Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

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Combined list of the recent articles of the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences and the recent discussion forum Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions
Updated: 2 weeks 3 days ago

Loss assessment of building and contents damage from the potential earthquake risk in Seoul, South Korea

Fri, 05/03/2019 - 19:02
Loss assessment of building and contents damage from the potential earthquake risk in Seoul, South Korea
Wooil Choi, Jae-Woo Park, and Jinhwan Kim
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 985-997, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-985-2019, 2019
In recent years, earthquakes have been occurring in Korea where no earthquakes occurred in the past. Appropriate response planning using simulations in countries with less earthquake risk management experiences are needed. It is especially important to evaluate earthquake damage financially. This paper is a model study for urban earthquake risk management and meaningfully generates basic data for a cost benefit analysis of a disaster prevention plan by financial evaluation of earthquake damage.

Water-level attenuation in global-scale assessments of exposure to coastal flooding: a sensitivity analysis

Fri, 05/03/2019 - 19:02
Water-level attenuation in global-scale assessments of exposure to coastal flooding: a sensitivity analysis
Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Mark Schuerch, Claudia Wolff, Tom Spencer, Jan L. Merkens, Jochen Hinkel, Daniel Lincke, Sally Brown, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 973-984, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-973-2019, 2019
This paper evaluates the effect of surge water level reduction due to land surface characteristics when assessing flood impacts at global scales. Our results show that uncertainties due to not accounting for water attenuation are of similar magnitude to the uncertainties regarding the total amount of sea-level rise expected by 2100, thus highlighting the need for better understanding of the spatial and temporal variation of water levels across floodplains.

Summertime precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11° ensemble at an hourly resolution

Thu, 05/02/2019 - 19:02
Summertime precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11° ensemble at an hourly resolution
Peter Berg, Ole B. Christensen, Katharina Klehmet, Geert Lenderink, Jonas Olsson, Claas Teichmann, and Wei Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 957-971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-957-2019, 2019
A state-of-the-art regional climate model ensemble for Europe is investigated for extreme precipitation intensities. The models poorly reproduce short duration events of less than a few hours. Further, there is poor connection to some known hotspots for extreme cases. The model performance is much improved at 12 h durations. Projected future increases scale with seasonal mean temperature change, within a range from a few percent to over 10 percent per degree Celsius.

Satellite Hydrology Observations as Operational Indicators of Forecasted Fire Danger across the Contiguous United States

Thu, 05/02/2019 - 19:02
Satellite Hydrology Observations as Operational Indicators of Forecasted Fire Danger across the Contiguous United States
Alireza Farahmand, E. Natasha Stavros, John T. Reager, Ali Behrangi, James Randerson, and Brad Quayle
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-129,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Wildfires result in billions of dollars of losses each year. Most wildfire predictions have a 10-day lead time prediction of wildfires. This study introduces a framework for 1-month lead time prediction of wildfires based on Vapor Pressure Deficit and Surface Soil Moisture in the US. The results show that the model can successfully predict burned area with relatively small margins of error. This is especially important for the operational wildfire management such as national resource allocation.

Assessment of potential seismic hazard for sensitive facilities by applying seismo-tectonic criteria: an example from the Levant region

Thu, 05/02/2019 - 15:18
Assessment of potential seismic hazard for sensitive facilities by applying seismo-tectonic criteria: an example from the Levant region
Matty Sharon, Amir Sagy, Ittai Kurzon, Shmuel Marco, and Marcelo Rosensaft
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-67,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
We present a methodology for mapping faults that constitute far-field (ground motion) and near-field (surface rupture) hazard to structures, particularly for vulnerable facilities. For categorising faults, the criteria is adjusted to local tectonic characteristics, combining data of geological maps, instrumental seismicity, geodesy and past earthquakes. Our results adhere to international standards of hazard assessment for nuclear power plants, and improves the regional tectonic understanding.

