Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

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Combined list of the recent articles of the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences and the recent discussion forum Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions
Updated: 5 hours 17 min ago

Hazard maps with differentiated exceedance probability for flood impact assessment

Fri, 05/24/2019 - 17:34
Hazard maps with differentiated exceedance probability for flood impact assessment
Punit Kumar Bhola, Jorge Leandro, and Markus Disse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-158,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
In operational flood risk management, the best-model is used to assess the impact of flooding, which might misrepresent uncertainties in the modelling process. This study uses the quantified uncertainties in flood forecasting to generate flood hazards maps that were combined based on exceedance probability scenarios. The purpose is to differentiate the impact of flooding depending on the building use, which plays a significant role in flood impact assessment, spatial planning and early warning.

Reconstructing patterns of coastal risk in space and time along the US Atlantic Coast, 1970-2016

Fri, 05/24/2019 - 17:34
Reconstructing patterns of coastal risk in space and time along the US Atlantic Coast, 1970-2016
Scott B. Armstrong and Eli D. Lazarus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-159,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This work examines relationships between coastal hazard, exposure, and vulnerability to describe trajectories of risk at the county scale along the US Atlantic Coast over the past five decades. Our findings suggest that modelling efforts to predict future coastal risk need to address feedbacks between hazard, exposure, and vulnerability to capture emergent patterns of risk in space and time.

Examining the sustainability and development challenge in agricultural-forest frontiers of the Amazon Basin through the eyes of locals

Thu, 05/23/2019 - 15:46
Examining the sustainability and development challenge in agricultural-forest frontiers of the Amazon Basin through the eyes of locals
Irene Blanco-Gutiérrez, Rhys Manners, Consuelo Varela-Ortega, Ana Tarquis, Lucieta G. Martorano, and Marisol Toledo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-144,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
The Amazon rainforest is being destroyed, resulting in negative ecological and social impacts. We explore how stakeholders perceive the causes of the Amazon’s degradation in Bolivia and Brazil and develop a series of scenarios to help strengthen the balance between human development and environmental conservation. The results suggest that the application of governance and well-integrated technical and social reform strategies encourage positive regional changes even under climate change.

Analysis of instability conditions and failure mode of a special type of translational landslide using a long-period monitoring data: a case study of the Wobaoshi landslide (Bazhong city, China)

Thu, 05/23/2019 - 15:46
Analysis of instability conditions and failure mode of a special type of translational landslide using a long-period monitoring data: a case study of the Wobaoshi landslide (Bazhong city, China)
Yimin Liu, Chenghu Wang, Guiyun Gao, Pu Wang, Zhengyang Hou, and Qisong Jiao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-133,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
A translational landslide comprising nearly horizontal sand and mud interbed was widely developed in the Ba river basin of the Qinba–Longnan mountain area. Scholars have conducted theoretical research on this rainfall-induced landslide; however, owing to the lack of landslide monitoring engineering and data, demonstrating and validating the theoretical research wasdifficult. This study considered a translational landslide with an unusual morphology: the Wobaoshi landslide, which is located in Bazhong city, China. First, the formation conditions of this landslide were ascertained through field exploration, and the deformation and failure characteristics of the plate-shaped sliding body were analyzed. Then, long-period monitoring engineering was conducted to obtain multi-parameter monitoring data, such as crack width, rainfall intensity, and pore-water pressure. Finally, through the mechanical model analysis of the multi-stage sliding bodies, the calculating formula of the maximum height of the multi-stage plate girders, hcr, was derived,and the long-period monitoring data were used to verify its accuracy. Combined with numerical simulation and calculations, the deformation and failure modes of the plate-shaped sliding bodies were analyzed and explored. In this paper, the multi-parameter monitoring data proved that the stability of the sliding body is affected greatly by the rainfall intensity and pore-water pressure and the pore-water pressure in the crack is positive for the beginning of the plate-shaped sliding bodies, and an optimization monitoring method for this type of landslide was proposed. Therefore, this paper has theoretical and practical significance for the intensive study of translational landslides in this area.

