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Full wavefield surface wave analysis with Bayesian Evidential Learning

Geophysical Journal International - Mon, 12/08/2025 - 00:00
AbstractSurface waves such as Rayleigh, Love and Scholte waves can exhibit dispersion, i.e., variations in phase velocity with wavelength as a function of frequency. This property enables the inversion of 1D models of seismic velocity and density in the subsurface. Conventional deterministic and stochastic inversion schemes are widely applied to surface wave data but face two main challenges. The first is the identification of dispersion curves for fundamental and higher modes on wavefield-transformed images, which is often done manually. The second is the quantification of uncertainty, which can be computationally expensive in stochastic approaches or limited to data-propagated uncertainty in deterministic inversions. Our objectives are to (1) eliminate the need for manual or automatic dispersion curve picking, and (2) directly infer ensembles of 1D velocity models - and their associated uncertainties - from the full velocity spectrum, i.e., the complete dispersion image containing all modes. To this end, we employ Bayesian Evidential Learning, a predictive framework that reproduces experimental data from prior information while allowing prior falsification. In our application, ensembles of prior Earth models are sampled to predict 1D subsurface structures in terms of seismic velocity and, where applicable, attenuation from near-surface seismic wave data. This approach bypasses traditional inversion schemes and provides a computationally efficient tool for uncertainty quantification.

Intraplate Repeating Earthquakes in the Rupture Area of the 2008 Gyeryongsan, Korea, Mw 3.6 Earthquake

Geophysical Journal International - Mon, 12/08/2025 - 00:00
SummaryRepeating earthquakes are believed to result from recurring ruptures of a single asperity, driven by surrounding aseismic creep. However, their occurrence and behavior in intraplate regions remain poorly understood. This study investigates the repeating earthquakes in the Gyeryongsan region of the Korean Peninsula, a tectonically stable intraplate region, following the 2008 Mw 3.56 earthquake. We augmented the earthquake catalogue from 2007 to 2022 using template matching and identified one repeating earthquake family comprising ten events with irregular recurrence intervals. The repeating earthquakes, with a median magnitude of Mw 1.22, occurred within the rupture area of the Mw 3.56 mainshock, beginning in late 2010 and subsequently recurring intermittently between 2011 and 2019. Stress drops of nearby earthquakes increased gradually from 0.3-0.9 MPa to 8.6 MPa over a decade, indicating a fault strength recovery period substantially longer than that typically observed at plate boundaries. We interpret that the earthquakes occurred within a damaged fault zone, reflecting extremely low loading rates in the intraplate region. Our study provides insights into earthquake behaviour within intraplate damaged fault zones and documents a rare case of a repeating earthquake family that persisted over ∼12 years.

Autonomous satellite orbit determination and time comparison with space-based VLBI measurements

Publication date: Available online 1 December 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Yifan Wu, Qianyi Ren, Richang Dong, Xinying Lu, Mingyuan Zhang

Groundwater science in the age of AI: emerging paradigms and challenges

Publication date: Available online 1 December 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Mahfuzur Rahman, Asif Raihan, Syed Masiur Rahman, Md Anuwer Hossain, Mohammed Benaafi, Isam H. Aljundi

A Dual-Capsule Structural Airship for Flight in the Stratosphere

Publication date: Available online 1 December 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Zhiguang Shi, Zongyu Zuo, Jiawei Song, Jingchuan Tang, Gang Wang

Monitoring and Forecasting Agricultural Drought in Golestan Province, Iran (2001-2028): An Integrated Approach Using Remote Sensing and Machine Learning

Publication date: Available online 1 December 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Mahsa Jahanbakhsh, Mehdi Akhoondzadeh

Attitude Estimation of Uncontrolled Space Objects: A Bayesian-Informed Swarm Intelligence Approach

Publication date: Available online 1 December 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Jorge Rubio, Adrián Andrés, Carlos Paulete, Ángel Gallego, Diego Escobar

Long-Term Frozen Repeat Orbits with Large Eccentricity under Complex Perturbations

Publication date: Available online 1 December 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Tao Nie, Zhijun Que, Shijie Zhang, Jiadong Ren, Rui Xu

Ionospheric Response to Extreme Geomagnetic Storm (<math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" altimg="si35.svg" class="math"><mrow><mi>G</mi><mn>5</mn></mrow></math>) of 10 May 2024 over the African Sector

Publication date: Available online 29 November 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Geletaw Behailu, Abdu Mohammed, Yibekal Kassa, Michael W. Liemhon

Storms in the Southern Ocean are producing more rain—and the consequences could be global

Phys.org: Earth science - Sat, 12/06/2025 - 17:00
If you ever find yourself on Macquarie Island—a narrow, wind-lashed ridge halfway between Tasmania and Antarctica—the first thing you'll notice is the wildlife. Elephant seals sprawl across dark beaches. King penguins march up mossy slopes. Albatrosses circle over vast, treeless uplands.

