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The report of the external review commissioned by Tauranga City Council into the Mount Maunganui Beachside Holiday Park landslide

Wed, 08/19/2026 - 07:17

The external review of the Mount Maunganui Beachside Holiday Park landslide is extremely critical of the local authority in their approach to the management of the well-documented landslide hazard and risk at the site.

The external review commissioned by Tauranga City Council (TCC) into the 22 January 2026 Mount Maunganui Beachside Holiday Park landslide released its report today. It has been extensively covered in the New Zealand media. The conclusions are quite devastating for TCC, but are also likely to have wider implications for the management of risk from natural hazards across New Zealand.

The 22 January 2026 landslide at Mount Maunganui in New Zealand. Image from the TCC external review.

It is important to remember the terms of reference of this external review, which was undertaken by Hon. Paul Davison KSO KC:

“the external review examines the facts, timeline and decision-making processes leading up to the landslide, the adequacy of risk assessments and monitoring systems, and any lessons or improvements needed to strengthen future safety. The external review is separate from the Government Inquiry and the investigations currently being undertaken by the Coroner, Police and WorkSafe.”

So this review does not look at the initiation of the landslide – that will come in due course – it is really about the management of the risk. The conclusions are summarised in this section of the report (p. 204):-

What this Review does find is that this tragedy was, in the end, preventable. I do not mean by that that anyone could have known that this slope would fail at this moment, on this particular morning — no one could. I mean something more deeply troubling: that the hazard was known, that an effective and inexpensive means of managing the risk it posed had twice been recommended, and that the Council had every opportunity to put it in place. Had it done so, the most consequential decision of 22 January — whether to move people away from the foot of the slope — would not have been left to the unaided judgement of whoever happened to be on site that morning. It would have been made in advance, against defined criteria that the readily observable conditions of that day would plainly have met. What was required was not extraordinary foresight. It was the robust operational processes and discipline required of a well-run organisation: that a known risk to life be owned by someone, recorded, escalated, and followed through until an effective means of mitigating it was in place, and that those left in charge of the campground were equipped to recognise the danger, and ready to act quickly and effectively if ever required.

The report highlights that multiple studies showed that the risk to life at the campsite was unacceptably high – indeed, by some calculations the impact of this event was lower than had been feared. This is primarily because individuals at the site recognised that the risk was high and started to raise the alarm. If the Mount Maunganui Beachside Holiday Park landslide had occurred in the early hours of the morning the toll would probably have been higher.

There is little in this report with which I disagree, and the consequences for TCC are likely to be serious. I’m unsure as to the detail of the New Zealand judicial system, but in the UK this report would open the path to both civil and criminal court action, with the latter potentially occurring at both the institutional and individual level.

If there is one thing that worries me, it is that the the report does not fully recognise that early warning systems and evacuation plans are not a magic bullet. There is strong evidence from multiple settings that they can be dogged by uncertainty, equipment failures, false alarms and a lack of willingness from individuals to respond in the way that is planned.

But that is not an excuse for failing to have such a system in place.

Apart from the direct impact on TCC and its members, this report is likely to have profound implications for landslide risk management in New Zealand. Take this recommendation for example:

“For every populated site controlled by TCC, exposed to a natural-hazard risk to life assessed as Medium or higher, TCC should require — not merely consider — the development and maintenance of a Trigger Action Response Plan. The TARP should: be capable of immediate implementation in a simple initial form (for example, staged evacuation of defined runout zones when rainfall exceeds a defined return interval threshold over a defined duration), and be refined over time as a living document; link specific, observable or measurable triggers — defined rainfall thresholds, antecedent soil-moisture, and visible signs such as turbid water from the toe of a slope, tension cracking, bulging or changes in seepage — to specific, staged actions up to and including full evacuation; empower designated site personnel to act on a trigger immediately, without needing approval from someone higher in the TCC organisation; identify who holds each responsibility and the communication and escalation protocol; and recognise that evacuation/avoidance is a higher-order control than engineered consequence-reduction.”

Whilst this recommendation is TCC specific, it is inevitably going to have implications across all local authorities in New Zealand. The country inevitably has many, many sites in which “natural-hazard risk to life” is medium or above. This recommendation is going to require a very extensive revisit of risk management at those locations. In a country with a small population and a very large, hazard-prone landmass, that is going impose a major burden.

It is worth noting that TCC has “today accepted the findings and recommendations from the external review into the landslide at Mount Maunganui Beachside Holiday Park on 22 January 2026”.

The reverberations of the tragic Mount Maunganui Beachside Holiday Park landslideare going to continue for a long time.

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Arctic Report Card Will Move Ahead Without NOAA

Tue, 08/18/2026 - 21:58
body {background-color: #D2D1D5;} Research & Developments is a blog for brief updates that provide context for the flurry of news regarding law and policy changes that impact science and scientists today.

The Arctic Report Card, an annual, peer-reviewed evaluation of the state of our warming Arctic, will still be published this year despite a lack of financial or logistical support from NOAA. 

On 10 August, editors of the Arctic Report Card were informed that NOAA will no longer support its publication, meaning the agency will not provide the report with coordinating editors, coordinate its external peer review, or fund the report’s web presence, publicity, graphics, or summary video. 

After a meeting of non-NOAA editors and chapter authors, however, the Arctic Report Card team has decided to move forward with publishing the 2026 report. Many of the report’s authors had been well into their work on their chapters when they learned that NOAA would no longer support that work.

“While many of the details are not final, we will be producing an ARC sans NOAA this year,” Rick Thoman, an Arctic scientist at the University of Alaska Fairbanks and an editor of the 2026 report, wrote in a message to Eos. Thoman said the team is not yet sharing which organization will host the 2026 Arctic Report Card, but that there has been a “tremendous outpouring of support for the Arctic Report Card, from individuals to large organizations.”

 
Related

He said the team plans to move forward with the original plan to present the report’s findings in a press conference at the 2026 AGU Annual Meeting in San Francisco, Calif. this December. Thoman also said the group of editors and authors is “pursuing multiple avenues” to produce the report’s graphics and summary video, and that they are planning to establish a non-NOAA website to serve as a long-term home for the Arctic Report Card in future years. 

“A lot of what we’re doing right now is, ‘How do we get this year’s report card out?’” he said. “But we are looking at the longer term, [also].”

The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), part of the Arctic Council (an international Arctic policy and research collaboration), previously found reviewers and carried out the review process for the report. According to Thoman, AMAP has committed to providing that service for the 2026 report card. 

Science for Stakeholders

Having support from NOAA gave the report a heightened credibility for stakeholders, said Walter Meier, a sea ice scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center and a longtime author of the report’s sea ice chapter. “NOAA has had a strong reputation for providing high quality data, high quality observations, analysis, and research,” he said. “When you have that NOAA stamp of approval, people trust in that.” 

“I’m confident that the science will be of the same high quality.”

Still, he said not much would change about the scientific content of the report once it is hosted by a new organization. “I’m confident that the science will be of the same high quality,” he said. “I don’t feel there will be any loss [of quality], which is really the most important part.”

The report being outside of NOAA’s purview also “allows much more flexibility in language,” for the authors, Thoman said. He added that creating an Arctic Report Card without NOAA may allow the report to be more internationally focused than it has been previously.

—Grace van Deelen (@gvd.bsky.social), Staff Writer

These updates are made possible through information from the scientific community. Do you have a story about how changes in law or policy are affecting scientists or research? Send us a tip at eos@agu.org. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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Forest Service to End Protection for 45 Million Acres of Forest

Tue, 08/18/2026 - 20:49
body {background-color: #D2D1D5;} Research & Developments is a blog for brief updates that provide context for the flurry of news regarding law and policy changes that impact science and scientists today.

The U.S. Forest Service has moved forward with a rule to withdraw protections from 45 million acres of pristine national forests by rescinding the 2001 Roadless Area Conservation Rule. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) first announced its intent to rescind the Roadless Rule in June 2025 and it has now taken the next step to do so.

