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Abstract

This study investigates the impact of dust on radiation over the Arabian Peninsula (AP) during the reported high, low, and normal dust seasons (March–August) of 2012, 2014, and 2015, respectively. Simulations were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to a Chemistry module (WRF-Chem). The simulated seasonal horizontal and vertical dust concentrations, and their interannual distinctions, match well with those from two ground-based AERONET observations, and measurements from MODIS and CALIOP satellites. The maximum dust concentrations over the dust-source regions in the southern AP reach vertically upto 700 hPa during the high dust season, but only upto 900–950 hPa during the low/normal dust seasons. Stronger incoming low-level winds along the southern Red Sea and those from Iraq bring in higher-than-normal dust during the high dust summers. We conducted a sensitivity experiment by switching-off the dust module to assess the radiative perturbations due to dust. The results suggest that active dust-module improved the fidelity of simulated radiation fluxes distributions at the surface and top of the atmosphere vis-à-vis Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) measurements. Dust results in a 26 Wm−2 short-wave (SW) radiative forcing in the tropospheric-column over the AP. The SW radiative forcing increases by another 6–8 Wm−2 during the high dust season due to the increased number of extreme dust days, which also amplifies atmospheric heating. During extreme dust days, the heating rate exhibits a dipolar structure, with cooling over the Iraq region and warming of 40%–60% over the southern-AP.

Flood exposure of environmental assets
Gabriele Bertoli, Chiara Arrighi, and Enrica Caporali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https//doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-105,2024
Preprint under review for NHESS (discussion: open, 1 comment)
Environmental assets are crucial to sustain and fulfil life on Earth through ecosystem services. Assessing their flood risk is thus seminal, besides required by several norms. Even though, this field is not yet sufficiently developed. We explored the exposure component of the flood risk, and developed an evaluating methodology based on the ecosystem services provided by the environmental assets, to discern assets and areas more important than others with metrics suitable to large scale studies.

Abstract

Magnetotelluric (MT) impedances from 62 sites in southern South Island of Aotearoa New Zealand have been used to model geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in four transformers during two solar storms. Induced electric fields during the storms are calculated from the MT impedances using the magnetic fields measured at the Eyrewell (EYR) geomagnetic observatory, approximately 200 km north of the study area. Calculated GIC during the sudden storm commencements (SSC) give a generally good match to GIC measured by the network operator, Transpower New Zealand. Long period GIC (periods longer than about 10,000 s) are less well modeled. Calculations based on thin-sheet modeling, which has restrictions on the shortest period of variation which can be modeled, perform less well for the GIC associated with SSC, but are equally good, if not better, at modeling longer period GIC. Consistent underestimation of large GIC at one transformer (HWBT4) near Dunedin are likely to be the result of uncertainty in the assumed values of line, transformer, and earthing resistances. The assumption of a spatially uniform magnetic field across the study area, which is implied by use of the magnetic field measured at EYR as a basis for calculation, may also lead to incorrect calculation of GIC. For one storm use of magnetic field data from a magnetometer within the study area leads to much improved modeling of the observed GIC. This study compares modeled and measured GIC using specifically measured MT impedance data.

Abstract

The high-precision prediction of total ionospheric electron content (TEC) is of great significance for improving the accuracy of global navigation satellite systems. There are two problems with the current prediction of TEC: (a) The existing TEC prediction models mainly based on stacked structure, which has insufficient predictive ability when the network has fewer layers, and loss of fine-grained features when there are more layers, resulting in a decrease in predictive performance; (b) The existing research on ionospheric TEC prediction mainly focuses on building deep learning prediction models, while there is little research on optimizing the hyper-parameters of TEC prediction models. Optimization can help find a better quasi-optimal hyperparameter combination and improve the performance of the model. This paper proposed an automatic deep learning framework for global TEC map prediction, named MAOOA-Residual-Attitude-BiConvLSTM. This framework includes a TEC prediction model, Residual-Attention-BiConvLSTM, which can simultaneously consider both coarse-grained and fine-grained spatiotemporal features. It also includes an optimization algorithm, MAOOA, for optimizing the hyper-parameters of the model. We conducted comparative experiments between our framework and C1PG, ConvLSTM, ConvGRU, and ED-ConvLSTM during high solar activity years, low solar activity years, and a magnetic storm event. The results indicate that in all cases, the framework proposed in this paper outperforms the comparative models.