First reported case of Thunderstorm Asthma in Israel

Tue, 04/30/2019 - 16:12
First reported case of Thunderstorm Asthma in Israel
Yoav Yair, Yifat Yair, Baruch Rubin, Ronit Confino-Cohen, Yosef Rosman, Eduardo Shachar, and Menachem Rottem
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-137,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
During severe thunderstorms, cold outflows can eject pollen and dust particles from the surface, releasing allergens and causing Thunderstorm Asthma epidemics in sensitive populations. We report the first case in Israel on October 25th 2015. The ER admission records from three hospitals showed clear increase in patients with respiratory complaints. Such public-health events associated with thunderstorms will be affected by population growth, urbanization and climate change.

Nature-Based Solutions for hydro-meteorological risk reduction: A state-of-the-art review of the research area

Tue, 04/30/2019 - 16:12
Nature-Based Solutions for hydro-meteorological risk reduction: A state-of-the-art review of the research area
Laddaporn Ruangpan, Zoran Vojinovic, Silvana Di Sabatino, Laura Sandra Leo, Vittoria Capobianco, Amy M. P. Oen, Michael McClain, and Elena Lopez-Gunn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-128,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This article aims to provide a critical review of the literature and to indicate some directions for future research based on the current knowledge gaps in the area of Nature-Based Solutions for hydro-meteorological risk reduction. The review process started by analysing 1381 articles sourced from Scopus from 2007 onwards. The final full analysis was performed on 159 closely related articles.

Understanding Spatiotemporal Development of Human Settlement in Hurricane-prone Areas on U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts using Nighttime Remote Sensing

Tue, 04/30/2019 - 15:18
Understanding Spatiotemporal Development of Human Settlement in Hurricane-prone Areas on U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts using Nighttime Remote Sensing
Xiao Huang, Cuizhen Wang, and Junyu Lu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-64,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This study examined the spatiotemporal dynamics of nighttime satellite-derived human settlement in response to different levels of hurricane proneness in a period of 1992–2013. It confirms the Snow Belt-to-Sun Belt U.S population shift trend. The results also suggest that hurricane-exposed human settlement has grown in extent and area with more hurricane-exposure has experienced larger increase rate in settlement intensity.

Revised earthquake sources along Manila Trench for tsunami hazard assessment in the South China Sea

Tue, 04/30/2019 - 15:18
Revised earthquake sources along Manila Trench for tsunami hazard assessment in the South China Sea
Qiang Qiu, Linlin Li, Ya-Ju Hsu, Yu Wang, Chung-Han Chan, and Adam D. Switzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-116,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
The accuracy of tsunami hazard assessments is highly dependent on the reliability of earthquake source models. In this study, we combine the most updated geological and geophysical data of the Manila subduction zone to propose a series of possible rupture scenarios. These rupture models facilitate an improved understanding of the potential tsunami hazard in the South China Sea. The results highlight the grave consequences faced by the SCS, one of the world’s most densely populated coastlines.

Influencing factors and their interactions of water erosion based on yearly and monthly scale analysis: A case study in the Yellow River basin of China

Tue, 04/30/2019 - 15:18
Influencing factors and their interactions of water erosion based on yearly and monthly scale analysis: A case study in the Yellow River basin of China
Ting Hua, Wenwu Zhao, Yanxu Liu, and Yue Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-122,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
We used the RUSLE model and geographical detector method to evaluate and identify the dominant factors and variability in the Yellow River basin. We found that in the period of low rainfall and vegetation coverage, the interaction of rainfall and slope can enhance their impact on the distribution of soil erosion, while the combination of vegetation and slope was the dominant interacting factor in other periods, and the dominant driving factors of soil erosion variability were rainfall.

Evaluation of a combined drought indicator and its predictive potential for agricultural droughts in Southern Spain

Mon, 04/29/2019 - 16:12
Evaluation of a combined drought indicator and its predictive potential for agricultural droughts in Southern Spain
María del Pilar Jiménez-Donaire, Ana Tarquis, and Juan Vicente Giráldez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-135,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
A new combined drought indicator (CDI) is proposed that integrates rainfall, soil moisture and vegetation dynamics. The performance of this indicator was evaluated against crop damage data from agricultural insurance schemes in 5 different areas in SW Spain. Results show that this indicator was able to predict important droughts in 2004–2005 and 2011–2012, marked by crop damage of between 70 and 95 % of the total insured area. This opens important applications for improving insurance schemes.

