Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

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Combined list of the recent articles of the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences and the recent discussion forum Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions
Updated: 6 hours 10 min ago

Integrating large-scale hydrology and hydrodynamics for nested flood hazard modelling from the mountains to the coast

Tue, 03/12/2019 - 17:50
Integrating large-scale hydrology and hydrodynamics for nested flood hazard modelling from the mountains to the coast
Jannis M. Hoch, Dirk Eilander, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Fedor Baart, and Hessel C. Winsemius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-75,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Flood events are often complex in their origin and dynamics which should be represented in models aiming at simulating past and future events. However, it is often the case that models are designed for one specific purpose, hampering holistic flood simulations. To overcome this, we developed GLOFRIM 2.0 which allows the user to combine several models in a plug-and-play manner. It is then possible to couple models depending on the envisaged purpose and with varying complexity.

Creating a national scale debris flow susceptibility model for Great Britain: a GIS-based heuristic approach

Tue, 03/12/2019 - 17:50
Creating a national scale debris flow susceptibility model for Great Britain: a GIS-based heuristic approach
Emma J. Bee, Claire Dashwood, Catherine Pennington, Roxana L. Ciurean, and Katy Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-54,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Debris flows in Great Britain have caused damage to infrastructure, buildings, and disruption to businesses and communities. This paper outlines a methodology incorporating expert judgement and environmental factors to derive a debris flow susceptibility map for Great Britain. This spatial dataset provides a useful tool for policy-makers, developers and engineers, and can support development action plans and risk reduction strategies at the regional or national scale.

Contrasting seismic risk for Santiago, Chile, from near-field and distant earthquake sources

Mon, 03/11/2019 - 18:51
Contrasting seismic risk for Santiago, Chile, from near-field and distant earthquake sources
Ekbal Hussain, John R. Elliott, Vitor Silva, Mabé Vilar-Vega, and Deborah Kane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-30,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Many of the rapidly expanding cities around the world are located near active tectonic faults that have not produced an earthquake in recent memory. But these faults are generally small and so most previous seismic hazard analysis has focused on large more distant faults. In this paper we show that a moderate size earthquake on a fault close to the city of Santiago in Chile has a greater impact to the city than a great earthquake on the tectonic boundary in the ocean about a 100 km away.

Effects of different land use and land cover data on the landslide susceptibility zonation of road networks

Mon, 03/11/2019 - 17:50
Effects of different land use and land cover data on the landslide susceptibility zonation of road networks
Bruno M. Meneses, Susana Pereira, and Eusébio Reis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 471-487, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-471-2019, 2019

This work evaluates the influence of land use and land cover (LUC) data with different properties on the landslide susceptibility zonation of the road network in the Zêzere watershed (Portugal). The information value method was used to assess the landslide susceptibility using two models: one including detailed LUC data (the Portuguese Land Cover Map – COS) and the other including more generalized LUC data (the CORINE Land Cover – CLC). A set of fixed independent layers was considered as landslide predisposing factors (slope angle, slope aspect, slope curvature, slope-over-area ratio, soil, and lithology) while COS and CLC were used to find the differences in the landslide susceptibility zonation. A landslide inventory was used as a dependent layer, including 259 shallow landslides obtained from the photointerpretation of orthophotos from 2005, and further validated in three sample areas. The landslide susceptibility maps were assigned to the road network data and resulted in two landslide susceptibility road network maps. The models' performance was evaluated with prediction and success rate curves and the area under the curve (AUC). The landslide susceptibility results obtained in the two models present a high accuracy in terms of the AUC (>90 %), but the model with more detailed LUC data (COS) produces better results in the landslide susceptibility zonation on the road network with the highest landslide susceptibility.

A fast monitor and real time early warning system for landslides in the Baige landslide damming event, Tibet, China

Mon, 03/11/2019 - 17:50
A fast monitor and real time early warning system for landslides in the Baige landslide damming event, Tibet, China
Yongbo Wu, Ruiqing Niu, and Zhen Lu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-48,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
In this paper, a fast monitoring and real time precursor predication method is proposed to build the early warning systems for specific landslide. The fast monitoring network in this system uses ad-hoc technology to build rapid site monitoring network consist of Beidou terminals. The real time precursor predication method based on the KF-FFT-SVM model is conducted to fulfil precursor early warning of in short time. This system improves the robust and early warning efficient of traditionaly LEWs.

