Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

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Combined list of the recent articles of the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences and the recent discussion forum Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions
Updated: 5 hours 37 min ago

Tsunami risk perception in Southern Italy: first evidence from a sample survey

Mon, 04/15/2019 - 17:57
Tsunami risk perception in Southern Italy: first evidence from a sample survey
Andrea Cerase, Massimo Crescimbene, Federica La Longa, and Alessandro Amato
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-97,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This is the largest scale sample survey (N = 1021) on tsunami risk perception in the Mediterranean and the first one in Italy. Data provide relevant material to ground risk communication strategies. Risk perception is affected by education level, gender and possibility of accessing reliable scientific sources. People’s understanding of tsunamis is affected by TV images of past catastrophic events in Asia, but might lead to underestimate the risk posed by small tsunamis, more likely to occur.

A susceptibility-based rainfall threshold approach for landslide occurrence

Mon, 04/15/2019 - 16:31
A susceptibility-based rainfall threshold approach for landslide occurrence
Elise Monsieurs, Olivier Dewitte, and Alain Demoulin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 775-789, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-775-2019, 2019
We propose in this study a fundamentally new approach for the definition of minimum rainfall required for the initiation of landslides based on satellite-derived antecedent rainfall estimates directly coupled with data on surface susceptibility for landslides. We apply our approach in the western branch of the East African Rift and provide first regional rainfall thresholds for landsliding in tropical Africa.

Dangerous degree forecast of soil loss on highway slopes in mountainous areas of the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau (China) using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation

Fri, 04/12/2019 - 17:57
Dangerous degree forecast of soil loss on highway slopes in mountainous areas of the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau (China) using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation
Yue Li, Shi Qi, Bin Liang, Junming Ma, Baihan Cheng, Cong Ma, Yidan Qiu, and Qinyan Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 757-774, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-757-2019, 2019
This study fully considers the characteristics of expressways in mountain areas. The catchment area is considered a prediction unit. The method of slope division is improved, and a method of improving the parameters in the model is proposed. Comparison and analysis with actual observation data show that the method of soil and water loss prediction adopted in this paper has less error and higher prediction accuracy than other models and can satisfy prediction requirements.

Re-evaluating safety risks of multifunctional dikes with a probabilistic risk framework

Wed, 04/10/2019 - 17:57
Re-evaluating safety risks of multifunctional dikes with a probabilistic risk framework
Richard Marijnissen, Matthijs Kok, Carolien Kroeze, and Jantsje van Loon-Steensma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 737-756, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-737-2019, 2019
Flood defences have the potential to be integrated with many other functions. While assessments of multifunctional dikes are usually conservative, using a probabilistic framework allows for synergies to be integrated and the risks to be made explicit. This change leads to a better perspective on the protection level of a flood defence and the effectiveness of reinforcements, allowing for better implementation of multifunctional elements on flood defences.

Mapping the susceptibility of syn-eruptive rain-triggered lahars at Vulcano island (Italy) combining field characterization and numerical modelling

Wed, 04/10/2019 - 17:57
Mapping the susceptibility of syn-eruptive rain-triggered lahars at Vulcano island (Italy) combining field characterization and numerical modelling
Valérie Baumann, Costanza Bonadonna, Sabatino Cuomo, Mariagiovanna Moscariello, Sebastien Biasse, Marco Pistolesi, and Alessandro Gattuso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-77,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Lahars are fast moving mixture of volcanic debris and water propagating downslope volcanoes that can be very dangerous for people and properties. Identification of lahar source areas and initiation mechanisms is crucial to comprehensive lahar hazard assessments. We present the first rain-triggered lahar susceptibility maps for La Fossa volcano (Vulcano, Italy) combining probabilistic tephra modelling, slope-stability modelling, precipitation data, field characterizations and geotechnical tests.