Abstract

Ionospheric delay, as one of the largest error sources in radio propagation, can only be corrected for this error using the ionospheric delay correction model for Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) single-frequency users. In this paper, the 2021 geomagnetic storm event is selected, and based on the measured ionospheric data from the GNSS observatory, the perturbation of the ionosphere by the geomagnetic storm event is analyzed, and it is found that the response of the ionosphere to the geomagnetic storm has obvious differences in the response characteristics and response time in different latitude regions. The performance of the global ionospheric map (GIM), the empirical model, and the broadcast ionospheric model during the geomagnetic storm-induced ionospheric perturbation is analyzed and the change in the accuracy of each ionospheric model during the geomagnetic storm-induced ionospheric perturbation is investigated, using the measured electron content of the GNSS as a benchmark. The results show that there is good agreement between the GIM products and the measured electron content during the period of ionospheric calm and the period of ionospheric perturbation. It is worth noting that geomagnetic storms do not necessarily lead to a decrease in the accuracy of ionospheric delay-correction models, and in some cases, the models that were originally under-accurate show a tendency to improve their accuracy during the period of perturbation instead. Neither the broadcast ionospheric model nor the electron content of the empirical model output responds to geomagnetic storm-induced ionospheric perturbations.

Abstract

Ultra-low frequency (ULF) waves transfer energy and momentum into the ionosphere-thermosphere system. To quantify this energy, this paper first presents a new method to quantitatively detect ULF waves in Incoherent Scatter Radar (ISR) data based on 2D fast-Fourier transforms and subsequent reconstruction of the wave. In parallel with other data sets, including optical, magnetometer, satellite, and models, we present the first full ionospheric energy dissipation rates for a ULF wave, split into electromagnetic (EM) and kinetic fluxes. The EM energy deposition is calculated from the use of the Poynting theorem, looking at Joule and frictional heating rates, where both rates show the same order of magnitude (1.24 × 1013 and 7.3 × 1012 J) respectively when integrated over the wave lifetime of 2 hr 15 min and an area of 4° magnetic latitude × 74° magnetic longitude. However, contrary to the common assumption that the EM flux is dominant, we determined the kinetic flux, to be almost equal in magnitude (8.7 × 1012 J). This indicates that previous papers might have underestimated the total energy dissipation by ULF waves. Compared to the substorm energy budget, we find that locally, the ULF wave event studied here makes up approximately 10% of a typical substorm cycle budget.

Abstract

For the first time, characteristics of the geographical and seasonal distribution of the quasi-diurnal lunar O1 tide were derived from a time series of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) maps provided by International Global Navigation Satellite System Service (IGS). The data analysis is focused on solar minimum in 2008 and 2009 where disturbing influences of geomagnetic and solar activity were minimal. We found that the magnitude of the O1 tide is as strong as the “dominant” semidiurnal lunar M2 tide. Relative amplitudes of 10% and larger are observed in some regions for the O1 component in TEC. The O1 component is particularly strong in northern hemispheric winter over the west coast of South America. There, two maxima occur which are northward and southward of the magnetic equator in the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) crest regions. Following Yamazaki et al. (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017ja024601), it might be assumed that a longitudinal anomaly of ionospheric conductivities in the Peruvian sector leads to a stronger modulation of the equatorial electrojet by the lunar tides. Electrodynamic lifting of plasma and transport to the EIA crests may explain the variations of the O1 component in TEC. Contrary to many studies, we find the O1 component (period 25.82 hr) more important than the M1 component (period 24.84 hr, a lunar day). We show that the geographical distribution of the O1 component is totally different from that of the M1 component which is smaller. The seasonal variation of O1 shows maximal amplitudes in northern hemispheric winter and minimal amplitudes in southern hemispheric winter.