In today’s announcement, Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins claimed that the Roadless Rule increases wildfire risk by preventing land managers from maintaining national forests.

“For too long, outdated restrictions have kept tens of millions of forested acres off-limits to the very treatments that improve forest health and reduce wildfire risk to our communities,” Rollins said in a statement. “Today, we filed a proposal to restore authority to local forest managers who know the land best, removing the barriers that have kept them from doing the work the land demands. It’s time to turn the page on the failed roadless rule and return our forests to health and productivity.”

However, this justification is not backed up by data. Research has shown that nearly 85% of wildland fires begin with human activity, either accidentally or deliberately. What’s more, human-caused fires are much more destructive than naturally-caused fires from, for example, lighting strikes. Building roads would bring more people into former wildlands, thereby increasing wildfire risk despite the increased access for maintenance, several forest experts told the New York Times.

The Trump Administration “is trying to walk away from the most successful land conservation policy in modern U.S. history.”

“The truth is that roadless forests are our greatest defense against wildfire,” David Jenkins, president of the nonprofit Conservatives for Responsible Stewardship, said in a media statement. “Not only are old growth forests naturally resistant to fire, but 90% of all wildfires in the U.S. occur within a half mile of a road. Any claims to the contrary are demonstrably false.”

Most of the inventoried roadless areas are in western states, with more than 95% located in Alaska, Arizona, California, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. However, the proposed rule does not apply to Colorado and Idaho, which have state-specific roadless regulations.

Some suspect that the administration’s true intent is not to reduce wildfire risk but to drastically increase logging production.

“The Trump administration is moving to gut our most iconic national forests by giving loggers and drillers free rein to turn them into industrial wastelands. It is trying to walk away from the most successful land conservation policy in modern U.S. history,” Andrew Wetzler, senior vice president for nature at the nonprofit Natural Resources Defense Council, said in a statement.

Jenkins added, “This is one of the most boneheaded and fiscally irresponsible actions this administration could take. The agency doesn’t have the budget to take care of the 368,000 miles of roads already riddling our national forests. In fact, there is currently a $10.8 billion maintenance backlog.”

 
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The Roadless Rule was enacted by the Clinton administration in 2001 to prevent logging and development on millions of acres of pristine forest across the country. For 25 years, this rule has protected crucial habitats for migratory species, headwaters for municipal water supplies, and old-growth forests which act as significant carbon sinks. If the rule was rescinded, those forests and the ecosystem services they provide would be at risk.

“Once we cut a road through these forests, we don’t get their values back,” Wetzler said. “The forest fragments. The streams and rivers are degraded by runoff. Iconic wildlife struggles to find suitable habitat. And we get stuck with even more roads in a vast network the agency already can’t maintain.”

The Roadless Rule itself is hugely popular, garnering around 75% public support. Nearly 626,000 public comments were submitted on the USDA’s 2025 draft proposal to eliminate the rule, with more than 99% of comments calling for the rule to stand. Former U.S. Forest Service chiefs, lawmakers, Tribal leaders, scientists, and wildland firefighters have also defended the rule.

The Forest Service’s proposal will be published in the Federal Register on 20 August, after which it will accept public comments before finalizing the rule change.

—Kimberly M. S. Cartier (@astrokimcartier.bsky.social), Staff Writer

These updates are made possible through information from the scientific community. Do you have a story about how changes in law or policy are affecting scientists or research? Send us a tip at eos@agu.org. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Drought Extremes are Intensifying More Rapidly Than in the Past

Tue, 08/18/2026 - 13:55
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: AGU Advances

Droughts are becoming an increasing global concern as their impacts intensify. Understanding how climate change affects drought frequency and severity is essential for projecting future drought risk. In this context, the question raised by Helpap et al. [2026]—”are modern droughts unprecedented?”—has a high scientific relevance. Here, 20 ensemble members from a 600-year climate simulation and reanalysis data from the period 1950-2024 are analyzed to place recent droughts in a multi-century context. It is concluded that drought extremes are intensifying more rapidly beyond the range experienced in the past than moderate droughts. Therefore, an increasing likelihood of droughts reaching unprecedented magnitudes is expected in the near future, thus highlighting the urgency for adaptation measures in water resources and environmental management.

Citation: Helpap, P., Brönnimann, S., Hand, R., Franke, J., Raible, C. C., & Stocker, B. D. (2026). Are modern droughts unprecedented? AGU Advances, 7, e2026AV002536. https://doi.org/10.1029/2026AV002536

—Alberto Montanari, Editor-in-Chief, AGU Advances

Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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Images of the aftermath of the 13 August 2026 tailings storage facility failure at the Semancor Dikwena Chrome Mine in South Africa

Tue, 08/18/2026 - 07:21

The Landslide Blog is written by Dave Petley, who is widely recognized as a world leader in the study and management of landslides.

On social media, the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, Republic of South Africa has released two aerial images of the aftermath of the 13 August 2026 tailings storage facility failure at the Semancor Dikwena Chrome Mine in South Africa.

The first shows the tailings storage facility (TSF) itself, including the loss of slimes:-

The aftermath of the TSF failure at the Samancor Dikwena Chrome Mine tailings storage facility near Brits. Image released by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources on social media.

It is interesting to note the small-scale slope failures on the tailings wall in the foreground (I’d be interested to know if this was expected as part of the design), but also the fact that this TSF has been raised above those on either side.

The second shows the breach itself:-

The aftermath of the TSF failure at the Samancor Dikwena Chrome Mine tailings storage facility near Brits. Image released by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources on social media.

I’m no expert on TSF construction, but this one has a complex history. There is a very detailed archive of images on Google Earth. So for example, this was the facility in August 2015:-

Google Earth image of the TSF that failed at the Samancor Dikwena tailings storage facility near Brits. Image from 2015.

Note that this was a single facility at that stage.

This is the same site in June 2022:-

Google Earth image of the TSF that failed at the Samancor Dikwena tailings storage facility near Brits. Image from 2022.

The eastern end of the facility (which failed) had become vegetated with little sign of human activity. There was some work going on at the western end.

If we jump to July 2025, we see the facility had been raised and subdivided, and that active deposition was occurring in both sections. The one that failed (known as 1b) was notably higher than the one to the west.

Google Earth image of the TSF that failed at the Samancor Dikwena tailings storage facility near Brits. Image from 2025.

It is good to see that Semancor has taken full responsibility for “the repair of any infrastructure and the rehabilitation of the affected area“, noting of course that the global mining industry does not have a good track record of actually delivering against such commitments.

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Scientists Define a New Category of Heat Wave: “Snow Eaters”

Mon, 08/17/2026 - 12:07

This story was originally published by Grist. Sign up for Grist’s weekly newsletter here.

Matthew LaPlante doesn’t have to go to a lab to see his research in action. On some mornings, he can just look out his own window in the mountains high above Salt Lake City. After a warm night when the temperature stays above freezing, he’ll wake up and see that the snow level has dropped by inches, revealing more of the aspens he taps for syrup.

“It feels like a monster came and just in the middle of the night, took a bite out of a snowpack.”

“It feels like a monster came and just in the middle of the night, took a bite out of a snowpack,” said LaPlante, a journalist and climate scientist at Utah State University.

So it’s fitting that scientists have started calling these kinds of heat waves, marked by unusually high temperatures in the spring and early summer, “snow eaters.”

LaPlante was part of a recent study, published in the journal Science Advances, that attempted, for the first time, to identify what conditions exactly make for a “snow eater.” Compared to normal warm spells or heat waves, the researchers determined that these events happen when temperatures stay above freezing through both day and night for multiple days, typically three to five. These events can roughly double the rate at which snow melts, causing flooding and making it challenging to manage water resources.