Development and validation of the terrain stability model for assessing landslide instability during heavy rain infiltration

Tue, 04/09/2019 - 17:57
Development and validation of the terrain stability model for assessing landslide instability during heavy rain infiltration
Alfonso Gutiérrez-Martín, Miguel Ángel Herrada, José Ignacio Yenes, and Ricardo Castedo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 721-736, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-721-2019, 2019
This research work of this paper completes the authors' activity in the Military Emergencies Unit of Spain in responding to the problem of slope instabilities and how to predict them in the case of heavy rains. This work completes the work of stabilization and stresses made by torrential rains in the south of Spain. The results have been satisfactory.

Post-event Field Survey of 28 September 2018 Sulawesi Earthquake and Tsunami

Tue, 04/09/2019 - 12:40
Post-event Field Survey of 28 September 2018 Sulawesi Earthquake and Tsunami
Wahyu Widiyanto, Purwanto B. Santoso, Shih-Chun Hsiao, and Rudy T. Imananta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-91,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This paper reports the results of a post-tsunami field survey conducted in the disaster area of 28 September 2018 Sulawesi, Indonesia. It provides evidences covering run-up heights, inundations, tsunami arrival times, damage characteristics, and landslides. The results can be used for validation of hydrodynamic models and they contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the Sulawesi tsunami. Besides, they are important for regional reconstruction, mitigation, planning, and development.

A new approach to mapping landslide hazards: a probabilistic integration of empirical and process-based models in the North Cascades of Washington, U.S.A.

Wed, 04/03/2019 - 18:11
A new approach to mapping landslide hazards: a probabilistic integration of empirical and process-based models in the North Cascades of Washington, U.S.A.
Ronda Strauch, Erkan Istanbulluoglu, and Jon Riedel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-104,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Identifying landslide hazards continues to be challenging but important for understanding risks. We combine benefits from modeling landslide hazards from observed landslides and site characteristics, with modeling based on physical mechanisms such as soil moisture. Integrating these two approaches improved landslide hazard mapping by accounting for processes not captured by the physically-based model. We demonstrate our approach in Washington, USA, to provide landslide hazard maps for managers.

Brief communication: Rethinking the 1998 China floods to prepare for a nonstationary future

Tue, 04/02/2019 - 21:10
Brief communication: Rethinking the 1998 China floods to prepare for a nonstationary future
Shiqiang Du, Xiaotao Cheng, Qingxu Huang, Ruishan Chen, Philip J. Ward, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 715-719, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-715-2019, 2019
A mega-flood in 1998 caused tremendous losses in China and triggered major policy adjustments in flood-risk management. This paper rethinks these policy adjustments and discusses how China should adapt to newly emerging flood challenges. We suggest that China needs novel flood-risk management approaches to address the new challenges from rapid urbanization and climate change. These include risk-based urban planning and a coordinated water governance system.

Ensemble models from machine learning: an example of wave runup and coastal dune erosion

Tue, 04/02/2019 - 21:10
Ensemble models from machine learning: an example of wave runup and coastal dune erosion
Tomas Beuzen, Evan B. Goldstein, and Kristen D. Splinter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-81,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Wave runup is important for characterizing coastal vulnerability to wave action, however it is complex and uncertain to predict. We use machine learning with a high-resolution dataset of wave runup to develop an accurate runup predictor that includes prediction uncertainty. We show how uncertainty in wave runup predictions can be used practically in a model of dune erosion to make ensemble predictions that provide more information and greater predictive skill than a single deterministic model.

A Comprehensive Evaluation of the National Water Model (NWM) – Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND) Flood Mapping Methodology

Tue, 04/02/2019 - 21:10
A Comprehensive Evaluation of the National Water Model (NWM) – Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND) Flood Mapping Methodology
J. Michael Johnson, Dinuke Munasinghe, Damilola Eyelade, and Sagy Cohen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-82,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
The coupled National Water Model (NWM) – Height Above Nearest Drainage flood mapping methodology provides the basis for operational flood forecasting across the continental United States. This paper evaluates how the method performs for 30 case studies using a historic archive of flood extents and a retrospective run of the NWM. We provide a summary of the results and discuss where the method is performing reliably; the general reasons for poor forecasts; and how the method might be improved.

