09/2020 - 16:56
The role of spatial dependence for large-scale flood risk estimation
Ayse Duha Metin, Nguyen Viet Dung, Kai Schröter, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Björn Guse, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 967–979, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-967-2020, 2020
For effective risk management, flood risk should be properly assessed. Traditionally, risk is assessed by making the assumption of invariant flow or loss probabilities (the chance that a given discharge or loss is exceeded) within the river catchment during a single flood event. However, in reality, flooding is more severe in some regions than others. This study indicates the importance of representing the spatial dependence of flood peaks and damage for risk assessments.

The utility of earth science information in post-earthquake land-use decision-making: the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence in Aotearoa New Zealand

Wed, 04/08/2020 - 16:57
The utility of earth science information in post-earthquake land-use decision-making: the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence in Aotearoa New Zealand
Mark C. Quigley, Wendy Saunders, Chris Massey, Russ Van Dissen, Pilar Villamor, Helen Jack, and Nicola Litchfield
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-83,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This paper examines the roles of earth science information (data, knowledge, advice) in land-use decision-making in Christchurch, New Zealand, throughout the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence and its aftermath. For the first time, a detailed timeline of science activities and information provisions relative to key decision-making events is provided. We highlight the importance, and challenges, of effective science communication to decision-makers in times of crisis.

Tidal flood area mapping fronts the climate change scenarios: case study in a tropical estuary of Brazilian semiarid

Wed, 04/08/2020 - 16:57
Tidal flood area mapping fronts the climate change scenarios: case study in a tropical estuary of Brazilian semiarid
Paulo Victor N. Araújo, Venerando E. Amaro, Leonlene S. Aguiar, Caio C. Lima, and Alexandre B. Lopes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-92,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This job approaching a flood risk mapping methodology against climate change scenarios in a region with a strong environmental and social appeal. The study area has been in recent years suffering severe consequences from flooding by tides. High geodetic precision data, together with tidal return period statistics and data from current sea level rise scenarios were used. This case study can serve as a basis for future management actions and as a model to be copied.

A method to use proxy data of runoff-related impacts for the evaluation of a model mapping intense storm runoff hazard: application to the railway context

Tue, 04/07/2020 - 16:57
A method to use proxy data of runoff-related impacts for the evaluation of a model mapping intense storm runoff hazard: application to the railway context
Isabelle Braud, Lilly-Rose Lagadec, Loïc Moulin, Blandine Chazelle, and Pascal Breil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 947–966, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-947-2020, 2020
A method for the evaluation of a model that maps the susceptibility of a territory to surface runoff is presented. It is based on proxy data of localized impacts related to runoff. It accounts for the hazard level, the vulnerability of the study area and possible mitigation actions taken to reduce the risk. The evaluation is made on a 80 km railway line in Normandy (north of France), where a comprehensive database of runoff-related impacts on the railway has been gathered over the 20th century.

Run-up, inundation, and sediment characteristics of the 22 December 2018 Sunda Strait tsunami, Indonesia

Mon, 04/06/2020 - 16:57
Run-up, inundation, and sediment characteristics of the 22 December 2018 Sunda Strait tsunami, Indonesia
Wahyu Widiyanto, Shih-Chun Hsiao, Wei-Bo Chen, Purwanto B. Santoso, Rudy T. Imananta, and Wei-Cheng Lian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 933–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-933-2020, 2020
This article reports the results of a field survey carried out in the disaster area of the December 2018 Sunda Strait tsunami, Indonesia. It provides data covering run-up heights, inundations, tsunami directions, and sediment characteristics. The data can be used for the validation of hydrodynamic models, and they contribute to a better understanding of the Sunda Strait tsunami caused by the Anak Krakatau volcano. In addition, they are important for spatial planning and mitigation efforts.