“Snow eaters” appear to be occurring earlier in the year and becoming more widespread in the Western United States as the climate warms. Since the 1850s, the study found, the area affected by snow eaters has increased by an average of about 40,000 square miles per century, and the first snow eater of the season has been arriving about one month earlier per century.

The term “snow eater” has a murky history. By at least the 1880s, people in the West were talking about “snow-eating” chinooks, warm mountain winds that make snow disappear quickly. More recently, the phrase “snow-eater heat wave” first made headlines in March, when an early heat wave enveloped much of the West, quickly wiping away snowpack in the Colorado Rockies and California’s Sierra Nevada. The scientists hope the catchy, evocative term can help draw more attention to this type of heat wave, since there’s still a lot to learn. The study only looked at the Western U.S., but snow eater heat waves almost assuredly occur elsewhere, LaPlante said.

Solar radiation is a major, but sometimes overlooked, driver of snowmelt, said Noah Molotch, a professor of geography at the University of Colorado Boulder who was not involved in the new study. When it interacts with heat waves, those impacts are amplified. As snow crystals warm up, they lose some of their structure and light-reflecting abilities, causing snowpacks to absorb more sunlight and melt faster. “It’s a little bit of a—no pun intended—a snowball effect,” he said.

Much of the Western U.S. saw record-low snowpack this spring. What was really unusual about it, Molotch said, was how widespread it was. Colorado received less precipitation than normal this winter, while California got lots of precipitation, but in the form of rain instead of snow. But across the region, “the one thing in common was above-average air temperatures,” Molotch said.

These conditions have likely helped fuel exceptionally severe wildfires in the West, from Utah to Spokane, Washington, where hundreds of homes burned earlier this month. “Drought stress for mountain forests around the Western U.S. is heavily dictated by the snow that accumulates each winter and then melts through the spring and summer,” Molotch said. “There is a direct connection there in terms of the water availability and drought stress that can provide one of the important ingredients for increases in wildfire intensity and frequency.”

“At night, it used to be quiet. And now it’s not quiet, because everything’s melting all the time.”

If scientists are able to better predict what will happen to snowpack, it could help water managers plan for what’s coming. Early or rapid snowmelt poses problems for managing water resources in the West, where snowpack serves as a key source of fresh water in the drier summer months. “Water that would otherwise be stored as snow comes out early, and then we have to deal with it as a hazard instead of a resource at our reservoirs and along the rivers and streams,” said Ben Hatchett, a co-author on the study and a scientist at Colorado State University’s Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere.

Snow-eater heat waves also may pose risks to skiers, hikers, and anyone else on or near mountains. They could be linked to hazards such as avalanches, glacial collapses, and permafrost melt, Hatchett said, though scientists are still investigating those connections. He lives in the Sierra Nevada, and he’s noticed one tangible change over his lifetime: The soundscape has changed.

“At night, it used to be quiet,” he said. “And now it’s not quiet, because everything’s melting all the time.”

—Katie Yoder (@katemyoder), Grist

This article originally appeared in Grist at https://grist.org/science/new-heat-wave-category-snow-eaters-study/.

Grist is a nonprofit, independent media organization dedicated to reporting on climate change.

The 13 August 2026 tailings storage facility failure at Dikwena Chrome in South Africa

Mon, 08/17/2026 - 06:29

A major tailings accident occurred last week in a Chrome mine at Dikwena near Brits.

On 13 August 20926, a major failure occurred in a large tailings storage facility at the Dikwena facility, owned by Samancor Chrome in the Brits area of South Africa. There are news reports from IOL and the Daily Maverick about this major accident.

The Daily Maverick article includes a video of the aftermath of the TSF failure, collected by Iaan Myburgh, showing the aftermath of the failure. This is a still from that video:-

The aftermath of the TSF failures at the Samancor Dikwena tailings storage facility near Brits. Still from a video collected by Iaan Myburgh.

The failure appears to have originated in a failure of the dam wall of one of the TSF’s at the site:-

The dam wall collapse responsible for the TSF failure at the Samancor Dikwena tailings storage facility near Brits. Still from a video collected by Iaan Myburgh.

The location of the failure appears to have been 25.65236° S, 27.85177° E [-25.65236, 27.85177]. This is a Google Earth image of the site, with the location of the breach marked, collected on 15 July 2026:-

Google Earth image highlighting the site of the dam wall collapse responsible for the TSF failure at the Samancor Dikwena tailings storage facility near Brits

It is interesting to note that this TSF does not appear to have been active in July.

On LinkedIn, Adam Thomas has posted a Sentinel-2 image of the aftermath of the failure. Peter McGough has also posted a range of images and videos.

Finally, the Daily Maverick article has an interesting interview with a tailings expert, Alastair Bovim, about this site:-

“What we believe occurred is that the original TSF was re-mined between 2019 and 2022 and then in 2022 a new facility was designed, which then started operation in 2024,” said Bovim.

He said that from 2022 to 2024, historical satellite imagery shows new dams and walls being constructed.

This event asks many questions. I wonder how many answers we’ll get.

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Antarctica Is Releasing Mercury Faster Than Ever Because of Climate Change

Fri, 08/14/2026 - 12:01
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Antarctica is 600 miles (about 1,000 kilometers) from any major city, almost entirely uninhabited, and surrounded by a cold and inhospitable ocean. It might seem like the last place to expect anthropogenic pollution. But the continent’s freezing temperatures trap airborne and marine pollutants, a situation that has historically made it a sink for contaminants such as mercury, a heavy metal that can harm human and wildlife health.

“Global mercury pollution and climate change are not independent environmental problems.”

According to a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, mercury is accumulating in Antarctica much faster thanks to increasing anthropogenic mercury emissions.

Additionally, the study found the continent’s ice cap is releasing mercury faster than ever before as Antarctic ice melts in a warming climate and frees up long-stored mercury that then flows into the surrounding ocean. Together, these processes are turning Antarctica into an active source of mercury pollution rather than a long-term storage area, the authors write.

“Climate change acts as an amplifier of mercury cycling,” Maodian Liu, an environmental scientist at Peking University in China and coauthor of the new study, wrote in an email. “Global mercury pollution and climate change are not independent environmental problems.”

Dual Pathways

Previous research has shown that mercury reaches Antarctica through the atmosphere, traveling from sources such as coal plants and mining operations to settle on Antarctic ice and the Southern Ocean. And studies have suggested that mercury accumulation has increased in some regions of Antarctica over the past 2 centuries.

But there has been little evidence to tease apart two mechanisms of mercury accumulation: atmospheric deposition from human sources and the remobilization of trapped, frozen mercury as Antarctic glaciers melt.

To further investigate, Liu and the research team analyzed 16 sediment cores collected from the continental shelf off the Antarctic Peninsula. They used a variety of chemical analyses to determine the amount and sources of mercury that was deposited in the sediment over the past 200 years.

Nearly all the sediment cores showed a significant increase in mercury accumulation since industrialization (the mid-18th century). On average, cores in the region showed a 160% increase in accumulation since industrialization, with rates accelerating particularly quickly beginning in the 1950s.

“Climate change is not only increasing the amount of glacial meltwater but is also releasing legacy mercury that was previously stored on the Antarctic Peninsula.”

Further simulations of Earth’s mercury cycle and budget showed that glacier melt has greatly increased the amount of mercury that Antarctic glaciers are releasing into the ocean: The analysis showed a 550% increase in such releases of mercury since industrialization. The research team estimated that about 56% of the mercury detected in their Antarctic Peninsula seafloor cores originated from the atmosphere; the rest likely originated from glacier melt, weathering, and erosion of Antarctic ice and sediment.

“Climate change is not only increasing the amount of glacial meltwater but is also releasing legacy mercury that was previously stored on the Antarctic Peninsula,” Liu wrote.