Snow gliding and glide snow avalanches: recent outcomes from two experimental test sites in Aosta Valley (NW Italian Alps)

Wed, 05/22/2019 - 15:46
Snow gliding and glide snow avalanches: recent outcomes from two experimental test sites in Aosta Valley (NW Italian Alps)
Margherita Maggioni, Danilo Godone, Barbara Frigo, and Michele Freppaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-114,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)

Snow gliding and glide snow avalanches are gaining importance among scientists as climate change might induce conditions favourable to those phenomena. Our aim is to analyse such processes with a particular focus on the potential driving factors associated to the soil conditions. We equipped two experimental test sites in Aosta Valley Region (NW-Italy) with glide-snow shoes, temperature and volumetric liquid water content (VLWC) sensors in the soil and in the basal snowpack layer; snow and weather parameters were also collected by automatic weather stations and in manual snow measuring sites. In the two monitoring seasons 2013–14 and 2014–15 we registered 9 glide snow avalanches: 2 cold and 7 warm-temperature events, which were characterized by different snow and soil parameters. In the only warm glide snow avalanche event, which presented a continuous gliding before, the daily glide rate showed a significant exponential relationship with the soil VLWC. We also found, though without a general trend, that gliding and non-gliding periods (either considering warm and cold periods separately or together) were characterized by significantly different predisposing factors. This study contributes to assess the importance of soil VLWC, which seems to be one of the most important driving factors for gliding processes. Therefore, it supports the need, already suggested by other scientists, of analysing such processes with an interdisciplinary approach which integrates snow and soil sciences.

A methodology based on numerical models for enhancing the resilience to flooding induced by levee breaches in lowland areas

Wed, 05/22/2019 - 15:46
A methodology based on numerical models for enhancing the resilience to flooding induced by levee breaches in lowland areas
Alessia Ferrari, Susanna Dazzi, Renato Vacondio, and Paolo Mignosa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-132,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 2 comments)
With the aim of improving resilience to flooding, this paper presents a methodology to create a wide database of hypothetical levee-breach scenarios obtained from 2D numerical modelling. The results can support civil protection activities during emergency planning and management, increasing preparedness against floods. The methodology is applicable to any lowland area protected by river levees. An example of the outcome concerning a pilot area in Northern Italy is here presented.

Atmospheric circulation changes and their impact on extreme sea levels around Australia

Tue, 05/21/2019 - 14:16
Atmospheric circulation changes and their impact on extreme sea levels around Australia
Frank Colberg, Kathleen L. McInnes, Julian O'Grady, and Ron Hoeke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1067-1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1067-2019, 2019
This study investigates coastal sea level variability and extremes around Australia, taking into account historical conditions and future atmospheric changes. Modelling suggests changes in future extreme sea levels may occur. A southward movement of the subtropical ridge leads to reduced sea level extremes in many areas, while changes over the Gulf of Carpentaria are largest and positive during austral summer in two of four simulations, likely associated with changes in the northwest monsoon.

First steps towards an All-European Indoor Radon Map

Mon, 05/20/2019 - 17:27
First steps towards an All-European Indoor Radon Map
Javier Elío, Giorgia Cinelli, Peter Bossew, José Luis Gutiérrez-Villanueva, Tore Tollefsen, Marc De Cort, Alessio Nogarotto, and Roberto Braga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-102,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
A hypothetical All-European Indoor Radon Map has been developed using summary statistics estimated from 1.2 million indoor radon samples. In this study we have used the arithmetic mean (AM) over grid cells of 10 km × 10 km to predict a mean indoor radon concentration at ground floor level in the grid cells where no or few data are available (N < 30). Four interpolation techniques have been tested: inverse distance weighted (IDW); ordinary kriging (OK); collocated cokriging with uranium concentration as secondary variable (CoCK); and regression kriging with topsoil geochemistry and bedrock geology as secondary variables (RK). Cross-validation exercises have been carried out to assess the uncertainties associated with each method. Of the four methods tested, RK has proved to be the best one for predicting mean indoor radon concentrations, and by combining the RK predictions with the AM of the grids with 30 or more measurements, an All-European Indoor Radon Map has been produced. This map represents the first step towards a European radon exposure, and further on a radon dose map.

