Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

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Combined list of the recent articles of the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences and the recent discussion forum Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions
Updated: 2 weeks 3 days ago

Dynamic path dependent landslide susceptibility modelling

Mon, 07/08/2019 - 17:32
Dynamic path dependent landslide susceptibility modelling
Jalal Samia, Arnaud Temme, Arnold Bregt, Jakob Wallinga, Fausto Guzzetti, and Francesca Ardizzone
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-125,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
For Collazzone study area in Italy, we quantified how much landslides follow others using Ripley's K, finding that susceptibility is increased within 60 m and 17 years from a previous landslide. We then calculated the increased susceptibility for every pixel and for the 17-timeslice landslide inventory. We used these as additional explanatory variables in susceptibility modelling. Model performance increased substantially with this landslide history component included.

How awareness and confidence affect flood-risk precautionary behavior of Greek citizens: the role of perceptual and emotional mechanisms

Fri, 07/05/2019 - 17:50
How awareness and confidence affect flood-risk precautionary behavior of Greek citizens: the role of perceptual and emotional mechanisms
Katerina Papagiannaki, Vassiliki Kotroni, Kostas Lagouvardos, and Giorgos Papagiannakis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1329-1346, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1329-2019, 2019
The aim of this work is to advance knowledge on the mechanisms of flood precautionary behavior in an area not adequately addressed. Risk managers may identify gaps in risk communication, advance their understanding of citizens' precautionary behaviors, and adjust their strategies to improve flood resilience. The survey was launched by meteo.gr. This work is part of the study of weather-related hazards and societal impact conducted by IERSD/NOA.

Flood risk in a range of spatial perspectives – from global to local scales

Fri, 07/05/2019 - 09:25
Flood risk in a range of spatial perspectives – from global to local scales
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Buda Su, Yanjun Wang, Guojie Wang, Guofu Wang, Jinlong Huang, and Tong Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1319-1328, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1319-2019, 2019
Considering flood risk composed of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability from global to local scales, this paper reviews and presents increasing observed flood losses and projections of flood hazard and losses. We acknowledge existence of multiple driving factors and of considerable uncertainty, in particular with regards to projections for the future. Finally, this paper analyses options for flood risk reduction from a global framework to regional and local scales.

Difficulties in explaining complex issues with maps. Evaluating seismic hazard communication – the Swiss case

Thu, 07/04/2019 - 18:59
Difficulties in explaining complex issues with maps. Evaluating seismic hazard communication – the Swiss case
Michèle Marti, Michael Stauffacher, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-112,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Earthquakes are the deadliest natural hazards. Providing information can save lives. Maps are an established way to illustrate natural hazard and regularly used to communicate with non-experts. However, there is evidence that they are frequently misconceived. Using a real case, we confirm in our study that understanding seismic hazard information is indeed very challenging. We suggest scrutinizing current natural hazard communication strategies and empirically testing new products.

Vulnerability analysis in Complex Networks under a Flood Risk Reduction point of view

Thu, 07/04/2019 - 09:25
Vulnerability analysis in Complex Networks under a Flood Risk Reduction point of view
Leonardo B. L. Santos, Aurelienne A. S. Jorge, Luciana R. Londe, Regina T. Reani, Roberta B. Bacelar, and Igor M. Sokolov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-199,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
The measurement and mapping of transportation network vulnerability constitute subjects of global interest. During a flood, some elements of a transportation network can be reached, causing damages directly (to people) and indirect damages (to services) with great economic impacts. The Complex Networks approach may offer a valuable perspective considering the topological vulnerability. Our results can represent an important tool for stakeholders from the transportation sector.

Radar-derived convective storms' climatology for the Prut River basin: 2003–2017

Wed, 07/03/2019 - 18:59
Radar-derived convective storms' climatology for the Prut River basin: 2003–2017
Sorin Burcea, Roxana Cică, and Roxana Bojariu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1305-1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1305-2019, 2019
The mapping of convective storms in the area of the transboundary Prut River basin was developed using a 15-year radar dataset (2003–2017). The analysis is based on data sampled in successive 6 min scans of the atmosphere, to detect and track the convective storms. The results highlighted a yearly, monthly, and daily variation of convective activity but also spatial distribution patterns. The study of atmospheric convection is important in assessing the risks associated with extreme weather.

Evaluation of Global Fire Weather Database re-analysis and short-term forecast products

Tue, 07/02/2019 - 18:59
Evaluation of Global Fire Weather Database re-analysis and short-term forecast products
Robert D. Field
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-197,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This paper compares fire weather indices calculated from the NASA MERRA2 reanlaysis to those calculated from a global network of weather stations, finding that, globally, biases in reanalysis fire weather are influenced firstly by temperature and relative humidity, and, in certain regions by precipitation biases. Fire weather forecasts using short-term NASA GEOS-5 weather forecasts are skillful two days ahead of time. This skill decreases more quickly with longer lead times at high latitudes.

