Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

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Combined list of the recent articles of the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences and the recent discussion forum Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions
Updated: 1 day 2 hours ago

Accounting for Non-stationarity in Extreme Snow Loads: a Comparison with Building Standards in the French Alps

Fri, 03/27/2020 - 14:03
Accounting for Non-stationarity in Extreme Snow Loads: a Comparison with Building Standards in the French Alps
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-81,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
To minimize the risk of structure collapse due to extreme snow loads, structure standards rely on 50-year return levels of ground snow load (GSL), i.e. levels exceeded once every 50 years in average, that do not account for climate change. We study GSL data in the French Alps massifs from 1959 and 2019 and find that these 50-year return levels are decreasing with time between 900 m and 4800 m of altitude, but still exceed return levels of structure standards for half of the massifs at 1800 m.

Downsizing parameter ensembles for simulations of extreme floods

Thu, 03/26/2020 - 19:09
Downsizing parameter ensembles for simulations of extreme floods
Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Bettina Schaefli, and Jan Seibert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-79,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This work proposes methods for reducing the computational requirements of hydrological simulations for the estimation of very rare floods that occur on average less than once in 1000 years. These methods enable the analysis of long time streamflow series (here for example 10 000 years) at low computational costs with representing modelling uncertainty. They are to be used within continuous simulation frameworks with long input time series and are readily transferable to similar simulation tasks.

Role of friction terms in two-dimensional modelling of dense snow avalanches

Thu, 03/26/2020 - 19:09
Role of friction terms in two-dimensional modelling of dense snow avalanches
Marcos Sanz-Ramos, Ernest Bladé, Pere Oller, Carlos A. Andrade, and Glòria Furdada
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-423,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Dense snow avalanche propagation and deposition can be modelled using similar equations than for water motion changing the friction terms. Due to that, the avalanche tends to have a fluid-like behaviour. Thus, these equations must be properly balanced in order to avoid this behaviour, also including nonhydrostatic pressure and specific numerical techniques to stop the avalanche without any nonphysically based assumption. These improvements could help in a better snow avalanche modelling.

Macrozonation of Seismic Transient Ground Displacement and Permanent Ground Deformation of Iran

Thu, 03/26/2020 - 14:03
Macrozonation of Seismic Transient Ground Displacement and Permanent Ground Deformation of Iran
Saeideh Farahani, Behrouz Behnam, and Ahmad Tahershamsi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-48,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Iran is located on the Alpide earthquake belt, in the active collision zone between the Eurasian and Arabian plates. Also, according to the rapid demands for new lifelines, risk assessment should be performed to reduce the probable damage in advance. In this study, a precise GIS-based map is proposed employing the HAZUS methodology.

CCAF-DB: the Caribbean and Central American active fault database

Wed, 03/25/2020 - 19:09
CCAF-DB: the Caribbean and Central American active fault database
Richard Styron, Julio García-Pelaez, and Marco Pagani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 831–857, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-831-2020, 2020
The Caribbean and Central American region is both tectonically active and densely populated, leading to a large population that is exposed to earthquake hazards. Until now, no comprehensive fault data covering the region have been available. We present a new public fault database for Central America and the Caribbean that synthesizes published studies with new mapping from remote sensing to provide fault sources for the CCARA seismic hazard and risk analysis project and to aid future research.

Coastal Impacts of Storm Gloria (January 2020) over the Northwestern Mediterranean

Wed, 03/25/2020 - 15:58
Coastal Impacts of Storm Gloria (January 2020) over the Northwestern Mediterranean
Angel Amores, Marta Marcos, Diego S. Carrió, and Lluís Gómez-Pujol
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-75,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Storm Gloria hit the Mediterranean Spanish coastlines between January 20th–23rd 2020 causing severe damages such as flooding the Ebro river Delta. We evaluate its coastal impacts with a numerical simulation of the wind waves and the accumulated ocean water along the coastline (storm surge). The storm surge, that reached values up to 1 m, was mainly driven by the wind, that also generated wind-waves up to 8 m height. We also determine the extent of the Ebro Delta flooded by marine waters.

Towards a reliable assessment of climate change impact on droughts in Southern Italy: Evaluation of EURO-CORDEX historical simulations by high-quality observational datasets

Wed, 03/25/2020 - 15:58
Towards a reliable assessment of climate change impact on droughts in Southern Italy: Evaluation of EURO-CORDEX historical simulations by high-quality observational datasets
David J. Peres, Alfonso Senatore, Paola Nanni, Antonino Cancelliere, Giuseppe Mendicino, and Brunella Bonaccorso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-78,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are commonly used for high-resolution assessment of climate change impacts. This research assesses the reliability of several RCMs in a Mediterranean area (southern Italy), comparing historic climate and drought characteristics with high-density and high-quality ground-based observational datasets. We propose a general methodology and identify the more skilful models, able to reproduce precipitation and temperature variability, as well as drought characteristics.