New approach narrows uncertainty in future warming and remaining carbon budget for 2°C

Phys.org: Earth science - Sat, 12/06/2025 - 15:00
How much the planet warms with each ton of carbon dioxide remains one of the most important questions in climate science, but there is uncertainty in predicting it. This uncertainty hinders governments, businesses and communities from setting clear emission-reduction targets and preparing for the impacts of climate change.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Global Broadcast Ionospheric Model Accuracy for GNSS Systems During 2023-2024 Solar Maximum Period

Publication date: Available online 29 November 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Xiangyi Zhang, Hongliang Cai, Qiang Zhang, Ang Liu, Chenghe Fang, Ji Guo

Vibration control of magnetically coupled flexible hinged plate using SAIS-TQCRL algorithm

Publication date: Available online 29 November 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): Zhi-cheng Qiu, Run Yuan, Xian-min Zhang

Quiet-Time Response of Bifurcated and Normal Equatorial Plasma Bubbles on GPS TEC and VHF Scintillation over the Low-Latitude Indian Region: A Case Study

Publication date: Available online 28 November 2025

Source: Advances in Space Research

Author(s): A.P. Mane, R.N. Ghodpage, O.B. Gurav, G.A. Chavan, R.S. Vhatkar, P.P. Chikode, K.S. Maner, S.S. Mahajan

Microplastics in oceans may distort carbon cycle understanding

Phys.org: Earth science - Fri, 12/05/2025 - 18:04
The carbon cycle in our oceans is critical to the balance of life in ocean waters and for reducing carbon in the atmosphere, a significant process to curbing climate change or global warming.

A Cryobank Network Grows in the Coral Triangle

EOS - Fri, 12/05/2025 - 14:23

The Coral Triangle is a biodiversity hot spot. At least for now.

More than 600 species of coral grow in this massive area straddling the Pacific and Indian Oceans, stretching from the Philippines to Bali to the Solomon Islands. But as the oceans get hotter, coral reefs—and the ecosystems they support—are at risk. Experts predict up to 90% of coral could disappear from the world’s warming oceans by 2050.

Research institutions are racing to preserve corals, and one strategy involves placing them in a deep freeze. By archiving corals in cryobanks, biologists can buy time for research and restoration—and hopefully stave off extinction.

A new capacity-building project is training cryocollaborators in the Coral Triangle region, starting at the University of the Philippines (UP).

The initiative is “very, very urgent,” said Chiahsin Lin, a cryobiologist who is leading the project from Taiwan’s National Museum of Marine Biology and Aquarium.

Room to Grow

“We don’t have that much time to develop the techniques.”

A cryobank is like a frozen library. But instead of books, the shelves are lined with canisters of coral sperm, larvae, and even whole coral fragments chilled in liquid nitrogen.

Coral cryobanking can aid in coral preservation and future cultivation. But the process is tricky and time-consuming and requires trial and error. The temperature and timing that work for one species won’t carry over to others. Plus, it can take 30 minutes to freeze a single coral larva, said Lin.

University of the Philippines research assistant Ryan Carl De Juan works with Sun Yat-Sen University Ph.D. student Federica Buttari on vitrification and cryobanking procedures at the National Museum of Marine Biology and Aquarium laboratory in Taiwan. Credit: UP MSI Interactions of Marine Bionts and Benthic Ecosystems Laboratory

While materials from hundreds of species have been frozen, very few larvae have been successfully revived and brought to adulthood.

“We hope more and more people can be involved in this research,” Lin said. “We don’t have that much time to develop the techniques.”

The new project aims to increase the number of trained professionals who can freeze the world’s corals. UP’s Marine Science Institute is currently working to open the first cryobank in Southeast Asia. Lin has visited UP multiple times to train researchers on cryopreservation and vitrification. The UP team also traveled to Taiwan to work with samples in Lin’s lab.

The project will establish future cryobanks in Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia as well. Those teams will also participate in similar trainings to reach a shared goal: a network of coral cryobanks in the Coral Triangle.

Pausing the Clock

A major benefit of cryopreservation is that it pauses the clock. Some coral species spawn for only a few hours or days each year, and that window changes by species and by region. If a lab group misses the release, they may wait months before collecting materials again.

By freezing coral samples, researchers have more opportunities to experiment throughout the year.

In the past, Emmeline Jamodiong, a coral reproduction biologist in the Philippines, led coral reproduction trainings for stakeholders across the country. Logistics were complicated. People needed to travel from different regions and islands, but “we had to wait for the corals to spawn before we could conduct the training.” Now, even if it’s not spawning season, researchers could still work with coral reproduction.

A local cryobank “offers a lot of future research opportunities,” she said. “I’m very happy that we have this facility established in the Philippines.”

A new cryobank in the Philippines will focus on Pocilloporidae, a family of corals that grows fast, reproduces quickly, and is among the first to root on disturbed reefs. Like nearly all corals, though, Pocilloporidae are sensitive to coral bleaching and climate stress. Credit: UP MSI Interactions of Marine Bionts and Benthic Ecosystems Laboratory Freezing for the Future

The new project in the Coral Triangle is a helpful addition to cryobiology, said Mary Hagedorn, a senior scientist at the Smithsonian’s National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute who developed the field of coral cryobanking.