Quantification of climate change impact on dam failure risk under hydrological scenarios: a case study from a Spanish dam

Mon, 05/20/2019 - 17:19
Quantification of climate change impact on dam failure risk under hydrological scenarios: a case study from a Spanish dam
Javier Fluixá-Sanmartín, Adrián Morales-Torres, Ignacio Escuder-Bueno, and Javier Paredes-Arquiola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-141,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Climate change is likely to affect the different factors driving dam failure risks. This article analyses the impact of climate change on the safety of a Spanish dam. Results show a progressive deterioration of the dam failure risk, mainly due to an alteration of the hydrological regime. The approach followed in this paper can serve as a useful guidebook for dam owners and dam safety practitioners in the analysis of other study cases.

Failure modes of loose landslide deposits in 2008 Wenchuan earthquake area in China

Mon, 05/20/2019 - 14:16
Failure modes of loose landslide deposits in 2008 Wenchuan earthquake area in China
Jianjun Gan and Yi Xia Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-25,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This paper summarizes and classifies the accumulated landslide of Wenchuan earthquake disaster, and puts forward a classification method that takes into account the topography, movement speed, and material, which is helpful to the prevention and control of similar geological disasters in strong earthquake areas.

Contrasting large fire activity in the French Mediterranean

Thu, 05/16/2019 - 19:02
Contrasting large fire activity in the French Mediterranean
Anne Ganteaume and Renaud Barbero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1055-1066, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1055-2019, 2019
Long-term georeferenced time series showed spatiotemporal variations in large fires (LF ≥ 100 ha) throughout the French Mediterranean with 21 % of the total LF burned area occurring on surface previously burned. The region was impacted up to five to six times by recurrent LFs, the east experiencing fewer but larger LFs despite fire weather conditions decreasing eastwards. The efficiency of fire management has improved but LF outbreaks during extreme weather conditions remain a major concern.

Stochastic generation of spatially coherent river discharge peaks for continental event-based flood risk assessment

Thu, 05/16/2019 - 17:27
Stochastic generation of spatially coherent river discharge peaks for continental event-based flood risk assessment
Dirk Diederen, Ye Liu, Ben Gouldby, Ferdinand Diermanse, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1041-1053, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1041-2019, 2019
Floods affect many communities and cause a large amount of damage worldwide. Since we choose to live in natural flood plains and are unable to prevent all floods, a system of insurance and reinsurance was set up. For these institutes to not fail, estimates are required of the frequency of large-scale flood events. We explore a new method to obtain a large catalogue of synthetic, spatially coherent, large-scale river discharge events, using a recent (gridded) European discharge data set.

Synoptic-scale conditions and convection-resolving hindcast experiments of a cold-season derecho on 3 January 2014 in western Europe

Wed, 05/15/2019 - 19:02
Synoptic-scale conditions and convection-resolving hindcast experiments of a cold-season derecho on 3 January 2014 in western Europe
Luca Mathias, Patrick Ludwig, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1023-1040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1023-2019, 2019
Convective systems producing severe winds occasionally affect Europe during wintertime and the majority of these storms develop along well-defined cold fronts of extratropical cyclones. However, on 3 January 2014, a storm formed in a postfrontal air mass over western Europe. This study analyses the prevailing environmental conditions and the predictability of this storm. Our results reveal the difficulty of forecasting cold-season convective storms when they are not associated with a cold front.

Environmental controls on surf zone injuries on high-energy beaches

Mon, 05/13/2019 - 19:02
Environmental controls on surf zone injuries on high-energy beaches
Bruno Castelle, Tim Scott, Rob Brander, Jak McCarroll, Arthur Robinet, Eric Tellier, Elias de Korte, Bruno Simonnet, and Louis-Rachid Salmi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-96,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
For the first time we explore the influence of environmental conditions (wave and weather conditions, tide elevation, beach morphology) on surf zone injuries (e.g. drowning incident, spine injuries). Serious injuries are caused by the two primary hazards found along high-energy surf beaches: shore-break waves and narrow seaward flowing rip currents, which have different environmental controls. Results have strong implications towards future beach safety management and education of beach users.