Examining the sustainability and development challenge in agricultural-forest frontiers of the Amazon Basin through the eyes of locals

Tue, 03/24/2020 - 19:19
Examining the sustainability and development challenge in agricultural-forest frontiers of the Amazon Basin through the eyes of locals
Irene Blanco-Gutiérrez, Rhys Manners, Consuelo Varela-Ortega, Ana M. Tarquis, Lucieta G. Martorano, and Marisol Toledo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 797–813, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-797-2020, 2020
The Amazon rainforest is being destroyed, resulting in negative ecological and social impacts. We explore how stakeholders perceive the causes of the Amazon's degradation in Bolivia and Brazil and develop a series of scenarios to help strengthen the balance between human development and environmental conservation. The results suggest that the application of governance and well-integrated technical and social reform strategies encourages positive regional changes even under climate change.

Probabilistic landslide susceptibility analysis in tropical mountainous terrain using the physically based r.slope.stability model

Tue, 03/24/2020 - 19:19
Probabilistic landslide susceptibility analysis in tropical mountainous terrain using the physically based r.slope.stability model
Johnnatan Palacio Cordoba, Martin Mergili, and Edier Aristizábal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 815–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-815-2020, 2020
Landslides triggered by rainfall are very common phenomena in complex tropical environments such as the Colombian Andes. In this work, we perform probabilistic analyses with r.slope.stability for landslide susceptibility analysis. We test the model in the La Arenosa catchment, northern Colombian Andes. The results are compared to those yielded with the corresponding deterministic analyses and with other physically based models applied in the same catchment.

Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme storm-tide and skew-surge events around the coastline of New Zealand

Tue, 03/24/2020 - 19:19
Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme storm-tide and skew-surge events around the coastline of New Zealand
Scott A. Stephens, Robert G. Bell, and Ivan D. Haigh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 783–796, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-783-2020, 2020
Extreme sea levels in New Zealand occur in nearby places and at similar times, which means that flooding impacts and losses may be linked in space and time. The most extreme sea levels depend on storms coinciding with very high tides because storm surges are relatively small in New Zealand. The type of storm weather system influences where the extreme sea levels occur, and the annual timing is influenced by the low-amplitude (~10 cm) annual sea-level cycle.

Reciprocal Green's functions and the quick forecast of submarine landslide tsunamis

Mon, 03/23/2020 - 19:54
Reciprocal Green's functions and the quick forecast of submarine landslide tsunamis
Guan-Yu Chen, Chin-Chih Liu, Janaka J. Wijetunge, and Yi-Fung Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 771–781, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-771-2020, 2020
Tsunamis generated by submarine landslides were considered rare. However, more and more studies indicate that many tsunami events can be attributed to submarine landslides. At the same time, knowledge and experience have been accumulated in simulating this kind of tsunami. We believe it is time to think about the forecast of this kind of tsunami, and the approach we use is very helpful in building a feasible forecast system for submarine landslide tsunamis.

Real-time probabilistic seismic hazard assessment based on seismicity anomaly

Mon, 03/23/2020 - 19:54
Real-time probabilistic seismic hazard assessment based on seismicity anomaly
Yu-Sheng Sun, Hsien-Chi Li, Ling-Yun Chang, Zheng-Kai Ye, and Chien-Chih Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 743–753, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-743-2020, 2020
Real-time probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) was developed in consideration of its practicability for daily life and the rate of seismic activity with time. We selected the 2016 Meinong (ML 6.6) and the 2018 Hualien (ML 6.2) earthquakes in Taiwan as examples. The seismic intensity forecasting maps produced by the real-time PSHA facilitated the forecast of the maximum expected seismic intensity for the following 90 d. Compared with real data the maps showed considerable effectiveness.

Space-time clustering of climate extremes amplify global climate impacts, leading to fat-tailed risk

Mon, 03/23/2020 - 19:54
Space-time clustering of climate extremes amplify global climate impacts, leading to fat-tailed risk
Luc Bonnafous and Upmanu Lall
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-405,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Extreme climate events can cause human and economic catastrophe at the global scale. For specific sectors, such as humanitarian aid or insurance, being able to understand how (i.e. with which frequency and intensity) these events can occur simultaneously at different locations or several times in a given amount of time and hit critical assets is all-important to design contingency plans. Here we develop and indicator to study co-occurence in space and time of wet and dry extremes.

Ensemble flood simulation for a small dam catchment in Japan using nonhydrostatic model rainfalls – Part 2: Flood forecasting using 1600-member 4D-EnVar-predicted rainfalls

Mon, 03/23/2020 - 19:19
Ensemble flood simulation for a small dam catchment in Japan using nonhydrostatic model rainfalls – Part 2: Flood forecasting using 1600-member 4D-EnVar-predicted rainfalls
Kenichiro Kobayashi, Le Duc, Apip, Tsutao Oizumi, and Kazuo Saito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 755–770, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-755-2020, 2020
The feasibility of flood forecasting with 1600 rainfall forecasts was investigated. The rainfall forecasts were obtained from an advanced data assimilation system. The high probability of flood occurrence was predicted, which is not possible by the single deterministic forecast. The necessity of emergency flood operation was shown with a long leading time. This suggests that it is worth investing in increasing numbers of meteorological ensembles to improve flood forecasting.