Assessing the impact of sea surface temperatures on a simulated medicane using ensemble simulations

Fri, 04/26/2019 - 18:21
Assessing the impact of sea surface temperatures on a simulated medicane using ensemble simulations
Robin Noyelle, Uwe Ulbrich, Nico Becker, and Edmund P. Meredith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 941-955, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-941-2019, 2019
This paper investigates the formation of the Mediterranean hurricane that developed between Balearic Islands and Sardinia in October 1996, with a particular focus on the influence of sea surface temperature. We show that increased sea surface temperatures lead to greater probabilities of appearance and a greater strength of the resulting hurricane, suggesting that the processes for Mediterranean hurricanes at steady state are very similar to tropical cyclones.

Strategies for increasing tsunami shelter accessibility to enhance hazard risk adaptive capacity in coastal port cities: a study of Nagoya city, Japan

Wed, 04/24/2019 - 18:21
Strategies for increasing tsunami shelter accessibility to enhance hazard risk adaptive capacity in coastal port cities: a study of Nagoya city, Japan
Weitao Zhang, Jiayu Wu, and Yingxia Yun
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 927-940, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-927-2019, 2019
The study integrates tsunami hazards that create risk into hazard-product risk and hazard-affected risk. Consistent with different factors evaluated for these two risk dimensions, different spatial distributions between them can be formed. The study recommends tsunami shelter accessibility to be enhanced where hazard-product risk is large and where hazard-affected risk is high in a different and targeted way. The tsunami risk situation’s complexity in coastal port cities makes this interesting.

Landslides distribution at tributaries with different evolution stages in Jiangjia Gully, southwestern China

Tue, 04/23/2019 - 18:43
Landslides distribution at tributaries with different evolution stages in Jiangjia Gully, southwestern China
Xia Fei Tian, Yong Li, Quan Yan Tian, and Feng Huan Su
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-90,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
The relationship between geomorphic evolution and landslides distribution can reveal the landslides distribution characteristics of tributaries, 81 tributaries and 908 landslides are taken, it is found that the LD increases exponentially with EI and the LAp is concentrated in EI between 0.5 and 0.6, it means that sufficient material for debris flows can be provided, which explains the reason that JJG has the debris flow of high frequency.

A flood risk oriented dynamic protection motivation framework to explain risk reduction behaviours

Tue, 04/23/2019 - 18:43
A flood risk oriented dynamic protection motivation framework to explain risk reduction behaviours
Philippe Weyrich, Elena Mondino, Marco Borga, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anthony Patt, and Anna Scolobig
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-120,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)

Private risk reduction behaviours can significantly reduce the negative impacts of flooding and flash floods. Over the past decades, researchers have used various socio-cognitive models or threat/coping mechanisms to explain individual protective behaviours. However, these models ignore that people are not equally ready to act upon a danger and they give limited insights into the effectiveness of communication strategies to foster risk reduction behaviours. Therefore, we explored the current state of homeowner's readiness to undertake risk reduction behaviours in flood risk areas by applying a dynamic protection motivation framework. We conducted a survey in an Italian municipality that experienced severe flash flooding in September 2018. The results show that people are motivated by different factors in prompting risk reduction behaviour based on their type of protective measures. For example, people that undertook structural or avoidance measures are more likely to be motivated to protect themselves by increased perceptions of vulnerability and response efficacy, and are less worried about expected flood losses compared to people that undertook only basic emergency measures. In this paper, we argue how these new insights contribute to target flood risk communication strategies to groups of individuals characterized by different readiness stages and motivations to protect themselves.