“A real bottleneck for this field is there’s so few people that are trained as cryobiologists,” said Hagedorn. Every effort to expand the research ranks is valuable.

But cryobanks are just one part of coral conservation, she said. Aquariums that cultivate live coral are also important. Secure storage is essential to keeping samples safe from storms and power outages. Sustained government funding is needed to keep coral frozen and make sure staff are continuously trained.

“Without starting this project, there’s no hope for coral reefs.”

Some coral populations are already functionally extinct, making global collaborations like the one between Taiwan and the Philippines key.

“No one person can cryopreserve all the species of corals in the ocean,” Hagedorn said. Lin’s team has “a wonderful opportunity to get some amazing species and genetic diversity.”

Hagedorn’s international collaborators think it may take 15–25 years to collect enough coral larvae to ensure genetic diversity for a species. Many corals still need a tailor-made recipe for freezing and thawing if they’re going to be cryobanked at all. It’s a daunting task and a tight timeline available to only a handful of institutions around the world. The Coral Triangle network will add to that number.

“Without starting this project, there’s no hope for coral reefs,” Lin said. Coral cryobanking “gives tomorrow’s ocean a better chance.”

—J. Besl (@j_besl, @jbesl.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Besl J. (2025), A cryobank network grows in the Coral Triangle, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250451. Published on 5 December 2025. Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Stabilisation of full-vector palaeosecular variation in the last 5 million years: Insights from a newly updated Palaeointensity (PINT) Database

Geophysical Journal International - Fri, 12/05/2025 - 00:00
SummaryThe Palaeomagnetic Intensity (PINT) database documents variations in the full-vector of the ancient geomagnetic field that can be used to provide insights into the operation and evolution of the geodynamo. In this study, we report an update of PINT and the evolving behaviour of the palaeomagnetic field since 17 Ma. The update is the addition of 206 recently published site-mean data with ages between 0.06 and 2610 Ma that have been assessed using the palaeointensity quality criteria (QPI). Using this database, we analysed, for the first time, the distribution of values of the palaeosecular variation index (PSVi) in intervals drawn from the past 17 million years. Our results indicate that this index was enhanced prior to 5 Ma reflecting both lower average virtual dipole moments and higher angular deviations of the virtual geomagnetic pole (VGP) from the geographic pole. The present Brunhes chron is highlighted as being associated with especially high measurements of dipole moment which we hypothesise may be related to its already long duration relative to most other chrons of the last 17 Myr.

Fibre-optic exploration of the cryosphere

Geophysical Journal International - Fri, 12/05/2025 - 00:00
SummaryThe icy parts of the Earth, known as the cryosphere, are an integral part of the climate system. Comprehensively understanding the cryosphere requires dense observations, not only of its surface, but also of its internal structure and dynamics. Seismic methods play a central role in this endeavour. Fibre-optic sensing is emerging as a valuable complement and alternative to well-established inertial seismometers. Offering metre-scale channel spacing, interrogation distances of up to ∼100 km, and a bandwidth from mHz to kHz, it has enabled new seismological applications, for instance, under water, in cities and on volcanoes. Cryosphere research particularly benefits from fibre-optic sensing because long cables can be deployed with relative ease in icy environments where dense arrays of seismometers are difficult to install, including glaciers, ice sheets and deep boreholes. Intended to facilitate future fibre-optic seismology research in the cryosphere, this Expository Review combines a classical publication review with theoretical background, a practical field guide, a cryospheric signal gallery, and open-access data examples for hands-on training. Following a summary of recent findings about firn and ice structure, glacial seismicity, hydrology and avalanche dynamics, we derive the ideal instrument response of a distributed fibre-optic deformation sensor. To approach this ideal in field experiments, we propose numerous practical dos and don’ts concerning the choice and handling of fibre-optic cables, required equipment, splicing in the field at low temperatures, cable layout and trenching, and the deployment and coupling of cables in boreholes. A cryospheric signal gallery provides examples of data from a wide range of sources, such as explosions, land and air traffic, electricity generators, basal stick-slip icequakes, surface crevassing, englacial icequake cascades, floating ice shelf resonance, surface water flow and snow avalanches. Many of these data are enclosed as an open-access training resource, together with code for reading, visualisation and simple analyses. This review concludes with a discussion of grand open challenges in our understanding of cryosphere structure and dynamics, and how further advances in fibre-optic sensing may help to overcome them.

Lightning channels reveal hidden bursts: Lateral negative re-discharges observed for first time

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 12/04/2025 - 20:43
A new study led by researchers from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) has uncovered the first observational evidence of lateral negative re-discharges occurring on negative leader channels. Published recently in Geophysical Research Letters, the findings offer new insights into how lightning channels remain electrically active and how their structures evolve before and after a return stroke.

Researchers highlight need for caution in selecting global soil moisture data

Phys.org: Earth science - Thu, 12/04/2025 - 20:04
A new study led by Prof. Duan Weili from the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography (XIEG) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences emphasizes the importance of selecting appropriate datasets for global soil moisture research. The study was published in the Science Bulletin on Oct. 31.

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