Estimation of near-surface attenuation in the tectonically complex contact area of the Northwestern External Dinarides and the Adriatic foreland

Fri, 03/08/2019 - 18:51
Estimation of near-surface attenuation in the tectonically complex contact area of the Northwestern External Dinarides and the Adriatic foreland
Snježana Markušić, Davor Stanko, Tvrtko Korbar, and Ivica Sović
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-4,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
Seismic-induced ground motion at a site is generally influenced by seismic source, propagation path and local site conditions. Over the last several decades, researchers have consistently asserted that for near site attenuation, the spectral parameter kappa is subject primarily to site conditions. In this research we estimated parameter kappa based on the acceleration amplitude spectrum of shear waves, from the selected recordings of local earthquakes from seismological stations situated in the western part of Croatia from the slope of the high-frequency part. The spatial distribution of individual kappa values is compared with the azimuthal distribution of earthquake epicentres, with Vs30 values and the published coda-Q values for each station, as well as with isoseismal maps for several stronger events in the investigated area, along with the geological features. The dextral shift of crustal segments and frontal thrust of the External Dinarides along the Kvarner fault zone has probably had an impact on the geometry of the kappa parameter contour lines. These results are important for gaining further insight into the attenuation of near-surface crust layers in the Northwestern External Dinarides and the associated Adriatic foreland, as well as in similar geotectonic settings.

From regional to local SPTHA: efficient computation of probabilistic tsunami inundation maps addressing near-field sources

Wed, 03/06/2019 - 18:51
From regional to local SPTHA: efficient computation of probabilistic tsunami inundation maps addressing near-field sources
Manuela Volpe, Stefano Lorito, Jacopo Selva, Roberto Tonini, Fabrizio Romano, and Beatriz Brizuela
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 455-469, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-455-2019, 2019

Site-specific seismic probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (SPTHA) is a computationally demanding task, as it requires, in principle, a huge number of high-resolution numerical simulations for producing probabilistic inundation maps. We implemented an efficient and robust methodology using a filtering procedure to reduce the number of numerical simulations needed while still allowing for a full treatment of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Moreover, to avoid biases in tsunami hazard assessment, we developed a strategy to identify and separately treat tsunamis generated by near-field earthquakes. Indeed, the coseismic deformation produced by local earthquakes necessarily affects tsunami intensity, depending on the scenario size, mechanism and position, as coastal uplift or subsidence tends to diminish or increase the tsunami hazard, respectively. Therefore, we proposed two parallel filtering schemes in the far- and the near-field, based on the similarity of offshore tsunamis and hazard curves and on the similarity of the coseismic fields, respectively. This becomes mandatory as offshore tsunami amplitudes can not represent a proxy for the coastal inundation in the case of near-field sources. We applied the method to an illustrative use case at the Milazzo oil refinery (Sicily, Italy). We demonstrate that a blind filtering procedure can not properly account for local sources and would lead to a nonrepresentative selection of important scenarios. For the specific source–target configuration, this results in an overestimation of the tsunami hazard, which turns out to be correlated to dominant coastal uplift. Different settings could produce either the opposite or a mixed behavior along the coastline. However, we show that the effects of the coseismic deformation due to local sources can not be neglected and a suitable correction has to be employed when assessing local-scale SPTHA, irrespective of the specific signs of coastal displacement.

AGRIDE-c, a conceptual model for the estimation of flood damage to crops: development and implementation

Wed, 03/06/2019 - 18:28
AGRIDE-c, a conceptual model for the estimation of flood damage to crops: development and implementation
Daniela Molinari, Anna Rita Scorzini, Alice Gallazzi, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-61,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This paper presents AGRIDE-c, a new conceptual model for the estimation of flood damage to crops, and its application in North of Italy. The model (developped with the support of agronomists and economists by means of a what-if analysis) can support more reliable assessments of the economic effectiveness of flood risk mitigation measures, and the implementation of more resilient damage alleviation practices by farmers.