Lessons learnt from analysing the causes of casualties in the Sichuan Changning Ms 6.0 earthquake

Thu, 03/19/2020 - 17:06
Lessons learnt from analysing the causes of casualties in the Sichuan Changning Ms 6.0 earthquake
Wei Wang, Hong Chen, Xiaolin Jiang, Lisiwen Ma, and Minhao Qu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-64,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This paper summarizes the Ms 6.0 earthquake disaster that occurred in Changning, Sichuan Province, China, on 17 June 2019. Additionally, a description of the disaster emergency response is provided. As determined by on-site investigation and analysis, the direct causes of earthquake casualties are summarized. Responding to the causes of these four casualty types, we summarize 4 lessons.

Trivariate copula to design coastal structures

Thu, 03/19/2020 - 17:06
Trivariate copula to design coastal structures
Olivier Orcel, Philippe Sergent, and François Ropert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-80,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Coastal structures subjected to the actions of waves must be redesigned due to rising sea levels. Their design requires an estimate of the long return period of wave height, wave period, storm surge and more specifically their joint exceedance probabilities. We confirm that the best results are obtained by first aggregating the most correlated variables that are wave height and wave period. Nevertheless, the choice of method of aggregation is much less important than the choice of the copula.

A model for interpreting the deformation mechanism of reservoir landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China

Wed, 03/18/2020 - 17:06
A model for interpreting the deformation mechanism of reservoir landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China
Zongxing Zou, Huiming Tang, Robert E. Criss, Xinli Hu, Chengren Xiong, Qiong Wu, and Yi Yuan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-432,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
The evolutionary trend of deforming landslides and feasible treatments for huge reservoir landslides needs further study. A geomechanical model is presented to elucidate the deformation mechanism of reservoir landslides. The deformation process of Shuping landslide is well interpreted by the geomechanical model. A successful engineering treatment is applied in treating the Shuping landslide, providing references for treating other huge landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.

Rapid flood risk screening model for compound flood events in Beira, Mozambique

Wed, 03/18/2020 - 17:06
Rapid flood risk screening model for compound flood events in Beira, Mozambique
Erik C. van Berchum, Mathijs van Ledden, Jos S. Timmermans, Jan H. Kwakkel, and Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-56,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Flood risk management is especially complicated in coastal cities. The complexity of multiple flood hazards in a rapidly changing urban environment leads to a situation with many different potential measures and future scenarios. This research demonstrates a new model, capable of quickly simulating flood impact and comparing many different strategies. This is applied to the city of Beira, where it was able to provide new insights into the local flood risk and potential strategies.

The assessment of earthquake-triggered landslides susceptibility with considering coseismic ground deformation

Mon, 03/16/2020 - 18:21
The assessment of earthquake-triggered landslides susceptibility with considering coseismic ground deformation
Yu Zhao, Zeng Huang, Zhenlei Wei, Jun Zheng, and Kazuo Konagai
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-63,2020
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
The distance to the surface rupture zone has been commonly regarded as an important influencing factor in the evaluation of earthquake-triggered landslides susceptibility. However, the obvious surface rupture zones usually do not occur in some buried-fault earthquakes cases, which mean lacking of the information about the distance to the surface rupture. In this study, a new influencing factor named coseismic ground deformation was added to remedy this shortcoming. The Mid-Niigata prefecture earthquake was regareded as the study case. In order to select a more suitable model for generating the landslides susceptibility map, three commonly used models named Logistic Regression (LR), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) were also conducted to assess the landslides susceptibility. The performances of these three models were evaluated with the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The calculated results showed the ANN model has the highest AUC (area under the curve) value of 0.82. As the earthquake triggered more landslides in the epicenter area, which makes it more prone to landslides in further earthquakes, the landslides susceptibility in the epicenter area was also further evaluated.

Three-dimensional numerical simulation of mud flow from a tailing dam failure across complex terrain

Mon, 03/16/2020 - 06:22
Three-dimensional numerical simulation of mud flow from a tailing dam failure across complex terrain
Dayu Yu, Liyu Tang, and Chongcheng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 727–741, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-727-2020, 2020
In recent years, dam-break accidents in tailing ponds have happened frequently, which has resulted in verified loss of life and ecological disaster. Simulation of a tailing dam accident in advance is useful for understanding the tailing flow characteristics and assessing the possible extension of the impact area. In this paper, a 3-D CFD approach was proposed for reasonably and quickly predicting the flow routing and impact area of mud flow from a dam failure across 3-D terrain.

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