Design and implementation of a mobile device app for network-based earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs): application to the PRESTo EEWS in southern Italy

Fri, 04/03/2020 - 16:57
Design and implementation of a mobile device app for network-based earthquake early warning systems (EEWSs): application to the PRESTo EEWS in southern Italy
Simona Colombelli, Francesco Carotenuto, Luca Elia, and Aldo Zollo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 921–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-921-2020, 2020
We developed a mobile app for Android devices which receives the alerts generated by a network-based early warning system, predicts the expected ground-shaking intensity and the available lead time at the user position, and provides customized messages to inform the user about the proper reaction to the alert. The app represents a powerful tool for informing in real time a wide audience of end users and stakeholders about the potential damaging shaking in the occurrence of an earthquake.

Implementation of WRF-Hydro at two drainage basins in the region of Attica, Greece

Fri, 04/03/2020 - 16:57
Implementation of WRF-Hydro at two drainage basins in the region of Attica, Greece
Elissavet Galanaki, Konstantinos Lagouvardos, Vassiliki Kotroni, Theodore Giannaros, and Christos Giannaros
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-26,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)

An integrated modeling approach for simulating flood events is presented in the current study. An advanced flood forecasting model, which is based on the coupling of hydrological and atmospheric components, was used for a twofold objective: first to investigate the potential of a coupled hydrometeorological model to be used for flood forecasting at two drainage basins in the area of Attica (Greece) and second to investigate the influence of the use of the coupled hydrometeorological model on the improvement of the precipitation forecast skill. For this reason, we used precipitation and hydrometric in-situ data for 7 events at two selected drainage regions of Attica. The simulations were carried out with WRF-Hydro model, which is an enhanced version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model complemented with the feedback of terrestrial hydrology on the atmosphere, where surface and subsurface runoff were computed at a fine resolution grid of 95 m. Results showed that WRF-Hydro is capable to produce the observed discharge after the adequate calibration method at the studied basins. Besides, the WRF-Hydro has the tendency to slightly improve the simulated precipitation in comparison to the simulated precipitation produced the atmospheric only version of the model. These outcomes provide confidence that the model configuration is robust and, thus, can be used for flood research and operational forecasting purposes in the area of Attica.

Evolution of surface deformation related to salt extraction-caused sinkholes in Solotvyno (Ukraine) revealed by Sentinel-1 radar interferometry

Thu, 04/02/2020 - 17:00
Evolution of surface deformation related to salt extraction-caused sinkholes in Solotvyno (Ukraine) revealed by Sentinel-1 radar interferometry
Eszter Szűcs, Sándor Gönczy, István Bozsó, László Bányai, Alexandru Szakacs, Csilla Szárnya, and Viktor Wesztergom
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-84,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Sinkhole formation and post-collapse deformation in Solotvyno salt mining area was studied where the salt dissolution due to water intrusion poses a significant risk. Based on Sentinel-1 data set remarkable surface deformation with a maximum rate of 5 cm/yr was revealed and it was demonstrated that the deformation process has a linear characteristic although the mining activity was ended more than 10 years ago.

Multivariate statistical modelling of the drivers of compound flood events in South Florida

Thu, 04/02/2020 - 16:57
Multivariate statistical modelling of the drivers of compound flood events in South Florida
Robert Jane, Luis Cadavid, Jayantha Obeysekera, and Thomas Wahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-82,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)

Miami-Dade County (south-east Florida) is among the most vulnerable regions to sea-level rise in the United States, due to a variety of natural and human factors. The co-occurrence of multiple, often statistically dependent flooding drivers – termed compound events – typically exacerbates impacts compared with their isolated occurrence. Ignoring dependencies between the drivers will potentially lead to underestimation of flood risk and under-design of flood defence structures. At present, design assessments of flood defence structures in Miami-Dade County assume rainfall and Ocean-side Water Level (O-sWL) are fully dependent, a conservative assumption inducing large safety factors. Here, an analysis of the dependence between the principal flooding drivers over a range of lags at three locations across the county is carried out. The conservative nature of the existing structural design assessment is subsequently explored, by combining a two-dimensional analysis of rainfall and O-sWL with regional sea-level rise projections. Finally, the vine copula and Heffernan and Tawn (2004) models are shown to outperform five standard higher dimensional copulas in capturing the dependence between the principal drivers of compound flooding: rainfall, O-sWL, and groundwater level. This leads to recommendations for revised future design frameworks able to capture and represent dependencies between different flood drivers.