Assessment of the 1783 Scilla landslide-tsunami effects on Calabria and Sicily coasts through numerical modeling

Tue, 04/23/2019 - 18:21
Assessment of the 1783 Scilla landslide-tsunami effects on Calabria and Sicily coasts through numerical modeling
Filippo Zaniboni, Gianluca Pagnoni, Glauco Gallotti, Maria Ausilia Paparo, Alberto Armigliato, and Stefano Tinti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-94,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
This work represents the extension of a previous investigation on the 1783 lethal landslide-tsunami, provoking more than 1,500 casualties in the coastal town of Scilla. The effects of the tsunami are here assessed on a wider domain, and compared with the available observations from historical reports. The eastern end of Sicily, named Capo Peloro, is the most affected site in the far-field. A tentative reconstruction of the coeval topography of the area is also realized, with interesting results.

Impact of airborne cloud radar reflectivity data assimilation on kilometre-scale numerical weather prediction analyses and forecasts of heavy precipitation events

Thu, 04/18/2019 - 17:58
Impact of airborne cloud radar reflectivity data assimilation on kilometre-scale numerical weather prediction analyses and forecasts of heavy precipitation events
Mary Borderies, Olivier Caumont, Julien Delanoë, Véronique Ducrocq, Nadia Fourrié, and Pascal Marquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 907-926, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-907-2019, 2019
The potential of W-band radar reflectivity to improve the quality of analyses and forecasts of heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean area is investigated. The 1D + 3DVar assimilation method has been adapted to assimilate the W-band reflectivity in the Météo-France kilometre-scale NWP model AROME. The results suggest that the joint assimilation of W-band reflectivity and horizontal wind profiles lead to a slight improvement of moisture analyses and rainfall precipitation forecasts.

Evaluating earthquake-induced rockfall hazard near the Dead Sea Transform

Thu, 04/18/2019 - 17:06
Evaluating earthquake-induced rockfall hazard near the Dead Sea Transform
Mor Kanari, Oded Katz, Ram Weinberger, Naomi Porat, and Shmuel Marco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 889-906, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-889-2019, 2019
We study rockfall hazard to a town in an earthquake-prone area, where large trailer-truck-sized boulders are scattered downslope above the town. Mapping boulder locations and sizes (in the field and in past aerial photos) and calculating their predicted trajectories downslope using computer simulation yielded a hazard map for rockfall impact. Hazard is reduced where slope angle is below 10°. Dating rockfalls coincides with past earthquakes and predicts probability for future rockfall.

Damage induced by the 25 April 2015 Nepal earthquake in the Tibetan border region of China and increased post-seismic hazards

Thu, 04/18/2019 - 15:39
Damage induced by the 25 April 2015 Nepal earthquake in the Tibetan border region of China and increased post-seismic hazards
Zhonghai Wu, Patrick J. Barosh, Guanghao Ha, Xin Yao, Yongqiang Xu, and Jie Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 873-888, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-873-2019, 2019
The main damage characteristics have been reported in Nepal caused by the 2015 Nepal earthquake but not in China. Our investigations suggested that damage caused by the earthquake in Tibet varies with intensity, amount of rock weakened by previous movement, steepness of slope, and lithology. The damage shows directional features mainly developed in the N-trending rifts in southern Tibet. The earthquake-induced landslides and collapses generally occurred where previous ones had taken place.

Assimilation of wind data from airborne Doppler cloud-profiling radar in a kilometre-scale NWP system

Wed, 04/17/2019 - 17:58
Assimilation of wind data from airborne Doppler cloud-profiling radar in a kilometre-scale NWP system
Mary Borderies, Olivier Caumont, Julien Delanoë, Véronique Ducrocq, and Nadia Fourrié
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 821-835, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-821-2019, 2019
The study reports on the impact of the assimilation of wind data from airborne Doppler cloud-profiling radar in a kilometre-scale NWP model on predicting heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean area. The positive impact of the assimilation of such data is particularly evidenced for a heavy precipitation event and results are slightly encouraging over a 45-day period. In addition, the impact of the length of the assimilation window in a 3h-3DVar assimilation system is investigated.

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