The fact that the study indicates changes in the transport and processing of mercury in such a remote area makes the research noteworthy, said Charles Driscoll, an environmental engineer at Syracuse University who was not involved in the new research. Similar processes are happening elsewhere in the world: In the Arctic, permafrost thaw has begun to release trapped mercury into ecosystems, and in the northeastern United States, increasingly intense storms are accelerating erosion and mobilizing nutrients and metals, including mercury, Driscoll said.

The new study adds context to other indications of a changing global mercury cycle and shows a consistent global pattern, Driscoll said.

Methylmercury Matters

Once mercury accumulates in sediment, it can transform into methylmercury, a more toxic form that more readily accumulates in living organisms. Methylmercury enters and travels through the Antarctic food web, taken up by plankton, then krill, fish, seabirds, and marine mammals.

At sufficiently high doses, methylmercury can harm animals’ neurology, behavior, growth, and reproduction, Liu wrote. And because some Antarctic krill and fish make their way into commercial fisheries, mercury pollution has the potential to affect human health, too.

Driscoll said he’d like to see more research to answer the question of how much mercury in the cold waters of the Antarctic shelf could be transformed into methylmercury; the process typically happens faster in warmer temperatures.

Liu hopes future research will determine whether the trends he and the research team noticed around the Antarctic Peninsula are representative of Antarctica as a whole.

Even if new mercury emissions from coal combustion, mining, and other human activities decrease, mercury stored in Antarctic ice will continue to be released as ice melts, meaning “environmental mercury burdens are unlikely to decline immediately in step with emission reductions,” Liu wrote.

—Grace van Deelen (@gvd.bsky.social), Staff Writer

Citation: van Deelen, G. (2026), Antarctica is releasing mercury faster than ever because of climate change, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260262. Published on 14 August 2026. Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Participation Challenges May Limit Conservation Incentive Programs

Tue, 08/11/2026 - 18:13
Editors’ Highlights are summaries of recent papers by AGU’s journal editors. Source: Community Science

As flooding becomes more frequent, nature-based solutions (NBS), such as restoring wetlands or improving soil health, can help reduce flood impacts while supporting healthy landscapes. Financial incentive programs are available to help landowners pay for these practices, yet participation remains lower than expected.

Moore et al. [2026] explore landowner perspectives of NBS to better understand potential challenges to adoption (such as policy, financial, and administrative factors), building on previous work around a FloodWise program developed by North Carolina State University and partners. Focus groups with landowners in North Carolina’s inner plain provided insights into their experiences with conservation financial assistance programs. Participants described confusing application processes, unclear program requirements, long wait times, and inconsistent technical support as major barriers.

At the same time, landowners expressed strong conservation values and offered practical ideas for improving participation, including simpler program guidance, better technical assistance, and more opportunities to learn from other landowners. By reducing these administrative hurdles, conservation programs can become more accessible and help more communities adopt nature-based approaches that strengthen resilience to flooding.

Citation: Moore, S. J., Hovis, M., Bardon, R., Cubbage, F., & Lupek, M. (2026). “Welcome to the club”: Unpacking administrative burdens in conservation incentive programs supporting natural flood resilience. Community Science, 5, e2026CSJ000191. https://doi.org/10.1029/2026CSJ000191

—Kathryn Semmens, Deputy Editor, Community Science Exchange

Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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The Under-the-Radar Creeks That Are Sweeping Carbon Out of Salt Marshes

Tue, 08/11/2026 - 12:04
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

Salt marshes are coastal wetlands that are alternately inundated and exposed by tides. These marshes, like other coastal ecosystems, are hot spots of carbon cycling.

But salt marshes sit at the complex intersection of land and marine ecosystems, and there is still uncertainty over how they cycle, store, and release carbon. One major uncertainty is how much carbon is transported by water rather than stored in marsh soils. Once transported, this carbon may be buried, used by organisms and released into the atmosphere, or exported to the ocean. But this lateral transport between salt marshes and coastal waters has largely been overlooked in research on salt marshes’ carbon storage potential.

He et al. dove into this understudied process by focusing on tidal creeks, which run high or dry out based on the state of the tides. These creeks can move water—and its dissolved components—around the landscape or out to sea, so quantifying their carbon movement is an important part of quantifying salt marshes’ carbon budgets.

The researchers installed sensors to collect data on water flow, water chemistry, and environmental parameters in a salt marsh creek in coastal Louisiana. They also collected water samples to track dissolved inorganic and organic carbon and total alkalinity.

These observations continued for 3 years, building a rare and continuous water chemistry dataset that captures daily, seasonal, and annual variability. In contrast, most studies of salt marsh carbon transport use short-term monitoring, an approach that can miss hydrological and biogeochemical changes that occur with tides, seasons, and storms.

After taking water flow into account, the team calculated how much carbon was stored or exported. They found that more dissolved organic and inorganic carbon was exported from the marsh than was stored. That net flux was driven primarily by different concentrations of carbon in falling versus rising tides. This pattern held at daily, monthly, and seasonal timescales. Lateral transport, then, can act as a dynamic control on a salt marsh’s carbon sequestration, boosting or damping it over time.

Total alkalinity also varied with the tides, suggesting that salt marshes can affect the acidity of downstream waters.

The findings suggest that the capacity of tidal streams to transport dissolved carbon out of salt marshes could be larger than that of sediment burial, making lateral carbon transport in tidal creeks a major overlooked component of coastal carbon models and blue carbon assessments.

Quantifying lateral carbon transport in more salt marshes will improve those assessments’ accuracy and deepen our understanding of the role salt marshes play in the global carbon budget, the authors say. (Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026JG009760, 2026)

—Rebecca Dzombak, Science Writer

Citation: Dzombak, R. (2026), The under-the-radar creeks that are sweeping carbon out of salt marshes, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260261. Published on 11 August 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

The 4 July 2026 landslide disaster at Cantzama in Ecuador

Tue, 08/11/2026 - 07:44

On 4 July 2026, 19 people were killed in a massive landslide in Zamora Chinchipe province, Ecuador. Planet Labs imagery shows that this was caused by a c.1 km long landslide that occurred 13 km upstream of Cantzama. This transitioned into a channelised debris flow that destroyed the community.

On 4 July 2026, a massive landslide swept through Cantzama in Zamora Chinchipe province, Ecuador. News reports indicate that 19 people were killed and around 50 houses were destroyed or damaged. As is often the case with disasters of this type in places like Ecuador, this event garnered little press coverage in the west, but it is quite significant event.

There is some Youtube drone footage of the aftermath of the disaster:-

Fundacion Pachamama has quite a detailed analysis of the event, compile using radar imagery, which describes a large, long run out debris flow / mudflow event. They were unable to pinpoint a cause of the flow, but I think Planet Labs optical imagery allows us to diagnose what happened.

The location of the most seriously damaged parts of Cantzama is 3.85480° S, 78.89506° W [-3.85480, -78.89506]. This is a Google Earth view of that site, with the village in the foreground and the tributary valley down which the landslide flowed in the background:-

Google Earth image of Cantzama in Ecuador.

This is a Planet Labs image, dated 5 July 2026, showing the aftermath of the landslide. The path of the flow is very clear, as is the damage to a range of buildings around the channel:-

Planet Labs image of Cantzama in Ecuador, overlain into Google Earth, showing the aftermath of the landslide. Image copyright Planet Labs, used with permission, collected on 5 July 2026.

If we go upstream from Cantzama we reach this point:-

Planet Labs image of the area upstream of Cantzama in Ecuador, overlain into Google Earth, showing the landslide that triggered the catastrophic debris flow. Image copyright Planet Labs, used with permission, collected on 5 July 2026.

The location of the crown of this major landslide is 3.88474° S, 79.00312° W [-3.88474, -79.00312]. The initial failure of the landslide is about 1 km long and 300 m wide. This major failure has transitioned into a channelised debris flow – the linear distance to the Cantzama is about 13.5 km – this is an extremely long runout event. It appears that the landslide has entrained a significant amount of sediment from the channel, leading to an extremely damaging flow.

