Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

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Combined list of the recent articles of the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences and the recent discussion forum Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions
Updated: 1 day 31 min ago

Evaluation of global seismicity along Northern and Southern hemispheres

Mon, 05/25/2020 - 18:20
Evaluation of global seismicity along Northern and Southern hemispheres
Olaide Sakiru Hammed, Theophilus Aanuoluwa Adagunodo, Musa Oluwafemi Awoyemi, Joel Olayide Amosun, Tokunbo Sanmi Fagbemigun, and Tobi Ebenezer Komolafe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-128,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)

Reliability-based strength modification factor for seismic design spectra considering structural degradation

Mon, 05/25/2020 - 18:20
Reliability-based strength modification factor for seismic design spectra considering structural degradation
Sonia E. Ruiz, Ali Rodríguez-Castellanos, Edén Bojórquez, Miguel A. Orellana, and Afredo Reyes-Salazar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-116,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Seismic design guidelines for building structures present simplified approaches to include relevant structural behavior that affects the structural response through design-spectra modification factors. The objective of this study is to propose simplified mathematical expressions to modify the design-spectra to consider the stiffness and strength degrading behavior of structures. Additionally, these expressions are proposed to be included in the next version of the Mexico City Building Code.

Research article: Household resilience to major slow kinetics floods: a prospective survey of the capacity to evacuate in high rise buildings in Paris

Mon, 05/25/2020 - 18:20
Research article: Household resilience to major slow kinetics floods: a prospective survey of the capacity to evacuate in high rise buildings in Paris
Nathalie Rabemalanto, Nathalie Pottier, Abla Mimi Edjossan-Sossou, and Marc Vuillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-150,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This article presents the results of a household's survey living in Paris in one of the largest concentrations of high-rise buildings in the city, located in a slow kinetic flood zone along the Seine. As part of a research project, we assessed household's propensity to self-evacuate. Results reveals that household's capacities are partially depend on their ability to find alternative accommodation. They also have a misperception of the authorities' capacity for action.

Data impact studies with the AROME WMED reanalysis of the HyMeX SOP1

Mon, 05/25/2020 - 18:20
Data impact studies with the AROME WMED reanalysis of the HyMeX SOP1
Nadia Fourrié, Mathieu Nuret, Pierre Brousseau, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-153,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Impact of assimilation of various observation data set on the forecasts is studied in a mesoscale weather model. The ground-based GNSS Zenithal Total Delay data set providing information on humidity has the largest impact on the analyses and the forecasts. Indeed it represents an evenly spread and frequent data set available at each analysis time over the model domain. Moreover, the reprocessing of these data also improves the forecast quality but this impact is not statistically significant.

Network-risk: an open GIS toolbox for estimating the implications of transportation network damage due to natural hazards, tested for Bucharest, Romania

Sat, 05/23/2020 - 18:20
Network-risk: an open GIS toolbox for estimating the implications of transportation network damage due to natural hazards, tested for Bucharest, Romania
Dragos Toma-Danila, Iuliana Armas, and Alexandru Tiganescu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1421–1439, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1421-2020, 2020
Natural hazards have an increasing impact on transportation networks. In order to analyze it we developed Network-risk – an open toolbox for ArcGIS. The toolbox links input data such as network datasets (also OpenStreetMap – OSM – data), traffic values or segments which can be affected, determining the difficulty to reach an area and enabling evaluation of socioeconomic implications. By testing Network-risk for Bucharest we show areas difficult to reach by emergency units in earthquakes.

Geo-climatic hazards in the eastern subtropical Andes: distribution, climate drivers and trends

Wed, 05/20/2020 - 18:29
Geo-climatic hazards in the eastern subtropical Andes: distribution, climate drivers and trends
Iván Vergara, Stella M. Moreiras, Diego Araneo, and René Garreaud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1353–1367, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1353-2020, 2020
Geo-climatic hazards usually cause large losses of human life and economic losses. As they are very susceptible to weather, in many regions of the world these hazards are changing in frequency and magnitude due to current climate change. The purpose of this paper is to understand if, in the subtropical Andes of Argentina, these phenomena are increasing or decreasing and subsequently to understand the causes of these possible changes.

Meteorology triggering factors analysis for rainfall induced hydrogeological events in alpine region

Wed, 05/20/2020 - 18:29
Meteorology triggering factors analysis for rainfall induced hydrogeological events in alpine region
Andrea Abbate, Monica Papini, and Laura Longoni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-118,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
In this paper was examined in deep the relation between the intensity of meteorological events and the magnitude of the triggered hydrogeological issues. An extended back analysis was developed across a region of Central Alps. The meteorological triggers were interpreted using twofold approaches: the classical approach considering rain gauges and a new one considering meteorological reanalysis maps. The results were correlated with the estimated magnitude of each hydrogeological events.