Modelling Global Tropical Cyclone Wind Footprints

Tue, 07/02/2019 - 18:59
Modelling Global Tropical Cyclone Wind Footprints
James M. Done, Ming Ge, Greg J. Holland, Ioana Dima-West, Samuel Phibbs, Geoffrey R. Saville, and Yuqing Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-207,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Assessing Tropical Cyclone (TC) wind risk is challenging due to a lack of historical TC wind data. This paper presents a novel approach to simulating landfalling TC winds anywhere on Earth. It captures local features such as high winds over coastal hills and lulls over rough terrain. A dataset of over seven hundred global historical wind footprints has been generated to provide new views of historical events. This dataset can be used to advance our understanding of overland TC wind risk.

The influence of land use and land cover change on landslide susceptibility: A case study in Zhushan Town, Xuanen County (Hubei, China)

Tue, 07/02/2019 - 18:59
The influence of land use and land cover change on landslide susceptibility: A case study in Zhushan Town, Xuanen County (Hubei, China)
Lixia Chen, Zizheng Guo, Kunlong Yin, Dhruba Pikha Shrestha, and Shikuan Jin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-203,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
The study aims at evaluating the influence of land use and land cover change on landslide susceptibility at regional scale, based on the application of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) technologies. Specific objective is to answer the question: which land cover/land use change poses the highest risk so that mitigation measures can be implemented in time?

Large eddy simulation modeling of tsunami-like solitary wave processes over fringing reefs

Fri, 06/28/2019 - 18:59
Large eddy simulation modeling of tsunami-like solitary wave processes over fringing reefs
Yu Yao, Tiancheng He, Zhengzhi Deng, Long Chen, and Huiqun Guo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1281-1295, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1281-2019, 2019
A tsunami can be destructive when it inundates the coastal areas. In recent years, the positive role of coral reefs in mitigating tsunami waves has aroused the attention of scholars. We therefore investigate the tsunami wave interaction with a reef profile via a sophisticated numerical model. We find that the low-lying coastal areas, fringed by coral reefs with milder back-reef beaches and smaller lagoons, are less susceptible to coastal inundation during a tsunami event.

Speeding up tsunami forecasting to boost tsunami warning in Chile

Fri, 06/28/2019 - 13:52
Speeding up tsunami forecasting to boost tsunami warning in Chile
Mauricio Fuentes, Sebastian Arriola, Sebastian Riquelme, and Bertrand Delouis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1297-1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1297-2019, 2019
This work provides a simple and fast approach to improve tsunami warning systems in the near field. A color-coded warning map is produced almost instantaneously after the seismic information is received. Time is crucial in the near-field case; for instance, the tsunami waves generated in the Chilean trench arrive at the coastline in around 10–15 min. Seismic information takes 3–5 min to be ready; thus we produce a first warning map 6 min after the earthquake origin time.

Towards an Automatic Early Warning System of Flood Hazards based on Precipitation Forecast: The case of the Miño River (NW Spain)

Fri, 06/28/2019 - 13:52
Towards an Automatic Early Warning System of Flood Hazards based on Precipitation Forecast: The case of the Miño River (NW Spain)
José González-Cao, Orlando García-Feal, Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, José Manuel Domínguez-Alonso, and Moncho Gómez-Gesteira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-200,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
An Early Warning System (EWS) for flood prediction was developed in the upper reach of the Miño River and the city of Lugo (NW Spain). This EWS can provide accurate results in less than one hour, for a forecast horizon of 3 days, and report an alert situation to decision-makers in order to mitigate the consequences of floods. In addition, this EWS can be easily adapted for any area of the world since the required input data and software are freely available.

Numerical simulations of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami deposits' thicknesses and emplacements

Thu, 06/27/2019 - 13:52
Numerical simulations of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami deposits' thicknesses and emplacements
Syamsidik, Musa Al'ala, Hermann M. Fritz, Mirza Fahmi, and Teuku Mudi Hafli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1265-1280, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1265-2019, 2019
The use of numerical simulations to study tsunami-induced sediment transport was rare in Indonesia until the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. This study aims to couple two hydrodynamic numerical models in order to reproduce tsunami-induced sediment deposits, i.e., their locations and thicknesses. Numerical simulations were performed using the Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami (COMCOT) model and Delft3D. Lhoong, in the Aceh Besar District, Indonesia, was selected as the study site for this research.