As such this is an unusual landslide. There is another interesting and intriguing aspect. The image below, collected on 04 December 2025, shows the area around the main failure of the landslide. The marker shows the location of the crown of the 4 July 2026 landslide:-

Planet Labs image of the site of the Cantzama landslide in Ecuador, overlain into Google Earth, showing the multiple shallow failurses at the site of the landslide that triggered the catastrophic debris flow. Image copyright Planet Labs, used with permission, collected on 5 July 2026.

There is a host of shallow failures across the hillslopes, which appear to have been triggered between 22 June 2025 and 08 August 2025. Presumably this was a response to a heavy rainfall event. Note that the site of the 4 July 2026 landslide had suffered a substantial failure in this earlier rainfall event.

Is it possible that this 2025 rainfall event destabilised the slope, creating a situation in which it then destabilised in the next major rainstorm? It would be interesting to look at the InSAR data for this slope.

As for Cantzama, there is a proposal to relocate the population located close to the channels, redesignating the site for tourism. That is probably wise.

Acknowledgement

Many thanks to Planet Labs for making the imagery available to me.

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
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Government Pulls Funding for the Arctic Report Card

Mon, 08/10/2026 - 23:30
body {background-color: #D2D1D5;} Research & Developments is a blog for brief updates that provide context for the flurry of news regarding law and policy changes that impact science and scientists today.

11 August: This article was updated to include comments from Kim Doster, Rick Thoman, and Melody Brown Burkins.

The Trump administration is pulling funding from NOAA’s Arctic Report Card, an annual, peer-reviewed report about the state of the region, which is warming more quickly than anywhere else on Earth.

Three non-NOAA editors of the Arctic Report Card learned of the news in a regular biweekly meeting with staff from the Arctic Research Program, part of the Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Arctic Research Program, which coordinates and financially supports the report, according to Rick Thoman, an Arctic scientist at the University of Alaska Fairbanks and one of the editors of the 2026 report. Afterward, Thoman informed the lead chapter authors for the 2026 report of the news.

Politico was first to report the news. The absence of federal support means that NOAA will no longer provide the report with coordinating editors nor will the agency fund the report’s web presence, summary video, external peer review, graphics, or publicity, Thoman said.

“Coordination of the 2026 Arctic Report Card will not be facilitated through NOAA,” Kim Doster, director of NOAA Communications, wrote in an email statement. “All data historically contributed by NOAA to the product will continue to be collected and will remain publicly available.”

 Related

“The loss of the Arctic Report Card would be significant not only for the scientific community, but also for decision-makers and the public,” Zack Labe, a climate scientist who has been an author of the report since 2020, told Eos via email. “Written for a broad audience and developed by more than 100 scientists from around the world, the report is an important resource for consistently documenting changes in one of the fastest warming regions on our planet. Discontinuing it would create a significant gap in our ability to track and connect these changes from year to year, with implications for people and communities around the world.”

Last year marked the 20th year of the Arctic Report Card, which is typically announced at AGU’s annual meeting in December. The report often highlights harsh realities about how climate change is affecting the Arctic.

In 2025, for example, the region’s maximum sea ice extent was the lowest observed in the 47-year satellite record. In 2024, the report’s authors described a “new regime” in which the climate is changing much more drastically and quickly than it was in the 20th century. And in 2023, summer temperatures were the warmest ever and snow cover for the North American Arctic hit an all-time low.

Scientists and members of the public decried the news on social media.

If you had detectable cancer but decided not to let the oncologist scan you — indeed if you decided not to ever mention the word "cancer" again — you would die quickly and in a lot of pain, in contrast to someone who treated the same cancer early, before it metastasized out of control.

Dr. Genevieve Guenther (she/they) (@doctorvive.bsky.social) 2026-08-10T22:17:16.602Z

Just to add–while the global climate and local cultural importance for polar peoples are the top of the fold issues here, keep an eye on another ball as well. NOAA's report would have been public. The military's report on the arctic's climate, and you bet they are researching it, will not be public

Kathleen E. Kennedy (@themedievaldrk.bsky.social) 2026-08-10T22:34:11.720Z

This is terrible news, the Arctic Report Card is an invaluable resource.

Jonathan Mingle (@jmingle.bsky.social) 2026-08-10T21:24:52.345Z

The move is the latest in a series of funding cuts and layoffs faced by the scientific community under the Trump administration. In recent months, the federal government has also attempted to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research, terminated the entire National Science Board, and proposed sweeping changes to the federal grantmaking process.

Thoman said non-NOAA editors and authors are currently scrambling to figure out two open questions. First, they’re working to determine what will happen to the 2026 Arctic Report Card, which had been planned to be finalized in about two months. Next, he said, the team wants to figure out a “sustainable way to continue [to publish the report without NOAA support] in the future.” A meeting to discuss future directions, which will include the report’s lead authors and editors, is planned for next week, he said. “We’re getting strong support within the author team of the Arctic Report Card to do what we can to find a way to make this happen.”

According to Doster, the Global Ocean Monitoring and Observing Arctic Research Program, which coordinated and financially supported the Arctic Report Card in the past, “will continue to support observations, models and products that contribute to national security, weather prediction, safety of navigation, and the economic vitality of coastal communities.”

Melody Brown Burkins, a polar scientist and director of the Institute of Arctic Studies at Dartmouth, said that the report has served as a consistent and internationally coordinated resource that plays a major role in the United States’ reputation as a credible leader in Arctic science.

“The people are still doing the science, but we’ve lost the backbone of the coordination and the dissemination. I’m actually already talking to folks about how we can recreate it, because it’s so important for how we work in the Arctic and in partnership with Arctic peoples who are experiencing these rapid changes firsthand,” said Brown Burkins, who was also the American author of this year’s Group of 7 report on critical issues facing the global Arctic. “This was just a foundational piece of knowledge that was shared widely and trusted. And to dismantle that is sad and confusing.”

—Emily Gardner (@emfurd.bsky.social), Deputy Editor, and Grace van Deelen (@gvd.bsky.social), Staff Writer

These updates are made possible through information from the scientific community. Do you have a story about how changes in law or policy are affecting scientists or research? Send us a tip at eos@agu.org. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Magnitude 7.4 Earthquake Hits Colombia, Latest on the Ring of Fire

Mon, 08/10/2026 - 16:36
body {background-color: #D2D1D5;} Research & Developments is a blog for brief updates that provide context for the flurry of news that impacts science and scientists today.

Western Colombia was struck by a magnitude 7.4 earthquake this morning at 7:34 a.m. local time. The epicenter was near San Jose Del Palmar in the region of Chocó, about 280 kilometers (173 miles) west of the capital of Bogota. It was followed by a magnitude 4.8 aftershock at 8:18 a.m. local time and a magnitude 3.8 aftershock at 10:01 a.m. local time.

The earthquake was the result of a strike-slip faulting of the Nazca plate beneath the South American plate, at the intermediate depth of about 110 kilometers (68 miles), the U.S. Geological Survey reported.

 Related

Julio Fierro Morales, general director of the Colombian Geological Survey, said in a statement that shaking was also felt in Venezuela, Ecuador, and Panama, and that this was the strongest earthquake recorded in Colombia in the last decade. The Colombian Maritime Authority reported that there is no associated threat of a tsunami.

As of 12:24 p.m. ET, the death toll was at least 47, with 18 deaths in the town of Pereira, three in Manizales, and one in Buenaventura, according to The Guardian. The USGS issued an orange alert, indicating that “significant casualties and damage are likely and the disaster is potentially widespread. Past orange alerts have required a regional or national level response.”

Nubia Carolina Córdoba-Curi, governor of the department of Chocó, reported that the department’s capital city of Quibdó has experienced injuries and severe damage to buildings. Buildings have collapsed in the cities of Cali, Manizales, and Pereira—including Pereira’s passenger airport terminal.