Projected intensification of sub-daily and daily rainfall extremes in convection-permitting climate model simulations over North America: implications for future intensity–duration–frequency curves

Fri, 03/01/2019 - 18:28
Projected intensification of sub-daily and daily rainfall extremes in convection-permitting climate model simulations over North America: implications for future intensity–duration–frequency curves
Alex J. Cannon and Silvia Innocenti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 421-440, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-421-2019, 2019
Rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are used as the basis for water resource infrastructure design. Given intensification of the hydrological cycle with global warming, quantitative information on the future extreme rainfall hazard is needed by practitioners. Projected changes in annual maximum rainfall in high-resolution regional climate model simulations result in IDF curves that shift upward and steepen, with greater intensification at short durations and long return periods.

Simulating the effects of weather and climate on large wildfires in France

Fri, 03/01/2019 - 18:28
Simulating the effects of weather and climate on large wildfires in France
Renaud Barbero, Thomas Curt, Anne Ganteaume, Eric Maillé, Marielle Jappiot, and Adeline Bellet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 441-454, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-441-2019, 2019
We developed statistical models simulating the probability of large wildfires in France from the climate forcing. The models were able to reproduce both spatial and temporal variability in large wildfires across different environmental regions. The models have wide applications, including improving our understanding of the drivers of large wildfires over the historical period and providing a basis on which to estimate future changes to large wildfires from climate projections.

Fine scale assessment of cross boundary wildfire events in the Western US

Fri, 03/01/2019 - 18:28
Fine scale assessment of cross boundary wildfire events in the Western US
Palaiologos Palaiologou, Alan A. Ager, Cody Evers, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Michelle Day, and Haiganoush K. Preisler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-56,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
For the 11 western US States we addressed gaps in existing wildfire risk assessments that do not explicitly considered cross-boundary fire transmission among major landowners and do not identify the sources of fire for the exposed communities. Stochastic wildfire simulation outputs were post-processed in a geo-spatial framework. Our methods can be implemented across different regions of the world to inform fire management agencies decisions on the locations of future fuel management projects.

Integrated risk assessment due to slope instabilities in the roadway network of Gipuzkoa, Basque Country

Thu, 02/28/2019 - 18:28
Integrated risk assessment due to slope instabilities in the roadway network of Gipuzkoa, Basque Country
Olga Mavrouli, Jordi Corominas, Iñaki Ibarbia, Nahikari Alonso, Ioseba Jugo, Jon Ruiz, Susana Luzuriaga, and José Antonio Navarro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 399-419, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-399-2019, 2019
A methodology is proposed for the quantitative risk assessment of roadways subjected to rockfalls, retaining wall failures, and slow moving landslides. It includes the calculation of the probability of occurrence of each hazard with a given level, based on an extensive collection of field data, and its association with the consequences. The latter was assessed considering the road damage repair cost for each level in terms of a fixed unit cost.

Update of the tsunami catalogue of New Caledonia using a decision table based on seismic data and maregraphic records

Tue, 02/26/2019 - 12:32
Update of the tsunami catalogue of New Caledonia using a decision table based on seismic data and maregraphic records
Jean Roger, Bernard Pelletier, and Jérôme Aucan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-36,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
This paper presents an update of the tsunami catalogue of New Caledonia within the framework of the tsunami hazard assessment project TSUCAL. It provides 25 events for the last decade, leading to a number of 37 tsunamis triggered by earthquakes reported in New Caledonia since 1875. It is a topic of great concern for modellers looking for real case data to set up potential scenarios and decision-makers to constrain hazard management including the evacuation processes in case of a tsunami.

Bayesian Network Model for Flood Forecasting Based on Atmospheric Ensemble Forecasts

Mon, 02/25/2019 - 12:32
Bayesian Network Model for Flood Forecasting Based on Atmospheric Ensemble Forecasts
Leila Goodarzi, Mohammad Ebrahim Banihabib, Abbas Roozbahani, and Jörg Dietrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-44,2019
Manuscript under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 0 comments)
We developed a novel approach in using Bayesian Networks (BN) for ensemble flood forecasting in a case study in Iran. This allows fast early warning without the need for hydrological modelling. We recommend to combine precipitation ensembles with hydrological initial conditions in the BN. The number of observed flood events is low by nature for training data based methods. BN outperformed Artificial Neural Networks with good results. Future work will validate the concept in other basins.

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