Landslide susceptibility mapping by using a geographic information system (GIS) along the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (Karakoram Highway), Pakistan

Tue, 05/07/2019 - 19:02
Landslide susceptibility mapping by using a geographic information system (GIS) along the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (Karakoram Highway), Pakistan
Sajid Ali, Peter Biermanns, Rashid Haider, and Klaus Reicherter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 999-1022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-999-2019, 2019
The Karakoram Highway (KKH) is an important physical connection between Pakistan and China. Landslides have been a major threat to its stability since its construction. After the announcement of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), KKH has had more importance. Geoscientists from research institutions in both countries are assessing landslide hazard and risk along the highway. In a PhD project, this paper will be followed by a detailed analysis of mass movements along the highway.

Incorporating multi-source remote sensing in the detection of earthquake-damaged buildings based on logistic regression modelling

Mon, 05/06/2019 - 19:02
Incorporating multi-source remote sensing in the detection of earthquake-damaged buildings based on logistic regression modelling
Qiang Li, Jingfa Zhang, and Hongbo Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-20,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
The work represents one of the first attempt to extract damaged buildings through the fusion of three types of data with different features at the scale of object. It addresses multivariate regression methodologies, and discusses the potentials of different features for application in this field of damage detection.

Loss assessment of building and contents damage from the potential earthquake risk in Seoul, South Korea

Fri, 05/03/2019 - 19:02
Loss assessment of building and contents damage from the potential earthquake risk in Seoul, South Korea
Wooil Choi, Jae-Woo Park, and Jinhwan Kim
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 985-997, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-985-2019, 2019
In recent years, earthquakes have been occurring in Korea where no earthquakes occurred in the past. Appropriate response planning using simulations in countries with less earthquake risk management experiences are needed. It is especially important to evaluate earthquake damage financially. This paper is a model study for urban earthquake risk management and meaningfully generates basic data for a cost benefit analysis of a disaster prevention plan by financial evaluation of earthquake damage.

Water-level attenuation in global-scale assessments of exposure to coastal flooding: a sensitivity analysis

Fri, 05/03/2019 - 19:02
Water-level attenuation in global-scale assessments of exposure to coastal flooding: a sensitivity analysis
Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Mark Schuerch, Claudia Wolff, Tom Spencer, Jan L. Merkens, Jochen Hinkel, Daniel Lincke, Sally Brown, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 973-984, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-973-2019, 2019
This paper evaluates the effect of surge water level reduction due to land surface characteristics when assessing flood impacts at global scales. Our results show that uncertainties due to not accounting for water attenuation are of similar magnitude to the uncertainties regarding the total amount of sea-level rise expected by 2100, thus highlighting the need for better understanding of the spatial and temporal variation of water levels across floodplains.

Summertime precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11° ensemble at an hourly resolution

Thu, 05/02/2019 - 19:02
Summertime precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11° ensemble at an hourly resolution
Peter Berg, Ole B. Christensen, Katharina Klehmet, Geert Lenderink, Jonas Olsson, Claas Teichmann, and Wei Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 957-971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-957-2019, 2019
A state-of-the-art regional climate model ensemble for Europe is investigated for extreme precipitation intensities. The models poorly reproduce short duration events of less than a few hours. Further, there is poor connection to some known hotspots for extreme cases. The model performance is much improved at 12 h durations. Projected future increases scale with seasonal mean temperature change, within a range from a few percent to over 10 percent per degree Celsius.

Satellite Hydrology Observations as Operational Indicators of Forecasted Fire Danger across the Contiguous United States

Thu, 05/02/2019 - 19:02
Satellite Hydrology Observations as Operational Indicators of Forecasted Fire Danger across the Contiguous United States
Alireza Farahmand, E. Natasha Stavros, John T. Reager, Ali Behrangi, James Randerson, and Brad Quayle
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-129,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Wildfires result in billions of dollars of losses each year. Most wildfire predictions have a 10-day lead time prediction of wildfires. This study introduces a framework for 1-month lead time prediction of wildfires based on Vapor Pressure Deficit and Surface Soil Moisture in the US. The results show that the model can successfully predict burned area with relatively small margins of error. This is especially important for the operational wildfire management such as national resource allocation.

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