Un terremoto de magnitud 6.6 – 7.4 sacudió a Colombia a las 7:34 a.m. de este 10 de agosto. El epicentro fue en San José del Palmar (Chocó), a 96 km de profundidad.

El temblor se sintió con fuerza en Bogotá, Medellín, Cali y Bucaramanga, generando evacuaciones preventivas. Las… pic.twitter.com/Ra8k6jKzsF

— Jhannely González | Periodista (@gazareportes_ve) August 10, 2026

According to the USGS, the region does not typically experience earthquakes exceeding magnitude 7; only two earthquakes of magnitude 7 or larger have occurred within 250 kilometers of this earthquake since 1950.

The quake is the latest along the Pacific Ring of Fire, a tectonic belt surrounding most of the Pacific Ocean where the vast majority of the world’s earthquakes occur. Two days earlier, Alaska, also along the Ring of Fire, experienced a 5.6 magnitude earthquake. In June, thousands died when Venezuela was hit by a magnitude 7.2 foreshock, followed almost immediately by a magnitude 7.5 mainshock.

—Emily Gardner (@emfurd.bsky.social), Deputy Editor

These updates are made possible through information from the scientific community. Do you have a story about science or scientists? Send us a tip at eos@agu.org. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Many Americans Underestimate Health Risks of Extreme Weather, New Study Finds

Mon, 08/10/2026 - 10:52
Source: GeoHealth

A changing climate increases the health risks posed by extreme weather. However, according to the 2024 Yale Climate Opinion Maps, only 47% of U.S. survey participants believed that global warming would harm them personally.

Poor risk communication can leave affected populations underprepared to face the health dangers that can accompany extreme heat and cold, flooding, wildfire smoke, and severe drought. Manware et al. compared mortality risk estimates with public perception of climate risk to establish “risk perception gaps.” They found that a belief in anthropogenic climate change was associated with smaller gaps between perceived and actual risk, suggesting that a greater public understanding of climate change could help communities better prepare for the health effects that come alongside extreme weather.

Researchers used climate risk perception data from the 2024 Yale Climate Opinion Maps, which are derived from 31 nationally representative surveys of nearly 35,000 participants, with demographic and political information estimated to predict county-level opinions. The study defined climate risk perception as the percentage of adults in each county who believe that global warming will directly harm them.

Then, by comparing climate risk perception with estimates of mortality caused by wildfire smoke, flooding, drought, and extreme temperatures, the researchers identified where the greatest risk perception gaps exist. Accounting for differences in age, income, education, racial demographics, and location, researchers then built a statistical model to examine the relationship between this perception gap and awareness of climate change. The results can be viewed in a publicly available dashboard.

The percentage of adults who believed that climate change would personally harm them ranged by county from 28.5% to 60.5%, with an average of 37.7%. The gap between perceived and actual risk varied across the country and by hazard, but it was generally smaller in counties where more residents agreed that “global warming is happening.”

Residents in the midwestern and northern United States showed an underawareness of the health risks of wildfire smoke and flooding, and residents in the western and southern United States showed an underawareness of drought. The study suggested that the same regions with higher risk perception gaps show higher climate-related mortality rates. Improving public awareness and understanding of climate change may help communities better prepare for the health risks associated with extreme weather, the researchers suggest. (GeoHealth, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GH001782, 2026)

—Rebecca Owen (@beccapox.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Owen, R. (2026), Many Americans underestimate health risks of extreme weather, new study finds, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260259. Published on 10 August 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

The July 2005 rainfall-induced landslides in Yangshan (the Yang Mountains) in China

Mon, 08/10/2026 - 07:03

Extreme rainfall in July 2025 triggered numerous landslides and debris flows that killed over 60 people.

Between 23 and 29 July 2025, the Yanshan (Yan Mountain) [41.0, 120.0] area of Hebei Province in China suffered extreme rainfall that triggered extensive flooding and landslides. As is so often the case in China, I found it difficult to get good information about this event at the time, but a good new paper (Xie et al. 2026) in the journal Landslides has provided a detailed review of this event. The paper is behind a paywall, but at the time of writing this link should give readers access.

Xie et al. (2026) have analysed the rinfall that triggered these landsldies, conckuding that it was in the order of 549.6 mm – a very substantial total. Daily rainfall totals were as high as 285.1 mm.

This rainfall triggered multiple shallow landslides and debris flows, causing over 60 fatalities. Xie et al. (2026) provide some detailed examples, one of which is at the Xiaomiaohougou catchment in Yangjiatai Village, Xinglong County. This is located at [40.37591, 117.24141]. The Planet Labs image below, collected on 22 June 2025, shows the site:-

Satellite image image of part of the area in Yanghshan, Hebei, China affected by the July 2026 landslides. Image copyright Planet Labs, used with permission, collected on 22 June 2025.

This is the same area of Yangshan after the rainfall and landslides:-

Satellite image of the aftermath in part of the area in Yanghshan, Hebei, China affected by the July 2026 landslides. Image copyright Planet Labs, used with permission, collected on 30 July 2025.

And here is an image compare:-

Image copyright Planet Labs

Xie et al. (2026) describe this site as follows:-

“The catchment exhibits steep hillslopes, high local relief, and well-developed gully systems, which promote efficient runoff concentration and rapid sediment transport during the extreme rainfall event. Field investigations indicated that sediment was primarily supplied by channel-bank failures and shallow hillslope failures, with sediment-source areas widely distributed throughout the catchment. Despite the relatively high vegetation coverage, prolonged extreme rainfall triggered rapid sediment mobilization and severe channel erosion. The resulting debris flow caused numerous fatalities and widespread damage to infrastructure.”

The multiple channelised debris flows are clear in the satellite images, as is the severe damage to the communities in the valley. This was replicated across a wide area.

Interestingly, the analyses by Xie et al. (2026) highlight the availability of large amounts of loose sediment in the Yangshan, and that “anthropogenic slope modification substantially altered sediment availability and intensified debris-flow activity under extreme rainfall conditions.” They particularly highlight the role of terracing of slopes in inducing an increase in landslide susceptibility.

Thus, they highlight the need for an increased focus on terrace modification, roadcuts and and village construction on landslide susceptibility. This is good advice application more widely, in mountain areas as we continue to see an increase in rainfall intensity associated with climate change.

Reference and acknowledgement

Xie, C., Xu, C., Yang, Z. et al. 2026. Characteristics and formation mechanisms of catastrophic geological hazards triggered by extreme rainfall in the Yanshan Mountains, China, in July 2025Landslides. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-026-02829-3.

Thanks as always to the kind people at Planet Labs for making the satellite imagery available.

Return to The Landslide Blog homepage Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Getting to Know Uranus’s “Breathing” Bow Shock

Fri, 08/07/2026 - 12:02
Source: AGU Advances

Within our solar system, Uranus is a geometric oddball. Its spin axis tilts more than 90° from its orbit, so it essentially rolls on its side through space. In contrast, Earth and other planets tilt only moderately or not at all. What’s more, the ice giant’s magnetic field is strangely offset and tilted another 60°.

These extreme asymmetries mean that the interaction between Uranus’s magnetic field and the solar wind—charged particles constantly streaming out from the Sun in all directions—is also quirky. At Earth and other planets, the boundary where the solar wind slams into the planetary magnetic field and abruptly slows to form a turbulent shock wave, known as the bow shock, is relatively stable. But at Uranus, the bow shock is highly dynamic, changing shape and size throughout each Uranian day, like the expansion and contraction of breathing lungs.

However, the precise extent and underlying drivers of the Uranian bow shock’s “breathing” have so far been unclear. Now, using advanced computer simulations and data from NASA’s Voyager 2 spacecraft, Cao et al. have quantified the specifics of these daily, repeating changes.

The researchers used a three-dimensional multifluid magnetohydrodynamic model, a tool they recently developed to explore how planets’ magnetospheres interact with the solar wind. For these simulations, they incorporated observations made by Voyager 2 in 1986 when it flew by Uranus. They ran the model under the condition of Uranus’s equinox, the part of its 84-Earth-year orbit during which the Sun is directly over the equator and the bow shock’s expansion and contraction are strongest.