Abstract

When solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) disturb, thermospheric winds change accordingly. Among the momentum forces driving high-latitude thermospheric winds, ion drag is supposed to greatly affect wind variations through ion-neutral coupling when abrupt and strong changes in ion drifts occur. However, due to the great inertia of thermospheric winds it needs a certain period of time for the wind changes to be prominent both in speed and direction. How long the neutral winds take to change from one steady state to another through the ion-neutral coupling process is currently still a controversial issue. In this paper, we examine the high latitudinal ion-neutral coupling time scale based on the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model simulations, which can determine whether wind variations are dominantly driven by ion drag by analyzing the relative contribution of each momentum force. It is found that the spatial variation of ion-neutral coupling time scale is primarily determined by local electron density, but also varies with neutral density and ion-neutral collision frequency. Simulations during periods of medium solar activity at ∼250 km altitude show that the ion drag-dominated region is generally located at the dayside convection inverse boundary and the coupling time scale (e-folding time) is ∼1 hr when IMF B y is the dominant component of the IMF and changes direction. Meanwhile, the southward component of IMF B z enlarges the ion drag-dominated region. When IMF B z is southward with a large magnitude, ion drag-dominated region is primarily located in the nightside auroral oval with ∼2 hr coupling time scale.

Abstract

Energetic particle injections are commonly observed in Jupiter's magnetosphere and have important impacts on the radiation belts. We evaluate the roles of electron injections in the dynamics of whistler-mode waves and relativistic electrons using Juno measurements and wave-particle interaction modeling. The Juno spacecraft observed injected electron flux bursts at energies up to 300 keV at M shell ∼11 near the magnetic equator during perijove-31. The electron injections are related to chorus wave bursts at 0.05–0.5 f ce frequencies, where f ce is the electron gyrofrequency. The electron pitch angle distributions are anisotropic, peaking near 90° pitch angle, and the fluxes are high during injections. We calculate the whistler-mode wave growth rates using the observed electron distributions and linear theory. The frequency spectrum of the wave growth rate is consistent with that of the observed chorus magnetic intensity, suggesting that the observed electron injections provide free energy to generate whistler-mode chorus waves. We further use quasilinear theory to model the impacts of chorus waves on 0.1–10 MeV electrons. Our modeling shows that the chorus waves could cause the pitch angle scattering loss of electrons at <1 MeV energies and accelerate relativistic electrons at multiple MeV energies in Jupiter's outer radiation belt. The electron injections also provide an important seed population at several hundred keV energies to support the acceleration to higher energies. Our wave-particle interaction modeling demonstrates the energy flow from the electron injections to the relativistic electron population through the medium of whistler-mode waves in Jupiter's outer radiation belt.

Linking global terrestrial and ocean biogeochemistry with process-based, coupled freshwater algae–nutrient–solid dynamics in LM3-FANSY v1.0
Minjin Lee, Charles A. Stock, John P. Dunne, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5191–5224, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5191-2024, 2024
Modeling global freshwater solid and nutrient loads, in both magnitude and form, is imperative for understanding emerging eutrophication problems. Such efforts, however, have been challenged by the difficulty of balancing details of freshwater biogeochemical processes with limited knowledge, input, and validation datasets. Here we develop a global freshwater model that resolves intertwined algae, solid, and nutrient dynamics and provide performance assessment against measurement-based estimates.

Merged Observatory Data Files (MODFs): an integrated observational data product supporting process-oriented investigations and diagnostics
Taneil Uttal, Leslie M. Hartten, Siri Jodha Khalsa, Barbara Casati, Gunilla Svensson, Jonathan Day, Jareth Holt, Elena Akish, Sara Morris, Ewan O'Connor, Roberta Pirazzini, Laura X. Huang, Robert Crawford, Zen Mariani, Øystein Godøy, Johanna A. K. Tjernström, Giri Prakash, Nicki Hickmon, Marion Maturilli, and Christopher J. Cox
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 5225–5247, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-5225-2024, 2024
A Merged Observatory Data File (MODF) format to systematically collate complex atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial data sets collected by multiple instruments during field campaigns is presented. The MODF format is also designed to be applied to model output data, yielding format-matching Merged Model Data Files (MMDFs). MODFs plus MMDFs will augment and accelerate the synergistic use of model results with observational data to increase understanding and predictive skill.