Event-based probabilistic risk assessment of livestock snow disasters in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

Tue, 04/02/2019 - 18:58
Event-based probabilistic risk assessment of livestock snow disasters in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau
Tao Ye, Weihang Liu, Jidong Wu, Yijia Li, Peijun Shi, and Qiang Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 697-713, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-697-2019, 2019
Livestock and their owners in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau has long suffered from snow disaster. In order to help the local herder community better prepare for potential loss, we developed a probabilistic disaster-event simulation approach, from which livestock loss induced by a snow disaster with specific intensity and local prevention capacity could be predicted. By using this method, we managed to estimate snow disaster duration, livestock loss rate, and number at different return periods.

Invited perspectives: Mountain roads in Nepal at a new crossroads

Fri, 03/29/2019 - 20:04
Invited perspectives: Mountain roads in Nepal at a new crossroads
Karen Sudmeier-Rieux, Brian G. McAdoo, Sanjaya Devkota, Purna Chandra Lal Rajbhandari, John Howell, and Shuva Sharma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 655-660, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-655-2019, 2019
This article discusses how Nepal's development, landslide risk and geopolitics are intertwined as the country seeks to expand its road networks. However, rural villages adjacent to major roads have developed their own network of poorly constructed rural roads, which are likely to increase environmental and socioeconomic risks associated with roadside landslides. We base our observations on research conducted over a decade in Nepal, with reference to new research on roads and landslides.

Changes in ground deformation prior to and following a large urban landslide in La Paz, Bolivia, revealed by advanced InSAR

Fri, 03/29/2019 - 20:04
Changes in ground deformation prior to and following a large urban landslide in La Paz, Bolivia, revealed by advanced InSAR
Nicholas J. Roberts, Bernhard T. Rabus, John J. Clague, Reginald L. Hermanns, Marco-Antonio Guzmán, and Estela Minaya
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 679-696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-679-2019, 2019
La Paz, Bolivia, experiences frequent damaging landslides. We quantify creep before and after the city’s largest modern landslide using spaceborne InSAR. Creep of ancient landslide deposits increased in rate and extent following failure and extended into adjacent intact materials. Accelerated steady-state creep reflects complex post-failure stress redistribution. Landslide risk in La Paz, which is underlain by many large ancient landslides, may be even greater than previously thought.

Testing empirical and synthetic flood damage models: the case of Italy

Fri, 03/29/2019 - 20:04
Testing empirical and synthetic flood damage models: the case of Italy
Mattia Amadio, Anna Rita Scorzini, Francesca Carisi, Arthur H. Essenfelder, Alessio Domeneghetti, Jaroslav Mysiak, and Attilio Castellarin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 661-678, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-661-2019, 2019
Flood risk management relies on assessments performed using flood loss models of different complexities. We compared the performances of expert-based and empirical damage models on three major flood events in northern Italy. Our findings suggest that multivariate models have better potential to provide reliable damage estimates if extensive ancillary characterisation data are available. Expert-based approaches are better suited for transferability compared to empirically based approaches.

Load-resistance analysis: An alternative approach to tsunami damage assessment applied to the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami

Thu, 03/28/2019 - 17:03
Load-resistance analysis: An alternative approach to tsunami damage assessment applied to the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami
Anawat Suppasri, Kwanchai Pakoksung, Ingrid Charvet, Constance Ting Chua, Noriyuki Takahashi, Teraphan Ornthammarath, Panon Latcharote, Natt Leelawat, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-71,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
It is known that fragility functions reflect localities (building design standard and topography) and flow velocity is more important as the damage might occur before the flow depth reach its maximum value. This research demonstrate that it is possible to accurately predict building damage by considering related forces including resistant force based on building design standard with high accuracy. This method will be useful for damage assessment in areas having no experience of damaging tsunami.