The simulations revealed precisely how the bow shock of Uranus evolves in size and shape over the course of one full day. To isolate the role of planetary rotation, the researchers ran some simulations under conditions of steady, unchanging solar wind. The regular, daily pattern persisted, suggesting that rotation-driven daily reconfiguration of the magnetic field geometry, rather than solar wind changes, is primarily responsible for the breathing.

In contrast, at Earth, solar wind changes are the main driver of variability in the bow shock, with only small daily variations arising from the slight angle between Earth’s spin axis and its magnetic field.

These findings could help inform future space missions to Uranus and could aid in understanding the bow shocks of the numerous ice giant exoplanets detected throughout the galaxy. (AGU Advances, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026AV002307, 2026)

—Sarah Stanley, Science Writer

Citation: Stanley, S. (2026), Getting to know Uranus’s “breathing” bow shock, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260255. Published on 7 August 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

A Rare Look at How Life First Colonizes Cooling Lava Tubes

Fri, 08/07/2026 - 12:00

When the Tajogaite volcano erupted on the Spanish island of La Palma in 2021, it changed the local landscape almost overnight. What started as a small fissure spewing gas and volcanic ash soon grew into a massive volcanic cone. Lava flows destroyed hundreds of homes and basic infrastructure such as roads and water pipes, but they also created a natural laboratory for scientists.

Tajogaite erupted in September 2021. Credit: Eduardo Robaina/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0

As the lava cooled and slowed on the surface, molten rock continued to flow through channels under the surface. Once the eruption ceased and the lava drained out, the empty tubes remained, forming a tunnel network. Between 12 and 24 months after the eruption, a team of researchers went onto the still cooling lava tubes of La Palma to study how life gets its first foothold and colonizes these newly created environments.

Numerous studies have investigated how life takes hold on new surface lava, and mature microbial communities in lava tubes have also been studied in the past, but this is the first time the colonization process has been studied underground from the very beginning, the researchers said. It could help researchers learn more not just about terrestrial lava tubes but about those on Mars or the Moon.

This photo was taken from the interior of a lava tube formed during the eruption of Tajogaite, including white mineral deposits coating the walls. Credit: Nicasio Jiménez

“This is a unique opportunity; we are studying nature’s blank pages,” said Ana Miller, a geomicrobiologist at the Institute of Natural Resources and Agrobiology of Seville in Spain who led the study published in Environmental Microbiome.

The tubes formed by the Tajogaite eruption were sometimes tall enough for a person to walk upright through them. But the temperatures could be uncomfortably hot, even after toxic gases had dissipated and initial temperatures cooled from upward of 800°C (1472°F). In some sampling sites, air temperatures hovered at a blow-dryer hot 60°C (140°F), while rock surfaces reached 90°C (194°F).

Yet even in such inhospitable conditions, the researchers found adventurous microorganisms already dwelling in the caves and, in some cases, altering the rock.

The Lucky Few

Though these passages are underground, they aren’t entirely sealed from the outside world. In some locations, sections of the tubes collapsed, or bubbling lava created holes in the roofs of the lava flows, known as skylights. Cracks in the rock also allow rainwater to enter the caves.

These openings are entry points for the first colonizers, which are carried by wind and rain or transported by living collaborators, such as birds, rodents, insects, and even worms. The microorganisms are accompanied by a nutrient cache of decaying vegetation, feathers, and guano.

On the basis of previous studies, the researchers thought that only the highly specialized microorganisms that can extract energy from chemical reactions with minerals—known as chemolithotrophs—could survive these early stages. The results at Tajogaite, however, show this isn’t entirely true.

Researchers explore the interior of a lava tube known as “Tubo Rojo,” which formed during the Tajogaite eruption. Credit: Nicasio Jiménez

The team collected scrapings from the cave floors and walls, combining traditional laboratory cultures with advanced genetic sequencing, and found that the microbial communities were not uniform. If light or organic matter was available, opportunistic organisms prevailed, with random luck playing a role in which species made it into the caves—a process called stochastic seeding. However, the harsh interior conditions of the lava tubes decided which microorganisms survived over the long term, favoring highly specialized species adapted to extreme environments. Deep within the caves, where there is no organic input, no light, and very little humidity, only these specialists survived.

The rapidly changing environment in the caves likely also influences the colonization process. “In a newly formed tube, the rock is still cooling down,” said Francesco Sauro, a geologist at the University of Padua in Italy who wasn’t involved with the new study. “You have cracking of the lava linings on the walls, collapses, and a lot of secondary mineralization that is metastable—meaning it exists only at that specific condition of temperature and humidity.”

This close-up shot shows some of the details of the lava formations within Tubo Rojo. Credit: Octavio Fernández

In contrast to mature lava tubes that formed thousands of years ago, which present stable conditions and mature microbial communities that are in equilibrium with the environment, young ones like those in La Palma evolve rapidly. “If you go back to Tajogaite or Iceland after 2, 5, or 10 years,” Sauro said, “the community will have changed for sure.”

Leaving Their Mark

“It isn’t just a case of microbes arriving, depositing on the walls, and surviving. To survive, they must interact with the volcanic substrate.”

Using electron microscopy, the team also found that the organisms are already dissolving and creating new minerals out of the rock.

“The microscopy helps us see if the microorganisms are associated with the mineral structures,” Miller said. “It isn’t just a case of microbes arriving, depositing on the walls, and surviving. To survive, they must interact with the volcanic substrate. That activity confirms we have a community developing.”

The research team poses for a photo with their protective gear before venturing into a lava tube. Credit: Ana Miller

The researchers found that the microbes were already forming biofilms—mat-like structures that help them attach to rock. Biofilms also retain humidity, helping the microbes capture the little moisture available, along with dissolved nutrients. Subtle alterations like biofilm formation represent the very first steps of a process that, over millions of years, will eventually break the rock down to form soil, Miller said.

Mars Underground

Lava tubes like the ones created in La Palma are common features in volcanic environments both on and off Earth. These subsurface structures are considered a possible last redoubt for life on Mars, if it ever existed.

Researchers believe that these features captured by the High Resolution Stereo Camera aboard the European Space Agency’s Mars Express are lava tubes. Credit: ESA/DLR/FU Berlin (G. Neukum), CC BY-SA 3.0 IGO

One of the main controversies surrounding the idea of life in Martian lava tubes, however, is that most of the tubes that exist today formed after the planetary shift that ended habitable surface conditions on Mars roughly 3.8 billion years ago. This timing casts doubt on whether life ever had the chance to colonize them, Sauro said.

However, the larger picture is that lava tubes never stopped forming on Mars, at least throughout the first half of its history. “They were forming 4 billion years ago, and then through up to 2 billion years ago while volcanism was still active,” Sauro said.

In this way, Martian lava tubes could provide temporary “houses” that life could colonize one after the other, Sauro said. The fact that on Earth this colonization is extremely quick—not taking decades, but happening as soon as the temperature drops below a certain threshold—suggests that even young Martian lava tubes could have been rapidly colonized by surviving bacteria, Sauro said. “As soon as the lava tube is below a certain temperature and there is availability of liquid water, then it’s done.”

—Javier Barbuzano (@javibar.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: Barbuzano, J. (2026), A rare look at how life first colonizes cooling lava tubes, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260253. Published on 7 August 2026. Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Super-Earths May Be Solid Deep Inside Their Mantles

Thu, 08/06/2026 - 13:26
Source: AGU Advances

Deep inside super-Earths—rocky planets with a mass anywhere between 1 and 10 times that of Earth—high pressure can cause familiar minerals to take forms that are rarely seen on Earth. Understanding more about the temperature and pressure conditions under which these phases are reached could help researchers learn more about how planets evolve.