Abstract

Both historical observations and recent modeling studies reveal a faster warming in the Arctic compared to the Antarctic. To understand the role of the Antarctic Circumpolar Circulation (ACC) in this warming asymmetry, we simulate the climate mean state and climate response to doubled CO2 under different climate mean ACC states by closing or opening the Drake Passage (DP) with the Community Earth System Model. From closed to open DP, a stronger climate mean ACC leads to a stronger climate mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), as well as a colder Antarctic but a warmer Arctic in the climate mean state. The less climate mean sea ice coverage in a warmer Arctic implies less extensive sea ice melting under global warming. This causes a reduced asymmetry in warming between the two poles in response to the doubled CO2.

Abstract

The Great Arctic Cyclone 2012 (AC12) is used to understand the role of initial condition errors in the predictability at 2–3-day forecast range of a high-impact summer Arctic Cyclone (AC). Ensemble sensitivity analysis (ESA) is first performed to identify potentially sensitive regions of the cyclone evolution using an ensemble baseline forecast with conventional in situ observations assimilated. A pseudo-observation method is then introduced to investigate impacts of hypothetical observations in these sensitive but unobserved regions. In the baseline experiments with in situ observations assimilated, the forecasted AC12 reaches its peak intensity 18 hr earlier than in the verifying Global Forecast System Analysis (GFS-ANL) and the cyclone track is biased toward the southwest. Using ESA, the time of peak intensity and the cyclone track error are identified to be sensitive to the upstream trough, downstream ridge, and the tropopause polar vortex (TPV) to the northeast (NE TPV) of the AC12. These features were not observed by the in situ observation networks. To examine the impact of the observation gaps, pseudo-observations drawn from GFS-ANL are assimilated. Pseudo-observations sample the three features separately to study the impact of the initial condition error on the predictability of AC12. The cyclone peak intensity timing error and track error are greatly reduced when the initial condition error is reduced near the NE TPV. A southward expansion of the NE TPV and the corresponding southward shifting low-level front lead the forecasted AC12 to progress to the east, which better agrees with the verifying GFS-ANL.

Abstract

This study investigates the escape of Mercury's sodium-group ions (Na+-group, including ions with m/q from 21 to 30 amu/e) and their dependence on true anomaly angle (TAA), that is, Mercury's orbital phase around the Sun, using measurements from MESSENGER. The measurements are categorized into solar wind, magnetosheath, and magnetosphere, and further divided into four TAA intervals. Na+-group ions form escape plumes in the solar wind and magnetosheath, with higher fluxes along the solar wind's motional electric field. The total escape rates vary from 0.2 to 1 × 1025 atoms/s with the magnetosheath being the main escaping region. These rates exhibit a TAA dependence, peaking near the perihelion and similar during Mercury's remaining orbit. Despite Mercury's tenuous exosphere, Na+-group ions escape rate is comparable to other inner planets. This can be attributed to several processes, including that Na+-group ions may include several ion species, efficient photoionization frequency for elements within Na-group, etc.

Abstract

In this study, we investigate the role of cold pools in modulating convective organization throughout the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) life cycle using a modeling approach that combines Eulerian and Lagrangian techniques. First, we conduct a simulation using the soundings and forcing of the DYNAMO/AMIE campaign. The simulation shows a lag of several days between the precipitation rate peak time associated with MJO and the highest convective organization time. Second, to analyze the role of cold pools, we consider a series of 2-day simulations conducted at different stages of the MJO. The simulation results suggest that cold pools are larger and last longer during the mature stages of the MJO, possibly because of decreased environmental surface latent heat fluxes and stronger downdrafts. These lead to the formation of moist rings at the leading edges of cold pools, facilitating the formation of more convective cores and increasing the degree of convective organization.