Brief communication: Comparing hydrological and hydrogeomorphic paradigms for global flood hazard mapping

Wed, 05/20/2020 - 18:20
Brief communication: Comparing hydrological and hydrogeomorphic paradigms for global flood hazard mapping
Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Fernando Nardi, Antonio Annis, Vincent Odongo, Maria Rusca, and Salvatore Grimaldi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1415–1419, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1415-2020, 2020
Global floodplain mapping has rapidly progressed over the past few years. Different methods have been proposed to identify areas prone to river flooding, resulting in a plethora of available products. Here we assess the potential and limitations of two main paradigms and provide guidance on the use of these global products in assessing flood risk in data-poor regions.

Systematic error analysis of heavy-precipitation-event prediction using a 30-year hindcast dataset

Wed, 05/20/2020 - 18:20
Systematic error analysis of heavy-precipitation-event prediction using a 30-year hindcast dataset
Matteo Ponzano, Bruno Joly, Laurent Descamps, and Philippe Arbogast
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1369–1389, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1369-2020, 2020
We assess a methodology to evaluate and improve intense precipitation forecasting in the southeastern French region. This methodology is based on the use of a 30-year dataset of past forecasts which are analysed using a spatial verification approach. We found that precipitation forecasting is qualitatively driven by the deep-convection parametrization. Locally the model is able to reproduce the distribution of spatially integrated rainfall patterns of the most intense precipitation.

A multi-hazard risk prioritisation framework for cultural heritage assets

Wed, 05/20/2020 - 18:20
A multi-hazard risk prioritisation framework for cultural heritage assets
Giacomo Sevieri, Carmine Galasso, Dina D'Ayala, Richard De Jesus, Andres Oreta, Mary Earl Daryl A. Grio, and Rhodella Ibabao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1391–1414, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1391-2020, 2020
Multi-hazard risk assessment of cultural heritage assets is of primary importance in natural-hazard-prone areas, particularly for the prioritization of disaster risk reduction and resilience-enhancing strategies. This paper introduces a multi-hazard risk prioritisation framework specifically developed for cultural heritage assets. The proposed framework relies on a multi-level rapid-visual-survey form for the multi-hazard data collection and risk prioritization of case-study assets.

An 18-year climatology of derechos in Germany

Tue, 05/19/2020 - 18:29
An 18-year climatology of derechos in Germany
Christoph P. Gatzen, Andreas H. Fink, David M. Schultz, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1335–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1335-2020, 2020
Derechos are widespread, convectively induced severe wind events. A climatology of derechos in Germany is presented. It shows that derechos are not uncommon across the country. Two seasonal peaks indicate a comparable derecho risk in summer and winter. At the same time, we found two different derecho types, a warm- and a cold-season type. We present characteristics of both derecho types that can help forecasters to estimate the potential derecho threat in a given weather situation.

Construct and evaluate the classification models of six types of geological hazards in Bijie city, Guizhou province, China

Tue, 05/19/2020 - 18:29
Construct and evaluate the classification models of six types of geological hazards in Bijie city, Guizhou province, China
JieQing Shi, Jin Zhang, and ChaoYong Shen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-124,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
We attempted to establish diverse classifiers for all geological hazards in the area with high incidence of geological hazards, analyzed and compared the performance of all the classifiers. What’s more, we further discussed the relationship between the disparate conditioning factors and various geological disasters in the study area. Among them, the conditioning factors used in the establishment of the model are selected from the original conditioning factors library by scientific methods.

A multivariate statistical method for susceptibility analysis of debris flow in southwestern China

Mon, 05/18/2020 - 17:53
A multivariate statistical method for susceptibility analysis of debris flow in southwestern China
Feng Ji, Zili Dai, and Renjie Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1321–1334, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1321-2020, 2020
Southwest China is a severe disaster zone in terms of debris flow. To analyze the susceptibility to debris flows in this area, this study evaluates 70 typical debris flow gullies as statistical samples and proposes an empirical model based on quantification theory. A total of 10 debris flow gullies on the upstream of the Dadu River are analyzed to verify the reliability of the proposed model. The results show that the accuracy of the statistical model is 90 %.

A classification scheme to determine wildfires from the satellite record in the cool grasslands of southern Canada: considerations for fire occurrence modelling and warning criteria

Fri, 05/15/2020 - 17:53
A classification scheme to determine wildfires from the satellite record in the cool grasslands of southern Canada: considerations for fire occurrence modelling and warning criteria
Dan K. Thompson and Kimberly Morrison
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-145,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
We describe critically low relative humidity and high wind speeds above which only documented wildfires were seen to occur and where no agricultural fires were documented. We then applied these thresholds to the much larger satellite record from 2002–2018 to quantify how differing areas of the prairies see variable rates of wildfire and agricultural burning across Canada.