One such mineral is magnesium orthosilicate, or Mg2SiO4, one of the major building blocks of rocky planets. As pressure increases deep inside a planet, the atoms in this mineral rearrange into different crystal structures. One of these high-pressure forms is called the spinel phase, which is found in Earth’s mantle. At even higher pressures, this phase breaks down into two different minerals: bridgmanite, the most abundant mineral phase in Earth, and ferropericlase, a magnesium-rich oxide. However, under the far more extreme pressures expected inside massive rocky planets known as super-Earths, Mg2SiO4 becomes stable again in an entirely new crystal structure called post-post-spinel. Scientists predict that this ultrahigh-pressure phase of Mg2SiO4 is one of the dominant minerals in the deep mantles of super-Earths, making its melting behavior important for understanding how these planets form and evolve.

Re-creating the high temperatures and extraordinary pressures inside massive rocky planets is challenging in the lab, so Zheng et al. took a computational approach. The team used a technique called thermodynamic integration to study the melting curve of post-post-spinel Mg2SiO4 at up to 1,300 gigapascals of pressure.

They found that post-post-spinel Mg2SiO4 is an exceptionally refractory mineral, meaning it can withstand extremely high temperatures before melting. Depending on the pressure, it melts at between 9,780 K and 14,897 K, significantly hotter than temperatures at which related minerals melt, including bridgmanite and MgSiO3 postperovskite, the high-pressure form of bridgmanite stable near Earth’s core-mantle boundary. Even after moderate amounts of iron were added, something that likely happens to some degree in most exoplanets, the melting point for post-post-spinel Mg2SiO4 remained above the temperatures estimated for the deep mantles of most rocky planets, the authors say.

Their results indicate that many super-Earths likely have solid deep mantles, which has implications for convection deep inside rocky exoplanets, as well as for their magnetic fields, which are created by swirling molten metals in their interiors. (AGU Advances, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026AV002326, 2026)

—Nathaniel Scharping (@nathanielscharp), Science Writer

Citation: Scharping, N. (2026), Super-Earths may be solid deep inside their mantles, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260256. Published on 7 August 2026. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Fatal landslides in July 2026

Thu, 08/06/2026 - 06:31

In July 2026 I recorded 48 fatal landslides causing 413 fatalities. This year continues to be atypical in terms of the temporal pattern of fatal landslides.

This is my regular update for the number of fatal global landslides, focusing on July 2026. As usual, this data has been collected in line with the methodology described in Froude and Petley (2018) and in Petley (2012). References are listed below – please cite these articles if you use this analysis. Data presented in these updates should be treated as being provisional at this stage as I will reanalyse them prior to formal publication, and other events will emerge.

Note that this data excludes landslides triggered by earthquakes.

The headline figures are as follows:

July 2026: 100 fatal landslides causing 413 fatalities.

This is the number of landslides by month in 2026 to the end of July:-

The number of global fatal landslides in 2026 by month to the end of July.

We saw a massive uptick in fatal landslide occurrence in July 2026; indeed, this is the first time I have recorded 100 or more landslides in that month, and it is the third highest total in my dataset. This largely reflects an intense start to the South Asian Summer Monsoon.

My preferred way of presenting this data us to use the cumulative total by pentad. This graph is to pentad 42, which captures almost all of the July data (two landslides that occurred on 31 July 2026 are not included):-

The cumulative total number of global fatal landslides in 2026 by pentad to the end of July.

The steepening of the curve that is associated with the Northern Hemisphere rainy season is evident. 2026 continues to run a long way above the long term mean, and very close to the record year of 2024, even though the monthly pattern is markedly different.

It will be interesting to see what August 2026 brings.

References

Froude, M. and Petley, D.N. 2018.  Global fatal landslide occurrence from 2004 to 2016.  Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 18, 2161-2181.

Petley, D.N. 2012. Global patterns of loss of life from landslidesGeology 40 (10), 927-930.

Text © 2026. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

Climate Change Made This Summer’s Canadian Wildfires Twice as Likely

Thu, 08/06/2026 - 04:01
body {background-color: #D2D1D5;} Research & Developments is a blog for brief updates that provide context for the flurry of news that impacts science and scientists today.

Wildfires in the Canadian provinces of Ontario and the Northwest Territories have burned more than 3.9 million hectares this summer, prompted widespread evacuation orders, and created poor air quality for not only Canadians, but more than 120 million people across the midwestern and northeastern United States. The fires spread exceptionally quickly, stressing the resources of local response agencies. About 700 fires are still active across Canada.

 “The impacts of climate change are very real, and we can quantify what those are and the extent to which they have become more serious.”

According to a new analysis, human-induced climate change and its contribution to fire conditions across Canada made these fires twice as likely to occur. The report is from World Weather Attribution, an international climate science partnership. 

The analysis is an attribution study, which determines the extent to which climate change is responsible for a specific extreme weather event. Current science is best at determining climate change’s role in driving extreme temperatures and precipitation events, but wildfires are more difficult to attribute to climate change due to the many factors that drive their occurrence. Still, scientists’ attribution methods have greatly improved over the past decade, according to a recent report

“The impacts of climate change are very real, and we can quantify what those are and the extent to which they have become more serious,” said Theodore Keeping, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and coauthor of the new report.

Detected fire activity in Canada from 1-18 July, 2026. Study regions for the new World Weather Attribution analysis are represented by the two boxes overlaying the Northwest Territories and Ontario. Credit: World Weather Attribution

To determine the role of climate change in driving this summer’s Canadian wildfires, the research team analyzed the so-called Daily Severity Rating (DSR), a measure of fire weather that reflects how difficult it is to suppress a fire once it ignites. Using climate models, the team tested the likelihood that similar DSRs to those present in Ontario and the Northwest Territories this summer would occur in a hypothetical world without human-caused climate change.

Researchers determined that the sustained, severe DSRs present in Ontario and the Northwest Territories in July were made about twice as likely by climate change. The worst of the fire weather, a particularly high-DSR week in the Northwest Territories, was made about 27 times more likely by climate change, according to the researchers. 

However, such fire weather is “no longer rare in today’s climate,” the authors wrote. In a world without human-caused climate change, similar extreme fire events would have been expected about every 40 years. In our warming world, though, such fires are expected to occur every 2-6 years in the Northwest Territories and every 6-15 years in Ontario. 

Though a doubling of the likelihood of extreme fires may sound small, “a small change makes a huge difference for an ecosystem and a community,” said Frederike Otto, scientific lead of WWA and coauthor of the new report, in a press conference. The Canadian fires, she said, are “incredibly hard to suppress with the available people power and available technology. Even if [things get] just a little bit worse, it would mean that everything is stretched further.” 

Frequent Fires, Vulnerable People

The increasing occurrence of destructive fires means some communities are facing displacement repeatedly, especially as the last three fire seasons in Canada have been “exceptionally severe,” the authors wrote. 

Repeated extreme fire events make it difficult for communities to recover, and Indigenous communities are particularly vulnerable because they’re overrepresented in fire-prone areas. One 2024 study, for example, found that though Indigenous communities are only about 5% of Canada’s population, they made up 42% of its wildfire evacuations between 1980 and 2021. Fires in Ontario this summer have put thirteen First Nations communities under evacuation orders.

 
Related

“Repeated displacement can disrupt cultural practices of Indigenous communities, as well as access to hunting grounds and traditional food,” said Chris Boyer, technical advisor and climate scientist at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre and coauthor of the new analysis, in a press conference. “Some of these communities are also dealing with the shortened response and recovery times between disasters due to the recent successive wildfires affecting longer-term resilience.”

“If you care about anyone but the super-rich, you have to stop burning fossil fuels,” Otto said. “The most vulnerable are hit hardest.”

—Grace van Deelen (@gvd.bsky.social), Staff Writer

These updates are made possible through information from the scientific community. Do you have a story about science or scientists? Send us a tip at eos@agu.org. Text © 2026. AGU. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

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