Abstract

Antarctic Bottom Water has been warming in recent decades throughout most of the oceans and freshening in regions close to its Indian and Pacific sector sources. We assess warming rates on isobars in the eastern Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean using CTD data collected from shipboard surveys from the early 1990s through the late 2010s together with CTD data collected from Deep Argo floats deployed in the region in January 2023. We show cooling and freshening in the temperature-salinity relation for water colder than ∼0.4°C. We further find a recent acceleration in the regional bottom water warming rate vertically averaged for pressures exceeding 3,700 dbar, with the 2017/18 to 2023/24 trend of 7.5 (±0.9) m°C yr−1 nearly triple the 1992/95 to 2023/24 trend of 2.8 (±0.2) m°C yr−1. The 0.2°C isotherm descent rate for these same time periods nearly quadruples from 7.8 to 28 m yr−1.

Abstract

During February 2023, the quasi-4-day wave (Q4DW) with westward zonal wavenumber 2 (W2) reached its largest amplitude of ∼400 m in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) geopotential height observations since 2004, which occurred simultaneously with an Arctic major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) with an elevated stratopause (ES). However, the Q4DW-W2 perturbations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) were unexpectedly suppressed despite the unstable Arctic stratosphere and mesosphere during the 2023 ES-SSW. Diagnostic analysis shows that the westward winds at ∼54°N–70°N in the upper stratosphere of ∼-79 m/s during the 2023 ES-SSW were the strongest during boreal winters over the past two decades, which benefited from the onset of a preceding minor SSW at the end of January. The strongest westward wind generated a wave geometry configuration of full reflection for Q4DW-W2 in the NH, while the Q4DW-W2 enhancement in the SH was induced by the in-situ amplification of the surviving seeding perturbations.

Abstract

Ozone (O3) pollution is a severe air quality issue in China, posing a threat to human health and ecosystems. The climate change will affect O3 levels by directly changing physical and chemical processes of O3 and indirectly changing natural emissions of O3 precursors. In this study, near-surface O3 concentrations in China in 2030 and 2060 are predicted using the process-based interpretable Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model integrated with multi-source data. The results show that the climate-driven O3 levels over eastern China are projected to decrease by more than 0.4 ppb in 2060 under the carbon neutral scenario (SSP1-1.9) compared with the high emission scenario (SSP5-8.5). Among this reduction, 80% is attributed to the changes in physical and chemical processes of O3 related to a cooler climate, while the remaining 20% is attributed to the reduced biogenic isoprene emissions.

Abstract

The quantitative relationship between Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) and floods over East Asia has not been established. In this study, MCSs are clustered into four types with Self-Organizing Map approach. Floods in June-August of 2000–2021 are linked with different types of MCS by automated algorithms we constructed. We find that among the major floods (potential flood peak periods), 91% (87%) are related to MCS, 65% (78%) are dominated by MCS, and 38% (20%) are dominated by multi-types of MCS. Types 1 and 2 MCS have higher flood-inducing efficiencies than common MCS (Type-4). Type-1 MCS, characterized by the least number (2% of the total number), the largest precipitation volume, longest lifetime, slowest moving, strongest precipitation, can most efficiently produce floods. Type-2 MCS, characterized by the second largest precipitation volume, more numerous than Type-1 particularly over land, can induce floods not only relatively efficiently but also more frequently than Type-1.

Abstract

An area of ocean centered on 179°E, 46°S has warmed to full depth since 2006, with surface warming around 5 times the global rate. This Subtropical Front area is associated with a confluence of warm, salty, subtropical water from the north carried in a western boundary current and cold, fresh, subantarctic water from the south carried in the northernmost branch of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Temperature and salinity changes observed from Argo floats indicate that the Subtropical Frontal Zone has moved west ∼120 km, creating this area of strong warming analogous to changes in extension regions of other western boundary currents. The warming is a result of changes in the local flows of subantarctic water, evident in satellite altimeter data and 1,000 m Argo trajectories, which in turn likely result from changes in meridional ocean heat content and winds. The warming has placed this biologically-significant region in almost perpetual marine heatwave conditions.