Exposure of real estate properties to the 2018 Hurricane Florence flooding

Wed, 04/01/2020 - 17:00
Exposure of real estate properties to the 2018 Hurricane Florence flooding
Marco Tedesco, Steven McAlpine, and Jeremy R. Porter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 907–920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-907-2020, 2020
Quantifying the exposure of house property to extreme weather events is crucial to study their impact on economy. Here, we show that value of property exposed to Hurricane Florence in September 2018 was USD 52 billion vs. USD 10 billion that would have occurred at the beginning of the 19th century due to urban expansion that increased after 1950s and the increasing number of houses built near water, showing the importance of accounting for the distribution of new buildings in risk and exposure.

On the stability interpretation of Extended Column Test results

Tue, 03/31/2020 - 17:00
On the stability interpretation of Extended Column Test results
Frank Techel, Kurt Winkler, Matthias Walcher, Alec van Herwijnen, and Jürg Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-50,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Snow instability tests, like the Extended Column Test ECT, provide valuable information regarding point snow instability. However, a robust interpretation scheme is needed, and uncertainties related to the tests' result must be considered. Therefore, a large data set of ECT – together with information on slope instability – was explored. The findings clearly show: combining information regarding propagation propensity and fracture initiation provided the best correlation with slope instability.

Review article: Towards a context-driven research: a state-of-the-art review of resilience research on climate change

Tue, 03/31/2020 - 17:00
Review article: Towards a context-driven research: a state-of-the-art review of resilience research on climate change
Ringo Ossewaarde, Tatiana Filatova, Yola Georgiadou, Andreas Hartmann, Gül Özerol, Karin Pfeffer, Peter Stegmaier, Rene Torenvlied, Mascha Van der Voort, Jord Warmink, and Bas Borsje
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-90,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
The aim of this paper is to review and structure current developments in resilience research in the field of climate change studies, in terms of the approaches, definitions, models and commitments that are typical for naturalist and constructivist research; and propose a research agenda of topics distilled from current developments in resilience research.

Linking drought indices to impacts to support drought risk assessment in Liaoning province, China

Mon, 03/30/2020 - 16:06
Linking drought indices to impacts to support drought risk assessment in Liaoning province, China
Yaxu Wang, Juan Lv, Jamie Hannaford, Yicheng Wang, Hongquan Sun, Lucy J. Barker, Miaomiao Ma, Zhicheng Su, and Michael Eastman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 889–906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-889-2020, 2020
Due to the specific applicability of drought impact indicators, this study identifies which drought indicators are suitable for characterising drought impacts and the contribution of vulnerability factors. The results show that the relationship varies across different drought impacts and cities; some factors have a strong positive correlation with drought vulnerability. This study can support drought planning work and provide background for the indices used in drought monitoring applications.

Predictive skill for atmospheric rivers in the western Iberian Peninsula

Mon, 03/30/2020 - 16:06
Predictive skill for atmospheric rivers in the western Iberian Peninsula
Alexandre M. Ramos, Pedro M. Sousa, Emanuel Dutra, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 877–888, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-877-2020, 2020

A large fraction of extreme precipitation and flood events across western Europe are triggered by atmospheric rivers (ARs). The association between ARs and extreme precipitation days over the Iberian Peninsula has been well documented for western river basins.

Since ARs are often associated with high impact weather, it is important to study their medium-range predictability. Here we perform such an assessment using the ECMWF ensemble forecasts up to 15 d for events where ARs made landfall in the western Iberian Peninsula during the winters spanning between 2012–2013 and 2015–2016. Vertically integrated horizontal water vapor transport (IVT) and precipitation from the 51 ensemble members of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) ensemble (ENS) were processed over a domain including western Europe and the contiguous North Atlantic Ocean.

