Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

Syndicate content
Combined list of the recent articles of the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences and the recent discussion forum Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions
Updated: 2 weeks 3 days ago

Towards multi-objective optimization of large-scale fluvial landscaping measures

Mon, 06/17/2019 - 16:01
Towards multi-objective optimization of large-scale fluvial landscaping measures
Menno W. Straatsma, Jan M. Fliervoet, Johan A. H. Kabout, Fedor Baart, and Maarten G. Kleinhans
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1167-1187, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1167-2019, 2019
Climate adaptation of deltas is a hot topic given their high population density in many countries. We quantified trade-offs between hydraulics, potential biodiversity, implementation costs, and the number of land owners involved, using a newly developed tool called RiverScape. With our approach, we move towards finding integrated solutions at the scale of a large river in a delta to support the negotiations among stakeholders in the decision-making process.

A high-resolution spatial assessment of the impacts of drought variability on vegetation activity in Spain from 1981 to 2015

Mon, 06/17/2019 - 16:01
A high-resolution spatial assessment of the impacts of drought variability on vegetation activity in Spain from 1981 to 2015
Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Marina Peña-Gallardo, Miquel Tomas-Burguera, Fernando Domínguez-Castro, Natalia Martín-Hernández, Santiago Beguería, Ahmed El Kenawy, Iván Noguera, and Mónica García
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1189-1213, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1189-2019, 2019
Drought is a major driver of vegetation activity in Spain. Here we used a high-resolution remote-sensing dataset spanning the period from 1981 to 2015 to assess the sensitivity of 23 vegetation types to drought across Spain. Results demonstrate that vegetation activity is controlled largely by the interannual variability of drought. Nevertheless, there are some considerable spatio-temporal variations, which can be linked to differences in land cover and aridity conditions.

Flood Inundation Mapping of Low-, Medium-, and High-Flow Events Using the AutoRoute Model

Mon, 06/17/2019 - 16:01
Flood Inundation Mapping of Low-, Medium-, and High-Flow Events Using the AutoRoute Model
Michael L. Follum, Ahmad A. Tavakoly, Joseph L. Gutenson, and Ricardo Vera
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-180,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
AutoRoute is one of the tools used by the U.S. Military to create high-resolution flood inundation maps at regional- to continental-scales. Although proven to be useful in simulating floods in remote regions of the world, the accuracy of the model has had only limited testing for non-extreme flood cases. This paper presents improvements to AutoRoute to accurately simulate both extreme and non-extreme flood cases while improving the applicability in a production setting.

Towards measuring resilience of flood-prone communities: a conceptual framework

Mon, 06/17/2019 - 13:52
Towards measuring resilience of flood-prone communities: a conceptual framework
Victor O. Oladokun and Burrell E. Montz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1151-1165, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1151-2019, 2019
Community resilience is an important policy and research concept. However, lack of an operational measurement framework exists due to difficulties in systematically integrating socioeconomic and techno-ecological factors. A conceptual and mathematical model was developed and a fuzzy logic equivalent of the model implemented to generate a resilience index for three communities in the US. This model offers a viable approach for measuring community flood resilience despite data limitations.

Analysis of an extreme weather event in a hyper-arid region using WRF-Hydro coupling, station, and satellite data

Thu, 06/13/2019 - 16:01
Analysis of an extreme weather event in a hyper-arid region using WRF-Hydro coupling, station, and satellite data
Youssef Wehbe, Marouane Temimi, Michael Weston, Naira Chaouch, Oliver Branch, Thomas Schwitalla, Volker Wulfmeyer, Xiwu Zhan, Jicheng Liu, and Abdulla Al Mandous
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1129-1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1129-2019, 2019
The work addresses the need for reliable precipitation forecasts in hyper-arid environments through state-of-the-art hydro-meteorological modeling. Accounting for land–atmosphere interactions in the applied model is shown to improve the accuracy of precipitation output. The chain of events controlling the soil moisture–precipitation feedback are diagnosed and verified by in situ observations and satellite data.

Taylor's power law in the Wenchuan earthquake sequence with fluctuation scaling

Wed, 06/12/2019 - 17:32
Taylor's power law in the Wenchuan earthquake sequence with fluctuation scaling
Peijian Shi, Mei Li, Yang Li, Jie Liu, Haixia Shi, Tao Xie, and Chong Yue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1119-1127, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1119-2019, 2019
A statistical method is tentatively utilized to study distribution properties of aftershocks of the Wenchuan sequence in the view of energy release. The results show that the events in the Wenchuan sequence are not independent but have mutual attraction, their spatio–temporal distribution tends to be nonrandom but definite and deterministic, and imply it is possible for energy release to be predicted, although we cannot accurately predict the occurrence time and locations of the imminent event.