Assessing the impact of road segment obstruction on accessibility of critical services in case of a hazard

Wed, 06/26/2019 - 13:52
Assessing the impact of road segment obstruction on accessibility of critical services in case of a hazard
Sophie Mossoux, Matthieu Kervyn, and Frank Canters
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1251-1263, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1251-2019, 2019
Hazard maps provide information about the probability of given areas of being affected by hazards. So far studies combining hazard mapping with accessibility to services are few. In this study, we propose two new metrics defining the importance of each road segment in the accessibility of services, taking into account the probability of being affected by a hazard. These metrics may help support discussions about the development of new infrastructure or road segments and evacuation procedures.

Processes culminating in the 2015 phreatic explosion at Lascar volcano, Chile, monitored by multiparametric data

Tue, 06/25/2019 - 13:52
Processes culminating in the 2015 phreatic explosion at Lascar volcano, Chile, monitored by multiparametric data
Ayleen Gaete, Thomas R. Walter, Stefan Bredemeyer, Martin Zimmer, Christian Kujawa, Luis Franco, Juan San Martin, and Claudia Bucarey Parra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-189,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Phreatic eruptions often occur without signs of enhanced volcanic unrest, eluding from detection and posing in threat to people in the vicinity. We analyzed data of the 2015 phreatic eruption of Lascar volcano, Chile to retrospectively identify a rainfall as the trigger mechanism, and potential signs heralding this minor eruption. We showed that it is possible to detect precursory activity of phreatic eruptions even if deep-seated activity, by deploying appropriate multiparametric monitoring.

A remote-sensing-based intensity–duration threshold, Faifa Mountains, Saudi Arabia

Thu, 06/20/2019 - 13:52
A remote-sensing-based intensity–duration threshold, Faifa Mountains, Saudi Arabia
Sita Karki, Mohamed Sultan, Saleh Alsefry, Hassan Alharbi, Mustafa Kemal Emil, Racha Elkadiri, and Emad Abu Alfadail
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1235-1249, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1235-2019, 2019
We constructed an intensity–duration thresholding technique required to develop an early-warning system for the Faifa Mountains in Saudi Arabia. The study uses radar imagery, satellite-derived rainfall data, archival imagery, and limited field data. The study presents a significant development in the application of radar for hydrogeological and geomorphological studies as it provides better resilience towards nonoptical conditions.

Reciprocal Green's Functions and the Quick Forecast of Submarine Landslide Tsunami

Thu, 06/20/2019 - 13:52
Reciprocal Green's Functions and the Quick Forecast of Submarine Landslide Tsunami
Guan-Yu Chen, Chin-Chih Liu, Janaka J. Wijetunge, and Yi-Fung Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-124,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Tsunamis generated by submarine landslide was considered rare. However, more and more studies indicate many tsunami events can be attributed to submarine landslides. At the same time, knowledge and experience has been accumulated in simulating this kind of tsunami. We believe it is time to think about the forecast of this kind of tsunami, and the approach we use is very helpful in building a feasible forecast system for submarine landslide tsunami.

Nonlinear deformation and run-up of single tsunami waves of positive polarity: numerical simulations and analytical predictions

Thu, 06/20/2019 - 13:52
Nonlinear deformation and run-up of single tsunami waves of positive polarity: numerical simulations and analytical predictions
Ahmed A. Abdalazeez, Ira Didenkulova, and Denys Dutykh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-182,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This work is based on the authors' idea that asymmetry of the tsunami wave gained during its propagation in the ocean should also influence its run-up height on the slope. This was previously analytically shown by the authors for sinusoidal waves. In the given manuscript, this idea is elaborated for single waves using both semi-analytical and numerical methods. The corresponding formula for maximum run-up height which takes into account the wave front steepness is proposed.

The impact of drought on the productivity of two rainfed crops in Spain

Wed, 06/19/2019 - 13:52
The impact of drought on the productivity of two rainfed crops in Spain
Marina Peña-Gallardo, Sergio Martín Vicente-Serrano, Fernando Domínguez-Castro, and Santiago Beguería
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1215-1234, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1215-2019, 2019
Drought events are of great importance in most Mediterranean climate regions, and the impacts caused on rainfed crops are particularly evident. In this study the impacts of drought on two representative rainfed crops in Spain (wheat and barley) are assessed by testing various worldwide drought indices and two datasets at different spatial resolution.

Machine Learning Analysis of Lifeguard Flag Decisions and Recorded Rescues

Tue, 06/18/2019 - 13:52
Machine Learning Analysis of Lifeguard Flag Decisions and Recorded Rescues
Chris Houser, Jacob Lehner, and Phil Wernette
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-142,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
On many beaches, lifeguards set out flags to warn beach users of the surf and rip hazard based on the regional surf forecast and careful observation. There is a potential that the chosen flag does not accurately reflect the potential risk. Results of a machine learning analysis suggest that the greatest number of rescues occurred on days when the lifeguard flew a more cautious flag than the model predicted. It is argued that that beach users may be discounting lifeguard warnings.

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