Drought risk in the Bolivian Altiplano associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation using satellite imagery data

Wed, 03/27/2019 - 17:03
Drought risk in the Bolivian Altiplano associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation using satellite imagery data
Claudia Canedo-Rosso, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Georg Pflug, Bruno Condori, and Ronny Berndtsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2018-403,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Drought is a major natural hazard in the Bolivian Altiplano that causes large losses to farmers. Here, precipitation and temperature were used to predict agricultural droughts. In addition, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used to simulate quinoa and potato yield. And, the NDVI was used to target specific drought hotspot regions. A significant decrease of crop yields can be expected during positive ENSO phases. The study findings can be used for disaster risk management.

Design of parametric risk transfer solutions for volcanic eruptions: an application to Japanese volcanoes

Wed, 03/27/2019 - 17:03
Design of parametric risk transfer solutions for volcanic eruptions: an application to Japanese volcanoes
Delioma Oramas-Dorta, Giulio Tirabassi, Guillermo E. Franco, and Christina Magill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-41,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)

Volcanic eruptions are rare but potentially catastrophic phenomena, affecting societies and economies through different pathways. The 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption in Iceland, a medium-sized ash fall producing eruption, caused losses in the range of billions of dollars, mainly to the aviation and tourist industries. Financial risk transfer mechanisms such as insurance are used by individuals, companies, Governments, etc. to protect themselves from losses associated to natural catastrophes. In this work, we conceptualize and design a parametric risk transfer mechanism to offset losses to building structures arising from large, ash fall-producing volcanic eruptions. Such transfer mechanism relies on the objective measurement of physical characteristics of volcanic eruptions that are correlated with the size of resulting losses (in this case, height of the eruptive column and predominant direction of ash dispersal), in order to pre-determine payments to the risk cedant concerned. We apply this risk transfer mechanism to the case of Mount Fuji in Japan, by considering a potential risk cedant such as a regional Government interested in offsetting losses to dwellings in the heavily populated Prefectures of Tokyo and Kanagawa. The simplicity in determining eruptive column height and ash fall dispersal direction makes this design suitable for extrapolation to other volcanic settings world-wide where significant ash fall producing eruptions may occur, provided these parameters are reported by an official, reputable agency, and a suitable loss model is available for the volcanoes of interest.

The Floodwater Depth Estimation Tool (FwDET v2.0) for Improved Remote Sensing Analysis of Coastal Flooding

Tue, 03/26/2019 - 17:03
The Floodwater Depth Estimation Tool (FwDET v2.0) for Improved Remote Sensing Analysis of Coastal Flooding
Sagy Cohen, Austin Raney, Dinuke Munasinghe, Derek Loftis, Andrew Molthan, Jordan Bell, Laura Rogers, John Galantowicz, G. Robert Brakenridge, Albert J. Kettner, Yu-Fen Huang, and Yin-Phan Tsang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-78,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Flooding is the most destructive natural disaster on Earth. Satellite and airborne imagery are commonly used for flood monitoring and response. While these remote sensing techniques are effective at providing the extent of flooding these cannot be used to infer the depth of flood water. This paper describes and analyzes version 2.0 of the Floodwater Depth Estimation Tool (FwDET). FwDET 2.0 offer enhanced calculation algorithm for coastal regions and much-improved run time.

CCAF-DB: The Caribbean and Central American Active Fault Database

Mon, 03/25/2019 - 18:12
CCAF-DB: The Caribbean and Central American Active Fault Database
Richard Styron, Julio García-Pelaez, and Marco Pagani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-46,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
The Caribbean and Central American region is both tectonically active and densely populated, leading to a large population that is exposed to earthquake hazards. Until now, no comprehensive fault data covering the region has been available. We present a new, public fault database for Central America and the Caribbean that synthesizes published studies with new mapping from remote sensing, to provide fault sources for the CCARA seismic hazard and risk analysis project and to aid future research.

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