The spatial dimension in the assessment of socio-economic vulnerability challenges for an application on an urban scale, a systematic review

Tue, 06/11/2019 - 17:32
The spatial dimension in the assessment of socio-economic vulnerability challenges for an application on an urban scale, a systematic review
Diana Contreras and Alondra Chamorro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-147,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
We identified 21 spatial variables, 19 spatial indicators and four spatial indexes. Geographic Information Systems, Remote Sensing, statistical analysis and programming languages are tools used by the scientists for the assessment of socio-economic vulnerability. We concluded that it is not sufficient to only estimate the specific level of vulnerability per unit area; it is also necessary to determine the influence of the spatial component in this degree of socio-economic vulnerability.

Infrasound and seismoacoustic signatures of the September 28th 2018 Sulawesi super shear earthquake

Tue, 06/11/2019 - 17:32
Infrasound and seismoacoustic signatures of the September 28th 2018 Sulawesi super shear earthquake
Christoph Pilger, Peter Gaebler, Lars Ceranna, Alexis Le Pichon, Julien Vergoz, Anna Perttu, Dorianne Tailpied, and Benoit Taisne
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-179,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This paper provides infrasound data analysis, modeling and interpretation of the source characteristics of the 28 September 2018 Magnitude 7.5 Sulawesi earthquake. Epicentral ground movement by the earthquake rupture as well as the secondary shaking of nearby mountaineous topography is responsible for the strong infrasound generated. Findings allow to improve the knowledge about infrasonic and seismoacoustic source processes and the monitoring capabilities of the infrasound arrays used.

Geologic and geomorphic controls on rockfall hazard: how well do past rockfalls predict future distributions?

Tue, 06/11/2019 - 17:32
Geologic and geomorphic controls on rockfall hazard: how well do past rockfalls predict future distributions?
Josh Borella, Mark Quigley, Zoe Krauss, Krystina Lincoln, Januka Attanayake, Laura Stamp, Henry Lanman, Stephanie Levine, Sam Hampton, and Darren Gravley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-178,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
In this paper we evaluate geologic, geomorphic, and anthropogenic controls on rockfall hazard and highlight the complexity of interpreting future rockfall hazard based on former boulder distributions. To evaluate how past rockfall deposits relate to contemporary rockfall hazard, we mapped then compared the locations, physical characteristics, and lithologies of rockfall boulders deposited during the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence (n = 185) with their prehistoric counterparts (n = 1093).

Economic assessment of measures aimed at reducing flood damage to buildings using computer modelling and expert judgement

Tue, 06/11/2019 - 16:15
Economic assessment of measures aimed at reducing flood damage to buildings using computer modelling and expert judgement
Claire Richert, Hélène Boisgontier, and Frédéric Grelot
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-161,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
To limit the losses due to floods, people can adopt measures to protect their dwellings. We assessed the cost and efficacy of such measures using computer modelling. We found that the benefits of most of the measures studied are unlikely to exceed their cost when they are taken in dwellings that are not exposed to frequent floods (probability of occurrence of less than 1/100 by year). Besides, it is often less expensive to use building materials adapted to floods than other common materials.

Simulations of the 2005, 1910 and 1876 Vb cyclones over the Alps – Sensitivity to model physics and cyclonic moisture flux

Thu, 06/06/2019 - 16:15
Simulations of the 2005, 1910 and 1876 Vb cyclones over the Alps – Sensitivity to model physics and cyclonic moisture flux
Peter Stucki, Paul Froidevaux, Marcelo Zamuriano, Francesco Alessandro Isotta, Martina Messmer, and Andrey Martynov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-174,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
In 1876, 1910 and 2005, Switzerland was impacted by extreme rainfall and floods. All events were linked to a Vb cyclone. We test a range of weather model setups (short spin-up and standard physics are best) to understand the sensitivity of atmospheric dynamics. The simulated Vb cyclones are (not) well defined for 2005 and 1910 (1876). To reproduce the events, intense moisture flux from the right direction is needed. Storms that slightly deviate from an ideal path produce erroneous precipitation.

Probabilistic characteristics of narrow-band long wave run-up onshore

Thu, 06/06/2019 - 16:15
Probabilistic characteristics of narrow-band long wave run-up onshore
Sergey Gurbatov and Efim Pelinovsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-176,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Very often hazardous sea waves approach to the coast having irregular structure. They should be characterized by the statistical characteristics. They are found here within analytical theory of shallow-water wave runup on a beach without breaking. Obtained distribution functions can be used for estimates of the flooding zone characteristics in marine natural hazards.

Modeling the effects of sediment concentration on the propagation of flash floods in an Andean watershed

Wed, 06/05/2019 - 18:06
Modeling the effects of sediment concentration on the propagation of flash floods in an Andean watershed
María Teresa Contreras and Cristián Escauriaza
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-168,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
In this investigation we study the effects of high sediment concentrations on the dynamics of flash floods in mountain regions, with an application to a river in the Andes that has produced catastrophic events in the city of Santiago, Chile. We develop an advanced computational model to understand the effects of floods with high sediment loads on steep channels. These new insights can be used to design early warning systems and contribute to urban planning in cities near mountain rivers.