Metrics concerning AR location, intensity, and orientation were computed, in order to compare the predictive skill (for different prediction lead times) of IVT and precipitation. We considered several regional boxes over western Iberia, where the presence of ARs is detected in analysis/forecasts, enabling the construction of contingency tables and probabilistic evaluation for further objective verification of forecast accuracy. Our results indicate that the ensemble forecasts have skill in detecting upcoming AR events, which can be particularly useful to better predict potential hydrometeorological extremes. We also characterized how the ENS dispersion and confidence curves change with increasing forecast lead times for each sub-domain. The probabilistic evaluation, using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, shows that for short lead times precipitation forecasts are more accurate than IVT forecasts, while for longer lead times this reverses (∼10 d). Furthermore, we show that this reversal occurs for shorter lead times in areas where the AR contribution is more relevant for winter precipitation totals (e.g., northwestern Iberia).

Stability evaluation and potential failure process of rock slopes characterized by non-persistent fractures

Mon, 03/30/2020 - 16:06
Stability evaluation and potential failure process of rock slopes characterized by non-persistent fractures
Wen Zhang, Jia Wang, Peihua Xu, Junqing Lou, Bo Shan, Fengyan Wang, Chen Cao, Xiaoxue Chen, and Jinsheng Que
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-58,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Slope failure is extremely common in mountainous areas. Therefore, the stability and potential failure of slopes must be analyzed accurately. For most fractured rock slopes, the aforementioned analyses arec onsiderably challenging. This study aims to propose a comprehensive approach that combines three well-established methods to conduct the aformentioned analyses. Finally, the critical slip surface, factor of safety, and accumulation distance are selected for safety assurance in slope analysis.

Tectonic styles of expected earthquakes in Italy as an input for seismic hazard modeling

Mon, 03/30/2020 - 16:06
Tectonic styles of expected earthquakes in Italy as an input for seismic hazard modeling
Silvia Pondrelli, Francesco Visini, Andrea Rovida, Vera D'Amico, Bruno Pace, and Carlo Meletti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-70,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
We used 100 yrs of seismicity in Italy to draw the hypothetical tectonic style of future earthquakes, with the purpose to use this information in the new seismic hazard model. To squeeze all possible information out from the available data, we created a chain of criteria to be applied in the input and output selection processes. The result is a list of cases shading from very clear ones, e.g. extensional tectonics in Central Appennines, to completely random tectonics for future seismic events.

Estimation of evapotranspiration by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Penman–Monteith temperature (PMT) and Hargreaves–Samani (HS) models under temporal and spatial criteria – a case study in Duero basin (Spain)

Fri, 03/27/2020 - 17:06
Estimation of evapotranspiration by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Penman–Monteith temperature (PMT) and Hargreaves–Samani (HS) models under temporal and spatial criteria – a case study in Duero basin (Spain)
Rubén Moratiel, Raquel Bravo, Antonio Saa, Ana M. Tarquis, and Javier Almorox
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 859–875, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-859-2020, 2020
The estimation of ETo using temperature is particularly attractive in places where air humidity, wind speed and solar radiation data are not readily available. In this study we used, for the estimation of ETo, seven models against Penman–Monteith FAO 56 with temporal (annual and seasonal) and spatial perspective over Duero basin (Spain). The results of the tested models can be useful for adopting appropriate measures for efficient water management under the limitation of agrometeorological data.

The Volcanoes of Naples: how effectively mitigating the highest volcanic risk in the World?

Fri, 03/27/2020 - 14:03
The Volcanoes of Naples: how effectively mitigating the highest volcanic risk in the World?
Giuseppe De Natale, Claudia Troise, and Renato Somma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-51,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This paper starts showing the present, low performance of eruption forecast, and then affords the problem to effectively mitigating the highest volcanic risk in the World, represented by the Naples area (Southern Italy). The problem is considered in a highly multidisciplinary way, taking into account the main economic, sociological and urban planning issues. Our study gives precise guidelines to assessing and managing volcanic risk in any densely urbanised area.

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