Dynamicity of multi-channel rip currents induced by rhythmic sandbars

Thu, 05/14/2020 - 16:34
Dynamicity of multi-channel rip currents induced by rhythmic sandbars
Yao Zhang, Xiao Hong, GuoDong Xu, Xunan Liu, Xinping Chen, Yuxi Sun, Bin Wang, and Chi Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-97,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Rip currents and surf zone drowning records are reported at many recreational beaches in China, which show seasonal and spatial variations. Case studies and numerical simulations were conducted to explore the dynamicity of multi-channel rip currents generated by rhythmic sandbars. The scientific findings provides fundamental advance in the understanding how the rip current responds to morphodynamic and hydrodynamic changes, and could be applied to better predict the rip current hazard.

Experimental assessment of the relationship between rainfall intensity and sinkholes caused by damaged sewer pipes

Thu, 05/14/2020 - 16:34
Experimental assessment of the relationship between rainfall intensity and sinkholes caused by damaged sewer pipes
Tae-Young Kwak, Sang-Inn Woo, Choong-Ki Chung, and Joonyoung Kim
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-143,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
In this study, model tests were used to analyze the effects of rainfall intensity on the formation of the eroded zone and the occurrence of sinkholes due to groundwater infiltration through pipe defects. The model tests were conducted to simulate the actual site conditions considering the soil used around sewer pipe networks and the sewer pipe landfill standards. The groundwater level was applied to the model tests by setting three hydraulic heads based on the heavy rainfall characteristics.

Analysis of the instability conditions and failure mode of a special type of translational landslide using long-term monitoring data: a case study of the Wobaoshi landslide (in Bazhong, China)

Thu, 05/14/2020 - 07:46
Analysis of the instability conditions and failure mode of a special type of translational landslide using long-term monitoring data: a case study of the Wobaoshi landslide (in Bazhong, China)
Yimin Liu, Chenghu Wang, Guiyun Gao, Pu Wang, Zhengyang Hou, and Qisong Jiao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1305–1319, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1305-2020, 2020
We considered a translational landslide exhibiting an unusual morphology, i.e., the Wobaoshi landslide. The deformation and failure mode of the plate-shaped bodies were analyzed and investigated based on numerical simulations and calculations. The monitoring data and geomechanical model proved that the accumulated water pressure in cracks causes the plate-shaped bodies to creep. Therefore, these research findings are of reference significance for the rainfall-induced translational landslides.

Classification and susceptibility assessment of debris flow based on a semi-quantitative method combination of the fuzzy C-means algorithm, factor analysis and efficacy coefficient

Thu, 05/14/2020 - 07:46
Classification and susceptibility assessment of debris flow based on a semi-quantitative method combination of the fuzzy C-means algorithm, factor analysis and efficacy coefficient
Zhu Liang, Changming Wang, Songling Han, Kaleem Ullah Jan Khan, and Yiao Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1287–1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1287-2020, 2020
The present study built a semi-quantitative classification and susceptibility assessment method for a study area, combining multiple mathematical methods and 3S technologies. The results have been verified with field investigation and other evaluation methods. Different methods have their own advantages and disadvantages, and some methods are complementary to a certain extent, so it is desirable to enhance the rationality of the application through the combination of multiple methods.

Non-stationary extreme value analysis applied to seismic fragility assessment for nuclear safety analysis

Wed, 05/13/2020 - 16:34
Non-stationary extreme value analysis applied to seismic fragility assessment for nuclear safety analysis
Jeremy Rohmer, Pierre Gehl, Marine Marcilhac-Fradin, Yves Guigueno, Nadia Rahni, and Julien Clément
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1267–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1267-2020, 2020
Fragility curves (FCs) are key tools for seismic probabilistic safety assessments that are performed at the level of the nuclear power plant (NPP). These statistical methods relate the probabilistic seismic hazard loading at the given site to the required performance of the NPP safety functions. In the present study, we investigate how the tools of non-stationary extreme value analysis can be used to model in a flexible manner the FCs for NPP.

Challenges in flood modelling over data scarce regions: how to exploit globally available soil moisture products to estimate antecedent soil wetness conditions in Morocco

Tue, 05/12/2020 - 16:34
Challenges in flood modelling over data scarce regions: how to exploit globally available soil moisture products to estimate antecedent soil wetness conditions in Morocco
El Mahdi El Khalki, Yves Tramblay, Christian Massari, Luca Brocca, and Mohamed El Mehdi Saidi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-119,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
In North Africa, the vulnerability to floods is high and there is a need to improve the flood forecasting systems. Remote sensing and reanalysis data can palliate the lack of in-situ measurements, in particular for soil moisture that is a crucial parameter to consider when modelling floods. In this study we provide an evaluation of recent globally available soil moisture products for flood modelling in Morocco.

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