Urban anomalies in response to rainstorms based on smartphone location data: a case study of eight cities in China

Mon, 06/03/2019 - 18:06
Urban anomalies in response to rainstorms based on smartphone location data: a case study of eight cities in China
Jiawei Yi, Yunyan Du, Fuyuan Liang, Tao Pei, Ting Ma, and Chenghu Zhou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-136,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
This paper exploited the advantages of smartphone location data to study the human responses to rainstorm disasters. Intense rainstorms disrupt city residents’ behaviors as reflected in anomalies of location-based service request. Anomaly identification from fine-scale smartphone location data facilitates monitoring social responses to rainstorms. Resident’s collective geo-tagged behaviors in different cities show different sensitivities to rainstorms.

Reconstruction of past marine submersion events (storms and tsunamis) on the North Atlantic coast of Morocco

Mon, 06/03/2019 - 13:51
Reconstruction of past marine submersion events (storms and tsunamis) on the North Atlantic coast of Morocco
Otmane Khalfaoui, Laurent Dezileau, Jean-Philippe Degeai, and Maria Snoussi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-130,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
The North Atlantic coast of Morocco has been historically affected by marine submersion events resulting from storms or tsunamis and causing economic losses and human fatalities. To establish adaptation and mitigation strategies, it is essential to study these events in terms of spatial and temporal variability. Using a geological archive (sediment core) retrieved from this coastal area of Morocco, we present a reconstruction of past marine submersion events over the last 4000 years.

Initial Assessment of Landslide Prone Area using Soil Properties

Tue, 05/28/2019 - 16:34
Initial Assessment of Landslide Prone Area using Soil Properties
Yanto, Arwan Apriyono, Purwanto Bekti Santoso, and Sumiyanto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-131,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Landslide occurs when the safety factor (SF), defined as ratio of shear strength and acting force less than 1. Those parameters are influenced by soil properties. We found that many civil laboratories have this information. We are curious if we can identify landslide prone area using soil properties. This study is initial phase of our entire study to develop translational landslide model which will be useful to map landslide prone area based on on its safety factor.

Chilling accumulation in fruit trees in Spain under climate change

Mon, 05/27/2019 - 16:34
Chilling accumulation in fruit trees in Spain under climate change
Alfredo Rodríguez, David Pérez-López, Enrique Sánchez, Ana Centeno, Iñigo Gómara, Alessandro Dosio, and Margarita Ruiz-Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1087-1103, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1087-2019, 2019
Growing trees are vulnerable to cold temperatures. Fruit trees stop their growth during the coldest months of the year until meeting a required cold accumulation, specific for each tree species and variety. Under global warming, a reduction in cold accumulation in Spain is projected. This threatens the viability of some current tree crops and varieties in some areas, but other varieties with less requirements can be used. Our results allow adaptation of tree plantations to climate change.

Significance of substrate soil moisture content for rockfall hazard assessment

Mon, 05/27/2019 - 16:34
Significance of substrate soil moisture content for rockfall hazard assessment
Louise Mary Vick, Valerie Zimmer, Christopher White, Chris Massey, and Tim Davies
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1105-1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1105-2019, 2019
Rockfall boulders can travel long distances downslope, and it is important to predict how far fatalities can be prevented. A comparison of earthquake data from New Zealand during summer and full-scale rockfall experiments in the same soil during winter shows that during dry seasons boulders travel further downslope because the soil is harder. When using predictive tools, engineers and geologists should take soil conditions (and seasonal variations thereof) into account.

Framework to prioritize watersheds for diffuse pollution management in Korea: application of multicriteria analysis using the Delphi method

Mon, 05/27/2019 - 16:01
Framework to prioritize watersheds for diffuse pollution management in Korea: application of multicriteria analysis using the Delphi method
Gyumin Lee, Kyung Soo Jun, and Minji Kang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-152,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 3 comments)
This study proposes a system for the scientific selection of evaluation indices and priority areas for non-point source control. We developed a framework to prioritize catchments in terms of the risk of non-point source pollution considering the characteristics of polluted runoff from a non-point source using a multi-criteria decision-making method.

Spatial indicators for desertification in south-east Vietnam

Mon, 05/27/2019 - 16:01
Spatial indicators for desertification in south-east Vietnam
Le Thi Thu Hien, Anne Gobin, and Pham Thi Thanh Huong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-146,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Desertification is influenced by different factors that relate to climate, natural resources and human pressure. In south-east Vietnam nearly 15 % of the area is desertified and another 35 % is at severe risk. With climate change and population growth the desertified area is projected to increase with 122 % towards 2050. We developed a framework that allows for decision support in a what-if structure, and that can be extended to regions that experience similar sensitivities.

Theme by Danetsoft and Danang Probo Sayekti inspired by Maksimer